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CALGARY ELECTION 2017

EMBARGOED UNTIL:
6 AM MST, OCT 7, 2017
PRINT EXCLUSIVE:
POSTMEDIA NETWORK
PRODUCED FOR:
CALGARY HERALD
& CALGARY SUN
Methodology About Mainstreet
Mainstreet surveyed a random stratied sample of With 20 years of political experience at all three
1,500 Calgarians October 3-4, 2017 through levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Chimera IVR. Respondents were screened to Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
conrm voting eligibility. Landline and Cell lines public aairs.
were included. Responses were weighted using
demographic and geographic information to Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
targets based on the 2016 Census. Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
The margin of error for survey results is 2.53 government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
percentage points, 19 times out of 20. government in British Columbia and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal
. majority government in the 2015 federal election.

Contact Information
In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Montreal: David Valentin, Executive Vice


President. david@mainstreetresearch.ca

In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President


joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

Find us online at:


www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
TESTED IN CALGARY - PROVEN ACCURATE

CALGARY GREENWAY BY ELECTION


Poll conducted 13 days before Election Day; Margin of Error +/- 4.26%

MOST ACCURATE POLLSTER OF GREENWAY BY ELECTION


TESTED IN CALGARY - PROVEN ACCURATE

CALGARY FOOTHILLS BY ELECTION


Poll conducted two weeks before Election Day; Margin of Error +/- 4.18%

MOST ACCURATE POLLSTER OF FOOTHILLS BY ELECTION


CALGARYS NEXT MAYOR IS...

October 7, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll produced for the Calgary Herald &
Calgary Sun nds Bill Smith leading in the race to become Calgarys next mayor. The Mainstreet/Postmedia
poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Naheed Nenshi's path to victory on October 16th is growing thinner, said Quito Maggi, President of
Mainstreet Research. With time running short, the former World's Greatest Mayor faces a growing decit
that will be hard to overcome. He now trails newcomer and main opponent, Bill Smith by 17 percentage
points, that lead has increased from last week by 8.

These numbers point to the near certain election of Bill Smith on October 16th and the growing divide may
signal a seismic shift in Calgary civic politics. What the eect may be on down ballot candidates is
impossible to say from this data, but it's likely Nenshi will not be the only incumbent to be the victim of this
change election. One thing is clear, the vote split with Andre Chabot that some have raised as a possible
path to victory for Nenshi is no longer a factor. Chabot is a distant third at just 6% and this two-horse race
continues to solidify, with Smith extending a healthy lead.

As the certainty of a Bill Smith election becomes clearer, the risks increase again on the frontrunner and
any late mistakes could reverse the gains of the past week. But while Calgarians begin to vote in advance
polls, the Smith campaign continues to peak.

Its important to remember that candidates can out perform their polling numbers. Strong
Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) campaigns can make a dierence - but theres only so much those campaigns
can accomplish. In tight races they can make a dierence but this is looking less competitive by the week,
nished Maggi.

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For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

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