100RC Belgrade PRA May17

BELGRADE
PRELIMINARY
RESILIENCE
ASSESSMENT
BELGRADE
PRELIMINARY
RESILIENCE
ASSESSMENT
MAY 2017
BELGRADE
Resilient Belgrade Office
The Preliminary Resilience Assessment of Belgrade was produced by the Office of Urban Resilience of the City of
Belgrade in collaboration with the strategic partner BuroHappold Engineering. The Office of Urban Resilience and
strategic partnership are supported by the 100 Resilient Cities pioneered by the Rockefeller Foundation.
Office staff:
Goran Radulovi, Chief Resilience Officer
Stana Kravarui Mladenovi
Bojana Maksimovi
Buro Happold Belgrade team:
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ksenija Lalovi, Senior Urban Resilience Consultant

specialized in strategic planning, management and collaboration
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mila Nikoli, Senior Urban Resilience Consultant

specialized in urban development and cultural resilience
Buro Happold London team:
Henry Fletcher, Associate Director

Strategic Cities and Regional Planning, specilized in City and Citizen Engagement
Mehrnaz Ghojeh. Senior Consultant

Strategic Cities and Regional Planning, specialized in DRM & Resilience
Address: Palata Beograd, Masarikova 5, 10th floor, 11000 Belgrade
Email: otporni.beograd@gmail.com
Resilient Belgrade | ii
Content
1. Introduction 2
2. Belgrade, at the seams of time and space 10
2.1 Resilience Timeline

2.2 Belgrade Regional Context
2.3 People and Economy
2.4 Culture, Arts and Sciences
2.5 Infrastructure
2.6 Climate and the Urban Environment
2.7 Governance and Budget Management
2.8 Current Strategies, Plans and Development Frameworks
3. Resilience Diagnosis 65
3.1 Designing an Innovative Engagement Process

3.2 What we are doing
3.3 What we think we are doing
3.4 Primary Shocks and Stresses
3.5 Assets and Risks
100 Resilient Cities | iii

4. Conclusion: Discovery Areas 86
4.1 Discovery Area 1

4.6 Closing Remarks and Next Steps
Resilient Belgrade | iv
INTRODUCTION
1. Introduction
This section describes the process for the
development of the Belgrade City Resilience Strategy
and how the Preliminary Resilience Assessment
forms part of that process.
Belgrade has begun establishing its urban resilience strategy by

forming the Working Group for the Resilience Program for the
City of Belgrade. This Resilience Program aims to develop the
citys capacities and systems to react and adapt to acute
shocks and chronic stresses, but also recover quickly and
effectively after adversities, and function efficiently in good
times.
Resilience is the capacity of individuals, communities,

institutions, businesses and systems within a city to
adapt, grow, and thrive in the face of both shocks -
sudden, traumatic events like earthquakes and floods
- and more long-term, chronic stresses, like poverty
and housing shortages. City resilience is about making
a city better, in both good times and bad, for the
benefit of all its citizens, particularly the poor and
vulnerable.
Definition by 100 Resilient Cities
Urban Resilience
Urban Resilience is a holistic concept in which the physical
and organisational attributes of a city are considered in
their entirety, and in which the capacity of the city to
manage stresses is as important as its capacity to
withstand shocks. As part of its efforts to galvanise an
Urban Resilience Movement, the Rockefeller Foundation
has developed a common City Resilience Framework (CRF)
through which all member cities will develop their strategy.
Resilience has emerged as an overarching concept within

urban planning in response to climate changes, increasingly
frequent natural disasters, and the spread of physical, social
and economic challenges faced by cities in the 21st century. It
has helped to bridge the gap between disaster risk reduction
Resilient Belgrade | 2
and climate change adaptation. It moves away from traditional
disaster risk management, which is founded on risk
assessments that relate to specific hazards. Instead, it accepts
the possibility that a wide range of disruptive events both
stresses and shocks may occur but are not necessarily
predictable. Resilience focuses on enhancing the performance
of a system in the face of multiple hazards, rather than
preventing or mitigating the loss of assets due to specific events
(100RC, 2015).
The City Resilience Framework (Arup, 2014) is developed as a
common framework for all cities to understand their key
resilience challenges, the gaps in capacity which they may
wish to address, and the opportunities to build on existing
actions and enhance their resilience in key areas. It provides a
lens to understand the complexity of cities and the drivers that
contribute to their resilience. Looking at these drivers can help
cities to assess the extent of their resilience, to identify critical
areas of weakness, and to identify actions and programs to
improve the citys resilience (100RC, 2015):
Health and well-being: The health and well-being of all
who live and work in the city;
Economy and society: The social and financial systems
that enable the urban population to live peacefully and act
collectively;
Infrastructure and environment: The way manmade and
natural infrastructure provide critical services and protect
citizens, and
Leadership and strategy: Effective leadership, empowered
and engaged stakeholders and integrated planning.
100 Resilient Cities | 3

Figure 1: City Resilience Framework - The Rockefeller Foundation | Arup (Arup, 2014)
Figure 2: Qualities of resilient systems
100 Resilient Cities
Belgrade plays an important role in the 100RC network of
cities because it is the only city in the Western Balkans We began working with our first group of
32 cities in December of 2013. In 2014,
selected to join the network and, in the wider geographic we received 330 applications from 94
context, one of a very small number of cities in Eastern countries for our second cohort, and we
and Central Europe. announced the 35 cities of Round 2 in
December. The third 100 Resilient Cities
Challenge closed in November of 2015
and we announced our final group of
Belgrade is the first city in Central and Eastern Europe to cities in May 2016. Members of the 100
develop its Strategy of Urban Resilience within the 100 Resilient Cities team and a panel of
expert judges reviewed over 1,000
Resilient Cities Program. The program, for which more than
applications from prospective cities. The
1200 cities around the world applied, has been initiated by the judges looked for innovative mayors,
Rockefeller Foundation, and Arup has developed the a recent catalyst for change, a history
of building partnerships, and an
methodology and process. To date, 20 cities, from Rome and
ability to work with a wide range of
Rotterdam to Mexico City, Los Angeles and Sydney, have stakeholders.
already made their strategies and are starting their
www.100resilientcities.org
implementation, building a global network of knowledge and
experiences in this field.
100 Resilient Cities (100RC) is dedicated to helping cities
around the world become more resilient to the physical, social
and economic challenges that are a growing part of the 21st
century. It supports the adoption and incorporation of a view of
resilience that includes not just the shocks, such as
earthquakes, fires, floods, etc., but also the stresses that
Figure 2: 100 Resilient Cities world map

weaken the fabric of a city on a day-to-day or cyclical basis,
such as lasting economic recession, shortage of water,
environmental degradation, high crime rate or limited access to
education. By addressing both its shocks and stresses, a city
becomes more able to respond to adverse events, and is
overall better able to deliver basic functions in both good times
and bad, to all populations.
Cities in the 100RC network are provided with the resources
necessary to develop resilience along four main axes (100RC,
2015):
Financial and logistical guidance for establishing an
innovative new position in city government: a Chief
Resilience Officer and a Resilience Office that will lead the
citys resilience efforts;
Expert support for development of a robust resilience
strategy;
Access to solutions, service providers, and partners
from the private, public and non-governmental organization
(NGO) sectors that can help them develop and implement
their resilience strategies;
Membership in a global network of member cities they
can learn from and help each other, facilitating the building
of a global practice of resilience among governments,
NGOs, the private sector, and individual citizens.
Purpose and Objectives

The development of a City Resilience Strategy for Belgrade
represents a strong opportunity to approach the
development of the city in a new way one that that is built
for the first time on inclusive citizen consultation and wider
city administration.
The main basis for Belgrade entering the 100 RC program were
the catastrophic floods in 2014, in combination with a wider
context of prolonged economic, social and political instability,
and an emerging migrant crisis. But our aims actually extend
further. We wanted to check and measure ourselves, to be a
part of the network and to learn from it. We wanted the citizens
to join this work and be inspired by it. We wanted to show the
complexities of this city, to be reminded of its finer qualities, to
highlight its great potential to overcome the hindrances, and to
invite a broader participation in the city-making process. This is
the first time in our history that a strategy is developed not just
by experts, but as a common action of the city and the citizens.
The Republic Geodetic Authority, through
their "Establishment of a national spatial
data infrastructure and the Center for
Remote Sensing of the Republic of Serbia -
based on IGIS system" project, provided
satellite data on the extent of floods in the
Republic of Serbia. This can be used for
planning the reparation of flood damage.
http://www.rgz.gov.rs.
Figure 3: Flooding extent of the 2014 Floods, Belgrade.
Resilience Strategy Development

Process
The development of the Resilience Strategy has two phases,
of which this is the first; a concise assessment of the current
state of development across natural, social and built
environments with a forward-looking outlook. The second
stage will lead to the development of innovative and
complete programs for implementation.
The Resilience Strategy serves as a dynamic roadmap to build

resilience in the city: It articulates the citys priorities for building
resilience through specific initiatives for immediate
implementation as well as the citys longer-term future, and it
triggers action, investment and support within city government
and from outside groups. The process of developing the
Resilience Strategy consists of three phases:
Phase 1 serves to gather, analyze and understand the

resilience issues in Belgrade as well as to establish
knowledge and trust network with citizens. The result of this
phase is this Preliminary Resilience Assessment (PRA);
Phase 2 is intended to formulate the city resilience

strategy, including the fields of opportunity and initiatives
based on Discovery Areas determined in the Phase 1,
engaging further all stakeholders in dialog and co-creation;

Phase 3 is envisioned as the implementation phase for
practicing and building resilience through the city resilience
strategy, action plan and network.
Figure 4: Resilience Strategy Development Process [2]
PRA Intentions
The Preliminary Resilience Assessment is the first
threshold towards a collaborative and effective strategy to
improve resilience of Belgrade.
This document:
Describes the work completed to date to build a baseline of

facts and deepen our understanding of key resilience
challenges, approaches and opportunities in Belgrade now
and into the future;
Outlines identified Discovery Areas - thematic areas around
which deeper analysis and broader engagement should be
undertaken. The Discovery Areas presented in this
document have been informed by consultation with leaders
in the government, academic, business, infrastructure,
emergency management, environment, culture, community
and health sectors;
Defines the next steps that will be undertaken to develop a
final Belgrade Resilience Strategy.
PRA Structure
The PRA has three main sections, reporting first on the
unique city context, secondly upon the resilience
diagnostic process and thirdly upon the proposed areas for
further discovery at the outset of Phase 2.
This report follows the 100 RC methodology and summarizes

the key findings from each stage of the PRA process:
A city profile with contextual information to determine the
Citys powers to take action on building resilience.
An analysis of actions and plans currently underway in
Belgrade. The analysis helped to identify efforts by the City
government structures, academia, civil society groups and
other partners.
A gathering of perceptions of Belgrades strengths and
weaknesses from a broad range of stakeholders and
citizens during a series of engagement activities.
A preliminary asset scan, to identify the significant assets
that exist in Belgrade, which contribute to the Citys
physical, economic and social resilience.
A review of shocks and stresses, to identify the most
significant shocks and stresses that affect Belgrade today,
or which are anticipated to affect Belgrade in the future. By
aggregating shocks and stresses with assets, it was
possible to identify the scale of possible consequences that
could occur in relation to the Citys drivers for resilience.
Formulation of Discovery Areas through integrated analysis
of gathered deliverables.
Conclusions and next steps to be undertaken toward
Belgrade Resilience Strategy formulation.

