dislike rather than a material disdain, although the
world does seems to like the Canadian, the Australian
and the New Zealand dollars, as well as the British
Pound Sterling. Thus, this is not a rush away from the
English speaking currencies, but is a quiet move away
from US dollars as the US position on debt reduction
was quietly cast aside and as the US’ once clear
dominance at these sorts of meetings has been even
     more clearly usurped by the collective rather than by
Monday, June 28th, 2010              any one individual nation.
Dennis Gartman: Editor/Publisher                           
One comes away from the G-meetings with the sense
Phone 757‐238‐9346    Fax 757‐238‐9546               
that the US is in eclipse; that the better times are
Email dennis@thegartmanletter.com                   
behind us and that the world senses that shift. One
London Sales: Donald Berman, Alberdon International                       
Phone: 011 44(0) 79 8622 1110  senses that the US is no longer seen as the quality,
dependable, all-powerful ally or force in the world that it
once was, and that money is looking for somewhere
else it can move to for safety,
GOLD COMPARED TO THE  and it may be quite some
NASDAQ AND COMPARED  while before the final
TO ITS OWN PAST: This very  decision is made as to where
interesting chart, courtesy of The 
Aden Sisters, compares gold to  or to what that might be.
what it did itself back in ’68‐’80 
and to the NASDAQ in the great  Before we go into what
bull tech bull market of ’88‐’00, 
happened at the G-
noting that markets begin quietly 
and end in parabolic moves  meetings… or more properly
higher. The “parabolic” lies ahead.  what did not happen… we
note that the G20 really is
very strange name for this “organisation. Rather like
OVERNIGHT NEWS:  the fact that the Big 10 college conference no longer
has 10 members, but instead has 12, and the Big 12
THE G-MEETINGS ARE OVER AND Conference no longer shall have 12 members but shall
soon have 16, the G20 has more than 20 members in
THE WORLD DOESN’T LIKE US$’S
that the European Union is a “member” and the
although the dislike is not rabid; rather it is a sense of
European Union is also represented by Germany,
sad bearishness… a sense of bearish ennui… a quiet
France, Italy and the UK. The G8 is comprised of the
US, the UK; Germany;
THE UBS BLOOMBERG;  France; Italy; Canada;
THE S&P GSCI; THE  Japan and Russia. The
RJ/CRB COMMODITY 
G20 has these members
AND THE ROGER’S INT’L 
plus, Argentina; Australia;
COMMODITY INDICES:  
Not A Bull Market At The  Brazil; China; India;
Moment:  The world might  Indonesia; Mexico; Saudi
want to be bullish of  Arabia; S. Africa; S. Korea;
commodities generally, but the 
Turkey and the European
bullish trend line was broken 
two months ago and it will  Union.
take several months to repair 
the damage done. 

Clearly the importance of the G8 is falling relative to
that of the G20, for where the G7 (the name of the
organisation before the inclusion of Russia a decade or
so ago) was once nearly 65% of the world’s economic
output, it has fallen to 40% on a purchasing parity
power comparison. The G20 has approximately 90% of
the world’s GDP and nearly 2/3rds of the world’s
population. The meeting this weekend will be
continued with a meeting in Seoul, S. Korea in
November… another wonderful way for the nation’s of
the world to squander several tens of billions of dollars
on unnecessary travel and other expenses, including
putting the world’s political leaders in jeopardy of some
terrorist attack.
The only major decision arrived at at the meetings was
a general repudiation of the US’ position that further
deficit spending shall be needed, at least for the
foreseeable future, to assure the continued strength of
the global economy. The European nations staked out
the position that austerity rather than government
spending programs of the past are instead to be the
order of the day, and from the language of the rather
long post-meeting communiqué (20 pages of rather
tightly spaced print! All of which we shall try to read
sometime later today as time shall allow) the European
position has won the day. Section 10-12 of the
communiqué [Ed. Note: There are 24 sections in all.]
are the “meat” of the communiqué and they say
We are committed to taking concerted actions to
sustain the recovery, create jobs and to achieve
stronger, more sustainable and more balanced
growth. These will be differentiated and tailored to
national circumstances. We agreed today on:
• Following through on fiscal stimulus and
communicating “growth friendly” fiscal
consolidation plans in advanced countries
that will be implemented going forward.
