SpaceX Suborbital Shuttle - Anywhere On Earth in 25 Minutes

02/10/2017 SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in 25 minutes?
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SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in 25 minutes?
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Ben the Space SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in 25

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on: 09/29/2017 06:11 AM
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Well, I turned on my compute this morning to be confronted with a surprise in my YouTube recommended videos! Check
this out!
BFR | Earth to Earth

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A spaceflight fan
London, UK
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Yes, you saw that right. SpaceX are proposing to use BFR and a crew vehicle derived from ITS as a city-to-city
suborbital passenger shuttle! So, the question arising is this: Is this the 'killer app' that will turn ITS from a pipe dream
into a real consumer product? What does everyone think?
[edit]
Typo corrected
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DreamyPickle Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #1 on: 09/29/2017 06:22 AM
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I'm not buying it, not without major changes. I bet we'll see a major updates to this.
Liked: 39 Do they really need the full-sized booster for point-to-point travel? That thing is huge and operating it from a floating
Likes Given: 3 platform would be a major effort. Also I couldn't hope but notice the pad crane is the same one from IAC 2016 and still
not very realistic.
Suborbital point-to-point travel would make a lot more sense with a dedicated single stage-vehicle.
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BroncoBill Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #2 on: 09/29/2017 06:23 AM
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https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43849.0;all 1/33
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Likes Given: 0 Rockets bigger than Apollo launching, and landing at night, in the vicinity of major cities, makes Concorde's sonic boom
issue seem trivial .....
MikeAtkinson Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #3 on: 09/29/2017 06:27 AM
Posts: 1659 Quote from: BroncoBill on 09/29/2017 06:23 AM

Bracknell, England
Rockets bigger than Apollo launching, and landing at night, in the vicinity of major cities, makes Concorde's sonic boom issue seem trivial
.....
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Landing out at sea. Sonic boom footprint small and should be (mostly?) over water.
Tonioroffo Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #4 on: 09/29/2017 06:27 AM
Won't ITAR cause issues for this?

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tobi453 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #5 on: 09/29/2017 06:28 AM
Posts: 223 CO2 emissions anyone?
Liked: 59 Musk believes in global warming and now he is proposing something that will emit ~10 times more CO2 compared to a
Likes Given: 12 normal plane.
biosehnsucht Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #6 on: 09/29/2017 06:30 AM
Posts: 154 Elon mentioned using Sabatier + solar to manufacture CH4 and O2 from atmospheric CO2 and water.. So by then he'll
just be redistributing it (with some of it going off-planet).
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meekGee Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #7 on: 09/29/2017 06:31 AM
Posts: 7553 You don't know how close to the city it lands. I'd guess 20 miles off shore, at least - and no overflight.
N. California
An SSTO wouldn't be practical. Rockets stage for a reason, and this is practically a fully orbital launch.
Liked: 3876
Likes Given: 810 But the boosters remain in their home ports, and can launch ships more often.
IF the fuel load is $1M, this can work, both for people and for fast cargo.
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Reply #8 on: 09/29/2017 06:33 AM
Posts: 1659 Quote from: DreamyPickle on 09/29/2017 06:22 AM

Bracknell, England
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Do they really need the full-sized booster for point-to-point travel? That thing is huge and operating it from a floating platform would be
Likes Given: 50
a major effort. Also I couldn't hope but notice the pad crane is the same one from IAC 2016 and still not very realistic.
Almost certainly will have major updates, currently is not optimised for point to point, booster is too big, though I think
that single stage would not be efficient enough on the longer routes.
Floating platform is probably cheap compared to a major airport, the can reuse the same design, so unit cost reduced.
Problem is that they need one per destination, so creating a network can be expensive.
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Reply #9 on: 09/29/2017 06:35 AM
Posts: 1659 Quote from: tobi453 on 09/29/2017 06:28 AM

Bracknell, England
CO2 emissions anyone?
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Musk believes in global warming and now he is proposing something that will emit ~10 times more CO2 compared to a normal plane.
Likes Given: 50
Only about the same as a plane for the same route. Methane is much easier to reusably manufacture than aviation fuel,
so potentially could be C02 neutral.
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Jarnis Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #10 on: 09/29/2017 06:35 AM
Posts: 1050 Noise issues alone will probably make this a bad idea. Look at the mess of paperwork because of Seals at Vandenberg
with just a teeny F9 booster landing...
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Ben the Space Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #11 on: 09/29/2017 06:37 AM
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Quote from: DreamyPickle on 09/29/2017 06:22 AM
Do they really need the full-sized booster for point-to-point travel?
Posts: 6937 That depends on the launch payload. The payload fraction on the suborbital shuttle may be much higher than you could
expect on any orbital spacecraft. If you only carry contingency and landing prop on the shuttle, you're carrying far more
A spaceflight fan
revenue-generating passengers and cargo per flight.
London, UK
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Reply #12 on: 09/29/2017 07:01 AM
Posts: 223 Quote from: MikeAtkinson on 09/29/2017 06:35 AM
Quote from: tobi453 on 09/29/2017 06:28 AM

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Musk believes in global warming and now he is proposing something that will emit ~10 times more CO2 compared to a normal
plane.
Only about the same as a plane for the same route.
Big no. This system goes near orbital velocity. This takes a lot more energy than a simple plane. Just look at the mass:
500 tonnes for an aircraft compared to 5000 tonnes for this system.
Pipcard Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #13 on: 09/29/2017 07:06 AM
Quote from: Tonioroffo on 09/29/2017 06:27 AM
I was thinking of that when the destination shown in the video was China...
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Reply #14 on: 09/29/2017 07:11 AM

Bracknell, England
Quote from: MikeAtkinson on 09/29/2017 06:35 AM
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plane.
Big no. This system goes near orbital velocity. This takes a lot more energy than a simple plane. Just look at the mass: 500 tonnes for an
aircraft compared to 5000 tonnes for this system.
You forget that most of that mass is O2 and methane has lower carbon content than aviation fuel (particularly when full
account is taken of fuel manufacture), probably more passengers. the booster need not be fully fueled and there are a
few other optimisations that can be made for point-to-point.
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Patchouli Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #15 on: 09/29/2017 07:41 AM
BFR being used in this manner reminds me of a similar system proposed by Philip Bono during the 1960s.
http://www.astronautix.com/p/pegasusvtovl.html
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calapine Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #16 on: 09/29/2017 08:28 AM
It's the most minute of the details, but I think typical to the Musk approach:
The video says "Paris to New York 30 minutes"
Posts: 106 Where in (near) Paris would he launch a BFR-sized rocket? CNES must feel like idots shipping Ariane to Kourou all the
Linz, Austria years when they could just lift-off from Paris-Orly Terminal 1.
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darkenfast Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #17 on: 09/29/2017 08:45 AM
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While I don't think that there's that much of a market to justify multiple launch/landing sites, I do think that there is a
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tourist market for this. Think about it: why would you want to spend $100K plus to spend a few minutes on a BO or
Virgin Galactic vehicle, just breaking the Karman Line (or not, in the case of Virgin), when for a much smaller amount,
Liked: 357 you can spend between 30 to 60 minutes on a point to point flight to a tourist destination on the other side of the
Likes Given: 675 globe, and with an apogee hundreds of kilometers higher? If the interior space of the BFR can be reconfigured (as some
commercial aircraft can be today), then this is another use for the vehicles between synods.
I'm not sure about the city-to-city routine flights as shown on the video, but I think there is enough market for the
tourist aspect. Or heck, why not a 24-hour "Day-in-Space" flight?

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Reply #18 on: 09/29/2017 08:50 AM
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Quote from: calapine on 09/29/2017 08:28 AM
Posts: 6937 Where in (near) Paris would he launch a BFR-sized rocket? CNES must feel like idots shipping Ariane to Kourou all the years when they
A spaceflight fan could just lift-off from Paris-Orly Terminal 1.
London, UK
It can be a few tens of miles outside of Paris (like many modern large commercial airports). Once you remove the need
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site drops down precipitately. There is still a danger from anomalies but this is equally true for those living in the
farmland around CDG.
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Nibb31 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Posts: 201 I'm pretty sure that having suborbital hypersonic projectiles heading towards major cities is going to make some people
France nervous.
How far is far enough for the noise not to become an issue ? At the same time, you need to be close enough to a city for
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the transit time to make it worthwhile. Currently, you typically spend 3 hours to get to an airport, check in, go through
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TSA, customs, and board, and then 1 hour to collect your luggage and leave the airport on arrival. There is more to gain
by streamiling those processes than developing P2P suborbital. Putting the landing site a hundred kilometers from your
destination only increases the total transit time.
There is also quite some concern about manoeuverability. Once you're on a 30 minute parabolic trajectory, you are
pretty much committed to landing at your destination. You don't have much time to divert if there is an incident at the
destination, and you certainly don't have go around capability.
And doing P2P flights with the BFR design doesn't make much sense: you don't need the vacuum raptors or the header
tanks, so it really needs a different vehicle. And once you are designing a new vehicle, you might as well optimize the
pax capacity for the market, which probably means a smaller vehicle altogether.
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Reply #20 on: 09/29/2017 08:55 AM
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Quote from: Nibb31 on 09/29/2017 08:53 AM
And doing P2P flights with the BFR design doesn't make much sense: you don't need the vacuum raptors or the header tanks, so it really
needs a different vehicle. And once you are designing a new vehicle, you might as well optimize the pax capacity for the market, which
probably means a smaller vehicle altogether.
Posts: 6937
A spaceflight fan The high performance of the vacuum Raptor would provide high-efficiency in the transition to suborbital cruise (a long
London, UK burn will be needed after booster separation to get the horizontal velocity - a high-Isp engine would do nicely). Yes, the
interior of the Shuttle would be different from the ITS. I'd expect the tanks to be smaller and for there to be a larger
Liked: 526 cargo bay and passenger cabins.
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Darkseraph Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #21 on: 09/29/2017 09:03 AM
http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2015/01/why-were-not-going-to-see-sub-.html
It's almost obligatory that I should post the above link. Much of the problems described within apply to the scheme Musk
suggested today. In the era of North Korean nuclear weapons and ISIS, the federal government will be somewhat
Posts: 437 cautious about the idea of globe trotting reusable passenger ICBMs landing near cities. Although I wouldn't go as far as
to say this scheme will never happen, the proven reliability of any rocket vehicle is currently orders of magnitude worse
Liked: 162 than ordinary aviation.
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However, something like this would provide interesting global access options for exploration of the Moon and Mars. They
don't have aviation or automotive industries to compete with there yet.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman
KelvinZero Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #22 on: 09/29/2017 09:13 AM
Posts: 3406 How about a U-shaped underwater hyperloop.. Spit the upper stage out at 1000km/h
Liked: 434 Come to think of it, then you could board on land too.. Has Elon ever mentioned Hyperloop underwater?
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My happy place: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Solar_System_objects_by_size

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Reply #23 on: 09/29/2017 09:19 AM
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Quote from: KelvinZero on 09/29/2017 09:13 AM
How about a U-shaped underwater hyperloop.. Spit the upper stage out at 1000km/h
Posts: 6937 Search 'Terrahawks Hawkwing launch' on YouTube. Like so much else, Gerry Anderson was there 20-30 years before
Elon was!
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Star One SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in 25

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Reply #24 on: 09/29/2017 09:33 AM
Posts: 7847 We should be looking to further develop electric propulsion in air transport as NASA are hoping to do in the X Plane
UK program not wasting time on flights of fantasy like this.
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FinalFrontier Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #25 on: 09/29/2017 09:36 AM
Quote
What does everyone think?
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Space Watcher That it's utterly ridiculous and pointless. There are so many reasons why the point to point system will never, ever, work
economically speaking that it is almost not worth discussing. Covered some of these in my post in the main IAC speech
Liked: 247 thread.
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With that said, if the question is can you technically do this? The answer is yes. From a design and technical standpoint I
don't see very many or any problems of using a vehicle this size like this. You would probably not even need anywhere
near a full fuel load for the "ship" part, and there are no obvious technical reasons why it wouldn't work, it is essentially
the same technology F9 uses when it lands downrange on a drone-ship, scaled up and with higher delta-v in order to go
further "downrange" and get there somewhat faster. So in a technical sense there is no real reason it wouldn't work.
In an economic and risk sense, there is every single reason imaginable why it won't work. Not the least of which the
airlines, global shipping companies, and many others would use every single lobbying power in the book to stop it if it
ever got close to having a chance of entering operation.
3-30-2017: The start of a great future

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Reply #26 on: 09/29/2017 09:38 AM
Quote from: Star One on 09/29/2017 09:33 AM
We should be looking to further develop electric propulsion in air transport as NASA are hoping to do in the X Plane program not wasting
time on flights of fantasy like this.
Posts: 3816
Space Watcher Electric propulsion is also fantasy. What is going to power your electric jet? Batteries? What sort of batteries now exist
that have the energy density to weight ratio necessary and won't burst into flame? I could go on but it would be outside
Liked: 247 the scope of the thread.
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Equally fantastic. Actually more fantastic as at least the technological basis exists for point to point travel with a rocket,
where as constructing a functional electric large high speed aircraft is outside of existing technology at this time.

