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Forecasts for Tourism in Switzerland - Issue October 2015

Author(s):
Abrahamsen, Yngve; Hlg, Florian; Simmons-Ser, Banu; Sturm, Jan-Egbert

Publication Date:
2015-10

Permanent Link:
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-010681400

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 Forecasts for Tourism in Switzerland
Issue October 2015
Yngve Abrahamsen, Florian Hlg, Dr. Banu Simmons-Ser and Prof. Dr. Jan-Egbert Sturm

No. 196
KOF Studies No. 68, October 2015
Imprint Editor
KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich
2015 KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich

Initiator
State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO,
Promotion Activities Directorate
Tourism Policy

Authors
Yngve Abrahamsen
Florian Hlg
Dr. Banu Simmons-Ser
Prof. Dr. Jan-Egbert Sturm

ETH Zurich
KOF Swiss Economic Institute
LEE G 116
Leonhardstrasse 21
8092 Zurich

Phone +41 44 632 42 39

Fax +41 44 632 12 18
www.kof.ethz.ch
kof@kof.ethz.ch
Tourism Forecasts for Switzerland
The strength of the Swiss franc and the resulting weak domestic economy are placing a strain
on the tourist industry. Following two years of recovery, this year will record a decline in over-
night stays. Although the impact of the Swiss franc shock was less pronounced than anticipated
in spring, individual regions have experienced a significant drop in demand from Europe. Nev-
ertheless, the economic outlook is moderately positive and a slight recovery is expected for the
coming two tourist years. For 2016, the forecast projects a 1.6% increase in overnight stays
rising to 2% in 2017.

2015 summer season: overnight stays stagnate

The record of the summer season was patchy: due to the hot weather, more Swiss tourists holidayed in
Switzerland than in the past year. Visitor numbers from the Euro area, on the other hand, declined in
some cases considerably. Rising numbers of overnight stays of tourists from overseas markets in Asia
and the Arab region did not fully compensate for this drop. Current estimates anticipate a stagnation in
overnight stays. A shift in the tourist structure led to rising demand in urban areas. Regions that focus
on the holiday business, as well as the region of Ticino, recorded a decline in overnight stays.

2015/2016 winter season: domestic demand up, foreign demand down

Due to the strong Swiss franc, fewer visitors from the Euro area will spend their winter holidays in Swit-
zerland. The slight improvement in the European economy combined with rising demand from the UK,
the USA and other overseas markets will offset the drop in price-sensitive guests at least to some de-
gree. The number of foreign overnight stays will nevertheless decline. Thanks to a slightly more positive
outlook for the Swiss economy, demand among domestic tourists will rise. All in all, KOF anticipates
further stagnation in the Swiss tourist industry in the coming winter season.

Tourism value added

Total tourist demand this year is set to drop by 1.5%, primarily due to the decline in foreign demand. At
the same time, gross value added will decrease by 2.7%. Following two forecast years with rising tourism
value added in Switzerland, dynamics have slowed down this year as a consequence of price reductions
caused by the Swiss franc shock. Since it is difficult to adjust intermediary inputs in the tourism industry
in the short term, price reductions directly translate into lower margins and hence slower growth in gross
value added.

Alpine winter sport tourism

A special analysis section examines the international and national trends in Alpine winter sport tourism.
Compared to France and Austria, the other main winter sport destinations, Switzerland has lost market
share over the last few years. One of the main reasons for this development is loss of price competitive-
ness. Both foreign and domestic tourists are price-sensitive and are shifting to other destinations. Within
Switzerland, among the main winter sport regions of Valais, Grisons, Bernese Oberland and Central
Switzerland, only the latter has managed to retain stable visitor numbers. However, the cost-effective-
ness of lift operations has declined less swiftly than visitor numbers. In the coming winter season, KOF
anticipates a 1.4% drop in visitors in the Alpine region.
Prognosen fr den Schweizer Tourismus Oktober 2015

