12/06/2017 Backing Into World War III | Foreign Policy

ARGUMENT

BackingIntoWorldWarIII
Americamustchecktheassertive,
risingpowersofRussiaandChina
beforeitstoolate.Accepting
spheresofinfluenceisarecipefor
disaster.
BY ROBERT KAGAN

FEBRUARY 6, 2017

Thinkoftwosignicanttrendlinesintheworldtoday.Oneisthe
24705 SHARE
increasingambitionandactivismofthetwogreatrevisionistpowers,RussiaandChina.
Theotheristhedecliningcondence,capacity,andwillofthedemocraticworld,and
especiallyoftheUnitedStates,tomaintainthedominantpositionithasheldinthe
internationalsystemsince1945.Asthosetwolinesmovecloser,asthedecliningwill
andcapacityoftheUnitedStatesanditsalliestomaintainthepresentworldordermeet
theincreasingdesireandcapacityoftherevisionistpowerstochangeit,wewillreach
themomentatwhichtheexistingordercollapsesandtheworlddescendsintoaphase
ofbrutalanarchy,asithasthreetimesinthepasttwocenturies.Thecostofthat
descent,inlivesandtreasure,inlostfreedomsandlosthope,willbestaggering.

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Americanstendtotakethefundamental
stabilityoftheinternationalorderforgranted,
Where exactly we are in this classic
evenwhilecomplainingabouttheburdenthe
scenario today, how close the trend
UnitedStatescarriesinpreservingthat
lines are to that intersection point is, as
stability.Historyshowsthatworldordersdo
always, impossible to know. Are we
collapse,however,andwhentheydoitisoften
three years away from a global crisis, or
15? unexpected,rapid,andviolent.Thelate18th
centurywasthehighpointofthe
EnlightenmentinEurope,beforethe
continentfellsuddenlyintotheabyssoftheNapoleonicWars.Intherstdecadeofthe
20thcentury,theworldssmartestmindspredictedanendtogreat-powerconictas
revolutionsincommunicationandtransportationkniteconomiesandpeoplecloser
together.Themostdevastatingwarinhistorycamefouryearslater.Theapparentcalm
ofthepostwar1920sbecamethecrisis-ridden1930sandthenanotherworldwar.Where
exactlyweareinthisclassicscenariotoday,howclosethetrendlinesaretothat
intersectionpointis,asalways,impossibletoknow.Arewethreeyearsawayfroma
globalcrisis,or15?Thatwearesomewhereonthatpath,however,isunmistakable.

AndwhileitistoosoontoknowwhateectDonaldTrumpspresidencywillhaveon
thesetrends,earlysignssuggestthatthenewadministrationismorelikelytohastenus
towardcrisisthansloworreversethesetrends.ThefurtheraccommodationofRussia
canonlyemboldenVladimirPutin,andthetoughtalkwithChinawilllikelyleadBeijing
totestthenewadministrationsresolvemilitarily.Whetherthepresidentisreadyfor
suchaconfrontationisentirelyunclear.Forthemoment,heseemsnottohavethought
muchaboutthefutureramicationsofhisrhetoricandhisactions.

ChinaandRussiaareclassicrevisionistpowers.Althoughbothhaveneverenjoyed
greatersecurityfromforeignpowersthantheydotodayRussiafromitstraditional
enemiestothewest,Chinafromitstraditionalenemyintheeasttheyaredissatised
withthecurrentglobalcongurationofpower.Bothseektorestorethehegemonic
dominancetheyonceenjoyedintheirrespectiveregions.ForChina,thatmeans
dominanceofEastAsia,withcountrieslikeJapan,SouthKorea,andthenationsof
SoutheastAsiabothacquiescingtoBeijingswillandactinginconformitywithChinas
strategic,economic,andpoliticalpreferences.ThatincludesAmericaninuence
withdrawntotheeasternPacic,behindtheHawaiianIslands.ForRussia,itmeans
hegemonicinuenceinCentralandEasternEuropeandCentralAsia,whichMoscow
hastraditionallyregardedaseitherpartofitsempireorpartofitssphereofinuence.

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BothBeijingandMoscowseektoredresswhattheyregardasanunfairdistributionof
power,inuence,andhonorintheU.S.-ledpostwarglobalorder.Asautocracies,both
feelthreatenedbythedominantdemocraticpowersintheinternationalsystemandby
thedemocraciesontheirborders.BothregardtheUnitedStatesastheprincipal
obstacletotheirambitions,andthereforebothseektoweakentheAmerican-led
internationalsecurityorderthatstandsinthewayoftheirachievingwhattheyregardas
theirrightfuldestinies.