Sound fiscal finances are essential to
sustain recovery, provide flexibility to
respond to new shocks, ensure the
capacity to meet the challenges of aging
populations, and avoid leaving future
generations with a legacy of deficits and
debt. The path of adjustment must be
carefully calibrated to sustain the recovery
in private demand. There is a risk that
synchronized fiscal adjustment across
several major economies could adversely
impact the recovery. There is also a risk
that the failure to implement consolidation
where necessary would undermine
confidence and hamper growth. Reflecting
this balance, advanced economies have
committed to fiscal plans that will at least
halve deficits by 2013 and stabilize or
reduce government debt-to-GDP ratios by
2016. Recognizing the circumstances of
Japan, we welcome the Japanese
government’s fiscal consolidation plan
announced recently with their growth
strategy. Those with serious fiscal
challenges need to accelerate the pace of
consolidation. Fiscal consolidation plans will
be credible, clearly communicated,
differentiated to national circumstances,
and focused on measures to foster
economic growth.
• Strengthening social safety nets,
enhancing corporate governance reform,
financial market development,
infrastructure spending, and greater
exchange rate flexibility in some emerging
markets;
• Pursuing structural reforms across the
entire G-20 membership to increase and
sustain our growth prospects; and
• Making more progress on rebalancing
global demand.
Monetary policy will continue to be appropriate to
achieve price stability and thereby contribute to
the recovery.
11. Advanced deficit countries should take actions
to boost national savings while maintaining open
markets and enhancing export competitiveness.
12. Surplus economies will undertake reforms to
reduce their reliance on external demand and
focus more on domestic sources of growth.
The 2nd sentence in the first paragraph above sets the
tone: the “actions… will be differentiated and tailored to
national circumstances.” Note in the first “bullet point”
in Section 10 that the “advanced economies have
committed to fiscal plans that will at least halve deficits
by 2013 and stabilize or reduce government debt-to-
GDP ratios by 2016.” This is where the US lost the
debate and German/France/Belgium/the Netherlands
won. This is also what bothers us the most about the
meeting and the decisions arrived at, for we are of the
opinion that the global economy is still not fully on the
mend and that movements to both increase taxes and

cut spending are ill advised at this point. As we have
said, we would strongly support decisions to cut
spending modestly and to cut spending even more
aggressively once the global economy is clearly on the
mend, but cutting spending AND raising taxes smacks
of the policies of the 30’s. Nonetheless, this is what the
G-nations have decided to do, and it is our duty to
understand that and to create trades and make
investments accordingly [Ed. Note: The communiqué
went on to discuss “bank capital,” “accountability” and
“transparency,” “financial sector reform,” the reforms of
“international financial institutions and development,”
and more. We shall write about those things as the
week progresses; for now, the important notion is the
endorsement of taxation and spending cuts. They
trump all else
Finally, concerning the G20 meeting, we found it
interesting that there was no mention of the recent
action taken by China to more freely float the
Renminbi, even though an initial communiqué
appeared to have several lines congratulating China on
its decision. These two lines were later taken out of the
final communiqué… interestingly at China’ behest, and
not, as some have suggested, that the other members
of the organisation felt that China’ currency move to
was “too little; too late.” China instead wanted no
mention made of its actions, preferring not to be
mentioned at all. Apparently the Chinese monetary
authorities believe that the currency decision was
simply one more step... and not all that important a
step… toward modernizing China’ economy. To have
focused upon the currency decision this time would
have put further focus upon the currency in the future,
according to Beijing. Rather than facing further
pressure, China preferred having nothing said. In
retrospect, this is wisdom on China’s part, so at least
one thing came out of the meetings that we find worthy
of note and worthy of our applause. Interesting, we are
applauding something that actually didn’t happen, and
that we think is the essence of good conservative
thought: the less done, usually, the better. :
      06/28    06/25
Mkt Current Prev US$Change
Japan 89.35 89.65 - .30 Yen
EC 1.2358 1.2301 - .57 Cents
Switz 1.0865 1.1015 - 1.50 Centimes
UK 1.5035 1.4885 - 1.50 Pence
C$ 1.0355 1.0425 - .80 Cents
A$ .8725 .8615 - 1.10 Cents
NZ$ .7065 .7035 - .30 Cents
Mexico 12.64 12.73 - .09 Centavos
Brazil 1.7770 1.7820 - .50 Centavos
Russia 30.98 31.06 - .08 Rubles
China 6.7896 6.7896 - 2.06 Renminbi
India 46.13 46.52 - .39 Rupees
Prices "marked" at 09:15 GMT
Turning to the economic news of the day, we note
firstly that GDP for the 1st quarter was revised
downward from 3.0% to 2.7% and that was a bit of a
disappointment obviously. We, however, pay very little
heed to revisions in GDP for these are old, outdated
numbers and the market’s duty is to look forward, not
backward. We grant the rights to dissect these out-
dated GDP numbers of Ph.D. candidates in Economics
at obscure universities; we’ve other things to do.
