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If P is expressed by a value of y on the y axis (standard The following steps should be taken for graphic estima-
deviations), then tion of LD50 by probit analysis.
y
y2 1. Convert response probabilities to probit units
exp
1
P= dy by a probit transformation table (see Ref. [45,
2 2
pp.5455]).
2. Convert all doses into log dose units (e.g., log10
x
( x u )2 dose = x). (Steps 1 and 2 may be eliminated if
1
= exp dx
2 2 2 probit-log graphic paper is available.)
3. Using the probit as the abscissa and log10 dose as the
ordinate, plot the response probit units against the
The solution of this equation is x = u + y or log10 dose.
4. Draw a straight line such that the vertical deviations
y=
( x u) = 1 x u (22.10)
of points (the probits) at each x value are as small as
possible. Extreme probits, for example, those out-
side the range of probits 7 and 1, carry little weight
Therefore, the probability when expressed in terms of y (the in the fitting of the probitlog doseresponse line
NED scale) is related linearly to x, the log dose. If x is plotted and thus should be excluded.
against the corresponding y, a straight line with slope=1/ 5. From the regression of the probitlog dose line,
will be obtained. To further facilitate calculation, Bliss [11] extrapolate the log dose corresponding to probit
suggested a slightly different NED unit called the probit, units of 5, which also correspond to the P = 0.5.
such that the new y value is equal to [(x u)/] + 5. This Thus, this extrapolated dose should be the median
procedure eliminates the negative values of NED when P has lethal log dose, and the LD50 value would be the
a value of less than 50%. Therefore, the probit is equal to the antilog of this log dose value.
NED plus 5. The linear relationship between probits and log 6. Calculate the slope of the probitlog dose line. This
dose is similar to the relationship between NED and log dose. slope, = 1/, is defined as the number of increases
Thus, when y = 5, from Equation 22.10 in probit units for a unit increase in log dose. The
slope defined by Litchfield and Wilcoxon [116] is
( x u) + 5 equal to
5=
1 LD84 LD50
+ =
2 LD50 LD16
and x = (i.e., the median log dose that has a probability of
response of 50%).
This slope is different but related to the slope
described here, thus the larger the slope value, the
ESTIMATION OF LD50 BY PROBIT ANALYSIS steeper the probitlog dose response. The opposite
The basic linear equation for the probit analysis as described is true in the Litchfield and Wilcoxon definition.
in the previous section is 7. An 2 test should be conducted to determine if the
fitted line is adequate. A small value of 2 statistic
1 (within the limits of random variation) may indicate
y = 5+
( x u) satisfactory agreement between the theoretically
expected line and the fitted line. A significantly large
where y is the probit ( is the standard deviation of a log- 2 statistic may indicate either that the animals do
normal distribution with mean u, and x is the log dose). not respond independently or that the fitted line (pro-
This equation is linear with respect to y and x often can be bitlog dose) does not adequately describe the dose
expressed as a linear equation, for example, y = + x, where response relationship of the test substance. If the
= 1/ = slope, and = 5 (u/). When y = 5, (x u)/ = 0; latter is true, forms of the doseresponse curve other
thus x = (the median log dose). Furthermore, y is related to than the probitlog dose linearity may exist, and fur-
P (the probability of response that has a value of 01) by the ther transformation may be needed [75]. If the former
following equation: is the case, then precision of the line is reduced.
8. Determination of precision is by weighting the coef-
y ficient. The standard deviation of a binomial dis-
1 y
P=
2 exp 2 dy
x
tribution is PQ / n , where P and Q are the mean
probabilities, P equals (1 Q), and n is the num-
ber of test subjects. Thus the variance is PQ/n, the
The reader should bear in mind that both the u and x are in square of the standard deviation. It is obvious that
log dose scale. the variance (i.e., the spread of a distribution) is
1124 Hayes Principles and Methods of Toxicology