President Xi
Itwasgoodwhileitlasted
Jinping makes a
speech during Untilfairlyrecently,RussiaandChinahavefacedconsiderable,
the opening
ceremony of thealmostinsuperable,obstaclesinachievingtheirobjectives.Thechief
G20 Leaders obstaclehasbeenthepowerandcoherenceoftheinternationalorder
Summit as
President itselfanditsprincipalpromoteranddefender.TheAmerican-led
Barack Obama,
left, and systemofpoliticalandmilitaryalliances,especiallyinthetwocritical
President regionsofEuropeandEastAsia,haspresentedChinaandRussiawith
Vladimir Putin,
right, listen on whatDeanAchesononcereferredtoassituationsofstrengththat
Sept. 4, 2016 in
Hangzhou, haverequiredthemtopursuetheirambitionscautiouslyand,since
China. (Photo theendoftheColdWar,todeferseriouseortstodisruptthe
credit: NICOLAS
ASFOURI - internationalsystem.
Pool/Getty
Images) Thesystemhascheckedtheirambitionsinbothpositiveandnegative
ways.DuringtheeraofAmericanprimacy,ChinaandRussiahave

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participatedinandforthemostpartbeen
beneciariesoftheopeninternational
During the era of American primacy,
economicsystemtheUnitedStatescreated
China and Russia have participated in
andhelpssustain;solongasthatsystem
and for the most part been beneciaries
functions,theyhavehadmoretogainby
of the open international economic
playinginitthanbychallengingand
system the United States created and
helps sustain; so long as that system overturningit.Thepoliticalandstrategic

functions, they have had more to gain aspectsoftheorder,however,haveworkedto

by playing in it than by challenging and theirdetriment.Thegrowthandvibrancyof
overturning it. democraticgovernmentinthetwodecades
followingthecollapseofSovietcommunism
posedacontinualthreattotheabilityofrulers
inBeijingandMoscowtomaintaincontrol,andsincetheendoftheColdWartheyhave
regardedeveryadvanceofdemocraticinstitutionsespeciallythegeographical
advanceofliberaldemocraciesclosetotheirbordersasanexistentialthreat.Thats
forgoodreason:AutocraticpowerssincethedaysofKlemensvonMetternichhave
alwaysfearedthecontagionofliberalism.Themereexistenceofdemocraciesontheir
borders,theglobalfreeowofinformationtheycannotcontrol,thedangerous
connectionbetweenfreemarketcapitalismandpoliticalfreedomallposeathreatto
rulerswhodependonkeepingrestiveforcesintheirowncountriesincheck.The
continualchallengetothelegitimacyoftheirruleposedbytheU.S.-supported
democraticorderhasthereforenaturallymadethemhostilebothtothatorderandto
theUnitedStates.But,untilrecently,apreponderanceofdomesticandinternational
forceshasdissuadedthemfromconfrontingtheorderdirectly.Chineserulershavehad
toworryaboutwhatanunsuccessfulconfrontationwiththeUnitedStatesmightdoto
theirlegitimacyathome.EvenPutinhaspushedonlyagainstopendoors,asinSyria,
wheretheUnitedStatesrespondedpassivelytohisprobes.Hehasbeenmorecautious
whenconfrontedbyevenmarginalU.S.andEuropeanopposition,asinUkraine.

READ MORE ThegreatestcheckonChineseandRussianambitionshasbeenthe

militaryandeconomicpoweroftheUnitedStatesanditsalliesinEurope
Trumps Grand
Strategic Train andAsia.China,althoughincreasinglypowerful,hashadtocontemplate
Wreck facingthecombinedmilitaryandeconomicstrengthoftheworlds
CLICK HERE
superpowerandsomeveryformidableregionalpowerslinkedbyalliance

How Trump orcommonstrategicinterestincludingJapan,India,andSouthKorea,
Can Win With
China aswellassmallerbutstillpotentnationslikeVietnamandAustralia.
CLICK HERE
Trump Has

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Trump Has
RussiahashadtofacetheUnitedStatesanditsNATOallies.When
Already Blown
It united,theseU.S.-ledalliancespresentadauntingchallengetoa
CLICK HERE
revisionistpowerthatcancallonfewalliesofitsownforassistance.

