Fuzzy logic via

Computing With Words:

Case Studies

Ashok Deshpande Ph.D.

Chair: Berkeley Initiative in Soft Computing ( BISC)-
Special Interest Group (SIG)- Environment Management
Systems (EMS) UC Berkeley CA.
Guest Faculty: University of California Berkeley CA
Adjunct Professor in Instrumentation and Control: College of
Engineering Pune (COEP)
Former Deputy Director: National Environmental Engineering
Research Institute (NEERI)
 Motivation

Markov Modeling
Pumping units in Two states!
 Stochastic Modeling

P0(t) P1(t)

State Space Relationship

0- Operating State, and 1 Failed State

- failure rate, and - repair rate

P0(t) = Probability of a unit is in an operating

state at time t
P1(t) = Probability of a unit is in a failed state
at time t
 Sensitivity Analysis

z P0(t)= { / ( + )} + { /( + )} e -( + ) t }

z P1(t) = { / ( + )} - { /( + )} e -( + ) t}}

z Case 1 Po *(t) : ( + )
Using approximate series and solving:
Po*(t) ={ /( + )}+{ /( + )} e -( + ) t }
Where: = 1-{/( + ) },
= 1+ {/( + ) } [ - ( + ) t]
 What Was the Outcome?
z Good Outcome: Awarded PhD degree in Engineering.
z Not so Good Outcome: The work has very little practical
relevance.
z Are there any simpler techniques in decision research
which could model aleotarial uncertainty (due to
randomness in parametric data) and epistemic
uncertainty (due to perceptions that are invariably
vague, and ambiguity)?
z Yes. What is needed is Human Level Machine
Intelligence (HLMI). Fuzzy logic via CW could be one
such method of uncertainty analysis.
 Broad Issues for Discussion

z Broad Road Map of Computational Mechanics and Soft

computing
z Fuzzy logic application areas
z Computing With Words (CW): Precisiation, Linguistic
variable, NL Computation, Fuzzy set, Levels of
Complexity : 0, 1, and 2
z Case Study 1:
Computing With Words for Energy Options?-Decision
Making under Risk and Uncertainty
[CW Level 1 Complexity CW Level 2 Complexity]
z Case Study 2:
Fuzzy logic based Environmental Friendly and Energy
Efficient Air Conditioner [CW Level 1 Complexity ]
 A Broad Road Map of
Computational Mechanics
Probability Theory & Statistical
Newtonian mechanics/ mechanics via -field of Borel/
Computational
Organsied Dis- organised Complexity Methods
Simplicity 1 Calculus
Replaced by Probability
2 Theory
Optimization
3 Optimization of
Soft [A+B] NLS-Not possible What Next ?
Computing: 4 Data Driven Methods [B]
Perception Based Methods:
Organised Computing With Words (CW) -ANN,GA, and
alike CW 1:based Fuzzy logic and Fuzzy
Complexity Linguistic Variable, 5
[A] Probability/ Possibility Theory
(CW) Fuzzy set & Granulation
CW 2 under development at BISC.
CW-0 CW- 1 Fuzzy logic( Type 1+FLS/Type 2)
Composition rule of inference
CW-1 CW-2 ?
CW-2 unexplored domain;
Z mouse/imprecise probability
So far as the laws of
mathematics refer to reality
they are not certain. And so far
as they are certain, they do not
refer to reality.
Albert Einstein
Theoretical Physicist and Nobel Laureate,
Geometrie und Erfahrung, Lecture at Prussian Academy,1921
Professor Lotfi Zadeh

Who had courage and the gift

To begin the grand paradigm shift,
And to many others,
Whose hard work and healthy thinking
Have contributed to this shifting.

Professor George Klir and Bo Yuan

Book: Fuzzy sets and Fuzzy logic
Theory and Applications
 Professor Lotfi A. Zadeh
Father of Fuzzy logic and my I intellectual
Father
Science deals not with reality but with
models of reality.

Professor Lotfi Zadeh

 What is A Statistical
Define
Model?*
Problem

Hypothesis
Nature (Truth)

Design
Experiment Window

Redesign Hypothesis Collect

More Data . Data Analysis
Redesign Experiment

Deduction

Problem Not Solved Problem Solved

*Discussion with Professor George Box

 Fuzzy Contribution
( Some of the Papers)

Application Areas
z Medical Informatics
z Safety and Reliability Engineering
z Environmental Engineering
z Nuclear Management
z Bioinformatics
z Law ( Environmental , Land record, Constitution, and
Nuclear)-Ongoing
 List of Selected Papers
1. Medical Informatics

Wagholikar, K. and Deshpande A. :Fuzzy Relation based

Modeling for Medical Diagnostic Decision Support: Case
Studies. Knowledge-Based Intelligent Information and
Engineering Systems.

A.W. Deshpande, U.A. Deshpande and P. Khanna- Fuzzy

Fault Tree Analysis: A Case Study Paper presented at the
2nd International Conference on Fuzzy logic and Neural
Network (IIZUKA92) July 17-22J Japan
 List of Selected Papers

2. Safety and Reliability Engineering

D.V.Raje, R.S.Olaniya, P.D. Wakhre, and A. W.

Deshpande, Availability assessment of a two unit
standby pumping system; Journal of Reliability
Engineering and System Safety (2000)
Edwin Vijay Kumar, S.K. Chaturvedi and A.W.
Deshpande RCM with Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) in
Process Plants: Int. J Performability Engineering, July
2008.
 List of Selected Papers

Safety and Reliability Engineering

Edwin Vijay Kumar, S.K. Chaturvedi and A.W.

Deshpande, Large Electric Motor Maintenance using
Fuzzy Stat Modelling A tool for Decision making by
an Industrial Maintenance Manager: Int. J Quality ,
Reliability and Maintenance 2008
Edwin Vijaykumar, S.K. Chaturvedi and A.W. Deshpande
Failure Probability Estimation using Fuzzy Fault Tree
Analysis (FFTA) with PDM Data in Process Plants, IJPE
2008.
 List of Selected Papers

3. Environmental Engineering

Thomas E. McCone and Ashok W. Deshpande, Can Fuzzy

logic focus Complex Environmental Problems?
International Journal of Science and Technology
(Invited paper) Jan 15, 2005
R.K. Lad, R. A. Christian & A. W. Deshpande, Fuzzy
Modeling for Environmental Pollution Potential Ranking
of Industries, International Journal for Environmental
Progress, AIChE.
 List of Selected Papers

4. Nuclear Management
Ashok Deshpande and Vidyottama Jain Computing With
Words on Energy Options? Towards Decision Making
under Risk, International Journal of Nuclear
Management Dec 2010
Vidyottama Jain and Ashok Deshpande, Prospect Theory
on Energy Options?-Towards Decision Under Risk
ICRESH Dec 2010
Vidyottama Jain and Ashok Deshpande, Decision Making
undr Risk and Uncertainty CSI Communications
5. Bioinformatics
Efficacy of Fuzzy Polynucleoide Space in Phylogenetic
Tree Reconstruction
Cab Driver ProblemThe Point of Departure

I hire a cab and ask the driver to take me to address A.

Then I add: (a) the shortest way; and (b) the fastest
way. Based on his/her experience, the driver chooses
route (a) to solve Problem (a); and route (b) to solve
Problem (b).

shortest route (a)

A

fastest route (b)

 Continued

z Routes (a) and (b) will be referred to f-valid (fuzzily

valid) solutions. Generally, f-valid solutions are based on
experience and perception-based information.

z Are there p-valid (provably valid) solutions?

z Problem (a) has a p-valid solution. A GPS system can

come up with this solution. Thus, in addition to the
drivers f-valid solution, there is a p-valid solution.

z Problem (b) does not have a p-valid solution.

