7.

PROBABILITY
7.1.1 Sample Space and Events
a. Experiment is an activity that we carry out to observe a result.
b. Outcome is the result of an experiment that we observed.
c. Sample space is set of all the possible outcomes (or results) in an experiment
d. The sample space is denoted by the letter S.
e. Event is the set of all the possible outcomes (or results) in the sample space that we wish to get.
f. An event can be denoted by any capital letters except S .
g. n(S) denotes the number of possible outcomes in the sample space.
h n(A) denotes the number of possible outcomes in the event A.
Task A : Determine the number of possible outcomes in the sample space and the event by listing the outcomes.
1. An experiment is conducted by rolling a fair dice 2. In an experiment where a fair coin is tossed twice,
once. If A is the event of getting an even score, HT represents an outcome where the first toss
(a) express, in set notation, results in a head and the second toss results in a
(i) the sample space, tail. If B is the event of obtaining at least one
(ii) the event A, tail,
(b) determine the number of possible outcomes in (a) express, in set notation,
(i) the sample space, (i) the sample space,
(ii) the event A. (ii) the event B,
(b) determine the number of possible outcomes in
Answer : (a)(i) S = { } (i) the sample space,
(ii) the event B.
(a)(ii) A = { }
Answer : (a)(i) S =
(b)(i) n(S) =
(a)(ii) B =
(b)(ii) n(A) =
(b)(i) n(S) =
(b)(ii) n(B) =

3. A card is picked randomly from the following cards. 4. In an experiment, two numbers are randomly
chosen, the first from set A = {3 , 5 , 6] and the
H E B A T second from set B = { 2 , 4 , 8}. If D is the event of
getting a total score at least 10,
If C is the event of obtaining vowel, (a) express, in set notation, [Note : (x , y)
(a) express, in set notation, represents an outcome where x A and y B]
(i) the sample space, (i) the sample space,
(ii) the event C, (ii) the event D,
(b) determine the number of possible outcomes in (b) determine the number of possible outcomes in
(i) the sample space, (i) the sample space,
(ii) the event C. (ii) the event D.

Answer : (a)(i) S= Answer : (a)(i) S =

(a)(ii) C = (a)(ii) D =
(b)(i) n(S) = (b)(i) n(S) =
(b)(ii) n(C) = (b)(ii) n(D) =
Answers: 1. S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}; A = {2,4,6}; n(S) = 6; n(A) = 3 2. S = {HH,HT,TH,TT}; B = {HT,TH,TT}; n(S) = 4; n(B) = 3
2. S = {H,E,B,A,T}; C = {E,A}; n(S) = 5; n(C) = 2 4. S = {(3,2),(3,4),(3,8),(5,2),(5,4),(5,8),(6,2),(6,4),(6,8)} ; n(S) = 9
D = {(3,8),(5,8),(6,4),(6,8)} n(D) = 4

Probability 1
Task B: Determine the number possible outcomes in the sample space and the event without listing the outcomes.
1. A box contains 3 black balls, 2
green balls and 5 red balls. A
ball is drawn at random from
the box. If A represents the
event not getting the black
balls, determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(A).
Answers : (a) n(S) =
(b) n(A) =
2. A box contains cards of which
each card is written with an
alphabet from the word
TAMBAHAN. A card is
drawn at random from the box.
If B represents the event of
obtaining vowel card, determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(B).
Answers : (a) n(S) =
(b) n(B) =
3. The table shows a set of
numbers. A number is chosen at
random from the set.
10 11 15
17 22 19
16 25 18
If C represents the event of
choosing number that is multiple
of 5, determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(C).
Answers : (a) n(S) =

(b) n(C) =

4. There are 14 fans in a hall, each
controlled by a switch. It is
known that four fans are spoilt.
Two switches are turned on at
random in an experiment.
Given that D is the event where
only one of the two fans works,
determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(D).
Answers : (a) n(S) =
(b) n(D) =
5. The letters from the word
SUKAN are to be used to form
a five-lettered code. All the
possible codes are written in
cards and put in a box. A card is
drawn from the box. If E
represents the event of getting
code which has both the vowels
next to each other, determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(D).
Answers : (a) n(S) =
(b) n(E) =
6. A box contains 7 blue marbles
and 5 yellow marbles where all
the marbles are of the same size.
Two marbles are drawn from the
box randomly. If F is the event
getting two marbles of the same
colour, determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(F).
Answers : (a) n(S) =
(b) n(F) =

