PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE A 4 AOS

MES Ao 1 Ao 2 Ao 3 Ao 4 Ft Et
1 55220 39875 32180 62377 47413 14964.00
2 57350 64128 38600 66501 56645 9856.25
3 15445 47653 25020 31404 29881 1523.50
4 27776 43050 51300 36504 39658 -3153.50
5 21408 39359 31790 16888 27361 -10473.25
6 17118 10317 32100 18909 19611 -702.00
7 18028 45194 59832 35500 39639 -4138.50
8 19883 46530 30740 51250 37101 14149.25
9 15796 22105 47800 34443 30036 4407.00
10 53665 41350 73890 68088 59248 8839.75
11 83269 46024 60202 68175 64418 3757.50
12 72.991 41856 56200 61100 39807 21292.75
TOTAL 60322.75

Errores de Pronostico
Error de Pronostico Sesgo (CFE) 60322.75
80000
Error de Pronostico Sesgo promedio 5026.90
Error Cuadratico Medio MSE 102158811.30 70000
Desviacion Estandar 9158.55 60000
Desviacion Absoluta MAD 8104.77
50000
Seal de Seguimiento TS 7.44

PRODUCCION
Error Porcentual Absoluto MAPE 18.62% 40000

30000
Seal de Seguimiento 20000
8.00 10000
12; 7.44
7.00
6.00 0
1 2
5.00
4.00 TS
TS

3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
MESES
 RSFE IEtI SDA Et^2 EPA (Et-Ep)^2
14964.00 14964.00 14964.00 223921296.00 23.99% 98746035.49
24820.25 9856.25 24820.25 97145664.06 14.82% 23322659.86
26343.75 1523.50 26343.75 2321052.25 4.85% 12273783.68
23190.25 3153.50 29497.25 9944562.25 8.64% 66918879.06
12717.00 10473.25 39970.50 109688965.56 62.02% 240254526.67
12015.00 702.00 40672.50 492804.00 3.71% 32820249.62
7876.50 4138.50 44811.00 17127182.25 11.66% 84004484.22
22025.75 14149.25 58960.25 200201275.56 27.61% 83217342.12
26432.75 4407.00 63367.25 19421649.00 12.80% 384271.08
35272.50 8839.75 72207.00 78141180.06 12.98% 14537855.47
39030.00 3757.50 75964.50 14118806.25 5.51% 1611366.26
60322.75 21292.75 97257.25 453381298.38 34.85% 264578078.87
97257.25 1225905735.63 223.43% 922669532.38

Demanda vs Pronosticado
80000

70000

60000

50000 DEMANDA
PRODUCCION

Pronosticado
40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 MAD TS
14964.00 1.00
12410.13 2.00
8781.25 3.00
7374.31 3.14
7994.10 1.59
6778.75 1.77
6401.57 1.23
7370.03 2.99
7040.81 3.75
7220.70 4.88
6905.86 5.65
8104.77 7.44

DEMANDA
Pronosticado

PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO
MES Ao 1 Ao 2 Ao 3 Ao 4 Ft Et
1 55220 39875 32180 62377 54104 8272.91
2 57350 64128 38600 66501 64145 2356.08
3 15445 47653 25020 31404 34926 -3521.68
4 27776 43050 51300 36504 45651 -9146.58
5 21408 39359 31790 16888 29681 -12792.91
6 17118 10317 32100 18909 22719 -3809.73
7 18028 45194 59832 35500 46862 -11362.30
8 19883 46530 30740 51250 45362 5888.05
9 15796 22105 47800 34443 36702 -2258.71
10 53665 41350 73890 68088 69151 -1063.21
11 83269 46024 60202 68175 70690 -2515.45
12 72.991 41856 56200 61100 52997 8103.05
TOTAL -21850.48

