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OCTOBER 16-29, 2017

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October 16-29, 2017 Contents Volume 179 Number 20

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50
Digital Extras Access exclusive How John Slattery
online features from articles and Domnhal Slattery
accompanied by this icon. discovered their love
of aviation and
7 Feedback reached the peaks of the industry.
8 Whos Where
10-12 First Take
14 Up Front
15 Going Concerns
16 Inside Business Aviation
17 Airline Intel
18 Leading Edge
19 Washington Outlook
64 Classified
65 Contact Us
65 Aerospace Calendar

TECHNOLOGY COMMERCIAL AVIATION BUSINESS AVIATION


20 Boeing bets on Aurora Flight 28 Brexit is just one issue facing UK 30 NBAA show in Las Vegas was
Sciences to help devise innovative low-cost carriers, as Monarch subdued, but improving market
Airlines collapse indicates spurs undercurrent of activity
ideas for new products
30 Dassault Falcon5X development
22 Startup Zunum Aero aims to 25 faces another setback with Safran
rebuild regional aviation with Silvercrest engine problems
hybrid-electric commuter aircraft
BIOFUELS
24 Aurora acquistion gives Boeing 32 Glacial pace of sustainable fuel
pole position in initial subsonic certification and production
X-plane risk-reduction contracts threatens IATA emissions targets

25 GoFly competition to develop a DEFENSE


personal air vehicle could be 33 U.S. Army prioritzes development
aviations next great leap of next-gen missiles, combat
ground vehicles and rotorcraft
BUSINESS NASA
34 South Koreas KF-X fighter grows
26 Aerospace mergers and acquistions 50 Brothers at the top: The Slatterys in development with plans for two-
have become harder to do, but divergent paths brought them seat version, European weapons
there is no deal letup in sight both to aviation leadership posts
ROTORCRAFT
36 Rapid growth of offshore wind
ON THE COVER farms generates new and
Aurora Flight Sciences hopes its planned acquisition by Boeing expanding market for helicopters
will help move its innovations into production, including the
record-holding Orion long-endurance UAV. Graham Warwicks 37 Safrans new Aneto dual-use engine
report begins on page 20. Aurora Flight Sciences photo by Karen family will be an alternative for
Dillon. Also in this issue: SpaceX gambles on the BFR (page 54), the Leonardo AW189 super-medium
Slattery brothers paths to the top (page 50), U.S. missile defense
advances (page 58), and Seouls KF-X fighter keeps growing (page 38 Airbus begins flight trials of a new
34). Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it sensor that could pave the way for
at AviationWeek.com/awst and on our app. fully autonomous helo landings

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 3


Step INSIDE
20
Whats Next in
39 Bell Helicopters next-gen V-280
Global Aerospace
56 Chinese engineers blame Long
Valor tiltrotor prepares to take March 5 failure on its engine, and Defense
to the air within weeks not shared by other launchers

CONNECTED AEROSPACE MISSILE DEFENSE


40 High-bandwidth connectivity within 58 Raytheon pitches its Standard
and between aircraft and ground Missile-3 interceptor as
drives need for sensor advances candidate to defeat ICBMs

42 Inight entertainment and 59 Anatomy of the Ground-Based


Interceptor, which is designed to
connectivity systems brace
destroy ballistic missiles in space
for cybersecurity threats
60 Production gap looms for U.S. Mobile. Online.
AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT kill vehicles as Raytheon Space
43 Airservices Australia looks to Factory winds down its work Updated Daily.
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46 Extended-arrival management
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TREDDING CAUTIOUSLY engine aircraft capable of crossing
awstletters@aviationweek.com
As the captain of a Boeing 787, Tire the Atlantic and twin-engine aircraft Letters may be edited for length and clarity;
Flap (Sept. 18-Oct. 1, p. 37) about Jet- capable of crossing the Pacifc. Until, a verifiable address and daytime telephone
stars 787 tire failure, interested me. I of course, the U.S. developed its own number are required.
believe the Australian Transport Safe- versions of such advanceswhere-
ty Bureau (ATSB) may have missed upon such aircraft were deemed safe.
a key factor in its analysisunneces- When Airbus won the competition F-35 REMAINS CONTROVERSIAL
sary excessive stress placed on tires for the U.S. Air Force tanker contract, Could a more scathing indictment of
by inappropriate pilot technique. Boeing whined to the government the F-35 program be written than ex-
On nearly every trip, I now see and, lo and behold, the contract was pressed in such a matter-of-fact manner
pilots taxiing airplanes and squaring found to be faulty, necessitating a new in the frst paragraph of Final Stretch
their turns for no reasoni.e., crank- competition. The outcome the second (Sept. 18-Oct. 1, p. 55)? After $60 billion
ing the tiller and turning with little or time around favored you know who. and more than 16 years, the F-35 is still
no forward motion. This action places Now Canadas Bombardier has not capable of combat and wont be for
undue stress on tires and can lead to an efcient, small 100-seat aircraft at least another year.
failureespecially on multi-truck- whereas Boeing does not, so yet again In the 16+ years the F-35 has been
axle aircraft such as Boeing 757s up the U.S. government steps in with in development, all the assumptions
through 787s. draconian trade duties. regarding the need for it have failed
About 10 years ago, as a 767 co- Note that state aid does not neces- to materialize. The strategic threats
pilot, I taxied out at an airport in sarily mean money given outright. remain the same (Russia and China),
Madrid. We were heavy400,000 Finbar Constant the likelihood of use against those
lb.+and it was a hot day with a very CORK, IRELAND countries remains the same, and the
long taxi to the runway. The captain, probable utility of the F-35 remains the
for whatever reason, made every turn CANADIAN CONSTERNATION same (practically nil in all cases). For
a perfect right angle, to the point that less than a quarter of the $60 billion, we
the relief pilot and I thought he might could have developed a family of smart
miss the turn onto the runway. strike weapons that would have put at
After takeof, the tower called us risk all ground targets (most warplanes
and said we had left part of a tire on spend the majority of their existence as
the runway. I called back to our main- ground targets) within a thousand miles
tenance crew who quickly picked up of launch.
the pieces. They warned us we had left Instead, we are exploring new gen-
a complete tire tread behind. erations of bombers and fghters whose
Unlike the Jetstar incident, we were only certain features will be even longer
lucky. On arrival in Atlanta, amazingly, development times, expense and even
the tire was still dangerously infated. less utility than the F-35.
DELTA AIR LINES
It looked somewhat comical, totally Jonathan Penn
white with exposed cloth like a white Im disgusted that Boeing has ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN
donut with the tread completely gone. decided to play politics instead of
Even more astonishing, there was no focusing on competing with Bombar- ACCOLADES FOR ALCOR, PERLAN 2
damage to the brake lines or faps. dier on technical merits. By taking Soaring Ambitions (Sept. 18-Oct. 1,
I have no doubt that our captains advantage of the political climate p. 47) is a compelling read, but I ques-
turn technique caused the failure by in Washington, Boeing is not only tion the statement: Perlan 2 is the frst
overstressing the tire. jeopardizing thousands of Canadian glider with a pressurized cockpit.
Since I saw no mention of this jobs, but thousands in the UK and Bob Lamson, a Boeing engineer well-
in the article, I wonder if Michelin even the U.S. known on the Northwest glider scene,
and the ATSB might be too quick to Boeing benefts from decades of included a pressurized cockpit in his
blame chevrons and grooved runways generous U.S. subsidiesdirectly innovative, home-built Alcor glider 40
instead of watching for this currently and indirectlyvia its defense activi- years ago.
fashionable and totally inappropriate ties, which have allowed it to develop Other innovations, such as a pres-
pilot technique now being performed technologies for its commercial surized cockpit (a frst for a sailplane)
at nearly any busy airport. aircraft. and solar heater, keep the Alcors pilot
Capt. John B. McClanahan The Canadian government should comfortable at high altitudes. Lamson
FAYETTEVILLE, GEORGIA suspend all Boeing contracts and few the experimental sailplane recre-
move them to other qualifed sup- ationally for years. It is now in a place
FAVORED-SON STATUS? pliers, Canadian or otherwise. And of honor at Seattles Museum of Flight.
Boeing should stop looking to the ban Boeing from participating in any Merle Hanley
government to fght its battles (Sept. procurement for the duration of this SEATTLE, WASHINGTON
18-Oct. 1, p. 34). dispute. (The Alcor was the frst sailplane devel-
In the 1970s, 80s and 90s Boeing Jeremy Laliberte, Director of Aerospace, oped with a pressurized cockpit, but the
relied on U.S. authorities as it tried Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Perlan 2 is the frst of its type to have ac-
to counter, respectively, Airbuss ad- Dept., Carleton University tively used pressurization to successfully
vances in supersonic transport, twin- OTTAWA, ONTARIO achieve high-altitude operationEd.)

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 7


Whos Where To submit information for the
Whos Where column, send Word
or attached text files (no PDFs) and
photos to: whoswhere@aviationweek.com
For additional information on
companies and individuals listed in
this column, please refer to the
Maurita Sutedja

T
he Aerospace Industries Associa- former Deputy Defense Secre- Aviation Week Intelligence Network
tion has named Eric K. Fanning tary Robert Work. at AviationWeek.com/awin For
president and chief executive Asia Satellite Telecommuni- information on ordering, telephone
ofcer efective Jan. 1, 2018. Fanning cations Co. Ltd. (AsiaSat) has U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or
had been most recently U.S. Army named Saphina Ho (see photo) +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.
secretary. Prior to that he served as as general counsel. She suc-
chief of staf to the Defense secretary, ceeds Catherine Chang. Prior
acting secretary of the Air Force and to joining AsiaSat, Ho was as- chief administrative ofcer in
deputy under secretary and deputy sistant general counsel of Pac- Troy Lahr 2014. Flatley had been govern-
chief management ofcer of the Navy. net Global and also worked for ment services group president
He is the only person to have held se- New World Mobility and Global at LINXX Global Solutions.
nior appointments in all three military One as an in-house lawyer. Wilma Allan (see photo) has
departments and the Ofce of the Sec- Bristow Group has appointed been appointed chief fnance
retary of Defense. oil and gas industry veteran ofcer for London City Aiport.
Northrop Grumman has promoted Gaurdie Banister Jr. to its Allan has over 20 years experi-
Kathy J. Warden to president and board of directors. Bruce H. ence in fnance, procurement,
chief operating ofcer, efective Jan. 1, Stover and David C. Gompert systems and IT management
2018, from corporate vice president will step down from the board Saphina Ho and most recently was chief
and president of mission systems. In in March 2018. fnancial ofcer for Govia
her new role, she will oversee the in- Safran Nacelles has named Thameslink Railway.
tegration of the Orbital ATK business. Cedric Hale (see photo) as Air New Zealand has named
The board of directors also elected human resources director. He Jef McDowall chief fnancial
Mark A. Caylor corporate vice had been human resources ofcer efective Jan. 1, 2018,
president and president of mission director since 2011 at FAMAT, replacing Rob McDonald, who
systems, Shawn N. Purvis corporate a joint venture between Safran is leaving the carrier. McDow-
vice president and president of enter- Aircraft Engines and General Cedric Hale
all is currently group general
prise services, and Lesley A. Kalan Electric. manager for corporate fnance.
corporate vice president of govern- Damon Bowden has been Elena Avila (see photo) has
ment relations, all efective Jan. 1. promoted to vice president been promoted by Amadeus to
Warden and Kalan succeed Gloria A. of global sales and business executive vice president and
Flach and Sid Ashworth, respectively, development for AerSale, a head of airlines for the Ameri-
who are retiring. supplier of midlife aircraft, cas from global head of airline
Maurita Sutedja (see photos) has engines, used serviceable ma- strategy.
been appointed vice president of in- terial, and maintenance repair VSE Aviation has hired
vestor relations for Boeing, succeeding and overhaul services. Bowden Wilma Allan Rishiraj Singh (see photo) as
Troy Lahr, who has been appointed will be based in Cardif, Wales, senior vice preseident of inter-
chief fnancial ofcer of Boeings Au- and will be tasked with helping national business development.
tonomous Systems business. AerSale to grow in the avia- Singh spent 12 years with Hon-
Lufthansas supervisory board has tion aftermarket in Europe, eywell Aerospace, most recent-
elected Karl-Ludwig Kley as the new the Middle East, Africa and ly as vice president of defense
chairman, replacing Wolfgang Mayrhu- the Asia-Pacifc region. and space international for Eu-
ber, who has resigned. Kley joined the British satellite company rope, the Middle East, Africa,
board in 2013 and was Lufthansa chief Earth-i has made a range of India and Latin America.
Elena Avila
fnancial ofcer in 1998-2006. new senior appointments: John Cambodian carrier Bassaka
Patrick Prefontaine has been ap- Linwood as chief technology Air has named a new executive
pointed chief commercial ofcer of ofcer; Chetan Pradhan as team including Mark Thibault
Black Swan Avionics, which has devel- head of institutional engage- as CEO, Loon Weng Cheun
oped, in partnership with Panasonic ment; Nico V. Spyropoulos as as chief operations ofcer and
and others, in-seat interactive technol- head of strategic engagement Andrew Stephen as chief
ogy, portals and apps, crew applica- for Europe, the Middle East commercial ofcer.
tions and data resource management and Africa; Gary Crowley as
for LEVEL, International Airlines satellite operations manager; Rishiraj Singh HONORS & ELECTIONS
Groups new long-haul, low-cost airline. and Natasha Hyde as digital Michael Kerkloh, CEO and
Stephen C. Hedger, a former U.S. marketing manager. president of Munich Airport, has been
Defense Department assistant secre- Michael George has been promoted voted the 2017 Travel Industry Man-
tary, has joined Rheinmetall Group as to chief operating ofcer and Sea- ager of the Year by the Travel Industry
senior vice president of corporate de- mus Flatley has been hired as vice Club. The award was presented to
velopment for the U.S., a new position. president of business development at Kerkloh at a gala event in Cologne, Ger-
Hedger last served as chief of staf to IOMAX. George joined the company as many, in September. c

8 AViATioN WEEK & SPACE TECHNoLoGy/oCToBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


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First Take For the latest, go to AviationWeek.com

Boeing-backed startup Zunum


Aeros frst product is to be a 12-seat
commuter aircraft with hybrid-electric
ducted-fan propulsion and operating
costs 20-30% those of similar-sized
turboprops. Certifcation is planned for
2022 (page 22).

In its Oct. 3 fnal report on the huge


underwater search for the Malaysia
Airlines Boeing 777-200ER that disap-
peared in 2014, the Australian Trans-
port Safety Bureau says it is almost
SCALED COMPOSITES inconceivable and certainly societally
DEFENSE unacceptable that what happened to
Flight MH370 remains unknown.
Scaled Composites has fown its lat- early warning aircraft is set to fy by
est experimental aircraft, the Model year-end, with deliveries to begin in UK leisure airline Monarch Airways
401, for an unidentifed proprietary 2020. Dubbed Premier, the A-100 has a ceased trading on Oct. 2, blaming the
customer to demonstrate low-cost dual-mode radar in a rotodome above impact of terrorism and political un-
manufacturing techniques. Scaled the fuselage of a modernized Ilyushin rest on tourist trafc to Egypt, Tunisia
has built two of the Mach 0.6 aircraft, Il-76MD-90 airlifter. and Turkey. Analysts say Monarch was
powered by a 3,045-lb.-thrust Pratt & unable to cut costs to compete with
Whitney Canada JT15D-15D. The proposed $15 billion sale to rivals such as Ryanair (page 28).
Saudi Arabia of Lockheed Martin
Canada has formally expressed Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense
interest in buying used F-18A/B systems, which includes up to 44
fghters from Australia instead of launchers and 360 missiles plus seven
new F/A-18E/Fs from Boeing amid Raytheon TPY-2 radars, comes hard
a deepening trade dispute. The U.S. on the heels of Riyadh agreeing to buy
proposes imposing duties of almost Russias S-400 Triumf mobile surface-
300% on Bombardier C Series imports to-air missile system.
in response to Boeing charges of price-
dumping (page 14). Aerojet Rocketdyne is to ground-
demonstrate a turbine-based com-
Boeing is to acquire Aurora Flight bined cycle engine that could power a
Sciences, a privately held specialist reusable hypersonic aircraft from take-
in unmanned aircraft, autonomous of to beyond Mach 5 under DARPAs
systems and electric propulsion that Advanced Full-Range Engine program.
also supplies composite aerostructures
to Bell Helicopter, Sikorsky, Northrop COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Grumman and others (page 20).
French accident investigator BEA
Belgium, as expected, has formally has recovered from Greenland parts
rejected a French ofer of a closer of an Engine Alliance GP7200 that
defense partnership based on select- failed on an Air France Airbus A380
SAFRAN
ing the Dassault Rafale to replace the
F-16. Just two aircraft are left in the Safran has inaugurated a ground
running: the Eurofghter Typhoon and testbed for a full-scale counter-
Lockheed Martin F-35. rotating open-rotor engine in Istres,
France, marking key progress in the
BAE Systems will cut 1,900 jobs European-funded technology program.
in the UK1,400 coming from its The 22,000-lb.-thrust demonstrator
aerospace-aligned Military Air and engine began running in May.
Information division as it cuts Typhoon
and Hawk production amid uncertain BUSINESS AVIATION
ordersand realigns into four divi- BEA

sions: Air, Land, Maritime and Applied en route from Paris to Los Angeles on Development of Dassaults Falcon
Intelligence. Sept. 30. The aircraft made an emer- 5X business jet, already slowed four
gency landing in Goose Bay, Newfound- years by engine problems, has been
Russias new Beriev A-100 airborne land, after the fan and inlet detached. hit with another delay after Safran

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


Singapore Oct 31- Nov 2, 2017
SINGAPORE EXPO CONVENTION AND EXHIBITION CENTRE

N E W I N 2 0 17

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Connect with Inspiring Speakers

Andrew Hewitt Chye Kiat Ang Lee Brough Ajarin Cyrille Schwob
Head of Engineering EVP Aircraft Manufacturing Pattanapanchai Head of Research
Contracts & Leasing, Maintenance and Executive, Deputy Secretary & Technology
Air New Zealand Modifcation Fan Blade Facility, General, Thailand Development APAC,
Chairman, 2017 MRO ST Aerospace Rolls-Royce Singapore Board of Investment Airbus Singapore
Asia-Pacic Conference

Ashwani Sharma Ravinder Pal Randy Tinseth Ian Wolfe Edward YEO
VP Engineering and Singh Vice President, Senior Advisor Head of Continuing
Quality Manager, Chief Information Marketing, Boeing Engineering and Airworthiness,
Air Costa Offcer, TATA SIA Commercial Airplanes Fleet Management CAAS
Airlines Cebu Pacifc Air

mroasia.aviationweek.com
First Take
Business Aviation: Still Down, But Looking Up
1,200
experienced compressor problems Forecast
Fore
Forecas
castt
during high-altitude, low-speed ight
testing of its Silvercrest turbofan 1,000
(page 30).
Very-High-Speed-
800 Ultra-Long-Range
The commercial and parapublic

Aircraft Units
Ultra-Long-Range
market will need nearly 22,000 new Long-Range
helicopters over the next 20 years, 600
Large
worth 125 billion ($148 billion) in new
deliveries, says Airbus in its rst public 400 Medium-Large
long-term forecast. After declining 35% Medium
in 2012-16, the market stabilized in 2017, Light-Medium
200
the company says (page 36).
Light
Very Light
Leonardos AW189 super-medium 0
helicopter will be the first applica-
00

04

08

12

16

20

24

27
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
tion for Safrans 2,500-3,000-shp Aneto ~8,300 Aircraft in 2017-27
Source: Honeywell
Source: Honeywell
turboshaft family. Leonardo plans to
certify an AW189K derivative with
2,500-shp Aneto-1K engines by the end As the anticipated recovery slips to 2019, Honeywells 10-year business-
of 2018 (page 37). aviation forecast has contracted again, declining to about 8,300
deliveries worth $264 billion over 2017-27, down 300 aircraft from
Boeing is sponsoring a $2 million a year earlier (page 30).
competition to develop a safe, viable
personal air vehicle, with a y-of in
2019. The GoFly Prize will be awarded in one of the two YF-77 hydrogen- ates (MDA) on Oct. 5 completed its
for an everyone personal ying device burning engines of the core rst stage acquisition of DigitalGlobe, renam-
capable of being own by anyone at any (page 56). ing the combined company Maxar
time (page 25). Technologies, with its senior leadership
MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associ- drawn from both.
SPACE

After more than two decades, U.S. 55 YEARS AGO


Vice President Mike Pence revived IN AVIATION WEEK
the National Space Council on Oct. 5 The Cuban Missile Crisis began on
and requested 45-day reviews on shift- Oct. 14, 1962, when a U.S. U-2 recon-
ing NASA human spaceight policy naissance aircraft took pictures over
toward cislunar space, regulatory Cuba that revealed construction sites
changes to help private space com- for medium- and intermediate-range
panies and devising a space strategic Soviet missiles. Six days later, Presi-
framework. dent John F. Kennedy ordered a naval
quarantine of Cuba to prevent ships
The U.S. Air Force has issued a re- from the Soviet Union from deliver-
quest for proposals for co-investment ing more missiles, triggering a tense
in development of up to three next- standoff between the two superpowers
generation launch vehicles to replace and fears of a nuclear war. Aviation
the Russian RD-180-powered Lockheed Week covered the crisis in a nine-
Martin Atlas V for national security page report in its Oct. 29 edition, and
space launches beginning in 2022. Editor-in-Chief Robert Hotz applauded
Kennedys long overdue move in an
Concerned about potential delays of accompanying editorial. Hotz warned
two new U.S. commercial space taxis, that the world must not be inundated by a flood of ancient barbarity cloaked
NASA is to buy three more Russian in the modern political dogma of communism. The crisis ended after 13 days,
Soyuz rides for International Space when the Soviets agreed to dismantle the missiles and remove them from
Station crew ferry ights through the Cuba. The magazines Nov. 5 covered featured a photo of a Soviet missile base
fall of 2019. 150 mi. east of Havana taken by a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft.
The failure of Chinas largest space
launcher, the Long March 5, on its Read the Oct. 29, 1962, and Nov. 5, 1962, editions of Aviation Week
second ight was found to have been and every other issue back to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com
caused by a manufacturing defect

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


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Up Front By Richard Aboulaa
Contributing columnist
Richard Aboulaa is
vice president of analysis
at Teal Group. He is
based in Washington.

COMMENTARY comes to $4.5 billion in duties for this


deal, a seemingly arbitrary number.

Unilateral For jetliner markets, there are two


likely consequences of the C Series
case. First, since other countries will

Consequences see it as a political outcome, they will


retaliate, either through multilat-
eral institutions such as the WTO or
Will U.S. rulings unravel years of through their own national barriers.
Since it is relatively easy to prove
trade advances in commercial aviation? that a jet was subsidized (by one
countrys criteria, without any multilat-

B ombardiers C Series has had a rough few weeks. The U.S.


Commerce Department in September ruled that the 75-air-
craft CS100 sale to Delta Air Lines was subsidized enough to
eral adjudication) pretty much anyone
would be able to keep competing jets
out of their home markets. In this way,
decades of progress toward free trade
warrant a 220% countervailing duty on all C Series jets imported in jetliners could be undone in a few
into the U.S. Then, in early October, Commerce also ruled that an years.
The U.S., and in particular Boeing,
additional 80% anti-dumping enjoy an enormous surplus in com-
duty was warranted. Decades of progress mercial aerospace trade. Over 80% of
toward free trade Boeing jetliners go to export end users.
Boeing, which initiated this trade in jetliners could be The 737-7, the only Boeing jet that
complaint earlier this year, now faces competes in any way with the C Series,
negative consequences in the Cana- undone in a few years. has been ordered by three customers.
dian and UK defense markets. It also Ironically, two are Canadian. Canada
faces negative consequences from U.S. will be able to use its own unilateral
airlines, not only Delta, but also Spirit trade actions to kill a competing plane.
Airlines, JetBlue Airways and others. Alternatively, Canada could take the
But the greatest potential self-inicted high road and go through the WTO,
damage to Boeing might result from which may then nd that the Com-
changes in global jetliner trade rules. LARRY W. SMITH/GETTYIMAGES merce duties violated ATCA, thereby
First, the jetliner markets strong The Commerce ruling represents an authorizing Canada to retaliate.
growth in recent decades has been extension of an America First trade Second, ATCA and other multilat-
aided by a remarkable multilateral agenda. The Trump administration eral trade agreements, such as the
treaty created in 1980, the Agreement is increasingly relying on unilateral Capetown Convention, have played a
on Trade in Civil Aircraft (ATCA). trade actions instead of multilateral strong role in promoting the rise of
Originally a component of the General negotiations. According to Chad Bown third-party nancing, which in turn
Agreement On Tarifs And Trade of the Peterson Institute for Interna- plays a role in the majority of jetliner
(GATT) and now part of the World tional Economics, if the administration purchases.
Trade Organization (WTO), ATCA follows through on all of its proposed The Commerce ruling means that
aimed to eliminate all customs duties trade actions, the share of U.S. im- for the rst time, a jetliner owned by
and other charges of any kind on ports subject to unilateral restrictions a lessor or other nancier could not
commercial jetliners. This 10-page would rise to 7.4% of the total from be sold or leased into a key market
document has greatly reduced trade 3.8% in 2016. without onerous duties. Since this uni-
barriers between signatories, giving Commerces C Series ruling might lateral trade action could be followed
airlines freedom to select their jets. be rendered moot by February, when by similar actions with other jets and
ATCA is why Air France has scores the U.S. International Trade Commis- in other countries, there is likely to be
of Boeing 777s and why Airbus has a sion (ITC) is set to rule on whether a chill in jetliner nance markets, with
strong U.S. customer base. The accord Boeing was actually damaged by Bom- additional risk premiums attached to
has encouraged innovation and tech- bardiers actions. But many believe nance deals.
nology development, since airframers the level of Commerces duties is as It is hard to see how this possible
need to compete globally rather than politicized as the trade complaint itself. change in jetliner nance terms would
rely on protected home markets. The combined duties are nearly twice be to Boeings advantage. Then again,
ATCA does allow for trade com- Boeings request of combined 160% it is hard to see how any of the negative
plaints, but in a multilateral context. countervailing/anti-dumping duties. second-order efects from Boeings
Boeings Commerce Department Assuming Boeing is correct and Delta complaint would not greatly outweigh
complaint is a unilateral one and is paid $20 million per jet, there is now a any protection it would get from a
part of a broader political trend. $60 million duty on each aircraft. That small perceived competitor. c

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


Going Concerns By Michael Bruno
Michael Bruno is
Senior Business Editor
Join the conversation at:
AviationWeek.com/GoingConcerns
michael.bruno@aviationweek.com

commentAry wonders aloud whether the rulemak-


ing will make its way into interna-

Cyber Insecurities tional deals, as proactive primes could


require it of foreign suppliers.
The target of the new rule is suppli-
ers, but it is prime contractors that the
A new regulation is about to hit the U.S. defense Pentagon will hold accountable, and
industrial base, which may not be ready thus they will be the enforcers. Not
surprisingly, primes are trying to make
sure their suppliers act accordingly.
P resident Donald Trump seems to be on a tear lately, cutting
and rolling back federal regulations, but major new red tape
is about to swamp the aerospace and defense industry, and for
Northrop Grumman and the National
Defense Industrial Association are
hosting a workshop Nov. 1, and DXC
good reasons. and Exostar had webinars in Septem-
ber, now available on their websites,
along with white papers on the topics.
Weaknesses with DFARS compli-
ance in a prime contractors supply
chain will potentially introduce vulner-
abilities up the supply chain and back
to the prime contractor, DXC says. If
failure to protect controlled unclassi-
fed information or covered defense
information occurs, accountability may
fall back to the prime contractor.
The biggest issue surrounding the
Northrop GrummaN

new requirement probably is in under-


standing what information is covered
by the DFARS and what is exempt.
Meanwhile, it is best to take three
seemingly simple but enormous steps:
Indeed, many companiesespecial- suppliers to comply with regulations Protect your content, know your users,
ly smaller suppliersprobably are not for protecting unclassifed information, and track everything.
ready, many consultants say, and soon as defned in National Institute of Stan- The task is daunting, especially for
the changes could afect their business dards and Technology (NIST) Special smaller suppliers without the resourc-
prospects. Failure to comply could Publication 800-171. es, experience or expertise to imple-
potentially end existing contracts with In a nutshell, by Dec. 31 defense con- ment strong, modern cybersecurity.
the Defense Department and prohibit tractors have to complete a Cyberse- Primes were knuckle-wrapped about
the ability to bid on future contracts, curity Compliance Readiness Assess- their sieve-like cybersystems under the
say experts at DXC, the new IT ser- ment, which includes a gap analysis of Obama administration, and all of them
vices provider formed this year from shortfalls, a plan of action with identif- have hardened their defenses. But the
the old Computer Sciences Corp. and able milestones and implementation of supply chain accounts for about two-
Hewlett Packard Enterprise. a system security plan. thirds of what primes spend by way
The new regulation addresses In turn, they must meet the 110 secu- of costs for their products, and that is
cybersecurity, or the lack thereof, in rity control requirements identifed in where industrysand the nations
the defense industrial base. Long a NIST SP 800-171, according to experts weaknesses remain most glaring.
shortcoming of contractors across the at Exostar, which started as an A&D The notion that the buck stops with
U.S.think National Security Agency cooperative among primes to help with primes is probably a good thing and is
spying tools being pilfered, or having compliance and services. This does better than the government trying to
to redesign parts of the uber-expensive not mean their cyberdefenses must enforce compliance from a bureaucrat-
F-35 Joint Strike Fighter due to digital be impenetrable by the start of 2018, ic and cost standpoint. But now it is up
leakagecybersecurity is now being but it does mean there must be a real to primes to make sure their suppliers
pushed down into the supply chain blueprint for getting there. Among become compliant and stay that way.
by a new Defense Federal Acquisition other provisions, contractors also have Smaller suppliers should not hesitate
Regulation Supplement (DFARS). to start reporting incidents to the to call on their giant customers if they
The new rule is DFARS 252.204. Pentagon within 30 days. have any questions or needs.
7012, Safeguarding Covered Defense Exostar says it is already seeing fs- And if you are not getting satisfac-
Information and Cyber Incident Re- cal 2018 defense contracts written with tion, then call your member of Con-
porting. It obligates defense industry the new standards embedded. DXC gressor even a reporter. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 15