BELGRADE,
AT THE
SEAMS OF
TIME AND
SPACE
2. Belgrade, at the seams
of time and space
This section presents some of the key background
information about the city that is pertinent to the
development of the City Resilience Strategy the
unique city context
Belgrade is the capital of Serbia and the former capital of

Yugoslavia. It is located at the confluence of the Sava and
Danube, and at the junction of the Pannonian Plain and Balkan
Peninsula, between Central Europe and the Mediterranean.
This unique situation, at the intersection of different cultures
and empires, has provided the area with a turbulent history,
marked by wars, conquests, destruction and rebuilding. It has
also defined the role and identity of the city, its urban fabric,
architecture, public spaces, and engrained an ethic of survival
into the citys everyday life.
Evaluating the resilience of a city, and planning for its future
requires answering many questions related to both the citys
past and present. How did Belgrade cope with crucial moments
and difficult times through history? Did we manage to adapt to
the situation and how? Have we been able to turn adverse
situations to our advantage and in what way? How did this
shape us? Where have we erred? What did we know to do
well? What have we learned? And where are we today? How
can we present ourselves as a city? What makes us unique?
What sets us apart from the rest? How could Belgrade thrive
again?
Figure 1: Resilient Belgrade; Ivan Metrovis statue of Victor on Kalemegdan is a

symbol of Belgrade.
2.1 Resilience Timeline
History of Belgrades resilience: a history of
discontinuities, conquests and upheavals
The settlement that is modern-day Belgrade has existed for

over 9,000 years. Its location at the intersection of Sava and
Danube rivers has resulted in a tumultuous history
throughout which the city has demonstrated extraordinary
resilience.
Figure 2: Figurines of deities found in Vina, 5000 BC
In the hospitable basin of the Danube, Sava, Tami and Tisa,

below the mines of Avala and Rudnik, and close to significant
waterways and land routes, the first Neolithic settlements of
Starevo and Vina were established 7,000 years ago on the
territory of Belgrade. Prehistoric societies evolved here in
favorable conditions, with a moderate continental climate and
seismic stability. The Vina culture in particular has been
recognised for its sophisticated prehistoric farming techniques
and early forms of writing.
However, Belgrades location has also provided the area with a
long history of cultural and military-political upheaval. The citys
position, at the intersection of roads to Constantinople,
Thessaloniki, Vienna and Budapest, has given it a strategic
location, between Eastern and Western European strongholds.
Armies and tribes of Celts, Romans, Huns, Sarmatians,
Ostrogoths, Gepids, Avars, Slavs, Byzantines, Bulgarians and
Hungarians have all passed through, built and destroyed the
city.

In 1284, Belgrade came under Serbian rule for the first time,
and in 1403, under Despot Stefan Lazarevi, it became the
capital and a prosperous city. Suleiman the Magnificent
conquered Belgrade in 1521, placing it under Ottoman rule.
During this period, it become one of the most lavish cities in
Europe.
Figure 3: The battle for Belgrade in 1717.
Control of the Serbian peninsula changed hands several times

between the Turks and Austrians between the 16th and 19th
centuries, until Serbia eventually was declared independent in
1878. Belgrade has persisted as the capital city, despite the
changing names, governance, size, status and significance of
its surrounding area. Over the past two and a half centuries,
Serbia has changed names 13 times; from the seat of Belgrade
Paaluk of the Ottoman Empire, through to the capital of the
Principality and then Kingdom of Serbia, then as Belgrade
became more Europeanized, it grew into the political, cultural,
and economic center of the United State, Princedom and
Kingdom of the Slovenes, Croats and Serbs. The new country
then changed in size, broadened its horizons and once again
changed its name, to the Kingdom of Yugoslavia.
Chronology of shocks and stresses in modern history
of Belgrade
1804-13. First Serbian uprising
1804. Revolt against the Dahijas
1806. Karadjordje liberated Belgrade town and Belgrade once
again became the capital of Serbia
1813. Karadjordje liberated Belgrade town and Belgrade once
again became the capital of Serbia
1814. Hadzi Prodans revolt
1815. Milos Obrenovic started the Second Serbian
uprising
1830. Sultans edict on the autonomy of Serbia
1841. Belgrade became the capital of the Principality of
Serbia during the first rule of Mihailo Obrenovic
1862. Conflict at Cukur fountain and bombing of Belgrade
town from the fortress held by Turks; international
decision to leave the city
1867. urks leaving town
1876. Serbian-Turkish war
1878. The independence of Serbia recognized at the Berlin
Congress
1882. Serbia became kingdom, and Belgrade its capital
1903. The May overthrow - change of dynasty: after the
assassination of King Aleksandar Obrenovic, King
Petar I Karadjordjevic came to the throne
1912-13- Balkan wars
1914-18. First World War
1914. The Austrians bombed and conquered Belgrade,
the Serbs liberated it the same year
1918. 29.10.-01.12. the State of Slovenes, Croats and
Serbs
On December 1, 1918 declared the Kingdom of Serbs,
Croats and Slovenes
Belgrade became the center of a new, large state and
its cultural, social and political life
1921. The Constitution of 28 June, 1921 (Vidovdan
Constitution) called the new state Kingdom of Serbs,
Croats and Slovenes
1929. On October 3, passed the Law on name and division of
the Kingdom into administrative areas. The Kingdom of
Serbs, Croats and Slovenes became the Kingdom of
Yugoslavia
1934 Demolition of the medieval town rnova, built on
Roman foundations
1937. May 24-25, the biggest storm followed by the fist-sized
hail, demolished more than 60 % houses
1941-45. Second World War:
a double revolution - the struggle against the occupiers
and class oppression to change the social order.
During the war, Belgrade lost about 50,000 people and
suffered heavy destruction.
1941. Bombing on 6 and 7 April (Luftwaffe).
Formed concentration camps Sajmiste and Baniica
1944. Allied bombing of Belgrade on 16 and 17 April
The battle for the liberation of Belgrade 20 October
1945. The change of socio-political system. Belgrade - the Agitprop
capital of: period
- the Democratic Federal Yugoslavia, (1945-1953)
- From 29 November, 1945 the Federal Peoples Strategy of
Republic of Yugoslavia ideologisatio
1945-54. Renovation and construction n/indoctrinati
1946. On September 9, measured temperature 41,8 degrees on
1948. The conflict with the Cominform and changes of course;
political purges
1950. Hot summer?
1953-60. Period of
construction
of
new
institutions
1961. Due to the murder of Patris Lumumba (January 1961) Period of
violent demonstrations with multiple injured were opening up to
held. On that occasion the Belgian Embassy was the world
invaded. (1960-1974)
1962. On Febryary 3, measured 80 centimeters of snow

1963. 1963 Yugoslav Constitution, known as the "charter of Internationali
self-government" because the self-management zation
model was applied in all spheres and at all levels of strategy
social life
Changed the name of the state in the Socialist Federal
Republic of Yugoslavia and it is defined as a federal
state of voluntarily united and equal peoples and a
socialist democratic community based on the power of
the working peoples and self-management. The
territory of Yugoslavia is "unique and consists of the
territories of the socialist republics."
1966. Brioni Plenum
Basically initiated the process of changing the
relationship between federal state and republics that
led to a radical change of the federation. Yugoslavia
was built as a "federation of balance." Monolithic
social and political life was replaced by "self-managed
federalism
1968. Student protests in Belgrade
1971. MASPOK (Croatian Spring) and liberalization
Competition for the Belgrade Opera at Staro sajmiste
1972. March-May, the last epidemic of smallpox (variola vera)
in Europe.
1974. The new Constitution, which "formed six states that had period of self-
all the prerogatives of power. Then we did not have a governing
single communist party but six parties that had formed communities
great communist party. Even then de facto we had a of interest
confederation, which was one of the attempts to find a Culture
modus vivendi for the country. Republics got the right (1974-1985)
to raise loans by themselves, creating additional
conditions for the occurrence of the economic crisis.
1979. Edvard Kardelj died
1979. Introduced system of odd-even rationing
1980. The death of Tito a symbol of the beginning of the end
1981. On January 10, the temperature in Belgrade was 26,2
degrees below zero. Irredentism at Kosovo
Refugees from Kosovo.
1982. Long-term programme of economic stabilization
The severe economic crisis, the devaluation of the dinar
and the ban on the import of many consumer products
led to the social and ethnic problems, especially in
economically less developed areas. Action You have
a house, return an apartment
1983. Vouchers for oil, coffee, detergent.
Absolute minimum water level of the Danube (Zemun):
-8, 29.11.1983.
1986. SANU Memorandum Period of
? Transition from controlled, guided toward free-market liberal
economy > support for small businesses: Karic cultural
Brothers policy
Citizens were selling foreign currency to the National (1981-1992)
Bank, offered loans 1:3 and
Absolute minimum water level of the Sava: -61, the revival of
25.11.1986. nationalism in
1987. Rise to power of Milosevic culture
1988. Occurrence of people and anti-bureaucratic privatization
yoghurt revolution strategy
1989. The loan for the rebirth of Serbia > nti-federal-
state; the forerunner of Jezda and Dafina, promise of
an interest of 16 %
Grants for Serbia, in the amount of one month's salary
and upward
1989. Miners strike in Kosovo
Kucan refused majority voting and the principle of one
man one vote
1989-90 Macroeconomic reforms of Ante Markovic / the IMF
package of measures: more than a thousand
companies went bankrupt
1991. Serbia adopted its own Law on ownership atization of
transformation (Law on Conditions and Procedure for culture
Transforming Social Ownership into Other Forms of
Property - Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia
no.48 / 91), which substantially stopped privatization by
sharpening procedures and eliminating weaknesses in
the regulations.
1991- Deep political, economical, cultural and social crisis:
outflow of capital, brain drain
Freezing old saving accounts
The removal of money from the banks, transfer to
Cyprus and Russia
The Law on the sail of social and public housing
formation of the real estate market
In the first phase of this transitional robbery and
corruption, people became rich overnight, as war
profiteers or as smugglers, and a good deal of them by
direct plundering of the country. Some were killing for
money, others coming to suitcases full of money on
kidnapping, third were engaged in a racket, a lot of
them were "milking" state, with more or less covert
assistance of its apparatus, on financial, semi legal, but
no less ruthless manner
An attempt to correct something through taxes on extra
profit failed. Meanwhile, the Mafia was pretty much
tamed, less racket, kidnapping and murder for money,
but dirty money continued to govern and circulate over
Serbia in huge quantities. Now there is less blood,
violence and dealers on the streets, but corruption
remains in a large wave as a "tsunami", splashes
Serbia and strangles its impoverished citizens.
Lalic Borislav: IT STARTED? Corruption in transition.
Vecernje Novosti 19.01.2006
1991. Rallies, student protests
1991-92. Mobilization > emigration
Secession of Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia
War in Slovenia 1991
War in Croatia 1991-95
1992. Secession of BIH
War in BIH 1992-95
Declared Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (consisting
of Serbia and Montenegro)> does the omission of the
word "socialist" in the name imply hereby the change in
the socio-political system ???
1991-93. Bank under Ponzi pyramid principle robbed people,
quasi-state banks Dafiment (Dafina Milanovic) and
Jugoskandik (Jezdimir Vasiljevic)
"In the cellars of the National Bank of Serbia were
detected records. Through the power of the original
document testifying that the former Serbian president
Slobodan Milosevic pulled the strings of huge fraud with
astronomical interest on savings to use money from
family safes necessary to finance his rule. "Vreme
According to the findings of the Commission of the
National Bank of Serbia, this "project" took from the
citizens of Serbia more than 450 million German marks.
1992-96. UN sanctions - economic blockade were imposed on
30 May 1992 by the international community for the
participation of Serbia and Montenegro in the war in
Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to
comprehensiveness and sharpness, with the exception
of military intervention, these were the toughest
sanctions that the UN had ever undertaken against a
country. Under the impact of international sanctions,
there was a major economic crisis in the country and
the emergence of hyperinflation, which recorded the
issue of banknotes with the largest denomination (500
billion dinars) ever in the world. They were temporarily
abolished after the signing of the Dayton Agreement on
22 November, 1995 and formally 2 October, 1996. They
only strengthened the rule of Milosevic.
Primaru emission of money-inflation
1993. The highest hyperinflation in the history brought
many citizens on the edge of survival.
Queues for bread and milk, a wave of suicides
Waves of refugees from former republics
Crime and insecurity, black economy, smuggling of oil
and cigarettes
Economic crime: off-shore companies
The collapse of all systems: health, education, culture,
morality
Reduced public transport
Incentives to privatization> bankruptcies and lay-
offs
Sale of apartments