Star One Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #27 on: 09/29/2017 09:43 AM
Posts: 7847 Quote from: FinalFrontier on 09/29/2017 09:38 AM

UK
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We should be looking to further develop electric propulsion in air transport as NASA are hoping to do in the X Plane program not
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wasting time on flights of fantasy like this.
Electric propulsion is also fantasy. What is going to power your electric jet? Batteries? What sort of batteries now exist that have the
energy density to weight ratio necessary and won't burst into flame? I could go on but it would be outside the scope of the thread.
Equally fantastic. Actually more fantastic as at least the technological basis exists for point to point travel with a rocket, where as
constructing a functional electric large high speed aircraft is outside of existing technology at this time.
Guess youve never heard of solid state batteries, or look up NASAs developments in electric propulsion before making
pronouncements on things.
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/what-is-solid-state-battery-toyota-dyson

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Reply #28 on: 09/29/2017 09:48 AM
Quote from: FinalFrontier on 09/29/2017 09:38 AM
Posts: 3816 Quote from: Star One on 09/29/2017 09:33 AM
Space Watcher
We should be looking to further develop electric propulsion in air transport as NASA are hoping to do in the X Plane program
not wasting time on flights of fantasy like this.
Liked: 247
Likes Given: 125 Electric propulsion is also fantasy. What is going to power your electric jet? Batteries? What sort of batteries now exist that have
the energy density to weight ratio necessary and won't burst into flame? I could go on but it would be outside the scope of the
thread.
Equally fantastic. Actually more fantastic as at least the technological basis exists for point to point travel with a rocket, where as
constructing a functional electric large high speed aircraft is outside of existing technology at this time.
Guess youve never heard of solid state batteries, or look up NASAs developments in electric propulsion before making pronouncements
on things.
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/what-is-solid-state-battery-toyota-dyson
Ask Boeing how well it went putting large numbers of untested battery technology on an aircraft the first time around.
Also check the article. You are talking about a battery designed for vehicles operating at highway speeds on the ground.
You are not talking about a battery which has to power a jet or turbofan engine on an aircraft moving at high velocities
under high stress at high altitude. And the article you cited even states the technology is untested and still being
developed and cites the earliest use of it being sometime in 2020.
You are orders of magnitude into the fantastic making the leap of this from what it is right now to a large aircraft
particularly one which caries people. Drones are a different story.
I will believe this when I see it.

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Reply #29 on: 09/29/2017 09:55 AM
Posts: 3406 I think I am just more cynical and untrusting than everybody else. Elon Musk is a show man. I think the airplane thing is
misdirection.. even if entirely true.
Liked: 434
Likes Given: 106 It is not what is important. Whether it is justifiable or not, it obviously could only come about long after ITSy was a
mundane tool for space, which accepts much higher risks and can begin with only a single launch pad. The battle for
ITSy would be won so this is automatically in the idle speculation category, IMO.
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Reply #30 on: 09/29/2017 10:00 AM
I think I am just more cynical and untrusting than everybody else. Elon Musk is a show man. I think the airplane thing is misdirection..
even if entirely true.
Posts: 3816
Space Watcher It is not what is important. Whether it is justifiable or not, it obviously could only come about long after ITSy was a mundane tool for
space, which accepts much higher risks and can begin with only a single launch pad. The battle for ITSy would be won so this is
automatically in the idle speculation category, IMO.
Liked: 247
Likes Given: 125 Obviously you aren't the only cynic then I am thinking the exact same thing right now. The point to point thing made me
question the logic of the entire proposal. He would have done well to leave that out of it.

woods170 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #31 on: 09/29/2017 10:01 AM
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Quote from: Pipcard on 09/29/2017 07:06 AM
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I was thinking of that when the destination shown in the video was China...
IRAS fan
The Netherlands Don't assume ITAR is restricted to just rockets. Aircraft manufactured in the USA are equipped with multiple ITAR-ed
items. They fly to China (and back) on a regular bases (airlines). It's not as if SpaceX is going to export BFR to China.
Liked: 2701 BFR will fly there, and then back again. Similar to airlines, however mostly above the atmosphere in stead of in it.
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jpo234 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #32 on: 09/29/2017 10:03 AM
Posts: 509 Quote from: woods170 on 09/29/2017 10:01 AM
It's not as if SpaceX is going to export BFR to China. BFR will fly there, and then back again. Similar to airlines, however mostly above
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the atmosphere in stead of in it.
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What about the booster? It doesn't fly around the world like the ship. It stays at the launch site.
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a
spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of
anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

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Reply #33 on: 09/29/2017 10:12 AM
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It is not what is important. Whether it is justifiable or not, it obviously could only come about long after ITSy was a mundane tool for
space, which accepts much higher risks and can begin with only a single launch pad. The battle for ITSy would be won so this is
Posts: 6937
A spaceflight fan Actually, I'm seeing an echo of the Dragon v.1 to Dragon v.2 step strategy here: The ITS hull plan and BFR booster are
London, UK proven in ETO and lunar access then later in suborbital P2P and Mars access. The point is that, the more the vehicle is
used for more and more people and more and more applications, the more people will have confidence in the system.
Liked: 526
Likes Given: 597 For example, I suspect that the first P2P suborbital application will be ultra-fast cargo and document delivery. FedEx and
UPS might be very interested in offering a service that reduces urgent document and parcel delivery times from 6-12
hours to about 1-3 hours (factoring in customs & border checks). Yes, it would be expensive but there could be cargoes
and package delivery tasks for which some customers would be willing to consider that expenditure.
On another subject: Looking at the spacecraft configuration, could one reasonable abort scenario be a horizontal water
landing then pumping sea water into the prop tanks to bring the vehicle up into a horizontal configuration with the
egress hatches close to the water-line for easy transfer over to rescue boats?
Quote from: jpo234 on 09/29/2017 10:03 AM
What about the booster? It doesn't fly around the world like the ship. It stays at the launch site.
That depends on exactly how the launch site is handled. If it's an offshore platform (outside the national waters limit),
then it could be handled under the same laws as oil rigs with the flag country (the USA in this case) being responsible
for safety and crewing. Then it would simply be a matter of ensuring that any locally-sourced crews pass a security
clearance.
[EDIT]
So, putting my fanboy rose-tinted specs for a moment, let's go racing down 'What if...?' Boulevard.
Musk is quoting 150t IMLEO. Assuming a 50/50 split between dry cargo and passengers, that would be basically two SLS
launches, one with a 70t cargo hauler and one with a 50-seat passenger shuttle in a single launch. IFR as a starting
design feature means that you don't need a space station to rendezvous with and transfer payload over to the orbit-to-
orbit interplanetary transfer vehicle that is being serviced and resupplied there.
Here's something that occurs to me: According to that artwork, the LEO/Lunar version of ITS will have lateral payload
doors. Fit it with a RMS and could it be used to build a space-station? Just consider that: Two or three flights per day
from LC-39A and Boca Chica, Structural assembly could be done in weeks and the long pole will become the systems
check-out and commissioning process.
To summarise: In concert with lower-cost inflatable pressurised modules, ITS could make it possible to build space
stations larger than the ISS at a rate of several per year. It's a paradigm shifter that would necessarily change LEO
exploitation beyond recognition.
I can't help but see the ghosts of Tsilkovsky, Von Braun and Korolev standing next to Elon as he delivers these
presentations. Flights of fantasy? I'm not enough of an expert to tell but they're the sort of dreams that, IMO at least,
an increasingly insular and cynical world needs.
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Cheapchips Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #34 on: 09/29/2017 10:34 AM
Posts: 6
I think short term cynicism is entirely justified. Long term though, if you can overcome legislative and vested interest
Liked: 2 issues it gives you something to do with a spaceship stockpile between Mars Transit windows.
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SpaceX were ramping up to 46 F9 cores per year. Assume that they can make a minimum or 10 BFR or Spaceships a
year when they switch production fully. If you're targeting P2P travel for later in the 2020's that's a healthy starter
fleet.
Also, having these things chucking themselves daily between cities will normalise spaceflight on a Moon or Mars cruise.
Customers already rough idea what it's like.
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Reply #35 on: 09/29/2017 11:00 AM
Quote from: FinalFrontier on 09/29/2017 10:00 AM

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I think I am just more cynical and untrusting than everybody else. Elon Musk is a show man. I think the airplane thing is
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misdirection.. even if entirely true.
It is not what is important. Whether it is justifiable or not, it obviously could only come about long after ITSy was a mundane tool
for space, which accepts much higher risks and can begin with only a single launch pad. The battle for ITSy would be won so this is
Obviously you aren't the only cynic then I am thinking the exact same thing right now. The point to point thing made me question the
logic of the entire proposal. He would have done well to leave that out of it.
This is something I admit to knowing nothing about. Is he actually harmed by loss of confidence by his fans at this
point? Scares can cause a temporary dip in shares in whichever of his companies actually have shares. Im not sure if
that is harm or opportunity though.. though I suspect there are laws against that sort of opportunity.
The Point to point thing will probably make a lot more publicity in the general media, and grab the attention of a public
who do not care about mars one bit. This tale, fictional or not, makes ITS apply to them. There is a saying that all
publicity is good publicity. This is a promise he does not need to make good on till after he has already won.
Last Edit: 09/29/2017 11:02 AM by KelvinZero Report to moderator Logged

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Reply #36 on: 09/29/2017 12:12 PM
Posts: 223 Quote from: Ben the Space Brit on 09/29/2017 08:50 AM
Liked: 59 Quote from: calapine on 09/29/2017 08:28 AM

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Where in (near) Paris would he launch a BFR-sized rocket? CNES must feel like idots shipping Ariane to Kourou all the years when
they could just lift-off from Paris-Orly Terminal 1.
It can be a few tens of miles outside of Paris (like many modern large commercial airports). Once you remove the need for a safe
location to dispose of spent booster stages, the space requirements and debris hazard from a rocket launch site drops down precipitately.
There is still a danger from anomalies but this is equally true for those living in the farmland around CDG.
No it requires an evacuated area with a radius of many kms because of noise alone. Then there is the risk of 5000
tonnes of propellant crashing down. A launch over inhabitated areas is not going to happen for many many years in
Europe. BFR can land in atlantic ocean near the coast of France or England but not in the European cities.
Also coast to coast in the US is possible but only if you go around the Earth once.
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sghill Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #37 on: 09/29/2017 12:13 PM
I think there is more of an economic case to be made for landing cargo and people in ultra-remote places than there is
for flying millionaires from one spot to another in less time than it takes to deliver a pizza.
Posts: 1289 A South Pole operation will cut the time and expense of maintaining that base, while also creating an excellent corollary
United States for Martian and lunar operations.
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Bring the thunder Elon!
ZachS09 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #38 on: 09/29/2017 12:22 PM
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Just watched the video; amazing concept in addition to regular jet airliners.
I'm guessing that SpaceX is using a smaller version of the ITS booster for ferries to and from certain cities while they
are using the full-sized version for trips to Mars and back.
Posts: 4793
Space Historian "Liftoff of Falcon 9: the world's first reflight of an orbital-class rocket."
Sullivan's Island, SC
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Reply #39 on: 09/29/2017 12:26 PM
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Quote from: ZachS09 on 09/29/2017 12:22 PM
I'm guessing that SpaceX is using a smaller version of the ITS booster for ferries to and from certain cities while they are using the full-
sized version for trips to Mars and back.
Posts: 6937
Thanks to in-flight refuelling, not necessarily. All the BFR and ITS needs to do off of the launch pad is get the ITS
A spaceflight fan
spacecraft into a stable orbit or into the appropriate ballistic trajectory with sufficient reserve for braking and landing. I
London, UK
wouldn't be surprised if the initial fuel load for both flight plans is similar.
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garcianc Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #40 on: 09/29/2017 12:26 PM
Posts: 22
washington, dc
I was watching the live stream and when I saw the video simulation for this part start, I thought "please don't say what
you are about to say".
Liked: 24 Now that he said it, it is becoming the distraction I thought it would.
Likes Given: 4
Imagine shutting down New York and Hong Kong harbor, all air and sea traffic almost simultaneously (!!), while about 80
to 100 members of the 1% fly in their fancy rocket.
Oh, but wait, some of you say, the barge will be 20+ miles out in the ocean - it will be awesome. I am not sure how
many here have traveled 20 miles by sea, but it is not quick. Then the people and the cargo would need to be
transferred. I have done about a 10 mile barge transfer while anchored out in Hong Kong and that took about a 45
minute transit every time.
Beer bet. This will never happen.