Inside Business Aviation By William Garvey
William Garvey is Editor-in-Chief
of Business & Commercial Aviation
Join the conversation at:
AviationWeek.com/IBA
william.garvey@aviationweek.com

commentary ARGUS Unmanned, reports that in


the past six months his unit has been

Golden Drones contacted by companies involved in


banking, telecom, utilities, oil and gas
and other industries to help set up
drone programs. And of those already
A rating system for UAS operators involved in business aviation, he says,
Theyre turning the drones over to

G iven the segments rapid growth, heres a question that will


become increasingly important: How good a drone pilot are
you? For now, it is difcult to prove a level of expertise.
the fight department.
For companies that choose to
engage a commercial UAS operator,
a new entity, unsurprisingly, ARGUS
While vehicle operators of all Unmanned, is there to help. As in its
stripesfrom regional jet pilots auditing system of charter operators,
to tugboat captains to truckers ARGUS, with heavy input from its USI
haulin hogsmust ofcially personnel, has established an auditing
demonstrate that they have a fa- standard for commercial UAS provid-
cility for doing what they are do-
ing, that is not the case for anyone
operating an unmanned aerial
system (UAS) weighing as much
as a 5,000-BTU air conditioner.
(Two examples are UAV Factorys
Penguin C, center photo, and
Insitus Scan Eagle, far right.) UAV FActory
Under current aviation rules,
individuals fying drones for noncom- organizations integrate drones InsItU

mercial purposes need not demon- safely into their own operations. ers. This involves certifed auditors
strate any facility to anyone. Those To that end, USI has crafted a UAS spending two days on site reviewing
expecting the drones to deliver dollars curriculum to whet interest in science, an operators documented practices,
do have to pass an FAA test under technology, engineering and math procedures and performance weighed
Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR) among high school and university stu- against the ARGUS criteria. A compli-
107, the Small Unmanned Aircraft dents. The program explores a range ant operation can promote that fact.
Systems rule, to gain a commercial of UAS-related subjects including Phoenix Air, a well-regarded jet
drone pilot license. aircraft control, payloads, data links, charter operator based near Atlanta,
However, the exam covers the rules airport operations, meteorology and launched a UAS unit, Phoenix Air
and regs; test takers do not actually regulations. More than 100 schools Unmanned, in 2014. It operates seven
demonstrate an ability to fy the thing. and colleges have embraced the USI types of UAS providing a wide range
So, back to that opening question. curriculum. of services, including flming for mo-
It is one that UAS operators, and par- The unit has also created a certifca- tion pictures and television, precision
ticularly commercial operators, want tion program that goes well beyond the surveying and utility infrastructure
to answer with authority. It is the same minima set by the FAA for becoming inspections in the U.S. and Canada.
kind of question regularly posed to FAR 107 UAS pilots. It comprises four Prior to his appointment as managing
FAR 135 charter providers by potential college-equivalent courses totaling director, Will Lovett served 24 years as
customers and insurers. 150+ hr. of instruction. In the 2016-17 a U.S. Army pilot and then entered the
Typically, they point to their favor- school year, more than 700 students aviation insurance feld, with Phoenix
able rating by one of several auditing obtained their Small UAS Safety one of his clients. He viewed ARGUS
agenciesWyvern Ltd. and ARGUS Certifcation. audits as important endorsements of
International are the best known. A USI holds two workshops annually an operators performance and, accord-
good rating is a diferentiator in the in partnership with Embry-Riddle ingly, invited a review of his UAS team
crowded charter industry. Aeronautical University; additional and procedures. In May, Phoenix Air Un-
Considering that background, it was workshops with other colleges are manned became the frst such operation
a logical move for Cincinnati-based being discussed. Apart from the in- to receive an ARGUS Gold rating.
ARGUS in April 2016 to acquire the school classes, the majority of USI Lovett says the auditing process is
Unmanned Safety Institute (USI). instruction is online. However, it also strict, challenging and appropriate. As
Co-founded in 2014 by people skilled conducts on-site instruction for com- for its value: I think its very impor-
in UAS management, operations and panies contracting its services. tant; most certainly it is to Phoenix Air.
education, USIs purpose is to teach, Aaron Greenwald, a USI co-founder Which answers the opening question
train, set safety standards and help and now senior vice president for with authority. c

16 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 aviationWeek.com/awst


Airline Intel By Madhu Unnikrishnan
Madhu Unnikrishnan is
Editor-in-Chief of Aviation Daily
Join the conversation at:
AviationWeek.com/AirlineIntel
madhu.unnikrishnan@aviationweek.com

commentary in for the other side. The Big Three


are not asking the U.S. government

Old Fight, New Battle to enforce the rules as outlined in


our open skies agreements, he told
a Washington audience last month.
They are asking Washington to break
Will the White House side with big U.S. airlines the rules in order to limit the competi-
against their Gulf counterparts? tion against them and their foreign
airline partners. USAOS says any
freeze of the Gulf carriers access to

R emember that battle over open skies and the Persian Gulf
carriers access to the U.S.? It is about to return with a
vengeance, as U.S. legacy carriers and a group of nonaligned
the U.S. market would be an abroga-
tion of the open skies agreements and
invite retaliation against U.S. airlines.
So far, the Trump administration
airlines gear up to lobby the Trump administration about has given mixed signals about where it
whether it should build a wall in the sky. might come down in the debate. Trans-
portation Secretary Elaine Chao has
After reaching a fever pitch not weighed in, but her department did
in 2015-16, the battle simmered approve a foreign air carrier permit for
down as the two sides tried to Norwegian UK, over the objections of
fgure out how the incoming
president and his team would The rhetoric over the Gulf carriers
deal with the issue. The legacy access to the U.S. heats up again,
carriers and their unions took imperiling U.S. open skies policy.
solace in the Trump cam-
paigns America First trade the legacy carriers and their unions.
platform but were uncertain On the other hand, the administration
how it would apply to inter- has implemented travel bans afect-
national aviation. President Joepriesaviation.net
ing passengers in countries in which
Donald Trump himself said the Gulf carriers operate, and laptop
earlier this year that he acknowledged deny that is the case. The partnership banssince rescindedthat materi-
both sides of the issue. is calling for U.S. consultations with ally afected the Gulf carriers business
The U.S. open skies policy has the UAE and Qatari governments and trafc. And it recently moved to slap a
transformed international aviation demanding a freeze in the Gulf car- 220% duty on Canadian-made Bombar-
since the frst agreement was struck riers capacity to the U.S. until those dier C Series aircraft, signaling that
with the Netherlands in 1992, removing talks conclude. Trumps America First mantra might
all barriers on air service between the The U.S. airline industry is by no be extended to aviation.
signatory countries and allowing any means united. JetBlue Airways, Hawai- The stakes are huge. If the world
airline domiciled in either country to ian Airlines and cargo carriers FedEx starts to think that the ironclad U.S.
serve the other with few restrictions. and Atlas Air formed a rival lobbying open skies agreements are wobbly,
But in recent years, the three largest group, U.S. Airlines for Open Skies other countries could retaliate by
U.S. carriersDelta Air Lines, Ameri- (USAOS). It points out that the legacy shutting of access to U.S. airlines. No
can Airlines and United Airlinesand carriers only started complaining one wants to go back to the days be-
their unions have grown increasingly when Emirates began operating a fight fore open skies, when routes between
alarmed by the inroads the three big between Milan and New York, a direct the U.S. and Londons Heathrow Air-
Gulf carriersEmirates, Etihad threat to the legacy carriersand port were limited to two airlines from
Airways and Qatar Airwayswere their European partnerslucrative each nation, to cite just one example.
making into the U.S. market (Southwest transatlantic routes. The partnerships The unassailable fact is that open
Airlines pilot union, but not the airline, charges are laughable, USAOS says, skies agreements have lowered fares
also has joined the fght). The U.S. has because it was the open skies agree- and increased connectivity. And the
open skies agreements with both the ments that allowed the legacy carriers Gulf carriers, even with their current
United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar. to strike immunized joint ventures with fnancial travails, have made hundreds
The Partnership for Open and Fair European carriers in the frst place. of new markets accessible to pas-
Skies, a lobbying group formed by And the rhetoric is heating up sengers in North America. If the Gulf
the legacy U.S. airlines, says the Gulf again. We just cannot compete carriers scale back their connections
carriers beneft from tens of billions of against $50 billion in government to North America because U.S. policy
dollars in direct government subsi- subsidies, United Airlines President changes to beneft a handful of wealthy
dies, tilting the playing feld in their Scott Kirby complained in August. companies and their unions, it is the
favor. The Gulf carriers vehemently Robin Hayes, CEO of JetBlue, chimed consumer who will sufer. c

aviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 17


Leading Edge By Graham Warwick
Graham Warwick is
Managing Editor for Technology
Join the conversation at:
AviationWeek.com/LE
warwick@aviationweek.com

commentary Army has conducted ballistic test-


ing with bullets and rocket-propelled

Cell Mate grenades (RPG). The compressed-hy-


drogen tank was able to resist 7.62-mm
armor-piercing and incendiary rounds
without exploding, says Freese, who
Modular fuel-cell autonomous vehicle suggests adds that the RPG penetrated the tank
the technology could be ready for aerospace but caused no explosion.
This is due to a combination of tank
design and physics, he says. When

M ost new technologies with potential to disrupt aerospace


get their start in other sectors. For hydrogen fuel cells,
that will certainly be automotivein personal, commercial and
the pressurized tank is penetrated,
the escaping hydrogen goes sonic,
creating turbulence that makes it
difcult to sustain combustion. It is a
military vehicles. But General Motors believes its fuel cells will no more signifcant safety issue than
fnd a place in aviation, in auxiliary power units (APU), distrib- with liquid fuel, he says.
uted power generation and ground-support vehicles. As for availability, where a hydro-
gen infrastructure is not already in
GM has launched place there are options, says GM.
SURUS (for Silent The Army has reformer technology
Utility Rover Universal to convert JP8 fuel to hydrogen, and
Platform), a fexible and you can go farther on the hydrogen
autonomous vehicle plat- than the original JP8, says Freese.
form (see photo) built on Solar, wind and grid electricity can
a truck chassis powered also be used to generate hydrogen.
by modular fuel cells set The process is not emissions-free, but
to be produced start- neither is charging batteries.
ing in 2020 in a new $85 The second-generation fuel cells in
million plant built jointly the SURUS platform are half the size
with Honda Motor Co. in and weight of those in the ZH2, and
Brownstown, Michigan. General Motors cost is reduced by using less precious
The same modules are being evalu- size, recharge in minutes versus hours metal as a catalyst, 12 grams versus
ated for auxiliary power in aircraft and provide endurance of months 80. The vehicle itself combines fuel
and to power unmanned undersea rather than days, he says. cells with autonomous driving tech-
vehicles (UUV), says Charlie Freese, Fuel cells are not new to aerospace. nology developed elsewhere within
executive director of GMs global fuel- They have been used in the space GM, says Freese. The vehicle has
cell business. shuttle and International Space sensors, four-wheel steering and can
If the technology catches onand Station. But those are expensive drive in either direction.
Honda and Toyota are already pro- systems. GM is not new to fuel cells:: SURUS is a platform. It can carry
ducing fuel-cell carsaerospace could It produced the frst such vehicle, the cargo containers or fuel tanks, oper-
tap into the rapid development and Electrovan, in 1966, but the technol- ate as an autonomous ambulance or a
volume production of the automotive ogy was not ready. The automaker 100-kW power center for disaster re-
market, as it is with lithium-ion bat- picked up fuel cells again around 2010, lief and be confgured as a commercial
teries for electric-powered aircraft. focusing on driving out cost. forklift or military weapon platform.
Compared with batteries, hydrogen GM developed the Colorado ZH2 The Army plans to evaluate the proto-
fuel cells have higher energy densities prototype ofroad electric truck, type, which can autonomously follow a
and can be recharged more quickly by tested over the past year by the U.S. manned leader or be ftted with a cab
reflling hydrogen tanks. Compared Army to evaluate its 50-kW power- and driven manually.
with gas-turbine APUs, fuel cells are generation capacity, lower acoustic The signifcance for aviation of
quiet and clean. and thermal signatures, extended SURUS and the Brownstown plant
You have a fast-charging electric range and the ability for soldiers to is in the maturity of fuel cells. We
vehicle with zero emissions that can go use the water produced as the fuel are testing with aerospace customers
10 times farther than with batteries, cells combine hydrogen and oxygen to now, proving the technology is robust
and we can use a common system on generate electricity. Versus a Hum- enough and meets environment
land, at sea and in the air, says Freese. vee, it can get 10 times closer without conditions at altitude, says Freese.
Our approach is modular, to invest in being audible, Freese says. And the Everything looks positive. The chal-
a cell structure that is also running in hottest part is the tires. lenge is fnding the right place to land
aircraft evaluations and undersea. In Two concerns with fuel cells are the the technology in the replacement
UUVs, fuel cells reduce overall vehicle safety and availability of hydrogen. The cycle. c

18 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 aviationWeek.com/awst


Washington Outlook Edited by Jen DiMascio
Jen DiMascio is Managing
Editor for Defense and Space
Join the conversation at:
AviationWeek.com/WashingtonOutlook
jennifer.dimascio@aviationweek.com

COMMENTARY Reserve Air Fleet programforeign


feets do not, says Jill Zuckman, chief

Comeback in Ukraine spokesperson for the group. c

FEDERAL EFFORT
In an attempt to avoid a patchwork of
Congress may ignore Trump proposal to cut aid diferent local ordinances regulating
how UAVs can be fown, a coalition of

A fter the 2014 invasion by Russia, Ukraines military was


struggling. It was short on money and combat-ready
weapons.
29 companies and organizations are
appealing to the Trump administration
for help. The coalition, led by the Asso-
ciation for Unmanned Vehicle Systems
Fixing those weapons was also a International, includes manufacturers,
problem, because more than half of corporations that will use unmanned
its spare parts and components came aircraft systems (UAS), such as
from the Russian Federation. In 2014- Amazon, and services companies such
16, the U.S. provided more than $1.3 as PrecisionHawk. It wants the U.S.
billion in foreign aid to help strengthen government to create a pilot program
UKROBORONPROM

Ukraines economy and defenses for state and local governments to


but stopped short of selling it lethal work with the FAA to integrate UAS
military equipment. Going forward, into U.S. airspace.
President Donald Trump has proposed Such collaboration will help the
cutting that assistance. Congress may The Ukranian defense industrys burgeoning industry, which could have
insist on more help, though. The Sen- Spectator UAV. an $82 billion impact on the economy,
ate has proposed $500 million for fscal the group says in an Oct. 11 letter to
2018, including a frst-time pledge of and I entirely agree with that, Lord Trump. Recent comments made by
defensive lethal gear. says, referring to the 2016 legislation Deputy U.S. Chief Technology Ofcer
But without the promise of military that aimed to reform the Pentagons Michael Kratsios are encouraging to
hardware, Ukraine has been busy. Of- sluggish acquisition system. But the the coalition, which says federal con-
fcials have reached out to NATO, uni- switch will not be all-encompassing. trol of airspace is the primary reason
versities and U.S. defense companies, Joint programs that span multiple ser- the U.S. maintains an aviation safety
including Boeing and Honeywell. In the vices, such as the F-35, will stay within record that is the envy of the world. c
last two years, the state-run company AT&L, she says. c
Ukroboronprom has tested precision LIFT OFF
missiles, developed radar, built an An- OPEN SKIES? After more than two decades since its
tonov An-132D prototype without Rus- The debate over whether U.S. skies dissolution, the newly revived National
sian parts and developed new UAVs, should be open to all foreign air car- Space Council has a punch list. Vice
including the Spectator, which has riers is heating back up as parties on President Mike Pence has tasked the
been tested in combat for more than a both sides of the issue wait for Trump council with completing three reviews
year. For Maj. Gen. Andriy Kovalchuk, to weigh in on calls by the big three in 45 days. One is to make a dramatic
chief of staf of the Airborne Forces of U.S. airlines to restrict subsidized Per- shift in NASA policyaway from a hu-
Ukraine, The important thing is for sian Gulf carriers (see page 17). man mission to an asteroid and toward
the Ukrainian Army to get up from Fred Smith, CEO of FedEx, reiter- cislunar space as a proving ground
its knees, stop the aggressor and be ated his companys support for open for missions to Mars and beyond. A
capable of much more. c skies agreementsand invoked second review will focus on regulatory
national security to make his case. changes benefcial to private space
DELEGATING AUTHORITY Without open skies, the military could companies, and a third will devise a
In what would be a fundamental change face longer transit times to get materi- strategic framework that integrates
for the Pentagon, Ellen Lord, former als to critical locations, Smith said in commercial space services and the
Textron CEO and new head of the de- a speech, adding that the result could potential for space exploration.
partments Acquisition, Technology and be impairing the militarys readiness When it comes to that framework,
Logistics (AT&L) ofce, hopes to ofoad levels and potentially our countrys the presidents national security advi-
day-to-day management of most major security. sor, H.R. McMaster, points out that
defense acquisition programs from the Hogwash, fres back the Partner- international cooperation is not just
Ofce of the Secretary of Defense. ship for Open and Fair Skies, the lobby- important for civil space eforts but for
Congress has been very, very clear ing group for American Airlines, Delta the military as well. According to Mc-
in the National Defense Authorization Air Lines and United Airlines. U.S. Master, even though the strategy pro-
Act that they want to shift oversight of airlines and their feet of widebodies motes Trumps America First slogan,
most programs back to the services, support our military through the Civil It doesnt mean America Alone. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 19


TECHNOLOGY

Creative Combination
Boeing bets on Aurora to come up with
innovative ideas for new products
Graham Warwick Washington

A
lphabetical seating put Aurora Flight Sci-
ences founder and CEO John Langford next
to Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg at a
meeting of U.S. aerospace industry leaders in May
2016. They had met before, on the U.S. Army Fu- AACUS Autonomy kit to convert
helicopters for unmanned resupply
ture Combat Systems program, so Langford seized
the moment to ask Muilenburg if Boeing would be
interested in collaborating with Aurora on its D8
advanced airliner concept.

That exchange led to the Oct. 5 an- ALIAS Drop-in


nouncement that Boeing has agreed to robotic copilot
acquire privately held Aurora, a leader to automate
in unmanned aircraft and autonomous- existing cockpits
systems research based in Manassas,
Virginia. Terms have not been dis- setts Institute of Tech-
closed, but Aurora is to become an in- nology (MIT), and is
dependent subsidiary under Boeings a pivotal part of why
corporate research and technology or- Boeing ended up so in-
ganization, which serves both its com- terested in us, he says.
mercial and defense business units Aurora subsequently
Analysts and the companies them- opened ofces in Silicon
selves have talked up the game- Valley near Stanford
changing importance of Auroras au-
tonomy capabilities to Boeings future
University and in Switzerland near
ETH Zurich, and strengthening ties
Orion Medium-
products, commercial and military, with this triumvirate of institutions is
altitude unmanned
and it will bring valuable expertise in key to its plans. The D8 fuel-efcient aircraft with 120-hr.+
areas ranging from optionally piloted airliner was conceived for NASA by endurance
aircraft to distributed electric propul- MIT professor Mark Drela. When we
sion. But the D8 airliner plays a pivotal said, This is a good idea, were going
role in how and why the two companies to build it, MIT laughed, says Lang-
have come together. ford, acknowledging that the industrial
Langford founded Aurora in 1989 to scope is mind-boggling.
develop robotic aircraft for climate re- Auroras ambition for the D8 illus-
search, a niche it quickly flled. Its the trates why it wants to be bought by
typical life cycle of a small business. Boeing. The company has built and
You have to be prepared to reinvent flown more than 30 unmanned air-
yourself as the market changes, says craft, but none have transitioned to
Langford. In the late 1990s, Aurora products. Over and over, Aurora has
diversified into advanced flight con- been the first to innovatebut then
trols and manufacturing, winning a we have been unable to capitalize on
contract to produce structures for our lead for lack of sufcient depth and AURORA FLIGHT SCIENCES PHOTOS AND CONCEPTS

Northrop Grummans Global Hawk. resources, Langford said in an Oct. 5 takeoff-and-landing] are
The flight-controls business was letter to employees. but three examples of ar-
spun of as Athena Technologies, which We successfully take the beachhead, eas in the past three years
was acquired by Rockwell Collins in but then reinforcements never arrive, that we have pioneered,
2008. We began the process of recre- and we are never able to push of the but then been unable to
ating what we just sold, says Langford. beach and move inland. Five-day-en- productize . . . due to lack
This included opening an R&D center durance aircraft, robotic co-pilots and of resources and depth,
in Cambridge, close to the Massachu- autonomous electric VTOL [vertical- he said.

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


The fundamental Beyond UAVs and the unconvention-
logic on both sides is al D8, Aurora is developing an electric
that Boeing will pro- vertical-takeof-and-landing (eVTOL)
vide that armada air taxi to fulfil Ubers vision of ur-
behind us. We will ban air mobility. Boeing is interested.
continue to innovate Whatever form air transport takes,
D8 Double-bubble airliner and fnd new beach- we want to be the leader, Hyslop says.
with boundary layer ingestion heads that they can A partnership around eVTOL will be
transition into large- right on our doorstep. He notes that in
various sizes and missions, a number
eVTOL Distributed-thrust of products could emerge.
electric aircraft for urban The deal is not about revenue
air mobility Herbert expects Aurora to add only
about $150 million to Boeings $90
scale products, Langford tells billion-plus in annual sales. It is about
Aviation Week. They have an commercializing innovations. This is
amazing industrial team, but really focused around taking our R&D
they need to be looking 20-30 and turning it into products, says
years ahead to stay suc- Langford. Being part of Hyslops or-
cessful in this business. ganization rather than one of the prod-
Autonomy is going uct groups means we will be able to
support them across the enterprise.
Centaur Optionally For Boeing, this will likely be a bolt-
piloted aircraft, based on acquisition without the price-earn-
on certifed Diamond ing ratios demanded for companies
with large revenue streams. But it
DA40
will be a signifcant payof for Auroras
patient shareholders, which include
to have a far-reaching early backers such as the Wells Foun-
impact on our products. dation, Global Environment Fund and
Weve already seen it on more recent investor Enlightenment
the defense side, says Capital.
Greg Hyslop, chief tech- Boeings plans for Aurora, follow-
nology ofcer and senior ing its investments in startups such
vice president of Boe- as hybrid-electric regional aircraft
ing Engineering, Test developer Zunum Aero (page 22), ap-
SideArm Runway independent and Technology. The pear to be its response to moves by
UAV launch-and-recovery system technology is matur- Airbus to embrace potentially disrup-
ing quickly, and its go- tive technologies. Airbus established
ing to be important for Silicon Valley outpost A3 in 2015 and
aerospace. To maintain has launched initiatives in urban air
safety in commercial mobility, hybrid-electric propulsion,
aviation, we are going unmanned aircraft and autonomy.
to need autonomy. We Langford, who will continue to lead
need to continue to Aurora, also sees the Boeing deal as
lead, and Aurora is a important to retaining and developing
unique capability for talent at both companies. Talent is a
us, he says. huge investment. It is also restless. You
Aurora is known have to keep them moving forward, he
as a leader in the says. Poaching [by West Coast tech
high-end and high- companies] has hit us hard, but now
altitude UAV market we will have career avenues to keep
and will add significant our people in the family.
autonomous technology With a workforce of only 550, there
to Boeing, says Canna- is a strong multidisciplinary element
cord Genuity analyst to engineering at Aurora. People here
Ken Herbert in a note are forced to operate outside the nor-
to investors. While this mal stovepipes, says Langford. We
transaction is small, we will be able to give Boeing people a
do believe it gives Boe- chance to experience that without the
XV-24A Lightning Strike ing the opportunity to company losing them. c
High-speed VTOL with hybrid-electric be at the forefront of au-
distributed propulsion tonomous innovation. With Michael Bruno in Washington

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 21


Technology

Regional Revivalist
Startup believes low operating costs
that are possible with electric propulsion
can rebuild regional air transport
Graham Warwick Washington

R
eaching back to the early days of region-
al aviation in its bid to bring air service
back to smaller communities, Boeing-
backed startup Zunum Aero has unveiled its
frst product: a 12-passenger hybrid-electric
commuter aircraft. Targeting operating
costs just 20-30% of those of similar-sized
turboprops available today, the aircraft
is planned for certifcation and
delivery in 2022.

Headquartered in Kirkland, Wash- haul regional routes: up to 700 mi. at Beech 1900. They averaged about 20
ington, Zunum emerged from stealth 340 mph. initially, increasing to 1,000 seats and about 150-mi. stage lengths.
mode in April with venture-capital mi. by 2030 and potentially 1,500 mi. For those of us that travel, that is al-
backing from Boeing and JetBlue Air- by the mid-2030s as battery technol- most unheard of now, Knapp says.
ways and the stated goal of rebuilding ogy improves. This compares with al- There are now well less than 300 [car-
the atrophied U.S. regional air trans- most 2,000 mi. today for the similarly riers], and they are averaging 60 seats
port market with a family of 10- to 50- sized Pilatus PC-12. and 450-mi. stages lengths. They are
seat aircraft using electric propulsion Zunum is targeting an operating not called regionals anymore.
for low operating costs. costincluding fuel, electricity and These airlines now fy large turbo-
We have been fairly cagey on what batteriesof 8 cents per seat-mile, or props and regional jets. They are us-
our first product might be. Now we $250 per hour. Thats an unbeatable ing the major airports. They need the
are saying the first aircraft we are number, says Knapp. You cant oper- longer runways, he says, arguing the
bringing to market is going to be a ate a [Boeing] 737 for that if you are regional market has been left without
regional-sized, up-to-12-passenger fying 300-500 mi. It would compare an economically viable aircraft to serve
commuter type, says Matt Knapp, Zu- with the [Bombardier] Q400, if you are it. Door-to-door times are worse than
num Aero chief technology ofcer and operating at 300-400-mi. range, and it they were 50 years ago, and we have
co-founder. You can confgure it with would be 3-5 times cheaper than run- left communities without any access
six seats for business class, but we ning similar-size aircraft, be it a PC-12 to air service. A lot of secondary cities
see the primary application as being or a [Beechcraft] King Air. have seen their air service decline as
a 9-seat business/economy or 12-seat Zunum believes dramatically lower the airlines have pulled out of hubs, or
all-economy commuter aircraft, serv- operating costs can revitalize a re- combined their hubs.
ing regional markets on point-to-point gional air transport system that has Zunums vision is of a distributed
and hub feeder routes. contracted as aircraft have increased regional network of some 4,000 ex-
Electric propulsion is possible be- in size. Back in 1980, there were close isting, smaller airports that would
cause Zunum is designing its aircraft to 300 small carriers in this country, not need the complex ticketing, se-
with limited range and speed for short- and they were operating things like the curity and baggage-handling infra-

22 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


Zunums 2022 Aircraft
by the Numbers Performance goals are based on the or, preferably for us, on combining
energy densities of lithium-ion batter- them, he says. Whether redundancy
Weights (lb.) ies now coming out of Teslas Gigafac- is required in turbogeneration is being
Max. takeoff ...........................................<12,500 tory, Knapp says. That is something discussed with the FAA.
that we could y on right now, though Zunum is working toward a pre-
Max. payload ............................................. 2,470
we might increase the electric genera- liminary design review in 2018 and
Standard fuel ................................................. 800 tion a bit or decrease the range a bit to a critical design review in 2019. For
Battery weight .........................<20% of MTOW match them. But batteries have been us, the big milestones are setting up a
improving at a pretty reliable rate, so high-power copper bird ground-test
we are prepared to y with batteries facility for the powertrain by the end of
that will be available in the next year the year, says Knapp. Following that
or two. will be a ying testbed, which is a con-
The series hybrid powertrain archi- verted airframe with an electric pow-
Performance ertrain in it. Flight tests are planned
tecture is agnostic to battery technol-
Max. cruise speed ................................ 340 mph ogy, he says. The batteries are housed for 2019.
Max. range ..................................... >700 mi. in modules, which are installed in the The company has strong confi-
Max. altitude ................................. 25,000 ft. wing, and can be switched out as dence in its low operating-cost pro-
Takeoff distance .............................. 2,200 ft. technology improves. We are pick- jections based on the savings achieved
Landing distance ............................ 2,500 ft. ing the correct architecture for what from using hybrid-electric propulsion
Time to 25,000 ft. ............................ 18 min. is available today, for what we need in other modes of transportation such
to certify and sell, but leaving our as buses. Some of those dont carry
Stall speed ......................................... 73 kt. across, such as regenerative braking,
options open, he says. Really the
Max. power ....................... 1-megawatt class only decision is its going to seat this but there are substantial reductions
Emissions ........................ <0.3 lb. CO2/ASM many people and y this fast, which in operating costs and substantial in-
Sideline noise ............................... 65 EPNdB dictates the aerodynamics. Beyond creases in operating efciency, espe-
Source: Zunum Aero that is a modular system, and we are cially at regional range, he says. The
not locking ourselves into any one as- low operating costs of the motors are
pect of it. not a big unknown.
Zunums intent is to allow the opera- Knapp has described Zunum as
tor to recharge the batteries or swap primarily a propulsion company and
Zunum is aiming for 2022 them between ights for a faster turn- is hoping to work with an airframer to
certication and delivery of its
initial 12-passenger hybrid-
electric commuter aircraft. The 2022 aircraft is similar in size
to a Pilatus PC-12, but Zunum is
ZUNMUN AERO CONCEPTS
aiming for 3-5 times lower
operating cost.
structure of major hubs. Everything
can go through biometrics, through
cellphones, through a portable data-
transfer device, so your infrastructure
needs can be as light as you want to
make them, Knapp says.
Potential customers range from ex-
isting operators through small com- Swappable batteries are
munities that lease a couple of aircraft integrated into the wings,
and a pool of pilots to provide subsi- while the turbogenerator
dized air service to pools of aircraft sits between the
providing on-demand transportation. ducted-fan propulsors.
We have conversations going with a
number of operators, both freight and
passenger, he says.
The 12-seat aircraft has a maximum
takeof weight less than 12,500 lb., en- around. Thats a great design chal- produce the aircraft. We are looking
abling certification using industry- lenge, says Knapp. Thats part of our for potential partners to do the air-
developed standards under the FAAs technology that we are not releasing frame, he says, declining to discuss
revamped Part 23 regulations. The details on at the moment. how Zunum is working with Boeing.
aircraft has a 1-megawatt-class series The company has decided to de- The plan of record is to build up a
hybrid-electric propulsion system with velop its own motor but has a request team able to do the full-stack devel-
a 500-kW-class turbogenerator burn- for information out to manufacturers opment of the complete aircraft, but
ing jet fuel and generating electricity for the turbogenerator. Weve invited we are actively looking for potential
to charge the batteries and drive the them to bid on both the turboshaft partners in the detailed design and
dual ducted fans. as a piece or the generator as a piece build of the aircraft. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 23


TECHNOLOGY

Sustaining Subsonic Auroras proposed XD8


will be a 52%-scale
demonstrator driven by
fans powered by a single
buried engine, the inlets
for which are mounted on
the fuselage sides.
from the future X-plane

NASA/AURORA FLIGHT SCIENCES


competition, Collier em-
phasizes. Once approved,
that solicitation will be
open competition, and may
attract more than the con-
cepts and companies we
Aurora acquisition gives Boeing pole position in have had engaged to date,
he says.
initial subsonic X-plane risk-reduction contracts Some new details of
the ve current concepts,
Guy Norris Los Angeles and the key challenges for
each, have also emerged.