Stoppage of urban control: Illegal construction,
expansion of kiosks, the attack on public space and
public land
1994. Price stabilization
1995. Rampage of fans
1996-97. Everyday civic and student protests against the
failure to recognize local election results: closed
universities
1996. Formed KLA (Kosovo Liberation army)
1997. Continuation of the old privatization model whose Beginning of
basic feature is that the privatization is still autonomous a
(decentralized), optional and aimed at the workers transition
shareholding. Incentives through shareholding. model
1997. Again introduced international sanctions due to the of cultural
persecution of ethnic Albanians from Kosovo policy
1999. NATO bombing of three months caused substantial (1997-2001)
damage to the city infrastructure Among the sites
bombed were the buildings of several ministries -
including the Headquarters - the complex of Dobrovic *,
RTS building where 16 employees were killed, several
hospitals, Hotel "Yugoslavia" *, a former building of the
Central Committee SKJ*, TV tower on Avala *, as well
as Chinese Embassy in New Belgrade. Graphite
bombs caused substantial delays in the electricity
supply. The consequences of fear, stress and bombs
with depleted uranium (increase in radiation levels
recorded to Finland) are still present.
* Cultural, architectural and engineering symbols of

progress and modernization of the country
2000. October 5 - mass demonstrations against election
fraud in federal, presidential and local elections held on
24 September, 2000; clashes with the police; federal
parliament, RTS building
2001. The end of economic blockade
2001-09. Privatization> modified model of classical sales Extended
(amendments to the Law on Ownership transition
Transformation)> a highly corrupt, "feudal socialism" perios
(Privatization Agency, Share Fund, the Commission for (20012005)
Securities, Ministry of Finance)
> Layoffs, unemployment
2002. Adopted the Constitutional Charter of the State Union
of Serbia and Montenegro
2003. March, 12, assassination of the Serbian Prime
Minister Zoran Djindjic.
Hot summer, extreme drought. Already on 30 April
recorded a temperature of 30 degrees Celsius, and
the warm days lasted until September
June 1, the National Museum is closed for immediate
reconstruction, and still closed
2006. Living of Montenegro from the union after the again-party
referendum on independence system
Belgrade the capital of the independent Republic of
Serbia; the new Constitution.
Absolute maximum water level of the Sava (Belgrade):
738, and the Danube (Zemun) 783 on 16 April , 2006
2007. Museum of Contemporary Art is closed due to
adaptation and still closed.
The warmest year. In 24 July in Belgrade were
measured 43.6 degrees
2012. Snow and frost: 40 injured and one killed in Belgrade in
one day
Great drought halved yields.
The storm accompanied by torrential rain
2014. Disastrous floods
2015. Demolition of the building of the German Embassy in
Knez Milos St. 74-76 - cultural property under
preliminary protection.
Refugees from Syria and others
2016. Hail storm caused grate damage
2017. Ice on rivers
2017. Almost daily announcements of closing, selling or
renting cultural institutions: Kolarac Hall, Serbian
pavilion in Venice, Student Cultural Centre
THE AGE OF HIGH
PROSPERITY
OF MAYOR PEI
Belgradians hold great respect for their

mayors. In some cases, they
Figure 4: Belgrade Library destroyed in the 1941 bombing characterize an era, and are
remembered more than Prime Ministers.
During his tenure as President of
Following World War II, the country become the Democratic Belgrade City Assembly, Major Pei
Federal Yugoslavia in 1945, then the Federal Republic of oversaw the following major projects:
- The Museum of Contemporary Art
Yugoslavia, and finally in 1961 the Socialist Federal Republic of was built in 1965;
Yugoslavia. As the capital of Titos Federal Republic of - The Avala Tower was opened in
1965;
Yugoslavia, which famously said "No" to the Soviet Union in
- The Hotel Yugoslavia was officially
1948, Belgrade experienced a golden age of progress and opened in 1969;
- In 1970, the construction of the
cosmopolitanism. It became a symbol of independent socialism, highway section Zagreb-Belgrade-
and the seat of the fourth largest military force in Europe, and Nit, Beanijska kosa to
Autokomanda, and the Mostar and
the capital of the Non-Aligned Movement sandwiched between Autokomanda loops and the Gazela
Bridge were constructed.
the two opposing blocks of the Cold War period. At this time, it
- The construction of the Western Gate
was a city with ambitions and visions, and with the will and of Belgrade (Genex Tower) also
started;
power to achieve them, under the leadership of Mayor Pei. - In December 1970, the Terazije
Tunnel was opened, as well as the
underground pedestrian passes
under the Terazije Square
- The Institute for Cardiovascular
Diseases Dedinje was built in 1973;
- In 1974 was the Belgrade Palace
(Beograanka), was completed. At
the time, it was the highest building
in the Balkans, designed by architect
Branko Pei;
- In 1970
- In 1973 the construction of the
Eastern Gate of Belgrade (the
skyscrapers Rudo) started;
- 81.000 flats were built in Belgrade,
including the blocks 45 and 70 in
New Belgrade;
- The sports centers in all city
municipalities were constructed,
including the Pioneer Hall (1973),
Figure 5: New Belgrade (Novi Beograd): a new town for a new man Pinki in Zemun (1974), Sport Hall in
New Belgrade, sport centers
The years of welfare, growth and prosperity ended with the umice, Olimp, Banjica, 25.
maj (1973) and Vraar, etc;
deep economic and political crisis of the 1980s, and ultimately - The embankments and promenades
shattered Yugoslavia. The deaths of Edvard Kardelj and Josip along the Danube and Sava were
built;
Broz Tito announced the beginning of the end. The odd-even - The development of Ada Ciganlija
system, rationing, and the devaluation of the dinar became part into city beach started: artificial lake,
administrative building and the first
of a long-term program of economic stabilization to initiate the sport facilities;
- The plans were initiated for
transition from a state-controlled economy towards a free- waterfront development, and the
construction of the metro and
100 Resilient Cities | 17 Belgrade railway junction - which
have not been realized until recently.
market economy. With the burden of international debts,
inflation, and increasing scarcity of everyday goods, the State
became critically unstable. This sharpened social and ethnic
problems, which culminated in the Kosovan separatist
movement and conflicts, creating the first wave of refugees
seeking shelter in Belgrade.
Figure 6: Coupons for rationed goods; queues for oil, coffee, detergent.
During this time, Belgrade did not give up on its ambitions. In

1986, it bid to host the 1992 Olympic Games as an incentive to
build new infrastructure, boost the economy and restore the
community spirit. Looking back, we can only guess how
different the city would be if we won the bid and the projects
planned at the time were realized such as, the metro (1968),
Opera (1971), visionary Culture Midpoint Third Millennium
(1979-86), High-speed railroads of Serbia (1992), Europolis /
Belgrade on the Sava 2000 (1995). Belgrade would be a very
different place if the Olympics had come to the city - the 1990s
marked the rise of the economy and urban culture in Barcelona,
but their downfall in Belgrade.
Figure 7: GDP growth and fall in Yugoslavia
In 1991, a profound economic, political cultural crisis, which
continues 25 years later, officially begins. The 1990s are
characterized by of the breakup of Yugoslavia, poverty,
international economic sanctions, the highest rate of
hyperinflation in recorded history, queues for bread, visas and
savings, protests, nationalism, refugees, a brain drain, violence,
crime, populism, bombing, turbo-folk and turbo-architecture.
The international media paint Belgrade as the evil center of
balkanization, a symbol of disintegration between ethnic
communities. It becomes the capital of the "fragmented"
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, of the State Union of Serbia
and Montenegro, and finally, in 2006, of the Republic of Serbia.
The 1990s
Belgrades recent history is characterised by social unrest

and a sharp decline in prosperity resulting from the multiple
conflicts associated with the break-up of Yugoslavia (1991
2006).
9th March 1991. Citizens, tanks and water cannons in the streets
Queue for bread

The Boulevard of stalls and kiosks Gasoline per bottle
Successive wars and migrations persistently transformed the structure of the city through population changes and uncontrolled
urbanization.
The political and social order as we knew it ceased to exist. The black economy, stale market, under which informal
construction flourished.
The largest informal settlements of Europe grew in Belgrade.
Parastatal banks, pyramidal schemes and national loans took the savings away. Paramilitary formations. The Criminal that Changed
Serbia / See You in the Obituary (Film, 1994)
Hooligans raging. Student protests in 1996-97 the peaceful walks.
NATO bombing in 1999. Bombs with depleted uranium were used.
5th October 2000

The 2010s
In spite of a period of relative stability, Belgrades

challenges remain significant and some of its chronic
stresses are risk precipitating new crises or shocks.
Pension three times smaller than the consumer basket, Old men killed by the dumpster top
Culture shut down (2002-now),
floods (2012, 2014), freezing (1941-42, 2016-17),
and regular heatwaves. New wave of migrants. Still at the crossroad, a gate to a better life.
Resilience without a strategy
By developing a holistic City Resilience Strategy, Belgrade
can turn its many assets into opportunities, and can build
capacity to harness the inherent and much-tested
resilience of its people.
With repeated changes in territorial borders, we now find
ourselves in a country seven times smaller than in recent
history. The socio-economic system has changed, too: from the
atypical socialist system, we underwent an atypical transition to
extreme liberalization. Instead of becoming the corporate center
of Central and Southeastern Europe in the post-Cold War geo-
political transition, Belgrade was isolated by international
economic sanctions, and its economy was marked by
privatization, bankruptcies and selling-off of public-owned
assets. The Illegal construction trend continues to burden the
city, overstretching its ageing infrastructure and damaging its
natural resources.
The political shift of the 1990s also had grave social
consequences. General poverty, high unemployment and
political conflicts led to mass emigration, and a brain drain
across Serbia. The everyday stress, worry, poor diet and
unhealthy lifestyles experienced during the past 25 years has
left its mark on Belgradians physical and mental health. This
has led to new epidemics of high blood pressure, depression,
geriatric traumas, and the highest rates of cancer mortality in
European, which is stretching the public healthcare resources
to breaking point.
Not all is lost however. The city is still held together by its urban
focal points: two historic and a modern one, as well as the
natural center that brings them together: the Heron and Great
War Islands, and coasts at the confluence of the Sava and
Danube rivers. These rivers still give shape to the metropolis,
and the parks and forests surrounding Belgrade contain the
citys growth. The floods have convinced us that we still have
the solidarity and capacity to come together against shocks.
However, the uncoordinated response for the floods took its toll
on the city. This is why a city resilience strategy is needed now
more than ever.