ThereIWas3 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #41 on: 09/29/2017 12:36 PM
Posts: 603 I can not imagine a market case for this. We have instant communication around the world, face-to-face, even form our
homes and telephones. The need to actually be somewhere that quickly is very small, unless you need to go beat
Liked: 251 somebody up with your fists (i.e., military). Just loading the fuel will take longer than the flight.
Likes Given: 211
"If you want to build a ship, dont drum up people to collect wood and dont assign them tasks and work, but rather teach them to long for the
endless immensity of the sea" - Antoine de Saint-Exupry
JamesH65 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #42 on: 09/29/2017 12:39 PM
Posts: 589 I always snigger inside when I see the word 'never' banded about. Never means never, not in 10 years, not in 100 years,
not in 1M years.
Liked: 342
Likes Given: 8 Lord Kelvin, a very clever man for his time, stated "Heavier than air flying machines are impossible"
Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943 "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th Century Fox, 1946 "Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after
the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."
Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977 "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their
home."
Every single one of those guys cleverer and more successful than the people on this board.
Electric aeroplanes. Still under development, but they already exist, and will only get better, just like electric cars which
people have been saying for years would never catch on...
So, don't use the word never, unless you have a time machine and can check....
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eric z Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #43 on: 09/29/2017 12:41 PM
Posts: 204 A smaller variant could play a neat role in a future Jame Bond movie... Indeed probably more military-emergency
applications then moving people around for profit, but who knows what the future holds.
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JamesH65 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #44 on: 09/29/2017 12:47 PM
Posts: 589 Quote from: ThereIWas3 on 09/29/2017 12:36 PM
Liked: 342
Likes Given: 8 I can not imagine a market case for this. We have instant communication around the world, face-to-face, even form our homes and
telephones. The need to actually be somewhere that quickly is very small, unless you need to go beat somebody up with your fists (i.e.,
military). Just loading the fuel will take longer than the flight.
Despite the preponderance of video conferencing and instant comms, people still want to move around the world. Which
actually is a shame, but if you want to visit some mates in Australia there are two hurdles, the cost, and the time taken
to get there (24hr from here). IFF Musk/someone can make a ballistic flight cheap enough, and get round regulatory
hurdles (and all hurdles can be negotiated, it usually just takes time and someone who want to make some money).
Some figures were bandied about earlier, 800 people per flight, cost of flight $1M (assuming half full tanks?). $1M/800 =
$1250 per passenger. Current cheapest airline costs for UK to Oz is $800 (cattle class, most unpleasant for 24hrs). That
is not a huge difference. Would it be worth it to save a day? For a lot of people, yes.
So, it all comes down to cost. Only time will tell whether money can be made.
TBH, I'd pay 4 times the headline figure of $1250 just to fly in space, never mind where I ended up.
So, never going to happen? Hmmm.

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Reply #45 on: 09/29/2017 12:48 PM
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Quote from: garcianc on 09/29/2017 12:26 PM
I was watching the live stream and when I saw the video simulation for this part start, I thought "please don't say what you are about to
say".
Now that he said it, it is becoming the distraction I thought it would.
Posts: 7115 Imagine shutting down New York and Hong Kong harbor, all air and sea traffic almost simultaneously (!!), while about 80 to 100
IRAS fan members of the 1% fly in their fancy rocket.
The Netherlands
Oh, but wait, some of you say, the barge will be 20+ miles out in the ocean - it will be awesome. I am not sure how many here have
traveled 20 miles by sea, but it is not quick. Then the people and the cargo would need to be transferred. I have done about a 10 mile
Liked: 2701 barge transfer while anchored out in Hong Kong and that took about a 45 minute transit every time.
Likes Given: 802
Beer bet. This will never happen.
Not taking the bet. Just pointing out the following:

I've done 45 mile ocean-to-shore transits in 1 hour on a fast ferry. Nothing special. Those kind of ocean-going ferries
have been around since the 1970's.
Suppose the platform is located 20 miles off-shore. A fast ferry will take the passengers there in under 40 minutes.

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Reply #46 on: 09/29/2017 01:10 PM
Posts: 223 Quote from: woods170 on 09/29/2017 12:48 PM
A fast ferry will take the passengers there in under 40 minutes.

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And you can do security checks and passport control on the ferry.
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Reply #47 on: 09/29/2017 01:16 PM
Posts: 72
Home
A whole bunch of ITAR, noise and overflight concerns can be worked around by starting with flights across the Pacific
and floating the launch pads outside territorial waters. If quick flights from San Francisco to Tokyo or LA to Sidney are
Liked: 39 proved to work the system can be extended to other regions.
Likes Given: 3
It still looks too expensive to be practical.
I wonder how much they really looked into floating launch pads. If you have two of them you can place them on the
equator and ignore RTLS in favor of always landing on a barge to the East, refueling and sending the booster back. And
it just so happens that handling vast quantities of liquid methane at sea is a problem that other companies have already
poured billions of dollars into.
Last Edit: 09/29/2017 01:24 PM by DreamyPickle Report to moderator Logged

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Reply #48 on: 09/29/2017 01:22 PM
Posts: 201 Floating pads outside territorial waters requires transfer by boat, which pretty much negates the whole point of fast
France
transport. It also rules out cities that don't have access to the sea, which includes most European capitals.
Liked: 112
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Norm38 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #49 on: 09/29/2017 01:27 PM
Posts: 954 Quote from: FinalFrontier on 09/29/2017 09:36 AM
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In an economic and risk sense, there is every single reason imaginable why it won't work. Not the least of which the airlines, global
shipping companies, and many others would use every single lobbying power in the book to stop it if it ever got close to having a chance
of entering operation.
Isn't that contradictory? If this is horribly uneconomical and has zero chance of happening, why would anyone spend a
dime buying politicians to stop it? They would just sit back and watch SpaceX bankrupt itself.

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Reply #50 on: 09/29/2017 01:29 PM
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Quote from: DreamyPickle on 09/29/2017 01:16 PM
It still looks too expensive to be practical.
Posts: 6937 You're forgetting Musk's goal of making space launchers as reusable and easy to turn around as commercial airliners.
Simply put, all the vehicles will require is refuelling at the end of every flight and maybe a 1,000-hour service of flight
A spaceflight fan
controls, ECLSS and the propulsion system. One spacecraft capable of doing a thousand cycles before the end of hull life
London, UK
and at least a hundred cycles before the end of engine life would knock several orders of magnitude off of the running
cost.
Liked: 526
Likes Given: 597 What about the set-up costs? Ah, that's another matter entirely. Yes, building the spacecraft, building the infrastructure
and navigating the legal issues will be at least as expensive as it has been to construct the modern air transport
infrastructure. However, that will be almost entirely a one-off cost.
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Reply #51 on: 09/29/2017 01:36 PM
Posts: 72
Home
Quote from: Nibb31 on 09/29/2017 01:22 PM
Liked: 39 Floating pads outside territorial waters requires transfer by boat, which pretty much negates the whole point of fast transport. It also
Likes Given: 3 rules out cities that don't have access to the sea, which includes most European capitals.
A quick search find that fast ferries can do >60 km/h and territorial waters extend 22 km out. So it would add 20-30
minutes at both ends of the trip. The ferry could also be used for all the various checkin procedures. If a one-way trip
length is 1-2 hours you can even return the same day.
And for rich VIPs in a hurry you can use a helicopter.

Last Edit: 09/29/2017 01:41 PM by DreamyPickle Report to moderator Logged
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RonM Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #52 on: 09/29/2017 02:16 PM
P2P on a suborbital shuttle would be great for crossing the Atlantic and Pacific. It might take 45 minutes to ride the ferry
to the barge each way, but who cares if the travel time across the ocean is cut to 30 minutes. Los Angeles to Singapore
is currently a 20 hour flight (with one stop in Tokyo).
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Reply #53 on: 09/29/2017 02:21 PM
Posts: 223 China is not going to allow the US to land an ICBM that close to Shanghai.
Liked: 59 IMHO flights between Australia, US, Japan, Canada and Europe are possible from a political point of view. Maybe also
Likes Given: 12 South America, but anything close to Russia or China is a no go.
Cherokee43v6 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #54 on: 09/29/2017 02:24 PM
Posts: 568 So long as the pilot doesn't look like Lee Majors...
Garner, NC
"Starflight: The Plane That Couldn't Land"

Liked: 141 http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086357/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_93
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"I didn't open the can of worms...

...I just pointed at it and laughed a little too loudly."
speedevil Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #55 on: 09/29/2017 02:27 PM
Posts: 275 Quote from: DreamyPickle on 09/29/2017 01:36 PM

Fife
Liked: 130
Floating pads outside territorial waters requires transfer by boat, which pretty much negates the whole point of fast transport. It
Likes Given: 109
also rules out cities that don't have access to the sea, which includes most European capitals.
A quick search find that fast ferries can do >60 km/h and territorial waters extend 22 km out. So it would add 20-30 minutes at both
ends of the trip. The ferry could also be used for all the various checkin procedures. If a one-way trip length is 1-2 hours you can even
return the same day.
And for rich VIPs in a hurry you can use a helicopter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SR.N4 - hovercraft service across the english channel was run at 40-60 knots (75-
110km/h) between 1968 and 2000.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N500_Naviplane - though unsuccessful in commercial service did a 75 knot run across the
channel.
hektor Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #56 on: 09/29/2017 02:32 PM
Posts: 1253 Quote from: Nibb31 on 09/29/2017 01:22 PM
Floating pads outside territorial waters requires transfer by boat, which pretty much negates the whole point of fast transport. It also
Liked: 18
rules out cities that don't have access to the sea, which includes most European capitals.
Likes Given: 2
Maybe an hyperloop submerged tunnel ?

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Andrea_It Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #57 on: 09/29/2017 02:47 PM
Posts: 2
Turin, Italy
I think this is better interpreted, at least in the short term, as a sales pitch for space tourism. Paying a few thousand
dollars to save some hours on plane, it has a quite limited customer base. And if you don't fill the rockets prices go even
Liked: 5 higher.
Likes Given: 0 A few thousand dollars to go to space however?
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envy887 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #58 on: 09/29/2017 03:13 PM
Posts: 2401 Quote from: Andrea_It on 09/29/2017 02:47 PM
I think this is better interpreted, at least in the short term, as a sales pitch for space tourism. Paying a few thousand dollars to save
Liked: 1056
some hours on plane, it has a quite limited customer base. And if you don't fill the rockets prices go even higher.
Likes Given: 690
A few thousand dollars to go to space however?
I think the customer base of people who would pay, for example, $10k for a 1 hour flight vs $5k for a 15 hour flight is
fairly large. A lot of people consider their time to be worth $500/hour.
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Coastal Ron Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #59 on: 09/29/2017 04:25 PM

I live... along the coast
I can not imagine a market case for this.
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There was a business case for the Concorde, it's just that the equipment costs got out of hand due to using 1st
generation vehicles.
Also, the most obvious one would be for military use. Once you're secured an area and brought in refueling equipment,
now suddenly you can move very large amounts of cargo into an area very quickly. Likely not tanks and such, but
people and supplies can be timely. Not sure how Musk would feel about that use case, but it's got to be on the minds of
many military people.
Quote
Just loading the fuel will take longer than the flight.
Ever fly between the islands of Hawaii and Maui? It's only 35 minutes on a twinjet. And those aircraft fly the same route
multiple times per day.
Hawaii is also an interesting use case to examine, since water ferry service has never been able to keep a foothold
there, so everyone pretty much flies between islands. Maybe it's politics, but people seem to be OK with the speed of
travel. That could be a strong motivator for rocket transportation here on Earth.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?
su27k Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #60 on: 09/29/2017 04:39 PM
Posts: 615 Quote from: Coastal Ron on 09/29/2017 04:25 PM
Also, the most obvious one would be for military use. Once you're secured an area and brought in refueling equipment, now suddenly
Liked: 369
you can move very large amounts of cargo into an area very quickly. Likely not tanks and such, but people and supplies can be timely.
Likes Given: 36
Not sure how Musk would feel about that use case, but it's got to be on the minds of many military people.
The problem is how to get the ship back without the booster.
LooksFlyable Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #61 on: 09/29/2017 04:40 PM
Posts: 25
USA
These presentations are not just for public consumption, but government agencies are paying attention as well. Point to
point travel in less than an hour for a significant number of people or cargo would be of interest to the military and other
Liked: 4 government agencies as well. Whether it's personnel, delivering military cargo, or equipment for emergency rescue
Likes Given: 7 missions after natural disasters, being able to carry that much stuff from one point on the planet to another is valuable
and needed in the 21st century.
John Alan Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #62 on: 09/29/2017 05:08 PM
Posts: 421 My opinion...