F
acing continuing budget con- Boeing, Dzyne and Lockheed. The Boeings proposed BWB X-plane will
straints over its future subsonic evaluations are complete, and we made be a roughly half-scale demonstra-
X-plane flight-demonstrator immediate awards to Aurora, on the tor of a full-scale aircraft capable of
plan, NASA has awarded a limited se- double-bubble concept, and to Boeing, ranges up to 8,000 nm. Key priorities
ries of risk-reduction contracts to help focused on both TTBW and BWB con- for the Boeing demonstrator include
industry contenders reduce technolo- cepts. It is possible we may revisit the proving the blended-wing design will
gy risk and maintain momentum over proposals from Dzyne and Lockheed, meet targeted lift/drag objectives at
the intervening years, before the rst says Fay Collier, NASAs associate di- transonic speeds. Boeing will also
demonstrator takes to the skies in the rector for ight strategy. want to demonstrate that noise shield-
mid-2020s. It remains unclear howif at all ing [with engines mounted on top of
When the agency unveiled its New the Boeing acquisition of Aurora, the aircraft] really works. Theyre ex-
Aviation Horizons initiative in 2016, it announced on Oct. 5, will affect the pecting 38.4 dB [below current Stage
planned to follow the rst all-new X- overall competition for UEST. Aurora 4 noise levels], says Tony Washburn,
plane of the 2020sthe Quiet Super- will operate as a subsidiary of Boeing aerosciences lead at NASA Langley
sonic Technology (QueSST) low-boom Engineering, Test and Technology, the Research Center.
demonstratorwith a sequence of companys central research and devel- Designed for cruise speeds of Mach
subsonic X-plane programs initiated opment organization, but is expected 0.85, the BWB conguration benets
as frequently as 18 months apart. But to continue operating as a broadly in- aerodynamically from area ruling and
NASA did not receive the increase in dependent unit. Under current plans, structurally from a signicant degree
aeronautics funding it requested, and NASA expects to issue a draft request of span loading. However, one of the
although the $624 million sought for for proposals (RFP) for the UEST1 challenges is it doesnt have a cylin-
2018 is sufcient to safeguard QueSST, X-plane in scal 2018, with a nal RFP drical pressure vessel. We think the
the follow-on subsonic X-planes will be the following year. The intent is to se- Prseus (Pultruded Rod Stitched Ef-
rolled out at a slower rate than expect- lect two concepts to take through to ficient Unitized Structure) infused
ed over the late 2020s and beyond. preliminary design reviews, with a - composites is a good solution for
The five Ultra-Efficient Subsonic nalist to be chosen for the rst UEST that, says Washburn, referring to the
Technology (UEST) X-plane demon- X-plane. First ight would occur some- Boeing-developed material designed
strator concepts studied so far are time in the mid-2020s, with a second for noncylindrical cross-sections.
Aurora Flight Sciences double-bub- UEST2 X-plane due to follow five Testing will therefore also focus on
ble D8, Boeings blended-wing body years later. the damage tolerance of the compos-
(BWB) and transonic truss-braced The risk-reduction tasks are fo- ite material, as well as stability and
wing (TTBW), Dzyne Technologies cused on design and analysis activi- control characteristics of the BWB at
regional-jet BWB and Lockheed ties to be conducted over the next 12 this much larger scale.
Martins hybrid-wing body. In 2016, months by the industry partners that For the TTBW demonstrator, which
working with NASA, the contenders are deemed crucial by them to reduce Boeing plans to produce at 90% scale
performed system requirements de- the overall technical, cost and sched- based on a heavily modied DC-9/MD-
nition for each of the concepts and es- ule risk of their concept X-plane that 80 or 717, the test focus will be on the
tablished the associated risk posture, we studied last spring, notes Collier. performance of the concepts truss-
cost and schedule estimates. The task areas of interest include con- supported high-aspect-ratio wing.
Following the conclusion of this guration aerodynamics, propulsion- At this time, it looks like a Mach 0.8
work in May, NASA requested risk- airframe integration and structures. cruise vehicle, and thats pretty phe-
reduction proposals from Aurora, However, no one has been eliminated nomenal, Washburn said at the recent

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


The Boeing TTBW demonstrator
would mate a strut-supported high-
aspect-ratio wing with the fuselage
and engines of a yet-to-be-selected
member of the DC-9, MD-80 or 717
aircraft families.
The key test priority for Dzyne Tech-
nologies BWB will be on the pitch-piv-
oting landing gear, says Washburn. Set
further back on this design compared
to Boeings larger multideck BWB, the
aft location of the gear is congured to
enable the Dzyne conguration to be
NASA/BOEING sized with a single deck for regional
SAE AeroTech conference in Fort likely to be approved by regulatory au- airliner applications.
Worth. So there will be a lot of work thorities under current rules because For Lockheed Martin, the main fo-
on aerodynamic optimization and the of the risk of an uncontained failure cus for tests of the hybrid wing body
structural benet of the truss. Boeing in one engine damaging the other. Al- will be on the performance of the over-
wants to demonstrate a 100% increase though the Aurora design avoids this wing engine nacelles. Cantilevered
in aspect ratiothats an incredible with canted engine cores, the demon- on struts over the trailing edge, the
number. strator will require a special propul- overwing positioning enables higher-
The short chord wing produces sion system to be developed, he adds. bypass-ratio engines and is predicted
higher lift without increasing induced They will use a regular engine to pro- to produce 5% less drag than conven-
drag and is also more amenable to vide power and then decouple the fans tional underwing engines. The congu-
natural laminar ow, says Washburn. from it. On the X-plane they have inlets ration also provides acoustic shielding
But you have all these nonlinear aero- in the side of the fuselage to provide air and, at low speed, increases aircraft lift
elastic efects going on there and thats for the propulsion system. without a thrust or drag penalty. c
where all the risks are that need to be
retired. Then there is the question of
how to certify a nonstandard struc-
ture like that? The wing will also fold
to permit use of existing single-aisle
airport gates, though Boeing does not
Personal Prize
expect to incorporate this feature into
the X-plane.
Two-year ultra-compact personal-air-vehicle
For the Aurora D8 demonstrator,
the test will focus on proving the vi-
contest may enable aviations next great leap
ability of the lightweight structural Guy Norris Fort Worth
concept, which is used in the design

A
to combine two circular cross-sections s an ever-growing lineup of ve- enable the next great leap in avia-
to form a attened fuselage. The nal hicle concepts emerges for the tionpersonal ight.
design incorporates partial-height up- embryonic short-range urban- We invite the worlds innovators to
per and lower webs running the length air-transport market, a global competi- develop a safe, quiet, compact near-ver-
of the cabin and tied together at every tion has been launched to tackle what tical-takeof-and-landing personal ying
other frame by tension rods. is sometimes seen as the ultimate goal device that will carry one person 20 mi.
The 52%-scale demonstrator will of aviationcreating ever-smaller per- without refueling or recharging, says
also evaluate the performance of the sonal aircraft. GoFly Prize Group CEO Gwen Lighter.
boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) con- Sponsored by Boeing, the $2 million What the device looks like and how it
cept at the heart of the fuel-saving GoFly competition is aimed at develop- works is up to the innovators. Our y-
conguration. In this design, dubbed ing a safe, viable personal air vehicle. ing devices should be able to be used
XD8 by Aurora, distortion-tolerant The y-of of the nalist designs will by anyone, anywhere, from the most re-
fans embedded between twin vertical be on an as yet unannounced date in mote places to the most crowded cities.
tails will ingest slow-moving air over 2019. The prize will be awarded to the Whether you stand on it, strap it on, sit
the upper surface of the fuselage and developer of an everyone personal in it or get into it, thats all up to you to
reenergize the wake, reducing drag. flying device capable of being flown decide, she advises.
The reduced drag of the integrated by anyone at any time, says Lynne Lighter says the competition has
conguration makes this concept very Hopper, vice president of engineering, been launched because today is the
positive, says Washburn. modifications and maintenance for rst time in human history where we
However, there are some serious Boeing Global Services. can truly build these machines, not-
integration challenges, he adds. The In announcing the contestat the ing that a convergence of several break-
design places the powerplants side by SAE AeroTech 2017 convention here through technologies has made this a
side on the tail, an arrangement un- in SeptemberHopper said it could moment of achievable innovation. She

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 25


TECHNOLOGY

cites the development of autonomous The Pufn was outlined with a 50-
ground vehicles, increased battery and mi. range, more than double that
capacitor performance, lightweight required in the GoFly competition.
materials, and sense-and-avoid sys-
tems as pivotal to making the time ripe of $50,000 each, says Lighter.
for personal air vehicle development. The contest will culminate with a
She believes the timing for a global fly-off to determine the grand prize
contest is bolstered by the advent of winner, which will take place in the
3D printing and other types of rapid third quarter of 2019. The final can-
prototyping, noting that they have didates will be judged on best overall
opened up the design world to innova- performance in size, noise and speed. need to win a Phase 1 prize to proceed
tors outside of large corporations. The three y-of prizes planned are: to the second round, or even win a
The contest is divided into three $250,000 to the team developing the Phase 2 prize to qualify for the y-of.
phases, with the initial prizes due to smallest compliant device, $250,000 All are welcome, adds Lighter.
be awarded in May 2018. Ten prizes of to the quietest and $100,000 to the Safety is a priority, and teams are eli-
$20,000 each will be awarded for indi- team with the most disruptive design, gible to y either manned or unmanned,
vidual technical specications. At this deemed to be one that challenges the autonomously or controlled with a
point, this is purely a paper competi- state of the art. dummy occupant. We also require
tion for the rst phase. After that, we However, because of the challenges no single point of failure in systems or
begin the building phase and, in May of the contest, the organizers stress components [but do] require all teams
2019, we will be awarding four prizes that contenders do not necessarily to comply with FAA and international

BUSINESS

M&A Tempest Brews Meggitt, which Vertical says is a pe-


rennial favorite inside component
M&A discussions.
Industry observers think they know where to Of course, if GE is interested in a
strategic, multibillion-dollar acquisi-
look for more deals to emerge in A&D tion, Vertical has been opining all year
on the potential combination of GE
Michael Bruno Washington Aviation and Honeywell Aerospace
the latter being in play as Honeywell

W
ith United Technologies Doug Gates, Tom Mayor and other International reviews its business
Corp. buying Rockwell Col- KPMG consultants. portfolio at the behest of activist in-
lins, Northrop Grumman Many are already feeling pressure vestors.
acquiring Orbital ATK, and Boeing from shareholders to spend some of So what is keeping these deals from
planning to take over Aurora Flight their dry powder on a headline-grab- happening? Each deal is diferent, but
Sciences, observers could be forgiven bing investment, they continue. And most advisors cite one common ob-
for assuming that another wave of con- they recognize that prices for good stacle: price. According to Vertical,
solidation is hitting the A&D industry. quality assets are already skyrocket- valuations of publically traded com-
And, it is, if you know where to look ing. But they also know that the risks panies generally stand at the top end
next. associated with a major deal are higher of the historical range, now averaging
Some indicators point to certain today than ever before. 22 times earnings (22x) across A&D.
sectors, such as space or the aftermar- Clearly, many industry observers At the start of October, aerospace-
ket, or to targets of a specic size, as see good reasons to expect more deals, focused providers worldwide were
in midtier or smaller. Others spotlight as well as plenty of desirable targets to at 21.2x, with the U.S. sector at 22.6x
certain buyers, namely large-cap U.S. acquire across aerospace and defense. (Boeing at 24.3x), while Europe was at
and allied foreign companies or invest- On the commercial aerospace side, - 18.7x (Airbus at 18x). Defense globally
ment groups, and suggest they will be nancial analysts at Vertical Research was at 20.0x, with U.S. primes averag-
acquiring a select set of targets (see Partners say one of the most fruitful, ing 21.2x.
below). and thus most likely, tie-ups they see Despite those sky-high valua-
While many analysts, consultants could be aerostructures leader Spirit tions, M&A in aerospace and defense
and experts have their own predictions AeroSystems buying global engineer- marches on. We think that there are a
of where to look next for a big head- ing provider GKNs aerospace busi- number of issues driving the increase
line, increasingly the only widespread nessif not buying GKN entirely and in sector M&A, but two of these are
agreement is that mergers and acquisi- spinning of its automotive side. likely to be structural changes in the
tions (M&A) have become harder to do Other possibilities include materi- OEM/supplier relationship, and in
for all kinds of reasons, but there is no als and engineering company Arconic the aftermarket, Verticals Rob Stal-
letup in sight. buying composites and structures lard explains. OEMs have always put
The next few months may be rather provider Hexcel, and less likely, Gen- price pressure on the suppliers, and
stressful for most deal-makers in the eral Electrics aviation unit taking in if anything this has gotten worse in
A&D sector, says a recent report by engineering and subsystem-maker recent years.

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


als as well as experts in branding and et Astronautique in France.
marketing, will be available. Opinion within the industry is divid-
It truly takes a community to raise ed as to whether the GoFly competition
a whole new industry and revolution will help spark innovations that could,
in new technology, says Lighter, who for example, spawn technology for fu-
adds that a wide range of professional ture urban air vehicles. Mark Moore,

NASA
societies are supporting the GoFly com- the former NASA veteran of advanced
petition. Among them are the American projects and urban mobility who is
Helicopter Society (AHS), American now director of aviation for Uber, says
regulations, and all flight hours and Institute of Aeronautics and Astronau- innovations developed for GoFly could
testing [must be] logged. tics, Aircraft Owners and Pilots Asso- bubble up to the next level. We have
The contest is supported by a group ciation, Experimental Aircraft Associa- seen technology trickle down from
of technical masters and mentors who tion, Association for Unmanned Vehicle higher levels, but in this case it could
will host global webinar seminars for all Systems International, American Soci- move the other way, he predicts.
teams on a monthly basis. There will ety for Engineering Education, Aero- AHS International Executive Direc-
also be a diverse group of mentors avail- space Industries Association, General tor Mike Hirschberg disagrees. I dont
able for one-on-ones, Lighter adds. Ac- Aviation Manufacturers Association, think it will have any particular impact
cess to mentors for other disciplines SAE, Society of Experimental Test Pi- on Uber-type missions. Its more about
related to new-product development, lots, Royal Aeronautical Society in the developing interest in aviation than de-
including legal and funding profession- UK and the Association Aeronautique veloping a product, he says. c

What is diferent this time is that in given its involvement in space, mis- fense-and-space scenarios, including
previous upcycles of business activity, siles and unmanned aircraft. He notes Science Applications International
Tier 1 suppliers and below were able to that stock traders may also sense Corp. buying ManTech in government
compensate for OEM price pressures potential takeover possibilities for services, or an acquisition of Harris
by relying on strong growth in the af- unmanned specialist AeroVironment by General Dynamics, adding to its
termarket for their parts and systems. and defense electronics boutique defense electronics portfolio. Just for
But aftermarket growth since the 2008 Mercury Systems. kicks, Vertical also would not rule out
financial crisis and Great Recession Vertical also sees interesting de- a possible merger of Boeing Defense,
has been half what it was pre- Space and Security with Northrop
viously, making it a challenge Who Has the Most M&A Firepower in A&D? although this would test the Pentagons
to preserve margins, accord- DRY POWDER AS current ban on primes consolidating.
ing to Vertical. Indeed, growth COMPANY DRY POWDER % OF MARKET CAP Still, many of these deals reflect
this upcycle has averaged just BAE Systems 5,228 26% more of a roll-up approach, where
7%, compared with 12% before. Boeing 34,236 23 deal-makers and chief executives look
Canaccord Genuity aviation Booz Allen 507 9 to piece together business units, rather
analyst Ken Herbert notes BWX Technologies 743 14 than make wholesale acquisitions.
that industry consolidation CACI 60 2 Consolidation does not just have
within the tiers was picking Chemring 168 34
to be about large caps buying other
up for some time. It is impor- defense rms, says widely followed
Cobham (114) -3
tant to note that there could defense analyst Byron Callan of Capi-
CSRA (153) -3
be a step-up in larger com- tal Alpha Partners. There could be
pany consolidation, but that Engility (444) -38 more portfolio-shaping along the lines
consolidation in the aerospace General Dynamics 13,344 22 of the Lockheed Martin-Sikorsky-
sector in small-to-midsize Harris 1,450 9 IS&GS [information technology unit
companies has been moving Huntington Ingalls 2,579 26 spinof ] deals or there could be merg-
forward, he says. L3 Technologies 1,090 7 ers among midtier equals, he says.
In the commercial sector, Leidos (1,565) -18 Among other benefits, buying
he sees more consolidation Lockheed Martin 8,382 9 smaller companies can help bring in
coming among structures Mantech 450 27 key technologies or product enhance-
suppliers. In defense and Northrop Grumman 6,682 14 ments at a lower cost or with less risk
space, Herbert eyes Kratos Orbital ATK 952 12 than if the prime tried to develop these
Defense & Space as a target, Qinetiq 635 50
internally. Boeings Oct. 5 announce-
ment that it is pursuing Aurora for
So-called dry powder, as Raytheon 9,674 18
undisclosed terms is a good example.
measured by the latest net Rockwell Collins 3,809 18
Clearly, big buyers appear to have
debt loading and pretax SAIC 138 5 the wherewithal. Callan recently
earnings estimates, com- Thales 7,949 40 looked at the dry powder capability
pared with a companys Ultra Electronics 181 13 of potential large buyers, (i.e., the com-
Sources: Capital Alpha Partners, Bloomberg
market capitalization. bination of their cash on hand, near-

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 27


TECHNOLOGY

Boeings move to acquire Aurora


Flight Sciences would bring in new
technology across A&D, including
Auroras work on the fuel-efcient
D8 airliner project.
players face demands to fnd new tech-
nology oferings fast, or globalize their
footprints.
KPMG riffs on these changes as
additional proof that this time is dif-
ferent: A&D deal-making capabilities
will likely also need to evolve, in part
AURORA FLIGHT SCIENCES to refect a new type of acquisition tar-
term earnings power and additional ditional M&A among legacy aerospace getone where intellectual property
debt-loading abilities) and found that and defense manufacturers and provid- and talent matter more than assets
a number of publicly traded defense- ers. They do not include M&A involving and inventory, say Gates and Mayor.
focused companies still have the ca- private equity owners or through joint But growth-driven A&D players will
pacity to do deals without issuing new ventures, partnerships and venture also likely need to broaden their focus
equity (see table on page 27). capital (VC) investing, including the to overseas markets and new inno-
That is important, as shareholders growing ranks of corporate VC arms vative capabilities, as well as [their]
frown upon issuing new stock, because within the legacy primes and OEMs. ability to execute nontraditional M&A
it dilutes the value of their existing Accordingly, joint ventures, venture transaction, e.g., partnerships and al-
shares, potentially raising their ire capital and other deal-making tools liances, particularly when looking to
toward such deals. But when share- outside traditional M&A may also capitalize on new growth markets and
holders do not take new hitsas in soon proliferate as heritage industry partnership opportunities. c
Northrops all-cash ofer for Orbital
then buy-side shareholders tend to be COMMERCIAL AVIATION
more sanguine. Northrop shareholders
do not have to vote on the proposal,
only Orbitals, who are receiving a pre-
mium of about 22%.
Having cash on hand for deals
Monarchs Lessons
is helping another strategic buyer. Brexit, one of many factors in the airlines
Many analysts cite habitual acquirer
L3 Technologies as a major player, demise, remains a key concern for competitors
especially after recently losing a few
hoped-for contract awards, including Helen Massy-Beresford Paris
a new a 10-year, $387 million contract

D
to support U.S. Army and Air Force isappointed passengers slumped 2014reducing feet size, cutting costs
rotary-wing training at Fort Rucker, wearily on their suitcases in and refocusing on proftable routes
Alabama. crowded departure halls: It is did not go far enough. Costs at Mon-
Cowen and Co. analysts say L3 still an all-too familiar scene. This time it arch still remained signifcantly above
has at least $1 billion available for more wasnt a strike, storm or computer those of key competitors such as Ry-
so-called tuck-in M&A deals, despite a malfunction that left thousands of va- anair, which made Monarch vulnerable
string of recent bolt-on additions, in- cationers strandedit was the sudden to price wars and variations in demand
cluding Doss Aviation, Adaptive Meth- collapse on Oct. 2 of Monarch Airlines in the intensely competitive low-cost
ods and OceanServer Technology. after investor Greybull Capital balked airline sector, Heracleous says.
We think this strategy makes at injecting more money in the troubled After its turnaround in 2015, Mon-
sense, since L3 is the only major con- leisure operator to keep it going. arch was seeking to increase scale,
solidator in the Tier 2 space, and its fo- Monarch had weathered 50 years of either by making acquisitions itself or
cused on synergistic deals that can be aviation highs and lows as a charter and by being acquired by another low-cost
integrated into L3, versus the straight low-cost scheduled carrier, but it could carrier, he adds. None of these options
financial roll-ups that characterized not, in the end, stand up to rising cost worked out, however, leaving Monarch
L3s early days in M&A, Cowens pressure, increased security fears and in a very difcult strategic position
Cai von Rumohr says. Moreover, the that big unknown: Brexit. competing in a cutthroat sector, with-
current low-interest-rate environment While the suddenness of Mon- out the scale, brand strength and ef-
increases the potential for accretive archs collapse was unexpected, its ciency needed to survive in that sector.
deals to further boost 2018 earnings bankruptcy is no great surprise, says Even if they benefit from greater
per share. Unlike the larger primes, Loizos Heracleous, professor of strat- scale, other budget carriers based or
L3 faces negligible risk of regulatory egy at Warwick Business School. The with major operations in the UK will be
hurdles to its M&A. turnaround plan implemented when looking closely at the factors that led to
All of these scenarios focus on tra- Greybull Capital came to the rescue in Monarchs sudden demise for clues on

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


how to navigate the uncertainty of the UK airlines could fnd they have to Industry observers believe a solution
next few months and years. stop fyingits that serious, says Brian will be found, But the contingency plans
Amid calls for an inquiry into what Strutton, general secretary of the Brit- airlines are putting in placesuch as
went wrong for Monarch and the huge ish Airline Pilots Association. This EasyJets creation of an air operator
cost to the UK taxpayer of repatriat- would impact passengers long before certificate in Austriahighlight how
ing stranded passengersand while March 2019 because airlines couldnt serious the consequences would be if an
more details emerge of Boeings role sell advance tickets and, frankly, would agreement cannot be found. It is in no-
in keeping the airline fying in its fnal passengers risk buying them? It is ut- bodys interest to end up in a situation
monthscarriers such as Ryanair, ter madness for anyone to think that a where either UK or European airlines
EasyJet, TUI and Thomas Cook Air- Brexit no deal would be anything but a networks are disrupted, says Herac-
lines will be focusing on the factors un- total disaster for our world-leading UK leous. Businesses are more adaptive
derlying Monarchs collapse. aviation sector and beyond. than politics. c
First on the list are the security is-
sues that have sapped travel demand to
United States Postal Service
destinations such as Tunisia and Egypt, Statement of Ownership, Management, and Circulation (Requester Publications Only)
which forced Monarch to channel pas- 1. Publication Title: Aviation Week & Space Technology
2. Publication Number: 0005-2145
sengers into more traditional Mediter- 3. Filing Date: 10/2/17
ranean leisure destinations, including 4. Issue of Frequency: Bi-Weekly with one issue in August
5. Number of Issues Published Annually: 25
Spain and Portugal. 6. Annual Subscription Price: $129
7. Complete Mailing Address of Known Office of Publication (Not Printer): Penton, Media, Inc., 9800 Metcalf Contact Person: Eileen Zelenka
Unfortunately for Monarch, its big- Ave., Overland Park, Johnson County, KS 66212-2216 Telephone: 216-931-9194
ger rivals had the same idea, and with 8. Complete Mailing Address of Headquarters or General Business Office of Publisher (Not Printer): Penton Media, Inc. ,1166 Avenue of Americas 10th
Floor New York, NY 10036
only about 6 million passengers last 9. Full Names and Complete Mailing Addresses of Publisher, Editor, and Managing Editor - Publisher: Gregory Hamilton, Penton Media, Inc., 1166 Avenue of the
Americas, 10th Floor, New York, NY 10036; Editor: Joseph Anselmo, Penton Media, Inc., 1911 Fort Myer Drive, Suite 600, Arlington, VA 22209; Managing
year, the ailing airline did not have the Editor: James Asker, Penton Media, Inc., 1911 Fort Myer Drive, Suite 600, Arlington, VA 22209

market clout to compete. Owner - Full name and complete mailing address: Penton Media, Inc., 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036; Penton Operating Holdings, Inc.
10.
Ultimately, Monarchs exit will help (owns 100% of the stock of Penton Media, Inc.), 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036

the other low-cost players still in busi- 11. Known Bondholders, Mortgagees, and Other Security Holders Owning or Holding 1 Percent or More of Total Amount of Bonds, Mortgages or Other
ness, Heracleous says, although be- Securities: None
12. Tax Status (For completion by nonprofit organizations authorized to mail at nonprofit rates) (Check one)
cause of its small size, it will not help The purpose, function, and nonprofit status of this organization and the exempt status for federal income tax purposes: N/A
13. Publication Title: Aviation Week & Space Technology
much. The underlying structure of the Average No. Copies
industry will not change, he says. 14. Issue Date for Circulation Data: 9/18/17 Each Issue During No. Copies of Single Issue Published
15. Extent and Nature of Circulation Preceding 12 Months Nearest to Filing Date
But in the short term, rivals such as a. Total Number of Copies (Net press run) 65,477 65,673
b. Legitimate Paid and/or Requested Distribution (By Mail and Outside the Mail)
EasyJet and Norwegian will be looking (1) Outside County Paid/Requested Mail Subscriptions stated on PS Form 3541. (Include direct written 41,295 41,600
to take over Monarchs valuable slots, request from recipient, telemarketing and Internet requests from recipient, paid subscriptions including
nominal rate subscriptions, employer requests, advertisers proof copies, and exchange copies.)
including at Londons Luton and Gat-
(2) In-County Paid/Requested Mail Subscriptions stated on PS Form 3541. (Include direct written request 0 0
wick airports, and Monarchs former from recipient, telemarketing and Internet requests from recipient, paid subscriptions including nominal
competitors may snap up some of its rate subscriptions, employer requests, advertisers proof copies, and exchange copies.)

