School/District/County Office of Education:

Charter School of San Diego (CSSD) / CSSD/ San Diego County

Teacher: David Hurd

Assignment: Core Academic Area Grade Level/Course:

Alternative Programs Math Tier 2 7 Probability

A. Standard to be taught (If only a portion of the standard is to be taught, indicate which portion):

CA- California Common Core State Standards (2012)

Subject: Mathematics
Grade: Grade 7
Domain: Statistics and Probability 7.SP
Area: Investigate chance processes and develop, use, and evaluate probability models.
Standard:
5. Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event
occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around
1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

B. Teacher input:

Instructional Input

Anticipatory Set:

APK: To begin today's lesson I would like each of you to fill out our prior knowledge chart, and the KWL chart. Inform
students how to complete the prior knowledge and KWL chart.

Purpose: Today we will be learning about probability. By the end of todays lessons you will all know what probability
is, the different ways to express probability numerically, (ratio, a decimal, and percentage), and understand how
probability is used in the real world.

Engage: What are the odd?

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/28/15510840-11-things-more-likely-to-happen-than-winning-the-
powerball-jackpot?lite

Essential Question: Many students tend to think that learning about probability doesnt have anything to do with
real-life. What do you and your partner think? How is the probability of an event determined and
described? Brainstorm this idea. On paper, list and illustrate an example or situation where probability is used in real
life situations.

Direct Instruction: Teacher will begin by introducing the standard that the students will be learning.

Standard: As a result of this lesson students will be able to represent probabilities as ratios, proportions,
decimals between 0 and 1, and percentages between 0 and 100 and verify that probabilities computed are
reasonable; know that if P is the probability of an event, 1 - P is the probabilities of an event not occurring.

Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of
the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely
event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and probability near 1
indicates a likely event.
 Specific Vocabulary:

Statistics: The science that deals with the collection, classification, analysis, and interpretation of
numerical facts or data.

Outcome: The result of a single trial such as a coin flips.

Probability: The likelihood that something will happen; expressed as a number from 0 to 1, and can be
written as a fraction, decimal, or as a percentage.

P(event occurring) = Number of favorable outcomes/number of possible outcomes

Percent: One part of 100 - 20/100=20%

Random: Lacking or seeming to lack a regular plan, marked by an absence of bias.

Modeling:

EXAMPLE: We have a bag with 9 red marbles, 2 blue marbles, and 3 green marbles in it. What is the probability of
randomly selecting a non-Blue marble from the bag?

EXAMPLE: A number cube has faces labeled 1 through 6. What is the probability of rolling a 5 on a single roll? What
is the probability of not rolling a five? Express each answer as a fraction, a decimal, and as a percent.

Step 1: To find the probability of rolling a five, first determine the number of favorable outcomes and the total
number of possible outcomes.

There is only one 5 on the number cube, so the number of favorable outcomes is .

There are six numbers on the number cube, so the total number of possible outcomes is .

Step 2: Use the ratio below and substitute.

P(Event Occurring) = Number of Favorable Outcomes/Number of Possible Outcomes

P(5)= .

Step 3: Use the formula 1-P to find the probability of not rolling 5.

P(Not 5) = 1 - P

P(Not 5) = 1-1/6 =

Express the probability of rolling a five as a Fraction: Decimal: and as a Percent: .

Guided Practice:

EXAMPLE: A number cube has faces labeled 1 through 6. What is the probability of rolling an even number on
a single roll? What is the probability of not rolling an even number? Express each answer as a fraction, a
decimal, and as a percent.

Step 1: To find the probability of rolling an even number, first determine the number of favorable outcomes
and the total number of possible outcomes.

There is three even numbers on the number cube, so the number of favorable outcome is .

There are six numbers on the number cube, so the total number of possible outcomes is .
 Step 2: Use the ratio above and substitute.

P(Event Occurring) = Number of Favorable Outcomes/Number of Possible Outcomes

P(Even Number)= .

Step 3: Use the formula 1-P to find the probability of not rolling an even number.

P(Not Even Number) = 1 - P

P(Not Even Number) = 1-1/2 =

Express the probability of rolling a five as a fraction: Decimal: and as a Percent: .

Example: You spin a spinner one time. What is the probability that the pointer will stop on an odd
number?

Step 1: To find the probability that the pointer will stop on an odd number, first determine the number of
favorable outcomes.

There are odd numbers on the spinner.