EvenweretheChinesetoscoreanearlyvictoryinaconict,suchasthe
militarysubjectionofTaiwanoranavalbattleintheSouthorEastChinaSea,they
wouldhavetocontendovertimewiththecombinedindustrialproductivecapacitiesof
someoftheworldsrichestandmosttechnologicallyadvancednationsandthelikely
cutoofaccesstoforeignmarketsonwhichtheirowneconomydepends.Aweaker
Russia,withitsdepletedpopulationandoil-andgas-dependenteconomy,wouldface
anevengreaterchallenge.

Fordecades,thestrongglobalpositionenjoyedbytheUnitedStatesanditsallieshas
discouragedanyseriouschallenge.SolongastheUnitedStateswasperceivedasa
dependableally,ChineseandRussianleadersfearedthataggressivemoveswould
backreandpossiblybringtheirregimesdown.Thisiswhatthepoliticalscientist
WilliamWohlforthoncedescribedastheinherentstabilityoftheunipolarorder:As
dissatisedregionalpowerssoughttochallengethestatusquo,theiralarmedneighbors
turnedtothedistantAmericansuperpowertocontaintheirambitions.Anditworked.
TheUnitedStatessteppedup,andRussiaandChinalargelybackeddownorwere
preemptedbeforeactingatall.

Facedwiththeseobstacles,thebestoptionforthetworevisionistgreatpowershas
alwaysbeentohopeforor,ifpossible,engineeraweakeningoftheU.S.-supportedworld
orderfromwithin,eitherbyseparatingtheUnitedStatesfromitsalliesorbyraising
doubtsabouttheU.S.commitmentandtherebyencouragingwould-bealliesand
partnerstoforgothestrategicprotectionoftheliberalworldorderandseek
accommodationwithitschallengers.

ThepresentsystemhasthereforedependednotonlyonAmericanpowerbuton
coherenceandunityattheheartofthedemocraticworld.TheUnitedStateshashadto
playitspartastheprincipalguarantoroftheorder,especiallyinthemilitaryand
strategicrealm,buttheordersideologicalandeconomiccorethedemocraciesof
EuropeandEastAsiaandthePacichasalsohadtoremainrelativelyhealthyand
condent.

Inrecentyears,bothpillarshavebeenshaken.Thedemocraticorderhasweakenedand
fracturedatitscore.Diculteconomicconditions,therecrudescenceofnationalism
andtribalism,weakanduncertainpoliticalleadershipandunresponsivemainstream

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politicalparties,andaneweraofcommunicationsthatseemstostrengthenratherthan
weakentribalismhavetogetherproducedacrisisofcondencenotonlyinthe
democraciesbutinwhatmightbecalledtheliberalenlightenmentproject.Thatproject
elevateduniversalprinciplesofindividualrightsandcommonhumanityoverethnic,
racial,religious,national,ortribaldierences.Itlookedtoagrowingeconomic
interdependencetocreatecommoninterestsacrossboundariesandtothe
establishmentofinternationalinstitutionstosmoothdierencesandfacilitate
cooperationamongnations.Instead,thepastdecadehasseentheriseoftribalismand
nationalism,anincreasingfocusontheOtherinallsocieties,andalossofcondencein
government,inthecapitalistsystem,andindemocracy.Wearewitnessingtheopposite
ofFrancisFukuyamasendofhistory.Historyisreturningwithavengeanceandwith
itallthedarkeraspectsofthehumansoul,including,formany,theperennialhuman
yearningforastrongleadertoprovidermguidanceinatimeofconfusionand
incoherence.

Left: Adolf
TheDarkAges2.0
Hitler and his
staff salute Thiscrisisoftheenlightenmentprojectmayhavebeeninevitable,a
teams during
the opening recurringphenomenonproducedbyinherentawsinbothcapitalism
ceremonies of anddemocracy.Inthe1930s,economiccrisisandrisingnationalism
the XI Olympic
Games on Aug. ledmanytodoubtwhethereitherdemocracyorcapitalismwas
1, 1936 in
Berlin. (Photo preferabletoalternativessuchasfascismandcommunism.Anditis
credit: Getty nocoincidencethatthecrisisofcondenceinliberalism
Images) Right:
Former British accompaniedasimultaneousbreakdownofthestrategicorder.Then,
Prime minister
Winston thequestionwaswhethertheUnitedStatesastheoutsidepower