7. Four-digit numbers are to be 8. A 4-member committee of a 9. Code words are to be formed

formed from the digits 2, 4, 6, 7
and 9 without repetitions of
digits. All the numbers that can
be formed are written in small
pieces of papers and put into a
hat. One number is chosen at
random from the hat. If G is the
event getting even number,
determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(G).
Answers : (a) n(S) =
Answers : (a) n(S) =
(b) n(G) =
Answers : 1. (a) 10 (b) 7 2. (a) 8 (b) 3
7. (a) 120 (b) 72 8. (a) 35 (b) 18
club is chosen from 4 boys and
3 girls. Each of the possible
4-member committee formed is
written on a card and put into a
box. One of the cards is drawn
at random from the box. If H
represents the event of
obtaining a committee that has
equal number of boys and girls,
determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(H).
(b) n(H) =
3. (a) 9 (b) 3 4. (a) 91 (b) 40
9. (a) 720 (b) 480
using all the letters of the word
COLUMN. Each of the
possible code words is written
in a small strip of paper and put
into a bag. One of the code
words is chosen from the bag at
random. If L represents the
event of obtaining code word
that begins with a consonant,
determine
(a) n(S),
(b) n(L).
Answers : (a) n(S) =
(b) n(L) =
5. (a) 120 (b) 48 6. (a) 66 (b) 31

Probability 2
7.1.2 Probability of an Event
(a) The probability that an event A occurs is represented by P(A)
number of outcomes in A n A
(b) By classical definition, P A , where 0 P A 1
number of outcomes in S n S
(c) If P(A) = 0, then the event is sure to fail (or is a certain impossibility).
(d) If P(A) = 1. then the event is sure to succeed (or is an absolute surety)
(e) The probability that an event A does not occur is represented by P(A) where P(A) = 1 P(A)

Task A : Determine the Probability of Simple Events.

1. A bag contains 7 red balls, 5 2. A card is picked randomly from 3. A letter is selected at random
green balls and 6 pink balls. A a pack of cards which contains from the word PHYSICS.
ball is picked at random. Find 4 red cards and 6 yellow cards. Find the probability of selecting
the probability that a red ball is Find the probability that a letter S.
picked. yellow card is picked.
Answer :
Answer : Answer :
A = Event of selecting letter S
R = Event red ball is picked Y = Event of picking yellow card
n(R) = 7, n(A) =
n(S) = 18 n(Y) =
n( R ) n(S) =
P( R)
n( S ) n(S) =
n( A)
7 P ( A)
n(Y ) n( S )
18 P (Y )
n( S )

3 2
5 7
4. A fair dice is flipped once. What 5. Identical cards numbered from 6. Each of the letters from the
is the probability of obtaining a 20 to 40, are put in a bag. A card word TAMBAHAN is written
score greater than 4? is drawn randomly from the on identical cards and then put
bag. Find the probability that in a box. If a card is drawn at
Answer : the number on the card is a random from the box, calculate
prime number. the probability that the card
B = Event of obtaining a score drawn is a vowel.
greater than 4.

n(B) =

n(S) =

1 4 3
3 21 8

Probability 3
7. A box containing all the letters
of the word PROBABILITY
written on identical cards. If
one card is drawn at random
from the box, find the
probability that the card drawn
shows a consonant.
8. A card is drawn at random from a 9. A fair dice is rolled twice.
bag which contains 26 identical Calculate the probability of
cards written with all the getting numbers with a sum
different letters of the alphabet. more than 8.
Find the probability that the card
drawn shows a letter from the
word BAHASA.

7 2 5
11 13 18

Task B : Determine the probability of events involving the idea of permutation and combination.
1. All the different three-digit numbers formed from
the digits 2, 3, 6 and 9 without repetition are
written in small pieces of papers and then put in a
hat.
(a) Determine the total number of three-digit
numbers in the hat.
(b) If one of the number is drawn randomly from
the hat, calculate the probability that the
number is less than 300.
2. Six-letter codes are formed by using all the letters in
the word HITUNG. Each code is written on
identical ping pong ball and placed in a box.
(a) Determine the total number of different six-letter
codes contained in the box.
(b) If one of the ping pong balls is drawn randomly,
find the probability that the ping pong ball is
written with the code that ends with vowel.