Central IL - USA - Earth
Elon threw this usage idea in his presentation to generate "buzz" in the news...
Liked: 196 From the looks of Google/ News/ Science webpage... It worked...
Likes Given: 1042
Headlines galore... "30 mins X to Y" everywhere...
Just my opinion... Real life... limited and maybe 15 years out for point to point travel like shown...
Reality would be a space station "airport" with fights to and from it as a Hub... my opinion...
Last Edit: 09/29/2017 05:11 PM by John Alan Report to moderator Logged
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Coastal Ron Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #63 on: 09/29/2017 05:14 PM
Posts: 3267 Quote from: su27k on 09/29/2017 04:39 PM

I live... along the coast
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 09/29/2017 04:25 PM
Liked: 2088
Also, the most obvious one would be for military use. Once you're secured an area and brought in refueling equipment, now
Likes Given: 2499
suddenly you can move very large amounts of cargo into an area very quickly. Likely not tanks and such, but people and supplies
can be timely. Not sure how Musk would feel about that use case, but it's got to be on the minds of many military people.
You land a booster there ahead of time as part of setting up the system. I'm sure they have come up with a way to
refuel a BFR in space so it can relocated around the world.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

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Reply #64 on: 09/29/2017 05:31 PM
Posts: 2401 Quote from: su27k on 09/29/2017 04:39 PM
Liked: 1056 Quote from: Coastal Ron on 09/29/2017 04:25 PM
Likes Given: 690

Also, the most obvious one would be for military use. Once you're secured an area and brought in refueling equipment, now
suddenly you can move very large amounts of cargo into an area very quickly. Likely not tanks and such, but people and supplies
can be timely. Not sure how Musk would feel about that use case, but it's got to be on the minds of many military people.
The empty ship can probably make an significant suborbital hop on it's own, especially if the ER on those vac nozzles is
really ~120:1.
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Earendil Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #65 on: 09/29/2017 06:40 PM
Posts: 90
Bulgaria
On the point of sea/ship transfer to launch/landing pad.. 30 min on a hydrofoil.. so what, you are forgetting how much it
takes to get to most airports.. You still save the whole travel time difference..
Liked: 37 On the environmental impact point - we all know methane burns much cleaner than jet fuel.. also, a lot of the fuel will
Likes Given: 35 be burned above the karman line (by the ship).. so actually might be a lot cleaner than 14 hour jet flight.. and if you
add sabatier fuel production on land..
Economics.. time will tell... would not jump so fast to say "no"... Many clever men said reusable boosters will never
happen or be economically feasible..
Star One SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in 25

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Reply #66 on: 09/29/2017 07:50 PM
Posts: 7847 Elon Musks idea for commercial rocket travel on Earth would be a logistical nightmare
UK
Quote
Liked: 1256
Likes Given: 168 You cant fly humans on that same kind of orbit, Brian Weeden, director of program planning for Secure World Foundation, told The
Verge. For one, the acceleration and the G-forces for both the launch and the reentry would kill people. I dont have it right in front of
me, but its a lot more than the G-forces on an astronaut we see today going up into space and coming back down, and thats not
inconsiderable.
Another problem with ballistic trajectory is radiation exposure in the vacuum of space, Weeden added. To be sure, astronauts on the
International Space Station are largely shielded from this radiation, thanks to Earths magnetic field, which deflects most of the deep-
space particles. But his indifference toward the impact that these interstellar concepts would have on human bodies is classic Musk.
Quote
One of the most striking conclusions to come out of the DOT paper is the effects this type of futuristic travel could have on pilots. The
pilot will have to deal with activities ranging from direct control of the vehicle to oversight and situational awareness to planning, the
papers author, Ruth A. MacFarlane Hunter, a national expert on logistics and emergency management and a registered professional
aeronautical engineer, wrote. The much larger array of instruments and situations may require the pilot to quickly shift to a different
activity using different instruments.
https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/29/16385026/elon-musk-spacex-rocket-transportation-point-to-point
Last Edit: 09/29/2017 07:51 PM by Star One Report to moderator Logged

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Reply #67 on: 09/29/2017 08:09 PM
Posts: 2401 Quote from: Star One on 09/29/2017 07:50 PM
Elon Musks idea for commercial rocket travel on Earth would be a logistical nightmare
Liked: 1056
Likes Given: 690
Quote
You cant fly humans on that same kind of orbit, Brian Weeden, director of program planning for Secure World Foundation, told
The Verge. For one, the acceleration and the G-forces for both the launch and the reentry would kill people. I dont have it right in
front of me, but its a lot more than the G-forces on an astronaut we see today going up into space and coming back down, and
thats not inconsiderable.
Another problem with ballistic trajectory is radiation exposure in the vacuum of space, Weeden added. To be sure, astronauts on
the International Space Station are largely shielded from this radiation, thanks to Earths magnetic field, which deflects most of the
deep-space particles. But his indifference toward the impact that these interstellar concepts would have on human bodies is classic
Musk.
Quote
One of the most striking conclusions to come out of the DOT paper is the effects this type of futuristic travel could have on pilots.
The pilot will have to deal with activities ranging from direct control of the vehicle to oversight and situational awareness to
planning, the papers author, Ruth A. MacFarlane Hunter, a national expert on logistics and emergency management and a
registered professional aeronautical engineer, wrote. The much larger array of instruments and situations may require the pilot to
quickly shift to a different activity using different instruments.
Why would an orbital system fly a suborbital ballistic trajectory? It does not need an apogee over 300 km to go
anywhere on Earth. Radiation at that altitude is less than on ISS. And the gees at launch and entry can be limited to 3G
or less.
Nor does it need a pilot. Dragon 2 doesn't have a pilot, Falcon 9 doesn't have a pilot. Buran didn't have a pilot. Shuttle
didn't need a pilot and only landed with one because the astronauts didn't want to feel superfluous.
That entire article misunderstands the system.
Edit: the quote about pilots is from a FAA paper on HTHL systems:
https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/media/point_to_point.pdf
No pilot is going to do a VTVL hoverslam manually, there is no possible way or reason to do so.
Last Edit: 09/29/2017 08:14 PM by envy887 Report to moderator Logged
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biosehnsucht Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #68 on: 09/29/2017 08:35 PM
Posts: 154 Quote from: tobi453 on 09/29/2017 12:12 PM
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I wonder which is faster, once around nearly full orbit, or doing something like a "boost back burn" where you kick up
into a high arc and let the Earth rotate under you. Could they launch over water, then sufficiently reverse velocity with
such a high arc such that any debris field would land in the Pacific, then do a correction near the end to land along/off
the west coast?
Assuming such a maneuver is feasible, would it be any faster, or is rushing around the planet quick than letting it rotate
beneath you / converting a somewhat prograde orbit into a slightly retrograde one ?

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Reply #69 on: 09/29/2017 08:38 PM
Posts: 2401 Quote from: biosehnsucht on 09/29/2017 08:35 PM
Quote from: tobi453 on 09/29/2017 12:12 PM

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I wonder which is faster, once around nearly full orbit, or doing something like a "boost back burn" where you kick up into a high arc and
let the Earth rotate under you. Could they launch over water, then sufficiently reverse velocity with such a high arc such that any debris
field would land in the Pacific, then do a correction near the end to land along/off the west coast?
Assuming such a maneuver is feasible, would it be any faster, or is rushing around the planet quick than letting it rotate beneath you /
converting a somewhat prograde orbit into a slightly retrograde one ?
If you wait for the Earth to rotate, it's not going to be a faster trip than a airliner. Overflight won't be an issue if
reliability is remotely near comparable to an airliner.
mme Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #70 on: 09/29/2017 10:30 PM
Quote from: Star One on 09/29/2017 07:50 PM
Posts: 997 Quote

Santa Barbara, CA, USA,
Earth, Solar System, Milky You cant fly humans on that same kind of orbit, Brian Weeden, director of program planning for Secure World Foundation, told
The Verge. For one, the acceleration and the G-forces for both the launch and the reentry would kill people. ....
Way Galaxy, Virgo
Supercluster
Quote
Liked: 1219
Likes Given: 3002 One of the most striking conclusions to come out of the DOT paper is the effects this type of futuristic travel could have on pilots. ...
I don't know if you were quoting this article to support an argument or to point out how clueless some people are.
Why would the G forces be worse than any other HSF launch? What pilot?
There are all sorts of stumbling blocks to ICBT (inter continental ballistic travel) is unlikely but G-Forces, radiation and
pilots are not any of them.
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Space is not Highlander. There can, and will, be more than one.
Star One Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #71 on: 09/29/2017 10:41 PM
Posts: 7847 Quote from: mme on 09/29/2017 10:30 PM

UK
Quote from: Star One on 09/29/2017 07:50 PM
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Quote
You cant fly humans on that same kind of orbit, Brian Weeden, director of program planning for Secure World Foundation,
told The Verge. For one, the acceleration and the G-forces for both the launch and the reentry would kill people. ....
Quote
One of the most striking conclusions to come out of the DOT paper is the effects this type of futuristic travel could have on
pilots. ...
I don't know if you were quoting this article to support an argument or to point out how clueless some people are.
Why would the G forces be worse than any other HSF launch? What pilot?
There are all sorts of stumbling blocks to ICBT (inter continental ballistic travel) is unlikely but G-Forces, radiation and pilots are not any
of them.
Just thought it was an odd article and if people could make any sense of it.
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Dalhousie Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #72 on: 09/29/2017 10:47 PM
Posts: 2054 Time to dig out all the work by Phillip Bono from the 60s
Liked: 250 http://www.astronautix.com/i/ithacus.html

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http://www.astronautix.com/p/pegasusvtovl.html
"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most
successful exploration will be done by humans" Steve Squyres
Ludus Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #73 on: 09/29/2017 11:05 PM
Posts: 759 Its also worth keeping in mind that this system with a big ASDS spaceport floating off of major coastal cities wouldnt
just work for point to point express. Its also a real Spaceport where exactly the same Rockets can take passengers and
Liked: 270 cargo to an orbiting space station or the Moon or even Mars.
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The point to point express function adds another market but its still a general purpose Spaceport.
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mme Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #74 on: 09/29/2017 11:09 PM
I think it's interesting how angry some people are at Musk suggesting this. Musk always starts from "is it possible" from
a back of the envelope calculation. Does physics allow it, can it possibly be cost effective.
I think it's possible that the answer is yes and yes. Sure (perfectly reasonable) regulations may prevent it or the actual
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cost may be too high or the market may not exist. But this isn't the business model that pays for BFR. This is the
Santa Barbara, CA, USA,
"maybe another source of revenue after BFR exists." And it's cool.
Earth, Solar System, Milky
Way Galaxy, Virgo
Supercluster
I presupposes a whole bunch of stuff going right, not the least of which are:
1. The BFR existing.

Liked: 1219 2. The BFR being really inexpensive to operate.
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3. The BFR being super reliable and safe.
4. The BFR being fully reusable 1000s of times.
The above are required for serious Mars colonization (maybe 100s of reuses works for Mars). Until all the above happen,
this is a fun conversation when rubbing elbows with politicians and billionaires and maybe an occasional research project
for an intern.
I doubt this will happen but it doesn't strike me as impossible. It's like the flying car, personal jet pack and hyper sonic
airliner of virtually every issue of Popular Mechanics when I was growing up.
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Space is not Highlander. There can, and will, be more than one.