Review of 2015 Summer Season

Overnight stays stagnate in summer season
Various factors made this summer a rather patchy season for the Swiss tourist industry. At the start of
the season, hot weather conditions, in particular compared to the previous years period, led to a rise in
domestic overnight stays. The number of overnight stays of tourists from oversea markets in Asia and
the Arab region also increased significantly in some cases. In contrast, the substantial decline in Euro-
pean guests caused by the Swiss franc appreciation at the beginning of the year persisted. Hence, the
tourist structure shifted further in favour of oversea markets. Based on the current estimate of the two
outstanding months of the season, a stagnating trend in overnight stays in the summer season is antic-
ipated.

Figure 1: Trend in Overnight Stays in the Summer Season

Growth rate compared to previous year's season; Source: BFS, KOF

5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Total Swiss Foreign

Trend in domestic demand slightly positive

Although the number of domestic overnight stays in the summer season increased only moderately
compared to the previous years period, domestic demand followed a more positive trend than expected
in spring. In all likelihood, the hot weather was the main factor driving up the number of overnight stays
at the beginning of the season. From August onwards, the trend slowed down due to pre-emptive effects.
In addition, the impact of the Swiss franc shock on the domestic economy turned out to be less pro-
nounced than anticipated in spring. According to current estimates, the number of domestic overnight
stays rose by 0.2% in the summer season.

Overnight stays of European guests still in decline

The number of overnight stays of European guests continued to decline throughout the summer season.
Although the Swiss franc has been falling slightly against the Euro since the middle of the year and the
European economy has picked up, the number of overnight stays of Euro area guests continued to drop
in some cases significantly. This decrease was only partially offset by the substantial growth in guests
from overseas markets in Asia and the Arab region. According to current estimates, foreign overnight
stays declined by 0.8% in the summer season.

Further increase in overnight stays in urban areas

The shift in the tourist structure caused by the Swiss franc appreciation had different effects in the dif-
ferent regions in the summer season. Hotels in urban areas, for instance, recorded another increase in
overnight stays while the trend in the Alpine region was rather changeable. Despite robust domestic
demand, areas with a focus on holiday guests recorded lower numbers of overnight stays than in the
previous year. The trend in overnight stays in Ticino also declined.

2
Prognosen fr den Schweizer Tourismus Oktober 2015

1 International Forecasts, Developments and

Trends
Global economy expands slowly
At present, the global economic situation is modestly positive. While most advanced economies rec-
orded robust development in the first half of 2015, the situation deteriorated in a number of emerging
markets. In China, the economy slowed down even further with lower demand for imports affecting the
countrys East Asian neighbours. Numerous commodity export-dependent emerging markets are suf-
fering due to low oil and commodity prices and Brazil and Russia are still mired in deep recession. The
situation is somewhat more positive in Europe where the recovery has taken hold thanks to robust con-
sumer demand. Following a dip in the first quarter, the US economy has managed to regain a foothold.

Table 1: Global Economic Trend, 20142017

GDP Private Consumption

2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017
Switzerland 1.9% 0.9% 1.4% 1.8% 1.3% 1.2% 1.7% 1.5%
EU-28 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.4% 2.1% 1.9% 2.0%
Germany 1.6% 1.5% 1.9% 2.1% 1.0% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%
France 0.2% 1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 0.7% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%
Italy -0.4% 0.7% 1.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.6% 1.4% 1.5%
USA 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 2.4% 2.7% 3.0% 2.5% 2.1%
Figures per calendar year; Source: KOF International Forecast

European economy stabilises

The moderately positive trend followed by the global economy is expected to continue for the rest of the
year. Dynamics are unlikely to speed up before the beginning of next year. In Europe, the recovery will
continue to be propped up by private and public consumption as in the first half of 2015, with the econ-
omy benefitting further from low energy prices, low interest rates and a weak Euro. Substantial debts
and sluggish implementation of structural reforms, however, are putting a damper on dynamics. The
upswings in the USA and the UK are making headway while the emerging markets economies are likely
to remain weak for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, their growth rates will continue to exceed those
in the advanced economies.