The big news this week shall of course be the release
of the Employment Situation Report to be released on
Friday, July 1st when practically no one shall be around
in the US markets given that Monday is July 4th and al
of our markets shall be closed. The propensity on the
part of traders to make this a very, very long weekend
shall be high. At this point, we shall all soon be talking
about the effect of the cuts in census workers which
bloated last month’s number to the upside and which
will implode this month’s number. The consensus is for
non-farm payrolls to be down approximately 150
thousand, but we have our doubts, fearing instead that
they may be much, much worse than that. Our initial
work suggests that non-farm payrolls could be down
200-225 thousand. Too, the “Birth/death” adjustment
factor during the summer tends to be quite large, and
will add something on the order of 150-225 thousand
jobs to the raw data, creating more, not less confusion.
COMMODITIES PRICES ARE FIRM
but not violently so. They are moving higher once
again as the US dollar is moving lower, and that is
reasonable and normal. The precious metals are
perhaps the strongest areas of the commodity market,
although energy prices too are quite strong, with the
latter being bit higher late last week… and quietly

holding that strength this morning… because of the
new weather problems in the Gulf of Mexico (more on
that below in our section on energy of course).
However, the chart at the bottom left of p.1 (courtesy of
Bloomberg.com) of four commodity market indices
suggests to us that the bull market in commodity prices
came to an end, or is at the very least going through a
rather large and time consuming
consolidation phase, and that
erring on the side of overt Corn Yields/acre
bullishness shall not serve us well.
The focus in the grain markets this
week shall be on the USDA’s
acreage report due out
Wednesday morning. For the
moment, we can assume that corn acreage will be very
modestly larger than was initially reported in March;
that acreage planted to soybeans also shall be
marginally larger than reported in March, but that
acreage planted to all wheat will be very slightly lower.
We can begin “working” with the consensus “guesst-
imate” of 89.3 million acres for corn; 78.3 million acres
to be planted to soybeans and for 53.7 million acres
planted to wheat. These shall compare to 86.5 million
acres of corn planted last year; 77.5 million acres
planted to soybeans and 59.1 million acres planted to
all wheat.
Once the USDA acreage report is out of the way, the
markets will begin to focus upon the most important
weather period of the year: that just after July 4th when
the corn is soon to be pollinating and the beans will
soon be setting pods. Thus far this year the weather
can be classified as “warm and wet,” and crops as
graded by the USDA on a weekly basis are off to
excellent starts. All may change, however, after the 4th,
for the inordinately hot weather that has prevailed in
the past several weeks, were it to continue, would have
very real and very bullish impacts upon prices. The
USDA is forecasting corn yields of 163.5/bushels/acre
for corn, and even a 1-2 bushel/acre cut in yields would
have a demonstrably bullish effect. In the past several
years corn yield/acre have been increasing at an
average of 2.7 bushels/acre every year. Even then, the
163.5 bushels/acre estimate that the USDA has put
forth is a bit above trend. To achieve that goal shall
mean good… and continued… weather through July
and August, on into the harvest.