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Reply #75 on: 09/29/2017 11:21 PM
Posts: 759 https://yellowedandcreased.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/the-lights-in-the-sky-are-stars-frederic-brown/
Liked: 270 Just a mention for a fairly obscure Frederic Brown short novel. Among other things it assumes as a background
Likes Given: 130 situation that around the beginning of the 21st century there is a very developed global jet airline market but also
rockets very much like the SpaceX scenario that are both point to point in under an hour and used to service orbital
stations and the moon.
I have the impression without any specific references that this was a pretty common scenario in the late 1940s early
1950s. It seems to fit with gas and go reusable rockets that landed on their own thrust, reusable moon rockets that
returned complete to earth and other aspects of the recent presentation. Like a lot of Elons ideas this isnt new but
rather very retro, looking at old SF ideas that made sense in a first principles analysis many decades ago.
oiorionsbelt Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #76 on: 09/29/2017 11:54 PM
Posts: 1174 The whole Point To Point part of this talk/update didn't feel right at first until I remembered this.
Quote
Liked: 361
Likes Given: 898 Taking the idea of establishing a base on Mars or the Moon or elsewhere, seriously you need 1000's of ships and 10's of 1000's of tanker
refilling operations.
The most compelling reasons I can come up with for SpaceX proposing Point To Point with the BFR is, they need the
infrastructure. 39A 39B and Boca Chica wont cut it.
1000's of ships means a lot of launch pads.
Not only that but if you're one of the people thinking about going to Mars taking a 30 minute ride first seems fairly
prudent. Just to see how you like it.
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mlindner Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #77 on: 09/30/2017 12:10 AM
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Put rocket pad in international waters. No ITAR problem if it's not in another country's territory. Private launch pads
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protected by private defense guards (private military corporation).
Space Capitalist
Silicon Valley, CA --
previously in Ann Arbor, MI
Internal combustion engine in space. It's just a Bad Idea.TM - Robotbeat
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Dalhousie Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #78 on: 09/30/2017 12:19 AM
Posts: 2054 Quote from: mlindner on 09/30/2017 12:10 AM
Liked: 250 Quote from: Tonioroffo on 09/29/2017 06:27 AM
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Put rocket pad in international waters. No ITAR problem if it's not in another country's territory. Private launch pads protected by private
defense guards (private military corporation).
So long as components are manufactured in the US ITAR applies.
"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most
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matthewkantar Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #79 on: 09/30/2017 12:25 AM
Posts: 649 The biggest if, is if a vehicle like the proposed BFR can be made to be as safe as a modern airliner. I believe SpaceX can
make the thing safe enough to to use if the goal at stake is colonizing a new world, I don't think it can be made safe
Liked: 401 enough so that the risk is worth it if the stakes are getting to Asia a day early. A depressurization on the way up could
Likes Given: 405 not be handled with emergency oxygen masks, would be really ugly if the passengers were not equipped with pressure
suits. Suits seem like a no-go for cost and comfort reasons.
Unlike any current form of transportation, this will also take passengers out of a normal weight environment. The
combination of 3 or so G's for a few minutes, followed by a good stretch of weightlessness, followed by a few more
minutes of 3 G's is out of the experience of most humans. People get sick on airplanes, how would they hold up to
ballistic travel? I see Babies and people with all manner of infirmity traveling on air planes today, doubt they would fly
on BFR/BFS.
Please don't take this as concern trolling, I would be very excited for this to happen, may be the only way I ever get to
spend some in the great black yonder, but it looks like more of a long shot than getting people to Mars.
Matthew
QuantumG Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #80 on: 09/30/2017 12:27 AM
Quote from: Dalhousie on 09/30/2017 12:19 AM
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If the owner is a US citizen ITAR applies. On the other hand, if you maintain control of it you're not exporting it and the
Australia
law specifically says that something that goes via space isn't an export.
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Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of
Likes Given: 674 Zeno's paradox?
Zed_Noir
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Reply #81 on: 09/30/2017 12:56 AM
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Canada
Quote from: QuantumG on 09/30/2017 12:27 AM
Liked: 274 Quote from: Dalhousie on 09/30/2017 12:19 AM

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If the owner is a US citizen ITAR applies. On the other hand, if you maintain control of it you're not exporting it and the law specifically
says that something that goes via space isn't an export.
Otherwise no more comsat sold to anybody outside of the US. Quite sure all the US comsat manufacturers will disagree
with @Dalhousie's ITAR interpretation.

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Reply #82 on: 09/30/2017 12:57 AM
Posts: 759 Quote from: QuantumG on 09/30/2017 12:27 AM
Quote from: Dalhousie on 09/30/2017 12:19 AM

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If the owner is a US citizen ITAR applies. On the other hand, if you maintain control of it you're not exporting it and the law specifically
says that something that goes via space isn't an export.
It seems like SpaceX is showing a system they could keep complete ownership and control of, even if parts of it are
located on the sea in various places around the world.
Andy Bandy Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #83 on: 09/30/2017 02:26 AM
Posts: 16
California
A few of the obstacles to this type of point to point:
Liked: 3 Noise
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Ability of untrained passengers to deal effectively with high G forces
FAA certification
International regulatory issues
ChrisWilson68 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #84 on: 09/30/2017 03:33 AM
Posts: 3517 Quote from: Andy Bandy on 09/30/2017 02:26 AM

Sunnyvale, CA
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All of these have clear solutions.
Quote from: Andy Bandy on 09/30/2017 02:26 AM
Noise
Sonic booms
Musk already showed the solution to this in the video -- it's the reason the launch and landing platforms are out at sea.
The g forces are less than what millions of people subject themselves to on roller coasters.
It's true that some people wouldn't like the g forces. Those people would fly on airplanes instead.
This idea doesn't need to work for 100% of passengers. Just a small portion of commercial air travel would be enough
to make it a viable business.
FAA certification
SpaceX works with the FAA to get commercial launch licences. There's no reason to think they wouldn't be able to work
out a deal with the FAA and most other regulatory agencies.
It's possible some regulatory agency would not allow it. Then SpaceX would just fly somewhere else. After it's proven,
eventually most regulatory agencies would give in.
Pipcard Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Quote from: ChrisWilson68 on 09/30/2017 03:33 AM
Posts: 426
All of these have clear solutions.

Liked: 92
Likes Given: 91 Quote from: Andy Bandy on 09/30/2017 02:26 AM
Noise
Sonic booms
Musk already showed the solution to this in the video -- it's the reason the launch and landing platforms are out at sea.
The g forces are less than what millions of people subject themselves to on roller coasters.
It's true that some people wouldn't like the g forces. Those people would fly on airplanes instead.
This idea doesn't need to work for 100% of passengers. Just a small portion of commercial air travel would be enough to make it a
viable business.
FAA certification
SpaceX works with the FAA to get commercial launch licences. There's no reason to think they wouldn't be able to work out a deal with
the FAA and most other regulatory agencies.
It's possible some regulatory agency would not allow it. Then SpaceX would just fly somewhere else. After it's proven, eventually most
regulatory agencies would give in.
I know I always like to compare this with Kankoh-maru, a Japanese tourism SSTO concept for 50 people, so (bolded for
emphasis):
Quote
Market research performed in Japan since 1993 and in Canada, Germany and USA in 1995, shows a global market of as
many as 1 million passengers a year seems feasible if the price of a flight can be brought down to about $20,000 - that's
12,500 per person (at $1.60 to the pound).
In view of this, the JRS Space Tourism Business Research Committee was formally approved in April 1995, and meetings were held
monthly thereafter. Attendees included staff of Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Dentsu Communications, Shimizu Corporation, the Institute of
Space and Astronautical Science, Tokyo University, Teisan, Rocket Systems Company and retired experts from Chiyoda Corporation and
All Nippon Airways.
Their conclusions were that this would involve tens of flights per day. That is less than 0.1% of commercial aviation, now
at around 3 million passengers per day, but space travel will nevertheless become a relatively large-scale activity, and an
"ordinary" means of travel for members of the public.
They felt it would be best if flights to orbit take off from ordinary airports between airline flights to terrestrial destinations rather than
from specially built spaceports, as at present. They therefore considered what airport modifications would be required to permit Kankoh-
maru operations, such as including cryogenic propellant facilities; a dedicated Departure and Landing Facility; passenger handling
arrangements; compliance with noise regulations; integration into air traffic management systems, and other matters.
One of their conclusions was that even a traffic level of 1 million passengers a year requires only some 60 flights a day world-wide, so
the number of flights from any one airport would be very few compared to airline flights and accordingly, if carefully timed, noise should
not be a major problem. The Committee is considering certain airports around the world as candidates for case studies as first-
generation space tourism service sites. Prestwick in Scotland, may well be one of these.
Last Edit: 09/30/2017 03:41 AM by Pipcard Report to moderator Logged
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Reply #86 on: 09/30/2017 03:38 AM

Sunnyvale, CA
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plane.
But for most of the distance it travels it's outside so much of the atmosphere that it's effectively in vacuum. Most of the
fuel a plane burns is fighting friction. And most of that mass never gets up to the maximum speed -- it's burned off
earlier. Plus, as others have said, much of it is oxidizer, so the mass of fuel on a plane versus mass of prop on the
rocket can't be compared to see which requires more energy. Finally, the rocket will carry far more passengers.
raketa Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #87 on: 09/30/2017 03:49 AM
Posts: 210 Is it twice of fuel than A380 but could carry twice of people. Fuel consumption is same per person. Since could fly 10
times then airplane cost could be lower.
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Reply #88 on: 09/30/2017 03:55 AM
Posts: 3517 Quote from: matthewkantar on 09/30/2017 12:25 AM

Sunnyvale, CA
The biggest if, is if a vehicle like the proposed BFR can be made to be as safe as a modern airliner.
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It doesn't have to be as safe as a modern airliner. It only has to be safe enough for a tiny fraction of the traveling public
to want to do it.
For every 100 people who reach the summit of Everest, 6.5 die. Many people still spend huge amounts of money to do
that, and nobody stops them. BFR/BFS will undoubtedly be far safer before people ride it point to point.
I think the safety is a function of flight rate -- the more it's used, the safer it will become. There's no fundamental
reason that it couldn't be as safe as a modern airliner if it had the same flight rate as a modern airliner.
Quote from: matthewkantar on 09/30/2017 12:25 AM
I believe SpaceX can make the thing safe enough to to use if the goal at stake is colonizing a new world, I don't think it can be made
safe enough so that the risk is worth it if the stakes are getting to Asia a day early. A depressurization on the way up could not be
handled with emergency oxygen masks, would be really ugly if the passengers were not equipped with pressure suits. Suits seem like a
no-go for cost and comfort reasons.
The risks of depressurization could be made arbitrarily small.
Compared with airline travel, there are certain kinds of risks that would be more of a challenge with the rocket, but on
the other hand there are others that would be less of a challenge. Many airline fatalities are weather-related or related
to fatigue of the air crew, and the rocket would have much less risk from these factors because it would spend little time
in the lower atmosphere.
Quote from: matthewkantar on 09/30/2017 12:25 AM
Unlike any current form of transportation, this will also take passengers out of a normal weight environment. The combination of 3 or so
G's for a few minutes, followed by a good stretch of weightlessness, followed by a few more minutes of 3 G's is out of the experience of
most humans. People get sick on airplanes, how would they hold up to ballistic travel? I see Babies and people with all manner of
infirmity traveling on air planes today, doubt they would fly on BFR/BFS.
Babies would not be the target market for point-to-point BFR/BFS. :-)
It's true that many people wouldn't like it. But that's OK. They would only need a tiny fraction of world travelers to
choose this to make it a viable business.

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Reply #89 on: 09/30/2017 04:34 AM
Posts: 3406 Quote from: ChrisWilson68 on 09/30/2017 03:55 AM
Liked: 434 Babies would not be the target market for point-to-point BFR/BFS. :-)
Likes Given: 106
But think how many you could fit!