2.2 Belgrade Regional
Context
Today, Belgrade is both the capital of the Republic Serbia,
and one of its major regional authorities. Following the BELGRADES REGIONAL
POSITIONS
break-up of Yugoslavia, Belgrade inherited significantly
oversized public institutions and resources, which are - Metropolitan area MEGA4
proving to be both a benefit and a burden to the city today. - Region of Republic of Serbia NUTS 2
- Capital City of Republic of Serbia (2006,
Belgrade has special administrative status within the Republic Constitution of RS)
- Capital City of former Serbia and
of Serbia: it is both the countrys capital city and a significant Montenegro Federation (2003) /
regional authority as well. Although both cover the same Federative Republic Yugoslavia (1992)
- Capital City of former Socialist Federal
territory, the City of Belgrade, and the Belgrade Region have Republic of Yugoslavia (1963) / Federal
People's Republic of Yugoslavia (1945) /
different functions, primarily regarding their roles in Democratic Republic Yugoslavia (1945)
development projects, and implementing EU regional policies - Capital City of former Kingdom of
Yugoslavia (1929) / Kingdom of Serbs,
(RS, 2010): Croats and Slovenes (1918) / State of
Serbs, Croats and Slovenes (1918)
The Belgrade Region is responsible for overseeing the - Capital City of former Kingdom of Serbia
development of regional projects and interregional (1882)
cooperation across Serbia and Europe,

The City of Belgrade as a local government, deals with the
matters of local character and the internal relations between
Belgrades 17 municipalities and settlements.
The current regional status of Belgrade has been shaped by the
various territorial transformations that occurred in the last
century. For almost 100 years, Belgrade was the capital of
Yugoslavia (a union of Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and
Hercegovina, Slovenia, Macedonia, and Montenegro), a much
larger state territory than today, so the city government was
developed as a main central government fit to oversee the
national administration of six republics. Consequently, the City
of Belgrade had developed significant public resources and
institutional capacity. After the break-up of Yugoslavia, these
assets come to be oversized for the needs of the Republic of
Serbia, becoming both a strength and a burden to the transition
process. According to the Republic of Serbia Law on Spatial
Development (2010), Belgrade is now considered to be a
territory of significant and real prospects for further
development, with the special responsibility for the
development of the Republic of Serbia.
BELGRADE IN FIGURES
Area323.496 ha
Islands541 ha
Aquitorium.2.225 ha
Municipalities..17
Settlements...157
Local communities...275
Average household 2.7
Population size1.793.000
Population projections (2041):
Zero net migration1.473.014
Current trajectory..1.982.591
Figure 8. Regional transport connections
The spatial development of the City of Belgrade is directed

towards strengthening its position from MEGA4 level of the
capitals of Europe to level MEGA3. This requires taking action
to mitigate a series of weaknesses hindering the city:
unmanaged riverbanks, illegal construction, uncoordinated
public services, a lack of environmental awareness, poor waste
disposal systems, weaknesses in the transport system, poor
building maintenance, outdated infrastructure and the weak
position of the suburban municipalities in Obrenovac,
Lazarevac, Mladenovac, Surin, Grocka, Sopot and Barajevo,
which do not have the status of local self-governments.
An important element within both Belgrades development and
Serbias territorial cohesion is the strategic partnership between
Belgrade and the City of Novi Sad. These are the two largest
urban centers in Serbia, and along with the municipalities
between and around them, are considered as the strong
economic core of the country, and the cooperation gate with
Europe and the wider world.
The Republic of Serbia Law on Spatial Development of
Belgrade specifies that the city should pay special attention to
developing its cultural heritage, in a sustainable way. The city is

a tourist center of international importance, which symbolizes
Serbias wider national identity. Within Belgrade, several zones
have been designated as cultural landscapes of national
importance, including Kosmaj Mountain, Belgrade fortress,
Topider Park, the coastal area of the Danube with prehistoric
heritage sites (such as Vina), and parts of the urban center,
amongst others.
2.3 People and economy
Over half of Serbias workforce are employed in Belgrade.
Following the economic crisis in the early 2000s, rural
migrants moved to the capital in search of work. However,
the citys economy is still in transition with the majority of
people employed either in low-paid public sector jobs, or
low-skilled retail and hospitality jobs. This leads to a
number of challenges such as an acknowledged brain-
drain and aging population.
Serbias current social context can be still be characterized as
transitional, even if the transition from a socialist to a capitalist
system began over 20 years ago in the 1990s.
The dramatic consequences of the political decisions taken
during the first phase of transition led Serbia into the center of
the Yugoslav Wars and a position of international isolation. This
subsequently launched a move towards greater social
awareness of international human rights and democratic values.
Urban and spatial development trends during this period have
had negative connotations:
- illegal construction in the city grew rapidly, reducing the
quality and scope of public spaces and services;
- the economic basis of society underwent a post-socialist
transformation, restructuring employment sectors and
centers across the city;
- there was a general lack of social infrastructure
development in rural areas, accelerating migration of people
into the urban centers and depopulation of rural areas. This
created uneven spatial development across the country,
with increasing centralization of socio-political power in
Serbias major cities (RS, 2010).

Demographic structural changes
One of the Belgrades biggest demographic challenges is its
AGEING POPULATION
ageing population. The average age of the population is about
43 years old, and 24% of the population is aged over 60 (the - Average population age is 43 years
EU average is 18%). Only 14% of the population is aged under - Ratio between elderly > 65 and
children < 15 is 2:1
15. Belgrades population is therefore ageing significantly. This - City office to support health of the
elderly (2014) / Office for the elderly
negative population growth started in the early 1990s. Over the and vulnerable groups (2008)
following three decades, the over 65 age group has increased - 24 private gerontology centers
concentrated mostly in inner city (see
both in actual size and in proportion of the total population. the distribution map below), monthly
fee 350-750 Euro
- 4 public gerontology centers, monthly
fee 200-300 Euro
Figure 9: Gerontology centers in Belgrade
In Serbia, the care for the elderly has traditionally been the duty
of the family. However, the 2006 National Strategy on Ageing
was implemented to provide comprehensive care for the
elderly, and ensure a more diginified life for older citizens. That
said, improved care for the elderly, at both the individual and
state level, relies on an improvement in Serbias economic
situation (RS, 2006).
Over the past 10 years, the City of Belgrade has implemented
several social programs designed to support elderly
populations, including the City Office support for elderly health
(2004), home care sponsorship programs and day centers.
After the 2004 Strategy was adopted, around 24 privately
owned gerontology centers were opened. However, monthly
fees (ranging between 350-750 Euros) exceed the average
Belgrade household income (450 Euro) or average pension rate
(200 Euro), making them unaffordable for many. There are only
four (overcrowded) public gerontology centers with monthly
fees between 200- 300 Euros.
Nevertheless, the City of Belgrade, in comparison with other
2000-2015:
regions of Serbia, is the only region in the country in which has
Negative natural increase & massive
experienced an increase in population in the last five years immigration to Belgrade
(RZS, 2016). This population growth is caused by migration (Source: Belgrade in figures 2016, City of
Belgrade Secretariat for Administration,
rather than a natural increasing birth rate. Sector for statistics)
There have been two significant waves of immigration into

Belgrade (ZIS, 2016):
IN & OUT OF BELGRADE
The early 1990s - more than half million refugees from the
- BG IN 3% per year - immigration /
former Yugoslav republics sought shelter in Serbia, with 26% rest of Serbia approx. 20-25.000 per
year, estimation is at least doubled
of them (approx. 150.000 people) moving to Belgrade. During number since many of them are still
this period, One in 10 people in Belgrade was a refugee, with registered as residents elsewhere.
- BG OUT 2% per year - brain drain
a concentration in Zemun. (200.000 since 1991)
- Young people in Serbia, expressed
Following the democratic elections of 2000, peaking in lower levels of overall life
satisfaction (EQLS 2012) - the
the period 2005-2010, this trend was reinforced by the average score for Serbia is 7.07, while
economic crisis caused by NATO bombings of Yugoslavia the European average is 7.26.
- This trend is predicted to rise
and international sanctions toward the Serbian regime. Over significantly.
the past decade, people from all over the Serbia came to
Belgrade in search of employment. Rural settlements in
Belgrade, in close proximity to the citys business districts
have recorded a significant increase in population. These
areas are now beginning to host refugees from Syria and
other countries. This continues to influence demographic BELGRADES WORKING
trends and local communities. POPULATION
The City of Belgrade employs 53% of the

working population of Serbia.
The wider Belgrade region is the only

region in which the majority of the
working age population is female (ZIS,
2016).
Figure 10: Demographic change within Belgrades population (ZIS, 2016)

Economy a transitioning city
In addition to the overall migration trends, it is important to note
BELGRADE ECONOMY
the emigration of highly educated populations out of Belgrade, in figures
the so-called "brain drain", (although there is no official
monitoring of the phenomenon). The City of Belgrade has the - registered employees..670.296
highest share of higher educated people in Serbia (almost 20%, - active population 44%
- net average salaries and wages .
in Serbia 11%; 50% of all students in Serbia study in Belgrade). 450 Euro
The city is therefore most vulnerable to this trend. Sectorial division of the economy:
- primary industry ..2%
The causes behind the brain drain seem to be deep-rooted. - secondary sector ..21%
According to the Study of Youth 2015 (Tomanovi & Stanojevi, - tertiary sector 36%
- quaternary sector .41%
2015), the majority of young people aged between15-29 are
- SME 99%.....17% GVA
inactive (38% of youth not in education are unemployed). The - LE 1%...47% GVA
rate of youth unemployment (15-24 years old) is very high, at - Agricultural land area.152.787 ha
47.1%. This places Serbia alongside Spain, Greece, Croatia

and Italy into the group of European countries where almost
every second young person is unemployed (EUROSTAT,
2015). The studys analysis of financial (non) independence of
youth in Serbia indicates that 66% of young people are
supported by their parents or partners, and only 33% of young
people are fully financially independent. Therefore, it was
unexpected when 35% of young people in Serbia expressed
optimism when assessing the future (Eurofound, 2013).
Approximately 30% of the unemployed population sought work
for the first time in 2011 as privatization brought new
employment opportunities. The unemployment rate then
increased from 17.2% in 2014 to 18.8% in 2015 (yet this is still
a better performance than other regions of Serbia, where
unemployment rate was between 23% and 27% (RZS, 2016)).
The economically active population of the City of Belgrade
accounts for about 44% of the total population. The age
dependency ratio of 43.7% indicates that almost half the
population of the City of Belgrade depends on the economically
active population.
BELGRADE ECONOMIC PROFILE
Agriculture
In the last ten years the production and processing of
organic products is becoming more popular and
economically important. According to the Ministry of Science
and Environmental Protection, 651,000 ha or 75% of the
farmland studied was suitable for organic production that
is, they were free from heavy metals, pesticides, mineral
residues fertilizers and acidification.
Industry
Belgrade is Serbias largest industrial center with a very
diverse industrial structure, and in the process of
modernization. Belgrades role in gas and electricity
production, and manufacturing is particularly important.
Industry uses about 30% of the total of office space in
Belgrade.
Belgrades industries can be characterized as diverse and

export orientated, but working with outdated technologies
and work processes, and low productivity or energy
efficiency. Many industrial activities have a negative impact
on the environment.
Retail
Total retail space per capita is 1.7 m2. This is distributed
unevenly across the city, concentratating in the city center.
Only 9% of the trade area of the city is in the suburban
municipalities. Central Belgrade municipalities have about
32% of commercial space, which leads to the decrease of
its importance as a traditional trade center (10% currently
out of use).
Tourism
About a third of tourists in Serbia stayed in Belgrade. The
number of foreign tourists has been increasing since 2000.
A large percentage of tourist facilities are dilapidated,
sometimes unacceptable by international standards. Most
hotels fall into the three or four categories.
Regional Spatial Plan of Belgrade 2009

The number of enterprises in Belgrade has increased by 58%
since 2001, resulting in 436,123 employees employed by
23,711 business entities. 99% of these business entities are
small and medium sized enterprises. Large enterprises
generate almost half the new revenues in Belgrade (47.4%),
with medium enterprises generating 16.6%.
A recent study into poverty across regions indicated that every
11th resident of Belgrade is at risk of poverty (ZIS, 2016).
Compared to Serbias wider economy, Belgrade has a
significantly smaller share of people employed in primary and
secondary sectors, but a much greater proportion of people
employed in the tertiary and quaternary sectors (performance
indicators suggest the manufacturing sector is dominating, food
production is also significant) (PKB, 2014).
Tourism in Belgrade is increasing. Between 2014 and 2015, the
tourism sector experienced a 10% rise in the number of tourists
(Tourism Organization of Belgrade, 2015). However, this may
be explained by the fact that touristic destinations in the
surrounding area are either a) limited in what they can offer or
b) offering different forms of tourism (such as beaches, but at a
much higher cost). Belgrade is remaining competitive as it is still
relatively inexpensive, but popular city destination.
The economic position of Belgrade compared to other
European cities shows a slight downward trend, whilst the
relative position of Serbia in relation to the wider EU has
remained stable at around 37% of GDP of purchasing power of
the EU-28 average. Analysis of regional economic growth in
Serbia shows great disparities. Belgrade creates approximately
40% of Serbias economic growth. In the period 2009-2015,
Belgrades foreign trade increased 33% (exports grew by 63%
and imports by 24%). However, this positive trend of economic
growth in Belgrade was halted in 2014 due to catastrophic
floods hitting the city. 2015 became the only positive financial
year in the citys economy in recent years. The city increased
profits by nearly nine times, while losses increased by 2.2 times
(RZS, 2016).
A small number of local companies mainly in IT compete in
the global market, and a somewhat larger but still small
number of companies in sectors such as banking or telecoms
have been established with foreign capital to serve local and
regional markets. However, less than a quarter of the citys
workforce work in these sectors.
In real estate, some investment is going into the construction of
several hotels and office complexes but on a level that is far
from transformative. Instead, most development that has
occurred has taken place illegally on the citys outskirts.
Investments in real estate dropped significantly in 2009 due to
the impact of the wider economic crisis. In Serbia, and in
Belgrade, there was around a 20% decline of investment in new
fixed assets. If we consider investment into new fixed assets by
sector, the information and communication sector recorded the
largest share in 2014 (23%), then electricity, gas and water
supply (14.9%) and trade (12.4%).
BELGRADE REGION VISION
Strategy of sustainable development

of the City of Belgrade 2010
Elevating the City of Belgrade to the

same level as other successful cities in
Central, Eastern and Southeastern
Europe, in regards to the criteria of
sustainable economy and advanced
technology, with greater territorial
cohesion, good accessibility and
infrastructure, strong polycentric
decentralization and developed urban
identity.
Figure 11: Belgrade economy: snapshot of employment profiles. Source: Statistical

Yearbook of the Republic of Serbia, 2015.
The main economic challenge for Belgrade is how the city can
manage the transition from a model where private capital
played a minor role, into a model in which it plays a major role.
Many cities have gone through the process of liberalization in
the last 25 years, and many have learned the hard way that
while its benefits can be elusive, the downsides are guaranteed.
Belgrade is still a city in which public funding plays a very big
role, for better and for worse.