3
Prognosen fr den Schweizer Tourismus Oktober 2015

Price reductions soften set-back in Switzerland

Following the Swiss franc appreciation caused by the suspension of the minimum exchange rate, the
Swiss economy stagnated in the first half of the year. Thanks to the companies willingness to introduce
significant price reductions, a slide into recession was avoided. In the 1st quarter, price levels in domes-
tic value added were 0.9% lower than in the previous year. After a decline in economic performance at
the beginning of the year, the 0.2% GDP growth rate in the second quarter was moderately positive.
However, due to substantial price reductions, profit margins have come under significant pressure. Alt-
hough companies benefit from cheaper intermediate inputs from the Eurozone thanks to the Swiss franc
appreciation, export-oriented companies with large domestic value added percentages are finding them-
selves in a difficult position. This is particularly true for parts of the processing industry as well as com-
panies in the tourism industry. So far, the effects of the Swiss franc shock on the domestic economy
have been limited. In the first six months of the year, the rise in unemployment was minor while employ-
ment figures went up at the same time. Private consumption, on the other hand, remained weak through-
out the first half of 2015.

Economic trend in Switzerland

Since the middle of the year, the Swiss franc has fallen slightly against the Euro, thereby taking some
pressure of domestic enterprises. All in all, however, the situation remains tense for many companies.
The average expected GDP growth rate for this year is 0.9%. Per capita GDP will, however, decline due
to a 1.1% increase in the population. In
Illustration 2: Exchange Rates with
the coming year, stable domestic con-
Forecasts
Sourcee: KOF International Forecast sumption and positive impulses from the
international environment will result in
1.80
more dynamic growth. GDP is likely to
1.60
expand by 1.4%, based on an antici-
1.40
pated Euro/CHF exchange rate of 1.10.1
1.20
Despite turbulent developments on the
1.00
Asian financial markets, for now, the
0.80
Swiss franc seems to have lost its rele-
0.60
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 vance as a safe haven currency. With
CHF / EUR CHF / GBP the Euro expected to depreciate further
CHF / USD CHF / 100 JPY
due to the anticipated interest rate rever-
sals in the USA and the UK, thanks to
the Swiss francs stable exchange relationship with the Euro, its external value will also decline against
the Dollar and the Pound.

Forecast risks
Risks that might challenge the current forecast predominantly relate to the international environment.
They include the risk of a more significant slowdown of the Chinese economy than anticipated as well
as possible recessions in emerging markets induced by low commodity prices. Despite the economic
slowdown, outbound tourism demand in China should remain substantial as the countrys transition to
a consumption and service-oriented economy is progressing. Major exchange rate fluctuations repre-
sent a downward risk which could be caused by divergent monetary policies at the international level
and the resulting sudden capital movements between countries. Last but not least, a renewed flare-up
of the Euro area crisis and associated pressure on the Swiss franc, which would have a negative impact
on outbound tourism demand in the Euro area, cannot be excluded.

1
For this forecast, both the nominal exchange rate and the price-adjusted exchange rate are utilised. Prices of tourism goods (e.g. hotel
rooms) are used for the price adjustment. Part of the Swiss franc appreciation against the Euro was offset by a more significant decline
in tourism prices in Switzerland compared to the countries outside Switzerland.

4
Prognosen fr den Schweizer Tourismus Oktober 2015

2 Swiss Tourism Forecasts

2.1 Overnight stays in hotels and spa businesses

Forecast for the 2015/2016 winter season
Further stagnation in the winter season
As in the last winter season, a positive domestic contribution to growth is likely to be juxtaposed with a
slight decline in foreign demand in the coming season. On balance, a further stagnation is expected in
the tourism industry in winter. The unfavourable price trend caused by the Swiss franc appreciation will
continue to place a strain on business with European tourists. This trend primarily affects the Alpine
region which will be recording a further drop in overnight stays. However, the other areas will also be
affected. In contrast, the forecast projects further growth in urban areas in the winter season.