Michel Van Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #90 on: 09/30/2017 06:58 AM
Posts: 105 The Concept of Ballistic Transport system is old, very old
Liege, Belgium
already in 1920s Germany, they proposed Rockets to cover intercontinental distance with passengers !
in 1964 Phillip Bono proposed ROMBUS / PEGASUS / ITHACUS
Liked: 31 A gigant SSTO for 450 tons, or 172 passager & Cargo or 1200 soldier&equipment for intercontinental transport !
Likes Given: 66 also North American Aviation study the concept of intercontinental transport.
But the plans went into archive, no interest by NASA or commercial airlines like Pan Am
Now comes Elon Musk

He not propose his concept to commercial airlines
He create his own Market !
and there is Market for intercontinental transport,
For Businessmen who need to go to meeting from New York to Shanghai, from 2022 only a day trip.
2022 Amazon "you want your delivery from japan in 4, 6 or 12 hours ?" (BRF & Amazon Drones delivery)
On ticket price, 20 years ago Businessmen not care about ticket price Concorde airliner to get meeting with. (US-
Europe)
same goes of delivery of parts for repair or fast order manufacturing were price not play a role.
I wonder will Blue Origin counter with "New Armstrong" ?
Data on Phillip Bono.
http://www.astronautix.com/b/bono.html
douglas100 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #91 on: 09/30/2017 01:09 PM
Posts: 2147 My 5 pence.
Liked: 213 There's no doubt that it would work technically. The concerns (already covered up thread) are safety and environmental.
Likes Given: 95
I take Chris Wilson's point about passenger safety. If people understand the risks, and are still willing to fly, no problem.
I don't see this kind of service starting for many years while BFR is flying so there should be plenty of time to get data
on risks. Whether the regulatory hurdles will be that easy to overcome remains to seen.
Putting the spaceports offshore solves the problem of noise but rules out any kind of service close to an area of dense
population away from the coast. Some of the major cities of Europe would be ruled out. Also, the flight corridors in and
out of the spaceports have got to be managed to prevent overflight of dense populations. (The example shown would
result in the BFR overflying the East Coast early in its flight to Shanghai. I think there would be major objections to that.
Of course they should have shown the flight going east there wouldn't have been a problem.)
Also, the almost offhand way that Musk introduced the topic at the end of the talk kind of suggests that point to point
isn't exactly a top priority at SpaceX.
Finally, will there be a market for it? Don't know. Wait and see.
Edit: typo
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alang Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #92 on: 09/30/2017 01:14 PM
Posts: 179 1947 imagining:
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Reply #93 on: 09/30/2017 02:48 PM

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plane.
4400 tonnes, and that includes the LOX. Planes burn thousands of tonnes of oxygen on a long haul flight, but they pull it
out of the air.
There's only about 800 tonnes of methane burned per flight, which is on the same order of a large jetliner on a 15+
hour flight. Plus methane burns a lot cleaner. And there are other factors, e.g. this could be an incentive to capture
methane that is otherwise burned at stack flares.
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Reply #94 on: 09/30/2017 02:58 PM
Posts: 2401 Quote from: douglas100 on 09/30/2017 01:09 PM
Liked: 1056 My 5 pence.

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There's no doubt that it would work technically. The concerns (already covered up thread) are safety and environmental.
I take Chris Wilson's point about passenger safety. If people understand the risks, and are still willing to fly, no problem. I don't see this
kind of service starting for many years while BFR is flying so there should be plenty of time to get data on risks. Whether the regulatory
hurdles will be that easy to overcome remains to seen.
Putting the spaceports offshore solves the problem of noise but rules out any kind of service close to an area of dense population away
from the coast. Some of the major cities of Europe would be ruled out. Also, the flight corridors in and out of the spaceports have got to
be managed to prevent overflight of dense populations. (The example shown would result in the BFR overflying the East Coast early in its
flight to Shanghai. I think there would be major objections to that. Of course they should have shown the flight going east there
wouldn't have been a problem.)
Also, the almost offhand way that Musk introduced the topic at the end of the talk kind of suggests that point to point isn't exactly a top
priority at SpaceX.
Finally, will there be a market for it? Don't know. Wait and see.
Edit: typo
The instantaneous impact point trace can follow any path as long as the total expected casualties for any flight is less
than 30 per million, according to current FAA rules. Once reliability is high enough, overflying a city won't be a problem.
The issue is proving such high reliability.
philw1776 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #95 on: 09/30/2017 03:22 PM
Elon is like a Bizarro World D. D. Harriman. In Heinlein's "The Man Who sold the Moon" Harriman ran a point to point
intercontinental rocket company. Had a dream of going to the moon. Financed it somewhat creatively, building a big
freakin' rocket that could get there and back based on his intercontinental rocket technology. Of course, people were
always telling him he was crazy.
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Seacoast NH
When it looks more like an alien dreadnought, thats when you know youve won.
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Oli Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #96 on: 09/30/2017 03:58 PM
Posts: 2087 Quote from: Coastal Ron on 09/29/2017 04:25 PM
Liked: 365 Also, the most obvious one would be for military use.
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Yes, but BFR seems too big and unwieldy for a military application. Also I suspect it cannot fly skip glide trajectories. An
air-launched glider would be more appropriate for military use, if sufficiently cheap of course.

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Reply #97 on: 09/30/2017 04:08 PM
Posts: 7553 Quote from: Oli on 09/30/2017 03:58 PM

N. California
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 09/29/2017 04:25 PM
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Also, the most obvious one would be for military use.
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Yes, but BFR seems too big and unwieldy for a military application. Also I suspect it cannot fly skip glide trajectories. An air-launched
glider would be more appropriate for military use, if sufficiently cheap of course.
Unlike in the movies, military operations are 90% about logistics. Rapidly deployed supply chains and such.
If the BFR can operate on costs comparable to air transport, or even several times higher, it will huge in terms of
supplying forward bases.
It is also more difficult to shoot down than cargo plane - it is only in range briefly, and only over the destination. (Which
is a large base, not some remote outpost)
The biggest hurdle is getting the booster to the destination location... I wonder if it'd be possible to keep the booster on
a barge, and have the ship land remotely, unload, and still have enough fuel for a short hop back out to the barge where
the booster is waiting...
Such barges might be called... wait for it... "Ships that carry rockets", or something similar...
---
It does take a huge mental effort though to imagine rockets operating as airplanes, I have to admit. Technically it
works, but the paradigm shift is very difficult to digest...
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Falcon H Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #98 on: 09/30/2017 04:35 PM
I really hope SpaceX doesn't spend many resources on this. There's a lot on their plate and they have some pretty big
fish to fry....They need focus in my opinion.
Posts: 204
"Sooner or later, we must expand life beyond our little blue mud ball--or go extinct" Elon Musk
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ThereIWas3 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #99 on: 09/30/2017 04:37 PM
Posts: 603
Liked: 251 800 people to Australia in one flight .... hmm. And airlines are not buying A380's because airports can not deal with
Likes Given: 211 that many people at once moving to or from one aircraft. (The A380 carries between 400 and 800 people depending on
layout) The lines!
And then all the screaming babies when it reaches zero-gee coast phase... Not to mention the screaming adults. Or all
the pasengers have to go through training first?
"If you want to build a ship, dont drum up people to collect wood and dont assign them tasks and work, but rather teach them to long for the
endless immensity of the sea" - Antoine de Saint-Exupry
Welsh Dragon Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #100 on: 09/30/2017 04:40 PM
Posts: 200 Clearly, if this thing ever happens, it's not going to be landing at any existing airport, so that's not a problem.
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Reply #101 on: 09/30/2017 04:47 PM

N. California
800 people to Australia in one flight .... hmm. And airlines are not buying A380's because airports can not deal with that many people at
once moving to or from one aircraft. (The A380 carries between 400 and 800 people depending on layout) The lines!
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And then all the screaming babies when it reaches zero-gee coast phase... Not to mention the screaming adults. Or all the pasengers
have to go through training first?
The p2p vision is grand, will take time, and will happen very gradually... But it makes a lot of sense. Fuel cost is
comparable, and equipment cost is motivated by the much faster in-flight time.
Distraction, nah. Step 1, build it, service the launch market. Step 2, BFC. At that point, with a viable business and
vehicle, 5-10 years from now, this thing will just beg to be built.
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Reply #102 on: 09/30/2017 05:22 PM
Posts: 649 Quote from: Falcon H on 09/30/2017 04:35 PM
I really hope SpaceX doesn't spend many resources on this. There's a lot on their plate and they have some pretty big fish to fry....They
Liked: 401
need focus in my opinion.
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Agree, hoping requirements for P2P application don't bog down or complicate Mars plans.
cppetrie Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #103 on: 09/30/2017 05:39 PM
Posts: 315 This was very clearly an afterthought on how else the system could be used once it is built and proven. This wasnt a
near-term plan for how to finance it. It was simply a if we build it for this Mars and moon stuff, which we think is reason
Liked: 155 enough to do it, it turns out it could also be useful for this other thing as well, which would be pretty cool. The P2P stuff
Likes Given: 3 will in no way distract from the primary purpose, which is to get us closer to be a space-faring species (and get the
attention of a passing Vulcan ship ).

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HMXHMX Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #104 on: 09/30/2017 05:45 PM
Posts: 1369 I may have missed seeing someone else post the (I thought) famous Arthur C. Clarke quote about the joys of ballistic
rocket transport (if so, apologies for reposting) but here it is:
Liked: 846
Likes Given: 260 "At no time during the trip could anyone claim to be comfortable, and for the weightless portion of the flight even the
famous paper bag would be unusable. It might not be unfair to say that in round-the-world [rocket] transportation, half
the time the toilet is out of reach, and the other half of the time it is out of order."
chalz, RedLineTrain, Semmel and 1 other like this
douglas100 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #105 on: 09/30/2017 05:52 PM
Posts: 2147 Quote from: envy887 on 09/30/2017 02:58 PM
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The instantaneous impact point trace can follow any path as long as the total expected casualties for any flight is less than 30 per million,
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according to current FAA rules. Once reliability is high enough, overflying a city won't be a problem. The issue is proving such high
reliability.
Take the point about reliability. But the real problem would be convincing people under the flight path that they were in
no real danger. Also, if BFR were to fly west as in Musk's example, the noise levels in New York City during the early part
of the flight could be intolerable for many of the citizens. But if flights start and end at offshore platforms, and always
head away from the coast, then probably OK.
Douglas Clark
CuddlyRocket Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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To boldly go - now please!
Reply #106 on: 10/01/2017 01:26 AM
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I'm sure Elon has done the basic calculations to show that such a system could work from both an engineering and
Posts: 1553 financial perspective. The problem is how to put such a system in place? There are two main obstacles: financing it
London
before it becomes operational and - connected - overcoming potential regulatory and public resistance. The connection
is that you're going to have to show a lot of testing and operational experience before they let the public near it and be
willing to use it (in large numbers, anyway) and that's expensive.
Liked: 469
Likes Given: 6 But Elon seems to be good at finding steps between here and now, each of which can themselves be profitable. So what
might the steps here be?
The BFR's starting bread and butter will be satellite launches and ISS or other space station resupply. There will be the
Moon, Mars etc, but an obvious business opportunity is orbital tourism. This may start with additional passengers on
station resupply runs. The BFR has far more capacity than needed for crew rotation and cargo requirements, so why not
take a few extra passengers along for the ride. (They can stay on the BFR and need never set foot on the station -
though eventually they'll rename a station as a hotel.)
But large-scale tourism will require extensive flight experience. How to build this up? Step down a notch and do sub-
orbital flights; launching and landing at the same place (a special case of point-to-point) and gradually extending the
time of flight. Once proven at one place, people will probably want to do it at different places. Start with ITAR-friendly
US allies (UK, Japan, Australia, etc.). Once those are up and running and the time of flight is long enough, why not fly
between? Sell two tickets per passenger! People will probably want a gap between flights, and why not extend it so they
can have some time to look around the destination. But then you've effectively got scheduled flights, and people will
start to take advantage of the schedule just for the travel rather than the tourism. Add more destinations, more flights
and there you are!
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Reply #107 on: 10/01/2017 01:50 AM
Posts: 7553 The system grows naturally.

N. California
There will be, sooner or later, a west coast launch pad.

Liked: 3876
Likes Given: 810 Add just one more floating pad near Tokyo or Beijing, and you have a first route, with relatively low investment.
If the cost is indeed low, use it for cargo for a year or two.
The booster is the same booster - only the airplane needs to be a variant. Maybe 3 landing engines, and smaller vacuum
nozzles (if any). Maybe it won't even need the wing. Buy it's just a variant not a full-up design.
Once this line works, expand.
Revenue is linear with # of rockets, and square of # of pads.


