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ASEAN Grocery Retail Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
The DBS Asian Insights SparX report is a deep dive look into thematic angles impacting
the longer term investment thesis for a sector, country or the region. We view this as an
ongoing conversation rather than a one off treatise on the topic, and invite feedback
from our readers, and in particular welcome follow on questions worthy of closer
examination.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 4
Online grocery retail is growing but they wont be a threat to retailers as yet 6
Online penetration for retail in Southeast Asia is small, let alone for grocery retail 6
Singapores consumers are the most digitally ready 6
Singapore has the key factors for online grocery retail to grow 7
Although online grocery retail has grown exponentially, players are unprofitable as the market is in its infancy 7
In contrast, other countries with more developed online MGR markets have profitable online players 8
Singapore will be a test bed for future ASEAN online MGR 10
We believe online grocery retail will not be a threat to retailers over the next two years. 11
Retailers will continue growing while online grocery shopping finds its feet 18
Retailers will increase their store network 18
Scale drives down costs, improves margins 18
Staff costs will reduce with handpay, self-checkouts, and cash collection technology in stores 19
Country profiles 37
Singapore 37
Indonesia 40
Malaysia 43
Thailand 46
The Philippines 49
Stock profiles 52
Dairy Farm International 53
Sheng Siong Group 61
CP All Pcl 73
Robinsons Retail Holdings 80
Pure Gold Price Club 88
Matahari Putra Prima 96
7-Eleven Malaysia 105
Bison Consolidated 112
Executive Summary
The changing face of modern grocery retail provides Industry-critical factors support growth MGR in ASEAN
opportunities for its retailers
Industry-critical factors are playing out in ASEAN. Industry-
Modern grocery retail in ASEAN continues to penetrate in critical factors of urbanisation, as well as a rising middle class
emerging markets Urbanisation and modernisation in and population in ASEAN-5, are supporting MGR penetration
developing markets are changing the way people buy their growth. The growth of MGR has outperformed that of
groceries. Developing markets, as they progress, will embrace traditional grocery retail at 1.3% vs -0.8% (CAGR) over the
modern grocery retail (MGR) even more, as evidenced by the past two years. MGR penetration is now 30% in ASEAN-5, up
increase in penetration of MGR to 30% of total grocery retail from 2015 (29.6%) and from 21.7% in 2007.
sales from 21.7% a decade ago. Modern store formats are
penetrating grocery retail beyond the traditional channels. Our differentiated view on online grocery retail in
We believe the rising middle class and each ASEAN ASEAN incentivizes larger players to grow
governments quest for economic development and progress
will help drive the growth and penetration of MGR in these Online grocery retail is not a threat but rather an opportunity
countries for a foreseeable future. to brick and mortar retailers to scale efficiently. We hold the
view that online grocery retail over the next two years will not
as well as in developed markets. By the same token, be a significant threat to ASEAN retailers. Retailers will
developed nations or cities in ASEAN which have seen a continue growing. Urbanisation and a rising middle class will
higher element of modern grocery retail is evolving as well. support proliferation of grocery retail stores. Meanwhile,
MGR in developed markets such as Singapore have seen new retailers will be incentivised to build up their scale, including
online channels and formats developing. MGR retailers are their logistical supply chains for extracting operating leverage,
competing on services, pricing, selection, and efficient as well as the potential of being taken over by an online player
backend operations to drive down costs. in the future.
Brick-and-mortar modern grocery retail in ASEAN is not dead. E-commerce will co-exist with MGR stores
While few people can consume meals at foodservice outlets
perpetually, consumers will somehow make use of the food Online grocery retail is here to stay. Even though online
retail channels, whether modern or traditional, as a source of grocery retail is still at its infancy and has several obstacles to
their food supply. Grocery retail is therefore not dead and in overcome, we expect it to gain traction. As the government
fact never will die, in our view. Consumer needs and wants continues to emphasise the use of technology in peoples daily
are ever-changing. This therefore is the cornerstone of lives and a younger generation gets increasingly tech-savvy -
modern grocery retails evolution. Modern grocery retailers online grocery retail has the potential to be a popular channel
that are able to identify areas of consumer demand will be in the future. This presents an opportunity for current brick-
the biggest beneficiaries. and-mortar grocers to jump on the bandwagon as they adapt
to evolving consumer behavior.
Consumers changing needs present opportunities for MGR
retailers. The modern grocery retail market is dynamic. Teething problems exist during online retails infancy in
Consumers needs and demands for food are ever-changing, ASEAN. Online players in Singapore remain unprofitable as
more so in a globalised world where physical and virtual challenges abound. Based on filed financial records, RedMart
connectivity are enabling consumers to be more demanding remains unprofitable compared to brick-and-mortar grocery
about food choices and at desired price points. These trends retailers because it lacks scale in both topline and cost.
provide opportunities for retailers to meet consumers Besides, shopping is very convenient in Singapore and people
expectations and, in the process, get ahead of the are still shopping in stores. The proliferation of HDB and mall
competition. Consumer sophistication, exposure to global supermarkets has driven shopping convenience. Many
products, rising wealth, and preference for healthier choices, Singaporeans do not live off the beaten path with the need
are driving demand for better food products. for delivery. Even though housing units are densely packed,
last-mile logistics is expensive and reducing delivery cost is key
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to profitable last-mile fulfillment. Fresh groceries have less Top picks are DFI, SSG, CPALL, and RRHI
disruption impact compared to non-food items in online sales
and consumers still want to choose their own food. We remain positive on the sector. The food retail sector is
generally defensive and has an attractive ROE from 10% to
Catalysts for the sector over 30%. Companies are projected to remain on a growth
trajectory, with earnings growth outpacing revenue growth in
Retailers must strive to gain scale and efficiency. With the our forecasts. We project two-year earnings CAGR of our
evolution of the sector and potential threat of online players, stock universe range from 5-21%, mainly driven by store
it is then up to brick-and-mortar grocery retailers to reduce openings and margin expansion.
operating costs to offer/deliver these food items to consumers
in a more profitable manner. We see an incentive for retailers ASEAN grocery retail is trading at >20x PE. Valuations of
to gain scale and operate efficiently. Better scale and ASEAN grocery retail stocks are not cheap at >20x
operational efficiency can boost margins, thanks to lower prospective PE, compared to global grocery retail peers.
costs, higher sales, and cashflow matrices. Operational scale Nonetheless, they offer investors defensive earnings of a non-
could offer higher product margins on bulk volumes and cyclical nature, net cash balance, cash generation capabilities,
defrayment of fixed operational/logistics costs, while earnings growth and dividend yield for selected stocks. There
efficiency could improve sales per store/square feet is also potential for some of these stocks to re-rate should
matrices/headcount, inventory and cashflow matrices. earnings outperform.
We believe larger listed companies are at the forefront to Our top picks are SSG, DFI, CPALL, RRHI. Our picks for the
grow their scale further as opposed to smaller players which sector are SSG and DFI in Singapore, CPALL in Thailand, and
lack resources to implement initiatives to gain competitive RRHI in the Philippines. Earnings growth is expected to outpace
advantage. Operating an efficient distribution chain, for revenue growth on margin expansion. Margin expansion trend
example, drives down operating expenditure and may attract for SSG is expected to continue on a shift to more fresh food
a takeover bid by online grocery players. and better supplier rebates. We expect DFIs margin to post
improvement on rationalisation of loss-making stores,
A possible takeover by internet giants await. While it remains especially in Singapore. RRHIs margin is also expected to trend
unclear why Amazon bought Wholefoods for US$13.7b, we up on price adjustments and closure of loss-making stores.
believe online retailers could be going the omni-channel route CPALL has both network and margin expansion, fuelled by
in MGR. Listed Asian companies which are well operated, with penetration in Thailand and the discontinuation of discount
some scale and efficiently-backed operations, could be coupons to big-basket customers.
potential acquisition targets of internet retailers.
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30%
Majority of consumers in Southeast Asia are not yet
digital-ready 20%
Digital consumers
who search for 10%
products online
and purchase 0%
online Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Singapore
25%
Source: Bain & Company, DBS Bank
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Close to 40% of Singapore aged 15 and above shopped Market factors for online grocery retail success
online in 2014
100% Internet and mobile penetration rates
90%
High Internet adoption, especially among young Gen-Z and
80%
Millennials, will help online MGR gain traction
70%
Population density and wealth
60%
50% Densely-populated, centrally- located urban areas enable better
40% cost efficiency for deliveries (labour and transit costs)
30% Immense growth potential in e-grocery development in areas
20% with increasingly affluent populations
10%
Consumer preference and lifestyle
0%
15 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 49 years 50 to 59 years 60 and above Desire for convenience and efficiency because of long working
Online shoppers Rest of age group hours and busy lifestyles
Source: data.gov.sg, DBS Bank Source: DBS Bank
Singapore has the key factors for online grocery retail to Although online grocery retail has grown exponentially,
grow players are unprofitable as the market is in its infancy
Factors affecting growth in online grocery penetration. We Online grocery retails share of the market projected to grow
see three key factors driving the growth of online grocery to 5% by 2020, from 3% in 2016. Euromonitor estimates
retail: 1) Internet and mobile penetration rates; 2) population that Singapores online grocery retail market was worth
density and wealth of countries; 3) consumer preferences and S$96m in 2016. Based on Singapores MGR market size of
lifestyle. S$4.3b in 2016, online grocery retails market share of total
grocery retail sales is 3%. The online grocery retail market has
A high Internet adoption and mobile penetration rate, grown at a CAGR of 38% over the past five years. According
especially among young Gen-Z and Millennials, should help to The Institute of Grocery Distributions (IGD) projection,
online grocery gain traction. Countries with high population online grocery sales is forecast to reach S$500m by 2020.
density in urban areas will enable better cost efficiency for
deliveries (especially for labour and transit costs). We believe Singapore online grocery retail market was S$96m in
there is growth potential in e-grocery development in areas 2016
with an increasingly affluent population as well. A societys
S $m Cold Storage NTUC Fairprice RedMart Sheng Siong
desire for convenience and efficiency because of long
100
working hours and busy lifestyles will also drive the increase
in online grocery retail. The Singapore market has all of the
80
above.
60
40
20
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Online grocery retail is at its infancy in Singapore. Singapores In contrast, other countries with more developed online
largest online player RedMart only started four years ago and MGR markets have profitable online players
has yet to turn in a core profit. The online business model, in
our view, is still trying to find the right balance between According to data from Kantar Worldpanel, markets with the
gaining market share and becoming profitable. Core losses as highest grocery penetration rates are South Korea, Japan,
at FY16 stood at S$51m for RedMart, based on financial France, and the UK. South Korea has clearly led the way with
records filed. high connectivity, strong digital infrastructure, and free
delivery.
Even Ocado took 15 years to break even. The UKs leading
online grocery retailer Ocado, which was founded in 2000 and
delivered groceries for Waitrose, took 15 years to break even. It
recorded 12.5m headline losses in FY13 but showed headline
profit turnaround of 7.2m in FY14, followed by 12m each
for FY15 and FY16. If not managed properly, online grocers
can fail, as seen by the examples of HomeGrocer and Webvan.
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ASEAN-5s population grew 2.2% last year We believe online grocery retail will not be a threat to
2015 2016 % chg retailers over the next two years.
Indonesia 255 258 1.2%
Philippines 100 103 3.0% Online grocery retail is here to stay Even though online
65 4.6% grocery retail is still in its infancy and has several obstacles to
Thailand 68
overcome, we expect it to gain traction. As the government
Malaysia 30 31 3.3%
continues to emphasise the use of technology in peoples daily
Singapore 5.5 5.6 1.3%
lives and thanks to an increasingly tech-savvy younger
ASEAN-5 455.5 465.6 2.2%
generation - online grocery retail has the potential to be a
Vietnam 92 95 3.3% popular channel in the future. This presents an opportunity for
Myanmar 54 57 5.6% current brick-and-mortar grocers to jump on the bandwagon
Cambodia 15.6 16 2.6% as they adapt to evolving consumer behavior.
Laos 6.8 7 2.9%
Brunei 0.42 0.44 4.8% but will take time to develop in Singapore. We maintain
East Timor 1.2 1.3 8.4% our view that online grocery retail will take time to become
Total SEA 625.52 642.34 2.7% prevalent and overtake grocery retail stores, at least in
Source: CEIC, CIA World Factbook, Singstats, DBS Bank Singapore.
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Source: RedMart ACRA filings, DBS Bank Source: Companies, DBS Bank
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RedMart has significantly higher cost structure. Our cost up grocery items whenever they want. Needless to say, those
analysis of RedMart against the three incumbent supermarket with their own private transportation can pick up grocery
operators in Singapore (NTUC Fairprice, Sheng Siong, and items wherever they are or travel convenient locations to pick
DFI) shows that due to a lack of scale, RedMarts cost is up grocery items.
relatively higher. Most cost categories are higher as a
percentage of sales and insufficient to cover gross profit. Supermarkets and convenience stores everywhere. According
to Euromonitor International, there was a staggering 946
Scenario analysis: RedMart needs revenue of S$260m to supermarkets, hypermarkets, and convenience stores in this
S$380m to achieve breakeven. Assuming RedMarts small island as of 2016. It is convenient for consumers to
operating cost remains constant at S$65m and gross margins purchase their groceries as either a supermarket or
remain at 17%, it would take revenue of c.S$380m for convenience store is just round the corner. Consumers do not
RedMart to achieve operating- profit breakeven. However, if see the need to make their grocery purchases online, saving
gross margins were 25%, it would need S$260m in revenue on delivery fees, as they can simply grab the groceries from
to breakeven at operating costs of S$65m. We estimate that the physical stores on their way home from work or school.
implies about 3.2x to 4.6x from its FYE Jun16 revenue of An exception will be the purchase of bulky items such as
S$82m. packaged rice and cooking oil, which consumers would prefer
to purchase online and have them delivered.
RedMart cost as a % of sales vs incumbents in Singapore
932 convenience stores and supermarket outlets in 2016
NTUC, SSG, DFI Redmart
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
COGS Staff costs Depreciation Rental costs Selling and Admin and Technology
distribution other costs costs
costs
Source: Companies, DBS Bank
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
Supermarket shopping is very convenient in Singapore
and people are still shopping in stores Proliferation of HDB and mall supermarkets makes shopping
convenient. HDB constantly makes supermarket shops available
Grocery shopping is very convenient in Singapore. Singapore for businesses to lease. Apart from providing public housing to
is a compact city with an efficient transport system. Most 80% of Singaporeans, HDB also leases commercial real estate
commuters are able to travel to most parts of the island to businesses, which enhances amenities for residents in these
conveniently, thanks to a robust and improving public areas. HDB consistently puts up properties minimart,
transport system. As such, people have high mobility. supermarket, eating houses, and shops in residential estates
Singapores public rail system, based on LTAs statistics, sees for bidding. HDBs township planning ensures that there are
an average of 2.9m commuters travelling within its network sufficient amenities for residents, especially food-related ones,
every day. By the same token, grocery retail outlets of various in new and old estates which it develops. The needs of
formats are conveniently located near public transport hubs, residents of every age are catered to, regardless of the
thanks to the Housing & Development Boards (HDB) plans to residents tech-savviness. Grocery shops, supermarkets, and
have supermarkets at their commercial properties located in minimarts are hence conveniently located in the heartlands for
suburban town centres and suburban malls always having a residents to visit.
supermarket element in their tenant mix. Commuters
travelling through these town centres can conveniently pick
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Close to 10 HDB properties (for grocery retail) are available for lease in the next 6 months
S/N Estate Precinct Name Block Street Name Commercial Units
Minimart Supermarket
1 Bukit Batok Skyline @ Bt Batok 296A Bukit Batok Street 22 1 -
2 Punggol East Waterway Sundew 660A Edgedale Plains - 1
3 Queenstown Ghim Moh Edge 224A Ghim Moh Link - 1
4 Sembawang EastLace @ Canberra 115 Canberra Walk 1 -
5 Sengkang Anchorvale Parkview 338 Anchorvale Crescent - 1
6 Sengkang Fernvale Riverwalk 417 Fernvale Link - 1
7 Woodlands Admiralty Flora 691 Woodlands Drive 73 - 1
8 Woodlands Woodlands Glen 573 Woodlands Drive 16 - 1
9 Toa Payoh Toa Payoh Crest 131 Lorong 1 Toa Payoh 1 -
Total 3 6
Source: Place2lease, DBS Bank
Supermarket shopping a lifestyle. MGR stores in Singapore Many do not live off the beaten path in Singapore with the
dominate online grocery retail, boasting sales of S$4.3b need for delivery. Singapore is an urbanised country with a
compared to the latters S$96m. Evidently, even though there high MGR density and Singapore has an efficient public
are online platforms, consumers in Singapore continue transport system for people to do grocery shopping in stores.
shopping in stores. Many people still see grocery shopping in As many as 80% live in HDB flats which are conveniently
supermarkets as an activity that they enjoy doing on a daily or located, with no need for grocery delivery. It is convenient to
weekly basis. Shopping in a supermarket allows them to touch, shop at the physical stores and they get to save on the delivery
feel, and inspect the product before purchase, and this is fees as well. Online grocery retail does appeal to consumers
important, especially for fresh produce. These is an experience who do not have the time to make their way down to the
that online retail cannot offer. physical stores, stay far away from the nearest grocer, enjoy
the convenience of online retailing, or have heavy and bulky
Online retail targets a certain consumer profile purchases to make water, beer, rice etc.
Online customers have a certain profile. We scope out the Profile of online shoppers differs from store shoppers
profile of grocery shoppers who are open to using online Online shoppers Store shoppers
channels as a means to shop. These consumers typically already Selection Consumers already Choice and freedom to
know what they want with no need to browse and select know what they choose all selection
items especially fresh food , can afford to await delivery, do want especially fresh food
not mind paying a delivery charge, are buying heavy or bulky Wait time Can afford to Get purchase
items, live off the beaten path, and have no time or choose not await delivery immediately
to get out of their house. Delivery Do not mind No delivery charge
charge paying a delivery applicable
Pros and cons of online grocery shopping charge if any
Positives Negatives Heavy or Wants delivery to More difficult to manage
Shop any time Hassle of signing up/in bulky items do the heavy lifting bulky or heavy items
Time savings Website navigation Location Live off the beaten Have a store nearby or at
Chore avoidance Trouble with path a conveniently located
substitutions/returns place along the way
Wide range of product options Delivery coordination Convenience No time or do not Love or do not mind
Worries about freshness want to get out of supermarket shopping
Source: DBS Bank the house
Source: DBS Bank
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Market needs to get used to paying for delivery cost or intact. To this end, online grocers throw in discounts,
online retailers will need to subsidise promotions, and bundle offers to increase basket sizes. That
will, however, eat into an online grocers margins unless it is
Delivery cost an issue. Delivery cost is a major obstacle able to seek further rebates from its suppliers.
preventing many consumers from purchasing groceries online.
Consumers may baulk at the idea of paying for delivery cost Somebody needs to subsidise fulfillment costs. The difference
when purchasing groceries online as they can easily pick up between online retailing and store retailing is in last-mile
groceries from a nearby supermarket. They may also be logistics. The former is fulfilled by the seller, while the latter is
concerned with proper storage of chilled food items during borne by the consumer. Logistics costs and unfavourable
delivery, preferring to pick up these items in nearby grocery economics, including orders, pricing, and ticket sizes can
stores as these are usually low-ticket items and easy to make online players like Ocado remain unprofitable for a long
transport. This is in contrast to shopping for big items at, say, time. For some supermarket operators, leveraging on their
IKEA where the consumers have no choice but to pay for store network and fulfilling delivery from individual stores can
delivery. As for online retailers such as Taobao and Qoo10, be more profitable than delivering from a central distribution
they offer a wide variety of products at lower prices with no centre. Pure-play online grocery players will not have this
freshness limitations. Consumers therefore do not see the need benefit since they have no stores or have outsourced cold-
to head down to the stores as they can simply purchase the chain locations for a hub-and-spoke arrangement.
products with a click. Online grocery retailers, on the other Meanwhile, logistics costs will continue to play a key role in
hand, will have to look into reducing delivery costs to entice the profitability of online grocery retail.
more consumers to switch to online grocery retailing.
Delivery to home still the preferred means of fulfillment. A
Delivery is not free recent survey by Nielsen, showed that 85% of grocery
Online grocery retailers Delivery fees shoppers who are already using or are willing to shop
RedMart S$49 S$7 delivery fee through online channels prefer delivery to their homes as
> S$49 Free delivery their preferred choice of fulfillment. In fact, delivery to homes
NTUC Fairprice < S$99 S$7 delivery fee
is the most preferred choice of fulfillment for online grocery
S$99 Free delivery
shoppers. All alternate means of fulfilment were significantly
lower amongst the sample of online grocery shoppers
Giant < S$60 S$12 delivery fee
surveyed.