2,100 employees facing layofs, includ- (3) Sales Through Dealers and Carriers, Street Vendors, Counter Sales, and Other Paid or Requested 6,739 7,245
Distribution Outside USPS
ing about 400 pilots. (4) Requested Copies Distributed by Other Mail Classes Through the USPS (e.g. First-Class Mail) 21 22
There is another factor as well: Brexit c. Total Paid and/or Requested Distribution (Sum of 15b (1), (2), (3), and (4)) 48,055 48,867
d. Nonrequested Distribution (By Mail and Outside the Mail)
cannot be blamed entirely for the Mon- (1) Outside County Nonrequested Copies Stated on PS Form 3541 (include Sample copies, Requests 5,628 7,020
arch collapse, but the pounds fall since Over 3 years old, Requests induced by a Premium, Bulk Sales and Requests including Association
Requests, Names obtained from Business Directories, Lists, and other sources)
the referendum has driven up costs
(2) In-County Nonrequested Copies Stated on PS Form 3541 (include Sample copies, Requests Over 3 0 0
for all budget airlines, which largely years old, Requests induced by a Premium, Bulk Sales and Requests including Association Requests,
earn their revenues in pounds but pay Names obtained from Business Directories, Lists, and other sources)
(3) Nonrequested Copies Distributed Through the USPS by Other Classes of Mail (e.g. First-Class Mail, 0 0
for fuel and leasing in U.S. dollars and Nonrequestor Copies mailed in excess of 10% Limit mailed at Standard Mail or Package Services
Rates)
European airport charges in euros. It (4) Nonrequested Copies Distributed Outside the Mail (Include Pickup Stands, Trade Shows, Showrooms 8,279 5,676
has also diminished spending power and Other Sources)

for cost-conscious consumers who now e. Total Nonrequested Distribution (Sum of 15d (1), (2), (3), and (4)) 13,906 12,696

are more likely to favor a staycation. f. Total Distribution (Sum of 15c and 15e) 61,961 61,563
g. Copies not Distributed 3,516 4,110
Budget carriers still in operation h. Total (Sum of 15f and g) 65,477 65,673
are concerned about the rising costs i. Percent Paid and/or Requested Circulation (15c divided by 15f times 100) 77.56% 79.38%
related to Brexitboth for themselves 16 Electronic Copy Circulation
a. Requested and Paid Electronic Copies 31,788 32,787
and their customersbut a much more
b. Total Requested and Paid Print Copies (Line 15c)+ Requested/Paid Electronic Copies (Line 16a) 79,843 81,654
pressing concern is the uncertainty c. Total Requested Copy Distribution Distribution(Line 15f) + Requested/Paid Electronic Copies 93,749 94,350
over their trafc rights and the rules on (Line 16a)

foreign ownership of airlines once the d. Percent Paid an/dor Requested Circulaltion (Both Print & Electronic Copies) 85.17% 86.54%
(16b diveded by 16c x 100)
UK leaves the European Union (EU). x I certify that 50% of all my distribution copies (electronic and print) are legitimate requests or paid copies:
Airlines have repeatedly sounded the 17. Publication of Statement of Ownership for a Requester Publication is required and will be printed in the:

alarm on the lack of clarity as UK-EU issue of this publication. 10/16/2017


18 Date
negotiations continue. Schedule plan- Laurie Becker-Sola 9/28/17
ning for 2019 will begin at the start of I certify that all information furnished on this form is true and complete. I understand that anyone who furnishes false or misleading information on this form or who
2018, so carriers need to know if they omits material or information requested on the form may be subject to criminal sanctions (including fines and imprisonment) and/or civil sanctions (including civil
penalties).
will be allowed to operate.
PS Form 3526-R, July 2014

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 29


BUSINESS AVIATION

Building Wave nearby Henderson Executive Airport.


While the media was focusing most-
ly on program updates and industry
Business aviation confdence is growing, news, much of the private conversa-
tions around the booths were about
but orders and new projects are still pending the broad array of new aircraft either
poised to enter service, be launched or
Guy Norris, John Morris and Molly McMillin Las Vegas selected for development. Jetcraft, the
international aircraft sales, marketing

T
he news at a subdued National appearance of the second PC-24 proto- and ownership strategies consultancy,
Business Aviation Association type, underlining Pilatus Aircrafts con- revealed many of these projects when
2017 show was more about what fdence in the near-term completion of it developed its latest 10-year forecast.
was not announced, while the in- the light jets certifcation test program. Jetcraft fnds that designers of new
creased tempo of behind-the-scenes Textron opened the orderbook for its aircraft are refreshing some of the cur-
activity suggests next years event new large-cabin Citation Hemisphere, rently popular modelsand developing
could well be brimming with new air- while Embraer introduced its internally plans for new ones. Most activity is in
craft launches. redesigned Phenom 300E. New prob- the large to ultra-long-range categories,
Inevitably overshadowed by the lems with Safrans Silvercrest engine, where more expensive airplanes gener-
mass shooting tragedy that struck the which is slated to power the Hemi- ate more revenue. Not counting at least
city just a week before the convention, sphere, emerged to threaten further de- four potential supersonic business air-
the event nonetheless attracted around lays to the troubled Dassault 5X beyond craft already announced, Jetcraft fore-
27,000 attendees and had a sold-out 2020 (see article below). Gulfstream, casts as many as 19 new aircraft will
static display of 100 aircraft, reflect- which had been widely tipped to reveal enter service in 2017-23. In the very
ing growing confdence in the return- plans for a new large-cabin aircraft light jet category, these include updates
ing strength across many sectors of loosely dubbed the G400NG, focused to the Cessna M2+ Mustang and Em-
the business jet market. Highlights in- instead on updates to the G500 and braer Phenom 100V+; light jet projects
cluded the show debut of Bombardiers G600 programs. The manufacturer also include the Learjet 70XR and Phenom
Global 7000, the largest purpose-made displayed the frst fully outftted cabin 300E. Other new projects identifed in
business jet ever developed, and the for the G600 at the static display at the super-light sector are the Learjet

SAFRAN
TROUBLING TIMES
Guy Norris Las Vegas

D assault Aviation and Safran Aircraft Engines are planning


what is certain to be an intense meeting to devise a new
schedule for the already delayed Falcon 5X big-cabin business
jet, following more problems with the aircrafts Silvercrest
engine.
Some glitches related to engine development have already
delayed the aircrafts entry into service to 2020, and Eric Trap-
pier, Dassaults chairman and CEO, says it is too early to know
the full extent of how the new round of delays will afect the
revised schedule. First announced at the National Business Compressor surge margin issues were discovered
during envelope-expansion fights of the improved
Aviation Association (NBAA) annual convention in 2006, the
Silvercrest engine mounted on Safrans Gulfstream II
Silvercrest was launched by Dassault to power the Falcon 5X, fying testbed.
whose originally targeted entry-into-service date was 2017.
Safran informed us, just before we left for NBAA-Las Vegas, in development close to the Silvercrests 11,450-lb.-thrust class.
that ongoing tests have revealed some performance issues with We are now trying to fx the problem with Safran and to keep all
the high-pressure compressor (HPC), Trappier says, clearly our options open, Trappier says. He adds that the consequences
exasperated by this new snag. We have not yet analyzed all the of this unfortunate issue and defning an appropriate solution will
consequences, but we already know that the 5Xs entry into ser- take some time.
vice, which was rescheduled to 2020, will be delayed again. Safrans commercial engines vice president, Cedric Goubet,
Trappier says it is also too early to say whether the latest says the extent of the delay will depend on the particular set of
hitch might push Dassault to consider an alternative engine sup- fxes selected. He also confrms that the revised schedule will be
plier. However, despite signs of renewed interest in the mid- and known before year-end: The Silvercrest is an all-new engine but
super-midsize engine market, there are no other new turbofans with proven technologies and is aimed at reaching performance

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


75XR and Cessna XLS+, while in the ments) in 2026. With 33% growth over 15 to 20 business jets over 2017 results,
super-midsize arena it identifies the the forecast period, Jetcrafts 2017 fore- followed by 3-4% annual increases in the
Challenger 350+ with a targeted debut cast calls for 8,349 unit deliveries repre- years that follow, the forecast says.
in 2022. senting $252 billion in revenues (based Underlying market conditions also
In the large-cabin category, Jetcraft on 2017 pricing) to be realized by 2026. support increased optimism, says Dean
forecasts the development of the Chal- Honeywell Aerospaces 2018-27 fore- Roberts, director of marketing analy-
lenger 700, Cessna Hemisphere, Em- cast, meanwhile, projects 10-year global sis for Rolls-Royces business aircraft.
braer Legacy 700 and, potentially in demand for 8,300 business jet deliver- There is a lot of confidence that the
2022, the Gulfstream G400NG. The ies worth $249 billion. Including com- leading economic indicators are in posi-
super-large sector could finally see mercial airliners modifed into business tive territory for the long term of busi-
Dassaults Falcon 5X around 2021 and, aircraft, the forecast projects demand ness aviation in the U.S. Whats more
with more certainty, the Gulfstream for 8,600 aircraft worth $264 billion and intriguing is that the rest of the market
G500 next year. Similarly the report predicts 2017 deliveries of 620-640 new has now turned into positive territory.
includes the debut of the ultra-long- jets, a decline of about 30 jets from 2016 In China, customer confdence is very
range Global 7000 in 2018 and, over fgures. As orders slow for mature air- positive. For the past two years, inter-
following years, the service entry of craft models, many buyers are waiting national trade has been close to record
the Global 8000 and Gulfstream G600. for new models to enter service, says lows over a 20-year period, and . . . over
It also speculates that Dassaults next Gaetan Handfield, Honeywell senior the last 3-4 quarters . . . it has gone
new program will be dubbed the Falcon manager of market research. strongly positive. Thats a good sign for
9X, while Gulfstream may soon unveil a Many also are waiting for used air- long-range business jets, says Roberts.
new project called the G750. Of note is craft pricing to frm up before they trade Rolls-Royce also tracks activity with
the projected emergence of a business up to a new business jet. There are luxury brands such as Louis Vuitton,
jet version of Bombardiers C Series for several new and exciting aircraft mod- Burberry and Tifanys and the buying
service entry around 2021. els coming to market, which will drive patterns of high-net-worth individuals.
Jetcraft was one of several compa- solid growth in new business purchases Over the past 3-4 quarters, thats . . .
nies to forecast solid growth with the in the midterm and long term, says Ben gone pretty close to exponential. On
global business aviation installed base Driggs, president of Honeywell Aero- that basis, we would expect the order
of just more than 21,000 aircraft, ex- space Americas Aftermarket. In 2018, intake to start to uptick in maybe 6-12
pected to surpass 28,000 (net retire- deliveries are expected to improve by months time, Roberts adds. c

levels unrivaled for this market segment. This quest has been but we want to minimize that, and we will not add stages or
more challenging than originally thought, he acknowledges. vanes, he says.
Problems cropped up in September during fight tests of the Meanwhile, the engine continues to fy a restricted fight
latest confguration of the Silvercrest incorporating improve- envelope on the GII, and data continues to help guide Safrans
ments destined for the service-entry standard on the -5X. We engineering team to the best solution. The engine can still be
had made a lot of progress, and solutions to most of our previous used in its current confguration for several certifcation tests,
difculties were validated and verifed during the tests of this according to Safran.
new confguration. But then this issue appeared; clearly it was The latest fight-test discovery is bad, but it is not a catas-
very disappointing, says Goubet. trophe, Goubet says, striving to strike a balance. We remain
During tests on the companys Gulfstream II fying testbed, confdent well achieve what we set out to do with this engine .
the HPC sufered acceleration, deceleration and stall issues at . . and in the progress weve made with this engine over the past
high-altitude and low-speed conditions. The GII is capable of fy- two years. . . . We will get there with a competitive engine in this
ing at 45,000 ft. and the potential for additional efciency gains market segment.
was being investigated when the problems occurred. The engine has also been selected for Textron Aviations
In an unusual confguration for an engine in this higher-thrust Citation Hemisphere, and although the U.S. manufacturer says
range, the compressor combines a four-stage axial unit with a it remains committed to the Silvercrest, it is unclear whether
single centrifugal stage. The issue is with the axial part, not the the newest delay may impact this program, which is slated for
centrifugal, confrms Goubet, who adds that the problem has frst fight in 2019. Meanwhile, Dassault continues fight tests
nothing to do with the overall architecture of the compressor. of the Falcon 5X powered by an interim standard of Silvercrest
We have to optimize the settings of the compressor and engine. Since making its frst fight on July 5, the prototype
maybe introduce some modifcations to really recover all the has amassed around 50 fight hours and achieved a top speed
[surge] margin we need to operate as expected across the fight of Mach 0.8 and maximum altitude of 41,000 ft. We are very
envelope, Goubet says. However, we have enough knowledge happy with the way the aircraft handles and also with the perfor-
to know it is unlikely that it will be sufcient to merely optimize mance of the systems. The aircraft has a new generation of the
the settings, the control laws and positioning of the variable sta- digital fight-control system, and from what we have seen so far
tor vanes. That will help to achieve a portion [of the losses] but it works very well, says Olivier Villa, senior executive vice presi-
not all the way. We may look at some fowpath modifcations, dent of Dassault Falcon Civil Aircraft. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 31


BIOFUELS

The airline industry has been slow to


follow United Airlines lead in buying
biofuels in commercial quantities.

of the fuel in 2050 could be from sus-


tainable sources, with the right policy
measures in placeconservationists
question the environmental impact.
Brad Schallert, deputy director of
international climate cooperation at
the World Wildlife Fund, told summit
delegates he nds some of the proj-
ects [devoted to operating] a large
amount of aviation . . . on biofuels
UNITED AIRLINES troubling. While there are some good
fuels out there, Schallert says, how

Running on Fumes do we know that a large amount wont


have a bad efect on the biosphere?
Ron van Manen, program manager
Severe lag in biofuel production could of the EUs Clean Sky 2 Joint Under-
taking, points out that with global air
hobble emission-reduction goals transport traffic growing by 4-5% a
year, by 2050 the sector could be four
Kerry Reals Geneva times the size it was in 2005. That
would leave a significant gap to be

W
ith efciency gains from air- There are 33 years remaining lled by biofuels, he says, adding and
frame and engine technology on our collective pledge on CO2, and I dont see that happening.
improvements considered in- propulsion will be a key part of that, ATAGs Gill says IATA believes
sufcient to meet the International Air says Epstein, referring to the Pratt a basket of measures is needed to
Transport Associations (IATA) 2050 & Whitney geared turbofan. The fu- achieve the longer-term environmental
emissions-reduction target, the only ture will be geared engines running on goalsincluding development of alter-
conceivable way to do so is through low-carbon sustainable jet fuels. That native fuels and new technology, plus
the widespread use of biofuels. But is the only way of reducing CO2 from air traffic management reformbut
concerns over the speed at which sus- our transport aircraft. that limiting growth is not an option.
tainable aviation fuels can be certied Electrication is another option, and Our analysis has always been based
and supplies sufcient produced leave there have been recent developments on decoupling the growth in trafc from
a question as to whether the industry on this front, including EasyJet parter- the growth in emissions, Gill tells Avia-
will be able halve its carbon-dioxide ing with U.S. company Wright Electric tion Week. Trying to put an articial
(CO2) emissions in the next 33 years. to develop an all-electric, short-haul barrier on [air transport growth] would
Speakers at the Air Transport Ac- aircraft within a decade. But the con- not have a good efect. Developing coun-
tion Group (ATAG) Global Sustainable sensus among experts at the ATAG tries would be loath to see their eco-
Aviation Summit here acknowledged summit was that achieving electric and nomic growth slowing down.
that meeting the 2050 emissions tar- hybrid-electric ights, while promising, There are calls for the aviation in-
get would be very challenging and a will be further into the future than pro- dustry to accelerate its pace to reduce
monumental task. However, industry duction of biofuels and unlikely to be emissions because, as Ovais Sarmad,
representatives are still hoping its suitable for long-haul aircraft. deputy executive secretary of the Unit-
record and experience in innovating There are signs that the fledgling ed Nations Framework Convention on
and achieving the seemingly impos- sustainable aviation fuel sector is Climate Change, puts it, we no longer
sible will put it in a strong position to starting to ramp up, but there is a long have the luxury of time.
address the emissions challenge. way to go before the volume needed to Tomorrow is now today. Climate
Alan Epstein, vice president of meet the 2050 target can be produced. change is happening before our eyes,
technology and environment at Pratt Bruno Miller, managing director of and the action we take within the next
& Whitney, says that none of the 50% fuels at Fulcrum BioEnergy, is con- ve years will determine whether we
reduction will come from [aircraft] cerned about the speed at which dif- are successful or not, says Sarmad.
technology, when considered against ferent sustainable fuel pathways are While the industry has made prog-
the rapid rate at which the air trans- being certied, noting: One fuel ap- ress, its climate footprint continues to
port sector is growing. proved every year is great, but we cant grow rapidly, he says. We understand
Technology will barely let us keep wait 25 years to get fuels approved. We and recognize your eforts to become
up, Epstein says. The only way we should be approving ve to six a year. more sustainable and that youve made
will reduce CO2 substantially is to go to Even if sufcient volume can be pro- significant progress. We understand
low-carbon energy. For aviation, this ducedand ATAG Executive Director what we are asking you to do is not easy,
means use of alternative fuels, he adds. Michael Gill believes that up to 100% but neither is the task at hand. c

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


DEFENSE

Future Army Milley says, the Army needs Operation Desert Storm-like
overmatch. Those priorities are not randomly out there,
he explains. We want to win by ofense and mastering the
The U.S. service prioritizes next-gen fundamentals. You dont win on the defense.
Of the modernization priorities, the Army is specifcally
James Drew Washington looking at a family of next-generation combat vehicles and
rotorcraft rather than block upgrades. For long-range pre-

T
he U.S. Army is reforming how it buys weapons in what cision fres, air and missile defense, networks and soldier
may be its most signifcant acquisition shake-up in more lethality, it is pursuing a mix of additional current-generation
than 40 years. Acting Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy weaponry with upgrades, modifcations and new equipment.
has directed the consolidation of the materiel concept, de- Milley and McCarthy made it clear during their joint press
velopment and procurement process from idea to delivery conference at AUSA that these modernization priorities will
under one new overarching command. take the lions share of new investmentand programs that
Recommendations regarding this new command will come are not a priority could be reviewed and eliminated.
from a new task force headed by Lt. Gen. Ed Cardon, which Many eforts are underway, such as the Long-Range Preci-
this month embarked on a 120-day review process of all sion Fires program to develop a slimmer, longer-range succes-
Army acquisition. The impetus is a growing realization that sor to the 1980s-era Army Tactical Missile System (Atacms).
the Army is modernizing too slowly and losing its long-held Raytheon and Lockheed Martin are under contract to develop
advantage against Russia and China in long-range artillery, competing prototypes of a 400-499-km (250-310-mi.) guided
munitions, armor, mobility and air defense. ballistic missile under a 34-month technology maturation and
The command will be charged with executing the Armys risk-reduction phase. Raytheon is ofering its new DeepStrike
new modernization strategy and addressing six key areas, missile, with frst fight test planned for 2019.
listed by funding priority: 1) long range-precision fres, 2) next- The Army is also ramping up its investment in multido-
generation combat vehicles, 3) future vertical lift platforms, main weapons to target threats on land, at sea, in the air and
4) mobile and expeditionary networking, 5) air and missile even space or cyberspace. To target ships, it is experimenting
defense capabilities and 6) soldier lethality. with a seeker-enabled Maritime Atacms and funded a live
Speaking at the Association of the U.S. Armys (AUSA) demonstration of Raytheon and Kongsbergs land-fred Naval
annual exposition in Washington, McCarthy said his service Strike Missile. The Army is developing a purpose-built system
is at an infection point and must reform how its procures through the Land-Based Anti-Ship Missile program, which
weaponry if it is to prevail in future conficts. will develop and demonstrate technologies for engaging and
The equipment our soldiers usethe Abrams, Bradley, defeating air defense artillery systems, program ofcials say.
Black Hawk, Apache and Patriotwere designed in the 1970s, For next-generation rotorcraft, the Bell Helicopter V-280
felded in the 1980s and battle-tested in the 1990s during Valor and Sikorsky-Boeing SB-1 Defant will soon enter fight
Operation Desert Storm and the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Mc- testing under the Armys Joint Multi-Role Technology Dem-
Carthy said. These systems have been continuously and in- onstrator program, a precursor to the Army-led, multiservice
crementally upgraded since their debut, but there is a limit to Future Vertical Lift acquisition program. The V-280, a third-
the incremental improvements that can be made before they generation tiltrotor, will fy within the next month, and the
no longer ofer the degree of overmatch the Army requires. SB-1 is being prepped for fight by mid-2018.
McCarthys vision is Army modernization under one roof, For short-range air defense and counter-UAV missions, the
with earlier operator input into weapon system development showroom foor at AUSA was flled with combat vehicles out-
and more prototyping. The command will be formed from ftted with AIM-9X, Hellfre and Stinger counter-air missiles
existing organizations and force structures and report directly as well as laser systems with beam-steering turrets. All the
to the Armys vice chief of staf as well as McCarthy, who was big-name defense contractors are getting involved, presenting
recently confrmed as the services undersecretary. modifed short-range air defense systems. c
For Army Chief of Staf Gen. Mark Milley, the reason for
shaking up the acquisition construct is simple: If you dont
adapt to the changing environment, you die, he says.
Continual low-intensity conficts in the Middle East since
2001 and the collapse of major modernization initiatives like
the Boeing-Sikorsky RAH-66 Comanche and Future Combat
Systems has led the Army to invest in spiraled protection
and lethality upgrades for its primary rotorcraft and ground
vehicles, instead of producing next-generation systems. Over
the past two decades, it has shortchanged its short-range air
defense and long-range artillery
programs in favor of immediate The Armys No. 3
priorities. modernization priority
Milley says its new modern- is a family of next-
ization priorities refect a pivot generation rotorcraft
back to the fundamentals of land to eventually replace
warfare: shoot, move, communi- the long-serving
cate, protect and sustain. UH-60 Black Hawk
If pressed into a conflict, and AH-64 Apache.
SIKORSKY/BOEING

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 33


DEFENSE

Expanding known, but C105, from 2016, was big-


ger than C103. Span rose to 11 m (36 ft.)
from 10.7 m (see table) and length
Two-seat version and European weapons by 40 cm (16 in.). At least half of the
lengthening was probably associated
added to Seouls new ghter with enlargement of the wing, since the
chord and therefore the carry-through
Bradley Perrett Beijing and Kim Minseok Seoul structure in the fuselage had to be lon-
ger. The wing was moved back in rela-

T
he Korea Aerospace Industries ofcials have conrmed that a second tion to the fuselage, so its trailing edges
(KAI) KF-X ghter keeps grow- seat will be available. were now behind the leading edges of
ing. What began as a concept The extra place is unrelated to the the ns. The fuselage appears to have
design as big as the Eurofighter Ty- increase in size. Rather, the aircraft been slightly widened.
phoon has repeatedly gained length has been enlarged to create more Also, the canopy shape changed to
and wingspan and is now likely to be space and to give it a better aerody- improve some unstated aspect of per-
heavier than that earlier aircraft. namic shape, DAPA ofcials said at a formance, perhaps stealth, while the
The indigenous fighter will have brieng on the program. F414 was incorporated and the intake
a two-seat version, developers have Thanks to DAPAs release of low- design was revised. The F414 was the
conrmed, following years of depic- resolution plan drawings of the latest bulkiest and most powerful engine un-
tions of it with just one seat. And the ve design iterations, it is now pos- der consideration, so its selection may
type will be equipped with MBDA
Meteor and Diehl IRIS-T air-to-air With development
missiles, says South Koreas defense due to be completed in
procurement ofce, outlining a plan 2026, the KF-Xs wing
to avoid complete reliance on U.S. and fuselage have
weapons. both grown during
The twin-engine KF-X is intended to several design
y in 2022. The Republic of Korea Air
Force and KAI have said the service
iterations. C103 C104
will receive its rst unit in 2024, but
KF-Xs delivered before 2026 must be KF-X Design Evolution
developmental units. The rst version Design C103 (2012) C105 (2016) C107 (2017) Euroghter Typhoon
is not due to be fully developed until Span 10.7 m (35.2 ft) 11 m (36.1 ft.) 11.2 m (36.7 ft.) 10.9 m (35.9 ft.)
2026 and will lack features intended Length 15.6 m (51.3 ft.)* 16 m (52.5 ft.) 16.8 m (55.1 ft.) 15.9 m (52.3 ft.)
for later variants. Indonesia is a junior
Height 4.5 m (14.8 ft.) n.a. 4.8 m (15.7 ft.) 5.3 m (17.3 ft.)
partner in the KF-X program.
Empty Weight 10.9 metric tons 11.1 metric tons n.a. 11.2 metric tons
The defense ministrys Agency
Maximum Takeoff Weight 24 metric tons 24.5 metric tons n.a. 23.5 metric tons
for Defense Development (ADD) led
Dry Thrust (X 2) > 12,000 lb. 14,000 lb. 14,000 lb. 13,500 lb.
preliminary design and is still deeply
Afterburning Thrust (X 2) > 18,000 lb. 22,000 lb. 22,000 lb. 20,000 lb.
involved as KAI works on detail
development. The military procure- *Previously stated as 15.7 m n.a.: not available Sources: DAPA, Euroghter, U.S. Navy
ment ofce, the Defense Acquisition
Program Administration (DAPA), sible to tell some of the story of the have had something to do with the en-
chose the General Electric F414 engine evolution of the KF-X since 2012. Al- largement of the design.
for the KF-X in 2016. though the aircraft has grown and the Despite these changes, empty mass
The newest design, C107, is the lat- wing has been enlarged, the designers rose only 2%, to 11.1 metric tons, sug-
est in a series that began sometime have stuck with the planform of the gesting weight savings had been found.
before 2012. The iteration numbered mainplane: It has 40 deg. of leading- The aircraft was still just a little light-
C104 was chosen as the basis of the edge sweep, 10 deg. of forward sweep er than the Typhoon, the ghter with
KF-X when Lockheed Martin won the on the trailing edge and an aspect which the KF-X has been most compa-
separate F-X Phase 3 import competi- ratio of 2.7. rable in size.
tion in 2013 with the F-35 Lightning; The first design in the series was Further growth appeared in C106:
the competition winner was required C101. By 2012, it had evolved to C103, span, wing area and fuselage length all
to support KF-X development. which had the general configuration increased. The cockpit moved forward.
This design series has featured tail- that has persisted until now. At the time The dimensions of C106 are unknown
planes; an alternative concept with ca- of program launch, C103 was thought but C107, for which figures are avail-
nard control surfaces would have been to be the current design, but in 2014 able, is apparently about the same size.
used had a European supplier won F-X designers had proceeded to C104, add- While C107s span, up 20 cm, is only
Phase 3. Designs before C107 have ing conformal antennas and refining modestly greater than C105s, the fuse-
been shown only as single-seaters, the placement of internal equipment. lage is considerably longer. The aircraft
though a model of a two-seat version Low-resolution drawings suggest little is now fully 1.2 m longer than it was in
was glimpsed on a television report change to the external shape, if any. the C103 concept. Empty mass is un-
about KAI in 2016. In describing C107, The dimensions of C104 are un- available but it is now likely to be sig-