 Summary

z In the case of Problem (a), a good precise model can be

constructed and a provable valid (p-valid) solution can
be constructed. Thus, in addition to the drivers f-valid
solution, there is a p-valid solution.

z In Problem (b), a good precise model cannot be

constructed. Consequently, there is no p-valid solution to
the problem.
 Impossibility Principle

z As the complexity of a problem increases, a point is

reached at which a choice must be made between a p-
valid solution based on an unrealistic model and an f-
valid solution based on a realistic model. At that point, it
is impossible to construct a p-valid solution which is
based on a realistic model.

z The impossibility principle raises unsettling questions

regarding the validity of theorems in fields such as
economicsfields in which human perceptions and
emotions play an important role.
Complexity
of Systems Hybrid Modeling

z For systems with little complexity, hence little

uncertainty closed form solution ..
z For systems little more complex but for which
significant data exists, model free methods ANN:
provides a powerful and robust means to reduce some
uncertainty through learning based on patterns in the
available data.
Computing with Words
-Why and How?
Computing With Words
(CW or CWW)?

Preview
Why?
 Computing With Words

z Computing with Words (CW or CWW) is a system of

computation which offers an important capabilitya
capability that traditional systems of computation do not
havethe capability to compute with information
described in natural language.
z The coming decade will be a decade of automation of
everyday reasoning and decision-making. In the world of
automated reasoning and decision-making, Computing
with Words is certain to play a prominent role.
z The capability to compute with information described in
natural language opens the door to a wide-ranging
enlargement of the role of natural languages in scientific
theories and engineering systems.
 CW: Four Rational
Computing with words fuzzy deals with the following
four rational:

1. Dont need rational: Crawling of a child

2. Dont know rational: Driving in a busy traffic

3. Cant define rational: Risk, Intelligence, WQ/AQ

4. Cant solve rational: Complex formulation

 Key Points
z CW is closely related to computation with natural
language.
z CW is related to granular computing, Gr C.
z CW is unrelated to natural language processing.
z FL needs CW but CW does not need FL.
z CW is not Type 2 FIS. Type-2 FIS is the part of FL or
may be extended FL.
 Computing with Words (CW)

CW = computation with information described

in natural language

CW = NL-computation

Important Note:
Fuzzy logic is based on Computing With Words (CWW) but
Computing With Words may not necessary need Fuzzy logic
formulation. CW methodology can be developed using fuzzy
set operations and the decision maker can still arrive at
useful conclusion.
 Levels of Complexity in CW
z Principal levels of complexity in CW: Level 1 CW and
Level 2 CW. Historically, Level 2 CW may be viewed as a
sequel to and a generalization of Level 1 CW.
z Today, it is Level 1 CW that is in preponderant use and a
center of research activity. In coming years, the intrinsic
importance of Level 2 CW is likely to gain recognition,
leading to a wide variety of applications.
z The concepts of a linguistic variable and fuzzy if-then
rule (Zadeh 1973) may be called the language, LNL, of
linguistic variables and fuzzy if-then rules. LNL is a
sublanguage of natural language, NL.
z In Level 1 CW and Level 2 CW, the universes of
discourse are LNL and NL, respectively.
 Evolution of CW

CW

Level 1 Level 2
Evolution

universe of universe of
discourse discourse
LNL NL

explicit implicit
constraints constraints
Level 2 CW: Natural Language (NL)
Most Africans are tall
Most tall Africans are black
______________________________
Most2 Africans
are black

NL Level 2 CW

Linguistic Natural
Language (LNL) (LNL NL) is
Fuzzy Relation
Pressure is
High
LNL
If pressure is Level 1 CW
High then
volume is Low
 Levels of Complexity in CW

z Both conceptually and computationally, Level 1 CW is

much simpler than Level 2 CW. Level 1 CW is associated
with an extensive literature and a wide range of
applications. Level 2 CW is not, at least at this stage of
its development.
z For this reason, exposition of CW in this presentation is
focused on Level 2 CW. More specifically, what will not
be discussed is the machinery of linguistic variables and
fuzzy if-then rules; but only application of Level 1 and
Level 1 Level 2.
 Levels of Complexity

Simple Examples
z Level 0 CW: Computing with Numbers
z Kalyani is 24
z Aashutosh is 2 years younger than Kalyani
________________________________________
z Aashutosh is (24 -2) years old

z Level 1 CW:
z Kalyani is young
z Aashutosh is a few years younger than Kalyani
______________________________________
z Aashutosh is (young-few) years young
 Levels of Complexity:
Simple Examples

z IF invited for talk and arrange for slide projection THEN I

will present my fuzzy lecture in ISI Workshop.
z Level 2 CW:

z Most Africans are tall

z Most tall Africans are black

______________________________
z Most2 Africans are black

Note: Both conceptually and computationally, Level 1

CW is much simpler than Level 2 CW. Level 2 CW is
under development. We, at BISC-UCB, are on the job!
Note: The word Precisiation is coined by Professor Lotfi Zadeh
 Key Points

z Understanding of meaning is a prerequisite to

precisiation of meaning.
z Precisiation of meaning is a prerequisite to computation.
z Precisiation of meaning has a position of centrality in
CW.
z It is of interest to note that the concept of precisiation,
in the sense in which it is used in CW, does not exist
within linguistics or computational linguistics.
 Digression: Distinction Between
Understanding, Representation and
Precisiation of Meaning

meaning

understanding representation precisiation

understanding of meaning is a prerequisite to representation of

meaning
representation of meaning is a prerequisite to precisiation of
meaning
precisiation of meaning is a prerequisite to mechanization of
understanding of meaning
 Precisiation and Imprecision

v-imprecisiation
1 1

0 v-precisiation 0
a x a x
M (meaning)-precise m-precise
V (value)-precise v-imprecise

1 If X is small then Y is small

v-imprecisiation If X is medium then Y is medium
If X is large then Y is small
0
x
v-precise v-imprecise

m-precise m-precise
 V-Precisiation

X: variable A
g-precisiation
X

a
s-precisiation

s-precisiation
400% (a)
Price of Onion in
Very Very High
Indian market (x) g-precisiation
s-precisiation is used routinely in scientific theories and
especially in probability theory
Defuzzification may be viewed as an instance of s-
precisiation
Professor Ashok Deshpandes Pravachan at ISI Bhubaneshwar
Workshop on Jan 15,2011- say around 11:45 hours
0 xa
(x-a) /(b-a) axb
= (c- x)/ (c- b) b x c
0 x c
1.0
f (x) = 0/11:00 + 0.2/11:15+ 1/11:45 +
0.7/12:00 + 0.45/12:15 +0/12:30

-kevel cut A principal objective of
0.20 human level
intelligence is
mechanization of these
0 remarkable human
capabilities.
11:00 11:15 11:45 12:00 12:15 12:30
Mechanization of these
capabilities is beyond
0 a b c the reach of methods
x based on classical,
l Support of a fuzzy set l Aristotelian, bivalent
logic and bivalent-logic-
Or mh precisiation based probability
theory.
Or co intensive definition
Two remarkable human capabilities: First, the capability to perform a wide variety
of physical and mental tasks, And second, the capability to reason, converse and make
rational decisions in an environment of imprecision, uncertainty, incompleteness of
information, partiality of truth and partiality of possibility.
 Principal Rationals for CW
z Basic premises:
z Words are less precise than numbers

z Precision carries a cost

z Numbers are respected, words are not

z Rationale A.

z Use words when true numbers are not known. Use of

words is a necessity.
z Rationale B.
z Words are good enough.
 Principal Rationals for CW

z True numbers are known but there is a tolerance for

imprecision which can be exploited by employing words
in place of numbers, aiming at a reduction in cost and
achieving simplicity. Use of words is advantageous.
z Rationale C.
z Linguistic summarization.
z Words are used to summarize numerical information.
z Today, most of the applications of CW, especially in the
realm of consumer products, are based on Rationales B
and C. A key role is played by linguistic summarization.
 Rationales for The Use of Words

Use of Words

A B C

Necessary Advantageous Useful

True Numbers
are known.
There is a
True Numbers tolerance for
Linguistic
not known Precision.
Summarization
Words are
good enough
1.0 Crisp or Classical Set

A Child is Born

Life
Is this OK?- NO
0 No Life
0 9
Fuzzy Set
Age in Months 1.0
This is
OK

Which set could
be a real
representation?
0

0 4 9
Age in months
 Why Fuzzy Sets are Different
from Crisp Sets ?