S$60 S$7 delivery fee
Cold Storage < S$60 S$12 delivery fee
Most online grocery shoppers prefer delivery to their
S$60 S$7 delivery fee
homes
OpenTaste < S$35 S$4.95 delivery fee
S$35 Free delivery 100%
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Cold-chain logistics will be relatively more expensive. Service Flexibility options for customers add to costs
providers need cold-chain management to preserve freshness,
adding to costs. Non-fresh grocery items such as water, Online players are currently in a catch-22 situation. Customer
detergent, canned food, pasta, toiletries, etc with no service includes sales guarantees and replacements, flexibility
requirement for refrigeration have longer shelf life. Frozen and for immediate and appointed delivery times; otherwise,
fresh food however remains a challenge and cold-chain consumers may be reluctant to buy online. These promises add
logistics is necessary to preserve freshness. Unlike non-food to costs, including that for double delivery, until the business
items in e-commerce, product failure in fresh food has some gains scale. It is then up to the businesses to execute
impact on food safety. Service providers need to prevent food efficiently. With scale, online players are then able to provide
products from being contaminated during delivery. Delivery such customer services profitably.
costs will hence be more significant to for online grocery
players. Logistics costs will be higher for online players in cities Click-and-collect may be more viable for now
that sprawl across a large area and/or have an expensive
transport system. Customers undertake delivery costs under Click-and-collect
model. Click-and-collect is a grocery retail model highly
Groceries face a lower risk of disruption by online retail popular in France and the UK. Under this model, consumers
compared to non-food items submit their orders online and collect their purchases from a
collection point. The collection point may or may not be at the
The challenge is in preserving freshness. Shoppers want to grocery retail store. It may be a more viable model for
choose their own fresh groceries. Nielsens Global Connected businesses because it slashes delivery costs for the online
Commerce Survey in 3Q 2016 showed that grocery items rank retailer. This model is being considered by supermarkets as it is
among the lowest for online purchase amongst 18 durables more viable for profitability and helps reduce the costs incurred
and consumables product and service categories. Fresh for preserving freshness, logistics, fuel, traffic, cold trucks, etc.
groceries rank the highest, with 44% of shoppers preferring to
buy more often in-store. Evidently, grocery consumers rank the Carrefour Drive pick-up point in Belgium
ability to select their own fresh products highly. Online players
will hence have to gain shoppers trust and prove that they can
deliver fresh grocery items to customers or risk losing sales in
this product category. For this reason, we believe that fresh
food will face less online disruption than non-food items.
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Baby and family items dominate Click-and-Drive in Servicing the wrong area. Webvan expanded into cities with
France (Click-and-Drive weight of each product category) low population density, which resulted in relatively high
14.0%
delivery costs that made fulfilment unprofitable. Its trucks were
13.1%
12.2%
11.5% 11.2% 11.2% making trips to areas with low order count/ticket size. These
12.0%
10.0% 9.9% 9.8% made delivery trips and trucking costs inefficient, leading to
10.0% 9.0% 8.7%
poor profitability.
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
Owned infrastructure, no leverage on third parties. Webvan
4.0% had its fully owned infrastructure from warehousing to the
2.0% picking of orders, delivery and customer service. It didnt
0.0% leverage on third-party suppliers such as brick-and-mortar
grocery stores and concentrated their resources on the delivery
and customer service aspects. Grocers such as Ocado and
Peapod leverage on grocery stores and started warehouses
Source: Nielsen, DBS Bank when it made economic sense.
How some online grocers failed Last-mile logistics is expensive - Zyllem has closed
Webvan operated for five years. Webvan was an online grocery Last-mile logistics is expensive. Last-mile logistics firm Zyllem
retailer founded in the USA in 1996 but made several mistakes stopped providing delivery services on 7 September 2016 in
which contributed to its downfall including moving into Singapore. Zyllem had up to 5,000 drivers and was growing at
online too early and eventual bankruptcy in 2001. In the a double-digit rate month-on-month. Costly delivery services,
process, Webvan drained c.US$800m in venture capital and which led to poor profitability, resulted in its closure. The
IPO proceeds. delivery services market in Singapore is competitive and players
compete on every measure, from prices to delivery time. High
Wrong pricing and target audience. By offering a wide range logistics cost including vehicle and labour costs, along with the
of high-quality goods at low prices, as well as home delivery competitive market pricing, pose challenges to logistics players
services, the company turned in low profit margins. The low Similarly, high logistics costs will pose a challenge for online
prices failed to attract upmarket consumers and it was left with grocery players when they try to make their business profitable.
consumers who bought low-margin products.
More viable for retailers with own backend logistics to deliver
Over-expansion. Webvan expanded quickly into nine cities to online consumers as stores are already profitable. MGR
within 18 months and had aggressive plans for new cities retailers with their own logistics abilities already have resources
before it was successful in its first market. It even had plans to to fulfil deliveries from distribution centres to stores.
expand into 26 more cities by 2001, the year it went into Deploying a truck or dedicating a hub store to fulfil last-mile
bankruptcy. It built several warehouses with a US$1b delivery will be more viable for profitability than pure-play
investment. online players with backend logistics dedicated solely for online
purchases.
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Retailers will continue growing while online grocery shopping finds its feet
Retailers will increase their store network from suppliers. Due to their smaller store network, suppliers
cannot penetrate the market overnight by putting up their new
Larger players are growing their store network and products with the smaller retailers. They are unable to collect
operational scale. ASEANs largest listed grocery retail players listing fees as well. Smaller MGR players in Singapore have
continue to drive growth and topline with store openings. therefore tried to build up their store networks recently. HDB
This is a common theme regardless of whether grocery rents have been tendered at aggressive rates of c.S$20psf
markets are well developed or not. Even in densely-populated because smaller players have been trying to win more shop
Singapore, proliferation of stores at every corner will drive spaces to build up economies of scale. With an additional
convenience and purchase frequency. outlet or two, retailers will enjoy better economies of scale and
profitability for volume discounts and rebates, provided that
Operators in ASEAN are growing store count rental rates are economically sensible.
Store growth strategy
Sheng Siong Targets 50 stores and beyond island-wide Successful HDB rental tender rates have gone up as
eventually and in places where it has no smaller players have been bidding aggressively
presence S $ psf
22
Dairy Farm Has started to expand store count after
20
store rationalisation exercise
NTUC Fairprice Continues to bid for shop spaces 18
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assigned distribution centres instead of to the stores. iCash collection system at NTUC Fairprice
Distribution centres also have capacity for higher volume
purchases, enabling the retailers to enjoy more volume
discounts. There will be more leverage on fixed warehouse
operating costs when the distribution centre breaks even.
Efficient distribution chain management will drive down opex.
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7-Eleven Signature - First unmanned convenience store in Customers use their hands to enable payment
Korea. Koreas first unmanned convenience store has opened
st
in May 2017 on the 31 floor of Lotte World Tower in
southeastern Seoul. Known as 7-Eleven Signature, it is a
smart store featuring a host of new technologies
refrigerators that open and close automatically by detecting
human movement; 360-degree scanners that scan all items,
regardless of where the barcodes are facing, on the conveyor
belt; a smart CCTV system capable of reporting fires and
collecting data on customers; a Smart Safe Cigarette Vending
Machine that is able to verify the age of the customer; and
Handpay, by which customers can make payment with their
palms.
7-Eleven Signature, unmanned self-service store format Source: The Digital Times, DBS Bank
Source: Korea JoongAng Daily, DBS Bank A customers bank data is linked to his/her handprint
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ASEAN-5 MGR market has grown in the past two years Thailand
Philippines 37%
Local currency 2014 2016 CAGR% 20%
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2-Year CAGR: Growth of MGR in ASEAN-5 generally outgrew traditional grocery retail
2014-16 CAGR% Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Total (US$)
Local currency
Supermarkets 3.4% 5.3% 2.2% 7.4% 4.9% 0.7%
Hypermarkets 19.7% 1.6% -2.0% 7.0% 3.2% -2.5%
Convenience stores -2.6% 17.1% 7.8% 16.6% 8.1% 6.2%
Others 0.4% 14.6% 2.2% 9.4% 2.8% -2.6%
MGR 4.9% 10.3% 0.9% 7.8% 5.4% 1.3%
Traditional -1.6% 7.1% 2.4% 2.9% 1.2% -0.8%
Total (US$) -1.2% 0.9% -8.8% 1.6% -0.8% -0.2%
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
Industry-critical factors support growth of MGR in The rise of the middle class is expected to drive demand for
ASEAN-5 better-quality products. According to Euromonitor, the number
of middle-class households, defined as those earning an
Urbanisation is driving demand for and penetration of grocery annual disposable income between US$15,000 and US$25,000
retail. Urbanisation has been a key trend for MGR. - in most ASEAN-5 countries has increased. This growing
Urbanisation rates of the ASEAN-5 countries increased 1.2ppt middle class is expected to fuel changes in consumer
in 2016, translating to an additional 11m in their urban behaviour, including higher purchasing power and stronger
population. Urbanisation makes it easier for MGR to expand demand for consumer goods, both domestic and imported
into new areas and grow in terms of value due the higher goods. These consumers, with higher purchasing power, are
selling prices in urbanised areas. Urban consumers usually have expected to shift towards purchasing better-quality products
higher disposable income and are thus more likely to purchase from MGR instead of traditional formats. MGR players are
better-quality products. expected to continue their expansion in the ASEAN-5
countries, particularly in emerging and underserved areas,
The urbanisation rate in ASEAN-5 has generally increased according to Euromonitor. MGR penetration in ASEAN-5
US$b 2014 2016 countries is forecast to increase 3ppt to 33% by 2021.
Singapore 100% 100%
Developing ASEAN-5s middle-class households
Indonesia 53% 54.47%
Malaysia 74.01% 75.37% 2008 2014
Households Households
Philippines 44.49% 44.29%
Thailand 49.17% 51.54% Indonesia 19m 17m
ASEAN-5 52.52% 53.73% Malaysia 1.3m 1.6m
*The urbanisation rate in Philippines declined because total Philippines 4.6m 5m
population was outgrowing urban population. Thailand 5m 6m
Source: The World Bank, DBS Bank Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
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Modern grocery retails penetration in ASEAN-5 has increased by 1ppt in each market
46% 30%
42%
72%
17%
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5-Year CAGR of 7.4% for MGR in ASEAN-5 till 2021 CAGR growth of 7.4% for ASEAN-5 MGR over the next
five years
MGRs penetration in ASEAN-5 is expected to increase by
US $ billion
3ppt to 33% in 2021. MGRs penetration in the Philippines 100
and Thailand is forecast to increase by 5ppt, the largest jumps 7.4% CAGR
among ASEAN-5 countries, to 35% and 51% in 2021, 80
by 2021 while no changes are expected in Malaysia. Thailand Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Singapore
40
Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand from 2016-
21. In Indonesia, leading convenience stores players are
35
7.5%
expected to expand their outlets into less saturated areas
30 CAGR
outside of Java despite the law limiting the expansion; In
25 Philippines, convenience stores players are expected to
5.3%
20 CAGR 11.1% expand into business districts and local neighborhoods.
CAGR
15
Convenience stores are the most suitable format due to
7.3% smaller available retail area. Consumers also value the
10 CAGR
2.5% convenience and accessibility that the convenience stores
CAGR
5 offer. In Thailand, growth of convenience stores is driven by
0 aggressive outlet expansion into metropolitan and provincial
Thailand Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Singapore
2016 2021
areas, making them a convenient platform for grocery
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank purchases due to their proximity to residential areas. In
Malaysia, convenience stores are expected to expand their
outlet count to cater to the higher demand for convenience
stores. This demand is driven by the increasingly busy
lifestyles in Malaysia and consumers value the convenience
(24-hour operation and quick meal solutions) offered by these
convenience stores.
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CAGR growth of 7.4% for MGR in ASEAN-5 over the next five years, led by the Philippines and convenience stores
2016-21 CAGR% (US$) Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Total
Supermarkets 3.0% 2.5% 6.3% 9.7% 6.4% 6.6%
Hypermarkets 2.4% 1.6% 5.8% 13.3% 5.2% 6.0%
Convenience stores -1.9% 7.8% 14.2% 19.4% 9.8% 9.3%
Others 1.9% 3.8% 6.7% 10.9% 6.7% 6.7%
MGR 2.5% 5.3% 7.3% 11.1% 7.5% 7.4%
Traditional 1.2% 3.0% 7.0% 6.3% 3.3% 4.0%
Total 2.1% 3.4% 7.1% 7.9% 5.3% 5.0%
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
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Smaller players to play catch-up A sizeable network and logistics chain may attract a
takeover bid from an online player
Smaller players, in order to compete, will have to gain scale
by opening more stores. However, they are limited by Acquisitions abound in the grocery retail space. Grocery
resources including finances. It will be slightly harder for them retailers have been busy acquiring and selling over the past
to implement cost reduction measures such as installing cash two years. Notable transactions in ASEAN include Casino
machines and increasing rebates given by suppliers. One of Groups 3.3b disposal of BIG C to the TCC Group in 2016
the ways is to outbid incumbents with a slightly higher rental and the sale of RedMart, Singapores online grocery retailer,
rate to win stores, which has resulted in high rental rates for to Lazada for US$30-$40m. Valuations for the transactions
shop space in Singapore. Having more stores will give them have been priced between 0.5-1.8x sales and 10-33x
more bargaining power when negotiating credit/financing EV/EBITDA.
terms with suppliers. These will improve operating leverage
and overall margins and profitability of their business. Amazon has already bought Wholefoods, undertaking an
Although smaller stores are gaining traction in terms of store online-to-offline strategy. Amazon announced in June that it
wins, their higher-than-market store rental rates would mean was acquiring the 431-store upscale US brick-and-mortar
lower profitability and higher operating efficiencies is grocery retailer Whole Foods Market for US$13.7b. Whole
expected turn in better profitability. Foods will give Amazon an instant national physical presence
and a network of mini distribution points for fresh produce,
alleviating the challenge of perishability of fresh food in the
online grocery business.
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Top picks are DFI, SSG, RRHI, CPALL Our ASEAN grocery retail universe trades at a PE of 22x
(x)
Our ASEAN grocery retail universe is trading at 22x PE. 40.0
Our top picks are SSG, DFI, CPALL, RRHI. Our picks for the 20.0 -1sd: 20x
sector are SSG and DFI in Singapore, CPALL in Thailand, and
RRHI in the Philippines. Earnings are expected to outpace 15.0 -2sd: 15.1x
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Peer Comps
M ark et Operat ing Net Div idend
12-mth Cap P/BV P/Sales ROE M argin M argin Y ield Rev enue Gross Net debt Operat ing Inv ent ory Pay able Collec t ion
Company Rat ing TP (S$m) Px L ast PE (A c t ) PE (Y r 1) PE(Y r 2) (x ) (x ) (%) (%) (%) (%) (US$m) M argin t o equit y c ashf low s day s day s day s CCC
Sout h East A sia Ret ailers
Dairy F arm Intl BUY 9.96 15,136 8.21 23.9x 22.8x 21.1x 6.5x 0.9x 30% 4.1% 4.2% 2.8% 11,201 30.2% cash 543 46.09 112.40 8.54 (58)
CP ALL BUY 75 22,227 61 33.0x 27.3x 22.7x 8.2x 1.1x 33% 6.6% 4.1% 1.8% 12,873 21.9% cash 1,123 28.51 71.34 0.79 (42)
Big C Supercntr NOT RATED n/a 7,451 223 28.4x 24.1x 22.8x 3.5x 1.6x 13% 7.0% 5.5% 0.9% 3,274 22.0% 0.3 72 46 79 8 (26)
Siam Makro NOT RATED n/a 6,950 35.75 29.7x 27.6x 25.5x 9.9x 1.0x 35% 4.1% 3.1% 2.4% 4,802 10.7% 0.4 253 31 56 4 (20)
Puregold HOLD 41.90 3,501 46.80 23.6x 21.6x 19.7x 2.7x 1.1x 13% 7.1% 4.9% 0.6% 2,224 16.5% cash 53 58.41 38.49 10.64 31
Robinsons Retail BUY 101 3,260 87.00 24.9x 21.6x 19.3x 2.3x 1.0x 11% 5.3% 4.7% 0.9% 2,080 21.9% cash 122 54.41 71.86 6.52 (11)
Sumber Alfaria NOT RATED n/a 2,989 700 47.8x 35.3x 30.7x 5.5x 0.5x 12% 2.3% 1.1% 0.6% 4,165 10.7% 1.2 156 43 43 12 12
Matahari Putra FULLY VALUED 450 359 650 90.8x nm 86.3x 1.5x 0.2x n/m n/m n/m 0.0% 1,015 16.3% cash 44 89.27 75.31 1.26 15
PSC NOT RATED n/a 2,074 167 66.5x - - 15.9x 2.7x 24% 6.1% 4.1% 0.4% 570 24.5% 0.1 56 32 40 15 6
Sheng Siong BUY 1.20 1,481 0.99 23.6x 21.6x 20.6x 5.7x 1.8x 27% 9.0% 8.5% 4.2% 582 25.7% cash 57 36.16 71.54 5.07 (30)
Hero Supermarket NOT RATED n/a 452 1,050 24.2x - - 0.8x 0.3x 3% 1.6% 1.1% n/a 1,015 26.1% (0.0) 31 72 51 9 31
Bison Cons NOT RATED 2.02 237 2.40 40.0x 29.8x 24.4x 4.3x 2.2x 15% 9.4% 7.4% 0.6% 62 35.8% cash 5 56.97 79.00 32.19 10
7 Elev en NOT RATED 1.58 461 1.30 24.9x 23.6x 20.3x 30.5x 0.6x 148% 3.7% 2.6% 3.4% 490 30.7% cash 18 57.88 113.91 17.20 (39)
Midi Utama ID NOT RATED n/a 276 930 13.3x - - 2.9x 0.3x 24% 5.0% 2.3% 2.2% 631 25.6% 2.1 52 50 51 12 11
Regional av erage 35.3x 19.4x 28.5x 7.2x 1.1x 30% 5.5% 4.1% 1.6% 3,213 22.7% 0.7 185 50 68 10 (8)
Int ernat ional Peers
Tesco PLC 25,508 173.50 n/m n/m n/m 2.2x 0.3x 1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 69,700 5.4% 0.8 2,466 16 33 33 17
Carrefour SA 26,509 21.77 20.5x 14.1x 12.7x 1.6x 0.2x 8% 2.5% 1.0% 3.2% 82,815 22.8% 1.1 3,476 40 87 37 (11)
Kroger Co 28,310 23.01 13.8x 11.6x 11.3x 3.4x 0.2x 25% 3.0% 1.7% 2.2% 115,337 22.4% 2.1 4,272 26 24 5 8
Woolworths Ltd 36,636 26.46 50.8x 22.5x 20.3x 3.7x 0.6x 7% 2.8% 3.4% 2.9% 43,462 26.8% 0.4 1,758 40 42 3 1
Ocado Group PLC 3,130 280.10 n/m n/m n/m 6.1x 1.3x 4% 1.7% 0.9% 0.0% 1,585 34.2% 0.6 121 15 35 14 (6)
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV 34,422 17.20 20.2x 13.3x 11.9x 1.3x 0.4x 9% 3.2% 1.7% 3.3% 52,245 26.9% 0.2 3,041 25 41 9 (7)
J Sainsbury PLC 9,660 245.70 14.9x n/m n/m 0.8x 0.2x 5% 2.4% 1.4% 4.2% 31,912 6.2% 0.2 1,403 20 35 36 21
Delhaize Le Lion De Leeuw SCA 16,021 102.80 - - - - - - 2.7% 1.5% 1.8% 26,493 24.3% 0.1 1,384 28 46 10 (8)
Regional av erage 24.0x 15.4x 14.0x 2.7x 0.4x 9% 2.4% 1.5% 2.2% 52,944 21.1% 0.7 2,240 26 43 18 2
Nort h A sia peers
Sev en & i Holdings Co Ltd 48,832 4,520 41.3x 20.8x 18.0x 1.7x 0.7x 9% 3.7% 1.7% 2.0% 52,158 38.3% (0.0) 4,579 21 42 28 6
President Chain Store Corp 12,841 275.00 28.1x 26.9x 24.8x 9.1x 1.3x 48% 4.8% 4.6% 2.9% 6,682 32.8% (0.9) 734 30 54 9 (15)
Yonghui Superstores Co Ltd 13,560 6.71 43.3x 40.7x 32.8x 3.4x 1.3x 10% 3.0% 2.5% 1.8% 7,084 20.1% (0.5) 277 45 54 13 3
Sun Art Retail Group Ltd 10,677 6.30 20.5x 21.8x 20.0x 2.4x 0.5x 18% 3.9% 2.6% 3.8% 14,453 23.9% (0.3) 1,000 67 93 7 (19)
Lawson Inc 9,021 7,380 19.9x 21.1x 20.2x 2.7x 1.2x 22% 9.5% 5.8% 3.4% 5,642 72.4% 0.6 896 38 234 66 (130)
F amily Mart UNY Holdings Co Ltd 9,667 6,260 33.0x 33.3x 25.5x 1.5x 0.9x 9% 3.9% 2.2% 1.8% 7,542 62.7% 0.7 745 41 184 68 (75)
Ministop Co Ltd 868 2,424 n/m n/m n/m 1.2x 0.4x 1% -0.7% 0.1% 1.9% 1,760 37.6% 0.0 85 8 73 33 (32)
E-Mart Inc 8,267 238,000 17.6x 16.1x 13.8x 0.9x 0.4x 7% 3.7% 2.5% 0.6% 12,235 28.1% 0.5 616 32 30 8 11
Lianhua Supermarket Holdings Co Ltd 683 3.42 - nm 76.3x 1.4x 0.0x -8% -0.8% -1.7% 0.0% 3,837 14.8% (2.4) 15 47 64 8 (8)
CV S Bay Area Inc 46 750 94.4x - - 1.7x 0.1x 8% -0.4% 0.3% 1.3% 263 30.2% 1.7 5 9 4 9 13
Poplar Co Ltd 87 606 12.9x - - 1.8x 0.2x 18% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 297 30.2% 0.3 0 13 42 5 (24)
Beijing J ingkelong Co Ltd 164 2.21 29.4x 26.7x 21.6x 0.5x 0.0x 8% 2.1% 0.2% 2.6% 1,710 20.0% 1.8 85 63 47 66 82
Regional av erage 34.0x 20.3x 28.1x 2.4x 0.6x 12% 2.9% 1.8% 1.8% 9,472 34.3% 0.1 753 35 77 27 (16)
Source: ThomsonReuters, DBS Bank
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Source: www.opentaste.sg
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Same-day 1-hour delivery. Customers order from the many Out of stock?
grocery stores (NTUC Fairprice, Mmmm!, Gastronomia, etc.)
listed on Honestbee. Honestbee enters into revenue-sharing
agreements with all its partner merchants. The stores
available for selection to the customers are dependent on the
delivery address. Orders from multiple stores are possible.