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


nicantly greater than the Typhoons. air-to-air missiles, respectively. isfactory supplier to the developmental
The shapes of the forward fuselage South Korea also plans to use the stage of a program is well placed for
and the inlets have been improved in most equivalent U.S. weapons, the follow-on volume work.
C107. The wing roots are extended AIM-120 Amraam and AIM-9 Side- The launcher suits carriage and
forward, blending with the fuselage, winder. Negotiations for integration of ejection of internally and externally
while the tail ns have moved forward those missiles are not complete, DAPA mounted weapons, Cobham says.
and, with trailing edges now swept for- says. Washington agreed in June to The KF-X was initially designed with
ward at a greater angle than before, give technical information on its two a weapon bay, but installation of this
are almost cropped triangles. They air-to-air missiles and nine other U.S. feature has been deferred until a sec-
have probably been heightened in com- weapons, but this will only be data of ond version is developed.
pensation for the loss of moment arm the level called 1A: size, weight and ba- Elsewhere in the program, a criti-
caused by their relocation; the whole sic interface particulars. South Korea cal foreign authorization has been
aircraft has gained 30 cm of height is still seeking level 1B information: full received. In April, Washington said
from C103s 4.5 m. interface data needed for integrating Indonesia could have access to U.S.
The engines were closely spaced be- and operating the weapons. technology used in KF-X development,
fore C107; now they are farther apart, Full-scale development of the though it seems unlikely that it will re-
improving survivability and providing KF-X began in late 2015 after years ceive all the information shared with
volume between them. The nose is of national debate. One objective is to South Korea. Lockheed Martin has
blunter in plan, rather like that on de- free South Korea from depending on sent 30 engineers to KAI, DAPA says.
signs for Japans proposed indigenous Washingtons permission in integrat- By the end of the year, that number
will grow to 40. Indonesia has sent 80
engineers to KAI.
South Korea is developing four ma-
jor avionics systems for the KF-X: a
radar with an active, electronically
scanned array (AESA); an infrared
search-and-track system; an electro-
optical targeting pod; and an elec-
C105 C106 C107 tronic warfare suite.
COLIN THROM/AW&ST Radar development is due to be
completed by 2026 at a cost of 360 bil-
ghter. More changes can be expected, ing weapons, as it must when it buys lion won ($320 million), says DAPA.
because three more design iterations fighters straight from the U.S. and The sensor will have about 1,000
will be prepared by June 2018. would if it equipped the KF-X with transmit-and-receive modules. Criti-
The reason for the second seat has U.S. avionics. cal design review for the radar is due
not been disclosed. Fighters designed A related objective is to avoid the in mid-2019.
before the 1990s routinely have two- U.S. vetoing an export contract for the Hanwha and ADD are building what
seat versions. In some cases, the KF-X by withholding the weapons from they call a hardware demonstration
second seat is now used not just for the intended customer. But the ghter model, combining a Hanhwa AESA
training but for carrying another crew will be subject to U.S. export controls, antenna and power supply with a re-
member in combat, as became popu- anyway, because it will use the F414. ceiver-exciter and processor from Elta
lar during and after the Vietnam War. Cobham will supply weapon car- Systems Ltd. The Israeli company was
But the F-22 Raptor, F-35 and Avic riage and launch equipment for the de- chosen this year to validate Hanwhas
Chengdu J-20 have only single-seat velopment program under a contract radar development program, but its
versions, relying on advanced simula- that probably sets the company up for role will evidently be rather deeper
tion to prepare pilots for solo ights. volume production. than that.
Provision for a second seat in the KF-X The ejection launcher, featuring a Hanwha completed the antenna
may indicate that the types avionics long stroke to shove weapons safely and power supply in June, says DAPA,
will not be sufficiently advanced to away from the aircraft at 9 m per sec., adding that the two components will
support the most demanding strike suits the AIM-120 and Meteor, says be sent to Elta in September for as-
missions without two crew members. Cobham, announcing its order. The sembly into a complete radar that will
MBDA and Diehl have agreed to company will deliver an unspecified be tested until March 2018.
supply Meteor and IRIS-T missiles, number of launchers in 2020 under the Another item, called AESA tech-
respectively, says DAPA, presumably contract, which it says is worth more nology demonstration equipment,
meaning that terms have been settled. than 7 million ($9.2 million). has been built. Tested in the back of
But South Korea still needs the per- The timing and value indicate that a C-130H transport with the rear door
mission of Germany to use the IRIS- this is a contract for equipment for open, it had about 400 transmit-and-
T and from the countries behind the prototype and perhaps early produc- receive modules.
MBDA consortiumBritain, France tion aircraft, probably also including South Korea requires 120 KF-Xs and
and Italyfor the Meteor. There is no engineering support. 60 KAI FA-50 light-attack aircraft to
indication of when government autho- Cobham does not mention the pros- replace 34 Lockheed Martin F-16 Block
rization will be received. The Meteor pect of supplying the launcher for the 32s and 140 F-5E/Fs. Indonesia report-
and IRIS-T are long- and short-range full production run of KF-Xs, but a sat- edly wants to buy 50 KF-Xs. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 35


ROTORCRAFT

SIEMENS
Going Greener

Helicopters are fnding a role in


the rapid rise of wind energy
Tony Osborne London Current regulations put a limit on the size of the aircraft that can be used
for wind-farm support, but larger types may be needed as turbines move

T
he rapid growth in ofshore wind farther ofshore.
farms is generating a new and
rapidly growing market for heli- and their equipment can be winched If one of these turbines were shut
copters. Vast felds of turbines are be- down to perform maintenance work. down and required maintenance, it
ing used to harvest ofshore winds as When required, the turbines are would be left until the next day, be-
countries turn to wind power to meet designed to move into a feathered cause the economic impact is relatively
future energy demands and greener positionlike an upside-down three- minimal, Lars Christian Munch, an avi-
political agendas. And a handful of air- pointed starso that a helicopter can ation specialist with Danish renewable
craftoperating mostly in Denmark, perform a winching operation safely, energy company Dong Energy, said at
Germany and the UKare being used without conflict between helicopter the Helitech event in London on Oct. 3.
to support them. and turbine blades. But a new wave of larger-scale tur-
The number of helicopters involved The current regulatory framework bines, measuring 180 m (590 ft.) from
in supporting these projects looks set for wind-farm helicopter operations is sea level to the top of the turbine blade,
to expand as the turbines not only grow based on the UK Civil Aviation Author- can produce 8 megawatts of electric-
larger but also move farther ofshore. itys CAP 437 requirements. These call ity. Manufacturers are even designing
According to Airbus Helicopters, as for helicopters to stay at least the diam- turbines that will top 220 m in height.
many as 10,000 new turbines will be eter of one rotor away from the back of One of these shutting down has an
installed over the next 20 years, and the turbine blade, while the rotor-blade impact on the economics of the farm,
the company believes that with at least tip should stay at least 4 m (13 ft.) from said Munch. This will mean technicians
one helicopter required to support 80 the turbine blade. may soon have to be deployed to the
turbines, the market will need at least These rules put restrictions on how turbines and winched down even at
125 helicopters to enable that growth. the aircraft can be used. Currently, night, requiring training for new skill
And that is not just in Europe: More wind-farm support contractors are us- sets, including the use of night-vision
wind farms are also being planned for ing types such as the Airbus H135 and goggles, as such farms become more
the U.S. East Coast and Southeast Asia. H145 light-twins. Contracts have also prevalent in the coming years.
These turbines, along with their un- recently been awarded for use of Leon- Operators may also face the chal-
manned offshore substations (OSS), ardos AW169. But the regulations are in lenge of distance. Regardless of how
require regular maintenance and in- their infancy, and there is recognition in environmentally friendly the wind
spections. While this could be done what is still a small industry that there farms may be, they remain something
by ship, the sheer size of the turbine will soon be increased demands placed of a blot on the landscape, so develop-
felds, the risks in transferring person- on the helicopters and their crews. ers are building them farther out over
nel from ships, and the topside loca- Operators are concerned wind-farm the horizon. Britains Hornsea Project
tion of much of the equipment needing servicing will be pigeonholed as carry- Onewhich will use 174 turbines to
servicing means that helicopters are ing the same risks as for oil and gas. produce 1.2 gigawatts of powerwill
better-suited to the task. It is compa- Work on OSS do not carry the same be located 120 km (75 mi.) of the coast,
rable to how the helicopter has become risk as on oil and gas platforms loaded posing questions as to how helicopters
a critical tool for the ofshore oil and with fammable materials, they note. will be used to support them.
gas industry. The larger turbines mean helicop- Among the ideas is to use the he-
Most large turbines are now built ters will need to be on-call virtually lipad-equipped OSS as a base to per-
with support by helicopter in mind. The around the clock to deal with any main- form hub-and-spoke operations. Heli-
turbine nacelle, which contains most tenance issues. The UKs Greater Gab- copters would fy from the land base to
of the generating equipment and the bard wind farm, located 14 mi. of the the OSS and then from there fy back
pivoting elements, are equipped with Norfolk coast, uses turbines capable of and forth to the turbines that need
hoisting platforms so that technicians generating 3.6 megawatts. maintaining. c

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


RotoRcRAft

Peak Performance Chauvancy. But we will progressively


introduce new technology and ele-
ments to reach the 3,000-shp target.
Safrans Aneto provides engine alternative As a result, Tech3000 develop-
ment will continue to run in
for Leonardos AW189 parallel, delivering the
building blocks for the
Tony Osborne London higher-power engine.
While the Aneto-1K

S
afran has lifted the covers has a similar architec-
on a new family of dual-use ture to the RTM322,
turboshaft engines envisaged for there are no common
super-medium-lift and future heavy-lift parts. The more pow-
helicopters. erful versions will fea-
The 2,500-3,000+ shp Aneto fam- ture a new compressor
ily, named after the highest mountain and hot section.
in the Pyrenees, builds on technolo- The Aneto Safran is also intro-
gies from the RTM322the military family will evolve in ducing advanced manufac-
engine developed with Rolls-Royce the coming years, with turing processes. The inlet
and now entirely owned by Safran the 3,000-shp version guide vane system features
emerging in the early 2020s.

an
and the latters internally funded additive-manufactured parts,

fr
Sa
Tech3000 research program. as does the gyratory combustion
Unveiled Oct. 3 during the Helitech helicopter, so it seems likely the more chamber.
industry event in London, develop- powerful derivatives of Aneto could be The engine has also been designed
ment is so far along that the engine onboard Airbuss X6, the fy-by-wire re- to be ready for future hybrid and dis-
has already undergone flight tests placement for the Super Puma family. tributed power systems. Safran and
and will be ofered as an alternative Florent Chauvancy, Safrans vice Airbus are jointly exploring the poten-
powerplant for Leonardos AW189 president for heavy helicopter engine tial of an eco-mode, shutting down one
twin-engine super-medium helicopter, programs, says his company has beat of the two engines in cruise fight and
Safran says. the competition to market, noting that then spinning up the second engine
the closest competitor is using high-voltage electric motors
Leonardo

the U.S. Armys Improved when the additional power is needed.


Turbine Engine Program Leonardo is planning to offer the
powerplant, which is due Aneto alongside the incumbent Gen-
to enter service in 2025. eral Electric CT7 engine.
There is a market for The European helicopter manufac-
Leonardo plans to ofer turer has generally shied away from
offering more than one powerplant
the Aneto alongside for its commercial models, although
the incumbent General it does ofer a Pratt & Whitney or Saf-
Electric CT7-2E1. ran option for its AW109 light-twin.
around 7,000 new super- Installation of the Aneto requires
medium and -heavy heli- some minor changes to the top-deck
copters over the next 20 structure and the engine cowls.
years, says Chauvancy, The engine is a good match, says
although not all that Chauvancy. It will improve the types
More than 35 fights with the 2,544- market will be accessible. hot-and-high performance, boost the
shp Aneto-1K have been performed Aneto is being promoted for heli- mission capabilities and increase its
in the reengined aircraft, which is copters in the 8-15-metric-ton catego- growth potential, he contends.
notionally referred to as the AW189K. ry. The X6, Indias indigenous Multi- Because the Aneto is free of U.S.
First fight took place on March 9, Role Helicopter, a mockup of which International Trafc in Arms Regula-
and service entry is planned for the was displayed at the Aero India air tions, this could make it an attractive
fourth quarter of 2018. show last February, could also beneft powerplant for the AW189s military
Several more powerful versions of from the Aneto family. derivative, the AW149, which the com-
the Aneto are set to follow later, with Safran contends that the engines pany is looking to export more widely.
the 3,000+ shp Dash 3 powerplant will deliver up to 25% more power As part of this, the airframer is also
likely to emerge in the early 2020s. than similar engines of the same vol- working on a future attack helicopter
Previously, Safran turboshafts have ume and could deliver a 15% increase incorporating the AW149s dynamic
been developed in close coordination in fuel economy compared to current- systems. The Aneto could play a part
with Airbus. Safrans Tech800 even- generation turbines. in this program as well.
tually emerged as the Arrano, com- These engines will share some Leonardo says a new or alternative
pleting development conveniently in commonality, some characteris- engine for the AW149 is not a prior-
time for use on Airbuss H160 medium tics, some modules and parts, says ity but does not rule out the Aneto. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 37


RotoRcRAft

that it requires no modifcation to the


landing sites.
Krysinski says the pilot could point
the camera at the helipad/deck on
which he/she wants to land to activate
the system, or the camera could po-
tentially be pointed using GPS coor-
dinates.
Later versions of the system could
also carry a laser to perform light-de-

Airbus envisages the Eagle making


landings on helipadssuch as this
one in downtown Mexico City
entirely autonomously.
tection and ranging (lidar) functions.
Krysinski says lidar would allow the
system to be used in poor-visibility
situations, although he notes that pro-
Airbus Helicopters cessing algorithms and the blending of

All-Seeing Eye imagery from cameras able to see in


other spectrums can improve the abil-
ity to peer through haze and mist.
Some electro-optical camera manu-
Eagle sensor could aid Airbuss vision facturers already ofer such capabilities.
for urban air mobility Adding lidar could aid in identifying
potential obstacles and other aircraft
Tony Osborne London in the vicinity, and Airbus Helicopters
is working on how best to display this

A
irbus is beginning fight trials value of this is being able to couple this information to pilots.
of a new sensor that could pave technology with the autopilot; it takes Krysinski says the system could
the way for fully autonomous away considerable workload from the also assist with landing on moving
landings on oil rigs and helidecks. pilot, he notes. platforms such ship decks, a capabil-
Project EagleEye for Augmented The company is working with some ity that could beneft the next genera-
Guidance for Landing Extensionhas yet-to-be disclosed startup companies tion of shipborne unmanned vertical-
already been through extensive ground on the technology, and Krysinski antici- takeof-and-landing (VTOL) systems.
testing and is due to soon take fight on pates the system will be ready by 2020. It is unclear whether the system
one of the companys H225 demonstra- The production version, he says, would be compatible with the com-
tion aircraft. will take the form of an electro-opti- panys VSR700 VTOL UAV, which is
The technology, which combines cal camera pod, similar to those used based on the Guimbal Cabri light heli-
high-definition cameras, image pro- on helicopters for surveillance duties. copter currently under development.
cessing and the companys experience This pod will be equipped with three Although Krysinski would not say
in four-axis autopilots, could assist Air- high-definition camera sensors con- which product would be the first to
buss vision for urban air mobility sys- nected to the image-processing unit. beneft from the technology, company
tems, allowing the air vehicles to land Once the cameras have been guided videos show the optronic turret ftted
at alternative landing zones as well as to look at the landing point, the pro- to the nose of the CityAirbus urban air
provide a sense-and-avoid capability. cessing software has been designed mobility system, a full-size demonstra-
In its current prototype form, the to fnd typical helipad attributes. Heli- tor that is due to fy in 2018.
system has eight gyro-stabilized cam- decks and helipads are subject to regu- This is a multiplatform solution,
eras connected to an image processor latory standards, notably in terms of says Krysinski. It can be applied to
that uses algorithms to note the posi- layout and design. Although the mark- all kinds of helicopters.
tion of a helipad or helideck on top of a ings and layout can difer globally, the An obvious use for the system would
building. The processor then feeds data system can be trained to diferentiate be to streamline landings on ofshore oil
into the aircrafts automatic fight con- these elements. and gas platforms. Airbus has already
trol system and autopilot, and should, Other algorithms in the system developed its RigN Fly approach
if all goes to plan, allow the pilot to per- can be used for object detection and system that autonomously flies the
form an entirely hands-of approach. tracking as well as reduction of digital helicopter to a missed approach point.
This is a frst step to full autonomy, noise, a by-product of image-capturing, Pilots can then decide whether to go
said Tomasz Krysinski, Airbus Helicop- which often occurs when sensors are around or proceed to land. The system
ters vice president for research and tuned to high sensitivity. The noise can was certifed on the H225 and has sub-
technology, at the Helitech industry impact the usability of the image. sequently been added to Airbuss H175
event in London on Oct. 3. The key A key advantage of the system is super-medium platform. c

38 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


V-280 Valor of its Bell 525 Relentless civil helicop-
ters in a tragic test mishap in 2016, Bell
wants to ensure V-280 flight testing
Bells next-gen tiltrotor ready for frst fight goes as smoothly and safely as pos-
sible. The company has laid out a test
James Drew Amarillo, Texas schedule but will not rush to arbitrary
milestones.

T
he next-generation tiltrotor that has been designed from scratch to be We only have one airplane and the
Bell Helicopter says should re- more ergonomic, producible, maintain- crews lives are important to us, which
place the 1970s-era UH-60 Black able, repairable and less expensive, with is why we have a methodical testing re-
Hawk is about to take fight here. a fyaway price roughly equivalent to gime planned, Gehler says. Weve done
The V-280 Valor is Bells submission that of the Boeing AH-64 Apache. It is failure injections into the SIL to prepare
for the U.S. Armys Joint Multi-Role promoted for utility, attack and combat pilots for any issues and concerns.
(JMR) Technology Demonstrator pro- search-and-rescue missions. Gehler is confident that the V-280
gram, a precursor to the multiservice The nearest opportunity to make will cruise past its advertised maximum
Future Vertical Lift (FVL) acquisition Valor a reality is FVL Capability Set 3 airspeed of 280 kt. to perhaps greater
to replace long-serving legacy helicop- (CS3), a procurement being jointly pur- than 300 kt., as desired by the Army and
ters, including the Black Hawk. The sued by the Army and Marine Corps to Marines. Its optimal long-range cruise
company has begun restrained ground replace the Black Hawk and Bell H-1 speed is 230 kt., the company says.
testing, including powering on, lighting Huey/Cobra series by the mid-2030s. Bell also hopes to beat the minimum
the engines and turning rotors. The Bell is trying to convince the De- performance requirement in high and
next step is an unrestrained powered fense Department to compress the hot conditions (6,000 ft./95F [35C]) by
test, during which Valor probably will FVL CS3 schedule and jump straight going up to 8,000 ft./95F.
lift of the ground, which counts as the

BEll HElICOPTER
unofcial frst fight.
Bell V-280 program manager Chris
Bells V-280 is undergoing ground testing ahead of
Gehler says the true first flight will frst fight in late October or early November.
occur in late October or early Novem-
ber, when the aircraft hovers 20-30 ft.
off the ground for 1-2 hr. of powered
hover testing. Valor will probably fly
6-9 months ahead of its competitor, the
Sikorsky-Boeing SB-1 Defant, which is
taking form at Sikorskys rotorcraft de-
velopment center in West Palm Beach,
Florida.
Sikorsky and Boeing might have
fallen behind Bell, but they remain
stoic in their pursuit of, and belief in,
the X2-based SB-1 confguration as the
ultimate Black Hawk successor.
During a media tour of the V-280 into engineering and manufacturing de- The prototype is powered by two
at the Bell production facility in Ama- velopment by validating Valors design 5,000-shp-class General Electric
rillo on Sept. 28, Gehler said he wishes through hundreds of hours of extensive T64-419A engines borrowed from the
Sikorsky and Boeing well, but he be- fight testing. Sikorsky CH-53E Super Stallion. Other
lieves Valor will prove to be the more Bell initially will check of seven dif- candidate engines for the V-280 include
mature and capable platform. He says a ferent test cards over about 7 hr. of the V-22s Rolls-Royce AE1107 and the
family of tiltrotors would best meet the hover and trafc-pattern testing before CH-53K King Stallions newly certifed
Armys needs under FVL, scaling from picking up speed and transitioning into GE38/T408, which at 7,500 shp would
the light and middleweight classes up airplane mode with propellers tilted probably be overpowered for the V-280.
to a super-heavy Boeing CH-47 Chinook forward. The conversion takes place Gehler says engine manufactur-
or Lockheed Martin C-130 replacement. between 70 and 120 kt. Gehler expects ers are working on lighter and more
[V-280] will revolutionize military to move into airplane mode by year-end, efcient models in the optimal 5,000-
operations through its speed, range and before beginning fight envelope expan- 6,000-shp range that could be available
payload, says Vince Tobin, Bells execu- sion up to 280 kt. and perhaps beyond in the 2019-20 time frame.
tive vice president for military business. to 304-305 kt. next year. For Bell V-280 Build Team Manager
The V-280 will be an excellent comple- A cadre of five Bell test pilots and Jeff Josselyn, the past two years of
ment to the V-22 already felded. V-22 three Army pilots will be putting the construction have been a labor of love.
remains in active production at Boeings aircraft through its paces, frst in the There wont be a dry eye once she
plant in Philadelphia and Bells Amarillo Valor fight simulator and system inte- fies, Josselyn says. Were really look-
site. Bell says the V-280 will take tiltro- gration laboratory (SIL) and then in the ing forward to getting air underneath
tor technology to a whole new level. Us- actual demonstration aircraft. these tires. Were all very proud of this
ing lessons learned from the V-22, Valor Having lost two test pilots and one aircraft. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 39


ConneCted AerospACe

Sense
of Direction
Sensors that are more reliable and intelligent
are required as aircraft connectivity
provides access to more data

Graham Warwick Washington

C
onnecting aircraft to access and analyze the mass of data
they generate is driving demand for more, and smarter,
sensors to collect and disseminate that data in reliability-
enhancing and bandwidth-conserving ways that beneft opera- Dassault
tors and manufacturers alike.
As aircraft are connected by high- sensors. Our Integral Health Monitor- ing correctly. That is the way it self-di-
bandwidth data buses internally and ing sensor has the capability to detect agnoses, Smith says. The sensor sends
wireless communications links exter- a fault at the sensor itself, he says, a digital failure message to the aircrafts
nally, one of the key requirements is which can signifcantly reduce aircraft electronics control unit and from there
the need to know if the sensor itself time on the ground. Now an alert that to maintenance on the ground.
is working and not sending false data. a sensor has failed in fight can be sent The new sensors are in production,
Where we see the industry going is to the ground via satellite communica- and Honeywell is targeting critical
to prognostics and diagnostics at the tions, and maintainers can have a new system applications where the sensors
sensor level, says Phil Smith, senior sensor waiting at the gate. are easily accessible and replaceable
product manager for aerospace busi- Proximity sensors are widely used at the gate. If you are going to ofer
ness within Honeywells Sensing and on aircraft, including on landing gear, airlines diagnostics and prognostics at
Productivity Solutions unit. thrust-reverser actuators, cargo and the entry level, it makes sense for it to
In larger aircraft, if the pilot selects passenger doors and exits, auxiliary be on parts that are easy to swap out,
the landing gear, they cannot see if it power unit inlet doors and emergency not something deep in the wing that
lowers and so must rely on green lights ram-air turbines. A traditional proxim- requires the plane to be taxied over to
in the cockpit to indicate the gear is ity sensor only detects whether a tar- the maintenance hangar, Smith says.
down and locked. If one of the green get is near or far. If a proximity sensor Well certainly try and put this
lights doesnt illuminate, you assume fails, it can fail with a signal of near or into some of our more complex sys-
you have a problem with one of the far, so you cant tell if it is working or tems, more deeply embedded into
landing gear, says Smith. Tradition- not, says Smith. the aircraft, he says. There is still
ally, you would not know if the sensor Under development for four years, value there in diagnosing the system
was faulty or if the gear truly didnt the new sensors run an oscillating cur- automatically, rather than having a
fully deploy. rent constantly within the device. If maintenance crew do their process to
In August, Honeywell announced a that oscillating current stops, it indi- diagnose a problem.
new line of self-diagnosing proximity cates the proximity sensor is not work- Information fowing on high-band-

40 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


H. Gousse/Airbus

Data from diferent systems could failure or degradation in performance. The demand even from within Hon-
be synthesized to verify the health The next generation of those LRUs eywell and UTAS to collect more data
of the multiple air-data sensors on is going to incorporate these sensors, from the systems they produce raises
aircraft such as this Airbus A350. Atalla says. They are not going to the issue of how to connect a prolifer-
be spitting out real-time vibration ating number of sensors. Additional
width buses within the latest aircraft is spectrum data, but they are going to wiring adds weight. More computing
unlocking and sharing sensor data that be doing onboard processing to flag at the sensor so that it transmits pro-
exists in individual line replaceable red/yellow/green in terms of operat- cessed information and not raw data,
units (LRU) that previously commu- ing capability. It is going to be highly is one part of the solution. Wireless
nicated only via point-to-point links. processed output to the aircraft, so the sensors may be another.
Within the aircraft, a couple of customer can decide how to operate Wireless certainly comes up in
things are happening, says Mauro the aircraft, he explains. some of my discussions with the air-
Atalla, vice president of engineering For those LRUs that already have craft OEMs, says Smith, noting that
and technology for the Sensors and some sensing capability, UTAS is fol- they still have a way to go before us-
Integrated Systems unit of UTC Aero- lowing the same process in identifying ing them in system-critical solutions.
space Systems (UTAS). You are now the main failure and degradation modes While the weight savings is attractive,
able to look for correlations between and increasing the intelligence inside engineers are struggling with the re-
the LRU. You are measuring torque liability and security of wireless pro-
and current and things like that to be tocols and products. The wireless
able to operate the machine, but that community needs to come together
data never goes out, Atalla says. So to fgure out how to get around that
we are adding the capability to process before they start being used in critical
and publish that information. applications, Smith stresses.
But simply transmitting every byte A major step forward, says Atalla,
was the December 2015 approval of the
Wireless devices could make it eas- 4.2-4.4 GHz band for aircraft wireless.
ier to install new sensors through- Since then, UTC and others have
out aircraft without incurring the been working to establish standards
weight penalty of additional wiring. for how to use that frequency band for
intra-aircraft communication, he says.
of sensor data on the aircraft bus or We expect to go live in 2019.
over the satcom link is not practical We have developed a number of
because of bandwidth constraints. So wireless sensing nodes and wireless
UTAS has an initiative called Design data concentrators. We have pilot proj-
for PHM (Prognostic Health Manage- ects with a few OEMs who want to add
ment) that changes the standards for sensors but dont want to run a bunch
design of its products. of wires, Atalla adds. Sometimes its
The next generation of LRUs will a retroft. Sometimes its about trying
things that are happening in diferent have the ability to process and pub- to do controls. You want to measure
places in the aircraft because now you lish that data, but also, upon request, something so you can control it better.
can seek out that data, he says. And to expose more data if that is what the UTAS has a pilot project in which
you can use the information from dif- aircraft or somebody wants, Atalla the original equipment manufacturer
ferent LRUs to help other LRUs to per- says. If you want to diagnose some- is evaluating a tight closed-loop con-
form better or more reliably, and even thing, you may want more information trol capability that they could not have
to create new functionality previously about why the LRU went into a degrad- had before because the cost of the
not possible because the information ed mode, so we are building that into wiring outweighed the benefit. We
would not fow. how we design our next-generation clearly anticipate that, as soon as the
Within the systems UTAS produces products. standard is published, there will be a
for aircraft today, says Atalla, there As for creating new functionality by wave of new wireless sensors coming
are LRUs that do not have many sen- combining sensor data from diferent out, says Atalla, adding that this will
sors, primarily mechanical and pneu- systems, UTAS has been working with require sensors to be smarter in how
matic systems. And you have other a couple of large manufacturers on they manage energy, as well as data
LRUs that have quite a bit of sensing how air data can be synthesized from security.
in them to operate, such as an air-cycle other sources if the primary sensor But Atalla emphasizes Smiths point
machine, but that sensing information fails. This follows the pitot probe ic- that as aircraft become connected, sen-
never leaves the LRU, he says. ing that led to the crash of Air France sors must become more reliable than
For LRUs that do not need sensors Flight 447 in 2009. So if you have en- they are today. So as we put more sen-
to operate, UTAS has been conducting gine or fap actuator data, if you have sors on the aircraft, at the same time
workshops to identify how these units state information about the aircraft, we have the intelligence to determine
can fail, correlate this information with how do you estimate what the air data whether the sensor is providing the
data from its maintenance shops and probe should be reading and use that right information so the aircraft can
prioritize the types of sensors that need to verify the health of the air data sys- continue to operate without impacting
to be added to those LRUs to anticipate tem? Atalla asks. dispatch reliability. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 41


CONNECTED AEROSPACE

Intruder Alert
Broader connectivity for passengers
may open doors to hacking
Kerry Reals London

A
s commercial aircraft become increasingly e-enabled

Thales
and airlines make more use of passenger data to per-
sonalize the infight entertainment (IFE) experience,
addressing cybersecurity concerns is becoming paramount.
The aviation sectors march toward the Internet of Things Thales, which manufactures the AVANT connected IFE
(IoT), where data can be transferred over the internet from a system, says it takes a holistic approach to cybersecurity.
variety of connected devices, means it is vital to preempt and
thwart attacks from cybercriminals . This requires convergent tested to validate the security of these data transmissions.
thinking across all stakeholders and a continuous assessment Despite such assurances, so-called ethical hackers such as
of the potential risks, experts say. Ruben Santamarta, principal security consultant at IOActive,
Cybersecurity threats in todays world vary in timing, in- voice concerns about what they see as cybersecurity vulner-
tent, methods and intensity level. The main consideration is abilities in infight entertainment and connectivity systems.
that a holistic approach is taken to security and that systems Santamarta made a series of allegations in December 2016
in this ecosystem are secure, whether they are airborne or on against Panasonic Avionics, in which he said he had accessed
the ground, wired or wireless, says Bruno Nouzille, technical debug codes through a Panasonic infight display screen while
director for avionics at Thales. on an Emirates fight from Warsaw, Poland, to Dubai.
Regarding infight entertainment and connectivity sys- He said at the time that the vulnerabilities he discovered
tems, he adds, there is very close engagement with the could theoretically allow hackers to hijack passengers in-
Thales security experts and close cooperation with aircraft fight displays and potentially act as an entry point to the
manufacturers, regulatory agencies, federal agencies, security wider network, depending on system confgurations.
consultants, [information technology] professionals and avia- Panasonic stands by its ferce rejection of these assertions,
tion security information-sharing networks. which it outlined in a statement at the time. The company said
There are two main threats to consider when it comes to IOActives allegations contained a number of inaccurate and
cybersecurity and aviation: the threat to the privacy of pas- misleading statements about Panasonics systems. It also said
senger data and the threat to the safety of the aircraft, says it had reviewed all of the claims made by Mr. Santamarta
Don Buchman, vice president and general manager of com- and instructed Attack Research to conduct validation test-
mercial mobility at satellite-based infight connectivity pro- ing in May 2015, when Santamarta alerted the company to
vider ViaSat. his fndings, and again in 2016, to ensure that the few minor
Regarding safety, suggestions from ethical hackers that concerns [in no way linked to the control of an aircraft] identi-
cybercriminals could take control of an aircraft through the fed by Mr. Santamarta had been fully remediated.
IFE or connectivity system have been strongly denied by Nevertheless, Santamarta remains unconvinced that IFE
manufacturers. and connectivity systems are watertight against cyberat-
Theres a physical separation, where we work with OEMs tacksparticularly as aircraft become increasingly e-enabled.
and airframers to ensure our systems are separated out from New air-to-ground technologies will equip modern aircraft
the aircraft systems. We do a lot of cybersecurity continuous with a new set of capabilities. However, in terms of security,
testing of threats, and we are constantly trying to keep ahead this poses a major challenge, he says. IFEs, electronic fight
and keep everything locked down, says Buchman. bags, satellite communication systems. . . . The e-aircraft is
On the privacy issue, he says protection is in the companys exposing a signifcant attack surface as more and more de-
DNA. As an [internet service provider (ISP)] we were already vices onboard are now connected.
kind of a targetwe have 600,000-700,000 [residential] sub- Jef Cass, vice president of strategy in the aviation and de-
scribers and we have all their data. As we turn to being an fense business unit at software solutions provider IFS, agrees
ISP in the air, it has similar challenges but some diferent that airlines are increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks. It is
challenges as well, Buchman explains. only a matter of time before we see an attack on a major air-
Securing passengers personal information and credit line, he argues in an article promoting the use of blockchain
card payment transactions is of paramount importance and cloud technology to help airlines reinforce cybersecurity.
to airlines, says Nouzille, and the risks are constantly being With more IoT-enabled sensors being used, it is actually
assessed. the newer aircraft feets which have a higher chance of be-
Our philosophy manifests in a layered approach to secur- ing attacked, many of which can be ill-equipped to prevent
ing the system and [ensuring] that beyond the access points, unauthorized access, writes Cass. Increasingly being used
the system has what we call depth security, he says. The for things such as passenger Wi-Fi, real-time air-to-ground
systems security status is continuously monitored, with user communications are evolving to support mission-critical func-
authentications, intrusion detection and response mecha- tions such as infight fuel adjustments and aircraft health-
nisms overseen by a dedicated security operations center. As monitoring, both of which could severely disrupt airlines if
such, cabin Wi-Fi system risks are specifcally addressed and compromised. c

42 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

Next Phase the advantages of air traffic control


surveillance to be extended much fur-
ther, as it is far cheaper and easier to
Space-based capabilities beckon install. Along with safety benefts, the
broader coverage means separation
for Airservices Australia can be reduced and aircraft can have
greater routing fexibility.
Adrian Schofeld Canberra, Australia The advantages have increased as
aircraft equipage rates have risen, says

A
irservices Australia has been a some othersincluding the U.S.have Airservices CEO Jason Harfeld. For
global pioneer in the use of au- also deployed ADS-B networks cover- example, reduced separation can be
tomatic dependent surveillance- ing vast areas. Australia still has the applied when both aircraft involved
broadcast (ADS-B) for more than a largest network where ADS-B is the are equipped. Now virtually all air-
decade. But while few other countries sole surveillance source, since unlike craft operating in controlled airspace
have kept pace in terms of deployment many countries, it has very little radar are ADS-B-compliant. There are some
or application, the rapid rate of tech- coverage of its interior. exemptions through 2020, for private
nological advance means Airservices is Australia has also taken the most operators and foreign airlines in cer-
already looking to the next evolution in strides in requiring aircraft to be tain airspace, but these are applied to
air trafc control surveillance. equipped with ADS-B-compatible very few aircraft.