Finally, for those with an interest in cotton, we need to
pay attention not only to the USDA’s report on
Wednesday, but on the weather. Tropical Storm Alex
(more on which below in our
discussion on energy) may be making
its way into Mexico and/or very
southern Texas late this week. The
cotton crop down near Harlingen,
Texas may either be badly damaged if
the winds are serious, or it may be
benefitted if the storm veers to the
south, bringing only modest winds and
a good soaking of rain. Bob Dylan once said that “You
don’t need a weatherman to know the way the wind
blows,” However, you do need a weatherman to trade
cotton this week. Remember also, the crop from
southern Texas usually is deliverable against “old crop”
October futures and prices off that contract rather than
from the more normally followed “new crop” December:
06/28 06/25
Gold 1253.0 1243.7 + 9.30
Silver 19.05 18.65 + .40
Pallad 480.00 470.00 +10.00
Plat 1586.0 1558.0 +28.00
GSR 65.75 66.70 - .95
Reuters 265.61 261.62 + 1.5%
DJUBS 128.75 127.11 + 1.3%
Turning to the gold market, we remain, as we have
been for many months overtly bullish of gold, although
we shall have to admit that heretofore we’ve not been
bullish of gold in US dollar terms, but have instead
been bullish of it in foreign currency terms and
primarily in EUR terms. The problems attendant to the
European Union have weighed heavily upon the EUR,
and have helped our investment position accordingly.
Gold has risen from approximately €650 mid-summer
last year to €1015 this morning. That is an increase of
just a bit more than 55%. At the same time, gold has
risen from US$910 in June of last year to $1255 as we
write… a solid bull run of course, but at 38% far behind
that of gold in EUR terms. Gold in British Pound
Sterling terms has risen from £555 a year ago to £835
this morning; an increase of 50%, and again far
stronger than gold in US dollar terms.
However, after the “G-meetings” this weekend and
following the quiet, but rather obvious,
disdain/disrespect/dismay that the world shows for the
US government we can imagine… or fear… that gold
shall begin to strengthen more in US dollar terms than
it has in foreign currency terms. We can imagine in the
not too distant future either adding to our long positions
in gold in US dollar terms, holding that which we
already own in EURs and Yen et al.
Finally, we draw everyone’s attention to the chart at the
upper left of p.1 this morning by our friends, Pam and
Mary Ann Aden. We have argued in the past that many
markets, and especially the commodity markets, move
along rather common paths. Bull markets almost
always begin quietly and end in parabolic ascents. As
we’ve said many times in years past, over 50% or
more of a bull run comes in the last 10% of the time
frame of that market, and one gets the sense that that
shall happen in the gold market… again… at some
point in the future. It may be worth keeping this chart in
mind in the coming weeks and months.
subsiding… a bit.
Over the weekend, the Secretary General of OPEC,
Mr. Abdullah al-Badri said that he was quite
comfortable with the current level of crude oil prices.
Mr. Al-Badri was in Brussels to meet with the EC’s
Energy Commissioner, Mr. Guenther Oettinger.
Interestingly, despite being “comfortable” with the level
of prices, he is uncomfortable with the level of
inventories, noting that
When you look at the inventory overhand and
floating storage… about 244 million barrels…
that means there is a lot of oil in the market; an
oversupply. We need more discipline.
Obviously, Mr. al-Badri has been paying attention to
the contango in Brent and WTI crude, otherwise he
might not have mentioned the “overhang” of supplies.
Too, he took President Obama to task for his decision
to suspend all offshore drilling for six months. As Mr.
Al-Badri said
President Obama is in limbo; he is not certain
there is the regulation to prevent another
accident, so he took that decision. I hope after
the six months he will revisit his decision and
let things get back to normal.

CRUDE OIL AND NAT-GAS ARE If Mr. al-Badri hopes for things to get back to normal,
so too do we! So indeed do we:
STRONG compared to where they stood early
Friday morning when we last marked prices here. AugWTI up 226 78.58-63
However, they’ve fallen from their highs and the SepWTI up 219 79.15-20
weather situation in the Gulf is obviously on everyone’s OctWTI up 215 79.62-67
NovWTI up 210 80.10-15
mind. For now, however, it appears that Tropical Storm DecWTI up 209 80.56-61
Alex will not likely do any damage nor cause any Jan WTI up 206 80.93-98
material problems unless it were to turn suddenly in a FebWTI up 204 81.25-30
OPEC Basket $74.08 06/23
new, northerly and easterly direction or a decidedly
Henry Hub Nat-gas $4.92
more southern one. Were it to move southerly, it would
skirt into the areas in the Gulf where PEMEX has its Finally, we find it interesting that nearby WTI is trading
major drilling and production essentially where it was last Monday morning
operations; however PEMEX but the contango has narrowed rather
yesterday reported that it had not appreciably. Then the average for Brent and
shuttered in any of its platforms in WTI for August’10/”red” August’11 was $5.22;
the Gulf of Mexico… yet. It may this morning it is one dollar narrower, at $4.22.
