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Local
carrier (a) PSDN IXC POT IXC
Usage
l Overall demand for an application
Does
Doesthe
themodel
modelwork
workbetter
better
But no stability or forecasting tests
than
thanalternatives?
alternatives?
Time varying coefficients? IsIsthe
themarket
marketchanging,
changing,
are
arenewnewservices
servicesgetting
gettingmore
more
acceptable,
acceptable,isisquality
qualitybecoming
becoming
more
moreimportant?
important?
Robert Fildes, IIF & Lancaster Centre for Forecasting
Stable
Stable Markets
Markets Disaggregate
Disaggregate
Evaluation:
Evaluation:
Despite
Despitetheir
theiruse
usefor
forforecasting
forecasting
Dynamics
Dynamicsof ofchange
changenot
nottaken
takeninto
intoaccount
account
No
Noforecasting
forecastingevaluation
evaluation
Robert Fildes, IIF & Lancaster Centre for Forecasting
New
New Products
Products && Services
Services
Adopters
at T-1
Leavers Switchers
Adopters & Adopters First generation
Users at T at T Up to T
Exit
Switchers Leavers
Adopters & Adopters &
Exit Both generations,
Users at T+1 Users at T+1 Exit
Competition
160
140
120
100
1st Gen'ion
1st Gen'ion
80 2nd Gen'ion
TOTAL
60
40
20
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Period
Business Personal
Subscribers Subscribers
Small Income > 30K Attending College Not attending Income < 20K Not retired Retired
Large
Service
Step:
1. Identify the most important services (in terms of load in bits per
second on the network).
2. Segment the population, e.g business and consumer, high and low
intensity users.
3. Using ideas of a time budget (the number of hours a day available
for telecoms related use) estimate the services each segment might
use, by service, and the level of usage.
4. Model the changes in the segments over time.
5. Obtain total traffic by aggregating the individual forecasts of the
usage profiles.
Simultaneous Sequential
?
?
ADSL ISDN2
Usage models
Robert Fildes, IIF & Lancaster Centre for Forecasting
Choice
Choice Models
Models -- segmenting
segmenting consumers
consumers
and
and forecasting
forecasting each
each segment
segment
Used in stable & growth markets
Problems
6 sample size in small populations
6dynamics
how do the parameters change over the planning horizon
6price dependency
measurement (quality)
projected behaviour
Robert Fildes, IIF & Lancaster Centre for Forecasting
The
The Bass
Bass Model:
Model: basic
basic segmentation
segmentation
Two types of people:
Innovators
They adopt because of their
attitude to technology
Imitators 20
Gompertz
They adopt when exposed to 18
16
consumers who have adopted 14
already 12
10
4 Logistic
2
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57
Red:
Red:adopters
adopters
Black:
Black:potential
potentialadopters
adopters
Blue:
Blue:lacking
lackinginformation
information
Robert Fildes, IIF & Lancaster Centre for Forecasting
Estimating the Diffusion Path:
limited if any sales data
S-Shaped curve used to represent adoptions
different curves and parameters Issues:
different market potential and uptake data limitations
trajectory
market potential affected by
dependent on key parameters
product/ social factors
The Effect of Increasing Imitation in the Social System
The Effect of Increasing Innovation in the Social System
25
25
20
20
Households (Millions)
Increases Slope of the Curve
15
15
Households (millions)
10
10
5
5
0
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Modelling multinational
telecommunications demand with limited
data, Islam et al, IJF, 2002
Robert Fildes, IIF & Lancaster Centre for Forecasting
The impact of networked groups
(Bass defines a simple network)
Models
Models of
of Interacting
Interacting Individuals
Individuals
Different networks of consumers
Different adoption patterns
Connected to
Connected to near Connected at Random
your two nearest
neighbours but
neighbours
with other links
Each
Eachgroup
groupofofindividuals
individualshas
hasits
itsown
ownrules
rules
of
ofbehaviour
behaviourand
andinteraction
interaction
affected
affectedby
byits
itsenvironment
environment
Robert Fildes, IIF & Lancaster Centre for Forecasting
How
How can
can these
these Agent
Agent based
based models
models be
be used
used
(Collings,
(Collings, BTExact)
BTExact)
Examples
Financial markets
Customer relationship management
UK, Denmark
Innovation
Robert Fildes, IIF & Lancaster Centre for Forecasting
Simulation
Simulation Modelling
Modelling
system
systemdynamics
dynamicsreplicate
replicatediffusion
diffusioncurves
curves
offer
offermore
moreflexibility
flexibilityfor
forincorporating
incorporating
information
informationand
andprocesses
processes
decision
decision variables
variables
Service provider