Once the orders are made, a concierge shopper hand-picks
the products and passes them to a delivery bee. The products
can be delivered within an hour of the order.
Source: www.honestbee.sg
Convenience is the selling point for Honestbee. Honestbee Delivery/concierge fees. Honestbee offers free delivery with
caters to people who are providentially hindered from orders of S$50 from Fairprice and S$40 from Specialty and
shopping for products on their own. These people may range Farm to Table stores. Customers that do not satisfy the
from housemakers to breadwinners to the physically minimum spending will have to pay a S$10 delivery fee.
impaired. These people can shop at their fingertips, and Customers may also have to pay a peak fee if they select a
coupled with same-day 1-hour delivery, Honestbee is the time slot during which the delivery bees are busy. Peak fee
ideal platform for these people to purchase their necessities ranges from S$0.50 to S$2. On top of the delivery fee,
fuss-free. Compared to the individual grocery retailers online customers have to pay a concierge fee of S$3.99 per store for
platform (Fairprice Online, Cold Storage Online, etc.), most stores.
Honestbee allows the customers to make purchases from
many retail stores at one go. Peak fees
Source: www.honestbee.sg
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Shopper/delivery bees. Shopper bees are paid up to S$11 an Grocery shopping on many platforms
hour, which is based on a fixed hourly rate and a variable
bonus. Delivery bees receive a fixed hourly rate and a bonus
for the number of drops that they make, translating to a
maximum of S$22.20 an hour. HonestBee has worked out a
revenue-sharing agreement with all its partner merchants, all
of whom pay HonestBee for bringing in new customers.
HappyFresh
Source: www.happyfresh.com
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GoFresh FreshDirect
Wide product range. GoFresh offers a wide product range Supplier of fruits and vegetables to commercial kitchens.
comprising seafood, meat, fruits, and vegetables which are FreshDirect is a grocer that serves commercial kitchens,
sourced directly from fishermen, farmers, and artisans around supplying to restaurants, cafes, hotels, and supermarkets all
the world. The products are offered to customers either fresh over Singapore. FreshDirects product portfolio comprises
or frozen. The freezing process is industry standard and the mainly fruits and vegetables. They ensure the quality of their
products are cry-vac-packaged to preserve the freshness and products by conducting regular farm audits and product
flavor of the food. Before customers place their orders on inspections. FreshDirect also claims to have the best cold-room
GoFreshs online store, GoFresh provides suggested cooking technology. Customers can place their orders through phone,
methods, recipes as well as tips for the products. Next-day email or fax. The order form is available on FreshDirects
doorstep delivery is available for orders made before 3pm website. Orders have to be made before 3pm for next day
from Sundays to Fridays. Orders placed on Saturdays and delivery and before 12pm on Saturday for Monday delivery.
public holidays will be delivered on the next work weekday. FreshDirect do not deliver on Sundays and public holidays.
The products are delivered in ice-packed, insulated boxes.
Pre-cut fruits and vegetables, ready to cook and eat products.
Kitchenomics is a premium service provided by FreshDirect.
100% guarantee. GoFresh is committed to delivering fresh Customers can opt to have their fruits and vegetables pre-cut
produce and each purchase comes with a Freshness and tailored to their needs. This request will have to be made
Guarantee. Customers will be able to replace or ask for a three working days in advance. Furthermore, FreshDirect serves
refund for any products that are not delivered fresh if they ready-to-heat soups as well. With ready-to-cook and ready-to-
notify GoFresh within two days of delivery. eat products, customers can save on their food preparation
and manpower.
GoFresh 100% guarantee
FreshDirects premium service - Kitchenomics
Source: www.miseenplaceasia.com
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Singapore
High MGR penetration, 5-year CAGR projected at 2.5% MGR forecast to grow at 2.5% CAGR, led by
led by supermarkets supermarkets
Increasing smaller format supermarkets seen, and at the S GD million
expense of convenience stores 7000
Increasing focus on fresh produce and reining in
6000
operating expenses to improve margins
Key stock picks are Sheng Siong and Dairy Farm 5000
4000
Market size and growth
3000
Hypermarkets
12%
Supermarkets
53%
Traditional
28%
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Singapores MGR market players Technology in the grocery store. Modern grocery retailers are
Other MGR
incorporating technology into their business through the use
Big Box Singapore Pte 6% of self-service checkouts, increasing payment options as well
Ltd
4% as having efficient logistics management to ensure the quality
Sheng Siong Group
and safety of the grocery products. Online grocery retailing is
Ltd picking up as Singaporeans are increasingly tech-savvy and
13%
NTUC FairPrice Co- value the convenience that it is able to offer. Although
operative Pte Ltd consumers would still prefer to visit the physical stores to
47%
purchase fresh produce and perishable food, bulky goods
such as rice and oil are popular purchases through the online
Dairy Farm
channel. Good customer service and attractive discounts and
International Holdings rewards are important aspects valued by online consumers.
Ltd
30% This has attracted the attention of global e-commerce market
players such as Amazon and Tesco which have plans to
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
expand their business into Southeast Asia, starting with
Singapore.
Singapores grocery retail market players
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Singapores consumers have been downtrading. Over the Sheng Siong (SSG SP, BUY TP S$1.20). We remain positive on
past year, the weak economy has seen consumers trading Sheng Siong on the back of better visibility of higher margins.
down from higher-end supermarkets to the mass-market We believe expansion of its distribution centre will grow and
segment. This has led Dairy Farm, which operates higher- sustain gross margins going forward. Margins remain on the
end supermarket Cold Storage, to close some non-profitable uptrend, supported by the increase in direct sourcing, bulk
stores in Singapore in CY2H16. handling, and fresh mix, contributing to earnings growth. The
stock is trading attractively at 20.4x FY18F PE, compared to
Store profitability remains very much in focus going forward historical average of 23x since listing. Yield remains attractive
for larger players. We expect same-store sales growth to at 4.4%. Our target price for Sheng Siong is S$1.20, based
track at 0-5%, but earnings improvement will be driven by on 25x FY18F PE. The valuation is pegged at +1SD of its
operating leverage and margins. Cost management will be historical mean since listing and is below regional peers'
key to earnings growth. Supplier rebates, sales mix of fresh average of 30x PE.
and non-fresh food, rent, wages, direct sourcing, and house
brands will all be sources of earnings growth. Smaller Dairy Farm (DFI SP, BUY TP US$9.96). We maintain our BUY
players are trying to increase their store network by bidding rating on Dairy Farm (DFI) with a higher SOTP-based TP of
for shop space at higher rates. US$9.96. Current share price ex-Yonghui values DFIs core
business at just 21.4x forward PE, below the regional peer
The online business is growing, with RedMart, Tesco, and average and its 9-year historical average forward PE of 25x.
the imminent entry of Amazon Prime. But new online We see growth supported by more margin improvements
businesses currently face a market-share tussle with physical ahead. It delivered stronger 2H16 earnings, driven by better
supermarkets, which are conveniently located across operating efficiencies as anticipated. We continue to be
Singapore. The cost of online fulfilment currently remains positive on further cost efficiencies from enhanced
high, with RedMart still recording losses and low operational processes through distribution centres,
concentration of grocery retail incumbents in the online procurement and IT systems. In line with growth traction, we
space. We hold the view that grocery online retail will also expect DPS to increase in FY17F based on c.60-56%
eventually take off. But for now, profitability is not expected payout ratio, leading to slightly higher dividend yield. Our
in this space. More players that could come in in the future target price of US$9.96 is derived from sum-of-parts
include Tesco Online Ventures and Amazon Prime. valuation methodology. We value DFI's core business at
US$9.34 based on DCF and the 20% stake in Yonghui, based
Grocery retail real estate especially for HDB estates is on the market value of US$1.09 and net debt of US$0.47 per
intensifying. Recent bidding of supermarket shop space in share.
HDB estates have risen to S$15-20 per square feet. While
HDBs supply of new supermarket outlets remains robust,
higher rental rates if they persist will increase operating
costs and lead to lower margins.
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Indonesia
Low MGR penetration at 17%, 5-year CAGR projected 9.8% CAGR growth for convenience stores from 2014-16.
at 5.3% led by convenience stores Convenience stores posted the highest growth among MGR
Government controlling MGR expansion locations from 2014-16. It is expected to continue doing the same
Sluggish household spending while competition remains from 2016-21, with a CAGR of 7.8% as people value the
keen convenience and close proximity to residential districts that
Negative on MPPA on weak demand, competition and they offer. Both supermarkets and hypermarkets declined
higher opex from 2014-16 in US$ terms due to exchange-rate differences.
These two segments are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.5%
Market size and growth and 1.6%for the next five years, led by outlet expansions.
US$101b grocery retail market, US$17b MGR, 17% MGR Convenience stores are expected to grow the fastest
penetration. Indonesias US$101b grocery retail market was going forward
the biggest in 2016 among the five SEA countries. The US$b 2014 2016 2014-16 2016-21
market size increased marginally from 2014. Grocery retail CAGR% CAGR%
was largely dominated by traditional grocery retail as it has a Supermarkets 5.34 5.20 -1.3% 2.5%
far-reaching presence into all parts of the country, rural areas Hypermarkets 3.28 3.00 -4.4% 1.6%
in particular. MGR penetration increased by one percentage
Convenience
point to 17% in 2016, driven by outlet expansion and the
stores 7.62 9.18 9.8% 7.8%
adoption of unique selling points such as fresh produce by
Others 0.036 0.041 6.7% 3.8%
supermarkets and hypermarkets.
MGR 16.28 17.42 3.4% 5.3%
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
Market size of MGR is expected to reach US$23b in 2021
US$b Modern Traditional Total Penetration Traditional grocery retail dominates the grocery retail
2014 16.27 83.23 99.50 16% market
2016 17.40 83.93 101.33 17%
Hypermarkets
CAGR% 3.4% 0.4% 0.9% 2014-16 Supermarkets
3%
5%
2021 22.53 97.45 119.98 19%
Convenience
CAGR% 5.3% 3.0% 3.4% 2016-21
stores
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank 9%
MGR forecast to grow at 5.3% CAGR, led by Indonesias MGR is dominated by convenience stores
convenience stores
IDR trillion Supermarkets
400 30%
350
300
250 Convenience
stores
200 53%
150
100
50 Hypermarkets
17%
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Convenience stores Supermarkets Hypermarkets Forecourt retailers Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
Page 40
Asian Insights SparX
ASEAN Grocery Retail
Indonesias MGR market players Consumers are now more demanding. Supermarkets are
focusing on grocery products and unique selling points such
Other MGR Indomaret as fresh produce. Hypermarkets, on the other hand, are
27%
31% focusing more on the sales of non-grocery products due to
the higher profit margins. Consumers also enjoy purchasing
non-grocery products from hypermarkets due to the
aggressive promotions offered by retailers. Pricing is key for
grocery retail as consumers wants to obtain the maximum
value from their grocery purchases. In addition to price,
Dairy Farm International
Holdings Ltd consumers are also considering other factors such as quality,
5%
Matahari Putra
customer service, store location, and presence of value-added
Alfamart
Prima Tbk PT
Trans Retail 24% services when making their purchase decisions.
6%
Indonesia PT
7%
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank Online grocery retail sprouting. Online grocery retailing is
growing as many Internet retailers have added grocery
Indonesias grocery retail market players products to their product portfolio. Many special events and
promotions were also held to entice consumers to switch to
Indomaret Alfamart
5% 4% Trans Retail online retailing.
Indonesia PT
1%
Other MGR Traditional grocery retailers taking on the challenge by MGR.
7% Despite the growth of modern grocery retailing, traditional
grocery retailing still prevails due to the deep penetration into
many areas in the country, especially the smaller and more
remote areas where modern grocery retailers are unable to
reach. Traditional retailers have also made efforts to compete
Traditional with modern retailers by renovating and providing home
83%
delivery services. The Indonesian government are also starting
to control the locations where new modern grocery retailers
can expand to and has stopped issuing licenses for the
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
opening of new convenience stores to protect traditional
retailers. However, with the limited enforcement of laws and
Developments
the opportunity present in in less saturated areas outside
Java, modern retailers are still expected to continue with their
Outlet expansion outside key urban areas. Many Indonesians
outlet expansion plans. One interesting development is Go-
enjoy visiting hypermarkets to replenish their grocery supplies.
Jek from Gojek Indonesia PT. Consumers can utilise Go-Jek
However, due to their increasingly busy lifestyles, many are
riders to purchase groceries and have them delivered. This has
preferring convenience stores and forecourt retailers as they
been well-received because of the traffic jams in large cities
are closer to their homes. This is helped by the aggressive
which makes travelling by cars time-consuming.
outlet expansion of convenience stores, which includes
expanding into third-tier cities across the country and the
Key sector trends
addition of new products besides groceries. For example,
Indomarco Prismatama PT launched cheaper and easier
Household spending remained sluggish in 1H17. Retailers
franchise agreements and schemes as well as a Take Over
indicated weak sales during the Lebaran season with the
scheme to aid their outlet expansion plans. Indomarco also
Food and Beverage Association reporting that the industrys
embarked on its online retail plans and diversified into several
sales fell by 10% from last years Lebaran season. While
brand extensions, namely Indomaret Point, Indomaret Fresh,
prices of Indonesias key export commodities (rubber, coffee
and Indomaret Plus to increase its actual sales. Hypermarkets
and Crude Palm Oil) trended up in 2H16, the rally was not
and supermarkets have also increased their outlet counts and
sustainable, hence it has not been able to support consumers
supermarkets are reaching out to consumers in second-tier
spending power ahead of Lebaran. In addition, the delay in
cities such as Solo.
payment of civil servants extra salary in June also exacerbated
the weak spending. We note that the listed grocery retailers
saw their sales growth decelerating in 1Q17, with flattish to
negative SSSG. Some of them did not to see any meaningful
improvement approaching Lebaran season.
Page 41
Asian Insights SparX
ASEAN Grocery Retail
Page 42
Asian Insights SparX
ASEAN Grocery Retail
Malaysia
Moderate MGR penetration at 42%, 5-year CAGR 14.2% CAGR for convenience stores from 2016-21. All the
projected at 7.3% led by convenience stores segments in MGR fell from 2014-16. Hypermarkets posted
Convenience store expanding and gaining popularity the biggest decline as the leading players engaged in
Competition, costs and weak consumption dampening aggressive price competition and supermarkets and
the sector convenience stores posed competition. Supermarkets and
No stock calls on earnings risk and high valuation hypermarkets are expected to grow during 2016-21.
Similarly, convenience stores are forecast to grow at a 14.2%
Market size and growth CAGR for the next five years due to outlet expansion and the
convenience they are able to offer to busy consumers.
US$15b grocery retail market, US$6.3b MGR, 42% MGR Overall, MGR is expected to grow at a 7.3% CAGR from
penetration. Malaysias grocery retail market fell to US$15b in 2016-21.
2016 from US$18b in 2014 due to softening economic
conditions in Malaysia in 2016 which dampened consumer Convenience stores are expected to grow the fastest
confidence. The market is expected to pick up for the next going forward
five years and is forecast to reach US$21b in 2021. MGR US$b 2014 2016 2014-16 2016-21
penetration remained unchanged and there is no expectation CAGR% CAGR%
of any changes in 2021 as well.
Supermarkets 2.46 2.07 -8.3% 6.3%
Hypermarkets 3.67 2.83 -12.2% 5.8%
The MGR market is expected to reach US$9b in 2021
Convenience
US$b Modern Traditional Total Penetration
stores 0.89 0.83 -3.4% 14.2%
2014 7.68 10.43 18.11 42% Others 0.66 0.56 -7.9% 6.7%
2016 6.29 8.78 15.07 42% MGR 7.68 6.29 -9.5% 7.3%
CAGR% -9.5% -8.3% -8.8% 2014-16 Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
2021 8.95 12.29 21.24 42%
CAGR% 7.3% 7.0% 7.1% 2016-21 Traditional grocery retail is 58% of total grocery retail
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank Forecourt retailers
Convenience stores 3%
5%
7.1% CAGR grocery retail growth for the next five years.
Grocery retail declined by a staggering 8.9% CAGR for the Supermarkets
past two years but is expected to grow at a 7.1% CAGR from 14%
MGR forecast to grow at 7.3% CAGR, led by Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
hypermarkets
M YR million
Malaysias MGR is dominated by hypermarkets
35000
Forecourt
30000 retailers
Discounters 8%
1%
25000
Convenience
stores Supermarkets
20000 13% 33%
15000
10000
5000
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Hypermarkets Supermarkets Convenience stores
Hypermarkets
Forecourt retailers Discounters
45%
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
Page 43
Asian Insights SparX
ASEAN Grocery Retail
Malaysias MGR players label products as these products are usually perceived as low-
quality goods. With regards to online grocery retailing, it is
Dairy Farm
International still in its infancy as there are limited players. Many elderly
Holdings Ltd shoppers still prefer to purchase groceries from physical
Other MGR 30%
40% stores, whereas young and tech-savvy consumers are more
supportive of online grocery retail due to the convenience it
offers.
Page 44
Asian Insights SparX
ASEAN Grocery Retail
Stock pick
7-Eleven Malaysia (SEM MK, NR, Potential Target RM1.58). Bison Consolidated (BISON MK, NR, Potential Target
Although the group offers one of the best exposures to a RM2.02). Bison has posted an impressive profit CAGR of
potential consumption recovery story in Malaysia being the 15.7% over FY13-FY16 despite the challenging retail
largest operator in the standalone-convenience store segment environment. We believe that the group has successfully
(82% market share) with an aggressive new store expansion established a feasible business model in Malaysias retail
plan (about 200 stores/annum) to support topline growth space. With its upcoming new outlet openings and gradual
we are concerned that high operating expenses arising from recovery in consumer sentiment, we are optimistic that the
new store expansion could weigh on its earnings. group will continue to record double-digit earnings growth at
Furthermore, a slow recovery in consumer sentiment could CAGR of 24.7% over FY17-19. Despite its bright growth
cap its near-term earnings growth. Our fair value for 7- prospects, we believe it is fairly valued at this juncture. We
Eleven (M) stands at RM1.58, based on 29x PE, which is in have derived a TP of RM2.02, pegging at 25x FY17F PE,
line with its regional peers average PE. which is a 20% discount to its regional peers average PE,
after taking into account its smaller size (relative to peers).