1
(a) 24 (b) 4
3. A four-member committee is to be formed from a
group of 7 male and 6 female candidates.
(a) Determine the total number of different
Committees that can be formed.
(b) If one of the possible committees in (a) is to
be selected at random, find the probability that
the committee selected is made up of 2 males
and 2 females.
(a) 720 (b) 1
3
4. A combination of four letters is to be formed by
choosing letters from the word PERANCIS.
(a) Determine the total number of different
combinations that can be formed.
(b) If one of the possible combinations in (a) is to be
picked, calculate the probability that the
combination does not have vowel.

63 1
(a) 715 (b) 143 (a) 70 (b) 14
7.2 Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events
Probability 4
(a) If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then only one or the other event can occur at time.
(b) Two events A and B are mutually exclusive events if one of the following conditions happens :
(i) if A B = { } ( or A B = ) or
(ii) if n(A B) = 0 or
(iii) if P(A B ) = 0 or
(iv) if P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)
(c) Two events A and B are exhaustive events if one of the following conditions happens :
(i) if A B = S
(ii) if n(A B) = n(S) or
(iii) if P(A B ) = 1

Task A : Determine whether events are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.

1. A fair coin is flipped twice. Events A and B are
defined below :
A = Event where both flips show heads
B = Event where the two flips result in at least a
tail
State, with a reason, whether events A and B are (a)
mutually exclusive events,
(b) exhaustive events.
2. A fair dice is rolled. Event C is the event a score of
less than 6 and event D is the event a score of more
than 2. State, with a reason, whether events C and D
(a) are mutually exclusive events,
(b) are exhaustive events.

(a) Yes, because (b) Yes, because
3. The sample space S is given by
S = { x : 0 < x < 21, x is an integer }.
Event X and Y are defined as follows:
X = { x : x are even integers }
Y = { x : x are integers which are multiple of 3 }
By finding P(X), P(Y) and P(X Y), determine
whether events X and Y
(a) are mutually exclusive events,
(b) are exhaustive events.
(a) No, because (b) Yes, because
4. The sample space, S, and the events V and W are
defined as follows :
S = Set of code words formed from all the letters of
the word MAS without repetition
V = Set of code words that begin and end with
consonants
W = Set of code words that begin with a vowel and
end with a consonant.
By finding P(V), P(W) and P(V W), determine
whether events V and W
(a) are mutually exclusive events,
(b) are exhaustive events.

(a) No, because (b) No, because (a) Yes, because (b) No, because
Task B : Determine the probability of the events below.
Probability 5
1. A box contains 5 red, 3 yellow 2. A card is picked randomly from
and 4 green marbles. A marble the cards below.
is drawn randomly from the O U T C O M E S
box. Find the probability that
the colour of the marble is Find the probability of getting a
yellow or green. card with a consonant or a letter
O.
7 3
12 4 10
4. A number is chosen at random 5. A bag contains 5 blue pens, 2 red
from the set {1, 2, , 20}. pens and 1 green pen. A pen is
Find the probability that the picked at random from the bag.
number is a multiple of 4 or a Find the probability of getting a
multiple of 7. blue or a green pen.
7 3
20 4 7
7. Nine cards are written with the 8. Muthu chooses a number
letters of the word STATISTIC. randomly from a set S where
If a card is selected randomly, S = { x : 10 x 20 , x is an
find the probability that the card integer}.
has the letter T or a vowel. Find the probability that the
number is a prime number or a
multiple of 5.
2 7
3 11
7.3 Probability of Independent Events
Probability 6
3. On a rack, there are 6 Science
books, 12 Mathematics books
and 2 History books. A book is
to be chosen randomly from the
rack. Calculate the probability
of choosing a Science book or a
Mathematics book.
9
6.
3 4 3 5 3 5 6
A card is picked randomly from
the cards above. Find the
probability of getting a card
with digit 3 or digit 5.
5
9. A fair dice is rolled once. Find
the probability that the dice
shows an odd number or a
number more than 5.
2
3
(a) If events A and B are independent, then the outcome of event A does not affect the occurrence of the
outcome of event B and vice versa.
(b) If A and B are two independent events, then P(A B) = P(A) P(B).
(c) If A, B and C are three independent events, then P(A B C) = P(A) P(B) P(C)
(d) Examples of independent events A and B:
(i) Case 1 : Experiment : Tossing a fair coin and rolling a fair dice.
A = Event of getting head
B = Event of getting prime number
(ii) Case 2 : Experiment : Rolling a fair dice twice.
A = Event of getting even number from the first roll
B = Event of getting even number from the second roll
(iii) Case 3 : Experiment : A coin is tossed and a card is picked
A = Event of getting tail
B = Event of picking a diamond card
(e) A tree diagram is very useful in helping us to answer questions that involve independent events

Task A : Determine the probability of the events below.