Airservices AustrAliA

The air navigation service provider Australias ADS-B coverage at 10,000 ft., pictured left, is far from com-
(ANSP) operates a network of ground- plete. But coverage improves as altitude increases and is almost total at
based ADS-B stations that has given 30,000 ft., pictured right. The remaining high-level gap along the north-
it continent-wide coverage at higher east coast is covered by radar, and Airservices plans to add ADS-B stations
altitudes since 2012. However, a new there within a year.
system under development in the U.S.
promises to eliminate the need for a avionics. Key mandates include one in ADS-B has also allowed greater use
ground network by relying on satellites 2013 requiring aircraft above 29,000 ft. of fight-planning options such as user-
instead, which would extend coverage (Flight Level 290, or FL 290) to be preferred routing and fex tracks for
to oceanic airspace and allow greater equipped and another, last February, domestic and long-haul fights. This is
coverage at lower altitudes. applying to almost all aircraft operat- because controllers have a more accu-
Airservices wants to be one of the ing under instrument flight rules in rate picture of an aircrafts position, al-
users of the system after developer controlled airspace. titude and heading. Harfeld notes that
Aireon brings it fully online around Airservices has gradually built routing aircraft around severe weather
2019. This aim is infuencing decisions up its ADS-B network to 72 ground is now easier to achieve. And an unex-
on whether to upgrade the current stations, which receive signals from pected beneft has been more efcient
terrestrial-based ADS-B equipment aircraft based on GPS location. Cov- monitoring to check compliance with
and also highlights the need to re- erage is virtually complete at FL 290, reduced vertical separation minima.
place a backbone air trafc manage- but diminishes progressively down to The most recent ADS-B mandate
ment (ATM) operating system with ground level. in February has had the effect of
one better able to handle the increased Radar only covers a J-shaped area bringing many more types of aircraft
surveillance data. on Australias heavily populated east- operators into the air traffic control
For many years, Australia could lay ern and southeastern coasts, as well network, says Stephen Angus, Airser-
claim to having the most extensive as smaller areas on the west and north vices executive general manager for
ADS-B surveillance network. Now coasts. This means ADS-B has allowed air navigation services. Not only does

AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 43


AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

this enhance safety and efciency for surveillance data from Aireon, the safety and cost-benefit assessments
smaller aircraft, it also improves the U.S.-based joint venture that is deploy- will require a lot of work. No cost es-
systems benefts for all users. ing the system. Iridium Communica- timate is available yet.
Airservices is still expanding the tions and Nav Canada are the major The fact that Australia already has
ground-based ADS-B network and stakeholders, along with a handful of a mature ADS-B network will make it
plans to deploy up to 15 more stations. European ANSPs. easier to validate the Aireon service,
These additional sites are intended Aireon will rely on a constellation Harfeld says. When it has been proven
to increase low-altitude coverage in of 66 satellites being progressively to be as accurate as the existing sys-
some cases, and in other places they launched by Iridium. The frst 30 have tem, it will be a matter of providing
will replace radars reaching the ends been sent into orbit in three launches, the right interface to feed the new data
of their lives. with the most recent on Oct. 9. The into Airservices control rooms.
However, Angus stresses that this ad- remainder are due to be launched by While many others are interested
ditional expansion is seen as an inter- mid-2018. Aireon is already receiving in Aireons system, it will be particu-
im [solution] until space-based ADS-B aircraft positional data, which is be- larly well-suited to Australian require-
comes along. The space-based sys- ing used for testing. Nav Canada is ex- ments, says Harfeld. Airservices con-
tem is regarded as the future, he says. pected to be the frst to use the service trols 11% of the worlds airspace, most
It could supersede terrestrial ADS-B operationally by late 2018 or early 2019. of which is oceanic and out of range of
in many respects, in
the same way the ter-
restrial system has
made radar seem an-
tiquated.
The speed of this
shift reflects the ex-
ponential growth and
advancement of sur-
veillance technology,
notes Angus. Airser-
vices long-term goal
is to get out of the
business of terrestrial
equipment, he says.
The more we can
put into satellite- and
space-based [technol-
ogy] the better, as its
more fexible and more
cost-efective.

Aireon
In a space -based
ADS-B system, the sat-
ellites fulfll the role of the ground sta- Aircraft can send positional data to the Aireon network even over mountains
tions. Aircraft equipage would be the and oceans where there are no ground stations. The middle circle shows
same as for the current ground-based how aircraft can transmit to both ground- and space-based ADS-B
ADS-B network. receivers. The data is downlinked to the Aireon ground facility and then sent
If the new system eventually proves to air trafc control systems.
itself, Airservices would probably look
to retire some of its ground-based The Aireon system will be able to current surveillance technology. This
ADS-B stations, says Angus. Space- provide surveillance anywhere on would be a fantastic enhancement for
based ADS-B will probably be cheaper, the globe, and about 10 ANSPs have us, he says.
and many of the original terrestrial entered into surveillance data con- Aireon views Australia as an impor-
stations will otherwise soon need up- tracts. More than 20 others, including tant potential addition to its network,
grading with second-generation equip- Airservices, have signed agreements says Cyriel Kronenburg, the companys
ment. to evaluate the service in their regions. vice president for aviation services.
Airservices will still maintain at Angus says its agreement with Airservices is a true pioneer of ADS-
least a skeleton network of ground- Aireon signals that were serious B and is already reaping the benefts
based ADS-B as a backup, in much about doing this. Airservices hopes of a terrestrial-based system, Kronen-
the same way it still retains ground- to have an initial contract in place burg says. We see our technology as
based navigation aids as a backup to by early next year to at least begin the next logical step for surveillance
GPS navigation. receiving some data, which will allow over the enormous area Airservices
However, many steps remain be- it to start building a safety case for covers, he notes. To be able to col-
fore Airservices can contemplate us- Australian regulators. Operational laborate on the deployment of space-
ing space-based ADS-B. The company use by Airservices is unlikely to based ADS-B in Australian airspace
would essentially need to subscribe to occur before 2020, however, as the would be in an incredible opportunity

44 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


for Aireon to really hone in on separa- space-based ADS-B implementation. be more precisely managed if control-
tion capabilities and efciency-enhanc- OneSky aims to deploy a common lers know an aircrafts location during
ing services and processes. ATC system for both Airservices and long-distance oceanic fights.
While some countries regard space- Australias Department of Defense. A request for information was issued
based ADS-B as primarily a solution It will make the system more fexible, to see what long-range fow-management
for oceanic surveillance, Airservices scalable and will have more tools solutions could be ofered by potential
is looking at it for domestic coverage, for controllers. Airservices selected suppliers, says Airservices Chief Infor-
too, Angus says. Aircraft coming in Thales as the main supplier in 2015, mation Ofcer Chris Seller. This yielded
on international routes can some- and a full contract for OneSky is ex- responses from about 15 companies,
times be over Australia for 3-4 hr. pected to be signed before the end of and these are now being assessed. The
before reaching the east coast cities. this year. Some preparatory develop- intention is to launch a trial, which will
Airservices uses the same platform to ment work is already underway. probably be conducted at Melbourne
monitor fights, whether they are over Airservices now estimates that the International Airport, he says.
land or sea. OneSky deployment will be complet- The move toward satellite-based tech-
The current ADS-B system relies ed by 2023, later than its initial fore- nology is evident in other areas aside
on line of sight between ground sta- cast of 2021. However, Harfeld notes from ADS-B. For example, Airservices
tions and aircraft, so the coverage this is conservative, and he predicts has also installed ground-based aug-
area from each land-based site is an the actual completion date could be mentation systems (GBAS) to provide
inverted cone that shrinks closer to closer to 2022. Airservices expects to precision runway approaches at Syd-
the surface. Space-based ADS-B, spend A$652 million ($510 million) on ney and Melbourne airports. GBAS is
however, ofers full coverage down to OneSky and its enabling projects over regarded as an alternative for the more
ground level. This means it will pro- the next fve years. traditional instrument landing systems
vide far more complete low-level sur- (ILS). It is more accu-
veillance than the terrestrial system. rate and cost-efective
In the oceanic environment, the The more we can put into through its use of en-
Aireon surveillance will allow the hanced GPS data.
same hands-on air trafc control and satellite- and space-based Airservices is consid-
separation standards as over land.
Airservices terrestrial network only technology the better, as its more ering using GBAS to
replace its legacy ILS
extends a limited distance ofshore, al- systems when they
though it has extended coverage into fexible and more cost-effective are due to be retired,
the Tasman Sea with an ADS-B site and it could also be in-
on Lord Howe Island. The OneSky system will be de- stalled in lieu of ILS when a new runway
There is currently a coverage gap ployed at 12 military and four civil is completed in Perth.
on the busy air routes between Aus- ATC centers. It is expected to be op- Another satellite navigation tech-
tralia and New Zealand. However, erational at the frst sites around 2020 nology under development ofers po-
ANSP Airways New Zealand is also and then be progressively rolled out tential benefts for aviation in Austra-
evaluating Aireons system, so there at the others. lia. Government agency Geoscience
could eventually be full coverage Space-based ADS-B is also linked Australia has launched a two-year
between the two countries, Harfeld to another new technology Airser- trial program for a satellite-based
notes. While these are relatively short vices intends to introduce. It plans augmentation system (SBAS), which
flights, the sheer volume of traffic to install a long-range air trafc fow- is intended to improve the accuracy
means any greater efciency could re- management system in order to better of GPS for positioning in multiple ap-
sult in signifcant savings for airlines. coordinate international arrivals at the plications. Other government agencies
There would even be the potential for major Australian gateway airports. are also involved, and Airservices will
controlling trafc all the way across Airservices already has a flow- probably evaluate the use of SBAS for
the Tasman from either side. management system that it uses for precision approaches to regional air-
The introduction of space-based domestic fights, which is particularly ports, Harfeld says. In the long-term,
ADS-B would dramatically increase helpful in using ground-delay pro- it could also help improve aircraft navi-
the flow of surveillance data. This grams to optimize trafc fows during gation in remote areas.
means Airservices will have to up- severe weather. However, because in- The technical advances planned by
grade its air trafc control operating ternational long-haul arrivals are less Airservices will follow a major cor-
system to integrate the additional predictable, they can disrupt carefully porate restructuring at the organiza-
feed, says Harfeld. planned patterns. tion, including a substantial reduction
While some of the space-based A long-range fow-management sys- in headquarters staff. Together, the
ADS-B data could be handled by the tem would allow Airservices to bet- restructuring and the new systems
current ATC system, it would not be ter integrate international trafc with represent a signifcant change in how
able to process all of the extra load. So domestic fows. International fights Airservices will provide air trafc con-
Airservices will not get the full benefts could be directed to alter their speeds trol in Australia. This transformation
of Aireon surveillance until it installs slightly in order to meet an optimal is an example of how throughout the
its planned ATC system replacement, arrival time. Space-based ADS-B aviation industry, old business models
under a project known as OneSky. This would vastly improve such a system, are dying and new ones are emerging,
will partly determine the timing of Angus says. Aircraft trajectories can Harfeld says. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 45


AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

Extending the Horizon with speed-reduction instructions


that enable it to insert into an arrival
sequence, Guerin says. These are suc-
Some promising improvements in air trafc cessively the planning and tactical
phases.
management are materializingslowly The concept of a target time of arrival
will be key in an upcoming test. In the
Thierry Dubois Lyon, France second half of next year, an arrival man-
agement horizon of up to 350 nm will be

R
ecent tests for extended ar- August, approximately 200 inbound tried at London Gatwick Airport. It has
rival management (E-AMAN) in ights followed the xStream procedure. a single runway, so predicting departure
Europe have once again shown Aircraft were given speed-reduction times is required to extend the horizon,
that air traffic management (ATM) instructions from north of Bordeaux Guerin adds. The closest aircraft in ap-
optimization looks like low-hanging (southwest France) and Lyon (south- proach are expected to take of before
fruit for fuel efciency. They have also east). The distances were twice the the farthest out land. Efective collab-
shown that, as with developing new current arrival management horizon. orative decision-making will be needed
aircraft, advancing ATM involves The performance was compared to among airlines, the airport, and tower
lengthy trials mainly because of the those logged in the summer of 2016, and approach control centers, Guerin
complexity of coordinating emphasizes.
various actors. Paris Orlys Extended Arrival Management Horizon For the xStream test, DSNA
A change in ATM could had partners. Eurocontrols
greatly afect the fuel efciency network manager checked
of the air transport industry. that the concepts we develop
Unlike the progressive intro- do not reduce capacity, Guerin
duction of greener engines, LFPO (Paris Orly Airport) points out. ATM hardware
ATM reform may apply over- manufacturer Indra ensured
night to a large number of air- that concepts could be translat-
craft. Along with an increase ed into system specications.
in airspace capacity, fuel ef- German Aerospace Center
ficiency is key for programs DLR has helped with perfor-
120-nm radius
such as the FAAs NextGen and mance analysisdetermining
the Single European Sky ATM fuel and time savings as well as
Research (SESAR). The latter controller workload.
Source: SESAR/DSNA

targets a reduction of 5-10% for The E-AMAN concept will


average 4,800-kg (10,600-lb.) 250-nm radius be tested at Paris Charles de
Lyon
fuel consumption for a repre- Bordeaux
Gaulle Airport in April 2018.
sentative intra-European ight. Although there is no set time
DSNA, Frances air naviga- for this tool to be ready for de-
tion service provider (ANSP), During live tests last summer, increasing the radius ployment, xStream is part of
is leading SESARs xStream of the arrival management area streamlined trafc the SESAR 2020 multiannual
project in extended arrival work program.
at Paris Orly Airport. The timescale appears long
management. With more reli-
able predictability for the arrival se- when similar maintenance kept anoth- for a project that does not involve ma-
quence, the objective is to enable de- er runway closed. The shorter holding jor hardware changes. The technol-
lay absorption earlier in the ight, at time and reduced need for vectoring ogy bricks we need are small but they
higher altitude, improving the arrivals proved the value of the idea, according involve exchanging data between sev-
fuel efciency. As part of xStream, an to DSNA. A collaborative process had eral ANSPs, hence security challeng-
evaluation last summer at Paris Orly been created between Orly Approach es, Guerin explains. Software must
Airport demonstrated that the average and the Paris and Bordeaux area con- adapt to systems that were built over
holding time was cut by 30%. When an trol centers. a long period of time. Moreover, engi-
aircraft had to slow down or be vec- A complementary concept in neers who devise new ATM schemes
tored (i.e., detoured) to postpone its xStream procedures is the target time must wait for the right season to test
arrival, 30 sec. of the extra duration of arrival, on which the rst round of themthey need peaks in trafc, but
were transferred to higher ight levels. iStream (predecessor of xStream) fo- not too high, he says. Finally, a large
The exact fuel saving is being calcu- cused in 2015. Crews are given a target number of partners have to coordinate.
lated, Etienne Guerin, xStream project time of arrival at a congestion point, A 250-nm E-AMAN may include 5-9
manager, adds. Guerin explains. The congestion point is en route control centers, he notes.
The test was conducted during a most often an initial approach x or an- The next step in E-AMAN research
period when one of the airports three other entry point in the approach area. could happen in 2019, when DFS, the
runways was closed for maintenance. Ideally, target times of arrival are German ANSP, hopes to test a con-
DSNA took this opportunity to assess given before departure for crews to figuration with multiple E-AMAN
the benet of an arrival management adapt pushback time; then, the air- schemes, possibly crossing, in a single
horizon extended to 250 nm. In July and craft is followed in E-AMAN mode en route sector. c

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


SAFETY

FAA
Incursion
Proofng
FAA and industry take a fresh look
at how to avoid runway incidents

The number of reported and verifed runway


incursions in the U.S. has been growing since 2011.

John Croft Washington September, Devlin said safety data over


the past two decades shows a signif-

L
ast February, a controller at San Francisco International cant reduction in the rate of runway
Airport mistakenly cleared an Embraer 175 to land on Run- incursions in 2000-08, but since then,
its not clear if theres been a reduc-
way 28L while an Airbus A320 was waiting to depart at the tion or not.
end of the same runway. A surface surveillance system safety He joins a broader chorus of safety
net caught the error and alerted the controller, who commanded advocates calling for additional data
collection surrounding the most serious
the E175 to go around. A catastrophe was averted, but barely: incursions and a more comprehensive
The two aircraft had come within less than 100 ft. of colliding. classifcation system. Were chasing a
few events each year trying to under-
The incident became one of four (Airport Surface Detection Equip- stand the true risk in the system, says
Category A runway incursionsthe ment-Model X) and airport surface Devlin. My argument is that risk actu-
type with the most potential for loss surveillance capability (ASSC)the ally exists on a continuum, and we need
of life and limbthat have occurred type of system that saved the day in to start looking at runway safety as part
so far this year. The classification is the San Francisco incursionand run- of this continuum.
the result of a laborious process in way status lights, banks of red lights Analysts are faced with several prob-
which an FAA panel ranks individual that alert a pilot not to proceed when lems when trying to gauge runway in-
incursion events as Cat. A (the worst) a runway is occupied. ASDE-X is now cursion trends and predictions. Given
through Cat. D (the most benign) and operational at 35 large airports, ASSC the low number of Cat. A and B events
attributes the events to pilots, control- will expand to nine airports, and run- generally fewer than 20 per yearit can
lers, vehicle operators or pedestrians. way status lights will be operational at be difcult to decide if performance has
The FAA defnes an incursion as the 20 airports by year-end. Procedural been improving or worsening over time.
incorrect presence of an aircraft, ve- preventatives typically include aids to Devlin says a weighted Bayesian curve
hicle or person on a runway. boost situational awareness, including ft of the data since 2008 suggests vir-
The ranking system and preventa- airport diagrams on moving map dis- tually no change in rate, while an expo-
tives are getting a second look as the plays in the cockpit. nential curve ft suggests the numbers
most severe types of incursionsCat. The categories are not designed on are on the upswing. The total number
A and B eventsappear to be occur- who to blame, but what collection of of reported and verifed incursions has
ring at the same or possibly higher mitigations are available for that type been growing since 2011. There were
rates for the past several years despite of event, says Chris Devlin, senior 1,560 last year, based on the FAAs fs-
the introduction of a wide range of cor- principal systems engineer at Mitre cal year (October through September),
rective measures. Among the tech- Corp.s Center for Advanced Aviation and 1,219 this year through the end of
nological preventatives are ground System Development. At an NTSB run- August. One caveat to consider when
surveillance systems like ASDE-X way incursion forum in Washington in discussing incursion ratesan incur-

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 47


SAFETY

Runway Incursions in the U.S., 2010-17 Number of runway incursions

2,000 Rate per 1 million operations 40

31.20
1,500
29.32 30
27.45
24.87 25.47
22.74
Number of runway incursions

Rate per 1 million operations


1,000
18.85 18.80 20

1,560
1,458
500 1,264 10
1,242 1,219
1,150
966 954
0 0

Cat. A and B 0.38


20 0.36 0.4
Runway Incursions 0.30
15
0.28 0.3
0.22
10 0.14 0.14 0.2
0.12
55 0.1
6 7 18 11 14 15 19
0 9 0

Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

Airport Operations 51,254,958 50,739,762 50,576,043 49,936,655 49,623,893 49,722,104 49,994,949 44,405,709
Source: FAA *through end of August

sion must be reported to be counted. incursions, 67% were attributed to ATC boxes, which can be as simple as a pad
Making a judgment based on the and 33% to pilot deviations. Many of the of paper with a check mark next to an
sheer number of events also can be ATC events resulted in fy-overs, as aircrafts call sign or as sophisticated as
problematic. James Fee, the FAAs was the case in the San Francisco inci- a touch-screen tablet, have to cover six
manager for runway safety, says the dent in February. operational scenarios: runway closed or
number of incursions has increased The FAA and industry recently re- inactive; runway crossing taking place;
over the past decade in part because viewed more than 700 Cat. A, B and C vehicle, personnel or equipment on an
of culture changes initiated by the FAA. incursions to assess what prevented active runway; land and hold-short op-
The agency in 2008 launched a volun- them from becoming accidents, says erations; line-up-and-wait commands;
tary safety reporting program for con- Fee. The primary cause of incursions and landing clearances issued.
trollers, the Air Trafc Safety Action (63%) was ATC clearing an aircraft The requirement also applies to
Program (ATSAP). Pilots, fight atten- to land or depart on an occupied run- contract towers. Serco, an operator of
dants and other aviation workers have wayan error that can cause a fly- 59 contract towers in the western U.S.
similar programs that ofer immunity over event. It was found that one of and Alaska, and one non-federal con-
from FAA penalties when employees the leading contributing factors was trol tower in California, created what
voluntarily submit a report on an ac- misjudging the closure rate or separa- it calls the tower trafc management
cident or incident, providing there was tion rate between two aircraft. Of the board (TMB) in response.
no criminal activity, substance abuse, 361 pilot deviations studied, the top Its a poor mans radar, says David
alcohol or intentional falsifcation in- cause was failing to hold short of an ac- McCann, senior program manager for
volved. In 2008-14, the FAA said it had tive runway; the largest contributing Serco. Many of our facilities have ra-
received more than 73,000 ATSAP re- factor was miscommunication. In 20% dar, but there is an FAA requirement to
ports resulting in more than 200 safety of the ATC incidents, go-arounds were have the runway incursion avoidance
improvements to the air trafc control used as the barriers, or preventatives; memory aids in place. TMB is a mag-
system. in another 40%, the FAA could not tell netic dry-erase board with a diagram
Fee, speaking at the NTSB forum, which barriers were in place or which of the airport printed on it. Control-
said in the past decade 66% of all run- were the most efective, says Fee. lers use color-coded magnetic chips
way incursions were attributed to pilot Based on the problem of fy-overs, the on the board to indicate an aircraft or
deviations (pilots not adhering to FAA FAA has begun requiring tower control- vehicle on the runway, taxiways or ap-
rules or ATC instructions); 19% were lers to use memory aids to help them proach paths. Each [TMB] is unique
tied to vehicle or pedestrian deviations recall exact actions, items, places and to a facility and has standard operating
and 15% to ATC. General aviation air- sequences, says Mike Moreau, the procedures for that facility, says Mc-
craft are involved in 80% of all incur- FAAs central service area runway safe- Cann. Theyre all geared toward quick
sions. For the more severe Cat. A and B ty program manager. Memory aid tool- recognition by the controller so they

48 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


can fgure out whats going on and get Southwest Airlines would not discuss sion prevention measures and on their
back to looking out the window. In the its incursion rate trends but noted that performance in handling complex air-
past, youd have a legal pad and write over the past four years 21% of its run- port layouts in simulator training.
down the numbers as they call you. way incursions resulted in a go-around, The FAA is putting more focus on the
Thats not very efcient. and 1% caused a rejected takeof. Causal human factors aspect on the continued
Airlines are also deploying their own factors included cockpit distractions, occurrence of runway incursions. The
customized solutions while sharing loss of situational awareness, similar agencys nine-person human perfor-
insights with rivals through the FAAs call-sign confusion and timing of the mance team, comprising experts in
InfoShare gatherings twice per year. before-takeoff checklist, says George fatigue, human factors and health and
Delta Air Lines says its rate of Hodgson, manager of ATC systems for wellness, will be developing the tools
runway incursions over the past four Southwest. needed to achieve a high level of hu-
years has been fat, meaning no ap- Preventive measures include airport man performance in the National Air-
preciable increases or decreases. We cover pages in pilot documents that space System, says Sabrina Woods,
dont take that lightly, says Patricia detail special areas of concerns at air- an FAA human factors scientist on the
DeMasi, manager of Aviation Safety ports. At the Hollywood Burbank Air- team.
Action Programs (ASAP) for the carri- port in California, a new cover page Woods says access to all available
er. We watch the industry trends and describes a new hold point to help with data has been a roadblock in coming
have a heightened awareness because incursion problems the airport was up with the most efective runway in-
of that. ASAPs are part of a broader having for one runway. In the cockpit, cursion mitigations. Were building
safety management system structure pilots are instructed to confrm ATC mitigations on one-quarter or one-half
within airlines. instructions between each other and of the story and hoping the outcome of
Key preventive measures include to suspend discretionary tasks when that safety action is moving the safety
options for the electronic fight bags needed. needle, says Woods. We are uncertain
(EFB) in the cockpit. Included are United Airlines has determined if corrective actions are solving the
own-ship position on airport moving that causal factors for its runway in- problem; we are not even sure we are
maps, depictions for closed areas, cursions largely revolve around situ- asking the right questions.
Delta-specifc airport familiarization ational awareness and communica- The problem, she says, is that ana-
pages and a capability so pilots can tions. Situational awareness starts lysts do not have access to information
create a highlighted overlay of their with a taxi plan, threats {along the about the same incident from multiple
expected or assigned taxi route. path to the runway] and being aware databases, including ATSAP, ASAP,
Along with using ASAP reports to of their present position, says Jerry the NASA aviation safety reporting
fag potential problems, Delta is work- Tsujimoto, Uniteds senior investigator system and others. All the mitiga-
ing with its fight operational quality for fight safety investigations. The car- tions we create and all the devices we
assurance (FOQA) service provider to rier uses a VVM (verbalize, verify and develop to carry out the mitigations
set up a trigger to highlight possible monitor) aid to keep both pilots from are based on what can sometimes be
incursions that our FOQA team can being heads-down at the same time incomplete data, she says. Its not
follow up on, says Josh Migdal, Deltas looking at EFBs or other documenta- because the data does not [help]; its
senior air safety investigator. Human tion during taxi. Pilots are graded on because our level of accessibility is not
factors is a big piece were looking at. their understanding of runway incur- there yet. c

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AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 49


CommerCiAl AviAtion

Family Business
Jens Flottau Cancun, Mexico,

EmbraEr
Dublin and Frankfurt

D
omhnal Slattery sets
the tone the minute he
walks in: I have 1 hr. for
this interview. When they go
longer, they tend to become in-
efcient for everybody. And in-
efciency, as we will soon learn,
is something he neither likes
nor tolerates. Dom is quite a
force of nature, we had been
warned, a few weeks earlier, by
younger brother John.
Trying to meet Domhnal and John
Slattery is a challenge. Both are con-
stantly traveling, mostly by air. They
spend about six months a year away
from home and ofce. Both still love to
fy and can sleep well on aircraft. The
photo of the two together (page 53) was
taken on one of the rare occasions they
were on the same continentlet alone
in the same citywith John spending
some time of at home in Ireland.
Few people ever make it to the top
of large corporations; it is even less
common to see two brothers rise to
the top in the same industry. The Slat-
tery brothers did: John is now president
and CEO of Embraer Commercial Air- After a career in fnance, consulting and aircraft leasing, John Slattery is presi-
craftthe first non-Brazilian to run dent/CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation and its most senior non-Brazilian.
the companys commercial aircraft
businessand many predict he will and if he does not sing at the end of a as a consequence, work became me. . . .
one day also be the frst non-Brazilian dinner, then something is wrong. Until a few years ago, I had no personal
to run Embraer as a whole. Domhnal But how did two sons of a vegetable interest in other people. It is only now
is the CEO of Avolon, which is well on wholesale shop owner in a little town on that this is changing.
its way to becoming the worlds largest Irelands west coast become such high- In the early 1970s, the Slattery broth-
aircraft lessor just seven years after profile figures in aerospace? Was it a ers discovered their love for aviation.
he founded the company. Both are still confuence of life events or talent? The Ennis, the small town where they lived,
relatively young CEOs: Domhnal turned answer is both and, one might add, pain. was only a few minutes from Shannon
50 recently, and John is 48. They will We lost our dad at ages nine and Airport, and the airport company hap-
have many more years in the industry, 11, says John. It gives you a sense of pened to be their fathers biggest cus-
if they wish. urgency and maturity too early in life. tomer. John and Domhnal share happy
When they happen to be in the same You end up losing your childhood, memories of sitting in the back of the
place, their joint parties at industry adds Domhnal, who stepped into the delivery truck and smelling kerosene as
events are legendary: Domhnal says fathers role almost immediately. The they arrived there every other Satur-
John is by far the better singer, who sense of massive loss both emotion- day. We marveled at the Pan Am [Boe-
could have pursued a professional ca- ally and materially shaped the boys ing] 747-100s, John recalls with a smile.
reer in opera, but one industry source personalities for years to come and, to My dream became to work in aviation.
says Domhnal is a very good dancer, an extent, still does. Domhnal says that Domhnal felt the same way.