Public services and social development
Public services in Belgrades regional territory are publically
funded and supported by private sector investments. However,
these private sector investments are not monitored. Social
infrastructure planning therefore only takes into account data
from publically funded facilities. The following sub-sections
review public social infrastructure as documented in the
Regional Spatial Plan of Belgrade.
Healthcare services in the Belgrade region is provided by 56

state owned health institutions (in 2008). At the primary health
care level, there are 16 hospitals, with dedicated units for the
treatment of certain diseases, or certain aspects of health care
such as emergency, gerontology. Resources within these
hospitals are generally satisfactory, with many of them having
been recently renovated through ongoing maintenance. The
ratio of medical staff to patients is good, with 830 people per
physician.
Preschool education There are 17 preschool institutions with

more than 200 combined children's facilities across Belgrade.
These existing facilities are noted as being overcrowded. About
53% of children are enrolled in preschools, however this rate
varies significantly across different municipalities:
10 central municipalities have between 43-95% of children

enrolled
Seven marginal urban municipalities only have 35-46% of
children enrolled.
Primary education There are 196 primary schools (163
regular and 33 specialist). The conditions and performance of
primary schools have improved in the last decade. However,
differences in school capacities, equipment, and supporting
facilities persist. Funds for improving the quality of teaching,
such as mobile classrooms and mobile teaching teams, for
example, are available, but poorly used. Some schools are
structured to work in two shifts per day. There is no data on this
trend, but there appears to be a deficit of extended-stay and
full-day classes. Poor transport connectivity to some primary
schools also is an issue.
Secondary education There are 85 schools in Belgrade.

These are unevenly distributed across the city. Many schools
are concentrated in the center of town (on the left bank of the
Danube, there is only one secondary school). Each of
Belgrades outer municipalities has one or more secondary
schools, with large numbers of children from surrounding
villages enrolled, often resulting in overcrowding. A lack of
transport links to the peripheral municipalities also causes
issues of accessibility to these schools.
Social Welfare Provision Existing social welfare provision in

Belgrade does not currently provide services needed by adults
with special needs, vulnerable children and the elderly in an
efficient and economical way. There is also a lack of services
such as homeless shelters, especially for children. Recently,
however, a special housing program has been implemented as
a part of the citys social protection framework to support
vulnerable low income populations, including refugees and
other displaced people.

Belgrade transition as the capital of Yugoslavia to the
BELGRADE REGIONAL
capital of Serbia ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Belgrades role and status as a city has changed: it has gone - Agriculture by connecting the most
from being a major European metropolis in the 1970s, to being preserved large agricultural areas
which enables a systematic
the most important city in a small country. It has the spatial development of agricultural products
labeled "healthy food" under the
location and population size to be important and attractive special program;
again, and on a superficial level with hipster bars and - Tourism related to the river Danube,
tourism to the extent that it is possible
dedicated articles in the New York Times the city has been to engage natural and cultural
heritage as well as the hospitality
progressing in that direction. But, new projects and planning in trade the capacity of a specific type
the city has been mostly uncoordinated, generating an impact for this region;
- Sports and recreation with the most
for only small groups of people. important axis so called Olympic
diagonal in Belgrade, and river banks
The city, together with the country, is frozen in a state of Danube and Sava rivers
- Transport on an organized basis
suspended between two economic models: Yugoslav socialism multimodal nodes that involves port,
and Western market capitalism. Inside that frozen state, rail, air and road transport system in
correlation with the Panevo,
pockets of activity have appeared some people are doing very Smederevo and Kovin;
well, either through exploiting their connections within the city, - Water with enormous potential of the
river Danube and groundwater in the
or by looking into opportunities in the wider global markets. wider area of shoreline. Use of
waterways for transport, tourism,
There are those that have found employment in decent enough sports and recreation;
jobs, e.g. in banks or telecom companies, many of them set up - Industry with a new orientation
towards higher level of
with foreign capital. But the vast majority of people are still in environmentally friendly technological
production;
the frozen zone, working in low-paid jobs, either in the public
- Mining in the area of Kolubara lignite
sector (which has been allowed to deteriorate and decline), or basin (Spatial Plan of Kolubara lignite
Basin), with special measures od
in the private sector that has not moved beyond low-skill retail, socially sustainable relocation of
restaurant, and hospitality jobs. inhabitants, as well as mandatory
measures recultivation;
- Energy with higher level of technical,
Nowadays, there still is enough of the physical and economic and environmental
organizational capital from the Yugoslav era to provide a social efficiency using austerity protection,
monitoring and control (power plants
safety net thats strong enough to ensure a satisfactory quality TENT A and B, Vreoci and future
"Kolubara B" in Kaleni);
of life - apartments are owned without mortgages; healthcare
- Construction, particularly in the
and education are still theoretically free; social lives can be rich municipality of Lazarevac, taking
advantage of materials that
and varied, and society is not yet atomized. accompany mining and energy
system;
This suspended state may continue for a long time. Up until - Craft (production, art, service) which
has tradition and which can be
now governments have found it difficult to progress, either due developed towards providing
to ineffective practices or corruption. This has created some manufacturing services industry.
surprising benefits: for example, the bureaucracy was

complicated enough to prevent runaway urban development or
the unmanaged and potentially destructive entry of private
capital into, say, healthcare.
But this has also come at a price: the bureaucracy prevented
not only runaway urban development, but also most
development of any kind (apart from illegal construction). Inside
elites have made fortunes off their privileged positions, and at
the expensive of the general public. Those without privilege
connections are trying to leave; and there is a sense that the
public structures are deteriorating and might eventually degrade
beyond repair.
How can such an outcome be avoided?
External pressures are mounting: global capital is beginning to How can Belgrade become a true
metropolis again? How can a decent
enter the city; national politics are pushing the country towards quality of life be achieved for all? How
greater economic liberalism and the dismantling of the social can good aspects of the old system be
kept? How can aspects of the new
safety net; EU accession is wearing down the regulatory
system bring more money to the city,
structures that had been upholding the current frozen state; and and what could it be spent on? How
the same EU accession will make it easier yet for the young could corruption be dealt with? How can
the success of those who make it
and ambitious to leave.
globally trickle down to benefit the whole
of society? These are all important
As these pressures rise, the city may still manage to stay in a
questions.
state of stasis, but it is more likely to end up in a situation where
at best the elites will benefit, but the new money will not
reach the worse off in society.

2.4 Culture, Arts and
Sciences
Belgrade is the social, academic, artistic and scientific
centre of Serbia however its public institutions are
currently under-funded and lack a coordinated management
and leadership strategy.
Culture as a burden, rather than an opportunity
With a high concentration of the most important national cultural

and higher education institutions, as well as the network of the
Citys own, private and independent establishments, Belgrade
is the indisputable center of social, cultural, artistic and scientific
life of the country. This sphere reflects the same discontinuities
that characterize Belgrades wider development and its identity
- the same lack of vision, the same trend of centralization within
city and the country, uncoordinated management, and
insufficient capacity.
Figure 13: Belgrades cultural and natural heritage
Heritage and identity
CULTURE FACTS
Belgrades exhausting history of destruction, perpetual
- Center of the the highest state
reconstruction based on new ideas of different civilizations,
and national institutions of
leaves few physical cultural layers. Some of these pieces of culture and art: the Serbian
history luckily (and sometimes in spite of us) still exist. The Academy of Arts and Sciences,
archaeological site Vina, for example, is heavily National Library of Serbia,

National Museum, National
underexposed, underused, endangered and not on the Theater and the University of
UNESCO list, but still there. The remains of the antique Arts
Singidunum, including the traces of its cardo and decumanus in - City of Belgrade is the founder
of 30 cultural institutions (12
the urban fabric (unmarked and unknown to wider audiences) theaters, 8 conservation
are also still here. Belgrade does not have its medieval fort of institutes, 4 libraries, 6 cultural
rnov anymore, but the Kalemegdan Fortress is still here with centers and galleries), while
helping the implementation of
its aura, and its layers of a Roman Fortress, Byzantine castle, programmes and projects by
medieval fortified city and Austrian/Ottoman artillery fortification, institutions and art associations.
its cultural institutions and the opportunity of a museum park. - City of Belgrade is the founder
and sponsor of 11 cultural
There are still some physical traces of the magnificent
events (FEST, BITEF, BEMUS,
Ottoman/Balcanic Belgrade, remaining mostly in the citys BELEF, International
toponyms. There are also Agitprop legacies, the glorified Competition of Music Youth,
Festival of Documentary and
Brutalist architecture, socialist structures and institutions
Short Film, October Salon, Joy
tailored to the citys former glory. Belgrades face as the Capital of Europe, Belgrade Book Fair,
of the Non-Aligned Movement is still present. So are the Sopot Film Festival, Belgrade
Jazz Festival), and also
remains of Belgrade as center of a Balkanization. The only
supports 69 cultural events that
identity Belgrade has not created, at least not in a planned and take place in Belgrade.
intentional way, is the contemporary one. - Over 11.000 theatrical plays,
exhibitions, concerts,
performances and other artistic
Cultural facilities programme take place yearly.
- Eminent artists from all the
The existing system of institutions, art associations, and even world act here.
the number of artists in Belgrade and Serbia were formed and - The most significant works of
architecture, Kalemegdan and
developed for the needs of the whole Yugoslav territory,
Belgrade Fortress, cultural
where Belgrade as the capital city was a center of artistic life. monuments and other
With the dissolution of Yugoslavia, the cultural production (film, immovable cultural property
mark the city.
books, newspapers, festivals, etc.) lost its former ex-Yu
- Numerous archaeological sites
audiences, readers and market (BG 2020). The crises, with material remains trace
embargo and restructuring stopped many cultural activities, Belgrades history of civilization
and culture from prehistory to
especially expansion into other markets. For example,
the present.
Yugoslavia exported 10 to 15 times more TV shows than all the - The Secretariat for Culture
countries produced by its collapse do today (G. Mili, VICE). within the City Administration is
responsible for culture and art
The cultural facilities developed during the 50 years of socialism in the city.
became too big to maintain during the 1990s, and started to
deteriorate. With no cultural strategy, coordinated vision or
commitment to cultural development, the budget for culture was
constantly reduced, down to only 0.7% of the total city budget.
This is currently primarily spent on the technical reconstruction
of cultural facilities, with disastrous results.