1. A fair coin and a fair dice are 2. The probabilities of Thomas 3. In a certain region, it is observed
tossed simultaneously. passing in the English test and that the probability that will rain
Determine the probability of 2 1 2
obtaining a tail and a number Science test are and in a day is . Find the
3 4 5
greater than 4. respectively. Calculate the probability that it will rain for 2
probability that he will pass in days.
Answer :
both test.
A = getting a tail
B = getting a number greater
than 4
1 1
P ( A) , P( B)
2 3
P( A and B ) P( A B )
P( A) P ( B)
1 1

2 3
1 4
1 6 25

6
4. The probability that a defective 5. The probability that a shooter 6. There are 9 pens in a pencil box
bulb produced from a factory is 3 of which 5 are red. If two pens
2 hits the target is . For 2 are chosen randomly, one by
. If Jack buys two bulbs, 5
7 shots, find the probability that one with replacement, find the
find the probability that he will he will fail to hit the target both probability that both pens are
get two good bulbs. times. not red.

25 16
49 81

Probability 7
 4
25
Task B : Determine probability by using Tree Diagram.
1. Ali shoots two arrows. The probability of Ali hitting 2. There is a 30% chance that Leela will cycle to school
3 in a school day. By drawing a tree diagram, find the
the bulls eye with each shot is . By drawing a probability that out of any two school days, Leela
5
tree diagram, find the probability of Ali hitting the will cycle to school in only one day.
bulls eye at least once.
Answer :
Answer : C = event cycling to school
C/ = event not cycling to school possible
A = event hitting the bulls eye possible outcomes
A/ = event not hitting the bulls eye outcomes
3 A AA
5

3 A
5
2
5 A/ AA/
3 A A/A
5
2
5 A/
2
5 A/ A/A first day second day
first shot second shot
P(hit bulls eye at least once)
= P(AA) + P(AA/) + P(A/A)
3 3 3 2 2 3
=
5 5 5 5 5 5
21
=
25
0.42
3. A box contains 4 red cards and 3 green cards. Two 4. Box A contains 1 black marble and 5 white marbles.
cards are drawn at random, one after another Box B contains 4 black marbles and 3 white
without replacement. By drawing a tree diagram, marbles. A marble is picked at random from box A
find the probability that both the cards are of and box B. By drawing a tree diagram, find the
different colour. probability that both of the marbles are of the same
colour.

Probability 8
 4 19
7 42

5 A bag contains 5 black marbles and 3 white marbles.
Two marbles are drawn at random, one after another
from the bag without replacement. By drawing a tree
diagram, find the probability that both of the marbles
are of the same colour.
6. Envelop P contains 5 cards labeled as X, X, Y, Y,
Y whereas envelop Q contains 6 cards labeled
as X, Y, Y, Y, Y, Y. A card is picked at random
from envelop P and envelop Q. By drawing a tree
diagram, find the probability that both of the
cards are of different letters.

13 13
28 30
7. A fair dice is rolled three times. By drawing a tree 8. The probability of obtaining a spoilt orange from a
diagram, find the probability that the number 4 is 1
obtained only once. basket is . If three oranges are selected, find the
4
probability that only an orange is spoilt.

Probability 9
 25 27
72 64
7.4 Past Years Actual SPM Questions

Task : Answer all the questions below.