Churchill,

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Churchill,
wouldstepinandsaveorremakeanorderthatBritainandFrance
President
Franklin werenolongerableorwillingtosustain.Now,thequestioniswhether
Roosevelt and
USSR Secretary theUnitedStatesiswillingtocontinueupholdingtheorderthatit
General of the createdandwhichdependsentirelyonAmericanpowerorwhether
Soviet
Communist Americansarepreparedtotaketheriskiftheyevenunderstandthe
Party Joseph
Stalin pose at riskoflettingtheordercollapseintochaosandconict.
the Conference
of the Allied Thatwillingnesshasbeenindoubtforsometime,wellbeforethe
powers in Yalta,
Crimea, on Feb. electionofTrumpandevenbeforetheelectionofBarackObama.
4, 1945. (Photo
IncreasinglyinthequartercenturyaftertheendoftheColdWar,
credit:
AFP/Getty Americanshavebeenwonderingwhytheybearsuchanunusualand
Images)
outsizedresponsibilityforpreservingglobalorderwhentheirown
interestsarenotalwaysclearlyservedandwhentheUnitedStates
seemstobemakingallthesacriceswhileothersbenet.Fewrememberthereasons
whytheUnitedStatestookonthisabnormalroleafterthecalamitoustwoworldwarsof
the20thcentury.ThemillennialgenerationbornaftertheendoftheColdWarcan
hardlybeexpectedtounderstandthelastingsignicanceofthepolitical,economic,and
securitystructuresestablishedafterWorldWarII.Noraretheylikelytolearnmuch
aboutitinhighschoolandcollegetextbooksobsessedwithnotingtheevilsandfollies
ofAmericanimperialism.Boththecrisesofthersthalfofthe20thcenturyandits
solutionin1945havebeenforgotten.Asaconsequence,theAmericanpublicspatience
withthedicultiesandcostsinherentinplayingthatglobalrolehavewornthin.
Whereaspreviousunsuccessfulandcostlywars,inKoreain1950andVietnaminthe
1960sand1970s,andpreviouseconomicdownturns,suchaswiththeenergycrisisand
cripplingstagationofthemid-tolate1970s,didnothavetheeectofturning
Americansagainstglobalinvolvement,theunsuccessfulwarsinIraqandAfghanistan
andthenancialcrisisof2008have.

Obamapursuedanambivalentapproachto
globalinvolvement,buthiscorestrategywas
The Obama administration responded to
retrenchment.Inhisactionsandhis
the George W. Bush administrations
statements,hecritiquedandrepudiated
failures in Iraq and Afghanistan not by
previousAmericanstrategyandreinforceda
restoring American power and inuence
nationalmoodfavoringamuchlessactive
but by further reducing them.
roleintheworldandmuchnarrower
denitionofAmericaninterests.TheObama
administrationrespondedtotheGeorgeW.BushadministrationsfailuresinIraqand

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AfghanistannotbyrestoringAmericanpowerandinuencebutbyfurtherreducing
them.AlthoughtheadministrationpromisedtorebalanceAmericanforeignpolicyto
AsiaandthePacic,inpracticethatmeantreducingglobalcommitmentsand
accommodatingrevisionistpowersattheexpenseofalliessecurity.

TheadministrationsearlyattempttoresetrelationswithRussiastrucktherstblow
toAmericasreputationasareliableally.ComingjustaftertheRussianinvasionof
Georgia,itappearedtorewardMoscowsaggression.Theresetalsocameattheexpense
ofU.S.alliesinCentralEurope,asprogramsofmilitarycooperationwithPolandandthe
CzechRepublicwerejettisonedtoappeasetheKremlin.Thisattemptat
accommodation,moreover,camejustasRussianpolicytowardtheWestnotto
mentionPutinsrepressivepoliciestowardhisownpeoplewashardening.Farfrom
elicitingbetterbehaviorbyRussia,theresetemboldenedPutintopushharder.Then,in
2014,theWestsinadequateresponsetotheRussianinvasionofUkraineandseizureof
Crimea,thoughbetterthantheBushadministrationsanemicresponsetotheinvasion
ofGeorgia(EuropeandtheUnitedStatesatleastimposedsanctionsaftertheinvasion
ofUkraine),stillindicatedreluctanceonthepartoftheU.S.administrationtoforce
Russiabackinitsdeclaredsphereofinterest.Obama,infact,publiclyacknowledged
RussiasprivilegedpositioninUkraineevenastheUnitedStatesandEuropesoughtto
protectthatcountryssovereignty.InSyria,theadministrationpracticallyinvited
RussianinterventionthroughWashingtonspassivity,andcertainlydidnothingto
discourageit,thusreinforcingthegrowingimpressionofanAmericainretreatacross
theMiddleEast(animpressioninitiallycreatedbytheunnecessaryandunwise
withdrawalofallU.S.troopsfromIraq).SubsequentRussianactionsthatincreasedthe
refugeeowfromSyriaintoEuropealsobroughtnoAmericanresponse,despitethe
evidentdamageofthoserefugeeowstoEuropeandemocraticinstitutions.Thesignal
sentbytheObamaadministrationwasthatnoneofthiswasreallyAmericasproblem.