The most valuable archaeological site in Vina is in a
CIVIL SECTOR IN THE
precarious condition, the two of most important and most CULTURE OF BELGRADE
popular national museums and one of the Landesmuseums (the The citys arts organizations (some active,
some less so) can be divided into the
National Museum, the Museum of Contemporary Art and the following groups:
Museum of Zemun) have been closed for 10-15 years. The 1. Art organizations (Remont, Dah
Theatre, Theatre and Creative pogon,
Museum of Applied Art and the City Museum are still without a Skart, etc.);
permanent residence. This has intellectually and spiritually 2. Research platforms (KH, Kiosk,
CZKD, ademica)
deprived generations of citizens (across both Belgrade and
3. Independent cultural centers (Reks
Serbia) of access to important works of culture and art. B92; KC GRAD)
4. Art and cultural networks and
Spatial distribution platforms and mediator
organizations (NKSS, Balkankult,
Within Belgrade, there are 25% of Serbias cultural institutions. ANET, nonimous se, etc.);
5. Foundations and endowments (Fund
This includes 61% of Serbias galleries, 50% of childrens Borislav Pekic, Endowment of Milos
theatres, 35% of museums, 31% professional theatres and 30% Crnjanski, etc.);
6. Mediator and activist organizations
of cinemas. These are unevenly distributed across the city, with (Roma associations, associations of
a concentration in the central municipalities.i The variety across children friends, Workshop for Repair
of the City, etc.);
these institutions reflects the comprehensiveness and 7. Hobbyist citizen associations
importance of socio-cultural life and development in the pre-90s (Association of Animation fans,
dance club, etc.);
period. 8. Cultural associations and amateur
organizations (singing societies,
However, for todays needs, there are gaps in this cultural cultural associations-KUD, Fiddle
society, Theater 13 etc.);
provision, a lack of cooperation and coordination between
9. Professional, class organizations
cultural institutions, and inadequate development of creative and branch associations (Association
of Composers of Serbia, ULUS,
industries within the private sector. This reflects the lack of a ULUPUDS, etc.).
national or city cultural development strategy. There is currently
no architectural museum, national opera and ballet, national
sound archive, or education center for specific occupations,
such as design or lighting. Without a comprehensive strategy,
these facilities lack the legislative solutions and financial
investment they need.
Figure 14: Cultural and social infrastructure of Belgrade
Higher education Institutions
Belgrade is the undisputed university center of Serbia, with over
half of public and private universities, and over half of the UNIVERSITIES IN BELGRADE
students in the country. More than half of the students in Serbia
study in Belgrade. The City is the centre
Spatial distribution of numerous state and private
universities and colleges. The University
of Belgrade has the longest history and
Belgrade has 11 universities. The largest, Belgrade University highest world ranking, 301-400 of the
has 30 schools at 45 locations in the city, and the University of Shanghai list.
Arts of Belgrade has four schools at 10 locations. The

11 UNIVERSITIES
universities are concentrated in the city center, within the
central municipalities, clustering in several areas (e.g. technical State (accredited universities, whose
founder is the Republic of Serbia):
and law schools near the Monument to Vuk Karadi,
humanities and natural sciences around the Student Square). - University of Belgrade,
- University of Arts of Belgrade,
This forms different kinds of open town campuses and establish - University of Defense.
different levels of integration in the urban fabric and everyday
Private (accredited private universities
life. Over time, there have been various ideas for redistribution and faculties in Serbia, whose founder is
not the state):
and forming university research centers in New Belgrade, in - Alfa University (ex-Braa Kari),
order to spread the dynamic associated with higher education - European University,
- John Naisbitt University (ex-
centers and increase the standards of facilities. However, the Megatrend),
university sector has suffered from the long-term recession and - Metropolitan University,
- Singidunum University,
lack of investment. - Union University,
- Union University Nikola Tesla,
Internationalization - Academy of Arts (in the process of
accreditation).
The share of foreign students is very small, only about 2%
compared to almost 50% in the 1980s, which indicates the 52 ACCREDITED SCIENTIFIC
AND RESEARCH INSTITUTES
untapped potential for the so-called academic tourism and for (state institutes and institutes with
mixed ownership)
the internationalization of the social life, supported by the vitality
and renewed attraction of Belgrade for the younger
generations. According to the Regional Spatial Plan, higher
education could become one of the city trademarks. However,
this will require solutions to current debates on the quality of
education after the decades of adverse conditions, and on the
possibility of retaining of young scholars and professionals, as
well as the implementation and valorization of local scientific
research.

2.5 Infrastructure
Ageing infrastructure poses a major stress on the city.
Belgrades transport, energy, and water management
systems currently perform surprisingly well in delivering
critical services to the city, however all require major
renovations and investment.
The Agenda Setting Pre-Workshop Survey for the City of
Belgrade indicated that the most likely acute shock for the city
is infrastructure and/or building failure. The most significant
stress faced by the city was identified as aging infrastructure,
but the biggest strength of the city is its ability to ensure
continuity of critical services. Belgrade indeed faces numerous
challenges concerning Transport, Energy and Utilities (water
treatment, water supply, sewage and drainage systems, waste
treatment, etc.), especially from the point of investment-
intensive requirements. However, across those sectors, city
services perform excellently in respect to the existing
conditions, and show considerably high potential.
Transport
Transport and transport infrastructure in the city of Belgrade
represents a very serious problem due to its underdevelopment,
construction and capacitive capabilities. On the other hand, it
also represents potential for further development. Infrastructure
development is one of the most influential factors in achieving
the overall objective of the Regional Spatial Development Plan
of Belgrade and its metropolitan areas.
Most employment in Belgrade is located in its central districts.
This results in commuting patterns with a strong to-center
direction in the morning and a corresponding away-from-center
movement in the evening. In the last ten years, commuting
patterns have changed due to higher concentration of business
within New Belgrade. This creates afternoon car traffic jams
along the bridges toward the city center. Car ownership rate in
Belgrade is low, at under 0.3 veh/person. This should be seen
as an opportunity, as it means that the city can escape the car
dependency of richer cities, if adequate policies are put in place
to avoid the growth of car ownership. This typically grows in
tandem with personal income. With relatively low car ownership,
the mode split is below 20% for cars, and over 40% for public
transport.
Parking in Belgrade appears to suffer a mismatch in supply and
demand. Area that are favored for parking (mainly on-street)
have insufficient capacity, and formal off-street parking, in the
form of garages, tends to remain underused. No formal parking
structure reports more than 81.1% utilization at the peak times
(with only 45.1% usage on average throughout the day). Given
the time at which the peaks occur mid-day and early
afternoon it is clear that this demand is not related to work
trips.
The importance of multimodality is recognized, with a high-
capacity metro or train network being mentioned by Mobility
Focus Discussion Group participants as a necessity. The lack
of an inner ring road and lack of a city bypass are described as
contributing to a poor road network. River transport was
mentioned as a possible layer to add to the existing public
transport network. From an operational perspective, participants
specifically recommended improvements to flood resilience, the
need to preserve critical infrastructure and ensure adequate
emergency response services.
The public transport network is extensive and multi-modal
buses, trams and trolleybuses, as well as suburban trains, with
integrated ticketing throughout. It carries the majority of trips
into the city, and is therefore the backbone of transport in the
city. Buses are by far the predominant mode in terms of number
of passengers (over 1.7m/day vs around 200k for each of the
other modes) and network length (800km vs <100km).
Figure 15: General transport solutions (Belgrade Master urban plan, Town Planning
Institute of Belgrade, 2016)

Belgrades future transport network configuration, according to
the Belgrade Smartplan 2017, consists of:
Rail or metro (high capacity)

Multimodality
Inner Ring Road (lack thereof)
Urban bypass
River transport
Resilience to flooding
Structural improvements / asset management
Emergency response
To achieve the basic objective of the Belgrade Regional spatial

planning period until 2021, the transport sector objectives are:
The development of transport and transport infrastructure

defined as a priority program thats supports economic and
social policies;
Achieve a balance between external connectivity of the
Belgrade region and internal organization within the city, as
single unit in coordination with the metropolitan
environment;
Harmonization and coordination of all transport modes
(road, rail, river, air,) to organize a multimodal European-
level node to the network logistics centres;
Sound coordination with projects that support transport
corridors VII and X;
The development of partnerships between the public and
private sectors with regards to the planning, construction
and operation of transport networks and facilities;
The creation of efficient and comfortable public transport to
the metropolitan area of Belgrade supported by a rail
transport system. This includes raising the level of service
in suburban public transport and its integration with public
transport in other regional urban centers of Belgrade;
The development, rehabilitation, revitalization and
reconstruction of transportation networks and facilities
(road, rail, cycling, networks in the function of tourism,
recreation movement, etc.);
Standardization and modernization of technical elements,
transport infrastructure, transport equipment, signaling and
traffic regime;
Developing policies that support the development of
transport as industry.
Energy
The mining basin "Kolubara", located within the City of Belgrade
area, is the largest coal producer in Serbia (about 70%). The
bulk of coal - about 90% - is used for electricity generation in
the "Nikola Tesla" thermal power plants (TPP) in Obrenovac.ii
The Belgrade region also has over 50% of the total thermal
power producing capacity of the Republic of Serbia.
The Energy sector consists of the following structure and
sytems:
Electric power sources, including power plants of

installed 2907 MW power.
Systems for the transmission of electricity from the
transmission lines and associated 400, 220 and 110 kV
substations, through which transmission of electricity takes
place.
Power Distribution Systems, located in spending centers
through which the electricity supply is delivered to
customer across the electricity sectors.
The defining characteristic across all those parts of the energy
system is the significantly outdated nature of technology and
low energy efficiency, as well as the now worrying and
unacceptable implications for environmental protection. The
repair, improvement and modernization of these production
facilities is critical. The replacement of power facilities with new
energy sources is a high priority in order to meet increasing
energy needs from both Belgrades intensive economic
development and the increasing living standards of its citizens.
In addition to this, it is necessary to assess the success of
rational use programs and increase the efficiency of energy use
in all sectors consuming electricity.
A large proportion of Belgrades buildings were constructed in
the boom in the 1960s and 70s, before thermal performance
regulations. As such, energy efficiency of the building stock is
quite low, and the intensity of energy consumption very high.
The commissioning of the District Heating Plant of Novi
Beograd for the heating season of 1961/62 is deemed to be the
beginning of the centralized heating supply to Belgrade. Since
then, a number of district heating projects have been approved.
Belgrades district heating system is now one of the largest in
Europe with a total network length of 1420 km and a capacity of
over 2800 MW. The majority of the network (86%) is run on
natural gas with the rest powered by fuel boilers. No waste heat
from cogeneration or other low carbon sources is currently
being employed.