Step 2: Determine the number of possible outcomes.

The pointer can stop on different sections that are the same size.

Step 3: Determine the probability of the pointer stopping on an odd number by substituting values into
the ratio: P(EVENT) = Number of Favorable Outcomes/Number of possible outcomes.

P(odd) = ?/8

What is the probability that the pointer will stop on an odd number?

Group Practice: To help students gain a deeper understanding of probability they will work on the following problems
in groups. These groups will be formed based on student seating at tables.

Group Problem: Imagine that you have boarded an airplane headed to a destination of your choice.

The following is true of the airplane:

The rows are number 1 - 30.

There are six seats per row, three on each side of the aisle.

Seats in each row are labeled A through F.

Using that information, work together in your groups to solve the problems listed below. Draw a diagram
of the plane seating arrangement based on the information given above.

1. How many seats are in the airplane?

2. What is your probability of sitting in row number 7?

3. What is your probability of sitting in a window seat?

4. What is your probability sitting in a "A" seat?

5. What are your chances of sitting in an even-numbered row?

Express each answer as a ratio/fraction, decimal, percent.

Optional Discussion Activity: If time permits groups will share their answers. Please elicit responses from each
group and each member. Ask student how they arrived at their answer and for detailed explanations.

Optional Discussion Questions:

1. What does it mean when you hear the weather reporter predicts a 10 percent chance of rain? Is that a high or
low probability?
2. How do you think authors of The Farmer's Almanac make their predictions about weather for a year? How do
you think they use probability?

Optional Extension Activity:

1. Probability in Articles: Have students look at newspapers or magazines (Online) for examples of how
politicians, educators, environmentalist, or other professionals use data such as statistics and probability.
Then have them analyze the use of the information. Have students provide evidence to support their
ideas/answers.
1. Why did the person use data?

2. What points were effectively made?

3. Were the data useful?

4. Did the data strengthen the argument?

Check for Understanding (CFU): While students are working in their groups teacher will proximity monitor
students and ask questions to illicit student understanding.

B. Student work to be assigned (Attach, if need be):

Closure: Probability is an important guide in making decisions or taking actions in life. I would like each of you to
complete the question on this half sheet of paper. Please answer the question thoughtfully and thoroughly to display
your understanding of today's lesson. Student responses will be graded on the following scale/rubric.

Essential Question: Many students tend to think that learning about probability doesnt have anything to do with
real-life. What do you think? How is the probability of an event determined and described? Please provide a real
world example of probability.

1. 3 Points: Student shows a strong understanding of probability based on their participation in class, their ability
to complete the group activity, and the closure activity.
2. 2 Points: Student shows a moderate understanding of probability based on their participation in class, their
ability to complete the group activity, and the closure activity.

3. 1 Point: Student shows a weak understanding of probability based on their participation in class, their ability
to complete the group activity, and the closure activity.
Student Name:

Imagine that you have boarded an airplane to a destination of your choice. The rows are numbered from 1 to 30,
and there are six seats per row, three on each side of the isle. Seats in each row are labeled A through F. Using that
information, work together at your tables to solve the problems listed below.
a. How many seats are in the airplane?

b. What are your chances of sitting in row number 7?

c. What are your chances of sitting in a window seat?

d. What are your chances of sitting in an A seat?

e. What are your chances of sitting in an even-numbered row?

Essential Question: Many students tend to think that learning about probability doesnt have anything to do with
real life. What do you think? How is the probability of an event determined and describe. Please provide a real life
example.

Imagine that you have boarded an airplane to a destination of your choice. The rows are numbered from 1
to 30, and there are six seats per row, three on each side of the isle. Seats in each row are labeled A
through F. Using that information, work together at your tables to solve the problems listed below.
With all else being equal and every passenger having an equal chance at seating, please
answer the problems below.
a. How many seats are in the airplane? 180 seats
b. What are your chances of sitting in row number 7? 6/180, or 1/30 .03333 or 3.3%

c. What are your chances of sitting in a window seat? There are two window seats per aisle, for
a total of 60 window seats. Your chances of sitting at a window would be 60/180, or
1/3. .333 33.3%

d. What are your chances of sitting in an A seat? There are 30 A seats, so your chances are
30/180, or 1/6. .1666 or 16.6%

e. What are your chances of sitting in an even-numbered row? Of the 30 rows, 15 are even-
numbered, so your chances are 15/30, or 1/2. .50 or 50%