InEastAsia,theObamaadministrationundermineditsotherwisecommendableeorts
toassertAmericascontinuinginterestandinuence.Theso-calledpivotprovedtobe
mostlyrhetoric.Inadequateoveralldefensespendingprecludedthenecessaryincreases
inAmericasregionalmilitarypresenceinameaningfulway,andtheadministration
allowedacriticaleconomiccomponent,theTrans-PacicPartnership,todiein
Congress,chieyavictimofitsownpartysopposition.Thepivotalsosueredfromthe
generalperceptionofAmericanretreatandretrenchment,encouragedbothby
presidentialrhetoricandbyadministrationpolicies,especiallyintheMiddleEast.The
premature,unnecessary,andstrategicallycostlywithdrawalofAmericantroopsfrom

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Iraq,followedbytheaccommodatingagreementwithIranonitsnuclearprogram,and
thenbythefailuretoholdthelineonthreatstouseforceagainstSyriaspresident,was
noticedaroundtheworld.DespitetheObamaadministrationsinsistencethatAmerican
strategyshouldbegearedtowardAsia,U.S.allieshavebeenleftwonderinghowreliable
theU.S.commitmentmightbewhenfacingthechallengeposedbyChina.TheObama
administrationerredinimaginingthatitcouldretrenchgloballywhilereassuringallies
inAsiathattheUnitedStatesremainedareliablepartner.

Left: An aerial
Natureabhorsavacuum
photo taken on
Jan. 2 shows a Theeectonthetwogreatrevisionistpowers,meanwhile,hasbeento
Chinese navy
format during encouragegreatereortsatrevision.Inrecentyears,bothpowers
military drills in havebeenmoreactiveinchallengingtheorder,andonereasonhas
the South China
Sea. (Photo beenthegrowingperceptionthattheUnitedStatesislosingboththe
credit:
STR/AFP/Getty willandthecapacitytosustainit.Thepsychologicalandpolitical
Images) Right: eectofthewarsinAfghanistanandIraqintheUnitedStates,which
Ukrainian
servicemen hasbeentoweakensupportforAmericanglobalengagementacross
sitting atop
armored theboard,hasprovidedanopening.
personnel
carriers travel Itisamyth,prevalentamongliberaldemocracies,thatrevisionist
near Slavyansk
on July 11, powerscanbepaciedbyacquiescencetotheirdemands.American
2014. (Photo retrenchment,bythislogic,oughttoreducetensionsand
credit: GENYA
SAVILOV/AFP/Getty competition.Unfortunately,theoppositeismoreoftenthecase.The
Images)
moresecurerevisionistpowersfeel,themoreambitioustheyarein
seekingtochangethesystemtotheiradvantagebecausethe
resistancetochangeappearstobelessening.JustlookatbothChinaandRussia:Never

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inthepasttwocenturieshavetheyenjoyedgreatersecurityfromexternalattackthan
theydotoday.Yetbothremaindissatisedandhavebecomeincreasinglyaggressivein
pressingwhattheyperceivetobetheirgrowingadvantageinasystemwheretheUnited
Statesnolongerputsupasmuchresistanceasitusedto.

Thetwogreatpowershavediered,sofar,chieyintheirmethods.Chinahasuntilnow
beenthemorecareful,cautious,andpatientofthetwo,seekinginuenceprimarily
throughitsgreateconomiccloutandusingitsgrowingmilitarypowerchieyasa
sourceofdeterrenceandregionalintimidation.Ithasnotresortedtotheoutrightuseof
forceyet,althoughitsactionsintheSouthChinaSeaaremilitaryinnature,with
strategicobjectives.AndwhileBeijinghasbeenwaryofusingmilitaryforceuntilnow,it
wouldbeamistaketoassumeitwillcontinueshowsuchrestraintinthefuture
possiblythenearfuture.Revisionistgreatpowerswithgrowingmilitarycapabilities
invariablymakeuseofthosecapabilitieswhentheybelievethepossiblegainsoutweigh
therisksandcosts.IftheChineseperceiveAmericascommitmenttoitsalliesandits
positionintheregiontobeweakening,oritscapacitytomakegoodonthose
commitmentstobedeclining,thentheywillbemoreinclinedtoattempttousethe
powertheyareacquiringinordertoachievetheirobjectives.Asthetrendlinesdraw
closer,thisiswheretherstcrisisislikelytotakeplace.