1. SPM 2004 (No.24 / Paper 1) 2. SPM 2005 (No. 24 / Paper 1)
A box contains 6 white marbles and k black The following table shows the number of
marbles. If a marble is picked randomly from the coloured cards in a box
box, the probability of getting a black marble is Colour Number of Cards
3 Black 5
. Find the value of k. [3 marks]
5 Blue 4
Yellow 3

Two cards are drawn at random from the box. Find

the probability that both cards are of the same
colour. [3 marks]

k=9 19
66
3. SPM 2006 (No. 23 / Paper 1) 4. SPM 2008 (No. 24 / Paper 1)
The probability that Hamid qualifies for the final of a The probability of Sarah being chosen as a
2 3
track event is while the probability that Mohan school prefect is while the probability of
5 5
1 7
qualifies is . Find the probability that Aini being chosen is . Find the probability
3 12
(a) both of them qualify for the final, that
(b) only one of them qualifies for the final. (a) neither of them is chosen as a school
[ 3 marks] prefect,
(b) only one of them is chosen as a school
prefect. [4 marks]

Probability 10
 2 7
(a) 15 (b) 15
29
(a) 1
6 (b) 60
7.5 Enhanced Exercise with Questions of SPM Format

Task : Answer all the questions below.

1. A bag contains 6 blue marbles and k red marbles. If 2. Two dice, one white and one black, are rolled
a marble is picked randomly from the bag, the together. Calculate the probability that the score
3 on the white dice is twice the score on the black
probability of picking a red marble is . Find the
5 dice.
value of k.

1
9 12

3. A box contains 40 marbles. Some are green and 4. Bag I contains 2 blue marbles and 6 black marbles
some are red. If a marble is drawn at random from while bag II contains 3 blue marbles and 4 black
the box, the probability that a green marble drawn marbles. If a marble is chosen at random from each
2 bag, calculate the probability that
is . Calculate (a) both the marbles are black,
5
(b) the marble from bag I is blue and the marble
(a) the number of red marbles in the box,
from bag II is black.
(b) the number of red marbles that have to be
(c) At least one of the marbles chosen is black.
added to the box such that the probability to
15
draw a red marble becomes .
23

Probability 11
 (a) 24 (b) 6 (a) 3
(b) 1
(c) 25
7 7 28

5. Two six-faced unbiased dice are rolled together.
Calculate the probability that
(a) the sum of two numbers is 8.
(b) The difference of two numbers is 5,
(c) The sum of two numbers is 8 or The
difference of two numbers is 5.
6. In a soccer match between team A and team B, the
result can be a draw or a win for team A or a win for
team B. The probability that team A and team B will
1 1
win are and respectively. In two matches,
3 2
calculates the probability that team A will win once
and draw once.

5 1 7
(a) 36 (b) 18 (c) 36 1
18
7. A marble is drawn at random from a box containing 8. Box C contains marbles of which 4 are black and 6
3 black marbles, 4 green marbles and 5 white are yellow. Two marbles are drawn at random, one
marbles. after another with replacement. Determine the
(a) What is the probability of drawing a black or a probability that
green marble? (a) both the marbles are black.
(b) What is the probability of drawing neither a (b) the two marbles in different colour.
black nor a white marble? (c) at least one of the marbles is yellow.

Probability 12
 4
(a) 7
(b) 1 (a) 25 (b) 12 21
25 (c) 25
12 3

9. At Halims shop, there are 5 refrigerators, P, Q, R, S 10. The probability of obtaining the number 4 when a
and T and 4 washing machines, A, B, C and D. If a 1
refrigerator and a washing machine are chosen at bias dice is rolled is . If the bias dice is rolled
4
random, calculate the probability that refregerators
simultaneously with a fair dice, find the probability
P or Q and washing machine A are chosen.
of obtaining 4 on only one of the dice.

1 1
10 3
11. There are 3 reference books and 6 novels arranged 12. A box contains 9 cards. Each card is written with a
on shelf A while 7 reference books and 5 novels are letter from the word GEOGRAPHY. If two
arranged on shelf B. If a book is chosen at random cards are drawn at random, one after the other,
from each shelf, find the probability that a without replacement, calculate the probability that
reference book is chosen from shelf A and a novel a letter G and a vowel are drawn.
is chosen from shelf B.

5 1
36 6
13. Bag A contains 4 cards numbered 3, 5, 6 and 7. 14.
2 6 5 4 12 15
Bag B contains 5 cards numbered 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8.
A card is drawn at random from each bag. Find The diagram above shows 6 pieces of numbered
the probability that both cards have cards. If one card is chosen at random, find the
(a) even numbers, probability that the number chosen is
(b) the same numbers. (a) a multiple of 3 and a factor of 24,
(b) a prime number or an even number.

Probability 13
 3 3 1 5
(a) 20 (b) 20 (a) 3 (b) 6

Probability 14