still, but for now the fears that We find it interesting that the contango has
were pushing crude oil prices $2/ narrowed that much and yet the effect upon the
barrel higher on Friday are flat price is negligible. It would appear that some
of the crude aboard ships predicated upon
 
 
taking advantage of the wide carrying charges while being short of high-beta, low dividend payers
available a short while ago may soon be coming back instead. Being long of the P&Gs, the AT&T’s, the IBMs,
on the market as these contangos narrow and it shall the large cap energies and the nat-gas trusts while
be economically wise to put the crude into the market being short high-techs like Adobe or RIMM seems to
and unwind the positions. . us to make common, investment sense at the moment.
We might even consider being quietly net short of
EQUITIES PRICES AROUND THE equities for a while:
WORLD ARE STABLE ahead of and now Dow Indus down 8 10,144
following the “G-meetings” this weekend in Canada. CanS&P/TSE up 38 11,708
Our Int’l Index has risen 13 “points,” or 0.2%, but it FTSE down 64 5,045
CAC down 35 3,520
remains down 5.6% for the year-to-date, and we still DAX down 44 6,071
believe that the trend is down and that we shall do NIKKEI down 44 9,693
better by selling strength rather than buying weakness HangSeng up 154 20,763
AusSP/AX down 32 4,385
going forward. We are more and more fearful that the
Shanghai down 8 2,539
monetary authorities are erring very badly in their urge Brazil up 823 64,823
to both curtail spending while raising taxes, intent TGL INDEX up 0.2% 7,417 .
solely it seems on becoming fiscally frugal. Would that
the authorities had decided simply to cut spending ON THE POLITICAL FRONT the hearings
modestly at the G-meetings this past weekend. Had for the senate confirmation hearings of Ms. Kagan to
they chosen that path we’d find our way easily toward the Supreme Court begin today, and let us understand
equity market bullishness; but the fact is that they’ve that Mr. Kagan will of course be confirmed, although
chosen to cut spending AND to raise taxes, and that not without some very real questioning by the Senators
we find fiscally ill-advised. on the right. She will be questioned on her belief that
the Constitution is a “living” document and that
We are all the more disconcerted by the fact that the
believing too literally upon the meaning and intention of
S&P index has failed rather badly at its 200 day
the Founding Fathers is ill-advised. We are obviously
moving average. Having fallen below that moving
not Constitutional scholars here at TGL, although we
average back in May for a short while, and causing us
do keep our copy of the Constitution close at hand and
concern then, the Index rallied back above it for a few
do refer to it regularly. For example, we scoured the
days in mid-June, but the volume was tepid at best and
Constitution two weeks ago when President Obama
anemic at worst. Since then it has fallen back below
demanded of BP that it create at $20 billion fund to be
that all-important moving average, and as it has fallen
used to recompense the victims of the spill there,
the volume has tended on balance to rise. Thus we are
wondering where in the Constitution approval for such
watching a market fail at an important moving
Presidential extension of power could be found. Try as
average… one that we think defines the major trend…
we might we found no references anywhere to such
and we are watching a market that rallies on small
Presidential powers.
volume and weakens on large. Perhaps as ominously,
the technicians among us would call our attention to
George Will… in our opinion the lantern carrier for the
the fact that the RIS and MACD have both failed to
light of the centre-right here in the US now that William
make new highs, and are failing in recent weeks at
F. Buckley is gone… had a very interesting series of
new, lower highs while having made newer and lower
questions that should be put to Ms. Kagan, not the
lows.
least of which was our question, and we strongly
In all, we think we shall do well to err decidedly upon recommend that those of our clients with an interest in
the bearish side of the ledger going forward, buying such things read Mr. Will’s questions, for they do raise
defensive, low beta, high dividend paying equities concerns. Nonetheless, none of these questions likely
shall be asked, and Ms. Kagan will be confirmed,

probably by a vote of 70-30 or so, if not larger. The
President of the United States, no matter who he is,
has the right under the Constitution to have his
appointees on the Court approved, unless any
appointee is very clearly incapable of doing his or her
job as a Justice. Thus despite our antipathy toward her
philosophies and despite the fact that she has never
before been a judge, Ms. Kagan will sit on the bench
this coming October… but not until several Republican
Senators embarrass themselves while one or at best
two prove their merit with insightful questioning of the
candidate.