z Two special properties of Fuzzy set operations

are:
(Excluded Middle Laws) A A X

z De Morgans Laws A A
(Laws of contradiction)

1
1
A
A

0 0
x x
[a] [b]

0
x
[C]

Excluded Middle Laws for Crisp Sets [a] Crisp Sea

and its compliment; [b] Crisp A A = X ( law of
excluded middle); [C] A A = Null Set ( law of
contradiction)


Fuzzy A 1
1

FuzzyA

0 0
x [b] x
[a]

0 x
[c]
Excluded Middle Laws for Fuzzy Sets [a] Fuzzy Set A
and its compliment; [b] Fuzzy A A X ( law of
excluded middle); [C] Fuzzy A A Null set ( law of
contradiction)
 Linguistic Summarization Via
Granulation of A Function
Y f granule
L

M
S
0
0

Y S M L
medium medium
*f (fuzzy graph) perception
fsummarization*f :
If X is small Then Y is small
If X is medium Then Y is medium
X If X is large Then Y is small
0
49 /88
 Fuzzy Logic Gambit
z Fuzzy Logic Gambit = deliberate imprecisiation through
granulation, followed by graduation

Granulation if X is small then Y is small

if X is medium then Y is large
Summarisation if X is large then Y is small

z The Fuzzy Logic Gambit is employed in most of the

applications of fuzzy logic in the realm of consumer
products
In Summary, What Does CW Have
To Offer?
z When true numbers are not known, CW makes it
possible to compute and reason with words.
z When there is a tolerance for imprecision, CW makes it
possible to reduce cost and achieve simplicity through
the use of words in place of numbers.
z When it is necessary or desirable to summarize
numerical information using words.
z When precisiation of meaning serves a useful purpose.
Examples: Legal reasoning, wording of contracts and
specifications, definition of concepts, human-machine
communication, etc. CW offers an effective precisiation
procedure.
Computing With
Words-

How?
 Point of Departure
z The point of departure in CW is a question, q, of the
form: What is the value of a variable, X. Associated with
q is a question-relevant information set, I, expressed as
X is i, meaning that an answer to q, Ans(q/I), is to be
deduced (computed) from I.
z Typically, I consists of a collection of propositions, pi,
I=1, , n, are expressed in a natural language. I is said
to be linguistic if it contains propositions which are
drawn from a natural language.
z The pi are carriers of information about X.
z In general, some of the pi may be drawn from external
sources of information, typically from world knowledge,
+pi. Computation of Answer (q/I) is described in part by
an aggregation function, f.
 Basic Structure of CW

NL q

CW
P
I Engine Ans q/I
P+

NL
NL
 ExampleDurgas Age
z Question, q: What is age?
z Information set, I:
z p1: Durga has a son in mid-twenties.
z p2: Durga has a daughter in mid-thirties. Raw
z +p3(world knowledge): Usually mothers Information
age at birth of child is between Unprecisiated
approximately 20, *20, and
approximately 40, *40.
 ExampleDurgas Age

z First step, partially precisiated information set, I*:

z p1*: Age (Son) is *25
z p2*: Age (Daughter) is *35
z +p3*: Age (Mother. at. birth) is usually [*20,*40]
z Aggregation function: Age (Durga) is:
(*25+usually[*20,*40] (fussion)
(*35+usually[*20,*40]
 Key PointRepresentation of
Fuzzy Degrees

Degree

Perception of Degree
(Fuzzy)

Z mouse Word Membership Function

 Computing With Numbers
Traditional
Traditional World of world of
Worldofof
world World of World of
quantification
CN scientific
perceptions measurements theories
scientific scientific
progress progress

NL CW

natural
precisiation computation
language

description
FL
fuzzy logic
Paradigm Shift
 CWW on Indias Energy
Options?-
Towards Decision Making
under Risk and Uncertainty

From Equation Based To

Perception Based modeling-A
Grand Paradigm Shift
 Indias Energy Options
z Nature's real estate: water, minerals, oil & gas, and coal
z In spite of the efforts initiated by many countries,
including India, in the development of non-conventional
energy resources,
z The gap between supply and demand of energy for the
peaceful purpose may not be be bridged in the near
future.
z It is true that major decisions such as selecting energy
options for the country are made without advance
knowledge of their consequences.
 Economic Theory
z Expected utility theory, prospect theory are some of the
economic theories used in decision making under risk
and uncertainty.

z We believe that the decision of selecting energy options

could also be approached with less computational bother
as is intended in prospect theory. Computing With Words
proposed by Professor Lotfi Zadeh, the father of fuzzy
logic could be a useful armamentarium in this quest.
z First, a commentary on economic theories:
 Expected Utility Theory
Daniel Bernoulli's observed that people's utility from
wealth, is not linearly related to wealth but rather
increases at a decreasing rate - the famous concept of
diminishing marginal utility. He asserted that a person's
valuation of an option is not by their objective values but
rather by their utility or moral values. This gives rise to a
utility function, which is concave over states of wealth.
i =1
EU = u(x
n
i ) pi

Where u (xi) represents the utility of obtaining outcome

xi.
Figure 1 portrays progressive development in the area of
decision making under risk and uncertainty
Progressive
development in the
area of decision
making under risk and
uncertainty.
 Prospect Theory
z Professor (s) Tversky and Kahneman have
demonstrated, in numerous highly controlled
experiments, that most people systematically violate all
of the basic axioms of expected utility.
z In response to their findings, they proposed a theory of
choice, based on psychophysical model, which accurately
describes how people go about making their decisions!
z The Original Prospect Theory (OPT), suggested by
Kahneman and Tversky in 1979, is based on non-linear
transformation of outcome and probabilities, which allow
describing psychological aspects of decision-making.
 Prospect Theory

z The OPT developed for simple prospects with monetary

outcomes and stated probabilities has three major
characteristics: OPT predicts that people go through two
distinct stages while taking decisions.
z In the first phase, decision makers are predicted to edit
a complicated decision into a simpler prospect, usually
specified in terms of gains or losses.
z In the second phase, the decision makers evaluate each
of the edited prospects available to them and choose the
prospect of highest value between the edited prospects.
 Prospect Theory

This evaluation is expressed in terms of two scales w

and v. The first scale w associates with each probability
p a decision weight w (p) which shows the impact of p
on the over all value of the prospect. The second scale,
v, assigns to each outcome a number v (x) that gives
the subjective value of that outcome x. Therefore, the
evaluation function for a prospect (xi, pi) is given by

V(xi , pi ) = v(xi ) w( pi )
Where pi is perceived probability of outcome xi w (pi )
is the probability weighting function and v (xi) is value
function.
 Prospect Theory

value function v as a function of gains and losses

The value function v (xi) has the following properties

based on the above mentioned three properties of OPT
and it is depicted in Fig. :
1.It is defined on deviations from a reference point.
2. It is concave for gains and convex for losses.
3. It is steeper for losses than for gains.
 Prospect Theory

Following Tversky and Kahneman, the value function can

be parameterized as a power function
x , x 0
v( x) =
(x) , x < 0

Where, measure the curvature of the value function

for gains and losses, respectively, and is the coefficient
of loss aversion. This value function for gains and losses
is increasingly concave and convex respectively for,
<1. The weighting function, defined by Tversky and
Kahneman [10], is an inverse-S-shaped weighting
function. It is concave near 0 and convex near 1
 Prospect Theory

The weighting function, defined by Tversky and

Kahneman is an inverse-S-shaped weighting function. It
is concave near 0 and convex near 1

p
w( p ) =

p + (1 p )

It assumes that the relation between w and p is linear

in a log-odds metric. Here measures the elevation of
the weighting function and measures its degree of
curvature. We will leave the discussion her though We
have used PT for the evaluation of energy options.
 Conventional Energy
Options for India
Till Year 2030
Decision Research

Computing With Words

{Complexity Level 1 Complexity Level 2
OR FR}

CCW-2

FL
CW-1
 Energy Options for India in 2030
with Gain and Risk Scenario
z Projected total energy needs in the year 2030 is
1,000,000 MW.