Page 45
Asian Insights SparX
ASEAN Grocery Retail
Thailand
Moderate MGR penetration at 46%, 5-year CAGR 9.8% CAGR for convenience stores from 2016-21.
projected at 7.5% led by convenience stores Convenience stores posted the strongest growth from 2014-
Convenience store growing with more products, services 16 of 4% (CAGR), due to outlet expansion by leading players.
Margins to expand on product mix, cost management All segments of MGR are expected to grow over the next five
Positive on CPALL on easing competition, margin years, with convenience stores posting the strongest growth
expansion of 9.8% CAGR on the back of continuing aggressive outlet
expansion by players into metropolitan and provincial areas.
Market size and growth Supermarkets and hypermarkets are expected to be driven by
Internet retailing in the long term. Overall, MGR is forecast to
US$52b grocery retail market, US$24b MGR, 46% MGR grow at a CAGR of 7.5%.
penetration. Thailands grocery retail market size decreased to
US$52b in 2016 due to exchange-rate differences but it is Convenience stores are expected to grow the fastest
expected to reach US$68b in 2021. MGR penetration going forward
increased to 46% in 2016, driven by convenience stores and US$b 2014 2016 2014-16 2016-21
is forecast to continue increasing to 51% in 2021. Sales of CAGR% CAGR%
traditional grocery retail has been declining for the past two Supermarkets 4.63 4.72 1.0% 6.4%
years, due to exchange-rate differences, but is expected to Hypermarkets 8.08 7.97 -0.7% 5.2%
make a turnaround to post growth of 3.3% CAGR for the
Convenience
next five years.
stores 9.11 9.86 4.0% 9.8%
Others 1.66 1.62 -1.2% 6.7%
Market size of MGR is expected to reach US$35b in 2021
MGR 23.48 24.17 1.5% 7.5%
US$b Modern Traditional Total Penetration Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
2014 23.47 29.70 53.17 44%
2016 24.17 28.20 52.37 46% Traditional grocery retail is 54% of total grocery retail
CAGR% 1.5% -2.6% -0.8% 2014-16 Forecourt retailers
2021 34.65 33.10 67.75 51% 3%
Supermarkets
2016-21 9%
CAGR% 7.5% 3.3% 5.3%
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
Hypermarkets
15%
Grocery retail to grow at a 5.3% CAGR from 2016-21.
Grocery retail declined 0.8% CAGR from 2014-16 but is Traditional
forecast to grow at a 5.3% CAGR for the next five years, 54%
1200
1000
Convenience
stores
800 44%
600
400
200
0 Hypermarkets
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 35%
Hypermarkets Convenience stores Supermarkets Forecourt retailers
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
Page 46
Asian Insights SparX
ASEAN Grocery Retail
Thailands MGR market players Innovation in online grocery retailing. Online grocery retailing
is gaining traction as it is a convenient platform for
Other MGR
21% consumers to do their grocery shopping. As a result, grocery
CP All - 7-Eleven retailers have launched many services and promotions. For
33%
FamilyMart Uny Holdings Co example, Tesco Lotus introduced many new services in 2016;
Ltd
2%
it offers a variety of channels to deliver their products, and
Central Group
consumers can order online and pick up the products at any
4% Tesco Lotus branch using Click-and-Call. Similarly,
customers can order online and receive the products at
several condominium lockers in Bangkok using ShopBox24.
Big C Supercenter PCL
14% Alternatively, HappyFresh delivers Tesco Lotus products to
Tesco Plc
consumers within two hours. Besides delivery services, Tesco
26% also incorporated iBeacon, by which customers will receive
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank special privileges or discounts when they walk pass the
beacon points in Tesco if they have installed the Tesco Lotus
Thailands grocery retail market players application on their smartphones.
CP All - 7-Eleven
15% Convenience stores are also innovating. Convenience stores
are focusing on food. For example, 7-Eleven launched the
Food place business model to sell fresh food and a wide
Tesco Plc
12% variety of food products. The food products are offered at
reasonable prices largely because 7-Eleven has the economies
Traditional
54% of scale to do so. Apart from selling food, 7-Eleven is looking
Big C Supercenter PCL
7% towards outlet expansion as well as offering laundry services
and opening restaurants at their stores. 7-Eleven also offers
Central Group
2% many special promotions during the year. Another
Other MGR
10% convenience store retailer that is gaining attention is Lawson
108. Lawson 108 focuses on selling Japanese products and is
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
looking to extend its footprint across the country using both
franchises and its own investment. Its main target group is
Developments
urban dwellers.
Convenience stores, hypermarkets and supermarkets serve
Growth strategies include online, ready-to-eat food and store
different consumer needs. The interest in convenience stores
expansion. Convenience stores will be expected to be
among consumers stems from the convenience of parking,
aggressive in expanding their outlets into metropolitan and
the modern and attractive stores, their proximity to their
provincial areas. They will also seek to provide more food and
residential areas, and the variety of food which they can
drinks intended for instant consumption as well as improve
purchase anytime during the day. Convenience stores also
the prices and quality of their products. As for online grocery
provide special promotions to entice consumers.
retail, logistic is an important area of focus as consumers will
Hypermarkets are already present in key target areas and thus
expect to receive their products on time. Online marketing
the outlet expansion might be slower. Hypermarkets offer
should also be considered.
promotions to consumers, especially since most of their
consumers are low and middle-income groups which were
badly hit by the drought and the economic slowdown in
2016. Supermarkets, having a consumer base comprising
mostly middle and high-income group, focus on providing
healthier products such as organic food as their consumers
are increasingly concerned about quality.
Page 47
Asian Insights SparX
ASEAN Grocery Retail
Food retail held up despite weak outlook. The sentiment CPALL (CPALL TB, BUY TP Bt75.00). We maintain our BUY
overall in Thailand is dull as there hasnt been a near-term rating as we like CPALL for its business resilience, continuous
catalyst that would boost the economy so far. Quarter-to- success in expanding their network, margin expansion from
date statistics for Thailands retail sector hasnt been exciting an improving product mix, and lower interest expense on
amid a challenging environment. Additionally, there was debt repayment and refinancing. We believe the cash-and-
impact from the high base in April last year caused by the carry business will no longer be an earnings drag to the group
governments stimulus measure and different weather this year, as its revenue growth and gross margin expansion
conditions (hot and drought last year vs a lot of rain this will be fueled by softer competition following BIGCs business
year). Accordingly, SSSG of most of the retailers QTD, strategy to discontinue giving discount coupons to big-basket
including food and discretionary ones, have been in negative customers. Coupled with convenient stores continuous
territory. However, the food retailers such as CPALL did better aggressive expansion plan, resilient SSSG, and its efforts to
than peers with milder negative SSSG. boost gross margin via a product-mix strategy, we expect the
group to deliver 21% y-o-y growth for FY17F earnings.
Expect margin expansion. Despite a slowing sales outlook, we Additionally, we are not concerned about market saturation
still expect positive FY17F earnings growth for the sector, as we think that the CVS market in Thailand still has room to
driven by margin expansion. Earnings growth of all retailers grow. Despite aggressive store rollouts, average customer
has been positive YTD and we expect this to continue for the visits per store have been maintained at above 1,200
rest of the year. The factors that have been widening margin customers per store per day, the highest among global 7-
are product mix, cost management, and smaller interest Eleven store operators. Given its small-sized CVS store format,
expense (from lower cost of debt and outstanding debt). we believe its aggressive plan for outlet expansion is
achievable, even in Bangkok, in view of the upcoming new
We note that there will be a cremation ceremony for mass transit lines.
Thailands late King Bhumibhol in October this year. We
believe Thailand might face another period of slower
consumption as people will be in mourning once again.
However, the length and the magnitude will be much less
than in October last year as the event has been in the
calendar for a year.
Page 48
Asian Insights SparX
ASEAN Grocery Retail
The Philippines
Moderate MGR penetration at 30%, 5-year CAGR 19.4% CAGR for convenience stores from 2016-21.
projected at 22% led by convenience stores Convenience stores grew at the fastest pace from 2014-16 at
Online still unpopular, convenience stores are gaining 13.5% CAGR due to their convenience and accessibility
traction especially for urban workers. The format is expected to
Demand resilient despite higher inflation continue to post the fastest growth from 2016-21, with a
Positive on RRHI, Neutral on PGOLD CAGR of 19.4%. Supermarkets and hypermarkets are
forecast to continue their growth as players look to expand
Market size and growth into areas that have low MGR penetration rural and
emerging markets. MGR is expected to grow at a 11.1%
US$43b grocery retail market, US$13b MGR, 30% MGR CAGR for the next five years.
penetration. The Philippines grocery retail market increased
from US$41.5b in 2014 to US$42.9b in 2016, driven by Convenience stores are expected to grow the fastest
MGR. MGR penetration has also increased to 30% on the going forward
back of outlet expansion and gradual shifting of preference US$b 2014 2016 2014-16 2016-21
for quality products from MGR. Traditional grocery retail CAGR% CAGR%
continues to be popular due to its proximity to residential Supermarkets 8.81 9.66 4.7% 9.7%
areas and consumers familiarity with the it. Looking forward, Hypermarkets 2.27 2.47 4.3% 13.3%
the market size is expected to reach US$62.6b and
Convenience
penetration, 35% in 2021.
stores 0.59 0.76 13.5% 19.4%
Others 0.088 0.10 6.6% 10.9%
Market size of MGR is expected to reach US$22b in 2021
MGR 11.76 12.99 5.1% 11.1%
US$b Modern Traditional Total Penetration Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
2014 11.77 29.71 41.48 28%
2016 12.99 29.87 42.86 30% Traditional grocery retail dominates the grocery retail
CAGR% 5.1% 0.3% 1.6% 2014-16 market
2021 21.98 40.62 62.60 35% Convenience Hypermarkets
stores 6%
CAGR% 11.1% 6.3% 7.9% 2016-21 2%
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
Supermarkets
Higher growth for grocery retail from 2016-21. Grocery retail 22%
growth is expected to increase from 1.6% CAGR for the past
two years to 7.9% CAGR from 2016-21. Both MGR and
traditional grocery retail are forecast to post much higher
Traditional
growth of 11.1% and 6.3%, respectively, over the next five 70%
years as consumers needs and purchasing power increases.
MGR forecast to grow at 11.1% CAGR, led by Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
supermarkets
Philippines MGR is dominated by supermarkets
PHP billion
1000 Convenience
stores Others
900 6% 1%
800
700 Hypermarkets
600 19%
500
400
300
200
100
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Supermarkets
Supermarkets Hypermarkets Convenience stores 74%
Forecourt retailers Discounters
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
Page 49
Asian Insights SparX
ASEAN Grocery Retail
The Philippines MGR market players Worsening traffic conditions and busy lifestyles are driving
online grocery retailing. Hypermarkets remain popular among
SM Retail Inc
22% consumers as they carry an extensive selection of grocery and
non-grocery products. Meanwhile, supermarkets are popular
Other MGR among consumers for groceries and household consumables.
42%
Hypermarkets and supermarkets continue to focus more on
grocery products due to the higher demand and sales.
Puregold Price
Club Inc
13%
Online still unpopular. Online grocery retail continues to be
unpopular as many consumers still prefer to visit the physical
JG Summit
Holdings Inc stores to do their grocery shopping to ensure the quality and
Metro Retail 8%
Stores Group Seven & I Rustan Group of affordability. Consumers are also not confident to transact
3% Cos
Holdings Co Ltd
4% 8% through online means. However, with worsening traffic
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank conditions and lack of time, consumers are starting to explore
the online alternative. Online retailers, Metromart and
The Philippines grocery retail market players Robinsons Retail Group and SM Retail, utilize both desktop
SM Retail Inc Puregold Price
and mobile applications, which focus on convenience,
7% Club Inc security, and reliability, to reach out to more consumers.
4% JG Summit
Holdings Inc
2%
MGR expected to continue outlet expansion plans. Traditional
Rustan Group of
Cos grocery retailers continue to reign because they are able to
2%
capture the underdeveloped and emerging markets, which
Other MGR
modern grocery retailers have been unable to penetrate; they
15% have been able to form close personal relationships with the
consumers and provide perks and discounts from time to
Traditional time. However, some consumers prefer modern grocery
70%
retailers due to the quality and quantity of their product
selection, especially those of imported brands. Both modern
and traditional grocery retailers position themselves according
Source: Euromonitor, DBS Bank
to price segments, altering their prices, products, and location
of their stores accordingly. Modern grocery retailers are
Developments
expected to engage in outlet expansion to reach out to more
consumers, focusing mainly on convenience stores as
Convenience stores are gaining popularity. Convenience and
business districts and residential neighborhoods usually have
accessibility, due to the lack of free time as well as poor
smaller spaces available. For example, multiformat operator
traffic conditions, are important considerations for
SM Retail maintains its strong market position by opening
consumers. Therefore, grocery retailers are focusing more on
new outlets in locations that are more accessible to
opening smaller store formats such as convenience stores in
consumers. Philippine Seven Corp leveraged its operational
residential areas and business districts closer to consumers, as
network and has also opened new outlets in new and
well as providing grocery delivery services and online grocery
emerging markets.
services to consumers. Convenience stores appeal to young
and independent workers who enjoy eating out or purchasing
take-away. These convenience stores usually have bright and
cool interiors, a wide product selection, and are efficient.
Consumers usually look to traditional grocery retailers located
within their neighborhoods when they want to purchase food
for immediate consumption and to convenience stores to
satisfy their needs for a simple meal or a quick snack.
Page 50
Asian Insights SparX
ASEAN Grocery Retail
Demand remains resilient post-election and in the face of Puregold Price Club (PGOLD PM, HOLD TP P41.90). We are
higher inflation. Consumer confidence was elevated in 2Q17 projecting net profit growth of 9.2%/9.7% for FY17F/FY18F.
and grocery retailers under our coverage have been The slower earnings growth is due to diminishing impact of
experiencing solid SSSG despite the high base last year. new stores on revenue growth, higher inflation, and
Demand is underpinned by a constructive industry backdrop, competition. The cash conversion cycle (CCC) will continue to
rising household disposable income, manageable inflation, deteriorate on rising inventory and management preference
and robust economic activity. Should Package 1 of the to pay suppliers early to avail discounts. The industrys
proposed tax reform package (which includes lower income outlook remains bright and PGOLDs long-term earnings
tax rates) comes through, there could be a boost in grocery prospects are attractive. However, we anticipate better entry
spend of households. While SSSG remain solid at 3%-4%, points ahead. Our TP is P41.90, based on SOTP valuation
the impact of new store rollouts to sales is becoming less methodology. This implies PE of 19x FY17F and 18x FY18F
pronounced because the growth of stores net selling area is earnings.
slowing, due to a high base. Gross margins are still
expanding, albeit at a slower pace. Expenses are being Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI PM, BUY TP P101). We
suppressed to offset the impact of end of contractualisation. continue to have BUY rating on Robinsons Retail Holdings
Hence, profit margins are expected to remain stable but with (RRHI) with a SOTP-based TP of P101.00. While our forecast
room for an uptick. reflects the lower end of managements GFA guidance, we
see ample room for upside as demand has remained resilient
The cash conversion cycle problem. Retailers under our post-elections and in the face of rising inflation. Margins
coverage continue to experience longer cash conversion could expand or at least remain stable on fewer store closures
cycles. Inventory is rising while payable days continue to of non-performing stores, mitigating the adverse impact of
shrink. Based on our channel check, retailers are paying early end of contractualisation (ENDO). With its large war chest
to be prioritised and avail of discounts offered by larger and better inventory management, RRHI is able to alleviate
suppliers. We believe suppliers have gained the upper hand in deterioration of it its cash conversion cycle (CCC) days
bargaining, given the competition between the big three brought about by from fewer payable days. The stock is
retailers (SM Retail, Puregold, and Robinsons Retail). Inventory inexpensive, trading below historical average and its regional
management will be key in balancing margins and cash peers. Our TP of P101.00 has an implied FY18F PE of 22.4x
conversion cycle days. which is slightly above the stocks historical forward PE 21.8x.
Page 51
Asian Insights SparX
ASEAN Grocery Retail
Stock Profiles
Page 52
Singapore Company Guide
Dairy Farm
Version 5 | Bloomberg: DFI SP | Reuters: DAIR.SI Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Maintain BUY, TP raised to US$9.96 2H16 results ahead. Earnings came in at US$270m (+16% y-o-y)
led by margin expansion, with revenue growth of just 1.7% y-o-
y (US$5.6bn). Revenue growth was driven strongly by North
Price Relative Asia, largely its HK Supermarkets and HK & China convenience
US$
12.0
11.0
186
166
rationalisation in Singapore and Indonesia helped to improve
10.0
9.0
146
126 margins in supermarkets/hypermarkets segment though the
closure of loss making stores. There was also improved
8.0 106
7.0 86
6.0 66
5.0
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
46
Mar-17
contribution from Maxims and Yonghui at the associate level.
Dairy Farm (LHS) Relative STI (RHS)
Valuation:
Forecasts and Valuation
FY Dec (US$ m) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F SOTP valuation methodology. Our target price of US$9.96 is
Revenue 11,137 11,201 11,642 12,297 derived from sum-of-parts valuation methodology. We value
EBITDA 732 784 831 895 DFI's core business at US$9.34 based on DCF and the 20%
Pre-tax Profit 503 555 580 634 stake in Yonghui based on the market value at US$1.09 and
Net Profit 424 469 486 524
Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 428 463 486 524 net debt at US$0.47 per share.
Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (14.3) 8.1 4.9 7.9
EPS (US cts.) 31.3 34.7 35.9 38.8 Key Risks to Our View:
EPS Pre Ex. (US cts.) 31.7 34.2 35.9 38.8
EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (14) 8 5 8
Significant earnings disappointment. We expect earnings
Diluted EPS (US cts.) 31.3 34.7 35.9 38.7 growth to accelerate into FY17F as management rings in
Net DPS (US cts.) 20.0 21.0 23.0 23.0 better operating efficiencies. We believe that earnings would
BV Per Share (US cts.) 102 111 126 142 have to disappoint significantly to derail our positive bias on
PE (X) 27.2 24.5 23.7 22.0
PE Pre Ex. (X) 26.9 24.9 23.7 22.0 the stock. Nonetheless, our earnings forecast is conservative.
P/Cash Flow (X) 16.4 21.2 13.4 21.8
EV/EBITDA (X) 16.5 15.6 14.3 13.2
Net Div Yield (%) 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 At A Glance
P/Book Value (X) 8.4 7.6 6.7 6.0 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,352
Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 Mkt. Cap (US$m/US$m) 11,509 / 11,509
ROAE (%) 30.2 32.6 30.2 28.9
Major Shareholders (%)
Earnings Rev (%): 2 1 Jardine Matheson Holdings 77.6
Consensus EPS (US cts.): 37.4 41.6
Free Float (%) 22.4
Other Broker Recs: S: 1 H: 2
3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 2.8
Source of all data on this page: Company, DBS Bank, Bloomberg ICB Industry : Consumer Services / Food & Drug Retailers
Finance L.P.
WHATS NEW
Results review
2H16 & FY16 results ahead. FY16 core earnings was Kong, lower gross margins and poor performance in Malaysia
US$463m (+8.1% y-o-y), led by margin expansion, with due to competition and its weak economy.
revenue growth at just 0.6% y-o-y (US$11.2bn). Revenue was
driven by North Asia, convenience stores, Health & Beauty, IKEA continues to grow. Home furnishing segment continues
and Home furnishing segments. Closure of underperforming to grow in FY16 with revenue growing by 5% y-o-y to
stores and business units in Singapore and Indonesia US$597m with the same store count of nine. IKEA delivered
supermarkets/hypermarkets helped EBIT margins improve to high operating margins of 11-12%, way above group
4.0% (+0.1ppt y-o-y). The variance to our estimates came operating margins of 4%. Even though it only contributed
from lower opex, which is a direct result of these store 5% to revenue in FY16, it contributed a much higher c.16%
closures. Yonghui and Maxims associate/JV income for the of operating profit. A continued improvement in sales mix
full year was US$118m, in line with our US$120m estimate. from this segment should help to lift operating margins going
DFI declared a final DPS of 14.5 UScts, in line with our forward
estimate. On a half yearly basis, 2H16 earnings were
US$270m (+16% y-o-y) on the back of US$5.6bn (+1.7% y- Sales growth in focus
o-y) revenue.