Figure 3: Trend in Overnight Stays in the Winter Season

Growth rate compared to previous year's season; Source: BFS, KOF

3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-7.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Total Swiss Foreign

Domestic demand rises in winter

In the last winter season, the number of overnight stays by Swiss tourists rose by close to 2%. This
above-average increase was largely due to higher numbers of overnight stays in towns and cities while
demand for overnight stays in the Alpine region remained weak. Although growth dynamics are expected
to decline due to the sluggish domestic economy, the outlook is better than anticipated in spring. Ac-
cording to the forecast, domestic overnight stays will expand by 1% in the winter season a figure in
line with the long-term growth trend. The largest increase is expected in the urban and other areas.
Domestic demand in the Alpine region is likely to remain weak.

Further pressure through strong Swiss franc

Demand among foreign tourists was already weak in the last winter season when overnight stays rec-
orded a 1.5% decline due to lower demand from the Eurozone and Russia. In the coming winter season,
the loss of price competitiveness in Switzerlands domestic tourism industry will place a continued strain
on outbound demand in Europe. Overnight stays of German tourists are expected to drop further. The
slight improvement in the economic situation in Europe and greater demand from the UK and the USA
as well as other overseas markets will offset the drop in overnight stays by price-sensitive tourists to
some degree. In the coming winter season, the number of overnight stays by foreign tourists is expected
to contract by 0.7%.

5
Prognosen fr den Schweizer Tourismus Oktober 2015

Figure 4: Trend in Overnight Stays in the Winter Season By Region

Growth rate compared to previous year's season; Source: BFS, KOF

4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
-7.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Urban areas Alpine region Other areas

Urban areas remain attractive in winter

The positive trend in the urban areas is expected to continue in the coming winter season, generating
higher numbers of overnight stays of both Swiss and foreign tourists. According to the forecast, overnight
stays in towns and cities will expand by approx. 2%. The negative dynamics in the Alpine region, how-
ever, are likely to intensify. While the impact of the Swiss franc appreciation was still limited in the last
winter season, the loss of price competitiveness compared to destinations abroad will take full effect this
year. Nor will the minor depreciation since the middle of the year do much to improve the situation of
the Swiss winter resorts. The 1% decline in overnight stays in the Alpine region is largely due to lower
demand from neighbouring European countries. The outlook for the other areas is patchy.

Forecast for Tourist Years 20152017

Slight recovery in overnight stays during forecast period
The strong Swiss franc and the resulting weakness of the domestic economy are placing a strain on the
tourism industry in the current tourist year. After two years of recovery, this year will see another decline
in overnight stays. The effects of the Swiss franc shock are, however, less pronounced than expected
in spring. Nevertheless, some regions are recording a - in some cases serious - decline in outbound
demand in Europe. The outlook is still moderately positive. The economic recovery in Europe has picked
up speed and consumer spending is on the rise. Despite the consistent strength of the Swiss franc
against the Euro, the exchange rate situation with the Dollar is positive and a slight recovery is expected
in the coming two tourist years. Both foreign and domestic demand are expected to rise. The forecast
projects a 1.6% growth rate in 2016 which will rise to over 2% in 2017.

Domestic tourist demand provides a boost

Due to robust demand in winter and a somewhat patchy development in summer, the forecast antici-
pates a 1% increase in domestic overnight stays in the tourist year 2015. This translates into a slight
dynamic slowdown compared to the two previous years but should be considered a good result given
the economys standstill after the Swiss franc appreciation. Despite turbulent times, domestic demand
is providing crucial support for the Swiss tourism industry. The improvement in the domestic economic
trend in the coming few years will also give a boost to domestic tourist spending.