Errores de Pronostico
Error de Pronostico Sesgo (CFE) -21850.48
Error de Pronostico Sesgo promedio -1820.87
Error Cuadratico Medio MSE 49184750.65
Desviacion Estandar 7073.83
Desviacion Absoluta MAD 5924.22
Seal de Seguimiento TS -3.69
Error Porcentual Absoluto MAPE 18.13%

Seal de Seguimiento
3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
-1.00
TS
TS

-2.00

-3.00
12; -3.69
-4.00

-5.00

-6.00
MESES
-6.00
MESES
 0.15 0.25 0.3

RSFE IEtI SDA Et^2 EPA (Et-Ep)^2

8272.91 8272.91 8272.91 68441039.87 13.26% 101884459.71
10628.99 2356.08 10628.99 5551112.97 3.54% 17446938.21
7107.31 3521.68 14150.67 12402230.02 11.21% 2892743.70
-2039.27 9146.58 23297.25 83659925.70 25.06% 53665979.81
-14832.18 12792.91 36090.16 163658546.27 75.75% 120385591.08
-18641.91 3809.73 39899.89 14514042.67 20.15% 3955551.29
-30004.21 11362.30 51262.19 129101861.29 32.01% 91038824.98
-24116.16 5888.05 57150.24 34669132.80 11.49% 59427497.22
-26374.87 2258.71 59408.95 5101770.86 6.56% 191701.05
-27438.08 1063.21 60472.16 1130415.50 1.56% 574053.56
-29953.53 2515.45 62987.61 6327488.70 3.69% 482436.90
-21850.48 8103.05 71090.66 65659441.18 13.26% 98484278.89
71090.66 590217007.84 217.54% 550430056.40

Demanda vs Pronosticado
80000

70000

60000

50000 DEMA
PRODUCCION

Prono
40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

14

TS

; -3.69
 0.42

MAD TS
8272.91 1.00
5314.50 2.00
4716.89 1.51
5824.31 -0.35
7218.03 -2.05
6649.98 -2.80
7323.17 -4.10
7143.78 -3.38
6600.99 -4.00
6047.22 -4.54
5726.15 -5.23
5924.22 -3.69

DEMANDA
Pronosticado

0 11 12
 SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL
MES Ao 1 Ao 2 Ao 3 Ao 4 Ft
1 55220 39875 32180 62377 56338
2 57350 64128 38600 66501 60921
3 15445 47653 25020 31404 30127
4 27776 43050 51300 36504 39463
5 21408 39359 31790 16888 19868
6 17118 10317 32100 18909 21547
7 18028 45194 59832 35500 40366
8 19883 46530 30740 51250 47148
9 15796 22105 47800 34443 37114
10 53665 41350 73890 68088 69248
11 83269 46024 60202 68175 66580
12 72.991 41856 56200 61100 60120
TOTAL

Errores de Pronostico
Error de Pronostico Sesgo (CFE) 2297.00
Error de Pronostico Sesgo promedio 191.42
Error Cuadratico Medio MSE 12194771.58
Desviacion Estandar 3641.90
Desviacion Absoluta MAD 3070.75
Seal de Seguimiento TS 0.75
Error Porcentual Absoluto MAPE 8.08%

Seal de Seguimiento
3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

TS
1.50
TS

1.00
12; 0.75
0.50

0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
-0.50
MESES
 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
-0.50
MESES
 0.2

Et RSFE IEtI SDA Et^2 EPA

6039.40 6039.40 6039.40 6039.40 36474352.36 9.68%
5580.20 11619.60 5580.20 11619.60 31138632.04 8.39%
1276.80 12896.40 1276.80 12896.40 1630218.24 4.07%
-2959.20 9937.20 2959.20 15855.60 8756864.64 8.11%
-2980.40 6956.80 2980.40 18836.00 8882784.16 17.65%
-2638.20 4318.60 2638.20 21474.20 6960099.24 13.95%
-4866.40 -547.80 4866.40 26340.60 23681848.96 13.71%
4102.00 3554.20 4102.00 30442.60 16826404.00 8.00%
-2671.40 882.80 2671.40 33114.00 7136377.96 7.76%
-1160.40 -277.60 1160.40 34274.40 1346528.16 1.70%
1594.60 1317.00 1594.60 35869.00 2542749.16 2.34%
980.00 2297.00 980.00 36849.00 960400.00 1.60%
2297.00 36849.00 146337258.92 96.96%