z Assume 70% power generation using non-conventional

energy resources. Therefore, the balance energy needs
of 300,00 MW will have to be met from the conventional
energy resource.

z India has already installed power plants of around

160,000 MW. Thus the additional electrical energy
requirements in 2030 will be approximately 140,000 MW
(y) , using conventional energy resouces.
 Energy Options for India in 2030 with Gain and Risk Scenario

z Scenario 1:
Expected Power generation (gain) through hydro
energy is medium (as the water resources are
diminishing due to environmental degradation) on the
basis of water availability. The probability of its failure
i.e. risk due to accident (man made/ natural disaster)
is also assumed to be medium by the domain expert
group.
z Scenario 2
Computed energy generation (gain) using coal and
oil/& gas termed as thermal power is very low. Also
its risk of failure is very low.
 Energy Options for India in 2030 with Gain and Risk Scenario

z Scenario 3

Power generation (gain) through nuclear option is

very high. Some how, nuclear power plants have
been over criticized because of one single unfortunate
accident at Chernobyl plant. Keeping in view the pubic
sentiments alone, risk of its failure is assumed as very
high.
A Word of caution: It is hoped that concerned
organizations will take cognizance of diligently carried
out environment impact assessment studies, and the
public debate about the feasibility these plant
locations.
 Typical Mathematical Functions

z Nuclear energy option

In case of the nuclear option, consider high energy
gain and high risk, defined by the user as follows

z Consider a fuzzy set (near optimum-gain) with

x1=90,000 MWe and x2=100,000 MWe, and a set
(expected-loss) with z1=10,000 MWe and z2=11,000
MWe, based on users input.
 Typical Fuzzy set A
For Gains in Nuclear option ( MW)
Typical Mathematical
Functions (Nuclear)
1.0

A(x)

0
x

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 [ x (MW) x1000]

a b
Support/ mh Precisiation h precisiation

0
A(x ) = (x-a)/ (b-a )
0 x 100,00
100,000 x 110,000
0 0 x 10000
1 x 11,000
A(x ) = (x-a)/ (b-a ) 100,000 x 110,000
Note: m stands from machine and h for human.
1 x 110000

0 0 x 110,000
The mathematical B(y )= ( x-a)/ (b-a ) 110,000 x 160,000
functions of membership 1 x 160,000
{A (x), B (y) and C (z)}
0 0 x 1000
functions for gains, total
= (x-a)/ (b-a ) 1000 x 14,000
energy requirement, and C(z ) 1 14,000
losses (expressed as
energy equivalent) are as
follows: X=gains, y=Requirement, z=Losses

What Next?-----
Max-Min Composition

Physical Analogy
 Max-Min Composition

There is an interesting physical analogy for the max-min

composition operator. The system shown in the figures
comprising several chain links placed together in a
parallel fashion.
In the system, each chain link comprises of elements. If
we were to take one of the chain link out of the system,
place it in a tensile test machine, and exert a large
tensile force on the chain, we would find that the chain
link would break at its weakest element. Hence , the
strength of one chain link is equal to the strength of its
weakest element. Minimum strength ( )of all the
elements in the chain governs the strength of the overall
chain link.
 Chain Link 1 The weakest element of chain link 1
Tensile Force

Link 2
Tensile Force

Link 3

.8 .3 .4 .4 .5 .5 .6 .7 .8 .8 .1 .8 .5 .5 .5 .4 .7 .8 .9 .8 .9

Each element of a link differs in strength

The chain link would break at its weakest

element.
 Max-Min Composition

T= Ro S
where : R is a crisp relation on the Cartesian space X Y
and S is a crisp relation on the Cartesian Y Z space,
and T is a fuzzy relation on the X Z space.

T ( x, z)= (R ( x, y) S ( y, z))
yY
Where T is the characteristic function of T in the
interval [0,1]. This function measures the strength of
the relation, i. e., a value of 1means full relation and 0
no relation. is minimum and, is a maximum value.
Fuzzy Relations
 Fuzzy max-min Composition

R is a fuzzy relation on Cartesian space X x Y , S is a

fuzzy relation on Y x Z, and T is a fuzzy relation on X x
Z; then the max- min composition is defined in the set
theoretic notation and membership function-theoretic
notation in the following manner:

Fuzzy T= Fuzzy R o Fuzzy S

T (x, z) = { R (x, y) S (y, z) }

yY
 Fuzzy max-product Composition

Fuzzy max-product composition is defined in

terms of the membership function theoretic
notation as:

T (x, z) = { R (x, y) S (y, z) }

yY
It is important to note that neither crisp nor fuzzy
composition have converse in general; that is,
Fuzzy R o Fuzzy S Fuzzy S o Fuzzy R
Example: X= {x1, x2}, Y = y1, y2 }, and Z={z1, z2, z3};
Consider the following fuzzy relation
y1 y2 z1 z2 z3
R= x1 0.7 0.5 and S = y1 0.9 0.6 0.2
x2 0.8 0.4 y2 0.1 0.7 0.5
R S(x1z1)=max {min(0.7,0.9), min(0.5,0.1)} =0.7
R S(x1z2)=max {min(0.7,0.6),min(0.5,0.7)} =0.6
R S(x1z3)=max {min(0.7,0.2),min (0.5,0.5)} =0.5
R S(x2z1)=max {min(0.8, 0.9),min(0.4, 0.1)} =0.8
R S(x2z2)=max {min (0.8,0.6 ),min (0.4.0.7)} =0.6
R S(x2z3)=max {min(0.8, 0.2 ), min (0.4,0.5 )} =0.4
 Max- min composition (example contd..)
z1 z2 z3
X1 0.7 0.6 0.5
X2 0.8 0.6 0.4
T( x, z)= { R (x, y) s (y, z)}
y Y
T (x2, z2) =max {(0.8, 0.6) (0.4, 0.5)}=0.48
Max-product composition
z1 z2 z3
x1 0.63 0.42 0.25
T= x2 0.73 0.48 0.20
 Fuzzy relations: Mathematical Functions (Nuclear)

The fuzzy Cartesian product will be:

y1 y2 z1 z2
x1 0.6 0.8 y1 0.6 0.6
R =
N
S =
N
z ~ x2 0.6 0.8 ~ y2 0.69 0.77

Fuzzy max-min composition between

and results into the following fuzzy
relation matrix as
z1 z2
x1 0.69 0.77
N
=
0.77
T
~ x 2 0.69
 Fuzzy relational Mathematical Functions

z Hydro energy option

The decision maker defines medium energy gain and
medium risk as X (50,000, 60,000) MW and Z (9,000,
8,000) MW.
z Thermal energy option
z Very low energy gain and very low risk are defined by
the decision maker: X (13,000, 18,000) MW and Z
(1,500, 2200) MW.
Following similar computational procedure presented in
nuclear option, the final matrix after using the
compositional rule of inference or max- min composition
works out to be:
 Fuzzy relations: Mathematical Functions

z Hydro energy option Thermal energy option

z1 z2 z1 z2

x1 0.4 0.4 x1 0.03 0.03

= T =
Th

x2 0.08 0.08
Hy

x 2 0.5 0.5
T
~ ~

After defuzzifying all the fuzzy relational matrices ,and

by considering =0.08, we have the following
outcome:
Why Nuclear Option is Selected for
Indias Energy Needs till 2030?
z Ratio of loss and gain

z 2200
= = 0 . 122
For thermal:
2

x 2 18000
z1 z z z
For hydro: = 0.16, 1 = 0.133, 2 = 0.18, 2 = 0.15
x1 x2 x1 x2

For Nuclear: z1 z z z
= 0.11, 1 = 0.1, 2 = 0.122, 2 = 0.11
x1 x2 x1 x2

Conclusion
Ration of Loss /gain is minimum in case of Nuclear
energy option. This is the reason for deciding
Nuclear Energy as the viable option or prospect.
Philosophy of Fuzzy Logic
NOT-A A And NOT-A A

Fuzzy Apple
A Non Traditional View
of Fuzzy Logic
 Four Corner Stones of Fuzzy logic

graduation granulation

FUZZY LOGIC
precisiation
generalized
constraint

One of the most important features of fuzzy logic is its

high power of precisiation. (co intensive mh-
precisiation).
 What is Fuzzy logic?