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Reply #108 on: 10/01/2017 03:08 AM
Posts: 759 Theres a classic trademark currently unused that Musk might pick up for the passenger spaceliner business.
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89424D20-D924-451D-9899-4A7E35009B57.jpeg (50.81 kB, 564x1595 - viewed 57 times.)
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Reply #109 on: 10/01/2017 03:21 AM
Posts: 759 Quote from: Falcon H on 09/30/2017 04:35 PM
I really hope SpaceX doesn't spend many resources on this. There's a lot on their plate and they have some pretty big fish to fry....They
Liked: 270
need focus in my opinion.
Likes Given: 130
If you mean the point to point rocket service, dont worry too much. Its exactly the same hardware, even the BFR ASDS
would be exactly the same as needed for all BFR launches. Like the other applications shown in Adelaide, its just
another market or use case for BFR. Its pretty amazing how versatile it is.
If SpaceX is serious about Mars they need a lot of BFR launch sites and a lot of boosters. They need something to justify
and pay for them between synods. Those ASDS platforms are a great way to mass produce launch sites in a shipyard.
su27k Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #110 on: 10/01/2017 05:37 AM
Posts: 615 Quote from: matthewkantar on 09/30/2017 05:22 PM
Quote from: Falcon H on 09/30/2017 04:35 PM

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I really hope SpaceX doesn't spend many resources on this. There's a lot on their plate and they have some pretty big fish to
fry....They need focus in my opinion.
Agree, hoping requirements for P2P application don't bog down or complicate Mars plans.
That what I thought initially, but then it looks like Steve Jurvetson likes this idea. If P2P can get more investors on board
BFR, then spending some engineering hours on it is worth it.

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Reply #111 on: 10/01/2017 06:30 AM
Posts: 201 Quote from: Ludus on 10/01/2017 03:21 AM

France
If you mean the point to point rocket service, dont worry too much. Its exactly the same hardware, even the BFR ASDS would be
exactly the same as needed for all BFR launches. Like the other applications shown in Adelaide, its just another market or use case for
Liked: 112
BFR. Its pretty amazing how versatile it is.
Likes Given: 6
Why would it be the same hardware ? What's the point of carrying 4 vacuum raptors and all that tankage for a
suborbital flight? Or a 6-month capacity ECLSS ? You probably wouldn't need the internal header tanks either. And since
you are redesigning the lower end, then you might as well resize it to optimize pax capacity with market expectations,
boarding procedures and and FAA regulations (90 second evacuation, etc...).
Those slides were purely conceptual and/or clickbait. Don't read too much into them.
Last Edit: 10/01/2017 08:37 AM by Nibb31 Report to moderator Logged
alang Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #112 on: 10/01/2017 08:32 AM
Posts: 179 Difficult to see safe routes that would be accessible to European cities and avoid overflight of populated areas or
neighbours who don't want ballistic missiles. It would have to be from the North sea.
Liked: 50
Likes Given: 5 North sea to Hawaii might work or North sea to southern Africa the long way round, but where's the market? Maybe, if
you're an optimist about Africa.

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Reply #113 on: 10/01/2017 08:43 AM
Posts: 7553 Quote from: Nibb31 on 10/01/2017 06:30 AM

N. California
Quote from: Ludus on 10/01/2017 03:21 AM
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exactly the same as needed for all BFR launches. Like the other applications shown in Adelaide, its just another market or use case
for BFR. Its pretty amazing how versatile it is.
Why would it be the same hardware ? What's the point of carrying 4 vacuum raptors and all that tankage for a suborbital flight? Or a 6-
month capacity ECLSS ? You probably wouldn't need the internal header tanks either. And since you are redesigning the lower end, then
you might as well resize it to optimize pax capacity with market expectations, boarding procedures and and FAA regulations (90 second
evacuation, etc...).
Similar hardware.
Same S1, and S2 with small mods.
Most of the thrust is in vacuum, and this "suborbital" is practically orbital. Maybe fit a third SL engine for more
redundancy.
Still though - if it's a good business, they can eat that market before any competitors show up.
inonepiece Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #114 on: 10/01/2017 08:03 PM
Posts: 53
Quote from: JamesH65 on 09/29/2017 12:47 PM

Liked: 22
Likes Given: 56 Some figures were bandied about earlier, 800 people per flight, cost of flight $1M (assuming half full tanks?). $1M/800 = $1250 per
passenger. Current cheapest airline costs for UK to Oz is $800 (cattle class, most unpleasant for 24hrs). That is not a huge difference.
Would it be worth it to save a day? For a lot of people, yes.
If those were the figures, and pricing works anything like airline pricing, the lowest ticket price would be much less than
that, because something like say 20% of the passengers pay for 50% of the revenue.
However, pushing the numbers in the opposite direction, isn't $1M an estimate only of the cost price, excluding profit?

Member
Reply #115 on: 10/01/2017 09:23 PM
Posts: 53

Liked: 22
Likes Given: 56 Why would it be the same hardware ?
Development costs?
A first transport system of this kind doesn't have to be better than all possible systems of that type. It just has to be
enough better than a plane for enough trips to make it worthwhile.
I have to say I'll be very impressed if they get safety to a demonstrated level anywhere approaching passenger
airliners. But then I'm very impressed indeed by 747s!
RedLineTrain Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #116 on: 10/01/2017 09:36 PM
Posts: 479 Quote from: HMXHMX on 09/30/2017 05:45 PM
I may have missed seeing someone else post the (I thought) famous Arthur C. Clarke quote about the joys of ballistic rocket transport (if
Liked: 219
so, apologies for reposting) but here it is:
Likes Given: 209
"At no time during the trip could anyone claim to be comfortable, and for the weightless portion of the flight even the famous paper bag
would be unusable. It might not be unfair to say that in round-the-world [rocket] transportation, half the time the toilet is out of reach,
and the other half of the time it is out of order."
It might make sense to have a continuous burn to settle passengers' stomachs.

HMXHMX Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #117 on: 10/01/2017 11:07 PM
Posts: 1369 Quote from: RedLineTrain on 10/01/2017 09:36 PM
Quote from: HMXHMX on 09/30/2017 05:45 PM

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I may have missed seeing someone else post the (I thought) famous Arthur C. Clarke quote about the joys of ballistic rocket
transport (if so, apologies for reposting) but here it is:
"At no time during the trip could anyone claim to be comfortable, and for the weightless portion of the flight even the famous paper
bag would be unusable. It might not be unfair to say that in round-the-world [rocket] transportation, half the time the toilet is out
of reach, and the other half of the time it is out of order."
That's not really possible from a delta-v standpoint for antipodal distances.
Robotbeat Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #118 on: 10/01/2017 11:38 PM
Take a handful of Dramamine.
Nausea isn't something new to long distance travel. Seasickness is super common.
On the plus side, it's likely that the ship will be pressurized all the way to sea level, so no ear popping. Anyone who has
Posts: 26705
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traveled with very small children know how painful that can be for them.
If I were traveling with small children, I'd take 20 minutes of weightlessness over 15 hours in an airplane any day of the
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Chris Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.
To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation
services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

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Reply #119 on: 10/01/2017 11:55 PM
Posts: 7553 Quote from: HMXHMX on 10/01/2017 11:07 PM

N. California
Quote from: RedLineTrain on 10/01/2017 09:36 PM
Liked: 3876
Quote from: HMXHMX on 09/30/2017 05:45 PM
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I may have missed seeing someone else post the (I thought) famous Arthur C. Clarke quote about the joys of ballistic rocket
transport (if so, apologies for reposting) but here it is:
"At no time during the trip could anyone claim to be comfortable, and for the weightless portion of the flight even the famous
paper bag would be unusable. It might not be unfair to say that in round-the-world [rocket] transportation, half the time the
toilet is out of reach, and the other half of the time it is out of order."
That's not really possible from a delta-v standpoint for antipodal distances.
Unless it only takes 0.1 g to do the trick.

1 m/s2, for 1200 seconds (give or take) - not impossible.
The funny part, if you want to get there "faster than ballistically possible", you need to fly at super-orbital speed,
pointing "engines up", and continuously thrusting...
(Because before soon, people will be whining about the 20 minutes that are so boring and forever-taking)

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Reply #120 on: 10/02/2017 12:10 AM
Posts: 275 Quote from: meekGee on 10/01/2017 11:55 PM

Fife
Unless it only takes 0.1 g to do the trick.
1 m/s2, for 1200 seconds (give or take) - not impossible.
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The funny part, if you want to get there "faster than ballistically possible", you need to fly at super-orbital speed, pointing "engines up",
and continuously thrusting...
A modest tether with a ten ton weight on the end could in principle also be used.

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Reply #121 on: 10/02/2017 12:14 AM
Posts: 3406 Quote from: meekGee on 10/01/2017 11:55 PM
The funny part, if you want to get there "faster than ballistically possible", you need to fly at super-orbital speed, pointing "engines up",
Liked: 434
and continuously thrusting...
Likes Given: 106
Hmmm.. Hyperloop can eventually be faster than BFR.
How fast can you get around if you have a comfortable 1g outwards in your hyperloop? .. come to think of it, before
then, when it matches BFR for speed it also gives you weightlessness.

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Reply #122 on: 10/02/2017 01:50 AM
Posts: 275 Quote from: KelvinZero on 10/02/2017 12:14 AM

Fife
How fast can you get around if you have a comfortable 1g outwards in your hyperloop? .. come to think of it, before then, when it
matches BFR for speed it also gives you weightlessness.
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Electromagnetic lift systems also have drag.
An electromagnetic lift system capable of propelling the train, and countering drag and accellerating the train to
~10km/s is ridiculously beyond the state of the art, never mind the gigawatts it would take for a very small train.
It would make the fuel use of the BFR look economic.
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.522.2954&rep=rep1&type=pdf is a sort-of-related to BFR

commercial rocketry in that it could in principle, by the use of microwave power from the ground at high power and
~200GHz add resistive 'afterburner'.
(the numbers in the case of the BFR are not as beneficial, as methane doesn't work as well for this as hydrogen).
The above network could also in principle revolutionise the airplane industry, with many or all airliners powered from the
ground. (or, of course, SPS)
Last Edit: 10/02/2017 01:55 AM by speedevil Report to moderator Logged
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Reply #123 on: 10/02/2017 02:11 AM
Posts: 37
Austin, Texas
Liked: 14 Quote from: DreamyPickle on 09/29/2017 06:22 AM

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Do they really need the full-sized booster for point-to-point travel? That thing is huge and operating it from a floating platform
would be a major effort. Also I couldn't hope but notice the pad crane is the same one from IAC 2016 and still not very realistic.
Almost certainly will have major updates, currently is not optimised for point to point, booster is too big, though I think that single stage
would not be efficient enough on the longer routes.
Floating platform is probably cheap compared to a major airport, the can reuse the same design, so unit cost reduced. Problem is that
they need one per destination, so creating a network can be expensive.
If it requires more than minor optimization, I don't think it will happen. They'll certainly have to reconfigure the
cargo/passenger area, but I think the point is that BFR in its current design is cheap and reusable to LEO, so point-to-
point might actually make sense and potentially provide revenue. But they won't want any significant distraction from
Mars.

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Reply #124 on: 10/02/2017 02:27 AM
Posts: 3406 Quote from: speedevil on 10/02/2017 01:50 AM
An electromagnetic lift system capable of propelling the train, and countering drag and accellerating the train to ~10km/s is ridiculously
Liked: 434
beyond the state of the art, never mind the gigawatts it would take for a very small train.
Likes Given: 106
It would make the fuel use of the BFR look economic.
I accept it is well beyond the state of the art. The rest I find very hard to accept. Do you have some sort of reference to
explain what you mean?