Figure 16: General solutions of heat and gas supply (Belgrade Master urban plan, Town
Planning Institute of Belgrade 2016)
However, the ageing system is thought to be unable to cope

with the burgeoning demands of the growing population, with
many buildings connected to heat networks still relying on
electricity supply for heating. This is observed through
noticeable peak loading on the electricity grid during the heating
season. iii
Today, the Belgrade region is divided into several heating
areas, each with their own thermal springs, which are expanded
in line with the development of heat consumption.iv Basic
energy for the operation of two thirds of boiler facilities of
Belgrade comes from natural gas, lignite, heavy oil. The Region
of Belgrade is the largest consumer of oil and petroleum
products in the Republic of Serbia, therefore the problem of
securing these quantities must be considered as a part of the
overall needs of our country.
Figure 17: General solutions of heat and gas supply (Belgrade Master urban plan, Town
Planning Institute of Belgrade 2016)
In the municipality of Mladenovac, at the site of Rehabilitation

Center "Banja", boreholes into thermal are used to supply the
thermal energy of the sanatorium complex. However, it is
generally thought that the current use of renewable energy
sources is negligible compared to the estimated the possibility
of their use in the future.
The strategy for the development of renewable energy sources
in the Belgrade region remains unchanged, and its main
principles according Regional Spatial Plan are:
Intensifying research and the potential of solar energy

geothermal, wind, biomass and other renewable sources in
order to create the prerequisites for mass use; and
Greater use of technogenic mineral raw materials: ash
power plants, slag, etc.
The key driver encouraging Serbias diversification in its energy
mix is its desired ascension to join the EU. The EU works
closely with applicant countries in the development of their new
energy concepts, and clearly outlines the benefits of observing
the EUs sustainable energy principles. Key ascension
conditions include: third party ownership of energy transmission
infrastructure; security for energy suppliers; reduced
dependence on energy imports by suggesting target of 27% of
energy consumption to come from renewable sources; 40%

less greenhouse gas emissions than 1990 by 2030. Serbia will
wish to ensure its planned investments align with EU directives.
The main issue with Belgrades electricity supply is that there is
no direct link between the electricity generators (EMS) and the
end consumers. The connection is managed by the EPS
distribution (the network), and there is currently significant
stress on the transmission network. Furthermore, a
comprehensive forecast of supply capacity has only been
carried out for the next 10 years.
The city of Belgrade has set up an Energy Efficiency Fund,
which will be available by the end of the first quarter of 2017. In
August of 2016, Belgrade officially joined the Building Efficiency
Accelerator (a program that aims to double the rate of energy
efficiency improvement by helping authorities speed up
adoption of best practices) and the District Energy in Cities
initiative (a platform for cooperation between cities and the
private and public sectors). The platform will support national
and municipal governments in their efforts to develop, retrofit
and scale up district energy systems). Belgrade will be the only
city worldwide where both initiatives will be implemented in
2017. It will receive guidance and support from other district
energy champions such as Paris, Helsinki, Warsaw and Tokyo.
Utilities
The most significant components of utility provision are water
supply, wastewater treatment and sewage, and waste
management.
Water supply for the citys central and surrounding
municipalities is provided through multiple separate systems -
these are of different sizes and standards of quality. Water
supply systems in the more rural areas of the Belgrade region
are often informally built and relatively small. Waterworks in the
citys suburban municipalities continuously have problems
finding a stable solution for water supply, due to poor
distribution systems and a lack of facilities for water treatment.
The state of the distribution system in a number of settlements
is unsatisfactory, leading to losses of over 30% of water. Water
sources are not sufficiently protected, or are over exploited,
which leads to their deterioration. Due to heavy losses,
individual consumption rates are high, at around 460 l/c/day. In
villages, individual water consumption rates are about 2/3 of
consumption of the city. The coverage of household plumbing is
also uneven:
in urban municipalities, 98% of households have a water

supply,
in the suburban municipalities its 68-83% and
it is in a particularly bad state in rural settlements where
35% of households have no water supply.
Figure 18: General solutions of water supply (Belgrade Urban Masterplan, Town
Planning Institute of Belgrade, 2016)

The development of the sewage system was considerably
slower than the development of the water supply system (by the
coverage and by households degree of connection to the
sewerage system). A particularly severe problem is the
absence of sewage systems in areas near to main water
sources, without a wastewater treatment facility.
Sewage systems are the most neglected infrastructure systems
in Belgrade:
about 25% of the population in the city is not connected to

sewerage,
Large number of flows enter the citys waterways without
treatment,
the state of sanitation of urban areas is getting increasingly
worse
Groundwater is getting polluted because septic tanks were
built as drainage wells,
There is lack of sewage systems, even in some of the
areas near to the main water sources,
Some emergency facilities, such as necessary surge
protection associated with water treatment plants, are not
completed
In a transitional period (before WTP construction) there was no
location for sewage trucks to discharge the contents of drains
and septic tanks.
Serbia currently has around 8% of wastewater treatment, in

about 44 WWTPs out of which six are operational.
Figure 19: General solutions of the system of channeling surface and wastewater
(Belgrade Urban Masterplan, Town Planning Institute of Belgrade, 2016)
Belgrades waters sources must be considered as a key
resource for development, a resource that should be protected
both in terms of quality and quantity.
The northern part of the Belgrade area intersects the Danube
and Sava, while the southern part of the city is within the basin
of Kolubara and Veliki Lug. The northern part of the Sava and
Danube zone is threatened by the risk of high water levels.
Within the Belgrade region, there are about 160 smaller
watercourses with the potential to threaten parts of the villages
with dangerous flash flooding.
Transboundary waters of the Danube and Sava rivers, with the
average annual flow of over 210x109 m3, are a very important
resource. However this quantity is beyond Belgrades control.
Fluctuations in both the Sava and Danubes river flows pose
challenges to the management of the citys water supply. For
example, the majority of the city is located in the zone where
runoff is about -2 l/skm2, which according to indicators of
water supply makes Belgrade one of the driest areas in all of
the Republic of Serbia. Separately, the upstream thermal power
plant in Obrenovac, for example, works via flow-through heating
and cooling systems, which can warm the river basin, especially
during periods of low water flows. It is therefore critical to define
and implement measures to avoid warming of the river basin in
order to protect the drinking water treatment plant and prevent
the eutrophication of water in the area.
Groundwater sources are also a valuable resource, but
unequally distributed across the Belgrade region. The zone
along both banks of the Sava and Danube in particular are
valuable sources of underground water, however their
protection regime requires strengthening in order to protect one
of Belgrades potential primary future water sources.
Floodplains (buffer zones around the artificial lake, river and
lakes, ponds and wetlands ) are greatly compromised by illegal
construction, which endangers both water quality and
biodiversity. This illegal construction is a combination of
unplanned construction of houses, uncontrolled extraction of
gravel and sand, and illegal construction on the river
embankments.There is a lack of attention from local
governments to protect these areas of water supply. Wetland
and pond management currently does not meet the standards
set by the Ramsar Convention principles, and are in danger of
becoming polluted and dried up.
Regulating Belgrades river system requires tackling several
different tasks:

on the Sava and Danube, in the very heart of the city, the
regulations must have a multipurpose character: they must
protect the city from floods, but also provide connectivity
between the city two its two rivers;
regulation on the relocation of the Kolubara river and its
tributaries are aimed at making land available for open pit
mines, and protection against flooding;
smaller streams in the more rural areas play an important
role in the wider urban flood protection regulation (river
Groica in Grocka, Barajevska river, etc.). and
all other regulations have the task of stabilizing, flood
protection and harmonious integration of the environmental
and the surrounding urban environment.
Along the Sava and Danube, around 48 km of river dikes
and quays have been built. Some of the quays (on the left
bank of the Sava, at the estuary), have become a visual and
recreational treasure for the city, nested in the parks along
the rivers coast.
The aims and criteria for further work on this waterfront plan are
as follows:
a complete end to building on the banks the Sava and
the Danube, according to the principles of urban
regulation
a combination of river dikes and quays, walking or biking
promenade quays can run continually from Zemin along
Danube river, and then along the Sava River on both
sides.
the elevation of individual paths should be adjusted in
relation to the current climate conditions.
With Belgrades position on the Danube and Sava, with close to
the confluence of the Tisa river (an international waterway), and
the Danube-Tisa-Danube hydro system (an extensive network
of internal waterways), it has all the conditions to be one of the
most important European river ports. 1.663 km of inland
waterways in the Republic of Serbia gravitate towards the city.
Through the Danube River, the city is also linked with the major
Danube- Main-Rhine European waterway system.
The Sava has recently been categorized as an international
waterway (in addition to the Danube and Tisa rivers), thus the
importance of Belgrade as an inland harbor will be even more
pronounced for both freight and passenger traffic (with possible
ports in Obrenovac, Bari and Ostrunica).
2.6 Climate and the urban
environment
Belgrade is already experiencing the effects of climate
change although current modelling suggests the rate of
change in this geographic region will accelerate in future
decades. The city faces climate-induced hazards such as
landslides, flooding and heat waves, and these are
exacerbating issues associated with poor planning
practices and illegal developments.
Most of the data on climate change scenarios and projections,
as well as the data on climate change adaptation measures, are
derived from the Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan and
Vulnerability Assessment (CCAAPVA).v The perceived gaps
and areas of opportunities in this realm were identified and
analysed during the 100 RC Mini-Lab & Focus Group held on
November 10, 2016 (gathering professionals from 17
institutions), as well as during a series of one-to-one meetings
and several group meetings.

Figure 20: Spatial distribution of potential climate change impacts within the
administrative territory of Belgrade (CCAAPVA, 2015)
The City of Belgrade belongs to the SE European region which
LAST 20 YEARS:
experiences more accelerated climate change than the global
average. Following the conclusions of the Initial 8 heat waves
Communication of Serbia under the United Nations Framework
2 droughts
Convention on Climate Change (2010), it can be observed that
in Belgrade, the annual mean air temperature rise in the period 5 extreme cold periods
1949-2009 was 0.2C per decade, due to an urban heat island 1 * frozen Danube
effect. This implies that the accumulated average air
Hundreds of storms
temperature rise over the span of 60 years was 1.2C which
is higher than the global average (1C rise compared to the
pre-industrial era). The precipitation trends indicate the number
of days with heavy precipitation also increased.
According to the climate change projections and scenarios
developed within the ORIENTGATE project
(http://www.orientgateproject.org/) for the time periods between
20212050 and 20712100 in comparison to the reference
period 19712000 (urevi and Kri, 2014), an increase of
mean annual temperature of 2C can be expected by 2050, but
an increase of 5.6C can be expected by the end of the 21st
century! The number of hot days (with temperatures over 25C)
is expected to increase by 60 days per year by 2100.
Concerning precipitation projections, no changes are expected
in the number of days with heavy precipitation, but a more
extreme regime with increasing intensity of rain is expected,
especially in spring and summer.
Figure 21: Spatial distribution of potential climate change impacts within the
metropolitan territory of Belgrade (CCAAPVA, 2015)

Consequently, the City of Belgrade is very vulnerable to
extreme weather events and climate-related disasters -
especially its territories in some sub-urban municipalities, such
as Obrenovac at the confluence of Kolubara and Sava Rivers,
where land is highly prone to erosion and eroded accumulation.
Local vulnerability to extreme weather events related to climate
change can be evidenced in the past climate-related events.
Between 1995 and 2014, Belgrade experienced:
eight heat waves (1997, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2009,

2012 and 2013);
two droughts (2000, 2012);
five extreme cold periods (1998, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012);
storms more often during summer in the last several
years.
These climatic events are expected to persist in the future.
Alarmingly, longer and more frequent droughts are expected at
the end of the 21st century, due to the following reasons:
less rain in the summer

higher air temperatures
consequently higher evaporation rates
rising temperatures in autumn with more evapo-transpiration
and a longer vegetation period.
Climate change, as an important stress to the City of Belgrade,
contributes to more frequent and more intensive natural
hazards and disasters, inflicting significant shocks to the city.
The severe impacts of those shocks are strongly interrelated
with inadequate urban planning instruments combined with
illegal development and insufficiently integrated urban
development strategies another major Citys set of combined
stresses.
Expected future changes in weather conditions in Belgrade are:
Spring and summer: heat waves will be more frequent and

long lasting. Rainfall intensity will increase. Storms will be
more intense and frequent.
Autumn and winter: reduced extreme cold periods due to
the expected increase temperature during the winter period.
The main climate adaptation measures foreseen are
categorized according to the level of priority and the timeframe
for their implementation:
Very high priority measures are:

- Flood protection;
- Green infrastructure;
- Urban planning to avoid flood risk;
High priority measures are:
- Water retentions, water drainage, water saving and reuse;
- Green open spaces and green alleys;
- Awareness raising and behavior change;
- Institutional and organizational measures and warning
systems.
Figure 22: Durable goods of Belgrade (Belgrade Urban Masterplan, Town Planning
Institute of Belgrade, 2016)
There is a series of measures outlined that the City of Belgrade

that are marked as necessary for a full adaptation to the climate
changes. Although some measures are marked as lower
priority, it is imperative for Belgrade to implement the greatest
number of these measures as possible. To achieve complete
results, it is necessary that competent institutions and others
participants have multisector approach. It is, therefore,
necessary to provide adequate financial support from different
sources.