Russiahasbeenfarmoreaggressive.IthasinvadedtwoneighboringstatesGeorgiain
2008andUkrainein2014andinbothcaseshivedosignicantportionsofthosetwo
nationssovereignterritory.GiventheintensitywithwhichtheUnitedStatesandits
allieswouldhaverespondedtosuchactionsduringthefourdecadesoftheColdWar,
theirrelativelackofaresponsemusthavesentquiteasignaltotheKremlinandto
othersaroundtheworld.MoscowthenfollowedbysendingsubstantialforcesintoSyria.
IthasuseditsdominanceofEuropeanenergymarketsasaweapon.Ithasused
cyberwarfareagainstneighboringstates.Ithasengagedinextensiveinformation
warfareonaglobalscale.

Morerecently,theRussiangovernmenthasdeployedaweaponthattheChineseeither
lackorhavesofarchosennottodeploytheabilitytointerferedirectlyinWestern
electoralprocesses,bothtoinuencetheiroutcomesandmoregenerallytodiscreditthe
democraticsystem.Russiafundsright-wingpopulistpartiesacrossEurope,includingin
France;usesitsmediaoutletstosupportfavoredcandidatesandattackothers;has
disseminatedfakenewstoinuencevoters,mostrecentlyinItalysreferendum;and
hashackedprivatecommunicationsinordertoembarrassthoseitwishestodefeat.This

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pastyear,RussiaforthersttimeemployedthispowerfulweaponagainsttheUnited
States,heavilyinterferingintheAmericanelectoralprocess.

AlthoughRussia,byanymeasure,isthe
weakerofthetwogreatpowers,ithassofar
Although Russia, by any measure, is the
hadmoresuccessthanChinain
weaker of the two great powers, it has
accomplishingitsobjectiveofdividingand
so far had more success than China in
disruptingtheWest.Itsinterferencein
accomplishing its objective of dividing
Westerndemocraticpoliticalsystems,its
and disrupting the West.
informationwarfare,anditsroleincreating
increasedrefugeeowsfromSyriainto
EuropehaveallcontributedtothesappingofEuropeanscondenceintheirpolitical
systemsandestablishedpoliticalparties.ItsmilitaryinterventioninSyria,contrasted
withAmericanpassivity,hasexacerbatedexistingdoubtsaboutAmericanstaying
powerintheregion.Beijing,untilrecently,hassucceededmostlyindrivingAmerican
alliesclosertotheUnitedStatesoutofconcernforgrowingChinesepowerbutthat
couldchangequickly,especiallyiftheUnitedStatescontinuesonitspresenttrajectory.
Therearesignsthatregionalpowersarealreadyrecalculating:EastAsiancountriesare
contemplatingregionaltradeagreementsthatneednotincludetheUnitedStatesor,in
thecaseofthePhilippines,areactivelycourtingChina,whileanumberofnationsin
EasternandCentralEuropearemovingclosertoRussia,bothstrategicallyand
ideologically.Wecouldsoonfaceasituationwherebothgreatrevisionistpowersare
actingaggressively,includingbymilitarymeans,posingextremechallengesto
Americanandglobalsecurityintworegionsatonce.

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Then-
Thedispensablenation
Republican
presidential AllthiscomesasAmericanscontinuetosignaltheirreluctanceto
candidate
Donald Trump upholdtheworldordertheycreatedafterWorldWarII.Donald
speaks during a Trumpwasnottheonlymajorpoliticalgureinthispastelection
rally at Macomb
Community seasontocallforamuchnarrowerdenitionofAmericaninterests
College on
March 4, 2016 andalesseningoftheburdensofAmericangloballeadership.
in Warren, PresidentObamaandBernieSandersbothexpressedaversionof
Michigan.
(Photo credit: AmericaFirst.ThecandidatewhospokeoftenofAmericas
SCOTT
OLSON/Getty indispensableglobalrolelost,andevenHillaryClintonfelt
Images) compelledtojettisonherearliersupportfortheTrans-Pacic
Partnership.Attheveryleast,thereshouldbedoubtsaboutthe
Americanpublicswillingnesstocontinuesupportingthe
internationalalliancestructure,denyingtherevisionistpowerstheirdesiredspheresof
inuenceandregionalhegemony,andupholdingdemocraticandfreemarketnormsin
theinternationalsystem.