Store expansion, multi-channel experience, differentiated
Store closures helped to deliver 3.9% y-o-y operating profit products and positioning to drive sales growth. DFIs 2017
growth for FY16 focus will be on sales growth. Post store rationalisation, it
plans to drive sales growth through store network expansion
North Asia leads revenue growth but profit margins were that include IKEA Tsuen Wan in Hong Kong (2H17), a second
lower. FY16s headline sales growth was led by North Asia store in Jakarta, and the scaling up of more 7-eleven
(US$6.6bn, +6.3% y-o-y) compared to sales declines in South convenience stores in Guangzhou, China. There is still room
and East Asia. Growth was driven by Hong Kong for product expansion such as skin care products in Health &
Supermarkets, and Hong Kong & China convenience stores. Beauty and building up private labels. Meanwhile, it is
As rents in Hong Kong however rose, North Asias FY16 developing e-commerce and increasing pickup points at IKEA,
operating profit (US$416.4m) margins declined by 0.3ppt to Wellcome and Marketplace to enhance multi-channel
6.3%. experience and fulfillment options. DFI will also strengthen
backend logistics to improve in-store availability of products
Store rationalisation in supermarket/hypermarkets led to through the setting up SAP merchandising system and
operating profit margin increase. The absence of non- establishment of new distribution centres in Malaysia and
performing stores in the supermarket/hypermarket segment Philippines. Its new SAP merchandising system would also
boosted segment margins. Store rationalisation in Singapore help in understanding its customers purchasing behavior and
and Indonesia saw segment operating margin increase by anticipating new trends.
0.4ppt to 3.1%. However, a net reduction of 8 stores in this
segment was a drag on segment revenue (US$6.2bm, -1.6% We see margins expanding going forward
y-o-y).
Distribution centres will increase the level of bulk handing
Convenience stores continue to grow. Convenience stores and cost savings. There are improvements underway at DFIs
revenue grew (US$1.95bn, +3.7% y-o-y) as a result of same back end operations, which should help to establish a more
store sales growth (SSSG) and an increase in store numbers efficient supply chain. Malaysia and Philippines will add two
(+46) particularly in China. Ready to eat food (RTE) operations new distribution centres going forward following the opening
in Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore and China, private labels, of a new distribution centre in Singapore last year. We
and post rationalisation of stores in Singapore also helped to anticipate that these fresh food distribution centres if
lift its FY16 operating profit margins to 3.8% (+0.4ppt). managed well, have the potential to drive down purchase
cost through bulk handing and higher supplier rebates.
Costs a drag on Health & Beauty margins. Health and Beauty
segment posted good revenue growth (US$2.4bn, +2.7% y- Direct sourcing into its own distribution centres saves
o-y) in FY16 driven by Hong Kong, China, Singapore and payment costs to middlemen. There are plans to move into
Philippines sales, despite a reduction of 100 stores from direct sourcing as well. With the new distribution centres, it
Indonesia and Hong Kong. Segment operating profit margin will be easier to source, warehouse and carry out direct
shrank by 0.6ppts to 7.2% y-o-y on higher rents in Hong sourcing activities. Direct sourcing cuts off the middlemen to
Page 54
Company Guide
Dairy Farm
realise better margins. Cooperation on joint sourcing with Core business valued at 21.4x forward PE
Yonghui for fresh food should develop as well to enhance Component US$ Note
DFI's share price 8.51 1
margins going forward. In addition, a new team has been put
Yonghui's 20% stake per DFI share 1.09 2
in place for procurement of products among the different Core share price ex Yonghui 7.42 3=1-2
business units. Higher economies of scale from these activities
will help improve margins going forward. Earnings FY17F 486 4
Yonghui contribution to DFI P&L 38 5
Interest expense on Yonghui loan 22 6
Valuations still compelling Core earnings ex Yonghui 469 7=4-5+6
DFIs core business currently valued below peers and average EPS ex Yonghui 0.35 8=7/1,352 shares
PE. Based on Yonghuis current market valuation, DFIs core PE ex Yonghui 21.4 3/8
Source: Company, DBS Bank
business is valued at 21.4x forward PE. This is lower than its
historical 9-year forward PE and peer average of 25x. Given
SOTP valuation
that margins have the potential to increase in the longer term
Component US$ Basis
to drive earnings growth, we raise our valuation on DFIs core EV ex cash 9.34 DCF
business based on DCF to US$9.34, which implies 25x Net debt per share -0.47 FY16s balance sheet
forward PE, in line with its historical valuation and peers. Value of Yonghui 1.09 Market value
TP 9.96
Source: Company, DBS Bank
Maintain BUY with higher SOTP-based TP of S$9.96. DFIs
core business is worth US$9.34, which implies 25x FY17F PE.
Net debt is US$0.47 per share based on end-FY16 figures,
while Yonghui at current market price is worth US$1.09 per
share. Maintain BUY for 17% upside.
Page 55
Company Guide
Dairy Farm
Number of outlets
CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH
5220 5222 5244 5355
5408.9 5160
efficient supply chain and build people capability in Asia. These 772.7
targets span across its merchandising, operations, supply chain, 0.0
IT and quality assurance functions. Initiatives include 1) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
implementing IT systems that will enhance processes and Sales per store blended
business analytics; 2) product range innovation to enhance
2.3 2.3
assortment and local relevance including ready to eat products 2.11 2.13 2.17 2.22
3.0
2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
Page 56
Company Guide
Dairy Farm
US$500m a year. We believe that DFI will be more than capable 0.00
2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
2.1
of paring down debt in the next few years. Gross Debt to Equity (LHS) Asset Turnover (RHS)
Capital Expenditure
Share Price Drivers: US$m
Earnings turnaround. We believe share price upside will be 300.0
that will drive earnings growth. Key indicators are higher 150.0
centralised procurement, logistics and other operations etc. Capital Expenditure (-)
ROE (%)
Cooperation with Yonghui may drive long-term share price. We
35.0%
are positive on DFIs Yonghui investment because the
30.0%
partnership with Yonghui provides a good platform to scale up
DFIs business in China. Longer-term opportunities include 25.0%
10.0%
13.5 +2sd:13.57x
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Dairy Farm is a Pan Asian retailer, operating over 6,400 11.5
+1sd:11.17x
supermarkets, hypermarkets, health and beauty stores, 9.5
convenience stores, home furnishing stores and restaurants Avg:8.77x
7.5
under well-known brand names in Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, 1sd:6.37x
Macau, Singapore, India, the Philippines, Cambodia, Brunei, 5.5
Page 57
Company Guide
Dairy Farm
Key Assumptions
FY Dec 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
Number of outlets 5,220 5,222 5,160 5,244 5,355
Sales per store blended 2.11 2.13 2.17 2.22 2.30
Segmental Breakdown
FY Dec 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
Revenues (US$m)
Food 8,109 8,197 8,168 8,350 8,708
Health & beauty stores 2,402 2,373 2,436 2,622 2,835
Home furnishing stores 497 568 597 671 754
Support office/others N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Total 11,008 11,137 11,201 11,642 12,297
Operating profit (US$m)
Food 299 236 267 279 292
Health & beauty stores 219 186 176 184 198
Home furnishing stores 50.7 63.6 70.6 79.3 89.1
Support office/others (43.8) (49.6) (60.7) (63.1) (66.6)
Total 524 435 453 479 512
Operating profit Margins
Food 3.7 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.3
Health & beauty stores 9.1 7.8 7.2 7.0 7.0
Home furnishing stores 10.2 11.2 11.8 11.8 11.8
Support office/others N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Total 4.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2
Page 58
Company Guide
Dairy Farm
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 7.7 (2.0) (0.9) 0.3 1.4
EBITDA Gth (%) 22.3 (28.8) 24.0 (15.5) 34.5
Opg Profit Gth (%) 13.7 (28.1) 17.0 (16.1) 29.9
Net Profit Gth (%) 17.8 (30.5) 21.3 (14.2) 35.3
Margins
Gross Margins (%) 30.0 29.2 29.8 29.6 30.8
Opg Profit Margins (%) 4.9 3.6 4.2 3.5 4.5
Net Profit Margins (%) 4.8 3.4 4.2 3.6 4.8
Page 59
Company Guide
Dairy Farm
US$
12- mt h
8.55 Dat e of Closing
S.No. T arget Rat ing
Report Pric e
Pric e
8.05 1: 04 Mar 16 6.09 7.03 BUY
2: 10 Mar 16 5.90 7.03 BUY
7.55 3: 01 Aug 16 6.60 7.18 BUY
7.05
6.55
3
6.05 2
1
5.55
Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17
Not e : Share price and Target price are adjusted for corporate actions.
Page 60
Singapore Company Guide
Sheng Siong Group
Version 9 | Bloomberg: SSG SP | Reuters: SHEN.SI Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
WHATS NEW
More catalyst in warehouse expansion Better margins from higher volume discount and higher-
margin SKUs. The existing warehouse space is running at
Background of the KTM land. When Sheng Siong close to full capacity that supports 43 stores currently.
constructed its present distribution centre at Mandai in Following the expansion, Sheng Siongs warehouse space
2009, a part of the land next to which the building sits on will increase by another 10%. Higher volume orders from
belonged to the current rail corridor (former KTM railway suppliers and increase in higher-margin SKUs will support
land). The current 2.32 hectares of land which JTC awarded margin expansion. These will come from better discounts
to Sheng Siong as a result, is constructed in a U shape from bulk orders, essentially creating better economies of
instead of a regular rectangle. This is due to the nature of scale.
land ownership when the land was awarded. Last year, the
JTC resolved the rights to the former KTM railway land and Capacity to support more stores in the future. Higher
Sheng Siong can now utilise the former KTM land. This throughput in the future will support a larger store network
means that the current U-shaped layout can be flushed into as well. HDB is constantly putting out commercial shop
a regular rectangular-shaped building, essentially expanding spaces for supermarkets in various areas. We believe Sheng
the distribution centres capacity. Siong will eventually increase its store count from the 43
stores currently. A higher warehousing capacity, throughput
Sheng Siong to expand Mandai Link warehouse by another and higher store count in the future would ultimately help
10%. The current distribution centres capacity is 500,000 to defray fixed operating costs and support margins.
sqft. Flushing the building into a regular rectangle from a U-
shaped layout will add another 50,000 sqft to the
warehouse capacity. With all systems clear and heavy Consensus is mixed on Sheng Siong, but we are positive on
equipment already on site, construction is due to start in margin expansion
June 2017 and is expected to complete in 2018. Sheng
Siong will incur S$19m in construction cost with the bulk What is the market concerned with? Consensus is generally
amounting to c.S$13m to be incurred in 2018, all internally concerned about competition and Sheng Siongs ability to
funded. The warehouse will have storage capacity for both open new stores. Store opening has been a function of
chilled and regular storage products. HDBs available supply for shop space and the competition
in bidding for them. Competition for shop space has been
keen over the past few months, with smaller players winning
What does this mean for Sheng Siong? shop space at aggressive bids. This has fuelled concerns on
Sheng Siongs inability to grow store network and open new
Beneficial to margins and better economies of scale. A stores. Besides, there also concerns that two of its stores are
bigger distribution centre will increase warehouse due to close in Woodlands (41,500 sqft) in August 2017 and
throughput and support volumes for new stores in the the Verge (45,000 sqft) in June 2017.
future. Besides, margin expansion will be supported by
higher fresh food mix, volume discounts from suppliers and Our critical factor for the stock is margin, not top line. We
scope for higher-margin SKUs (stock keeping units). More believe consensus has placed too much emphasis on Sheng
cold storage capacity built into the expanded area will Siongs top-line growth. This is where we differ and offer
support higher mix of fresh food. We do not see any our differentiated view from the market in our analysis
significant increase in manpower and delivery costs for now process. We have found that the correlation for Sheng
as its current human resources have scope to increase Siongs stock price to margin is strong (very close to 1) at a
productivity further. reading of 0.9. Hence, earnings growth and margins are
driving Sheng Siongs stock price rather than top-line
Higher margins through fresh mix. Sheng Siong is increasing growth. Singapores grocery retail growth is typically
its proportion of fresh offering in stores. Its fresh food mix is unexciting at 0-5% for top line, yet the stock price has risen
currently higher than that of key competitors Dairy Farm and in tandem with margin expansion and earnings growth. We
NTUC Fairprice. The higher-margin nature of fresh food over are positive on continued margin expansion backed by the
non-fresh grocery items will lead to higher gross margins. higher warehouse capacity we have aforementioned.
Page 62
Company Guide
Sheng Siong Group
Cost management is a critical factor in preserving margins supermarkets located across Singapore, making it
which Sheng Siong is always mindful of. Sheng Siong has convenient to pick up groceries. HDB has put up properties
>40 stores islandwide with more than 400,000 sqft of earmarked for supermarket over the years and as such,
selling space. In our opinion, being the third largest supermarkets are now conveniently located across
supermarket player in Singapore with a Mandai distribution Singapore. Online businesses although gaining traction,
centre, Sheng Siong has both critical mass and economies of remain in an unprofitable state. Pureplay online grocery
scale. We believe focus has been on cost management retailer Redmarts business remains in core operating losses
rather than driving sales. If Sheng Siongs focus was to drive and negative free cash flow. It has less than S$100m of
sales, it would be bidding aggressively against the smaller revenue in a S$6bn Singapore grocery retail market after
players regardless of price. However, it emerged as the four years of operation. HDB will release six supermarket
winning bidder in only one out of six supermarket bids this and two minimart properties in the next six months, not
year, at a reasonable S$15 psf, lower than c.S$20 psf bids in forgetting future supermarket properties in new estates such
4Q16. as Biddadari. Scope for growing store network abound over
the long term. We believe this will give online a run for its
Market is concerned that top line is slowing, but we believe money as it remains convenient for consumers to pick up
it is short term and see store network increasing eventually. groceries. About 80% of people living in Singapore live in
We refute the argument that outlook is unexciting because HDB estates (which have planned amenities including
Sheng Siong has not been winning new shop space. Instead, grocery shops) and do not live off the beaten path to
we believe the market should focus on the rental levels that really warrant grocery delivery in our view.
Sheng Siong is securing new stores, rather than short-term
headwinds of two store closures and not winning new
stores. Sheng Siong also recently won one 11,000-sqft new Financial impact
store in Woodlands St 12. Meanwhile, the Tampines Central
store expansion will add 15,000 sqft to its store network Internally funded. Sheng Siong will internally fund the
space. These will mitigate the impact of store closures. Also, warehouse expansion to the tune to S$19m comprising
we believe that footfall for the Verge and Woodlands has construction and fit out. As of 1Q17, Sheng Siong had
been tapering and well accounted for in recent quarters S$68.3m cash on its balance sheet with no debt. Sheng
results due to news of their imminent closure. Negative Siong generates c.S$70-80m in operating cashflow each
short-term impact should therefore be minimal. With HDB year, more than sufficient to fund the expansion. There is no
continuing to put up shops earmarked for supermarkets for further cashflow burden on past property purchases as
tender in existing and new estates, there are ample previous cashflow strain on the purchases of Tampines
opportunities to secure more stores going forward. property (2014, S$65m), Bedok property (2016, S$55m) and
Junction 9 (2013, S$55m) have all already been expensed.
Growing through operating efficiencies. Store count is not
the only factor that drives growth. Higher store efficiencies
can supplement growth as well along with greater focus on Valuation
cost. These include running more promotions, quicker
checkout process, store layout, new SKUs, higher-margin Maintain BUY, TP S$1.20. We maintain our BUY
products to generate greater stock turnover, sales volumes recommendation on Sheng Siong. We like Sheng Siong for
and better profitability. its steady earnings growth, net cash, growing margins and
strong dividend yield. Our TP of S$1.20 is derived from 25x
Online is not a real threat for now. We do not see online FY18F PE.
business as a significant threat for now. There are
Page 63
Company Guide
Sheng Siong Group
Rail corridor
Ex-KTM
railway
land
Page 64
Company Guide
Sheng Siong Group
SSG won one new 11,000-sqft store in Woodlands St 12 at <S$15psf in May 2017
S/N Bidder Rental/mth bid Rate
1 SHENG SIONG SUPERMARKET PTE LTD $161,000 $14.65
2 U Stars Supermarket Pte $159,000 $14.47
3 Heng Wei Ming $152,700 $13.89
4 SHENG SIONG SUPERMARKET PTE LTD $145,200 $13.21
5 Lukas Lee $138,000 $12.56
6 NTUC Fairprice Co-operative Limited $132,000 $12.01
7 To be confirmed $131,200 $11.94
8 COLD STORAGE SINGAPORE (1983) $99,000 $9.01
9 ANG MO SUPERMARKET PTE LTD $83,100 $7.56
10 Hao Mart Pte Ltd $74,200 $6.75
Source: Place2lease, DBS Bank
Bid prices have corrected from S$21psf last year to S$13-15psf this year
Date Address Winning bidder Floor space (Sqft) $/sqft Rental/mth
Dec 2016 Tampines Avenue 8 Yes Supermarket Pte Ltd 3,100 21 S$64,000
Dec 2016 Compassvale Drive Raymond Chan 3,400 17 S$58,350
19 Jan 2017 Blk 507 Yishun Avenue 4 U Stars Supermarket Pte Ltd 3,750 18 $67,200
2 Mar 2017 Blk 410A Sin Ming Ave NTUC Fairprice Co-operative Limited 5,800 13 $75,500
31 Mar 2017 Blk 878C Tampines Avenue 8 U Stars Supermarket Pte Ltd 3,100 15 $46,000
20 Apr 2017 Blk 116 Jalan Tenteram Cold Storage Singapore (1983) 5,400 14 $77,000
12 May 2017 Blk 4 Woodlands Street 12 Sheng Siong Supermarket Pte Ltd 11,000 15 $161,000
Source: Place2lease, DBS Bank
Page 65
Company Guide
Sheng Siong Group
2 Key big stores such as the Verge and Sheng Siong recently won one 11,000-sqft new store in Woodlands St 12. The Tampines
Woodlands are closing Central store expansion will add 15,000 sqft to its store network space. These will mitigate the
impact of store closures. For store closures, we believe that footfall for the Verge and
Woodlands has been tapering and well accounted for in recent quarters' results due to news of
their imminent closure. Negative short-term impact should therefore be minimal. With HDB
putting up shops earmarked for supermarkets for tenders in current and new estates, there are
opportunities to secure more stores. The question should be on the rental levels at which new
stores are secured, not short-term headwinds two store closures.
3 Online is a threat Online is not a threat for now. About 80% of people living in Singapore live in HDB estates and
do not live off the beaten path to warrant grocery delivery, while supermarkets are
conveniently located for shoppers to pick up groceries. Redmarts is penetrating the market but
remains in core operating losses and negative free cash flow. HDB will release more
supermarkets in the next six months and more when new estates are built. Scope for growing
store network abound over the long term. We believe this will give online a run for its money as
it provides convenience for consumers to pick up groceries.
4 Gross margin expansion may not Warehouse expansion will have more scope for operating efficiencies to improve. We see
sustain increased catering to new SKUs and throughput, resulting in higher volume discounts from
suppliers. Sheng Siong is still pushing for higher fresh food mix which will improve gross
margins, especially in stores where fresh food mix have room to improve. The expanded
warehouse will be completed by FY18F, which secures margin expansion trend beyond that.
Page 66
Company Guide
Sheng Siong Group
Critical Factors
Store expansion. Sheng Siong currently operates 43 stores
(including Loyang Point which is under renovation). Compared
to the other local operators, it has scope to expand its store
network, particularly in areas such as Serangoon, Hougang and
Seng Kang, where it has a low presence. Management targets
to ultimately operate 50 stores islandwide. In the past six years,
0-8 stores were opened annually, largely a function of supply of
HDB shop space available for tender and Sheng Siongs ability
Operation Area (sqft)
to win the tenders. Sheng Siong mainly operates in HDB estates.
Page 67
Company Guide
Sheng Siong Group
0.80 25
0.20 18
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Source: DBS Bank
Page 68
Company Guide
Sheng Siong Group
Net cash of over S$68m or c.4 Scts per share. The excess cash
allows for strategic store acquisitions if suitable real estate arises
for it to expand its store presence in the future. The business
generates positive working capital. Inventory is purchased on
credit, and quickly turned into cash. Over the past seven years,
the business has generated between S$20-75m of operating
cash flow each year. Dividend payout is attractive at 90%. We
expect this to be maintained as long as there is no significant
requirement for cash funding.