6
Prognosen fr den Schweizer Tourismus Oktober 2015

Figure 5: Trend in Overnight Stays by Tourist Year

Growth rate compared to previous year's season; Source: BFS, KOF

8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Total Swiss Foreign

Outbound demand in Germany still in decline

In the current tourist year, demand from abroad is restrained due to the substantial decline in guests
from the Euro area and Russia. The forecast anticipates a 1% drop in overnight stays of tourists from
abroad. However, the number of overnight stays should rise again in the coming year. This result is due
to various factors: On the one hand, overnight stays of German tourists, which make up a significant
percentage, are likely to continue to decline. On the other hand, this drop will be compensated by high
growth contributions made by tourists from overseas markets in Asia. Aside from China, outbound de-
mand is expected to pick up in India. According to the forecast, overnight stays of American tourists will
also maintain their upward trend.

Figure 6: Trend in Overnight Stays in the Regions by Tourist Year

Trend in Overnight Stays in the Regions by Tourist Year

8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Urban areas Alpine region Other areas

Urban areas record fastest growth

Urban areas are expected to record further significant growth in overnight stays with annual growth rates
of 2% in the coming years due, in particular, to tourists from overseas markets and the speeding up of
the European economic development. The last few years have also confirmed a rising trend in domestic
overnight stays in towns and cities. Growth dynamics in classic holiday destinations in the Alpine region,
on the other hand, remain slow, although the trend in the different regions of this aggregate is not ho-
mogeneous. For the other areas, the forecast projects rising numbers of overnight stays in the coming
two tourist years.

7
Prognosen fr den Schweizer Tourismus Oktober 2015

2.2 Tourist spending and tourism value added

Aside from the trend in overnight stays in hotels and spa businesses, another important factor consists
of the trend in the monetary parameters relating to Swiss tourism. In this context, both spending by
foreign tourists and spending by domestic travellers in Switzerland is analysed. Together, this provides
the total tourist demand figure (or gross production). The tourism gross value added is calculated by
subtracting the intermediate inputs from total tourist demand.

Temporary drop in foreign tourist spending

According to the Swiss Tourism Statistics, tourist spending by foreign travellers in Switzerland amounted
to just under CHF 16 bn last year a 2.7% increase over the previous year. The decline in foreign
guests that started at the beginning of the year is reflected in a drop in income in the tourism statistics:
Spending by foreign tourists in the first six months of 2015 declined by an annualised 3.9% compared
to the previous period. Since, due to the CHF appreciation against the Euro, prices dropped by 2% in
the same period, real spending by foreign tourists in Switzerland decreased by just under 2%. The
decline in foreign tourist spending and a substantial increase in domestic tourist spending abroad in the
first six months of 2015 have resulted in the loss of the traditional surplus in the Swiss tourism business.
Given that foreign tourism demand will continue to decline, the current calendar year is expected to
close with a total drop in income from tourism of 2.5%. Throughout the coming forecast period, growth
in foreign tourist spending will pick up slowly.

Table 2: Monetary Components of Swiss Tourism, with Forecast 20152017

2011 2012 2013 2014p 2015f 2016f 2017f

Foreign tourist spending 15186 15100 15552 15976 15584 15724 16336
(tourism exports)
Domestic tourist spending 15122 13799 15030 15141 15084 15115 15411

Total tourist spending (total tourist 30307 28899 30582 31117 30668 30893 31748
demand)
Tourism gross value added 15873 15228 15596 15825 15395 15419 15874

Growth in tourism gross value -4.1% 2.4% 1.5% -2.7% 0.2% 2.9%
added

Figures in million CHF at current prices in calendar years; p: provisional figures, f: forecast figures
Sources: BFS, KOF

Domestic tourists spend less in 2015

The domestic tourist spending figure is derived from the Tourism Satellite Account and the household
survey conducted by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (BFS). Spending is broken down according to
overnight tourists and day tourists. According to the statistics, domestic travellers spent around CHF
15.1 bn on domestic tourist services last year a 0.7% rise over the previous year. The forecast projects
stagnating domestic tourist spending due to slow domestic demand in both the current and the coming
year. Towards the end of the forecast period, further growth in domestic tourist spending is expected.