50 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


recalls. GPA was founded by legendary
How brothers John and Domhnal entrepreneur Tony Ryan, one of those
behind Ryanair. Set up in 1975, it quickly
Slattery became famous in aviation became the worlds largest aircraft les-
sor of its time. This is where I had to
be, Domhnal says. Through lucky cir-
cumstances he was able to get a job in-
AVOLON

terview, but was turned down because


GPA management held to the highest
standards, hiring only what they con-
sidered the best of the best. Domhnal
would not give up, and ofered to work
for free. It was my frst lesson in tenac-
ity, he says.
He was offered a paid job at GPA
in 1989, and his career progression
was greatly assisted by the absence
of email thereGPA representatives
would fax in reports about client nego-
tiations. There were 20 fax machines in
the Shannon ofce and 150 employees.
It was Domhnals job to read the faxes,
copy them and distribute them into
the mailboxes of everyone he thought
should read them. I soon knew more
about anything in the company than
anyone else, he recalls. Consequently,
he was confdent: I was going to be the
CEO.
Such a claim is typical for Domhnal.
His personality is larger than life, says
Floret. He is a very strong personality,
you can feel it the moment he enters
a room. But she also describes him as
very generous and approachable, and
very loyal with his people.
His life changed with the collapse of
GPA in 1992 after a failed initial public
ofering (IPO), a trauma for the Irish
business community to this day. At age
27, he had lost all of his money and left
GE Capital Aviation Services, which
Domhnal Slattery built up Avolon as a major force in aircraft leasing. He had acquired what was left of GPA.
continues as CEO after HNA Group acquired the business. Domhnal set up his first company,
International Aviation Management
But there were more imminent prob- nior positions; his one attempt to build Group (IAMG) in 1994, starting from
lems after their father died in 1978. The his own frm failed in the aftermath of scratch again.
family had to survive on a small widows the global fnancial crisis, much to the IAMG specialized in airline fnance
pension, not nearly enough. Domh- beneft of Embraer. consulting. It also turned out to be the
nal took on weekend and after-school The two are similar in some ways, Slattery brothers firstand only
jobs and handed over the earnings to starkly diferent in others. They did not time working together. John had start-
his mother. Life was about learning in always get along well when they were ed a job at the Bank of Ireland and was
school, and later in university, but also younger, and professionally their ways Domhnals stockbroker. In 1995, he
more simply about satisfying basic parted at some point. But both say they came to visit his brother on vacation
needs along the lines of Maslows fa- are very close again and have been for in the Cayman Islands, where IAMG
mous hierarchy of basic human needs. a long time. At the same time, there is had moved from Tampa, Florida. John
After university, Domhnal took his still a lot of competition between John proposed to join IAMG, now ready to
frst professional steps. They would be and Domhnal, says Isabelle Floret, who fulfll his dream and also get into avia-
diferent from Johnsand looking back is in charge of sales to lessors at Airbus. tion. Domhnal did not like the idea, but
at their careers, that is not surprising. But back to Ennis. If you were when the two came back to the beach
Domhnal is the entrepreneur, who took growing up in Ireland, you wanted to from a long swim, they agreed to give
great risks and lost everything twice. join Davy Stockbrokers, Kerry Group it a try. Within a month, it was obvious
John was always employed in very se- or GPA [Guinness Peat Aviation], John that this 25-year-old kid with no back-

AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 51


CommerCial aviation

ground in aviation took to it, says Dom- for the Embraer Phenom 100. Another but chose to relocate to Brazil. Being
hnal. He was a natural, hugely hungry investment was Blue Ocean Networks, based in Europe is actually easier, and
and unbelievably good with customers. which was later sold to Inmarsat. there was no pressure from Paulo, but
I had a ferocious appetite for learn- But trouble loomed. I felt it was the right move, he says. It
ing, John recalls. And for working: The day we were going to launch was helped by the fact that Johns wife
Every week he would fy to Miami and [the Phenom 100], Lehman Brothers is Brazilian.
then take the redeye to Rio de Janeiro. went bankrupt, says Domhnal. Not At Embraer, it is not a job, but a pas-
His first major assignment at IAMG only did the Jet Bird project fall apart, sion. Those that have it, live it, John
was strategic planning for Varig and but also the family empire. I was well says. He enjoys the intellectual challenge
helping restructure the companys on my way to becoming a billionaire, of having switched from aircraft leasing
already distressed finances. John or- and suddenly I had lost everything. But and fnance to the OEM world, which he
chestrated sale-and-lease-back transac- I had a wife, four children and a mort- describes as infnitely more complex.
tions, engine deals and aircraft orders. gage to pay. There are 20,000 employees, big invest-
ment and multibillion-dollar bets that
AIRBUS CONCEPT

have to be made for 20 years out.


In Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil,
where Embraers commercial aircraft
are built, Slatterys office sits in the
middle of the factory. I can touch met-
al in 5 min. if I want to, he says. The
emotional and intellectual rewards of
the job are unparalleled.
Silva initially had a very self-serving
reason for his interest in John. I had
the idea that this is the sort of guy I
need to enlarge the footprint of the
Avolon is one of the launch customers for the Airbus E-Jets into lessors, he recalls. But in
A330neo. It ordered 15 of the type at the other ways, too, Slattery and Embraer
2016 Farnborough Airshow. were a good ft. John is very attached
to Brazil through his wife, Silva says.
When John was president of the Wings
He had arrived where he wanted to be. After RBS, John was about to be Club, it awarded former Embraer CEO
IAMG was a successful boutique hired as CEO by Centennial Leasing, a Mauricio Botelho its top honor. Since
consultancy with 25 employees. At one CIT spinof. But he, too, was ensnared then, Silva has appreciated John as a
point, Ryan bought 20% of the com- in the fnancial crisis. He had the idea great professional with an interna-
pany, but Domhnal bought him out to set up a new lessor at the trough of tional attitude. Silva also notes that
again a year later as their relationship the aviation cycle in 2008. But his proj- the Slatterys are very creative, they
strained. There can only be one bull ect, Greenstone, ultimately did not take are artists and fun guys. The singing
in the feld, he says. In later years, the of. John and Domhnal for some time is part of it.
two got on much better, freed of their discussed merging their interests and Former Embraer CEO Fred Curado
professional ties. putting Greenstone and what would says John has distinct Irish qualities,
Domhnal sold IAMG in 2001, seven become Avolon together. But John says but he also has a lot in common with the
years after setting it up, to the Royal that while it would have been fnancial- Brazilian culture; he is always in high
Bank of Scotland, which used the frm ly rewarding, I was not as excited. The spirit, full of energy. That energy can
as the launch platform for RBS Avia- brothers were again looking for new ca- pack a punch when it comes to busi-
tion Capital. Within three years, RBS reer paths and, Domhnal in particular, ness. Sitting onstage several years ago
became the third-largest aviation fi- for fnancial rewards. They went their at an International Society of Trans-
nancier. In 2004, Domhnal left a very diferent ways. port Air Trading conference, Slattery
rich man. (In 2012, RBS Aviation was This is when Paulo Cesar de Souza e mocked his counterpart, a senior ex-
bought by Sumitomo Bank of Japan for Silva entered the scene as a new men- ecutive at competitor Bombardier, for
$7.3 billion. It is now called SMBC Avia- tor. Cesar, now CEO of Embraer, ran delivering an upbeat assessment of the
tion Capital.) the commercial aircraft division at the then poorly selling C Series airliner.
Domhnal set up Claret Capital as a time, and invited John to dinner at his He bluntly suggested that Bombardier
family ofce to manage his wealth. It home in Dublin. By the main course might not even survive in the airplane
should have been the Blackstone of he told me I should be part of Embraer, business for another fve years.
Europe, he says. He invested in many and by dessert I had decided to join, To Curado, bringing John on board
things, real estate mostly, but other John recalls. Ever since that meeting, went beyond better access to the leas-
sectors as well. He founded a flm pro- this mentor has had an enormously ing community. I thought it was impor-
duction company and bought his own positive infuence on my life. tant to have a global executive, because
newspaper The Clare People, which he John joined Embraer but initially I had a clear vision of where Embraer
still owns. He also set up Jet Bird, a stayed in Dublin. He was soon promot- should go: Become a global company
point-to-point air taxi service that was ed to head of sales for the commercial based in Brazil.
about to become the launch customer division and could have stayed there For now, Slattery is the point man on

52 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 aviationWeek.com/awst


AviAtion industry AwArds

2014, Avolon went public in the largest


listing ever of an Irish company on the
New York Stock Exchange. The success
of the IPO helped heal the wounds to
the Irish business community, still evi-
dent from GPAs collapse more than 20
years earlier.
A little more than a year later, Bohai
Capital, a subsidiary of HNA Group,
bought Avolon. That, combined with
the IPO, made Domhnal rich again. He
stayed on to run and consolidate the
companies. Like his brother, he moved
abroad again, setting up camp in Hong
John Slattery (left) and Patrick Blaney Kong. The lack of cultural integration
(right), of University College Dublin, and trust is the main reason for failure,
presented the Outstanding he says. So I agreed that I would base
Contribution to the Aviation Industry myself in Asia, a fantastic personal ex-
Award to Domhnal Slattery last year. perience. But now he is back home in
Dublin, where more projects awaited
such as CIT Aerospace.
Embraers eforts to bring its updated brother likes that story. Because no CIT Group had been trying to sell its
E2 jets to market. The aircraft will not one should think that Domhnals work aircraft leasing business for some time,
be much bigger than the frst genera- is not also complex. But he does ac- and Avolon was still eager to grow. It
tion of E-Jets but will be much more knowledge that John is the only guy agreed to pay $10 billion for the compa-
efficient, equipped with cutting-edge who went to the other side. And there ny, and the deal closed in April. Avolon
equipment such as Pratt & Whitneys he has been extremely successful. is now the third-largest aircraft lessor
geared turbofan engines. The E2 is de- So could John someday become Em- worldwide. And if Domhnal is right, it
signed to help Embraer keep its prod- braer CEO, when Silva retires? He is a will very soon be the biggest.
uct line fresh whileunlike Bombardier candidate for the top job, the incumbent I think he fts well with the Chinese
and the C Seriesdeliberately avoiding says, although there are other bright culture because he thinks big, says
a head-to-head challenge to industry ti- candidates as well. Can John, unlike Airbus Commercial Aircraft President
tans Airbus and Boeing. his brother, also live with being No. 2? Fabrice Bregier. He is not the [same]
Longer-term, Embraer is looking be- Well, for a while, says Curado, laughing. kind of aircraft lover as Steve Udvar-
yond the E2 and may even return to its While John changed sides in the in- Hazy [CEO of Air Lease Corp.], but he
is a very structured businessman with a
EmbrAEr

strong fnancial background. As long as


he has the support of his shareholders,
he will do well.
But it is not just size Domhnal is
pursuing. When you hit 50, you start
thinking about your legacy, he admits.
There has to be a higher purpose.
While he and his team at Avolon are still
trying to define that in their internal
discussions, the basic idea is that the
company should be the benchmark for
excellence in aircraft leasing.
Successfully introducing the Embraer E2 family to the market But isnt it time to bail out and move
is the top priority for John Slattery in 2018. on again? Domhnal demurs. One of his
beliefs is that you tend to take most
roots and build a new turboprop. We dustry, Domhnal had a diferent objec- risks early in life. Second, he managed
are at the early stages of assessing what tive. He needed money, so he decided to to convince his owners that structured
the business case could be, John told return to what he thought he did best: autonomy is the way Avolon should be
the Aviation Club in London in Septem- running an aircraft leasing company. run. Targets are defned for the balance
ber. We are serious about it. He spent two years fnding investors for sheet, the risks taken and the proft ex-
But Embraer, famed for hitting the his new idea, Avolon. He raised $1.4 bil- pectedbut how all that is achieved is
market with successful products, has lion in equity from four well-known or- his business. An arrangement even the
always been deliberative and thorough ganizations: Cinven, CVC Capital Part- entrepreneur Domhnal seems able to
in its major decisions. It is intellectu- ners, Oak Hill Capital Partners and the live with for now.
ally much more complicated than my Government of Singapore Investment So fnally, who is the better singer?
former life, he says. Corp. Domhnal also raised $1.6 billion Silva is undecided: The duets are
Domhnal quips with a smile that his in debt to fund aircraft purchases. In excellent. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 53


SPACE

Elons Big Gamble I know at first glance this may


seem ridiculous, says Musk. But it
is not. The same is true of aircraft.
Iconoclastic SpaceX CEO wants to scrap If you bought, a small, single-engine
turboprop aircraft, that would be $1.5-
Falcon rocket line to fund his Mars dream 2 million. To charter a [Boeing] 747
from California to Australia is half a
Irene Klotz Adelaide, Australia million dollars, there and back. The
single-engine turboprop cannot even

S
paceX founder and CEO Elon distance transportation, commented get to Australia. So a fully reusable, gi-
Musk says he has fixed a fatal U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine ant aircraft like the 747 costs a third as
faw in the interplanetary space Chao, a member of the council. much as an expendable tiny aircraft. In
transportation system unveiled during Ultimately, Musk intends for the BFR one case, you have to build an entire
last years International Astronautical to render its current line of rockets and aircraft; in the other, you just have to
Congress (IAC)namely, how to pay spaceships obsolete. This was really refuel something.
for it. quite a profound realization that if we It is really crazy that we build these
The 46-year-old tech entrepreneur can build a system that cannibalizes our sophisticated rockets and then crash
now plans to phase out his companys own products . . . then all the resourc- them every time we fy, he adds. Often
successful Falcon rockets and Dragon eswhich are quite enormousused Ill be told, but you could get more pay-
capsules in favor of a reusable, two- for Falcon 9, Heavy and Dragon can be load if you made it expendable. I said
stage, multipurpose super-heavy-lift applied to one system, Musk said dur- yes, you could also get more payload
launcher that not only can take on the ing a 45-min. presentation at this years from an aircraft if you got rid of the land-
ing gear and the faps and just parachute
out when you got to your destination.
But that would be crazy, and you would
sell zero aircraft.
Luxembourg-based SES, the first
commercial satellite operator to fy on
a Falcon 9, and the frst customer for a

SpaceXs planned super-heavy-


lift, multipurpose replacement for
Falcon rocket and Dragon capsule at
the International Space Station.
previously fown booster, said it would
assess the BFR for future launch ser-
vices, as it would any rocket. SESs
position is to constantly review the
various launch systems available to it,
says Martin Halliwell, SES chief tech-
nology officer. The SpaceX Falcon 9
SPACEX CONCEPT
has proven itself in both expendable
satellite delivery and station resupply IAC, which was held here Sept. 25-29. and fight-proven modes. The BFR is a
fights that keep SpaceX fnancially vi- Some of our customers are conser- completely new system with completely
able but also fy crews and cargo to the vative, and they want to see BFR fly diferent levels of capability, so we will
Moon and Mars. The system, called several times before theyre comfort- have to assess the ft once again for our
the BFR (originally an acronym for big able launching on it. So what we plan requirements.
f***ing rocket, but recently renamed to do is to build ahead and have a stock With 29,135 ft.3 (825 m3) of pressur-
to the more politically palatable Big of Falcon 9 and Dragon vehicles. . . . If ized volume for cargo and a vehicle di-
Falcon Rocket) also could be used for they want to use the old rocket and old ameter of nearly 30 ft. (9 m), the BFR
suborbital, point-to-point travel be- spacecraft, they can do that, he added. could be a game changer for satellite
tween destinations on Earth. Since debuting in June 2010, Falcon design, Musk notes. You could send
Earth hops are some of the first 9 rockets have launched more than 40 a mirror that has 10 times the surface
[BFR] tests that you will actually see, times. The Falcon Heavy, which extends area of the current Hubble [telescope]
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell the feets lift capacity to low Earth or- as a single unitdoesnt have to unfold
said during the Oct. 5 debut meeting bit (LEO) to 140,650 lb., from 50,265 lb. or anything. You do whatever you like,
of the reconstituted National Space (22,800 kg), is due to fy for the frst time he says.
Council, which is stafed by members of before the end of the year. The BFR, in The BFR, powered by 31 methane-
the Trump administration Cabinet and contrast, has a lift capacity to LEO of fueled Raptor engines, is a scaled-
headed by Vice President Mike Pence. 330,000 lb., admittedly overkill for the down design of the 42-engine Inter-
That sounds like something that communications satellites and other planetary Transit System (ITS) Musk
would completely . . . revolutionize long- payloads needing rides into orbit today. unveiled last year. We were really

54 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


searching for . . . how [to] pay for this
thing. We went through various ideas.
. . . These did not pan out. But now we
Simple, Robust
think we have a way to do it, which is
to have a smaller vehiclestill pretty
Japans LE-9 space launch engine
bigbut one that can do everything has passed a frst series of tests
thats needed in the greater Earth-
orbit activity. Bradley Perrett Adelaide, Australia
For Mars transport, the BFRs cargo

J
area would be confgured into 40 cab- apan climbed a technological costs. The LE-9 and H3 launcher, suc-
ins, each housing four to six people, mountain in developing the main cessor to the current H-IIA and H-IIB,
with a central storage area, galley, solar propulsion system for its H-II are due to fy in the fscal year begin-
storm shelter and entertainment area. space launcher series in the 1980s and ning in April 2020.
Musk would like to fly two BFRs un- 90s, producing an engine of difcult The engine characteristics are
manned in 2022, followed by two more configuration that was comparable mostly within predicted variations,
unmanned and two manned missions in with the best that had been achieved says Akihide Kurosu, a senior engineer
2024, when Earth and Mars are again for NASA. of the H3 project at JAXA, reporting
favorably aligned. The goal of these ini- Then Japan climbed down from on the frst series of tests.
tial missions is to fnd the best source that mountain. Launching develop- The LE-9 features the expander-
of water . . . and build the propellant ment of an engine for an H-II suc- bleed process for pumping propellant
plant, says Musk. cessor in 2014, the Japan Aerospace into its combustion chamber. Engines
The BFR also could play a role in Exploration Agency (JAXA) decided of that type use heat from the main
NASAs post-International Space Sta- that the remarkable efciency of the combustion chamber to expand a little
tion plan to put a small base into orbit old launchers first-stage propulsion of their hydrogen fuel and use it not for
around the Moon to support lunar sur- technology, also used by the space burning but to drive the propellant tur-
face activities and serve as a testbed for shuttle, was not worth its production bopumps. This fraction of the fuel, also
technologies needed to send humans to cost. So JAXA and prime contractor a coolant, is eventually bleddumped
Mars. For lunar sorties, the BFR would Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) are overboard.
not need in situ propellant production. now clambering up
A few hours before Musks presen- another technologi-
tation, Lockheed Martin rolled out its cal peak, developing
design for a Moon and Mars lander, the largest engine so
one that would stick with hydrogen for far of a confguration
fuel, rather than methane. The pri- that ofers simplicity
mary reason is just efciency, although and low cost but was
some engineering still needs to be done previously regarded
to fgure out the best way to chill the hy- as suited only to
drogen, says Rob Chambers director of small sizes.
Lockheeds human spacefight strategy. This engine, the
Another reason for using hydrogen is LE-9, has performed
the ubiquity of water. When you start successfully in a
looking at orbital missions at the be- first series of hot-
ginning of exploration, water is every- fre tests, JAXA and
where, but methane is not and carbon MHI reported to the
dioxide is not, he says. International Astro-
For now, Lockheed, like SpaceX, is nautical Congress,
self-funding its vehicle concept, with held here on Sept.
an eye toward competing for potential 25-29. It is intended
NASA commercial services contracts to power the first
for deep-space cargo and supplies deliv- stage of the forth-
eries, a venture that also has caught the coming H3 launcher.
attention of Jef Bezoss space company, Two more series
Blue Origin. of tests for the hy-
Wethe human raceneed all drogen-burning LE-9
the best ideas brought forward, says engine are planned:
Chambers. Even the most radical ideas one for qualifcation
possible get us all out of our comfort and one for verifying
zone and get us thinking. c modifcations to cut

The LE-9 has


Check 6 Aviation Week editors discuss undergone the frst
the blizzard of recent space developments: of three planned
AviationWeek.com/podcast series of tests.
JAXA

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 55


SPACE

But the confguration is difcult to second-biggest was achieving a satis- of an H-IIA launch is undisclosed but is
scale up, notably because transferring factory starting sequence, according probably at least 10 billion ($88 mil-
enough energy into the coolant hydro- to Kurosu. There was success there lion). The LE-9 engine should cost only
gen demands a long, almost pipelike as well. a little more than half as much as the
combustion chamber with a large sur- The LE-9 has been tested to above LE-7A main engine of the H-IIA and
face area. To get the most out of the 225,000 lb. thrust. Designed output is H-IIB.
extracted energy that can be drawn 330,920 lb. JAXA and MHI plan that The LE-7A was the previous but
from that surface, the turbine needs four versions of the H3 will variously overly expensive technical master-
to be highly efcient. mount two or three LE-9s in their piece of JAXA and MHI, featuring
Conducted in April-July, the frst se- core frst stages and zero, two or four the unusually difcult combination of
ries of tests was intended to assess the solid-propellant boosters derived from hydrogen fuel and the staged-combus-
LE-9 in static and transient conditions, the first stage of the Epsilon space tion arrangement for driving propel-
the latter covering startup, throttling launcher. lant pumps. The result was a vacuum
and cutof. Engineers also used the test The duration of frings of the LE-9 specifc impulsecomparing thrust
series to initially verify a system of this year worked up to 78 sec. from the with the rate of fuel consumption
feedback, or closed-loop, control that initial 2.6 sec. The engine was throttled of 440 sec., comparable to the 452
should cut unit costs. Eleven firings down in three of those tests, including sec. of the similarly confgured space
were done at JAXAs Tanegashima fa- the fnal one, in which feedback control shuttle main engine. The LE-9s spe-
cility, which also will be the launch site. was demonstrated. The tested degree cifc impulse should be 425 sec., still
There is no problem about combus- of throttling was from 90% thrust to far higher than can be achieved with
tion stability, program engineer Masa- 70%. Cutoff also was stable, with no the most common space launcher fuel,
ki Adachi of MHI told the International continued burning, Adachi says. kerosene.
Astronautical Congress. Achieving A key objective of the H3 program Feedback control is intended to
combustion stability was the biggest is to deliver launch services at half the contribute to savings by eliminating a
concern before the tests, he says. The cost achieved with the H-IIA. The cost process of adjustment that would oth-

Damage Limitation Regardless of the serviceability of


other launchers, Long March 5s un-
availability is enough to cause consid-
Long March 5s problems do not erable delays for the national space
program, because no other rockets
extend to other Chinese launchers can undertake some of its missions.
The next lunar mission, Change 5,
Bradley Perrett Beijing and Adelaide, Australia will be pushed back a year, for exam-
ple. It will be fown at the end of 2018,

C
hinese space engineers have for other Chinese space launchers; Tian Yulong, secretary general of the
identifed the fault that caused Long March 5 is the only launcher China National Space Administration,
the failure of the second fight of to use the YF-77. The national space said at the International Astronautical
their countrys largest space launcher, program would be facing a far greater Congress, held in Adelaide, Australia,
Long March 5, a problem that appears problem if one of eight YF-100 kero- Sept. 2529.
to be pushing back the mission sched- sene-burning engines in the rockets Change 5, planned to bring a lunar
ule by about a year. boosters had caused the launch failure, sample back to Earth, was previously
The cause of the failure was simply and especially if some inherent short- scheduled for the end of 2017. Because
a manufacturing defect in one of the coming in the design of those power- the spacecraft is larger than those that
two YF-77 hydrogen-burning engines plants were to blame. Both possibili- China has previously sent to the Moon,
of the core first stage, says a source ties were conceivable when the state it requires a Long March 5.
close to the Chinese industry. The fault media tersely announced on the day Describing the Long March 5 failure
was quickly pinned down, says that of the fight that the mission had not as a major challenge to the space agen-
source, who adds there was nothing succeeded (AW&ST July 10-23, p. 20). cy, Tian says the timing of the Change
wrong with the design and the problem The YF-100 is the main engine of 4 mission will also be adjusted. The
should be easily addressed. two other Chinese rockets that have reason is not clear. The spacecraft for
Although the cause of the failure has entered service in the past two years, that mission, smaller than Change 5s
been found, several months of verifca- Long March 6 and 7, both smaller than and developed from the one used for
tion work will be needed, says another Long March 5. The beginning of full- the Change 3 mission of 2013, will pre-
source familiar with the program. That scale development of another, Long sumably be carried by a Long March
suggests that Long March 5, which March 8, is imminent; it will also use 2F to the Moon. Long March 2F is a
frst few in November 2016, cannot be the YF-100 as its main engine. Under- long-established launcher used by pre-
used again this year. scoring the blamelessness of the kero- vious Chinese lunar probes, quite unre-
Isolating the fault to the YF-77 is sene engine, another flight for Long lated to the technology in Long March
particularly important because it March 6, its second, is scheduled for 5 and therefore never under suspicion
means the failure has no implications this year, says a third source. following the July launch failure.

