ARCTIC TIME BOMB

Permafrost is permanently frozen ground, generally thousands of years old.

Permafrost covers 15 million km2 of the Earth's land surface1 and comprises 24% of
Northern Hemisphere land.2 More permafrost is melting each summer e.g. in western
Siberia3 and this is expected to increase significantly by 2020. By the mid-21st century,
the area of permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to decline by 20-35%.4,
5

A study6 warns that permafrost loss is likely to be 4 million km for each 1C (1.8F)
temperature rise, about 20% higher than previous studies. It predicts that if the climate
is stabilized at 2C above pre-industrial levels, the permafrost area would eventually be
reduced by over 40%. Stabilizing at 1.5C rather than 2C would save approximately
2 million km2 of permafrost.
Permafrost contains almost twice as much carbon (around 1500 petagrams/gigatons)
as is present in the atmosphere. As it thaws, the organic matter in it decays and gets
digested by microbes. The bacteria that eat it produce either carbon dioxide (CO2) or
methane (CH4) as waste. If the Arctic permafrost releases more carbon than it absorbs,
it will start a cycle where the extra carbon in the atmosphere leads to increased
warming. The increased warming means more permafrost thawing and methane
release. When permafrost carbon turns into methane, it bubbles up through soil and
water, escaping into the atmosphere.7 One analysis suggests that 130-160 Pg/Gt of
carbon might be released from thawing permafrost between now and 2100. 8
The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the amplification of surface warming due to
CO2 and CH4 emissions from thawing permafrost. Emissions from thawing permafrost
will continue, or even accelerate, after 2100 unless global warming is contained.
Some scientists have estimated the tipping point for continuous Siberian permafrost
thaw to be as low as 1.50C.9
Methane has 86 times more warming power than CO2 in the first 20 years and 34 times
over 100 years.10 It is also a highly flammable gas. Current methane levels in the Arctic
are unprecedented.
It is estimated that hundreds of gigatons of methane hydrate (a frozen form of
methane and water) lie buried beneath frozen tundra ground or in ocean stores
beneath the seabed. Global warming could destabilize these methane hydrate stores
and release them.
A new study11 highlights the fact that the most significant variable in the Permian Mass
Extinction event, which occurred 250 million years ago and annihilated 90% of all the
species on the planet, was methane hydrate.
Methane-driven oceanic eruptions from thawing methane hydrate would eject a large
amount of methane and other gases (like CO2 and toxic hydrogen sulphide) into the
atmosphere, covering large areas of land.

1 http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n5/full/nclimate3262.html
2 https://www.wunderground.com/resources/climate/melting_permafrost.asp
3 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v443/n7107/abs/nature05040.html
4 http://www.wunderground.com/resources/climate/melting_permafrost.asp
5 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v443/n7107/abs/nature05040.html
6 http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n5/full/nclimate3262.html
7 https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/frozenground/methane.html
8 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v520/n7546/abs/nature14338.html
9 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/aug/05/7-facts-need-to-know-arctic-methane-time-bomb and

http://www.climategeology.ethz.ch/publications/2013_Vaks_et_al.Scienceexpress.pdf
10 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential
11 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1871174X16300488

July 2017
 The air-methane mixture is explosive at methane concentrations between 5% and 15%;
such mixtures form in different locations near the ground and can be ignited e.g. by
lightning, into racing fireballs. Such explosions could destroy most of terrestrial life.12
People could be incinerated where they stand.
Firestorms will carry smoke and dust into the upper atmosphere, where they could
remain for several years; the resulting darkness and global cooling may provide an
additional kill mechanism.13
The Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) is the largest ice shelf in the world,
encompassing more than 2 million sq. km, or 8% of the world's total area of
continental shelf.14 It is a giant reservoir of methane hydrates. A 50 Gt "burp" of
methane, equivalent to 1,000 Gt of CO2, from thawing Arctic permafrost beneath the
East Siberian sea is highly possible.15 This could cause catastrophic climate change and
cost the world USD 60 trillion.16
A 2011 study17 of the Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), conducted by more than 20
Arctic experts, concluded that the shelf was already a powerful supplier of methane to
the atmosphere. The conclusion was that the methane concentration in the atmosphere
was at levels capable of causing "a considerable and even catastrophic warming on the
Earth."18
Increasing methane plumes (eruptions) in the shallow ESAS have been reported over
recent years.19 In 2014, there was a violent methane explosion in Yamal, Russia,
leaving a huge crater about 40 m wide and 50 m deep.20 By early 2015, scientists had
discovered seven giant craters in remote Siberia.21,22 Scientists fear catastrophic
methane releases/eruptions, especially from the ocean, on far bigger scales (than the
2014 Yamal event) from thawing methane hydrate stores.
To make matters worse, another 2017 study23 further warns that permafrost thaw
could greatly increase emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) from northern permafrost
peatlands, a threat which is bigger than previously perceived. N2O is a strong
greenhouse gas: almost 300 times more powerful per unit mass in warming the climate
than CO2. The study states that peatland permafrost could emit as much N2O as
tropical forests and contribute to global warming significantly.
Global climate models do not adequately account for thawing permafrost, so current
projections of future climate are likely to be too optimistic.24 Growth in methane and
nitrous oxide concentrations in the atmosphere are capable of causing catastrophic
climate change.25,26

12 http://www.cornellcollege.edu/geology/courses/greenstein/paleo/methane.pdf
13 http://www.cornellcollege.edu/geology/courses/greenstein/paleo/methane.pdf
14 http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/39957-release-of-arctic-methane-may-be-apocalyptic-study-warns
15 http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/39957-release-of-arctic-methane-may-be-apocalyptic-study-warns
16 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jul/24/arctic-thawing-permafrost-climate-change
17 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S1028334X12080144%
18 http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/39957-release-of-arctic-methane-may-be-apocalyptic-study-warns
19 http://arctic-news.blogspot.my/2014/08/horrific-methane-eruptions-in-east-siberian-sea.html
20 http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0076-how-global-warming-could-turn-siberia-into-a-giant-crater-time-bomb/
21 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/huge-siberian-craters-widening-as-explosions-heard-100km-away-and-glow-in-

sky-seen-by-locals-a7079921.html
22 http://earthsky.org/earth/new-explanation-for-siberias-mystery-craters
23 https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/05/170531091452.htm
24 http://whrc.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/PB_Permafrost.pdf
25 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/aug/05/7-facts-need-to-know-arctic-methane-time-bomb
26 https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/05/170531091452.htm

July 2017