One of the ways of defining fuzzy logic :

Reasoning with fuzzy sets and with approximate

reasoning due to shallow knowledge.
Knowledge Based Systems
 What is Knowledge?
z Knowledge could be understood for social regulation
purposes as explicit and tacit. Explicit knowledge relates
to the community culture indicating how things work in
the community based on social policies and procedures.
Tacit knowledge is ethics and norms of the community.

z The former could be codified, stored and transferable in

order to support decision making, while the latter being
based on personal knowledge, experience and
judgments is difficult to codify and store. However, since
the tacit knowledge is expressed mainly through
linguistic information, it can be stored and, therefore,
support the knowledge management in social regulation
through the application of fuzzy or neuro-fuzzy systems.
 Fuzzy logic Based
Environmental Friendly and
Energy Efficient Air
Conditioner
Implementation
 Air Conditioner: Some Limitations
z Some of the limitations of conventional control strategies
(such as PID, feedback Control) include:
1. Wastage of Energy due to variation in load changes
and external disturbances; PID control used in HVAC
system is stochastic, time-variant and non-linear. Thus
using PID control it is difficult to achieve online
adjustment .
2. Accumulation of CO2 inside closed room.
Needs some other implementable approach .
Why not try Fuzzy logic based formalism?
 Fuzzy Inference System
Building Blocks
z Fuzzifier
z Rule base
z Inference engine
z Defuzzifier

Rule base

Defuzzifier
Fuzzifier

(knowledge base)

output
input

Inference engine
Feedback Control System for Air Conditioner
 Fuzzy logic Controller :Basis

z Theorems

1. FAT
Fuzzy Approximation Theorem has raised the
machine IQ of camcorders and car transmissions
and helicopter stabilizers and so on..

2. FAM
Fuzzy Associative Memory theorem deals with
firing of fuzzy rules
 The FAT ideal has a simple geometry and
cover a curve with patches as shown below

Could we dare to write a mathematical equation for

such a geometry. Even if it is done could we solve the
expression so as to get exact output( result) ?
The answer is :NO
 Fuzzy Air Conditioner
Fuzzy sets for Temperature
(Based on Expert Knowledge base)
.
Fuzzy sets for Motor Speed
 Five Fuzzy Rules

Rule 1 : If the temperature is cold, the motor speed stops

Rule 2 : If the temperature is cool, the motor speed
slows.
Rule 3 : If the temperature is just right, the motor
speed is medium
Rule 4 : If the temperature is warm, the motor speed is
fast
Rule 5 : If the temperature is hot, the motor speed
blasts
 Fuzzy Systems

z Thats where fuzzy systems break with old science. The

technical term for it is model-free estimation or
approximation.

z You do it every time you back up your car or catch a fast

ball or look at a TV image and see something in your
brain.
 Fuzzy Associative Memory

In fuzzy system - which rule fires or activates

at which time?

- They all fire all at a time.

- They fire in parallel.
- And all rules fire to some degree.
- Most fire to zero degree.
- They fire partially.
- Parallel and partially.
- Thats how associative memory works.
- The result is a fuzzy weighted average.
All The Patchs
 Fuzzy Value as Output!
z You cant handover a fuzzy set to a motor!
z You have to tell the motor a speed. You have to give it
a number. A triangle is not a number. But it has an
average number. Since the MEDIUM triangle is
symmetric it averages just the center of the base of the
triangle, the motor speed 50. This average is the
centroid or center of mass of the output set.
z This defuzzification. You defuzzify a set when you
replace it with a number or centroid.
 FLIPS

A fuzzy chip walks through this process millions of

times per second in FLIPS or Fuzzy Logical Inference
per Second.

A fuzzy chip takes an input number and compares it to

all input fuzzy sets and gets output sets and converts
them to an output number and then repeats these steps
over and over.
 FLIPS

A fuzzy chip walks through this process millions of

times per second in FLIPS or Fuzzy Logical Inference
per Second.

A fuzzy chip takes an input number and compares it to

all input fuzzy sets and gets output sets and converts
them to an output number and then repeats these steps
over and over.
.
Fuzzy Air Conditioner
We just dealt with the simplest case, when the input
fires one rule, and showed how 650 leads to motor speed
50. Now say the temperature falls to 630. We look at
the set triangles and see that this input belongs 15% to
cool, and belongs 0% to the other sets.
 Fuzzy Air Conditioner

So two rules fire but each fires only to some degree.

RULE 3 fires only 80%.
If the temperature is just right, then the motor
speed is medium.
But now RULE 2 fires 15%.
If the temperature is cool, then the motor speed is
slow. This gives two output sets or triangles.
Fuzzy Air Conditioner
 What is Environmental Friendly?

z Permissible CO2 concentration could be a 350 ppm

(max). For example in a small close room, if there are
6-10 people, this level could be around 600 ppm may be
more which needs to be controlled.
z Therefore, one more FIS designed for this purpose.
z Prototype Type 1 Fuzzy Inference System has been
developed
 Salient Features of Fuzzy
logic Based Environmental
Friendly Air Conditioner -
Prototype*
COEP Team
Rosh Kshirsagar
C. Y. Patil
S.N.Sapli
Ashok Deshpande
*We have patented the prototype and would
continue our research further- useful product
development
 Fuzzy Air-Conditioner Model

Pulse-Width Modulation (PWM) is a very efficient way of

providing intermediate amounts of electrical power between
fully on and fully off.
 Block Diagram

Sensor Circuit
CO2 Temp
Sensor Sensor

Cooling
fan
Microcontroller

Blower fan
 Controller Design

Controller selected-PIC16f73
RISC processor
8 bit in built ADC
3 I/O ports
2 PWM modules

119
 Temperature sensor
Sensor selected LM35

Calibrated directly in Celsius (Centigrade)

Linear a 10.0 mV/ C scale factor
0.5% accuracy (at a25 C)
Rated for full -55 C to +150 C range
Suitable for remote applications
Low cost

120
 CO2 Sensor

Sensor Selected-TGS4161
Range 350 ppm-5000ppm
Suitable for Indoor air Quality control
High selectivity to carbon dioxide
Compact size
Low dependency on humidity
Low power consumption
Long life and low cost

121
Proteus Simulation
Hardware Results
Final Circuit Diagram
 Concluding Remarks

The algorithm used in the development of

Environmental friendly and energy efficient air conditioner
is based on Fuzzy Logic via Computing With Words .

The developed and simulated results are verified.

The team is the process of establishing the fact that the

developed air conditioner will be energy efficient.

Needs further concerted efforts. This is a modest

beginning.
 An Appeal To You All !

z Fuzzy logic and probability theory are two different tools,

like screw drivers and hammers. They were designed
for different tasks. One could conceivably use a hammer
to hammer a screw, yet it is much more effective to use
a screw driver for the job.

z Only after we fully understand the tasks, these tools can

be designed and understand their use properly. Too
often, unfortunately, we have a tendency to avoid
learning how to use a new tool, simply we are using to
use an old tool that we are familiar with.
Professor Lotfi Zadeh once remarked:

If the only tool we know is a hammer,

everything looks like a nail.
 In Sum

Fuzzy logic is not fuzzy. In fact, it is the

precise logic for modeling imprecision and
approximate reasoning. Fuzzy X means
generalisation of x.
This is not the end- not even
beginning of the end . This may,
perhaps, be the end of the
beginning.

Sir Winston Churchill

What is the out come ?