8
Prognosen fr den Schweizer Tourismus Oktober 2015

Lower tourism value added due to lower prices

According to the forecast, total demand is expected to decline by around 1.5% compared to the previous
year primarily due to lower demand from abroad. At the same time, gross value added will drop by 2.7%.
Following two forecast years with rising tourism value added in Switzerland, dynamics have slowed
down this year as a consequence of price reductions caused by the Swiss franc shock. Since it is difficult
to adjust intermediary inputs in the tourism industry in the short term, price reductions directly translate
into lower margins and hence slower growth in gross value added. As the hotel business component of
the Swiss Consumer Price Index (LIK) shows, prices were reduced specifically in the last winter season.
According to the BFS, room prices in the months from January to April of this year were on average
3.3% lower than in the previous years period. In the summer months (May to September), prices were
2.2% lower. The forecast anticipates tourism value added to stagnate next year and rise in 2017.

9
Prognosen fr den Schweizer Tourismus Oktober 2015

3 Special Analysis: Alpine Winter Sport Tourism

Comparative analysis of Swiss winter sport tourism
This special analysis sets out to examine international and national trends in Alpine winter sport tour-
ism. Based on the results, the paper will also venture a brief outlook of the coming winter season and
the medium-term trend in Switzerland.

Skier days recorded by lift facilities2, which measure visitor traffic in ski resorts, can be utilised as indi-
cators of demand in Alpine winter sport destinations. In terms of skier days, France and Austria, which
account both for one-third of all skier days in the Alpine countries (for the purposes of this study: Austria,
France, Italy, Switzerland and Germany), are home to the most prominent winter sport destinations in
the region. At 14%, Switzerlands percentage is disproportionally low. As shown by Figure 7, although
visitor traffic has largely stagnated over the last 12 years, figures have shifted between individual coun-
tries: While visitor traffic in the last winter season was similar to the 2003/2004 figures in both France
and Austria, Switzerland recorded an approx. 25% decline in skier days over the same period. Italy also
experienced a downward trend while visitor traffic in Germany rose, albeit from a low level.

Figure 7: Skier Days Recorded By Lifts in the Winter Season

Indexed: Winter season 2003/ 04 = 100; Source: SBS, KOF

140

120

100

80

60
2003/ 04 2004/ 05 2005/ 06 2006/ 07 2007/ 08 2008/ 09 2009/ 10 2010/ 11 2011/ 12 2012/ 13 2013/ 14 2014/ 15

France Austria Switzerland Italy Germany

Switzerlands winter sport tourism industry has thus lost market share to its competitors. According to
Vanat (2015)3, the continuous appreciation of the Swiss franc against the Euro since 2008 and the
associated loss of price competitiveness in Switzerland are the main reasons for this development. In-
dividual studies also show that exchange rate fluctuations have a stronger impact on winter sport tourism
than, for instance, tourism in urban areas and other areas (cf. Falk, 2014)4. Not only do foreign guests
shift to more affordable neighbouring countries, domestic demand also reacts to changes in relative
prices. In an analysis of overnight stays of Swiss tourists in ski resorts in western Austria, for instance,
Falk (2015)5 shows that a real 10% appreciation of the Swiss franc against the Euro leads to an average
15% to 22% increase in the number of Swiss tourists overnight stays in western Austria.

2
Skier days as recorded by ski lifts measure the number of users of a lift facility in a skiing region per day irrespective of the duration
and type of the lift or the price paid. Hence, skier days are an indicator of visitor traffic. The data are recorded by the members of the
national ski lift industry, in Switzerland by the Verband Seilbahnen Schweiz (SBS).
3
Vanat, Laurent: 2015 International Report on Snow & Mountain Tourism
4
Falk, Martin: The Sensitivity of Winter Tourism to Exchange Rate Changes: Evidence for the Swiss Alps, Tourism and Hospitality
Research, 0(0) 1-12, 2014.
5
Falk, Martin: The Sensitivity of Tourism Demand to Exchange Rate Changes: An Application to Swiss Overnight Stays in Austrian
Mountain Villages during the Winter Season, Current Issues in Tourism, 18(5), p. 465-476, 2015.