GENERAL COMMENTS
ON THE CAPITAL MARKETS
THE UK BUDGET: THE MARKET
LIKED IT ANYWAY: We are not all that
impressed by the Budget that Mr. Osborne, the new
Chancellor of the Exchequer of Her Majesty’s
government, has proposed, but that is unimportant.
What is important is that the market liked Mr.
Osborne’s budget if we are to measure its like or
dislike by how the market responded to it when pricing
Sterling. Just ahead of Mr. Osborne carrying that
battered old brief case that all Chancellor’s take to the
Parliament from 10 Downing Street when presenting
their budgets, sterling was trading off a bit toward
1.4800 vs. the US dollar; however as he spoke mid-
week last week Sterling began to catch a stronger bid,
rising relative to the EUR and relative to the US dollar.
It rose 1.0% vs. the dollar and 0.5% vs. the EUR, and
we were much impressed. Interestingly, yields on
British gilts fell.
Mr. Osborne has promised to cut the corporate income
tax by 4 percentage points over the next four years,
and that we strongly applaud. Further, he is cutting
welfare spending, which we also applaud. Mr.
Osborne has also promised that he will do what he can
to cut capital gains taxes on projects brought to the
market by entrepreneurs, and of course we shall
applaud that too. However, we would much prefer that
he followed Russia’s lead and cut capital gains taxes
across the board in catholic terms rather than parochial
and specific terms. Indeed, we are somewhat
dismayed that in allowing for better treatment of capital
gains on the part of new start ups, this budget is
proposing raising the over-all capital gains tax from
18% at present to 28%! But any move in the right
direction is better than any move in the wrong, and
these generally are moves in the right direction.
England has a long way to go to become fiscally
responsible, for it was only eight years ago that Her
Majesty’s government ran a net debt to GDP ratio of
approximately 30%. It is now approaching 65%.
Further, the government projects that its deficit/GDP
ratio this year alone shall be north of 9% and may
approach 10%. By comparison, Greece has “only” a
deficit/GDP ratio of a bit more than 6%; Spain’s is but
5% and Germany’s is just under 4%.
Welfare spending in both nominal and inflation
adjusted terms has been on a tear in the past fifty
years in the UK, and it has become quite nearly
intolerable. Back in the late 40’s, in inflation adjusted
terms HM’s government spent approximately 1/20th of
what it is spending today, and the trend has been
relentlessly upward. Indeed except for two rather brief
periods back in the 80’s and 90’s each year was higher
than the previous year’s spending, and in recent years
it has progressed at a steadily more severe angle
upward. Back in the mid-80’s, Britain’s debt as a
percentage of GDP was just over 40%; it fell to 25% by
the early 90’s, rose a bit in the middle’90’s to again
over 40%; fell again around the turn of the century to
30% and has been rising steadily since, moving to
levels noted above, approaching 65%.
Clearly HM’s Treasury has its work cut out for it, but
thus far the first budget is better than the market had
feared and Mr. Cameron and Mr. Osborne have
survived their first test in office.
RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Long of Three Units of the C$ and
Three of the Aussie$/short of Six Units of
the EUR: Twenty six weeks ago we bought the C$ and sold the
EUR with the cross trading 1.5875. Twenty five weeks ago we added
to the trade at or near 1.5100, and seventeen weeks ago we added
yet again, giving us an average price of 1.5250. The cross is trading
this morning at 1.2835. Eighteen weeks ago we bought the A$ and
we sold the EUR at or near .6417. It is this morning .7005. Friday of
two weeks ago we added to the long Canada/short EUR position

upon receipt of this commentary. As we wrote the cross was trading
1.2510 and the trend is clearly in Canada’s favour.