ZERO
Swami Vivekanand says:

Zero is noting which contains

every thing . If nothing is
nothing, then everything is
noting.
 Fuzzy logic via Computing with Words:Case Studies
Ashok Deshpande
Chair: Berkeley Initiative in Soft Computing (BISC)-Special Interest Group (SIG)-Environment Management Systems (EMS)
Email: ashok_deshpande@hotmail.com
I. INTRODUCTION
In science, and especially in mathematics, there have been
and continue to be many instances of problems which for long
periods of time have alluded attempts at solution. Eventually
it was realized or proved that the problems did not admit
solutions. In many real-world settings, there are important
problems which do not have solutions which are provably
valid (p-valid), but have solutions which are fuzzily valid (f-
valid). It is important to develop a better understanding of the
underlying issues. The counter traditional spirit of moving
from the use of numbers to the use of words evoked criticism
and derision rather than approbation. What was not recognized
is that the deliberate sacrifice of precision is a gambita
gambit which opened the door to important applications.
II. COMPUTING WITH WORDS
Computing with Words (CW or CWW) offers an
important capabilitya capability that traditional systems of
computation do not havethe capability to compute with
information described in natural language. The capability to
compute with information described in natural language opens
the door to a wide-ranging enlargement of the role of natural
languages in scientific theories and engineering systems. The
importance of CWW derives from the fact that much of
human knowledgeand especially world knowledgeis
based on perceptions. In large measure, a natural language is a
system for describing perceptions. Moving from computing
with numbers to computing with words has the potential for
evolving into a basic paradigm shifta paradigm shift with
wide-ranging implications for scientific theories and
engineering systems.
The counter traditional spirit of moving from the use of
numbers to the use of words evoked criticism and derision
rather than approbation. What was not recognized is that the
deliberate sacrifice of precision is a gambita gambit which
opened the door to important applications.
Levels of Complexity in CW [1]
There are two principal levels of complexity in CW:
Level 1 CW and Level 2 CW. Historically, Level 2 CW may
be viewed as a sequel to and a generalization of Level 1 CW
(Figure 1). Today, it is Level 1 CW that is in preponderant use
and a center of research activity. In coming years, the intrinsic
importance of Level 2 CW is likely to gain recognition,
leading to a wide variety of applications. The move from
Level 1 CW to Level 2 CW is a move into a largely
unexplored territory. Figure 1 summaries the complexity in
CW. Acceptance of CW has been, and continues to be,
impeded by the deep-seated tradition of respect for numbers
and lack of respect for words. Here, Level 1 CW and Level 2
CW require precisiation of meaning. Precisiation of meaning
in Level 1 CW is much simpler than in Level 2 CW.
Perceptions are intrinsically imprecise, reflecting the bounded
ability of human sensory organs and ultimately the brain, to
resolve detail and store information. Imprecision of
perceptions is passed on to natural languages.
Level 2 CW: Natural Language (NL)
Most Africans are tall
Most tall Africans are black
______________________________
Most2 Africans
are black
Level 2 CW
NL
Linguistic Natural
Language (LNL) (LNL NL) is
Fuzzy Relation
Pressure is
High
LNL
If pressure is Level 1 CW
High then
volume is Low
Figure 1 Computing With Words and Level of Complexity
CW is closely related to computation with natural language
and is also related to granular computing (GrC) but it is
unrelated to natural language processing. Understanding of
meaning is a prerequisite to precisiation of meaning;
precisiation of meaning is a prerequisite to computation.
Precisiation of meaning has a position of centrality in CW. It
is of interest to note that the concept of precisiation, in the
sense in which it is used in CW, does not exist within
linguistics or computational linguistics.
Principal Rationales for CW
The three rationales for CW are:
Rationale A.: Use words when true numbers are not known.
Use of words is a necessity.
Rationale B: Words are good enough. True numbers are
known but there is a tolerance for imprecision which can be
exploited by employing words in place of numbers, aiming at
a reduction in cost and achieving simplicity. Use of words is
advantageous.
Rationale C.: Linguistic summarization. Words are used to
summarize numerical information.
Today, most of the applications of CW, especially in
the realm of consumer products, are based on Rationales B
and C. A key role is played by linguistic summarization. CW
has an interesting and potentially important application to
decision-making. Formulation of a decision problem as a
problem in CW contributes to a better understanding of some
of the basic issues in decision-analysis, especially in the realm
of decision-making with imprecise probabilities. In the CW-
based approach, decision-relevant information plays the role
of the information. What this implies is that decision-relevant
information is allowed to contain information described in a
natural language (or represented through the use of a Z-
mouse). This applies in particular to information related to
risk-aversion, optimism/pessimism ratio, valuation of
monetary gains and losses, imprecise probabilities, etc.
formation set, I.
The point of departure in CW is a question, q, of the
form: What is the value of a variable, X, Associated with q is a
question-relevant information set, I, expressed as X is i,
meaning that an answer to q, Ans (q/I), is to be deduced
(computed) from I (Figure 2). Typically, I consists of a
collection of propositions, pi, I=1, , n, are expressed in a
natural language. I is said to be linguistic if it contains
propositions which are drawn from a natural language. The pi
is carriers of information about X. In general, some of the pi
may be drawn from external sources of information, typically
from world knowledge, +pi. Computation of Answer (q/I) is
described in part by an aggregation function, f.
Basic Structure of CW
NL q depend on natural events such as a victory by the home team or
CW
I
P
Engine Ans q/I
P+
NL
NL
Figure 2 Basic Stricture of Computing With Words
In Summary, CW offers the following:
-When true numbers are not known, CW makes it possible to
compute and reason with words.
-When there is a tolerance for imprecision, CW makes it
possible to reduce cost and achieve simplicity through the use
of words in place of numbers.
-When it is necessary or desirable to summarize numerical
information using words.
-When precisiation of meaning serves a useful purpose.
Examples: Legal reasoning, wording of contracts and
specifications, definition of concepts, human-machine
communication, etc. CW offers an effective precisiation
procedure.
A Simple Example on Computing With Words What is
Durgas age? Answer: First step, partially precisiated
information set, I*: p1*: Age (Son) is *25; p2*: Age
(Daughter) is *35; and +p3*: Age (Mother. at. birth) is usually
[*20,*40] Aggregation function: Age (Durga) is:
(*25+usually [*20,*40] (fusion) (*35+usually [*20,*40]
Where +p3 is world knowledge
III A COMMENTRATY ON CUMULATIVE PROSPECT
THEROY
Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is a descriptive
theory of how people actually make decisions rather than how
they should make decisions. According to CPT, if I invest
money in a prospect or option, then my perceived gain follows
a concave function while expected loss follows a steep convex
function. The CPT researchers have carried out extensive
behavior studies and arrived at these function which are
logical and look attractive. We believe that the decision of
selecting energy options could also be approached with less
computational bother and we believe that the Computing With
Words proposed by Professor Lotfi Zadeh, the father of fuzzy
logic could be a useful armamentarium in this quest. We
briefly describe these two important economic decision
theories but are centered on application of CWW formalism to
Indias Energy Options.
Decisions under risk entail options that have well specified
or transparent outcome probabilities, such as a bet on a coin
toss or a lottery with a known number of tickets[3]. Decisions
under uncertainty, by contrast, entail options whose outcomes
a rise in interest rates, so that probabilities must be estimated
by the decision maker with some degree of vagueness or
imprecision. The concept of risk and the notation of uncertainty
are closely related. We may say that the risk of developing
cancer is 25% for all people in their lifetimes. Once an
individual develops cancer, we can no longer talk about the risk
of cancer, as it is a certainty. Different uncertainties appear in
risk estimation in different ways. If two persons are both heavy
cigarette smokers, one may die of cancer and the other not; but
this cannot be predicted. However, there is a systematic
difference in this respect. For instance: consider a heavy
smoker and a gluttonous eater of peanut butter contains Alfa
toxin. Although Alfa toxin is known to cause cancer (at least
in animals), the risk of cancer is much lower than from
smoking cigarettes. Exactly how much lower is uncertain!
Some estimates of uncertainties are subjective, with differences
of opinion because there is a disagreement in assessing the risk.
Sometimes extreme opinions!
III DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK
There is an extensive literature on decision-making under
risk, but the foundation stone of decision theory is 17th century
correspondence between Pascal and Fermat that laid
fundamental groundwork for the theory of probability.
Daniel Bernoulli's observed that people's utility from
wealth, is not linearly related to wealth but rather increases at a
decreasing rate - the famous concept of diminishing marginal
utility. He asserted that a person's valuation of an option is not
by their objective values but rather by their utility or moral
values. This gives rise to a utility function, which is concave
over states of wealth.
i =1
EU = n
u (xi ) pi
Where u (xi) represents the utility of obtaining outcome xi.
Further, Tversky and Kahneman have demonstrated in
numerous highly controlled experiments that most people
systematically violate all of the basic axioms of expected utility
Figure 3. Progressive development in the area of decision makingh under
risk and uncertainty.
theory in their actual decision making behavior at least some
times. In response to their findings, Tversky and Kahneman
proposed a theory of choice, based on psychophysical model,
which accurately describes how people go about making their
decisions. The Original Prospect Theory (OPT), suggested by
Kahneman and Tversky in 1979, is based on non-linear
transformation of outcome and probabilities, which allow
describing psychological aspects of decision-making. The OPT
developed for simple prospects with monetary outcomes and
stated probabilities has three major characteristics:
OPT predicts that people go through two distinct stages
while taking decisions. In the first phase, decision makers are
predicted to edit a complicated decision into a simpler
prospect, usually specified in terms of gains or losses. In the
second phase, the decision makers evaluate each of the edited
prospects available to them and choose the prospect of highest
value between the edited prospects. This evaluation is
expressed in terms of two scales w and v. The first scale w
associates with each probability p a decision weight w (p)
which shows the impact of p on the over all value of the
prospect. The second scale, v, assigns to each outcome a
number v(x) that gives the subjective value of that outcome x.
Therefore, the evaluation function for a prospect (xi, pi) is given
by
V ( xi , pi ) = v( xi ) w( pi )
Where pi is perceived probability of outcome xi, w (pi) is the
probability weighting function and v (xi) is value function.
In brief, PT encounters two problems:
1. Weighting function does not always satisfy
stochastic dominance and,
2. OPT cannot be applied to prospects with a
large number of outcomes.
Following Tversky and Kahneman [4], the value function
can be parameterized as a power function
x , x 0
v( x ) =
( x) , x < 0
Where, measure the curvature of the value function for
gains and losses, respectively, and is the coefficient of loss
aversion. This value function for gains and losses is
increasingly concave and convex respectively for, <1. The
weighting function, defined by Tversky and Kahneman [10], is
an inverse-S-shaped weighting function. It is concave near 0
and convex near 1 as presented in the Fig. 3. It is very clearly
explaining the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes as the low are
overweighed (leading to risk seeking for gains and risk
aversion for losses) and high probabilities are underweighted
the weighting function (leading to risk seeking for losses and
risk aversion for gains). It also satisfies Allais paradox.
Therefore, this modified inverse-S-shaped weighting is more
consistent with a range of empirical findings.
Following Lattimore et al. [5], the weighting function can
be parameterized in the following form
p
w( p) =
p + (1 p)
It assumes that the relation between w and p is linear in a log-
odds metric. Here measures the elevation of the weighting
function and measures its degree of curvature.
Observations on Cumulative Prospect Theory
Invariably, the gains and losses are at the back of the mind
of a decision maker while taking any decision. However, we
feel that he does not think of concave or steep convex
functions, while deciding options or prospects as suggested in
CPT. In addition, estimation of the functions suggested in the
CPT model is difficult to achieve in practice.
It is our belief that, in practice, most of the decisions are
taken by the domain knowledge experts with recourse to their
perceptions. It would be desirable to try the formalism, which
requires less number of parameters in decision making under
risk and uncertainty, especially in reference to the energy
options.
IV COMPUTING WITH WORDS : CASE STUDIES
In this section, the application of CWW formalism has been
demonstrated for the two important issues of relevance under
Indian context. The first issue deals with the planning of
energy for the country till 2030. The Government of India is
making all out efforts to try out all the energy options and
have recognised in research needs in the development of non
conventional energy sources such as bio fuel, solar energy,
wind energy and alike. In spite of the best efforts, the country
will have to use the conventional energy resources. How to
decide on these options? The write up will address this
question with possible solution.
CASE STUDY 1
A] STUDY OF VIABLE CONVENTIONAL ENERGY
OPTION FOR INDIA USING CWW METHODOLOGY
DECISIONMAKING UNDER RISK
Nature's real estate such as water, minerals, oil & gas,
and coal -is the precious gift available for the welfare of
mankind since time immemorial. In spite of the efforts
initiated by many countries in the development of non-
conventional energy resources, it is too early to visualize that
the gap between supply and demand of energy for the peaceful
purpose could be bridged in the near future at least in Indian
context.. It is true that major decisions such as selecting
energy options for the country are made without advance
knowledge of their consequences. Expected utility theory,
Prospect theory are some of the economic theories used in
decision making under risk.
Let us assume that the projected total energy needs of a
Country A in the year 2030 are 1000,000 MW [6].
Assume 70% power generation using non-conventional
energy resources. Therefore, the balance energy needs of
300,00MW will have to be met from the conventional energy
resource. Keeping in view the ground realities that Country A
has already installed power plants of around 160,000 MW.
Thus the additional electrical energy requirements in 2030 will
be approximately 140,000 MW.
The collation of the logically assumed information is as
follows:

Power generation (gain) through hydro energy is
medium (as the water resources are diminishing due
to environmental degradation) on the basis of water
availability. The probability of its failure i.e. risk due
to accident (man made/ natural disaster) is also
assumed to be medium by the domain expert group.


Computed energy generation using coal and oil/& gas
termed as thermal power is very low. Also its risk of
failure is very low.


Consider Country A is in the final phase of its
development of nuclear fuel and also in agreement
with some other country for supply of nuclear fuel for
the sustained power generation. Therefore, power
generation through nuclear option is very high. Some
how, nuclear power plants have been over criticized
because of one single unfortunate accident at
Chernobyl plant. Keeping in view the pubic
sentiments alone, risk of its failure is assumed as very
high.
4. A Word of caution: It is hoped that concerned
organizations will take cognizance of diligently
carried out environment impact assessment studies
and the public debate about the feasibility these plant
locations. Only intellectuals, with clean image who
can work selflessly with the local community, should
be involved in the process of site location for any
plant.
Consider Fuzzy set A for generated power wherein
outcome is as gain, X, which depends upon the availability
and over all cost / MWe. Fuzzy set B refers to the over all
energy requirement, Y, while set C expresses the failure of
power (outcome as loss), Z, termed equivalent. The
membership functions for X, Y and Z are considered as
linear increasing functions.
Note: Understanding of meaning is a prerequisite to
precisiation of meaning. Precisiation of meaning is a
prerequisite to computation; The expressions given below
justify the concept of precisiation proposed by Professor
Zadeh in his seminal work on CW methodology. It is of
interest to note that the concept of precisiation, in the sense
in which it is used in CW, does not exist within linguistics
or computational linguistics. Expressions stated below
explain the concept of precisiation.
The mathematical functions of membership {A (x), B (y)
and C (z)} functions for gains, total energy requirement, and
losses (expressed as energy equivalent) are as follows [6]:
0 0 x 10000
A(x ) = (x-a)/ (b-a ) 100,000 x 110,000
1 x 110000
0 0 x 110,000
B(y ) = ( x-a)/ (b-a ) 110,000 x 160,000
 1 x 160,000 In case of the Hydro energy option, the user defines medium
energy gain and medium risk as X (50000, 60000) and Z
(9000, 8000). Following similar computational procedure
presented in nuclear option, the final matrix after using the
0 0 x 1000
C(z ) = (x-a)/ (b-a ) 1000 x 14,000
1 x 14,000 3) Thermal energy option

