Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Ernest Moniz
Cecil & Ida Green Professor of
Physics and Engineering Systems
Director, MIT Energy Initiative
1
Some climate observations
Natural GHG effect/H2O (almost 60 degrees Fahrenheit)
2
Global Carbon Cycle (IPCC/EIA)
All Entries in Billion Metric Tons
ATMOSPHERE
780 (900 eq)
6.5
1.6 0.5
61.3
60.0
Changing 92
Land-Use 90
FOSSIL FUEL
COMBUSTION
3
Its later and more serious -- than we think
Without Policy With Policy
Power
Dissipation
Index(PDI)
= T0 Vmax3dt
(ameasure
of storm
destruction)
Required
Roughly one
tonne per person?
MIT e i
MIT
MI T Energy Initiative 6
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47
35 34 34
23
16 14 12
GDP per capita ($k ppp)
10 10 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 0.7 0.3
19
15.8 CO2 per capita
11 (tons)
9.7 10
8.6
6.2
6.2 6.6
4.1 4.3 5
1.9 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.1 0 0 0.03
6.1
5.7
7 7
Developing Countries Focus on Income Growth
US India
Greenstone 8
Some observations
Unusual case of experts more worried than public! (Socolow, Princeton)
arithmetic. (G.B.Shaw/Gibbons)
a
century scale); natural variation also occurs
9
US Carbon Dioxide Emissions (EIA
BAU)
Millions of Metric Tons
Residential + Industrial Transportation Total
Commercial
Natural Gas
Natural Gas 392 483 399 433 33 43 824 959
10
MIT Future of Natural Gas Study 11
U.S. Gas Supply Cost Curve
* Cost curves calculated using 2007 cost bases. U.S. costs represent wellhead breakeven costs. Cost curves calculated assuming 10% real discount rate, ICF Hydrocarbon
Supply Model
11
MIT Future of Natural Gas Study 1212
Price-based
mitigation
50% by 2050
No offsets
Electric sector
Total energy
MIT Future of Natural Gas Study 13
Nuclear or other
low-CO2
generation
Gas
Obama platform
Climate policy elements
Economy-wide cap & trade
1990 emissions levels by 2020 (14% reduction)
80% reduction by 2050
Emissions credits auctioned
$15B/year of auction revenue for clean energy RDD&D
Major challenges
Financial crisis/deep recession
Regional differences/allocations?
Obama platform contd
Efficiency programs
Federal energy consumption: -25% retrofit of Federal buildings in
five years
National requirement for utility decoupling (authorities?)
Weatherize a million
Weatherize million homes
homes annually
annuall
y
Set national building efficiency goals
Obama platform contd
International position
Major
Major emitters
emitters focus
focus on action
action
Start on transparency of monitoring and verification
Critical role of adaptation acknowledged, with funds to least developed
National responsibilities recorded for MANY countries
Will UNFCCC process revive as central venue for negotiations? EU, Japan, Russia,
Mexico, Indonesia, position?
Major Economies Forum? G20? Other configurations of major emitters representing 80-90% of emissions?
No real shot at 450 ppm CO2-eq?
Copenhagen Accord Registrations:
Brazil, China, India, USA
USA
CO2 emissions 17% below 2005 by 2020
83% by 2050
India
20-25% lower CO2/GDP by 2020
Near term implementation of standards on fuel efficiency and building energy use
20% non-large-hydro renewables by 2020 (now 8%)
Brazil
36-39% less CO2 than BAU in 2020 (roughly 1994 levels)
Reduce deforestation by 80% vs historical practice in 2020
EU
Demand reduction
Efficiency across sectors, but especially buildings and transportation
Electricity and NG for buildings, oil for transportation
Increased renewables/RES?
Wh at should
What should be
be the
the revised
revised energy/climate
energy/climate strategy?
strategy?
What should be the policy with regard to intermittent
renewables?
How should we engage internationally?
What should we do about DOE and energy technology
innovation?
21
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