Comingasitdoesatatimeofgrowinggreat-
powercompetition,thisnarrowingdenition
The weakness at the core of the
ofAmericaninterestswilllikelyhastena
democratic world and the shedding by
returntotheinstabilityandclashesof
the United States of global
previouseras.Theweaknessatthecoreofthe
responsibilities have already
democraticworldandthesheddingbythe
encouraged a more aggressive
revisionism by the dissatised powers. UnitedStatesofglobalresponsibilitieshave
alreadyencouragedamoreaggressive
revisionismbythedissatisedpowers.That,
inturn,hasfurthersappedthedemocraticworldscondenceandwillingnesstoresist.
Historysuggeststhatthisisadownwardspiralfromwhichitwillbediculttorecover,
absentaratherdramaticshiftofcoursebytheUnitedStates.

Thatshiftmaycometoolate.Itwasinthe1920s,notthe1930s,thatthedemocratic
powersmadethemostimportantandultimatelyfataldecisions.Americans
disillusionmentafterWorldWarIledthemtorejectplayingastrategicroleinpreserving
thepeaceinEuropeandAsia,eventhoughAmericawastheonlynationpowerful
enoughtoplaythatrole.ThewithdrawaloftheUnitedStateshelpedunderminethewill

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ofBritainandFranceandencouragedGermanyinEuropeandJapaninAsiatotake
increasinglyaggressiveactionstoachieveregionaldominance.MostAmericanswere
convincedthatnothingthathappenedinEuropeorAsiacouldaecttheirsecurity.It
tookWorldWarIItoconvincethemthatwasamistake.Thereturntonormalcyofthe
1920electionseemedsafeandinnocentatthetime,buttheessentiallyselshpolicies
pursuedbytheworldsstrongestpowerinthefollowingdecadehelpedsetthestagefor
thecalamitiesofthe1930s.Bythetimethecrisesbegantoerupt,itwasalreadytoolate
toavoidpayingthehighpriceofglobalconict.

Insuchtimes,ithasalwaysbeentemptingtobelievethatgeopoliticalcompetitioncan
besolvedthrougheortsatcooperationandaccommodation.Theidea,recently
proposedbyNiallFerguson,thattheworldcanberuledjointlybytheUnitedStates,
Russia,andChinaisnotanewone.Suchcondominiumshavebeenproposedand
attemptedineveryerawhenthedominantpowerorpowersintheinternationalsystem
soughttofendochallengesfromthedissatisedrevisionistpowers.Ithasrarely
worked.Revisionistgreatpowersarenoteasytosatisfyshortofcompletecapitulation.
Theirsphereofinuenceisneverquitelargeenoughtosatisfytheirprideortheir
expandingneedforsecurity.Infact,theirveryexpansioncreatesinsecurity,by
frighteningneighborsandleadingthemtobandtogetheragainsttherisingpower.The
satiatedpowerthatOttovonBismarckspokeofisrare.TheGermanleaderswho
succeededhimwerenotsatisedevenwithbeingthestrongestpowerinEurope.In
theireortstogrowstillstronger,theyproducedcoalitionsagainstthem,makingtheir
fearofencirclementaself-fulllingprophecy.