Demanda vs Pronosticado
80000

70000

60000

50000
PRODUCCION

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1

TS

12; 0.75

0 12 14
0 12 14
 (Et-Ep)^2 MAD TS
34198909.07 6039.40 0.00
29038985.81 5809.80 2.00
1178056.98 4298.80 3.00
9926385.38 3963.90 2.51
10060420.97 3767.20 1.85
8006730.48 3579.03 1.21
25581509.43 3762.94 -0.15
15292662.01 3805.33 0.93
8195719.27 3679.33 0.24
1827408.30 3427.44 -0.08
1968923.47 3260.82 0.40
621863.67 3070.75 0.75
145897574.84

s Pronosticado

DEMANDA
Pronosticado

7 8 9 10 11 12
 SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL TENDENCIA
MES Ao 1 Ao 2 Ao 3 Ao 4 Ft
1 55220 39875 32180 62377 54526
2 57350 64128 38600 66501 59247
3 15445 47653 25020 31404 29744
4 27776 43050 51300 36504 40351
5 21408 39359 31790 16888 20763
6 17118 10317 32100 18909 22339
7 18028 45194 59832 35500 41826
8 19883 46530 30740 51250 45917
9 15796 22105 47800 34443 37916
10 53665 41350 73890 68088 69597
11 83269 46024 60202 68175 66102
12 72.991 41856 56200 61100 59826
TOTAL

Errores de Pronostico
Error de Pronostico Sesgo (CFE) 2986.10
Error de Pronostico Sesgo promedio 248.84
Error Cuadratico Medio MSE 20609163.96
Desviacion Estandar 4734.47
Desviacion Absoluta MAD 3991.98
Seal de Seguimiento TS 0.75
Error Porcentual Absoluto MAPE 10.50%

Seal de Seguimiento
3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00 TS

1.50
TS

1.00
12; 0.75
0.50

0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

-0.50 MESES
0.50

0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

-0.50 MESES
 0.2 0.3 T 0

Et RSFE IEtI SDA Et^2 EPA

7851.22 7851.22 7851.22 7851.22 61641655.49 12.59%
7254.26 15105.48 7254.26 15105.48 52624288.15 10.91%
1659.84 16765.32 1659.84 16765.32 2755068.83 5.29%
-3846.96 12918.36 3846.96 20612.28 14799101.24 10.54%
-3874.52 9043.84 3874.52 24486.80 15011905.23 22.94%
-3429.66 5614.18 3429.66 27916.46 11762567.72 18.14%
-6326.32 -712.14 6326.32 34242.78 40022324.74 17.82%
5332.60 4620.46 5332.60 39575.38 28436622.76 10.41%
-3472.82 1147.64 3472.82 43048.20 12060478.75 10.08%
-1508.52 -360.88 1508.52 44556.72 2275632.59 2.22%
2072.98 1712.10 2072.98 46629.70 4297246.08 3.04%
1274.00 2986.10 1274.00 47903.70 1623076.00 2.09%
2986.10 47903.70 247309967.57 126.05%