In case of the thermal energy option, very low energy gain

and very low risk are defined by the user as follows X (13000,
The perceived total energy requirement as approx. 140,000 18000) and Z (1500, 2200)
MW, Y can be considered as [140,000, 150,000]. where
y1=140,000 MW and y2=150,000 MW. Since fuzzy relation R Th is defined from X to Y and fuzzy
~
1) Nuclear energy option relation S Th is defined fuzzy relation matrix T Th as
~ ~
In case of the nuclear option, consider high energy gain and After the defuzzification of all the fuzzy relation matrices
high risk, defined by the user as follows
T N , T Hy and T Th by considering =0.08, therefore, we
N ~ ~ ~
Consider a fuzzy set A (near optimum-gain) with have
~

x1=90000 MW and x2=100000 MW, and a set C N (expected- z1 z2 z1 z2

~
x 1 1 x 1 1
loss) with z1=10000 MW and z2=11000 MW, based on user s TN = 1 1 1 and T Hy == 1 1 1 and
input. x2 x2
z1 z2
The fuzzy Cartesian product between A N and B and B x 0 0
~ ~ ~
T Th == 1
x 2 0 1
N
and C could be worked out as given below:
~

y1 y2 It is prudent to calculate the ratio as that could alone help in

x1 0.6 0.8 deciding the viable option.
RN =
~ x 2 0.6 0.8 Calculate ratio of loss and gain

z2 2200
z1 z2 For thermal; = = 0.122
x 2 18000
y1 0.6 0.6
SN =
~ y 2 0.69 0.77 For hydro;
z1 z z z
= 0.16, 1 = 0.133, 2 = 0.18, 2 = 0.15
x1 x2 x1 x2
Since fuzzy relation R N is defined from X to Y and fuzzy
~ For Nuclear;
N
relation S is defined from Y to Z, then fuzzy max-min
z1 z z z
~
N N
= 0.11, 1 = 0.1, 2 = 0.122, 2 = 0.11
composition between R and S results into the following x1 x2 x1 x2
~ ~
N We can draw useful conclusion form the computational
fuzzy relation matrix T as
~ procedure that the ration of loss and gain is minimum in case of
Nuclear energy option. This is the reason for deciding Nuclear
Energy as the viable option. or prospect.
z1 z2
x 0.69 0.77 B] case study 2
TN = 1
~ x 2 0.69 0.77 ENVIRONMETNAL FRIENDLY FUZZY LOGIC BASED AIR
CONDITIONER
2) Hydro energy option
Global warming and continuous emissions of green
house gases into the atmosphere are the two key issues of
immediate relevance. In addition, suffocating in a small closed
room with air conditioner on is a common scene. This is due
to accumulation of CO2 in the room. The Permissible CO2
concentration could be a 350 ppm (max) for human being. For
example, in a small close cubical if there are 6-8 people, the
CO2 level could be as high as 500. ppm. This calls for the
design of a separate sensor in addition to one that controls the
desired temperature.
Based on the defined principles of fuzzy logic, the
College of Engineering Pune (COEP) team has designed a
prototype air conditioner which has now been patented. Two
fuzzy inference systems (FIS) are, therefore, designed and
implemented. This is an ongoing effort and will take some
more time to finalise the marketable product. Figure 4 depicts
the outcome of the implementation
Hardware Results
Figure 4 Environmental Friendly and energy Efficient Fuzzy
logic based Air Conditioner.
V DISCUSSION AND CONCLUDING REMARKS
The two valued logic and probability theory is the basis of
prospect theory. It is a deep-seated tradition in science to
employ the conceptual structure of bivalent logic and
probability theory as a basis for formulation of definitions and
concepts. What is widely unrecognized is that, in reality, most
concepts are fuzzy rather than bivalent, and, in general, it is not
possible to formulate a co intensive definition of a fuzzy
concept within the conceptual structure of bivalent logic and
probability theory. It is, therefore, our endeavor to develop a
formulation for decision making with imprecise probabilities in
fuzzy scenario, which might be useful and more realistic, in
general, in the decision making under risk for the country
energy policies.
Decision-making problems under risk and uncertainty is
always a great challenge to the decision researchers for many
decades as there is no definitive theory, which could help in
arriving at the desired outcome.
Case study 1 on energy options was approached using
Computing With Words methodology wherein gains, losses
and total energy requirements are expressed in linguistic terms
or hedges. Precisiation of meaning is the key point in CW. We
once again conclude or confirm using CW methodology that
nuclear energy is the viable option. It is important to note that
in CW, only perception of the domain experts, who have (and
we believe) adequate understanding of the several issues are
needed. Therefore, there is less computational bother as the
decision makers are not supposed to carry out extensive social
surveys for the estimation of several parameters, which might
not have any practical relevance and could be at best be
considered as an intellectual exercise. The need for extensive
research in policy issues is recognized.
Fuzzy logic based environmental friendly and energy
efficient air conditioner once again demonstrates the utility of
Computing With Words.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
We are deeply indebted and would like to express our
immense gratitude towards Professor Lotfi A. Zadeh, the father
of fuzzy logic for his motivation, all helpful and insightful
suggestions, and constant encouragement. Assistance from
Vidyottma Jain , CY Patil and Roshan Kshirsagar is gratefully
acknowledged.
REFERENCES
[1] Zadeh, L.A; Computing with WordsWhy? and How? Presented July
12, 2010 WORLDCOMP 201 Las Vegas, NV USA.
[2] V. Jain and A. Deshpande, Prospect Theory on Energy Options?
Towards Decision Making under Risk, Submitted ICRESH 2010.
[3] F. H. Knight, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, New York:Hart, Schaffner,
and Marx, 1921.
[4] D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, Prospect theory: an analysis of decision
under risk, Econometrica, vol. 4, pp 263 291, 1979. A. Tversky and
D. Kahneman, Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation
of uncertainty, J. Risk Uncertainty, vol. 5, no. 4, pp 297323, 1992.
[5] P.K. Lattimore, J.R. Baker, and A.D. Witte, The influence of
probability on risky choiceA parametric examination, J. Econ.
Behav. Organ., vol. 17, no. 3, pp 377400, 1992.
[6] A.Deshpande and V. Jain Computing with Words on Energy Options?-
Towards Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty Int. J. Nuclear
Knowledge Management( accepted for publication)
.
Ashok Deshpande, Chair Berkeley Initiative in Soft Computing (BISC)-
Special interest Group (SIG)-Environment Management Systems (EMS) holds
a PhD degree in Engineering and Technology. He is an Adjunct Professor at
College of Engineering Pune (COEP) India. In the past, Dr. Ashok was
Deputy Director, National Environmental Engineering Research Institute
(NEERI) /CSIR. He has over 4 decades of R&D experience and has over 100
publications in the Journals of international repute/conferences. Dr Deshpande
has contribution in various facets of environmental engineering with special
reference to water supply engineering, risk analysis for chemical process
industry, and reliability engineering applications to variety of engineering
systems. Though worked on complex mathematical techniques, in early 80s,
he got interested in fuzzy logic applications initially to environment
management systems and later to several systems in science and technology.
Dr. Ashok was WHO Adviser, Common Wealth Science Council Resource
Scientist, World Bank Project Director for the studies on Probabilistic Risk
Assessment for Chemical Process industry. He also organized a Workshop as
WHO Adviser in 5 countries on Unaccounted for Water Management and also
assisted Danish International Development Authority (DANIDA) as a Project
Advisor.
More importantly, Professor Lotfi Zadeh, the founder of fuzzy logic, after
listening to many seminar talks, asked Professor Ashok Deshpande to be the
Chair of Berkeley (BISC)-(SIG)-(EMS). He is also guest faculty at the
University of California Berkeley and visiting scientist at Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory, CA. In 2004, Dr. Ashok was invited by the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as an expert for organizing a Training
Program at CDTN, Brazil on Fuzzy logic with applications and again in 2006.
In March 2008 Professor Deshpande organized a Training workshop on Fuzzy
sets and Fuzzy logic with Applications at the University of Illinois Chicago
USA (sponsored by Vshwamitra Research Institute Chicago) and in
Kathmandu, Nepal in 2009. Dr. Deshpandes has a passion and mission to
propagate the use of fuzzy logic nationally and internationally. At present, his
all doctoral students work only on fuzzy logic related topics. Professor Ashok
Deshpande is deeply interested in Indian classical music.