10
Prognosen fr den Schweizer Tourismus Oktober 2015

Figure 8: Skier Days Recorded By Lifts in the Winter Season

Indexed: Winter season 2007/ 08 = 100; Quelle: SBS, KOF

110
100
90
80
70
60
2007/ 08 2008/ 09 2009/ 10 2010/ 11 2011/ 12 2012/ 13 2013/ 14 2014/ 15

Valais Grisons Bernese Oberland Central Switzerland

Central Switzerland is only region to retain stable demand

The major tourist regions of Valais (share in total Swiss skier days: 34%), Grisons (27%), Bernese
Oberland (15%) and Central Switzerland (11%) account almost exclusively for the total skier days in
the winter season. As shown by Figure 8, Central Switzerland is the only tourist region that has man-
aged to retain stable skier days in the winter seasons. Visitor traffic in Valais, Grisons, and Bernese
Oberland have declined between 22% and 27% compared to the 2007/08 winter season. However,
aside from visitor traffic, cost-effective facilities are a further decisive factor. According to the figures
published by the Verband Seilbahnen Schweiz (SBS), turnover has declined less than the number of
skier days as turnover per ticket has increased by just under CHF 3 to CHF 31.30 since the 2004/05
season.

Table 3: Trends in Skier Days by Regions with Forecast

2010/ 11 2011/ 12 2012/ 13 2013/ 14 2014/ 15 2015/ 16 2016/ 17

Alpine region -4.2% -6.5% 3.3% -4.3% -6.0% -1.4% -0.3%
Valais -8.7% -3.9% 4.3% -5.6% -4.6% -1.3% -1.3%
Grisons -3.2% -10.0% 2.4% -1.7% -10.2% -4.9% -1.2%
Bernese Oberland -3.9% -4.6% 0.8% -8.4% -7.2% 3.1% 0.0%
Central Switzerland 9.8% -8.2% 6.4% -0.1% 3.0% 0.7% 4.2%
Sources: SBS, KOF

Outlook
Visitor traffic in the Alpine winter sport destinations is composed of day tourists, tourists staying in hotel
accommodation and tourists staying in non-hotel accommodation. Although overnight stays in hotels
and spa businesses cover only one of these three categories, they still serve as an indicator of the trend
in visitor traffic. Based on the forecast of overnight stays, skier days in the Swiss Alpine region are
expected to decline by 1.4% in the coming winter season. A drop of 0.3% is projected for the 2016/17
winter season. While visitor traffic will decline in Valais and Grisons, Bernese Oberland and Central
Switzerland are set for slow growth.

11
Prognosen fr den Schweizer Tourismus Oktober 2015

Appendix - Tables

Table A1: Forecast of Overnight Stays Broken Down By Tourist Season and Country of Origin

Winter Summer Winter Summer Winter Summer

2014/15 2015 2015/16 2016 2016/17 2017
Total 0.1% -0.3% 0.1% 2.6% 1.8% 2.4%
Swiss guests 1.9% 0.2% 1.1% 1.5% 2.1% 1.7%
Foreign guests -1.4% -0.8% -0.7% 3.4% 1.4% 2.9%
Germany -5.8% -14.8% -9.7% 0.6% -3.4% -3.8%
UK -1.0% -0.9% 1.7% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0%
USA 6.0% 5.7% 6.8% 7.0% 6.9% 5.1%
France -6.6% -4.8% 4.1% 7.5% 3.4% 1.9%
Italy -2.4% -10.4% -2.7% 10.6% 5.6% 5.1%
Other countries abroad 0.7% 4.9% 1.6% 2.6% 2.1% 5.0%