Capital Expenditure
Key Risks:
Company Background
Page 69
Company Guide
Sheng Siong Group
Key Assumptions
FY Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F
Rev per sqft 1,892 1,848 1,850 1,816 1,808
Operation Area (sqft) 431,000 450,000 455,664 485,664 515,664
Number of stores 39.0 42.0 45.0 48.0 51.0
Segmental Breakdown
FY Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F
Revenues (S$m)
Singapore 764 797 807 828 878
Page 70
Company Guide
Sheng Siong Group
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 11.5 (9.5) 7.2 (2.7) 10.2
EBITDA Gth (%) 16.6 (4.0) 3.3 (1.1) 7.7
Opg Profit Gth (%) 9.9 2.5 5.2 (1.9) 9.0
Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 12.4 (7.6) 3.3 (1.5) 11.0
Margins
Gross Margins (%) 24.5 26.1 25.9 26.3 25.0
Opg Profit Margins (%) 7.5 8.5 8.3 8.4 8.3
Net Profit Margins (%) 7.9 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.9
Page 71
Company Guide
Sheng Siong Group
Page 72
Thailand Company Guide
CP ALL
Version 5 | Bloomberg: CPALL TB | Reuters: CPALL.BK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
59.5 181 open at least 700 CVS stores p.a. in the next five years,
54.5
implying that CPALL will reach its previous target of 10,000
161
49.5
141
within this year. Its next store network target is 13,000 stores
44.5
121
39.5
29.5 81
May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17
about market saturation as we think that the CVS market in
CP ALL (LHS) Relative SET (RHS)
Thailand still has room to grow. Despite aggressive store
Forecasts and Valuation rollouts, average customer visits per store have been
FY Dec (Bt m) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F maintained at above 1,200 customers per store per day, the
Revenue 391,817 434,712 490,697 551,182 highest among global 7-Eleven store operators. We believe its
EBITDA 32,554 36,473 41,481 47,187
Pre-tax Profit 16,884 20,142 24,390 30,443
aggressive outlet expansion is achievable given its small-sized
Net Profit 13,682 16,677 20,094 24,165 CVS store format, even in Bangkok in view of the upcoming
Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 13,687 16,599 20,094 24,165 new mass transit lines.
Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 39.3 21.3 21.1 20.3
EPS (Bt) 1.52 1.86 2.24 2.69 Valuation:
EPS Pre Ex. (Bt) 1.52 1.85 2.24 2.69 Our TP of Bt75 is based on DCF valuation (WACC 10.4%,
EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 39 21 21 20
Diluted EPS (Bt) 1.52 1.86 2.24 2.69
terminal growth rate 2%).
Net DPS (Bt) 0.80 0.90 1.12 1.34
BV Per Share (Bt) 4.16 6.14 7.45 8.79
Key Risks to Our View:
PE (X) 40.1 32.9 27.3 22.7 Key risks are (i) delays in store expansion, (ii) weaker-than-
PE Pre Ex. (X) 40.1 33.0 27.3 22.7 expected consumer confidence, and iii) intense competition.
P/Cash Flow (X) 17.4 14.4 14.9 13.0
EV/EBITDA (X) 22.1 19.4 16.8 14.6 At A Glance
Net Div Yield (%) 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 Issued Capital (m shrs) 8,983
P/Book Value (X) 14.7 9.9 8.2 6.9 Mkt. Cap (Btm/US$m) 547,969 / 15,860
Net Debt/Equity (X) 4.0 2.6 2.0 1.6 Major Shareholders (%)
ROAE (%) 40.2 36.0 32.9 33.1 C.P. Merchandising (%) 30.5
Earnings Rev (%): 0 0 Charoen Pokphand Group (%) 10.2
Consensus EPS (Bt): 2.18 2.59 Thai NDVR (%) 4.8
Other Broker Recs: B: 25 S: 0 H: 2
Free Float (%) 58.3
Source of all data on this page: Company, DBSVTH, Bloomberg Finance 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 24.0
L.P ICB Industry : Consumer Services / Food & Drug Retailers
WHATS NEW
Sustainable growth
Decent earnings growth despite slowing SSSG in 1Q17F. Flexible product mix to support consumer trends. CPALLs
Consumer spending was sluggish but food retailers are still strategy is to add new products or services to the stores every
defensive plays. We expect CPALLs convenient store week. Its main concept revolves around offering the best-
operations (CVS) to deliver SSSG of 1.5%, vs a contraction in quality, exclusive products at its 7-eleven stores, as well as
4Q16 while its cash and carry business should post much being the first to sell newly-launched products. Meanwhile,
stronger SSSG from solid demand from HORECA and softer the product mix in each store is different from another and
competition following BIGCs business strategy to discontinue the company frequently changes its product mix to meet
giving discount coupons to big-basket customers. Overall, we changing consumer preferences.
estimate CPALLs 1Q17F revenue to rise by 8.8% y-o-y and
Maintain BUY. We like CPALL for its business resilience,
earnings to grow by 11.5% to Bt4.5bn. CVSs improving
continuous network expansion success, margin expansion
product mix and softer competition for cash and carry are
from improving product mix, and lower interest expense on
expected to cause earnings growth to outpace sales growth.
debt repayment and refinancing. Thus, we expect earnings
No sign of saturation despite aggressive expansion. As at growth of c.20% in the next three years. CPALL is now
end-FY16, CPALL operated 9,542 stores nationwide. The trading below its 5-year average PE of 30x, which is justified
company plans to open at least 700 CVS stores p.a. in the by our 3-year earnings growth forecast of 20%.
next five years, implying that CPALL will reach its previous
target of 10,000 within this year. Its next store network
target is 13,000 stores in five years and 15,000 in seven
years. We are not concerned about market saturation as we
think that the CVS market in Thailand still has room to grow.
Despite aggressive store rollouts, average customer visits per
store have been maintained at above 1,200 customers per
store per day, the highest among global 7-Eleven store
operators. We believe its aggressive outlet expansion is
achievable given its small-sized CVS store format, even in
Bangkok in view of the upcoming new mass transit lines.
Page 74
Company Guide
CP ALL
Same-store-sales (%)
CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH
5 5
5.1
least 700 outlets p.a. and has a milestone to reach 13,000 -2.9 -2.6
stores in the next five years. Of the total additional 700 stores 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
p.a., 90% of the new stores would be on a standalone basis Spending per ticket (Bt)
while another 10% will be at PTT gas stations. Furthermore,
68.2 65.5 66.9
more than half of new outlets would be in provincial areas as 63 63 64.3
The group will continue to add high-margin product lines like 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
ready-to-eat meals and from the health and beauty category New Stores
which yield higher margins than other products. 698 705 710 700 700
6630.9
4420.6
2210.3
0.0
2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
Page 75
Company Guide
CP ALL
of its business being cash generative and providing good 3.00 1.4
1.00 1.2
Share Price Drivers: 1.2
SSSG momentum is expected to remain positive, thanks to its Gross Debt to Equity (LHS) Asset Turnover (RHS)
25.0%
0.0%
2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
Company Background
CP ALL PCL was established in 1988 and is a flagship company Forward PE Band (x)
of Charoen Pokphand Groups marketing and distribution (x)
business. It is the leading operator of convenience store chains 43.1
1sd:24.7x
23.1
2sd:20.2x
18.1
May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17
PB Band (x)
(x)
15.7
14.7 +2sd:14.63x
13.7
+1sd:13.13x
12.7
11.7 Avg:11.64x
10.7
1sd:10.15x
9.7
8.7 2sd:8.65x
7.7
May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17
Page 76
Company Guide
CP ALL
Key Assumptions
FY Dec 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
Same-store-sales (%) (2.6) 0.90 2.40 5.00 5.00
Spending per ticket (Bt) 63.0 63.0 64.3 65.6 66.9
Customers/store/day 1,252 1,261 1,267 1,274 1,280
New Stores 698 705 710 700 700
Total stores at year end 8,127 8,832 9,542 10,242 10,942
Page 77
Company Guide
CP ALL
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) (1.0) 6.5 2.3 4.8 (1.2)
EBITDA Gth (%) 1.0 6.4 6.4 2.0 (1.4)
Opg Profit Gth (%) (0.3) 11.4 4.5 1.1 (0.4)
Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 1.8 19.1 4.0 4.5 (2.4)
Margins
Gross Margins (%) 22.1 21.8 21.6 21.8 22.1
Opg Profit Margins (%) 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.4 6.5
Net Profit Margins (%) 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8
Page 78
Company Guide
CP ALL
Bt
12- mt h
12 Dat e of Closing
S.No. T arget Rat ing
63.70 6 Report Pric e
Pric e
8 10
11 1: 12 May 16 48.00 60.00 BUY
2: 24 May 16 47.75 60.00 BUY
58.70 7 9 3: 25 May 16 48.25 60.00 BUY
13
4: 02 J un 16 49.00 60.00 BUY
5: 03 Aug 16 52.00 60.00 BUY
53.70 6: 31 Aug 16 62.25 75.00 BUY
7: 06 Sep 16 60.50 75.00 BUY
4 5 8: 03 Oct 16 61.00 75.00 BUY
48.70
2
9: 20 Oct 16 60.75 75.00 BUY
10: 04 Nov 16 60.75 75.00 BUY
1 3
11: 10 Nov 16 63.00 75.00 BUY
43.70 12: 06 Jan 17 63.75 75.00 BUY
May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 13: 24 Feb 17 59.75 75.00 BUY
Not e : Share price and Target price are adjusted for corporate actions.
Source: DBSVTH
Analyst: Namida ARTISPONG
THAI-CAC Declared
Corporate Governance CG Rating 2016 n/a
Page 79
Regional Company Guide
Robinsons Retail Holdings
Version 6 | Bloomberg: RRHI PM | Reuters: RRHI.PS Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Better balance sheet and inventory controls More upside risk earnings potential than downside. 1.) Passage
of the tax reform packages could provide tailwinds to our
Maintain BUY, TP raised to P101.00 conservative sales forecast of 11% (CAGR FY17F-FY19F). The
lowering of income tax rates should result in positive wealth
Price Relative effect to middle-income households RRHIs target market. 2.)
Margins are set to improve as the slack from the closure of non-
performing stores is expected to fade in FY18F. RRHI reported
lower operating margins in the past two years mainly due to
closing costs of non-performing stores. 3.) Future M&As, which
are not factored in our estimates could provide further earnings
upside.. Since its IPO, RRHI has consistently delivered on EPS-
accretive acquisitions.
ed: TH / sa: AS
Page 80
Company Guide
Robinsons Retail Holdings
GFA growth %
CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH
Earnings Drivers:
Growth via organic GFA expansion and margin expansion.
Due to the higher number of non-performing stores that
were closed in FY15 (48 stores closed), RRHIs store network
grew by only 179 stores, representing a 9.7% increase in
gross floor area (GFA) in FY15. This resulted in slower revenue
growth (from 19.5% y-o-y in FY14 to 13% y-o-y in FY15),
and operating margins contracted by 4bps in FY15. In FY16,
RRHI continued to close down non-performing stores but to a Same-store-sales growth %
lesser extent relative to FY15. As a result, margins stabilised.
Moving into FY17F/FY18F/FY19F, we expect fewer store
closures and GFA to expand 8.0%/7.4%/6.8%. These should
support revenue growth and steady/improve operating
margins.
Consumer confidence is key. RRHI reported robust SSSG of
6.7% y-o-y in FY16 underpinned by still strong consumer
confidence post elections. We do not think the strong SSSG
figures reported in FY16 can be sustained in FY17F. SSSG
should normalise to 3-4% as the boost from election-related
spending wears off. Consumer confidence will be key post
elections. Given the high approval rating of President Duterte Source: Company, DBS Bank
amid his controversial war on drugs and anti-western
comments, we see no reason for consumer confidence to
deteriorate in the near-to-medium term. Furthermore, the
stronger post-election GDP and the likely approval of the tax
reform proposal (likely to be implemented in 2H17) should
underpin higher consumer confidence. Against this backdrop,
RRHI is best positioned to benefit given its broad and
countrywide exposure in the Philippine modern retail space.
Acquisitions and expansion into other retail formats. RRHI
continues to be on a lookout for value-enhancing acquisitions
and opportunities to expand its retail format. So far, only one
acquisition in 2016 has been announced (51% of The
Generics Pharmacy). We see RRHI announcing at least one
acquisition in FY17F. RRHI has a large war chest that is more
than enough to fund a large and high-profile M&A. Our
FY17F-19F earnings do not take into account any
acquisitions.
Industry backdrop is conducive for growth. Low penetration
of modern retail (25% overall and 30% grocery based on
Euromonitor data as of end-2016); rising household
disposable income (6.2% CAGR in FY00-16) which is
underpinned by jobs growth, low inflation, and increase in
compensation of government employees moving forward;
and favourable demographics, are factors supporting store
expansion in the Philippine modern retail space. We think
Dutertes administration will allocate more resources to
Visayas and Mindanao. These are areas where modern retail
is very much underpenetrated and where RRHI is ahead
relative to its main competitors.
Page 81
Company Guide
Robinsons Retail Holdings
Page 82
Company Guide
Robinsons Retail Holdings
Key Assumptions
FY Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F
GFA growth % 9.70 7.30 8.00 7.40 6.80
Same-store-sales growth 4.10 6.70 3.00 3.00 3.00
Segmental Breakdown
FY Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F
Revenues (P m)
Supermarket 43,238.7 48,465.1 54,609.5 60,320.7 66,318.8
Department Store 14,906.0 15,827.5 17,681.8 20,034.9 22,385.6
Hardware 9,871.8 11,128.6 12,775.4 14,445.5 16,173.5
Convenience Store 5,493.0 5,665.5 6,227.7 6,784.1 7,354.9
At the low end of
Drug Store 8,069.5 11,934.2 13,473.6 15,350.6 17,224.0
managements guidance
Specialty Stores 10,358.6 13,416.1 14,563.3 15,450.2 16,391.1
Adjustments (1,055.1) (1,143.7) (1,296.2) (1,438.0) (1,584.2)
Total 90,883 105,293 118,035 130,948 144,264
EBIT (P m)
Supermarket 2,380.22 2,706.86 3,077.34 3,459.49 3,869.82
Department Store 919.10 844.10 951.84 1,098.54 1,249.82
Hardware 747.73 841.96 985.72 1,136.25 1,288.35
Convenience Store 6.11 (54.79) (57.11) (55.43) (52.74)
Drug Store 311.48 628.11 715.87 830.94 949.58
Specialty Stores 373.54 535.72 581.53 616.94 654.51
Adjustments (9.34) (9.08) (10.34) (11.71) (13.16)
Total 4,729 5,493 6,245 7,075 7,946
EBIT Margins (%)
Supermarket 5.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8%
Department Store 6.2% 5.3% 5.4% 5.5% 5.6%
Hardware 7.6% 7.6% 7.7% 7.9% 8.0%
Convenience Store 0.1% -1.0% -0.9% -0.8% -0.7%
Drug Store 3.9% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.5%
Specialty Stores 3.6% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Adjustments 5.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8%
Total 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5
Page 83
Company Guide
Robinsons Retail Holdings
Income Statement (P m)
FY Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F
Revenue 90,883 105,293 118,035 130,948 144,264
Cost of Goods Sold (71,134) (82,267) (92,092) (102,023) (112,250)
Gross Profit 19,749 23,026 25,943 28,925 32,013
Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (15,020) (17,533) (19,698) (21,850) (24,067)
Operating Profit 4,729 5,493 6,245 7,075 7,946
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 295 331 331 331 331
Associates & JV Inc 40 103 103 103 103
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 784 741 813 870 982
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 1
Pre-tax Profit 5,848 6,667 7,493 8,380 9,365
Tax (1,271) (1,471) (1,653) (1,849) (2,066)
Minority Interest (235) (366) (263) (294) (328)
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0
Net Profit 4,342 4,830 5,576 6,236 6,968 Conservative gross
Net Profit before Except. 4,342 4,830 5,576 6,236 6,967 margin assumptions
EBITDA 6,712 7,964 8,955 10,022 11,139 relative to historical
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 13.0 15.9 12.1 10.9 10.2
EBITDA Gth (%) 14.2 18.7 12.4 11.9 11.1
Opg Profit Gth (%) 5.4 16.2 13.7 13.3 12.3
Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 21.9 11.2 15.4 11.8 11.7
Margins & Ratio
Gross Margins (%) 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.2
Opg Profit Margin (%) 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5
Net Profit Margin (%) 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8
ROAE (%) 10.4 10.6 11.2 11.4 11.6
ROA (%) 7.1 6.8 7.1 7.5 7.6
ROCE (%) 8.0 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.6
Div Payout Ratio (%) 16.8 19.4 18.7 19.3 19.3
Net Interest Cover (x) NM NM NM NM NM
Source: Company, DBS Bank
Page 84
Company Guide
Robinsons Retail Holdings
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) (17.7) 13.0 (0.6) 23.6 (18.3)
EBITDA Gth (%) (37.1) 52.1 (0.8) 30.0 (33.4)
Opg Profit Gth (%) (44.4) 54.4 (4.0) 38.3 (37.5)
Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (42.7) 57.8 3.3 19.6 (34.9)
Margins
Gross Margins (%) 21.2 21.8 21.9 22.4 22.2
Opg Profit Margins (%) 4.0 5.4 5.3 5.9 4.5
Net Profit Margins (%) 3.5 4.8 5.0 4.9 3.9 Improving margins y-o-y
Balance Sheet (P m)
FY Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F
Page 85
Company Guide
Robinsons Retail Holdings
Page 86
Company Guide
Robinsons Retail Holdings
Page 87
Regional Company Guide
Puregold Price Club
Version 5 | Bloomberg: PGOLD PM | Reuters: PGOLD.PM Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
192
47.0
172 Speed bumps ahead. S&R is a bright spot, but it is dimming.
42.0 152
Come 2H17, the high-base effect will kick in and the impact of
promotional sales events will likely to lessen. Competition from
37.0 132
112
32.0
92 Landers Superstore and weaker domestic currency should put
27.0
May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16
72
May-17
pressure on gross margins longer. And unless S&R rein in
operating expenses, EBIT margins will likely contract further.
Puregold Price Club (LHS) Relative PCOMP (RHS)
Slower revenue growth for Puregold stores should drag on
Forecasts and Valuation longer as inflation picks up and the impact of new stores on
FY Dec (P m) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F revenue lessens.
Revenue 9,717 11,259 12,370 13,532
EBITDA 885 997 1,087 1,189
Valuation:
Pre-tax Profit 710 792 862 945
Net Profit 500 553 603 661 HOLD, TP at P41.90, based on SOTP valuation methodology.
Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 500 553 603 661 This implies PE of 19x FY17F and 18x FY18F earnings.
EPS (P) 1.80 1.99 2.17 2.38
EPS Pre Ex. (P) 1.80 1.99 2.17 2.38 Key Risks to Our View:
EPS Gth (%) 11 10 9 10 Key risks are: 1) intense competition from big modern and
EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 11 10 9 10
mom-and-pop (relating to Puregold) retail chains; 2) fewer
Diluted EPS (P) 1.80 1.99 2.17 2.38
Net DPS (P) 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.33 number of new store rollouts, hence less pronounced impact on
BV Per Share (P) 13.8 15.5 17.4 19.4 sales growth; and 3) competition from Landers Superstore,
PE (X) 23.9 21.6 19.8 18.1 stronger USD, inventory management, rising opex, and QSR
PE Pre Ex. (X) 23.9 21.6 19.8 18.1 (relating to S&R).
P/Cash Flow (X) 35.9 44.3 24.4 18.3
EV/EBITDA (X) 13.4 12.1 11.0 9.9
At A Glance
Net Div Yield (%) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
P/Book Value (X) 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.2 Issued Capital (m shrs) 2,765
Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH 0.0 0.0 CASH Mkt. Cap (P/US$m) 11,877 / 2,390
ROAE (%) 13.8 13.5 13.2 12.9 Major Shareholders (%)
Earnings Rev (%): - - Cosco Capital Inc 51.0
Consensus EPS (P): 2.3 2.6 Co Lucio Lao 7.6
Other Broker Recs: B: 9 S: 2 H: 1 Co Susan Pe 6.5
Free Float (%) 34.9
Source of all data on this page: Company, DBS Bank, 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 3.5
Bloomberg Finance L.P
ICB Industry : Consumer Services / Food & Drug Retailers
1Q17 net profit up 10.5% y-o-y Speed bumps ahead. No change in forecast. We are
projecting 9.2%/9.7% net profit growth for FY17F/FY18F. The
1Q17 net profit up 10.5% y-o-y - in line. PGOLD reported slower earnings growth is due to lesser impact of new stores
net income of P1.3bn (+10.5% y-o-y) in 1Q17, in line with our on revenue growth, higher inflation, and competition. While
estimate but trails consensus. Consolidated revenue growth S&R is a bright spot, it is dimming. Come 2H17, the high-base
was slower (+11.2% y-o-y) and tepid sales growth of Puregold effect will kick in and the impact of promotional sales events is
stores (7.7% y-o-y) dragged down the robust performance of likely to lessen. Competition from Landers Superstore and
S&R stores (27.6% y-o-y). While gross margins rose 16bps y-o- weaker domestic currency should put pressure on gross
y, translation to earnings was lower on higher operating margins longer. And unless S&R rein in operating expenses,
expenses. Consolidated gross/net profit margins were EBIT margins will likely contract further. Slower revenue
16.8%/4.6% in 1Q17. Same-stores-sales growth (SSSG) was growth for Puregold stores should drag on longer as inflation
robust at 6.1% for the quarter despite coming from a high picks up and impact of new stores on revenue lessens. Cash
base. conversion cycle (CCC) will continue to deteriorate on rising
inventory levels and management's preference on paying
Devil in the details part deux. While in line with our estimate, suppliers early to avail discounts.
the slower revenue growth for Puregold branded stores is
Valuation
likely to remain sticky this year. Higher inflation and impact of
new store rollouts becoming less pronounced (evident in the HOLD, TP at P41.90, based on SOTP valuation methodology.
solid post-election SSSG of 4.5% in 1Q17) have translated to Our TP implies 19x FY17F PE below its historical mean
slower sales growth of 7.7% y-o-y. Meanwhile, margins have valuation. Aside from the lower earnings projection, we are
ticked up for the segment due to windfall from price increase also factoring in a net debt position for PGOLD in FY17 due to
and as cost-saving measures continue to bear fruit. Puregold deteriorating CCC.
branded stores' 1Q17 net profit came in at P876m or 12.9%
y-o-y growth.