Demanda vs Pronosticado
80000

70000

60000

50000
PRODUCCION

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1

TS

12; 0.75

12 14
12 14
 (Et-Ep)^2 MAD TS
57796156.32 7851.22 0.00
49075886.03 7552.74 2.00
1990916.30 5588.44 3.00
16775591.29 5153.07 2.51
17002111.43 4897.36 1.85
13531374.51 4652.74 1.21
43232750.94 4891.83 -0.15
25844598.79 4946.92 0.93
13850765.56 4783.13 0.24
3088320.03 4455.67 -0.08
3327480.66 4239.06 0.40
1050949.61 3991.98 0.75
246566901.47

s Pronosticado

DEMANDA
Pronosticado

7 8 9 10 11 12
 REGRESION LINEAL
MES Ao 1 Ao 2 Ao 3 Ao 4 Ft
1 55220 39875 32180 62377 38867
2 57350 64128 38600 66501 40151
3 15445 47653 25020 31404 41434
4 27776 43050 51300 36504 42718
5 21408 39359 31790 16888 44002
6 17118 10317 32100 18909 45286
7 18028 45194 59832 35500 46570
8 19883 46530 30740 51250 47853
9 15796 22105 47800 34443 49137
10 53665 41350 73890 68088 50421
11 83269 46024 60202 68175 51705
12 72.991 41856 56200 61100 52989
TOTAL

Errores de Pronostico
Error de Pronostico Sesgo (CFE) 6.60
Error de Pronostico Sesgo promedio 0.55
Error Cuadratico Medio MSE 318031708.38
Desviacion Estandar 18626.42
Desviacion Absoluta MAD 15917.08
Seal de Seguimiento TS 0.00
Error Porcentual Absoluto MAPE 47.51%

Seal de Seguimiento
3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00 12; 0.00

TS

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

-1.00

-2.00

-3.00 MESES
-2.00

-3.00 MESES

Regresion Lineal 4
80000
70000
60000
50000 f(x) = 1283.8426573427x + 37583.2727272727
R = 0.0581676573 Column F
40000
Axis Title Linear (Column F
30000
20000
10000
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Axis Title
 Promedio Et RSFE IEtI SDA Et^2
47413 23510.20 23510.20 23510.20 23510.20 552729504.04
56645 26350.40 49860.60 26350.40 49860.60 694343580.16
29881 -10030.40 39830.20 10030.40 59891.00 100608924.16
39658 -6214.20 33616.00 6214.20 66105.20 38616281.64
27361 -27114.00 6502.00 27114.00 93219.20 735168996.00
19611 -26376.80 -19874.80 26376.80 119596.00 695735578.24
39639 -11069.60 -30944.40 11069.60 130665.60 122536044.16
37101 3396.60 -27547.80 3396.60 134062.20 11536891.56
30036 -14694.20 -42242.00 14694.20 148756.40 215919513.64
59248 17667.00 -24575.00 17667.00 166423.40 312122889.00
64418 16470.20 -8104.80 16470.20 182893.60 271267488.04
39807 8111.40 6.60 8111.40 191005.00 65794809.96
6.60 191005.00 3816380500.60

Demanda vs Pronostic
80000

70000

60000

50000
PRODUCCION

40000

30000

nto 20000

10000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Regresion Lineal promedia

70000
TS
60000
12; 0.00
10 12 14 50000

40000 f(x) = 674.8399484266x + 36514.894314394

Demanda

R = 0.0313880452
30000

20000

10000

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Aos
 De
20000

10000

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Aos

al 4

2727272727
Column F
Linear (Column F)

12 14
 EPA (Et-Ep)^2 MAD TS
37.69% 552703643.12 23510.20 0.00
39.62% 694314595.02 24930.30 2.00
31.94% 100619957.90 19963.67 2.00
17.02% 38623117.56 16526.30 2.03
160.55% 735198821.70 18643.84 0.35
139.49% 695764593.02 19932.67 -1.00
31.18% 122548221.02 18666.51 -1.66
6.63% 11533155.60 16757.78 -1.64
42.66% 215935677.56 16528.49 -2.56
25.95% 312103455.60 16642.34 -1.48
24.16% 271249371.12 16626.69 -0.49
13.28% 65785887.72 15917.08 0.00
570.18% 3816380496.97

manda vs Pronosticado

DEMANDA
Pronosticado

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

n Lineal promedial

+ 36514.894314394
Demanda
Linear (Demanda)

8 10 12 14
os
 8 10 12 14
os