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Reply #125 on: 10/02/2017 02:54 AM
Liked: 270 Quote from: Ludus on 10/01/2017 03:21 AM

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Why would it be the same hardware ? What's the point of carrying 4 vacuum raptors and all that tankage for a suborbital flight? Or a 6-
month capacity ECLSS ? You probably wouldn't need the internal header tanks either. And since you are redesigning the lower end, then
you might as well resize it to optimize pax capacity with market expectations, boarding procedures and and FAA regulations (90 second
evacuation, etc...).
The main reason is thats the purpose of this idea, to create more markets for the rocket system and spaceports Musk
wants to build to make humans genuinely spacefaring. There is a tendency in astronautics to want to optimize
everything for special use cases. Thats not what this is about. Its about mass producing a DC-3 that can bring down the
costs of space faring because it can do almost anything well enough. No special Lunar landers, Mars Landers, Fuel
Depots, orbital shuttles, satellite launchers, Rocket express spaceliners. All basically the same mass produced ship
launched and processed the same way.
These are fractional orbit flights and make use of the vacuum Raptors. One reason to keep them standard is so they can
be used flexibly for different purposes. Every synod theres a flurry of Mars launch activity that requires a lot of rockets
and spaceports. In between it would be useful if a BFS could be repurposed as needed.
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Reply #126 on: 10/02/2017 04:51 AM
Posts: 7553 Quote from: Ludus on 10/02/2017 02:54 AM

N. California
Liked: 3876
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If you mean the point to point rocket service, dont worry too much. Its exactly the same hardware, even the BFR ASDS
would be exactly the same as needed for all BFR launches. Like the other applications shown in Adelaide, its just another
market or use case for BFR. Its pretty amazing how versatile it is.
Why would it be the same hardware ? What's the point of carrying 4 vacuum raptors and all that tankage for a suborbital flight? Or
a 6-month capacity ECLSS ? You probably wouldn't need the internal header tanks either. And since you are redesigning the lower
end, then you might as well resize it to optimize pax capacity with market expectations, boarding procedures and and FAA
regulations (90 second evacuation, etc...).
The main reason is thats the purpose of this idea, to create more markets for the rocket system and spaceports Musk wants to build to
make humans genuinely spacefaring. There is a tendency in astronautics to want to optimize everything for special use cases. Thats not
what this is about. Its about mass producing a DC-3 that can bring down the costs of space faring because it can do almost anything
well enough. No special Lunar landers, Mars Landers, Fuel Depots, orbital shuttles, satellite launchers, Rocket express spaceliners. All
basically the same mass produced ship launched and processed the same way.
These are fractional orbit flights and make use of the vacuum Raptors. One reason to keep them standard is so they can be used flexibly
for different purposes. Every synod theres a flurry of Mars launch activity that requires a lot of rockets and spaceports. In between it
would be useful if a BFS could be repurposed as needed.
Standard, sure, but variants count as "same".
Take a look at any modern jetliner. You get the passenger variant, and cargo, and make aerial refueler, or a fire fighter,
or electronic warfare.... and the changes go beyond just the cabin - they are structural as well - since these pale in
comparison to the single cost of developing the airplane.
So a sub-orbital passenger ship, with maybe 3 instead of 2 landing engines, small vac nozzles, and obviously a
completely different seating layout - that's absolutely within reason. The prize - the long-haul passenger and cargo
market, plus military - is definitely large enough.
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Reply #127 on: 10/02/2017 05:06 AM

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Why would it be the same hardware ? What's the point of carrying 4 vacuum raptors and all that tankage for a suborbital flight?
The "suborbital" in this case is something like > 90% of orbital velocity. The 4 vacuum raptors and lots of fuel are
NEEDED the reach this. And most of the acceleration is happening outside dense atmosphere, where the vacuum raptors
are more efficient than the atmospheric raptors.
They will have different seating however, to fit much greater number of people inside the craft.
Quote
Or a 6-month capacity ECLSS ?
Might have slightly different life support system.
Quote
You probably wouldn't need the internal header tanks either.
Probably NEED them.
They are needed to get stable propellant flow to engines during descent. Equally needed for this purpose after 25min
flight than after 6 month flight.
Quote
And since you are redesigning the lower end, then you might as well resize it to optimize pax capacity with market expectations,
boarding procedures and and FAA regulations (90 second evacuation, etc...).
No, lower end is exactly identical. Not redesigning ANYTHING there.
And "something is not needed" is very weak argument for changing something when changing it is more costly than
keeping it.

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Reply #128 on: 10/02/2017 08:06 AM
Senior Member
Quote from: jpo234 on 09/29/2017 10:03 AM
Quote from: woods170 on 09/29/2017 10:01 AM
It's not as if SpaceX is going to export BFR to China. BFR will fly there, and then back again. Similar to airlines, however mostly
above the atmosphere in stead of in it.
Posts: 7115
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The Netherlands What about the booster? It doesn't fly around the world like the ship. It stays at the launch site.
Correct. But that still does not make it an exported item.

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(Sorry for the late response)
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Reply #129 on: 10/02/2017 08:57 AM
Posts: 585 Quote from: MikeAtkinson on 09/29/2017 06:33 AM
Quote from: DreamyPickle on 09/29/2017 06:22 AM

Liked: 148
Likes Given: 77
Do they really need the full-sized booster for point-to-point travel? That thing is huge and operating it from a floating platform
would be a major effort. Also I couldn't hope but notice the pad crane is the same one from IAC 2016 and still not very realistic.
Almost certainly will have major updates, currently is not optimised for point to point, booster is too big, though I think that single stage
would not be efficient enough on the longer routes.
The booster is not too big.
It's kinda other way around:
The booster is too SMALL for optimized orbital launch vehicle.
For optimal payload fraction to LEO or GTO the booster would be bigger and the spacecraft smaller. But because it's not
just a launch vehicle from earth but also LEO->Mars and Mars -> Earth transportation vehicle, the craft has to have
enough delta-v for the return trip and trip from LEO to Mars. And when it has this huge amount of delta-v capacity, it
needs smaller booster stage than "optimally staged launcher" would require.

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Reply #130 on: 10/02/2017 09:31 AM
Senior Member
Quote from: tobi453 on 09/29/2017 02:21 PM
China is not going to allow the US to land an ICBM that close to Shanghai.
IMHO flights between Australia, US, Japan, Canada and Europe are possible from a political point of view. Maybe also South America, but
anything close to Russia or China is a no go.
Posts: 7115
IRAS fan Minor nit. This one doesn't contain a nuclear warhead.
The Netherlands
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Reply #131 on: 10/02/2017 11:18 AM
Posts: 72
Home
The whole "it won't be allowed because it's an ICBM" angle is nonsense. It's easy to distinguish, flights will be scheduled
in advance and an "attack" is not much more plausible than a 747 filled with nukes.
Liked: 39
Likes Given: 3 After landing precision is proven a few times it will be possible to negotiate with aviation authorities around the world to
secure landing permission.
Last Edit: 10/02/2017 11:19 AM by DreamyPickle Report to moderator Logged
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Reply #132 on: 10/02/2017 12:25 PM
Posts: 201 Quote from: DreamyPickle on 10/02/2017 11:18 AM

France
The whole "it won't be allowed because it's an ICBM" angle is nonsense. It's easy to distinguish, flights will be scheduled in advance and
an "attack" is not much more plausible than a 747 filled with nukes.
Liked: 112
Likes Given: 6
People can turn a delivery truck or an airliner into a weapon. There's no reason why you couldn't turn a suborbital rocket
into one. That might not be a good enough reason to ban it, but it's no reason to underestimate destructive ingeniosity
or the political pressure of fearful populations.
Tev Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

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Reply #133 on: 10/02/2017 12:30 PM
Posts: 34
Prague
Liked: 13 Quote from: DreamyPickle on 10/02/2017 11:18 AM

Likes Given: 3480
The whole "it won't be allowed because it's an ICBM" angle is nonsense. It's easy to distinguish, flights will be scheduled in advance
and an "attack" is not much more plausible than a 747 filled with nukes.
People can turn a delivery truck or an airliner into a weapon. There's no reason why you couldn't turn a suborbital rocket into one. That
might not be a good enough reason to ban it, but it's no reason to underestimate destructive ingeniosity or the political pressure of
fearful populations.
I agree on the fear point, but you can still argue that this (almost?) fully automatic system is much harder (if possible at
all) to divert into the city than human-controlled airplane / truck / whatever.

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Reply #134 on: 10/02/2017 12:42 PM
Posts: 3406 I think there could be an interesting interrelationship with such a launcher and hyperloops. simplistically, at 1000km/h,
that is 6 minutes for 100km. (acceleration phase probably becomes important over such a 'tiny' distance) It is probably
Liked: 434 cheaper laying a hyperloop under water than through rock.
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Reply #135 on: 10/02/2017 01:35 PM
Posts: 275 Quote from: KelvinZero on 10/02/2017 12:42 PM

Fife
I think there could be an interesting interrelationship with such a launcher and hyperloops.
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Hyperloops + Tesla autodrive fleet + rockets. An interesting synergy.

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Reply #136 on: 10/02/2017 01:40 PM
Posts: 201 Quote from: Tev on 10/02/2017 12:30 PM

France
I agree on the fear point, but you can still argue that this (almost?) fully automatic system is much harder (if possible at all) to divert
into the city than human-controlled airplane / truck / whatever.
Liked: 112
Likes Given: 6
Depends who is doing the diverting. A fully automatic system might be easier to hack by a foreign government's
cybersecurity agency. Who knows?
A lot of the issue isn't what's possible or probable, but how it is perceived by the general public and lobbied to
politicians.

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Reply #137 on: 10/02/2017 07:27 PM
Posts: 53
Quote from: meekGee on 10/02/2017 04:51 AM

Liked: 22
Likes Given: 56 So a sub-orbital passenger ship, with maybe 3 instead of 2 landing engines, small vac nozzles, and obviously a completely different
seating layout - that's absolutely within reason. The prize - the long-haul passenger and cargo market, plus military - is definitely large
enough.
You mention the possibility of 3 landing engines. I think Elon did use a phrase close to "multi engine out capability"
(though if I recall correctly he may have tripped over the words slightly... he did seem unusually nervous). Maybe he
has that in mind?
I have to say the combination of the earth transport thing with only 2 surface engines did make me scratch my chin.
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SpaceX Suborbital Shuttle - Anywhere On Earth in 25 Minutes

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02/10/2017 SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in 25 minutes?

NASASpaceFlight.com Forum SpaceX Vehicles and Missions SpaceX General Section

Ben the Space SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in 25

BFR | Earth to Earth

"Oops! I left the silly thing in reverse!" - Duck Dodgers

The Space Shuttle Program - 1981-2011

DreamyPickle Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

BroncoBill Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

MikeAtkinson Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

Posts: 1659 Quote from: BroncoBill on 09/29/2017 06:23 AM

Tonioroffo Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

Won't ITAR cause issues for this?

tobi453 and ANTIcarrot like this

tobi453 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

Posts: 223 CO2 emissions anyone?

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biosehnsucht Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

VDM likes this

meekGee Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

ChrisWilson68, hkultala and mark_m like this

ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

MikeAtkinson Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

Posts: 1659 Quote from: DreamyPickle on 09/29/2017 06:22 AM

Posts: 1659 Quote from: tobi453 on 09/29/2017 06:28 AM

Ben the Space Brit likes this

Jarnis Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

Ben the Space Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

Quote from: DreamyPickle on 09/29/2017 06:22 AM

Do they really need the full-sized booster for point-to-point travel?

The Space Shuttle Program - 1981-2011

tobi453 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

Posts: 223 Quote from: MikeAtkinson on 09/29/2017 06:35 AM

Quote from: tobi453 on 09/29/2017 06:28 AM

Only about the same as a plane for the same route.

Pipcard Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

Quote from: Tonioroffo on 09/29/2017 06:27 AM

Won't ITAR cause issues for this?

MikeAtkinson Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

Posts: 1659 Quote from: tobi453 on 09/29/2017 07:01 AM

CO2 emissions anyone?

Only about the same as a plane for the same route.

Ben the Space Brit and Tev like this

Patchouli Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

calapine Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

The video says "Paris to New York 30 minutes"

gosnold, ANTIcarrot, savuporo and 1 other like this

darkenfast Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

Ben the Space Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

Quote from: calapine on 09/29/2017 08:28 AM

The video says "Paris to New York 30 minutes"

"Oops! I left the silly thing in reverse!" - Duck Dodgers

The Space Shuttle Program - 1981-2011

Nibb31 Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

Ben the Space Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

Quote from: Nibb31 on 09/29/2017 08:53 AM

"Oops! I left the silly thing in reverse!" - Duck Dodgers

The Space Shuttle Program - 1981-2011

Darkseraph Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

KelvinZero Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

My happy place: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Solar_System_objects_by_size

Ben the Space Re: SpaceX suborbital shuttle - Anywhere on Earth in

Quote from: KelvinZero on 09/29/2017 09:13 AM

The Space Shuttle Program - 1981-2011