For S&R, the robust sales of 27.6% y-o-y was driven by 13%
SSSG, contribution from new stores, and the promotional sales
event held from March 31-April 2. However, the strong sales
growth did not translate to better profitability as margins were
squeezed. 1Q17 Gross margins contracted by 110bps y-o-y
due to weaker local currency, promotional sales event, and
competition. EBIT and net profit margins contracted further on
higher operating expenses from its aggressive new store
rollout. Net profit came in at P399m and growth was slow at
5.6% y-o-y.
Page 89
Company Guide
Puregold Price Club
Page 90
Company Guide
Puregold Price Club
stores every year till 2020. In the next three years, we forecast 4%
100,000
Puregold/S&R stores to grow net selling area (NSA) by 2%
48,000/30,930 sqm or at 3.7%/14.4% 3-year CAGR. Our 0 0%
assumptions take into account smaller-sized stores for FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F
S&R. lhs Puregold, lhs y-o-y Growth, rhs
Puregold given that the expansion is focused outside Metro
Manila. M&A activity is a bonus and an upside risk to our Same-Store-Sales Growth
forecast. Management is constantly looking for M&A 8.0% 40.0%
opportunities, aiming to secure at least one acquisition a year 35.0%
6.0%
on average. 30.0%
Slower sales growth for Puregold branded stores. We forecast 4.0% 25.0%
revenues from Puregold branded stores to grow by 7.0%
20.0%
2.0%
(FY16-19F CAGR) and margins to be stable in FY17F/18F. The
15.0%
tepid pace in sales growth takes into account: 1) 0.0%
10.0%
normalisation of same-store metrics as PGOLD was a 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17
5.0%
beneficiary of election-related spending in FY16; 2) impact of -2.0%
0.0%
new store rollouts on revenues to become less pronounced -4.0%
given the slower expansion in NSA; and 3) rising inflation as -5.0%
their lower household income. On a brighter note, overall Consolidated, lhs Puregold, lhs S&R, rhs
liquor and cigarettes, nationwide smoking ban, etc.) and 25.0% 49.0
rising competition from Landers Superstore could have an Gross Margin, lhs Operating Margin, lhs Php:US$ Average, rhs
adverse impact on S&Rs revenues and margins. Landers
Source: Company, DBS Bank
Superstore directly competes with S&Rs offerings. It opened
two Manila stores in 2016, with two more set to open in
2017 (Alabang and Cebu). Furthermore, weaker peso and
rising operating expenses (as a result of its aggressive
expansion plans) may continue to put pressure on S&Rs
margins longer than so far assumed. Taking these into
account, we still see earnings growth of 7% (FY16-19F CAGR)
for S&R, with net margins expected to decline 70ppts/30ppts
in FY17F/18F.
Page 91
Company Guide
Puregold Price Club
Net debt position for the first time since 2010. PGOLD 1.9
0.20
reported a net debt position of P1.0bn in FY16. Cash
1.8
conversion cycle deteriorated to 42 days in FY16 from 32 0.15
if its cash conversion cycle days continue to lengthen. Gross Debt to Equity (LHS) Asset Turnover (RHS)
Capital Expenditure
Pm
Share Price Drivers: 400.0
350.0
Return to net cash position, if cash conversion cycle improves.
300.0
Unlikely to happen in FY17F given rising inventory levels in 250.0
anticipation of higher prices and managements preference to 200.0
Better performance from both Puregold and S&R stores. For 100.0
50.0
PGOLD to trade at higher multiples, earnings growth must
0.0
pick up pace. In order for this to occur, both Puregold and 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
S&R must deliver better performances. The industry backdrop Capital Expenditure (-)
8.0%
6.0%
Key Risks:
Competition. PGOLD does not only compete with big-chain 4.0%
better value proposition due to less regulatory oversight (i.e. Forward PE Band (x)
flexibility in declaring taxable income). (x)
Expansion constraints. Availability of space, especially in key 31.3
gravity of the price war on high turnover items. S&Rs May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17
expansion into the QSR business may negatively impact S&R PB Band (x)
sales, as it may divert traffic and curb impulse purchases. (x)
4.3
+2sd:4.07x
Company Background 3.8
+1sd:3.57x
Puregold Price Club Inc. (PGOLD) operates as a retailer in 3.3
Page 92
Company Guide
Puregold Price Club
Key Assumptions
FY Dec 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
Puregold (NSA Growth) 0.09 0.13 0.04 0.04 0.04
S&R (NSA Growth) 0.16 0.16 0.22 0.17 0.14
Segmental Breakdown
FY Dec 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
Revenues (P m)
Puregold 68,921 79,351 90,939 97,181 103,821
S&R 15,770 17,821 21,653 26,515 31,498
Total 84,691 97,172 112,592 123,696 135,320
Operating profit (P m)
Slowing NSA growth due
Puregold 3,877 4,549 5,176 5,533 5,936
to high base
S&R 2,601 2,601 2,921 3,256 3,677
Total 6,478 7,150 8,097 8,789 9,613
Operating profit Margins
Puregold 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7
S&R 16.5 14.6 13.5 12.3 11.7
Total 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.1
Income Statement (P m)
FY Dec 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
Revenue 84,691 97,172 112,589 123,696 135,320
Cost of Goods Sold (69,937) (80,683) (94,051) (103,337) (112,997)
Gross Profit 14,754 16,489 18,538 20,359 22,323
Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (8,276) (9,339) (10,441) (11,570) (12,710)
Operating Profit 6,478 7,150 8,097 8,789 9,613
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 27 18 (23) 0 0
Associates & JV Inc (17) (11) (68) (75) (83)
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (30) (52) (89) (96) (80)
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 0
Pre-tax Profit 6,458 7,105 7,917 8,618 9,450 Upper end of
Tax (1,938) (2,103) (2,391) (2,585) (2,835) managements guidance
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 of 8%-10%
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0
Net Profit 4,520 5,002 5,526 6,033 6,615
Net Profit before Except. 4,520 5,002 5,526 6,033 6,615
EBITDA 8,143 8,854 9,973 10,874 11,894
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 15.7 14.7 15.9 9.9 9.4
EBITDA Gth (%) 18.5 8.7 12.6 9.0 9.4
Opg Profit Gth (%) 18.8 10.4 13.3 8.5 9.4
Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 14.2 10.6 10.5 9.2 9.7
Margins & Ratio
Gross Margins (%) 17.4 17.0 16.5 16.5 16.5
Opg Profit Margin (%) 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.1
Net Profit Margin (%) 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.9
ROAE (%) 13.9 13.8 13.5 13.2 12.9
ROA (%) 8.8 8.9 8.9 8.9 9.1
ROCE (%) 11.5 11.4 11.1 10.9 11.0
Div Payout Ratio (%) 18.4 16.6 15.0 13.8 13.7
Net Interest Cover (x) 219.0 138.0 91.2 92.0 119.7
Source: Company, DBS Bank
Page 93
Company Guide
Puregold Price Club
Balance Sheet (P m)
FY Dec 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
Page 94
Company Guide
Puregold Price Club
P
50.20 12- mt h
Dat e of Closing
S.No. T arget Rat ing
Report Price
48.20 Price
1: 04 J ul 16 42.65 50.00 BUY
46.20 2
2: 11 Aug 16 45.20 50.00 BUY
3: 12 Aug 16 44.10 50.00 BUY
44.20
1 4: 15 Nov 16 40.90 50.00 BUY
3
42.20 4 5: 13 Apr 17 42.20 41.90 HOLD
5
40.20
38.20
36.20
34.20
May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17
Not e : Share price and Target price are adjusted for corporate actions.
Page 95
Indonesia Company Guide
Matahari Putra Prima
Version 4 | Bloomberg: MPPA IJ | Reuters: MPPA.JK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
WHATS NEW
Price-cutting strategy should put margin under pressure in the near term
Competing through pricing. MPPA has lowered the selling prolonged weak demand and the impact of intensifying
price of several popular items with the aim of increasing its competition to MPPAs SSSG. We have assumed 0%/6%
competitiveness against smaller-scale regional supermarkets SSSG in FY17F/FY18F. We have also lowered our EBIT margin
and minimarkets. Around the Lebaran season, the company as we expect higher opex from AR impairment. We now
cut the selling price of 5,000 items (c. 12% of its total SKUs) forecast MPPA to book a net loss of Rp83bn in FY17 and a
and launched a special promotion called Turun Harga to net profit of Rp40bn in FY18.
boost traffic. During our recent basket price comparison
Maintain Fully Valued with lower TP of Rp450. We have
survey at MPPAs outlets at Bandung Indah Plaza and Yogya
switched our valuation from relative PE valuation to DCF as
Supermarket at Riau Junction, which are only 300 metres
we expect MPPA to still record a net loss in FY17. We use
apart, we found that MPPA has managed to narrow its price
11.4% WACC and 5% sustainable growth rate in our three-
gap over its competitor. Based on our survey, our basket of
stage DCF model. Our TP of Rp450 implies 9x/6x EV/EBITDA
eleven daily need items was priced 1% lower in MPPAs
FY17F/FY18F and 1x PBV FY17F/FY18F.
outlet than that in the Yogya outlet.
Page 97
Company Guide
Matahari Putra Prima
Earnings revision
2017F 2018F
Old Ne w Cha nge Old Ne w Cha nge
Revenue (net) 15,165 14,097 -7% 16,534 15,580 -6%
Gross profit 2,519 2,334 -7% 2,746 2,610 -5%
EBIT 337 (25) -107% 408 154 -62%
EBITDA 739 365 -51% 859 584 -32%
Net Profit 196 (83) -142% 250 40 -84%
DCF assumption
WA CC K ey assumpt ions
Risk-free rate 7.5% T erminal grow t h rat e 5.0%
ERP 5.3%
Beta 1.0 Sales CA GR
Debt/equity 0.4 2017F -2022F 7.9%
Tax rate 25.0% 2022F -2027F 6.1%
Cost of equity 12.8% A v g, EBIT margin
Cost of debt 7.9% 2017F -2022F 0.7%
WA CC 11.4% 2023F -2027F 1.3%
Present v alue A v g, w ork ing c apit al/sales
2017F-2022F 79 2017F -2022F -0.4%
2023F-2027F 645 2023F -2027F -0.3%
Terminal v alue 2,497 A v g, capex/sales
Sum of PV 3,221 2017F -2022F -2.8%
Net cash (debt) (822) 2023F -2027F -1.5%
Equity value 2,399 A v g, deprec iat ion/sales
No. of shares 5,378 2017F -2022F 2.5%
Equit y v alue per share 450 2023F -2027F 2.0%
Peers comparison
Company T ic k er M ark et cap PE EV /EBIT DA Pric e/sales ROE (%) Net DER
(USD mn) 17F 18F 17F 18F 17F 18F 17F end of 17F
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA IJ 251 N/A 83.0 10.7 6.7 0.24 0.22 (3.5) 0.4
Dairy F arm DF I SP 11,117 22.9 21.2 14.2 13.2 0.95 0.90 30.2 0.1
Sheng Siong Group SSG SP 1,481 20.6 19.4 16.2 15.4 1.84 1.79 26.9 Net cash
Big C Supercenter* BIGC TB 5,395 24.2 22.0 14.0 12.9 1.69 1.55 13.8 N/A
Siam Makro* MAKRO TB 5,032 27.5 24.2 17.5 15.5 0.91 0.83 37.1 N/A
Puregold Price Club PGOLD PM 2,519 21.3 19.4 12.3 11.2 1.03 0.95 13.2 Net cash
Robinson Retail RRHI PM 2,400 21.8 19.6 13.5 12.0 1.03 0.93 11.2 Net cash
A v erage 23.0 20.9 14.6 13.4 1.24 1.16 22.1
Page 98
Company Guide
Matahari Putra Prima
Critical Factors
Store productivity. We think that competition among
hypermarket operators in the Greater Jakarta area has been
intensifying, with operators revamping stores and pushing
promotions to boost demand. The growing number of
convenience stores also adds to the competitive pressure. We
think this could potentially impede the companys revenue
growth going forward, as growth in sales productivity per sqm
has become harder to achieve (as evident in the last three Retail space (sqm)
years). We estimate revenue to grow at a CAGR of 7% over
FY16-18F, driven mostly by new store openings.
Page 99
Company Guide
Matahari Putra Prima
Appendix 1: A look at the company's historical performance what drives its share price?
3,000
0.80
2,500 B
0.60
2,000 A1
1,500 0.40
1,000
0.20
500
0 -
Oct-10 May-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 Feb-13 Sep-13 Apr-14 Nov-14 Jun-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P, DBSVI, DBS Bank
B: Profitability
We have also seen a growing correlation between MPPAs share
price and its profitability since 2015. The subsequent chart
shows that MPPA saw its share price derating in 2015 to 1Q17
as intensifying competition and operating deleverage crimped
its EBIT margin.
Page 100
Company Guide
Matahari Putra Prima
Key Risks:
Weakness in domestic consumption. Lower consumer
spending would naturally reduce the companys revenue .
Furthermore, consumers tend to hold off purchases of durable
goods, such as electronics, gadgets, and household
equipment, which typically carry higher margins. This could ROE (%)
lead to margin contraction for MPPA.
5.0
-2sd
Company Background 0.0
Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17
Matahari Putra Prima is a mass grocery retail store operator in
Indonesia. Its store formats include hypermarkets under the PB Band (x)
name Hypermart, supermarkets under Foodmart, as well 12.0
as health and beauty stores under Boston Health & Beauty.
10.0
More than 90% of the companys revenue is derived from its
+2sd
hypermarket stores, and currently, it is the second largest 8.0
Page 101
Company Guide
Matahari Putra Prima
Key Assumptions
FY Dec 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
Sales per sqm (Rp mn) 20.0 20.0 18.0 18.0 19.0
Retail space (sqm) 698,763 734,862 767,807 800,258 834,360
Segmental Breakdown
FY Dec 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
Gross Revenues (Rpbn)
Direct sales 13,497 13,713 13,436 14,004 15,476
Consignment sales 791 711 661 689 762
Total 14,288 14,425 14,097 14,693 16,238
Gross Profit (Rpbn)
Direct sales 2,261 2,180 2,202 2,241 2,507
Consignment sales 94.0 89.0 92.0 94.0 104
Total 2,354 2,269 2,294 2,334 2,610
Gross Margins (%)
Direct sales 16.8 15.9 16.4 16.0 16.2
Consignment sales 11.8 12.5 13.8 13.6 13.6
Total 16.5 15.7 16.3 15.9 16.1
Page 102
Company Guide
Matahari Putra Prima
Page 103
Company Guide
Matahari Putra Prima
Page 104
SMC Research
The Business
Malaysia.. 7-Eleven (M) is the sole
Dominant convenience store player in Malaysia
operator of 7-Eleven convenience stores within Malaysia and a licensee
Price Relative
RM Relative Index
for Brunei. The group has a commanding share of about 82% market
2.1 share in the standalone convenience store segment. The group has
2.0 206
1.9 2,122 stores as at 31 Dec 2016 across all states in Malaysia.
186
1.8
1.7 166
1.6
146
Acceleration of new stores rollout and stores refurbishment.
refurbishment. Apart from
1.5
1.4 126 improving its infrastructure (IT & supply chain) and offers better product
1.3
1.2
106 mix to drive its earnings, the group has been in aggressive expansion
1.1
May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16
86 mode as it believes that the Malaysian market is still under penetrated.
In the last three years, it has managed to open 591 new stores and
7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings (LHS) Relative KLCI (RHS)
Forecasts and Valuation refurbished existing 600 stores or an average 200 stores p.a. This was in
FY Dec (RMm
RMm) 2016A
2016A 2017F
2017F 2018F
2018F 2019F
2019F line with its guided strategy by management when it was relisted back
Revenue 2,103 2,309 2,542 2,804 in 2014. As a result, its topline growth remains resilient despite the
EBITDA 131 146 170 188 challenging operating environment. We estimate that the group will
Pre-tax Profit 70.8 83.0 96.4 108 continue its expansion plan by opening an average of 200 new stores
Net Profit 52.2 61.2 71.1 79.8 per annum between 2017 and 2019.
Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 58.0 61.2 71.1 79.8
EPS (sen) 4.70 5.51 6.40 7.19
EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 5.22 5.51 6.40 7.19 Fair value at RM1.
RM1.58
1.58.
58. 7-Eleven (M) is currently trading at an FY17 PE of
EPS Gth (%) 4 17 16 12 29x, which is in line with its regional peers. Although the group offers
EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 8 5 16 12 one of the best exposures to a potential consumption recovery story
Diluted EPS (sen) 4.70 5.51 6.40 7.19 with an aggressive new store expansion plan supporting topline growth,
Net DPS (sen) 4.70 4.41 5.12 5.75 we are concerned that high operating expenses arising from new store
BV Per Share (sen) 3.17 4.27 5.55 6.98 expansion could weigh on its earnings. Furthermore, a slow recovery in
PE (X) 34.1 29.2 25.0 22.3
consumer sentiments could cap its near term earnings growth. Our fair
PE Pre Ex. (X) 30.6 29.2 25.0 22.3
P/Cash Flow (X) 23.6 13.1 11.9 10.7 value for 7-Eleven (M) stands at RM1.58, based on 29x PE, which is in
EV/EBITDA (X) 14.1 12.5 10.7 9.5 line with its regional peers average PE.
Net Div Yield (%) 2.9 2.8 3.2 3.6
P/Book Value (X) 50.5 37.5 28.8 22.9 At A Glance
Net Debt/Equity (X) 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,111
ROAE (%) 50.8 148.2 130.4 114.7 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 1,778 / 402
Major Shareholders (%)
Consensus EPS (sen):: 5.50 6.40 N/A Berjaya Retail Berhad 48.5
Other Broker Recs: B: 1 S: 3 H: 2 Isotrema Sdn Bhd 7.5
Genesis Asset Managers LLP 6.0
ICB Industry : Consumer Services
ICB Sector: Food & Drug Retailers Free Float (%) 49.8
Principal Business: 7-Eleven (M) is the sole operator of 7-Eleven 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 0.27
convenience stores within Malaysia and the licensee for Brunei. The
group is a dominant convenience store player in Malaysia, having
about 82% market share in the standalone convenience store
segment.
Source of all data on this page: Company, DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
*This Equity Explorer report represents a preliminary assessment of the subject company, and does not represent initiation into DBSVs coverage
universe. As such DBSV does not commit to regular updates on an ongoing basis. The rating system is distinct from stocks in our regular coverage
universe and is explained further on the back page of this report.
Page 105
Regional Equity Explorer
7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings
REVENUE DRIVERS
Chart 1: 5year Revenue and GP Margin
The leading convenience store player in Malaysia
Malaysia.. The group is a
dominant convenience store player in Malaysia with ~82% market RMm %
32.0
share in the standalone convenience store segment. The group has
2,000.0
31.0
2,122 stores as at 31 Dec 2016, serving ~900,000 people per day.