Table A2: Historical Data and Forecast of Overnight Stays Broken Down By Tourist Year and Country
of Origin
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total -2.8% 2.5% 0.9% -0.2% 1.5% 2.1%
Swiss guests -0.7% 1.4% 0.8% 1.0% 1.3% 1.9%
Foreign guests -4.4% 3.5% 1.0% -1.1% 1.7% 2.3%
Germany -13.1% -0.7% -3.8% -10.7% -4.4% -3.7%
UK -9.9% 5.2% 2.0% -0.9% 2.9% 0.1%
USA 1.7% 3.6% 4.1% 5.8% 6.9% 5.7%
France -6.3% 2.1% 0.6% -5.7% 5.8% 2.7%
Italy -4.8% 1.5% 2.5% -6.5% 3.9% 5.4%
Other countries abroad 1.2% 5.8% 2.5% 3.3% 2.2% 3.9%

Table A3: Forecast of Overnight Stays Broken Down By Tourist Season and Region

Winter Summer Winter Summer Winter Summer

2014/15 2015 2015/16 2016 2016/17 2017
Alpine region -0.7% -0.6% -1.1% 2.1% 0.0% 1.4%
Urban areas 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.4% 3.5% 3.7%
Other areas -2.3% -4.8% -1.2% 3.8% 3.0% 2.1%
Grisons -2.6% -6.2% -4.0% 2.7% -1.0% -0.5%
Bernese Oberland -0.2% 1.9% 2.5% 3.0% 0.0% 2.1%
Central Switzerland 6.6% 3.7% 0.6% 1.9% 3.4% 4.1%
Valais -2.9% -1.8% -1.0% 0.6% -1.0% -0.8%
Ticino -3.8% -6.4% 3.5% 3.6% -0.7% 1.8%
Waadt -0.7% 1.5% 4.1% 2.5% 4.2% 2.2%

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Prognosen fr den Schweizer Tourismus Oktober 2015

Table A4: Historical Data and Forecast of Overnight Stays Broken Down By Tourist Year and Region

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Alpine region -5.0% 1.8% 0.5% -0.6% 0.6% 0.7%
Urban areas -0.6% 3.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 3.6%
Other areas -1.4% 2.6% -0.7% -3.9% 2.0% 2.4%
Grisons -7.6% 2.1% -1.4% -4.2% -1.1% -0.8%
Bernese Oberland -5.5% 4.9% 1.2% 1.1% 2.8% 1.3%
Central Switzerland -2.2% 3.3% 3.1% 4.8% 1.4% 3.8%
Valais -3.2% -2.3% 0.0% -2.4% -0.2% -0.9%
Ticino -3.7% 5.3% -3.5% -5.7% 3.6% 1.1%
Waadt -4.9% 5.8% 2.3% 0.6% 3.2% 3.0%

Average in/decrease in number of overnight stays in hotels and spa businesses compared to the previ-
ous period, in per cent; historical data and forecast (shaded area)

Sources: BFS, KOF

Methodological notes

Tourist year: From November of the previous calendar year to October

Winter season: From November to April

Summer season: From May to October

Alpine region: Tourist regions consisting of Bernese Oberland, Grisons, Valais and Central Switzerland

Urban areas: Tourist regions consisting of Basel, Bern, Geneva, Waadt and Zurich

Other areas: Tourist regions consisting of Aargau, Fribourg, Jura and Three Lakes, Eastern Switzerland

and Ticino

KOF Tourism Forecasts are compiled on behalf of the State Secretariat for Economic Af-
fairs (SECO). Thanks to the Swiss Federal Act on the Promotion of Innovation, Coopera-
tion and Knowledge Creation in Tourism (Innotour), SECO is now in a position to fund
tourism forecasts which are primarily intended for the Swiss tourist industry and the Swiss
cantons.

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