Giveemaninch,theylltakeamile
BEIJING, CHINA

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BEIJING, CHINA
Thisisacommontraitofrisingpowerstheiractionsproducethe
- OCTOBER 20:
President of the veryinsecuritytheyclaimtowanttoredress.Theyharborgrievances
Philippines
Rodrigo Duterte againsttheexistingorder(bothGermanyandJapanconsidered
and Chinese themselvesthehave-notnations),buttheirgrievancescannotbe
President Xi
Jinping review satisedsolongastheexistingorderremainsinplace.Marginal
the honor guard
as they attend a concessionisnotenough,butthepowersupholdingtheexisting
welcoming orderwillnotmakemorethanmarginalconcessionsunlesstheyare
ceremony at the
Great Hall of the compelledtobysuperiorstrength.Japan,theaggrievedhave-not
People on
October 20, nationofthe1930s,didnotsatisfyitselfbytakingManchuriain1931.
2016 in Beijing, Germany,theaggrievedvictimofVersailles,didnotsatisfyitselfby
China.
Philippine bringingtheGermansoftheSudetenlandbackintothefold.They
President
Rodrigo Duterte demandedmuchmore,andtheycouldnotpersuadethedemocratic
is on a four-day powerstogivethemwhattheywantedwithoutresortingtowar.
state visit to
China, his rst
since taking Grantingtherevisionist
power in late powersspheresofinuence
Granting
June, with the
the revisionist powers spheres
aim of isnotarecipeforpeaceand
of inuence
improving is not a recipe for peace and
tranquilitybutratheran
tranquility
bilateral
relations.
but rather an invitation to
invitationtoinevitable
(Photo by inevitable conict.
Thomas Peter- conict.Russiashistorical
Pool/Getty
Images) sphereofinuencedoesnot
endinUkraine.ItbeginsinUkraine.ItextendstotheBalticStates,to
theBalkans,andtotheheartofCentralEurope.AndwithinRussias
traditionalsphereofinuence,othernationsdonotenjoyautonomyoreven
sovereignty.TherewasnoindependentPolandundertheRussianEmpirenorunderthe
SovietUnion.ForChinatogainitsdesiredsphereofinuenceinEastAsiawillmean
that,whenitchooses,itcanclosetheregionototheUnitedStatesnotonly
militarilybutpoliticallyandeconomically,too.

Chinawill,ofcourse,inevitablyexercisegreatswayinitsownregion,aswillRussia.The
UnitedStatescannotandshouldnotpreventChinafrombeinganeconomic
powerhouse.NorshoulditwishforthecollapseofRussia.TheUnitedStatesshould
evenwelcomecompetitionofacertainkind.Greatpowerscompeteacrossmultiple
planeseconomic,ideological,andpolitical,aswellasmilitary.Competitioninmost
spheresisnecessaryandevenhealthy.Withintheliberalorder,Chinacancompete
economicallyandsuccessfullywiththeUnitedStates;Russiacanthriveinthe

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internationaleconomicorderupheldbythedemocraticsystem,evenifitisnotitself
democratic.

Butmilitaryandstrategiccompetitionisdierent.Thesecuritysituationundergirds
everythingelse.ItremainstruetodayasithassinceWorldWarIIthatonlytheUnited
Stateshasthecapacityandtheuniquegeographicaladvantagestoprovideglobal
securityandrelativestability.ThereisnostablebalanceofpowerinEuropeorAsia
withouttheUnitedStates.Andwhilewecantalkaboutsoftpowerandsmartpower,
theyhavebeenandalwayswillbeoflimitedvaluewhenconfrontingrawmilitary
power.DespitealloftheloosetalkofAmericandecline,itisinthemilitaryrealmwhere
U.S.advantagesremainclearest.Eveninothergreatpowersbackyards,theUnited
Statesretainsthecapacity,alongwithitspowerfulallies,todeterchallengestothe
securityorder.ButwithoutaU.S.willingnesstomaintainthebalanceinfar-ung
regionsoftheworld,thesystemwillbuckleundertheunrestrainedmilitary
competitionofregionalpowers.Partofthatwillingnessentailsdefensespending
commensuratewithAmericascontinuingglobalrole.

FortheUnitedStatestoacceptareturntospheresofinuencewouldnotcalmthe
internationalwaters.Itwouldmerelyreturntheworldtotheconditionitwasinatthe
endofthe19thcentury,withcompetinggreatpowersclashingoverinevitably
intersectingandoverlappingspheres.Theseunsettled,disorderedconditionsproduced
thefertilegroundforthetwodestructiveworldwarsofthersthalfofthe20thcentury.
ThecollapseoftheBritish-dominatedworldorderontheoceans,thedisruptionofthe
uneasybalanceofpowerontheEuropeancontinentasapowerfuluniedGermany
tookshape,andtheriseofJapanesepowerinEastAsiaallcontributedtoahighly
competitiveinternationalenvironmentinwhichdissatisedgreatpowerstookthe
opportunitytopursuetheirambitionsintheabsenceofanypowerorgroupofpowersto
uniteincheckingthem.Theresultwasanunprecedentedglobalcalamityanddeathon
anepicscale.IthasbeenthegreataccomplishmentoftheU.S.-ledworldorderinthe70
yearssincetheendofWorldWarIIthatthiskindofcompetitionhasbeenheldincheck
andgreatpowerconictshavebeenavoided.ItwillbemorethanashameifAmericans
weretodestroywhattheycreatedandnotbecauseitwasnolongerpossibleto
sustainbutsimplybecausetheychosetostoptrying.

RobertKaganisseniorfellowattheBrookingsInstitutionandtheauthorofTheWorld
AmericaMade.

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