30.0
The sheer size of its operations has provided the group with high 1,500.0
29.0
economies of scale and strong bargaining position in sourcing its 28.0
1,000.0
products, which serve as strong competitive edge compared to the 27.0
smaller players. 500.0 26.0
25.0
wider selection of fresh food, beverage and non-food products, (2) Source: Company, DBS Bank
seating area, and (3) free Wi-Fi. In 2016, the group had renovated
202 stores, converted 35 stores to Next Gen and 124 stores to Table 1: Next Gen and QWFS stores
QWFS. We expect the group to continue to refurbish 200 stores, Next Gen QWFS
QWFS
convert 50 stores to Next Gen and 100 stores to QWFS per year A store with a complete food Moderate food service
going forward. service infrastructure: infrastructure:
Hot Beverages Hot Beverages
Expanding
Expanding high margin products. Tobacco sales typically constitute Cold Beverages Cold Beverages
the largest component of the groups revenue and yet have low Mash Potato Machine Mash Potato Machine
profit margins. As such, management is focusing on achieving a Open Cold Case Fresh Bakery Display
better product mix and expanding its high-margin product Fresh Bakery Display Up Right Chiller Fresh to
categories such as food and beverages, non-food like Health & Roller Grill Go
Beauty Aid (HABA), to cushion the impact of rising costs such as Noodle Station Triple Sink with Hot
minimum wage increase. The strategies 7-11 (M) are currently Speed Oven Water
pursing include continuing to introduce more new store keeping Triple Sink with Hot Food Captain
units (SKU) and expanding in-house products (Slurpee, Big Gulp and Water Seating area
Coffee). In FY2016, 7-11 (M) had introduced 455 new SKUs. By Food Captain Free WIFI
focusing on higher value product offerings, we believe this will Seating area
definitely help the group to improve its profit margin as well as Free Wi-Fi
provide the flexibility for the group to make necessary price
adjustments. Sales from HABA in FY2016 was supported by strong Source: Company
c.11% growth in confectionary sales while non-alcoholic beverages
and snack grew 3-5% excluding GST. The growth has helped the
group to sustain its margin c.31%.
Page 106
Regional Equity Explorer
7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings
GROWTH PROSPECTS
Chart 3: MIER Consumer Sentiment Index and Private
Good proxy to possible pick
pick-up in consumer recovery.
recovery. FY16 results Consumption Growth
were impacted by weak consumer spending, which saw its same Private consumption growth (lhs)
sa % q-o-q
stores same growth (SSSG) contracted by 2.2% in 4Q16 and 1.5% Consumer sentiments index (rhs)
3.5 130
for the whole of FY16 (excluding GST). However, thanks to its
3.0 120
aggressive expansion plan, its overall FY16 sales actually increased
2.5 110
4.8% vs ~3.0% for the total FMCG market, largely supported by 2.0
100
contribution from new stores. Going forward, we understand that 1.5
90
the group is looking to revise selling prices to protect its margin. 1.0
80
Nevertheless, we think price revisions could be minimal at this 0.5
0.0 70
juncture due to an on-going challenging operating environment and
-0.5 60
subdued consumer spending recovery. However, should there be a
-1.0 50
pick-up in consumer sentiment; we believe that the group should
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
offer good exposure to a consumption recovery story in Malaysia
given (1) its vast network, and (2) its high operating leverage from
Source: Department of Statistics, MIER
selling price revision.
Better infrastructure.
infrastructure 7-Eleven (M) has successfully implemented the
Integrated Retail Information System (IRIS) system in April 2016 and
it is currently in the stability phase to ensure better control in
reporting and analytical processes. The group has also further
enhanced its supply chain model to optimise its inventory
management. This has resulted in its fulfilment level to stores
remaining high at ~90-94%.
Source: Company
Page 107
Regional Equity Explorer
7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings
MANAGEMENT & STRATEGY Competitive environment. Despite being the largest convenience
Strong management team led by an F&B veteran. The key store operator in Malaysia, it still faces stiff competition from other
management of the group has many years of working experience in convenience stores such as KK Supermart, Circle K and Bison. To a
their respective fields and is led by CEO Mr Gary Thomas Brown, certain extent, it also competes with petro marts, mini markets or
who has vast experience in the F&B, household products retailing, even supermarkets since we think that some of product offerings
manufacturing and wholesaling industries, having worked in are quite similar and the location of these stores are quite close to
reputable companies such as Sara Lee Group, Dairy Farm, Pos Ad each other, especially in the Central Business District (CBD), urban
Group.
and suburban areas.
RISK FACTORS
Renewal of regulatory licenses. 7-Eleven (M)s operations require a
Higher-
Higher-than-
than-expected store operating expenses.
expenses Total FY16 number of licences. The key one being the Area License Agreement
expenses (store and general & administration) rose 6.0% y-o-y and (ALA) between the group with 7-Eleven USA, which allows 7-Eleven
store operating expenses were impacted by various cost increases (M) to operate and grant sub-franchises 7-Eleven convenience stores
due to new store expansion and depreciation. They were also in Malaysia and Brunei. This ALA expires in 30 Nov 2033 and is
significantly impacted by minimum wage increase of 10% from 1 renewable for an additional 10 years, subject to material compliance
July 2016. We expect the overall expenses to increase in tandem with the terms therein. Nonetheless, 7-Eleven Inc reserves the right
with its expansion plan and store refurbishment but larger-than- to reject or even revoke the ALA before its expiration.
expected costs increase could erode its profit and affect its business
strategy.
Page 108
Regional Equity Explorer
7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings
Sensitivity Analysis
Key Assumptions 2017
FY Dec 2014A
2014A 2015A
2015A 2016A
2016A 2017F
2017F 2018F
2018F 2019F
2019F
GP margin +/- 1% Net Profit +/-
Net additions of stores 188 199 204 200 200 200 30%
Sales per store (RM,m) 1.08 1.03 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.03
Gross margin (%) 29 31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31
Dividend payout ratio 100 0.99 1.00 0.80 0.80 0.80
Net capex (RM m) 71.4 115 65.7 75.0 75.0 75.0
Page 109
Regional Equity Explorer
7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings
Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (139) (137) (138) (134) (151) (146) 480
0%
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 460
-4%
Associates & JV Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 440 -6%
3Q2014
4Q2014
1Q2015
2Q2015
3Q2015
4Q2015
1Q2016
2Q2016
3Q2016
4Q2016
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 1.24 1.06 0.59 (0.4) (0.3) (0.8)
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0.0 (1.8) (0.8) (1.4) (1.8) (1.8)
Pre-
Pre-tax Profit 22.6 19.8 22.3 21.0 15.5 12.0 Revenue Revenue Growth % (QoQ)
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 7.6 (3.8) 5.3 (3.9) 8.3 (4.4) Impacted by minimum wage
EBITDA Gth (%) 18.8 8.0 (1.5) 4.9 (13.8) (7.2)
Opg Profit Gth (%) 46.1 (3.8) 9.6 0.9 (22.6) (16.7)
Net Profit Gth (%) 56.4 (17.3) 14.6 (5.4) (22.7) (18.3)
Margins
Gross Margins (%) 30.8 31.6 30.4 31.0 30.9 30.7
Opg Profit Margins (%) 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.5 3.2 2.8
Net Profit Margins (%) 3.2 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.1 1.8
Page 110
Regional Equity Explorer
7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings
VALUATIONS
Fair valu
value
e at RM1.58
RM1.58.
58. 7-Eleven (M) is currently trading at an FY17 PE of 29x, which is in line with its regional peers. Although the group offers
one of the best exposures to a potential consumption recovery story with an aggressive new store expansion plan supporting topline growth,
we are concerned that high operating expenses arising from new store expansion could weigh on its earnings. Furthermore, a slow recovery in
consumer sentiments could cap its near term earnings growth. Our fair value for 7-Eleven (M) stands at RM1.58, based on 29x PE, which is in
line with its regional peers average PE. Although management has guided that dividend payout would be c.50%, we are assuming an 80%
dividend payout in view of (1) the group has been giving c.100% payout in the past 3 years, and (2) strong operating cash flows. This implies a
dividend yield of 3% for FY2017.
Page 111
SMC Research
The Business
Leading home grown retail convenience store player. Bison
Price Relative
RM Relative Index
Consolidated Bhd (Bison) is principally involved in the provision of press
2.5
208
and convenience retail products under its major trade name
2.4
2.3 188 myNEWS.com. As at December 2016, Bison had a total of 316 outlets
2.2 168 and currently has c.11% market share, second largest in Malaysia, but
2.1
this is significantly behind 7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings Bhd with >80%
148
2.0
128
1.9
1.8 108
market share.
1.7 88
Mar-17
Expanding to heavy footfall areas. Bison has a presence in most states
Bison Consolidated (LHS) Relative KLCI (RHS)
Forecasts and Valuation across Malaysia with 80% of its outlets in the Klang Valley. Most stores
FY Oct (RMm) 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F are located in high traffic areas such as shopping malls (31%),
Revenue 264 336 411 490 hypermarkets (16%), high street (15%), and transportation hubs (15%).
EBITDA 28.7 38.1 47.0 55.9 It plans to open 70 new stores per annum while maintaining the
Pre-tax Profit 23.6 32.6 39.7 47.0 geographical mix in order to optimise return per store.
Net Profit 18.1 25.0 30.5 36.1
Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 18.6 25.0 30.5 36.1 Successfully established a feasible business model. Bison posted an
EPS (sen) 5.85 8.06 9.83 11.6
impressive profit CAGR of 15.7% over FY13-FY16 despite the
EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 6.00 8.06 9.83 11.6
EPS Gth (%) 34 38 22 18 challenging retail environment. We believe that the group has
EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 38 34 22 18 successfully established a feasible business model in the domestic retail
Diluted EPS (sen) 5.85 8.06 9.83 11.6 space. With its upcoming new outlet openings and gradual recovery in
Net DPS (sen) 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
consumer sentiment, we are optimistic that the group will continue to
BV Per Share (sen) 49.2 55.7 64.0 74.2
PE (X) 36.3 26.3 21.6 18.2 record double digit earnings growth at CAGR of 24.7% over FY17-19.
PE Pre Ex. (X) 35.4 26.3 21.6 18.2
P/Cash Flow (X) 33.5 31.8 13.6 15.9 Fair value at RM2.02. We have derived a TP of RM2.02, pegging at 25x
EV/EBITDA (X) 22.6 17.3 13.5 11.1 FY17 PE, which is 20% discount to its regional peers average PE of 30x,
Net Div Yield (%) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
P/Book Value (X) 4.3 3.8 3.3 2.9 after taking into account of its smaller size relative to peers. We believe
Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH 0.0 CASH CASH that the stock is fairly valued at this juncture.
ROAE (%) 17.4 15.4 16.4 16.8
At A Glance
Consensus EPS (sen): 7.90 10.0 12.0 Issued Capital (m shrs) 310.1
Other Broker Recs: B: 4 S: 0 H: 1 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 595.3 / 134.4
Major Shareholders (%)
ICB Industry : Consumer Services D&D Consolidated Sdn Bhd 68.8
ICB Sector: General Retailers Free Float (%) 26.0
Principal Business: Bison are principally involved in the provisions of
3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 0.17
press and convenience retailing products under the main trade
name myNEWS.com. The group also operates under other trade
names such as Newsplus, WH Smith, MagBit, and The Front Page.
Source of all data on this page: Company, DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
*This Equity Explorer report represents a preliminary assessment of the subject company, and does not represent initiation into DBSVs coverage
universe. As such DBSV does not commit to regular updates on an ongoing basis. The rating system is distinct from stocks in our regular coverage
universe and is explained further on the back page of this report.
Page 112
Regional Equity Explorer
Bison Consolidated
REVENUE DRIVERS its centralised distribution centre (CDC). This is mainly to cater for on
the go food which currently contributes 9% to total revenue.
Leading home grown retail convenience store player. Bison is
principally involved in the provision of press and convenience retailing Chart 1: New store opened per year
products under its major trade name myNEWS.com. The group also No of Stores
operates under other trade names such as Newsplus, WH Smith, 350
299
350
300 300
MagBit, and The Front Page. The WH Smith outlets at airports 70
250 229 250
throughout Malaysia are the result of its 50:50 joint venture with UKs 196
200 41 200
165
WH Smith Plc. Bison is the largest home grown retail convenience store 37
150 16 150
operator in Malaysia and the second largest player overall, with an 229
100 196 100
estimated ~11% market share based on number of stores. 156 165
50 50
Nonetheless, we acknowledge that the gap between the Bison and 7-
0 0
Eleven Malaysia Holdings Bhd (7-Eleven) is significant with the latter FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Stores opened during the year Stores at beginning of the year
having >80% market share in the standalone convenience store Stores at end of the year
segment and operates >2,000 stores across all states in Malaysia as at
31 Dec 2016.
Chart 2: Revenue contribution for FY2016
Strengthening its foothold in Klang Valley region. As at December
2016, Bison had a total of 316 outlets (including nine WH Smith
outlets). The group opened 70 new outlets in FY 2016 (against 41 in
FY 2015), comprising 69 myNEWS.com outlets and one WH Smith
outlet. Bison has a presence in most states in Malaysia with 80% of its
outlets concentrated in Klang Valley and c.10% each in northern and
southern part of Peninsular Malaysia, coupled with three outlets in East
Malaysia. The group is planning to open about 70 new stores per
annum and intends to maintain its geographical mix of 80:20 (80% in
the Klang Valley and 20% in the rest of Malaysia).
Operating in high density areas. Bisons stores are mostly located in Chart 3: Gross profit contribution for FY2016
strategic areas that have heavy footfall such as shopping malls (31%),
hypermarkets (16%), high street (15%) and transportation hubs
(15%). We believe it is imperative for the group to maintain this
strategy while expanding its retail network to ensure strong traffic
volume to sustain earnings growth.
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Bison Consolidated
COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
The past few years have been challenging period for the retail sector, Figure 3: Fresh and stylish layout
which was adversely impacted by (1) GST implementation since April
2015, (2) slowing economic growth momentum, (3) concerns over job
prospects, (4) ringgit volatility, (5) high household debt, and (6) higher
cost of living contributed partly by the removal of subsidies by the
government.
Same Store Sales Growth Bison also ensures that the inventory level at each outlet remains at an
optimal level by monitoring it via auto ordering system - which will
Source: Company, DBS Bank trigger automatic orders once inventory falls below the required level.
Strategically located and stylishly designed. As mentioned above,
Bisons outlets are strategically located in heavy traffic areas such as Homegrown brand - no strings attached. Being a homegrown
shopping malls (31%), hypermarkets (16%), high street (15%), and convenience store operator provides Bison with full control over its
transportation hubs (15%). This helps to ensure strong footfall to its business, operational systems and retail management. This also gives
outlets even during the period where consumers have been tightening Bison the flexibility to respond to the ever-changing market demands
their belts. Besides that, its outlets are stylish and trendy, and this helps and consumer preferences in an efficient and timely manner.
to attract customers. Furthermore, the group does not need to pay royalty or licensing fees
for use of its brand name. In a trading business where profit margins
Figure 2: Store locations are relatively thin, a high licensing or royalty fees could have a
significant impact on the profitability of a convenience outlet operator.
This serves as one reason why Bison enjoys healthier operating margin
c.9% (vs c. 4% for 7-Elevens)
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Bison Consolidated
In fact, we have observed that customers who visit Bisons outlets have
a predetermined objective of products to purchase, and Bison becomes Figure 4: Bisons top management
their preferred convenience outlet due to (1) its open and easy
accessibility, (2) limited queuing time, (3) products are dynamically Name Profile
Dang Tai Luk He is the founder of Bison and has
displayed and easy to find, and, (4) rarely has out of stock issues.
Managing Director more than 20 years of experience in
retail business. Mr Dang Tai Luk
holds a Bachelor of Computer
KEY OPERATING ASSETS Science (Honours) and a Master of
Science in Computer Science from
Asset light model. The group does not own the physical properties of University of Manitoba, Canada. He
its outlets. The outlets located in shopping malls, hypermarkets, high started his career as a programmer
streets, office spaces, transportation hubs, resorts and medical centres in the banking industry prior to
setting up Bison stores in 1996. With
are all rented from third parties with most tenancy contracts having
his academic background and IT
duration of less than three years. knowledge, he developed computer
applications to assist and enhance
The major asset that the group owns is its CDC in Rawang. The Bison's business operations
majority of Bisons SKUs were distributed from its CDC, which has Dang Tai Wen Prior to joining Bison, he was a
122,601 square feet of storage capacity and is operating at c.70% Chief Operating Officer junior architect and holds a Bachelor
utilisation rate. of Environmental Design from the
University of Manitoba, Canada.
Currently, he is responsible in
creating the format of its outlets and
Bison's branding concept
MANAGEMENT & STRATEGY
Dang Tai Hock He has 24 years of experience in
Managed by founding members. Bisons leadership team comprises
Executive Director sales, including with his own
founding members from the Dang family, who are actively involved in company -Alphanical Press Sdn Bhd,
the business since the group was established in 1996. which is principally involved in
printing and stationeries. He joined
Bison in 2014, and leads the F&B
Its Managing Director, Mr Dang Tai Luk, has over 20 years of division, oversees the development
experience in the retail convenience business and through its private and expansion of F&B products or
vehicle - D&D Consolidated Sdn Bhd. The Dang family is a substantial SKUs for Bisons retail business
chain.
shareholder with an effective stake of 74% in Bison. Source: Company
Together with his siblings, Dang Tai Wen and Dang Tai Hock, and an
experienced management team, they have transformed Bison from
small retail shop to become the largest home grown retail convenience
store operator.
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Bison Consolidated
RISKS
Source: Company, DBS Bank
Inability to secure strategic locations. As a convenience store operator,
3-year revenue CAGR of 18.6% (FY13 16). Bison has registered one of the key success factors for Bison lies with its ability to secure
strong and consistent revenue growth over last 3 years, at CAGR of outlet locations with high foot traffic. Bison plans to open 70 new
18.6%. We forecast revenue to grow even faster this year, by 27% y- outlets per year as part of its expansion plan. With the new outlets
o-y and the strong 1Q17 performance has reaffirmed our stand. mainly in the Klang Valley region, it is crucial for Bison to secure prime
Growth in revenue will be mainly supported by the progressive locations especially in the shopping malls. However, in the event of
addition of new outlets and recovery in consumer sentiment. Bison failing to secure optimal retail locations for its new outlets, the
groups growth prospects could be adversely affected.
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Bison Consolidated
Net additions of stores 37.0 41.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 GP margin +/- 1% Net Profit +/-
Sales per store (RM,m) 0.93 0.95 0.88 0.91 0.94 0.96 11%
Gross margin (%) 33.1 34.2 35.8 36.4 36.8 36.9
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Bison Consolidated
4Q2014
1Q2015
2Q2015
3Q2015
4Q2015
1Q2016
2Q2016
3Q2016
4Q2016
1Q2017
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0.0 (1.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pre-tax Profit 7.58 5.23 5.02 5.79 8.05 Revenue Revenue Growth % (QoQ)
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Bison Consolidated
Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (0.3) (0.7) (1.1) (1.1) (1.1) (1.1) 15.0
Chg in Wkg.Cap. 0.32 (8.6) (56.6) (16.3) 10.1 (4.1)
10.0
Other Operating CF 20.6 (2.9) 49.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Operating CF 12.2 8.50 19.7 20.7 48.5 41.2 5.0
Capital Exp.(net) (9.0) (7.7) (23.6) (26.0) (21.2) (21.2) 0.0
Other Invts.(net) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F
Invts in Assoc. & JV 0.0 (0.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital Expenditure (-)
Div from Assoc & JV 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Investing CF 0.23 0.13 (61.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Investing CF (8.8) (8.1) (85.5) (26.0) (21.2) (21.2) Stores and CDC
Div Paid (10.9) (0.5) (4.7) (4.7) (4.7) (4.7) expansion
Chg in Gross Debt 1.31 (1.0) (1.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capital Issues 0.0 0.0 88.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Financing CF 5.32 (0.6) (7.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Financing CF (4.3) (2.1) 75.5 (4.7) (4.7) (4.7)
Currency Adjustments (0.3) (0.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chg in Cash (1.2) (2.0) 9.66 (10.0) 22.6 15.4
Opg CFPS (sen) 544 5.51 24.6 11.9 12.4 14.6
Free CFPS (sen) 147 0.26 (1.3) (1.7) 8.80 6.47
VALUATIONS
No formal dividend policy. Despite not having a formal dividend
Fair value at RM2.02. We pegged Bisons fair value at 25x FY17F PE,
policy, Bison had declared 1.5sen DPS (26% payout) to shareholders
a 20% discount to the industry average given its smaller size.
in FY2016. We assume that the group will maintain 1.5 sen/share
Although we are positive on the groups growth prospects, we
DPS going forward, on the back of strong cashflows, strong balance
believe that the stock is fairly priced at this juncture.
sheet and bright growth prospects. This translates to 0.7% dividend
yield for FY17.
Risk Assessment: Moderate
Category Risk Rating Wgt Wgtd Score
1 (Low) - 3 (High) Low free float, key stakeholders control two-thirds of the company.
Earnings 2 40% 0.8 Shares in Bison remain tightly held, with a free float of 26%. The
Financials 1 20% 0.2 Dang family effectively owns 74% - mostly through its family
Shareholdings 1 40% 0.4
private vehicle, D&D Consolidated Sdn Bhd.
Overall 1.4
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Sources for all charts and tables are DBS Bank unless otherwise specified.
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