2. Long of Three Units of Gold: Two Each
vs. the EUR and One vs. the Japanese
Yen: On Thursday, May 20th, we returned to our long gold/short
EUR position. Gold was then trading €961. We added to the position
Friday of two weeks ago giving us an average of EUR 968.6. Gold in
EUR terms this morning is trading €1014.
rd
Thursday, June 3 we bought One Unit of gold in Yen terms upon
receipt of this commentary. At the time, gold was trading ¥113,250. It
is this morning trading ¥111,866.
3. Long of One Unit of the Ten Year Note:
The world is bearish of bonds it seems, and yet bonds do not break.
Something that won’t break when it ought should be owned, and so
we bought the Ten year note Thursday of two weeks ago upon
receipt of this commentary with the trade done somewhere near 120
¼. We have stops at 119 5/8ths and we shall sit tight with those
stops. There were in jeopardy early last week; they are not now,
and indeed we are considering when we need to add to this trade!!
4. Long of One Unit of the C$ vs. the US$:
We bought the C$ relative to the US dollar upon receipt of this
th
commentary Thursday, June 24 , and for the moment at least it
appears that we’ve been rather fortunate. As we wrote the C$ was
trading 1.0400; our risk is a close by the US dollar above 1.0450 and
we look for “parity and beyond” in the coming weeks and months.
We note that the US$ did trade to 1.0465 for a few moments
Thursday, but by the close of trading in N. America it was back below
1.0425 and we remain long of the C$ as a result. We’ll hold our stop
at the same place.
The following is not a recommendation, a solicitation or an offer to
sell the securities and reflects publicly available pricing information
provided for informational purposes only. The Gartman Letter
L.C. serves as a sub adviser to the products mentioned below.
Investors in the CIBC Gartman Global Allocation Deposit Notes
should go to:
https://www.cibcppn.com/ScreensCA/CANProductUnderlyings.aspx?
ProductID=221&NumFixings=2
Existing investors in HAG should go to:
http://204.225.175.211/betapro/fundprofile_hap.aspx?f=HAG
The following positions are “indications” only of what we hold in our
ETF in Canada, the Horizon’s AlphaPro Gartman Fund, at the end of
trading yesterday. We reserve the right to change our
opinions at any time and at a moment’s notice and we
reserve the right to take positions opposite of what may
be in our “Notes” and ETF from time to time as market
conditions warrant:
Long: We are long of an “Asian” short term government bond
fund. Further, we are still long of the C$; long of gold; of Steven
Jobs; of a movie rental company; of a service provider to the nat-gas
industry. We are also long of a low end retailer. Two weeks we
began buying a large US chemical company as its shares broke out
to the upside and whose dividend is ample and very well covered.
Short: We’re short Sterling, short of the EUR and short too of
the Yen. We’re also short of a major broking/trading firm that has
and will have Congress on its back… perhaps for years… and we’ve
gotten shorter of it. We are also short of the maker of Blackberries
and of the major “search engine.” Further, for the past several days
we’ve been short of an on-line travel and hotel reservation company.
In our Canadian “Notes” our positions, as of the start of this month
are:
Long: 15% gold; 10% silver; 15% Canadian; 10% Australian
dollars and also long of 5% US Ten year notes and 5% WTI crude.
Short: 15% EURs; 15% Pounds sterling; and 10% Yen.
Horizons AlphaPro Gartman Fund (TSX:HAG):
Yesterday’s Closing Price on the TSX: $8.99 vs. $8.99
Yesterday’s Closing NAV: $9.05 vs. $9.05
CIBC Gartman Global Allocation Deposit Notes Series 1-4;
The Gartman Index: 116.20 vs. 116.00 previously; and
The Gartman Index II: 93.80 vs. 94.63 previously.
We will be making changes to the portfolio in our notes this
week, and although they are not material, they are greater than
were the changes made at the end of last month. We shall
report those changes sometime later this week or very early
next week in order to remain as transparent as we are able
Unofficially for May the NAV of ETF in Canada closed at $8.98 while
the unofficial “average” close for our notes was 103.85. As of last
night the NAV of our ETF was up $0.07 or 0.8% and the average
price of our “notes” is up 1.1% month-to-date.
For the year-to-date, the NAVA of HAG.TO is up 0.55%, which when
compared to the NASDAQ, or the SP or our TGL Int’l” Index is quite
good; but +0.55% is a terrible return nonetheless, in our opinion.
Good luck and good trading, Dennis Gartman
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