56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


erwise have to be made on each unit the cycle, perhaps many times, un- testbed, RV-X, is 7 m (23 ft.) long and
during acceptance trials. It will do so til the unit meets the specification. has a liftoff weight of 3 metric tons
by automatically meeting the speci- Space launcher engines go through (6,600 lb.). Its single engine is de-
fcation for mixture ratios at various that process because of variations in signed to be used 100 times.
thrust settings, Kurosu says. manufacture. The tests will focus on fault-toler-
The frst series of tests confrmed The H3s second-stage engine is the ance, vertical takeof and landing and
this function only by using sensors in LE-5, also used on the H-IIA and H- aerodynamic guidance and control,
the test facility, rather than with the IIB but slightly improved. It is also an MHI researcher Kotaro Aoki told the
onboard sensors that production en- expander-bleed engine. conference, which was organized by the
gines will use. Each production unit, The technology is becoming some- International Astronautical Federation.
and two intended for qualification thing of a Japanese specialty, one that An initial round of tests, includ-
testing, will incorporate not just the JAXA and MHI engineers see as highly ing at least five flights, is intended to
usual pressure sensor in the combus- suitable for reusable space launchers. take the RV-X to an altitude of 100 m
tion chamber for determining thrust; Lacking the troublesome complication and show that it can fly again within
there also will be a sensor in the pro- of upstream combustion to drive the 24 hr. using only simple ground facili-
pellant lines that determines whether turbopumps, an expander-bleed en- ties and make an emergency landing
pressure is above, below or at the value gine is inherently robust. in case of fault. Higher altitudes will
that corresponds to the correct mix- So an engine of this type will be be attempted in a second series of
ture. If the level is wrong, the engine used in a testbed reusable sounding tests. The evaluations should be com-
automatically adjusts. rocket that is due to fy in the fscal pleted in fiscal 2019.
This should eliminate the usual year beginning April 2018, with the A team of 10 to 20 people has been
lengthy acceptance process of test- aim of demonstrating vertical land- looking at conceptual design of a reus-
ing each engine for mixture at vari- ings and 24-hr. turnarounds. These able launcher, say Akihiro Sato and Yu-
ous thrust levels, changing orifces as capabilities could later be applied to suke Suzuki, the heads of H3 develop-
a physical adjustment, and repeating the frst stage of a space launcher. The ment at MHI and JAXA, respectively. c

The Change 4 spacecraft was The YF-77 is the hydrogen-


a backup for Change 3. Since burning engine of the Long
the earlier mission succeeded, March 5 core frst stage.
Change 4 was modified and
shifted to an out-of-sequence turbo pumps is discarded rather
launch position following than burned in the main com-
Change 5. Tians remarks sug- bustion chamber. Its specific
gest that Change 4 is still being impulse, an efciency measure
kept behind Change 5 and will that compares thrust with the
be conducted in 2019. Change rate of fuel fow, has been stated
4 is intended to land on the far as 428 sec. and 430 sec. Sea-
side of the Moon. level thrust is 52 metric tons
The delays to the lunar mis- (115,000 lb.).
sions raise the possibility that In the original configura-
the launch of the frst module tion used for the frst two Long
of Chinas space station will March 5 shots, the rocket is
also be pushed back by about designed to launch payloads of
a year. Conceivably, a reorder- up to 14 metric tons to geosta-
ing of the manifest could place tionary transfer orbit. The Long
the station ahead of Change March 5B version, omitting the
5, but senior officials will be second stage, is intended to loft
conscious of the greater im- up to 25 metric tons to low Earth
portance of the space station orbit; this is the version that
to the governments prestige. would handle the space station
It would be politically safer to modules.
try Long March 5 again with The YF-77 was developed
CASC

the lunar probe frst. Also, the by the Beijing Aerospace Pro-
space station is due for comple- pulsion Institute, part of the
tion in 2022, so there should be countrys main space industrial
plenty of time for that program group, Casc. Another Casc unit
to recover from delays. it brought the efciency, and techni- based in Beijing, Calt, developed and
The sources did not reveal the exact cal challenge, of burning hydrogen to builds the Long March 5 and 7 and will
nature of the manufacturing defect in launcher main propulsion. The YF-77 develop Long March 8. Cascs main
the YF-77. The engine was a great ad- uses the gas-generator cycle, meaning Shanghai operation, Sast, developed
vance for the Chinese industry, since some propellant used for driving its and builds Long March 6. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 57


MISSILE DEFENSE

says, the supersized SM-3 Block 2A and


lower-altitude Block 1B would provide

New Trajectory the greatest capability faster. We can


provide SM-3 Block 2A ashore as an
under-layer capability for GBI, there-
by maximizing the magazine depth of
those high-value GBIs, he says. We
As Pentagon adds can do that immediately.
The SM-3 Block 2A is in testing and
dollars for missile has already entered limited production.
Raytheons principal supplier is Japans
defense, Raytheon Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which
pitches SM-3s as The SM-3 Block IIA is in limited
production, and testing on the
ICBM killers interceptor continues.

provides the second- and third-stage


boosters and nose cone.
The missile has completed two suc-
James Drew Washington cessful ight tests, and it knocked out
and Jen DiMascio Tucson, Arizona its rst ballistic missile target in Feb-
ruary. But the second intercept test, in
June, failed, reportedly because a sailor

A
fter a series of North Korean ballistic-missile on the USS John Paul Jones pressed
launches, President Donald Trump in August the wrong button and the missile self-
vowed his administration would boost fund- RAYTHEON
destructed after launch. We know it
wasnt the interceptor, Wilson says.
ing for missile defense by billions of dollars. For threats within the atmosphere,
Raytheon is also proposing land-based
Already in the midst of a ballistic By design, the optical seeker developed SM-6 interceptors for the Army. It is
missile defense review expected to for the SM-3 Block 2As enlarged hit-to- the U.S.s longest-range air defense
wrap up by year-end, the Pentagon was kill Kinetic Warhead is also the center- weapon, typically carried by Aegis-
directed to look at what could be done piece of the Redesigned Kill Vehicle equipped guided-missile destroyers.
in the near term. The rst results of (RKV). By 2022, it will begin replacing Dean Gehr, Raytheons director for
presidents push are now visible, with legacy kill vehicles on the new Ground- the Land-Based Standard Missile,
Congress approving the transfer of Based Interceptors (GBI) in Alaska. says the SM-6 has been demonstrated
$367 million from other programs to a The RKV is being developed by a against aircraft, cruise missiles and even
number of missile defense eforts. Boeing-led industry consortium in- ships. It can also intercept missile war-
The transfers fund pursuit of a so- cluding Lockheed Martin and Ray- heads as they reenter the atmosphere
called left-of-launch capability to theon. Raytheon says that with a few and after any decoys have burned up.
defeat mobile missiles while they are software tweaks ported across from Youve got a lot of capability in the
still on the groundwhether using the RKV, the SM-3 Block 2A could be SM-3 and SM-6, so why not bring that
a missile red from a ghter, a ship- used against ICBM targets. capability ashore? Gehr says. It al-
launched weapon or an attack by spe- On the RKV program, were devel- ready is ashore as part of Aegis Ashore,
cial forces. They also provide funding oping algorithms to improve the per- but bring it into a form factor where we
to start the massive efort of creating formance capability of that sensor. Its can integrate it with existing Army sys-
20 new missile-defense silos at Fort nothing more than software and rm- tems, then youve got layered defense.
Greely, Alaska, as well as for upgrades ware, explains Rondell Wilson, Ray- Raytheon has proposed different
to a sea-based X-band radar and ad- theons lead engineer for air and missile launcher options for SM-6, such as the
ditional testing of the SM-3 Block 2A defense products. That goes directly M1120 HEMTT Load-Handling system
interceptor. back into SM-3 Block 2A, and now you used with Lockheed Martins Terminal
Raytheon has been pitching the latest have an ICBM-killer capability. High-Altitude Air Defense (Thaad) sys-
Block 2A version of its SM-3 air-defense The SM-3 Block 2A will be the prima- tem. Fire control for the Army could be
missile, which is being cooperatively ry armament of the U.S. Aegis Ashore provided by Northrop Grummans Inte-
developed by the U.S. and Japan to de- site being activated in Poland next grated Air and Missile Defense Battle
stroy medium- and intermediate-range year. Raytheon says similar land-based Command System.
missiles in space during the midcourse installations could be set up in Hawaii Raytheon also wants the Pentagon
stage of their flight and is to be used or on the U.S. East or West Coasts as to adopt its long-range radar systems,
against even longer-range missiles. a redundant second layer of defense specically the Thaad systems X-band
The enlarged, 21-in.-dia. missile al- against potential missile attacks. TPY-2 and the S-band SPY-6 Air and
ready has the speed, range and altitude If billions of additional dollars are Missile Defense Radar under develop-
performance needed to defeat ICBMs. unlocked for missile defense, Wilson ment for the Navy. c

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


Anatomy of a 1
1 | Exoatmospheric
Kill Vehicle and

Ground-Based 2
EKV adapter

2 | Booster avionics
module

Interceptor 3
5
4 3 | Stage 3 motor
(Orion 38)
Motor diameter: 38.0 in.
Nozzle diameter: 20.7 in.
Key Suppliers:
Motor length: 52.6 in.
Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle: Raytheon and Aerojet Rocketdyne Total weight: 1,924 lb.
Integrated Boost Vehicle: Boeing and Orbital ATK
6 Burn time to 30 psia: 66.8 sec.
Maximum thrust: 8,303 lb.
Oversight:
Missile Defense Agency GMD Joint Program Ofce
4 | Payload shroud
The Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI) is the central fight compo- 7
nent of the Boeing Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) sys- 5 | Stage 2/3 interstage and
tem, standing 54.5 ft. tall and measuring 50 in. in diameter with a adapter ring
liftof mass of 49,567 lb. It is the only operational U.S. interceptor
built specifcally to destroy intercontinental ballistic missiles in 6 | Stage 2 motor
space before their deadly payloads can reenter the atmosphere. (Orion 50XL)
The three-stage rocket is based on three solid-fuel Orion motors Motor diameter: 50.2 in.
drawn from Orbital ATKs Pegasus, Taurus and Minotaur families Nozzle diameter: 33.9 in.
of space launch vehicles. The Orion motors are produced in Utah Motor length: 120.9 in.
and then integrated by Boeing at Vandenberg AFB in California. Total weight: 9,494 lb.
The missile is topped by Raytheons exoatmospheric hit-to-kill Burn time to 30 psia: 71 sec.
interceptor, which seeks out and extinguishes target reentry ve- Maximum thrust: 43,713 lb.
hicles. The GBI booster has gone through three iterations, each
adding new capabilities and reliability enhancements, including an 7 | Stage 1/2 interstage
inertial measurement unit, onboard batteries as well as environ-
8
mental protection and ignition safety features. In future versions, 8 | Stage 1 motor
operators will be able to select whether to fre all three stages (Orion 50S XLG)
or just two, depending on the range of the intended target. The Motor diameter: 50.2 in.
Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has also announced plans for a Nozzle diameter: 36.0 in.
next-generation, multi-stage Common Boost Vehicle for deploy- Motor length: 372.4 in.
ment around 2024. Total weight: 35,525 lb.
Burn time to 30 psia: 69 sec.
Maximum thrust: 150,010 lb.
Shroud
Exoatmospheric 9 | Aft skirt
Kill Vehicle Stage 3 motor
and adapter (Orion 38)

Booster
avionics
module Adapter
ring
Stage 2 motor Source: Orbital ATK

Stage 2/3 (Orion 50 XL)


interstage
Shroud 9
Source: Missile Defense Agency

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 59


MISSILE DEFENSE

Raytheons kill vehicles


are produced at its Space
Factory near Tucson,
Arizona. Designed to inter-
cept nuclear-armed reentry
vehicles in the vacuum of
space, they must be assem-
bled with extreme precision.
a hand-made prototype, leading
to well-documented reliability
issues and intercept test fail-
ures. However, Raytheon says
hard-earned lessons from past
problems have been incorpo-
rated into this latest variant,
the CE-2 Block 1.
In May, a CE-2 Block 1 EKV
destroyed a mock ICBM for the
frst time in the programs his-
tory. The next step is the GMD
systems frst operational trial
RAYTHEON against an ICBM target. It will
be the most complex and real-

Space Factory istic test yet.


The Senate version of the fiscal
2018 defense authorization bill would
Can Congress stop missile defense kill-vehicle provide up to 28 new interceptors, of
which half would be operationally ac-
production from fatlining? tivated, bringing the total to 58. The
other 14 would be kept in storage as
Jennifer DiMascio Tucson, Arizona and James Drew Washington spares. The Houses markup of the
bill would approve $351 million to in-

A
t Raytheons Space Factory, Growth seems likely. Support for an crease Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI)
nestled in the Sonoran Desert, expanded fleet includes members of magazine capacity and purchase three
engineers are building some of Congress and even the Chairman of additional kill vehicles and seven three-
the worlds most complex and sensitive the Joint Chiefs of Staf Marine Gen. Jo- stage, solid-fuel GBI boosters.
military devices: Exoatmospheric Kill seph Dunford. We do think an increase In addition, Congress has recently
Vehicles, or EKVs, designed to protect is warranted, he says. approved the transfer of funding in
the U.S. from the worlds deadliest That could help Raytheon bridge fiscal 2017 to create 20 new silos in
weapons. what would otherwise be a five-year Alaska to house additional GBIs that
In a room designed to filter out production gap, before the EKVs suc- are expected to use the RKV, eventually
nearly all dust particles from the air, cessor payload, the Redesigned Kill Ve- bringing the total number of intercep-
two EKVsdubbed Payload 70 and 71 hicle (RKV), comes online about 2022. tors to 64.
are nearing the end of their assem- Raytheon officials say the govern- Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), chairman
bly. These two payloads, one of which ment should at least buy additional of the House subcommittee on strate-
is the Block 1 variant, are scheduled to rounds to replace those boosters and gic forces, has been advocating for up
be launched on Ground-Based Inter- kill vehicles expended during testing to 100 GBI rounds, including standing
ceptors to snuf out a mock intercon- to maintain a flight-ready fleet of 44 up an East Coast missile defense site.
tinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in an interceptors. Im happy were going to add 20 more
upcoming operational test. We have options. We can provide interceptors, but it should be 60 more,
They are among the last of the the government with several more, he says. We really dont have enough,
Capability Enhancement II (CE-2) se- says Rondell Wilson, Raytheons lead and we need to recognize that fact and
ries of EKVs being delivered by Raythe- engineer for air and missile defense get after it more aggressively.
on. Production is winding down, since products. Were ofering the govern- Rogers says the U.S. should never
the U.S.s current plan calls for felding ment ways to ramp up the quantities. have paused GBI production as it did
just 44 interceptors by year-end. The That will keep the numbers at 44 for a in the past and should not do so now.
question now is whether more will be longer period of time until the next kill If the last kill vehicle rolls of the line
required to replace the ones that will vehicle [RKV] comes online. this year, that gives you approximately
be lost to testing, such as Payloads 70 The Space Factory opened in 2002, 44 or 45 kill vehicles in the feet. As you
and 71, or whether the entire Boeing- and the frst generation of EKVs went test those kill vehicles, youre dropping
led Ground-Based Midcourse Defense into operational service two years below 44 after a period of time, Wilson
(GMD) feet will grow beyond 44. later. The original EKV was essentially explains. Time is of the essence to get

60 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


Anatomy of the
Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle
The culmination of decades of research, testing and re- The EKV uses advanced discrimination algorithms to difer-
fnement of hit-to-kill interceptor technology, the Exoat- entiate between target reentry vehicles and decoys or space
mospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV) is designed to intercept pay- debris. Within the next fve years, the EKV will be replaced
loads of high-speed ballistic missiles in the midcourse or by the more modular, reliable and lower-cost Redesigned
exoatmospheric phase of fight in space. A prototype EKV Kill Vehicle (RKV) being developed by Boeing with Lockheed
successfully intercepted its frst missile target in 1999 and Martin and Raytheon. By 2025, the Missile Defense Agency
was put into production in 2003 to meet the George W. Bush plans to demonstrate the next-generation Multi-Object Kill
administrations urgent requirement for a homeland missile Vehicle, which would carry several tiny kill vehicles on a com-
defense capability. The EKV acquires and tracks targets us- mon maneuvering payload bus. Each miniature kill vehicle
ing a highly sensitive infrared sensor, with target updates will have its own seeker and two-way communications data
provided by terrestrial and space-based sensors and radars. link for collaborative discrimination and targeting.

Divert thrusters

Inertial measurement unit Fuel and oxidizer tanks

Sensor sunshade
Attitude control thrusters

Electronic control unit


Electro-optical/infrared wideband sensor Battery pack
Radio transceiver and antenna
Composite body structure

Sources: Raytheon and the Missile Defense Agency

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 61


MISSILE DEFENSE

those additional quantities out there. If not newer, more reliable CE-2 Block 1s. frst step is to deliver RKV, to build the
you turn EKV of, its harder to turn it The program remains one of the confdence in the warfghters mindset
back on. MDAs top priorities, despite work be- and improve tactics, techniques and
As Raytheon works to sell additional ing slowed in the agencys latest bud- procedures.
EKVs, a team including Boeing, Lock- get request. The RKV was set to begin Boeing is responsible for the overall
heed Martin and Raytheon are proceed- replacing EKVs starting in 2020, after RKV program, and Lockheed and Ray-
ing with development of the RKV. testing, but the latest schedule delays theon are major suppliers. Raytheon is
The Boeing-led program, which com- several key tests by 1-2 years to begin handling more than 50% of the work-
pleted a preliminary design review in felding the weapon system in 2022. share, including eventual production
March, is valued at $5.8 billion. It brings MDA Director Lt. Gen. Samuel in Tucson, Arizona, in its specialized
together experts from across the U.S. Greaves says he is confdent in the GMD Space Factory.
missile defense community in a na- systems ability to counter new threats The team is working toward a critical
tional efort to increase the reliability, from North Korea. Although he was design review, after which actual hard-
producibility, testability and cost-efec- referring to the current generation of ware will start coming together for test-
tiveness of kill vehicles, according to GBIs and EKVs, he says the RKV is the ing. Raytheon is confdent the RKV can
the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA), necessary next step in the improvement be delivered sooner than the latest time
which is responsible for the program. and evolution of kill-vehicle technology. line without compromising engineering.
The RKV will begin replacing origi- RKV is an improved single-shot Wilson says the legacy EKVs were
nal CE-1 and CE-2 EKV variants, but capability, Greaves explains. The rushed into production and felded to

Clustered Kill Vehicles


Raytheon warns against short-changing MOKV development
James Drew Washington and Jen DiMascio Tucson, Arizona

T
he Holy Grail of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) tion to come at the expense of the nearer-term Redesigned
has long been the Multi-Object Kill Vehicle (MOKV), Kill Vehicle (RKV) being developed by Boeing along with
which would allow one interceptor to tackle several Lockheed and Raytheon.
incoming nuclear warheads hurtling toward the U.S. The importance of RKV cannot be overstated, says
The realization of this technology could make todays Rondell Wilson, Raytheons lead engineer for air and mis-
interceptors look rather primitive and wasteful, since op- sile defense products. There is no new science here. None.
erators must currently fre two or three multimillion-dollar It is really about engineering and integration. MOKV, while
Ground-Based Interceptors (GBI) at each warhead they de- that capability is needed based on where the threat is going,
tect to maximize the chances of success. that technology is further out. It is not as mature.
The feet of interceptors located at Fort Greely, Alaska, Wilson also was involved in this kind of work when Lock-
and Vandenberg AFB, California, might take on 20 incoming heed and Raytheon frst developed MOKV-like concepts un-
warheads at most when armed with the single-target Exoat- der the MDAs Multi-Kill Vehicle (MKV) program, which was
mospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV). But what happens if each in- terminated by Defense Secretary Robert Gates in 2009. The
coming missile carries multiple warheads, plus decoys and cancelation of MKV came not long after Lockheed conducted
other penetration aids? That is where MOKV would excel. a simulation of its kill-vehicle concept operating in space at
The MDA has hired Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Ray- the National Hover Test Facility at Edwards AFB, California,
theon to begin maturing the advanced sensor, guidance, in December 2008.
propulsion and communication technologies required for The competing systems from Lockheed and Raytheon
the MOKV payload, essentially a cluster of tiny, wirelessly were dubbed MKV-L and MKV-R, respectively, and would
networked kill vehicles. have armed the GBI, SM-3 Block 2A air-defense missile and
Support for the program has been increasing in the wake the MDAs now-defunct Kinetic Energy Interceptor. After
of new missile tests by North Korea and Iran, which U.S. several years in limbo, the initiative resumed in 2015 under
President Donald Trump singled out as rogue nations from MOKV.
the U.N. podium Sept. 19, where he emphasized that the The three companies involved are reticent to discuss their
countries are two of the most serious threats to U.S. na- concepts because much of the work is classifed. But each
tional security. mini kill vehicle will be independently targetable with its own
To counter the potential threat of a missile raid by one of sensor for object identifcation, tracking and discrimination
these countries, the MDA has proposed accelerating MOKV using advanced algorithms. They will also communicate with
by about fve years for deployment in the latter half of the each other via data link for collaborative swarming.
2020s. Wilson anticipates strong support for MOKV from the
But while contractors involved in MOKV would happily Trump administration. In fact, the MDAs budget proposal
speed up development of their competing concepts with the for fscal 2018 would accelerate the program, with the goal of
infusion of additional funds, they do not want the accelera- achieving demonstrated capability in the 2025 time frame.

62 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


meet urgent national requirements. ment last year and is now developing easier to produce, and if something
The drivers then, as now, are North software updates for better tracking needs to be modifed or updated on the
Korea and Iran. and target discrimination of rogue kill vehicle, its out of commission for
People liken [the EKV] to a pro- warheads, as well as algorithms to dis- weeks instead of months at a time.
totype vehicle that was prepped for tinguish real warheads from decoys and The GMD system is the largest and
service, and thats not too far from the penetration aids. most costly element of the U.S. ballistic
truth. Its a very complex vehicle to The RKVs communication system missile defense architecture, requiring
build, Wilson says. Its taken several is being improved to receive targeting billions of dollars in funding each year.
iterations of manufacturing experience information updates throughout most Since 2002, the MDA has received ap-
to build it properly. I think its a very of the fight, instead of intermittently. proximately $123 billion from Congress
reliable vehicle; however, the lessons The government has also reinstated key to develop that architecture, which
learned on how difcult it is to produce survivability requirements to overcome includes money for GMD, Terminal
that vehicle have been rolled into the advanced enemy tactics such as blind- High-Altitude Area Defense, Aegis and
Standard Missile-3 family and RKV. ing by nuclear explosion. The number dozens of other interceptors, launchers,
The new RKV uses the same seek- of unique parts required to build the sensors and command-and-control sys-
er developed for the newest SM-3 RKV will also come down dramatically tems. The MDA will require $37 billion
Block 2A exoatmospheric interceptor. to reduce cost and streamline assembly. more through fiscal 2021 to continue
The industry team completed a seeker [RKV is] a capability thats needed those eforts, says the U.S. Government
requirements review with the govern- by the warfighter, Wilson says. Its Accountability Ofce. c

MISSILE DEFENSE AGENCY


The agencys new acqui- Boeing and Lockheed are
sition strategy compresses leveraging their work on past
the risk-reduction and prod- initiatives and the ongoing RKV
uct-development phases to program to grow their in-house
shave about fve years of the kill-vehicle teams and challenge
schedule. Wilson says the Raytheon.
competing kill-vehicle teams David Dutcher, Boeings di-
were awarded contracts ear- rector of GBI and RKV pro-
lier this year for the initial grams, says the company has
30-month technology matu- the knowledge and experience
ration phase. That period to produce kill vehicles and will
will be followed by a two-year be gunning to win a prime posi-
proof-of-concept phase prior tion for MOKV development and
to the source-selection deci- production. He points to Boeings
sion for development, pro- contributions to the Raytheon
duction and felding. Standard Missile-3 and Lock-
With what is going on heed Patriot Advanced Capabil-
in the world today, I would ity-3 interceptors and extensive
like to see an acceleration of experience pairing Raytheons
MOKV, he says. [But] we EKV with GBI booster stacks.
should not rush to MOKV at We certainly believe were ca-
the expense of RKV. pable of being in the kill-vehicle
Some of those cutting- product line, he says.
edge technologies are not at Bruce Jurcevich, Lockheeds
the appropriate technology director of advanced intercep-
readiness level. Based on my tor systems, says his company
26-plus years of experience in The Multi-Object Kill Vehicle program was is committed to the MDAs two-
kill vehicles, I want to make resurrected by the Obama administration, which phase approach of building RKV
sure we do not short-change had terminated an earlier efort called Multiple Kill and then MOKV. Lockheeds
risk reduction for MOKV, Vehicle (MKV). Raytheon and Lockheed Martin had RKV team is based in Huntsville,
Wilson stresses. been maturing competing concepts (Lockheeds Alabama, and its MOKV group
The MDAs fscal 2018 bud- pictured) for MKV prior to its cancelation in 2009. operates from Sunnyvale, Cali-
get proposal includes $253 fornia.
million for MOKV-related technology development, including Jurcevich says a signifcant number of lessons learned
development and testing of a small solid-propellant divert from Lockheeds earlier MKV program will be applied to
and attitude control system. Spending on MOKV will aver- MOKV development, with the aim of enabling each intercep-
age $230 million per year through fscal 2022 to complete tor to take out multiple incoming threats.
technology maturation and begin development. The latest round of contracts for MOKV was awarded to
At Raytheon, the MOKV program is being run by its Ad- Lockheed and Raytheon in April and Boeing in May. They
vanced Missile Systems innovation cell. It is the companys are valued at $53-60 million each, with a period of perfor-
sixth distinct kill-vehicle product. mance scheduled to run through early 2020. c

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Candidates whose research programs in Aeronautics and Astronautics will involve the or 208-772-7721
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AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 65


Viewpoint

Boeing Subsidy
Target Is China
By Danny Lam BomBardier

T
he trade dispute sparked by Boeings charges that that, and Bombardier nearly went bankrupt in 2015 be-
Bombardier is dumping C Series aircraft at unfair fore receiving investments from Canadian provincial
prices is marked by loud rhetoric on both sides of and federal entities of at least $3 billion.
the U.S.-Canada border. Ottawas Liberal government In May 2017, the Financial Times reported that Comac
has threatened Boeings defense business in Canada and and Bombardier held talks about Chinese entities buy-
enlisted UK Prime Minister Theresa May to lobby U.S. ing a stake in Bombardier Commercial Aircraft or the
President Donald Trump. But Canadas attempts to de- C Series, quoting an unnamed source as saying, every-
rail the petitions fled by Boeing with the U.S. Commerce thing is on the table. That included Chinese access to
Department and International Trade Commission have Bombardiers technologies and its marketing, distribu-
had no efect so far. The reason: The true target is not tion and support infrastructure. This potential collabo-
really Canada, but China and its aircraft industry. ration with China is, in my opinion, the principal but un-
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer charges spoken reason behind Boeings trade complaint.
that Beijings eforts to subsidize and create national As a Canadian company, Bombardier is entitled to
champions and force technology transfers distorts mar- preferences under the North American Free Trade Act
kets throughout the world and is an unprecedented (NAFTA) that sharply restrict U.S. trade actions so long
threat to the global trading system. Take aviation. By as the product qualifes as NAFTA-origin. Indeed, Can-
2036, China is projected to be the No. 1 or No. 2 market adas entitlement to arbitration under NAFTAs Section
in commercial aviation, a sector long dominated by Air- 19 may be its last resort in the C Series dispute short
bus and Boeing. Its national champion is Comac, which of taking its case to the World Trade Organization. Not
manufactures the ARJ21 regional jet and C919 narrow- surprisingly, the U.S. wants to eliminate Chapter 19 in
body and is developingwith Russiathe CR929 wide- the renegotiation of NAFTA now underway.

So long as components add up to 50% of transaction


Bombardiers strategy value or 60% of net cost, a product qualifes for NAFTA
preference. What if Chinese aerospace companies gained
amounts to aiding and abetting access to those same NAFTA preferences?
In its defense against Boeings claims, Bombardier
Chinese mercantilism. says more than 50% of Canadian-assembled C Series
aircraft come from the U.S., including its engines and
avionics. The wing comes from Bombardiers plant in
body. Beijings Made in China 2025 plan sets aggres- Northern Ireland, but much of the fuselage already
sive targets for its aircraft industry, tasking Comac with comes from SACC in China. It is conceivable that Bom-
taking more than 10% of the domestic market for main- bardier could incorporate NAFTA-qualifed engines,
line commercial aircraft. avionics and subsystems, but complete the fnal assem-
That goal is backed by mercantilist policies and bly in Chinaand have an aircraft that still qualifes as
substantial government subsidies. Beijing has tried to NAFTA-origin under the current rules.
break into markets before. China has poured tens of Similarly, Chinese-built aircraft branded Bom-
billions of dollars into cracking the semiconductor oli- bardier could be sold from Canada while bypassing
gopoly controlled by U.S., Japanese, South Korean and all tarifs against a China-based manufacturer. And
Taiwanese companies. But so far it has not been suc- Bombardier technology could enable Comac to build a
cessful in securing state-of-the-art integrated-circuit successor to the C919 that would be truly competitive
manufacturing technology because the industry has with Airbus and Boeing oferings in China. In other
worked collaboratively to frustrate Chinese mercantil- words, with Chinese investment, Comac-Bombardier
ist ambitions. This has prevented the semiconductor could rapidly stand up as a capable competitor to the
market from sufering the fate of solar photovoltaics, Airbus-Boeing duopoly in the North American and
or steel, where the market has been gutted by excess Chinese markets.
capacity from hundreds of new Chinese businesses. Boeings complaints about C Series subsidies are
Bombardiers China strategy amounts to aiding and getting the media attention, but Bombardiers willing-
abetting Chinese mercantilism in commercial aviation, ness to transfer technologies and knowhow to China is
with predictable consequences for the global aero- at the heart of this trade dispute. c
space industry. The company entered into an agree-
ment with Comac in 2012 to explore synergies between Danny Lam is a research associate at the University of Water-
the C Series and C919, with the goal of challenging the loo in Ontario. His research includes work on China, NAFTA
Airbus-Boeing duopoly. Nothing concrete came out of and defense issues.

66 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 aviationWeek.com/awst


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