2.7 Governance and budget
management
This section provides an overview of the structure and
functions of Belgrades various governing bodies.
The City of Belgrade is treated as local government, within the
existing single-stage and almost completely mono-structured
system of local self-government in Serbia. The current
Constitution recognizes the special character of Belgrade as the
capital, but does not anticipate that it will extend its self-
governing jurisdiction in addition to those entrusted (art. 189,
par. 5 of the RS Constitution).
Governance structure
The City of Belgrade is a separate territorial unit, in which the
citizens run the local self-government. The bodies of the City of
Belgrade include: City Assembly, Mayor, City Council, City
Administration of the City of the Belgrade.
Figure 23: City of Belgrade administration organigram, http://www.beograd.rs/en/city-
authority/
The City Assembly is a representative body consisting of 110

councilors elected in direct elections by a proportional electoral
system. The city of Belgrade has two executive bodies - the city
council and mayor - who are elected indirectly by the Assembly.
The City Council has 15 members, including the mayor and the
deputy mayor. Members of the Council may be responsible for
one or more areas within the jurisdiction of the city.
The City Administration is responsible for performing all
administrative affairs for the City of Belgrade. The Mayor of the
City Administration can appoint to five Deputy Mayors, to
deliver initiatives, propose projects and provide opinions on the
development of the city from the perspective of each of their
respective departments.
In 2005, a local Ombudsman was established as a separate
body of the City Administration.

The Authorities of the City of Belgrade
The City of Belgrade is responsible for delivering the actions
stipulated in the Republic of Serbias constitution, across the 17
municipalities. In addition, it is also responsible for delivering
actions within the framework of the citys own authorities, as
well as other actions stated by the citys legislation and City
Charter:
City Development Programs, Regional and Urban

Planning, Construction Approvals
This involves reviewing: the adoption of the development
programs and bylaws for their implementation from the
perspective of authorities of the City of Belgrade; Regional
physical and urban development plans (approved by the
urban municipality); Approvals for construction of buildings/
facilities exceeding 800 m2 of gross area, and infrastructure
facilities;
Building Land Management

This involves: granting building land leases (except in cases
of urban municipality jurisdiction under the present Charter);
planning related to building land planning and use; deciding
on the reimbursement amounts payable; developing
initiatives for building land planning; founding public
companies for building land planning, use, improvement
and/or protection;
Housing Stock & Public Buildings Maintenance

This involves: looking after the maintenance and safety of
apartment buildings use; deciding the compensation
amounts to be collected for apartment buildings
maintenance; keeping records on the method of organizing
operations of apartment buildings maintenance; establishing
regulations and securing the use of public commercial
premises it administers; deciding on reimbursement and
supervision of public buildings;
Environmental Protection
This involves: monitoring environmental protection
programs within national heritage and conservation
initiatives; monitoring environmental protection measures
within regeneration or strategic city projects; deciding on
environmental protection and improvement fees.
Figure 24: Organizational scheme of the City of Belgrade including Municipalities, Public
enterprises, public utility companies, public social infrastructure

Public Infrastructure Management
This involves: regulating, monitoring and developing public
utility services, as well as the material and other conditions
for their continuous performance; determining water
management requirements; issuing water-management
approvals and permits to critical local facilities (including
springs, public wells and drinking fountains); regulating and
providing management of local unclassified roads and
streets; regulating and coordinating passenger taxi
transport; regulating and coordinating liner shipping
transport in the City territory; and determining the potential
locations for the construction of hydro-engineering facilities
may be considered, or positioned (along the citys coastal
and riverside areas).
Social Infrastructure Management

This involves: establishing institutions and organizations for
elementary education, culture, primary health care, physical
education, sports, child care, social welfare and tourism, as
well as monitoring and ensuring their operation; organizing
conservation initiatives for the citys cultural assets;
promoting cultural and artistic amateurism; creating the
conditions for successful public cultural institutions (such as
museums and libraries).
Disaster Risk Reduction Management
This involves: establishing of commodity reserves and
deciding on their scope and composition (with approval from
the relevant Ministry); organizing protection measures
against natural and other major disasters (including fire
protection); creating the conditions to mitigate the after
effects from such disasters.
Economic Development Support
This involves: promoting and evaluating the development of
tourism; deciding on the tourist tax rate; promoting
development and upgrading of the catering, handicrafts and
trades; regulating working hours and sites where certain
activities may be performed; establishing protection
measures for the planning and/or use of farmland;
identifying areas at risk from erosion; regulating the
protection of domestic and exotic animals or pets;
monitoring the use of pasture land; promoting and
supporting the development of the cooperative movement.
Institutional Support to Social Cohesion
This involves: ensuring the legal protection of the rights and
interests of the City; initiating the bodies, organizations
and/or services needed by the City; organizing legal
assistance services for citizens; ensuring all operations of
public interest to citizens adheres to the Constitution,
legislation and/or City Charter.
Adoption of the Budget and Annual Financial Report
Budget management
The actions of the City of Belgrade are financed by taxes,
stamp duties, reimbursements/fees and/or other public
revenues (in accordance to legislation). Funds from the
Republic of Serbia are also provided to carry out its rights and
responsibilities within the City. In accordance with legislation,
funds may also be collected through self-imposed taxes with a
view to meeting the needs of citizens in Belgrade.
The City independently manages its revenues and receipts. The
City Assembly and Mayor decide on spending of the budgetary
funds.

2.8 Current strategies,
plans and development
frameworks
Since 2008, the Republic of Serbia has implemented a
broad range of measures to prepare the country for
accession into the EU. This process has highlighted the
ongoing challenges of aligning a multi-sector approach to
national strategies for mobility, energy security,
environmental risks, socio-economic disparities, security
and organised crime.
The last ten years have been characterized by the dramatic

actions taken by the national government in order to move
towards EU integration. The Agreement on Stabilization and
Association between the EU and the Republic of Serbia was
signed on 29 April 2008. In order to meet the demands arising
from the ASA and preparing the state administration for the new
challenges and responsibilities faced in the process of
accession to the EU, Serbia has prepared a National Program
for EU Integration (NPI). This was adopted in October 2008,
and enables the Government activities involved in the EU
accession process to be planned, monitored and effectively
coordinated. It defines development and strategic objectives
and the policy reforms and measures necessary for the
implementation of these goals, as well as a detailed plan,
timetable and priorities for the adoption of legislation and the
bodies responsible for its preparation. Complete implementation
of the goals of the NPI was planned to end in 2012, when
Serbia should have been technically ready to assume all the
obligations required for EU membership. However, this process
has been prolonged. As the NPI was implemented, 150
different National strategies have been developed to date, with
some being renewed several times Appendix 2).
Analysis of the national strategic documents indicates that a
major stress on the national policies, is economic and social
development (mentioned in 65 documents). However, the
issues of identity and culture and public participation are not
raised.
Significant attention is given to building leadership and strategic
approach, but many important sub-drivers are not strategically
tackled (such as multistakeholder alignment, public risk
awareness, risk monitoring and alerts, communication between
government and public, land use and development). When we
BELGRADE REGION VISION
consider infrastructure and environment policies, it is interesting
to note that more than 50% of documents are dealing with Elevating the City of Belgrade to the
same level as other successful cities in
communication technologies. On the other hand, issues of Central, Eastern and Southeastern
mobility not adequately addressed by national strategies. The Europe, in regards to
whole issue is critical services is also missing from national and advanced
,
strategies. In the field of health and wellbeing, not enough
with greater regional cohesion ,
attention is given to the issues of water supply, food security better accessibility ,
and livelihood support following shocks. Traffic and other infrastructure,
with strong
Over the same period of the NPI, Belgrades City Administration polycentric decentralization
Secretariats have developed several sector specific strategies : and a developed
urban identity .
Energy Development Strategy of the City of Belgrade, 2008
Tourism Development Strategy, 2008 Principles of development
Sustainability
Retail development Strategy, 2008
Competitiveness
Afforestation Strategy, 2009
Cohesion
Agriculture Development Strategy, 2009
Polycentrism
Strategy to support Civil Society Development, 2012
Accessibility
Mobility Management Plan proposal, 2012
Identity
However most of these strategies have been unsuccessful -
their implementation failed and they have never been monitored
Regional Spatial Plan of Belgrade, 2009
or evaluated. Only one, the Strategy of Sustainable
Development of the City of Belgrade (first proposal 2008, then
in 2011, now new proposal in process of adoption) generated
more activities and objectives. It reflects the need for a more
integrated strategic approach to the territorial development.
However, the difficulties with adopting this strategy highlight the
problem with its methodological approach: the methodology is
still very traditional, more scientific and quantitative, and without
much effort put in to gaining a wider public consensus on key
aspects such as vision, values and goals, or in mobilizing the
private and civil sector. The analysis of the strategic planning
activities show that Belgrade is still not aligned with national
policies in many important areas of resilience. Moreover, issues
that are not recognized as being important by the national
strategies would be very difficult to be raise and implement on
the regional level.
In the past ten years, plans for urban development in the
Belgrade region have become more intense. The Amendments
to the Regional Spatial Plan of the administrative area of the
City of Belgrade (2011) and seven spatial plans for urban
municipalities outside the central city area have been adopted
(in Lazarevac, Barajevo, Mladenovac, Sopot, Obrenovac and

the parts of the city municipalities of Surin and Grocka, 2012-
2013).
After two cycles of revision, the Belgrade Master Plan was
adopted (2016), which identified potential locations for major
flagship projects for the city, regeneration and transformation of
old industrial and military complexes, as well as planning
solutions for economic zones and parks. At the same time, the
Plan of General Regulation (PGR) construction was agreed
and adopted by the local self-government of Belgrade (2016).
The adoption of spatial and urban plans created a basis for
planning and construction for the entire Belgrade region. The
total area of the land available for construction in the central
part of the City has increased. Following the development of the
PGR, 372 plans were revised and implemented fully, and
another 171 plans were adopted in the period between 2012
and September 2016. For over 27% of the Belgrade region, the
PGR enabled direct implementation of construction rules,
without any further planning activity.
There a further two important documents for the development of
the City of Belgrade. The Government of the Republic of Serbia
committed their participation in the comprehensive EU Strategy
for the Danube Region, in March 2010. The EU Strategy for the
Danube Region is outlined in two documents: (1) a
Communication from the European Commission to the other EU
Institutions, and (2) an accompanying Action Plan, which
complements the Communication.
According to the Strategy, there are major challenges to be
addressed:
- Mobility: the Danube River itself is a major TEN-T Corridor,

used way below its full capacity. Freight transported on the
Danube is only 10-20% of that transported on the Rhine.
Inland waterway transport has important environmental and
efficiency benefits; therefore, its potential must be exploited
sustainably. There is a particular need for greater multi-
modality, better interconnection with other river basins,
modernizing and extending infrastructure in transport nodes
such as inland ports.
- Energy: The price of energy in the Danube Region is high,
in relative terms. Fragmented markets lead to higher costs
and reduced competition. Reliance on too few external
suppliers increases vulnerability, as demonstrated with
periodic winter crises. A greater diversity of supply through
interconnections and genuine regional markets will increase
energy security. Improved efficiency, including energy
saving and more renewable sources, is crucial.
- Environment: The Danube Region is a major international
hydrological basin and ecological corridor. This requires a
regional approach to nature conservation, spatial planning
and water management. Pollution does not adhere to
national borders. Major problems such as untreated sewage

and fertilizer and soil run-off make the Danube highly
polluted. The environmental impact of transport links, tourist
developments, or new energy-producing facilities must also
be considered.
- Risks: major flooding, droughts, and industrial pollution
events are all too frequent. Prevention, preparedness and
effective reaction require a high degree of cooperation and
information sharing.
- Socio-economic disparities: the country has some of the
most successful, but also the poorest regions in the EU. In
particular, contacts and cooperation are often lacking, both
financially and institutionally. Enterprises do not sufficiently
exploit the international dimension of marketing, innovation
or research. The share of highly educated people in the
Danube Region is lower than the EU27 average, again with
a pronounced divide. The best often leave.
- Security, serious and organized crime: significant
problems persist. Trafficking in human beings and
smuggling of goods are particular problems in several
countries. Corruption undermines public confidence and
hampers development.
However, Danube Region also has many potentials: transport
and trade links, solid education system, striking cultural, ethnic
and natural diversity, renewable energy sources, and rich
environmental assets. Therefore, the Four Strategy Pillars aim
to address the major issues. Each includes Priority Areas,
distinct fields of action.
End Notes
i
Centralization decentralization of cultural facilities: The
index of dispersion of cultural facilities (ID) indicates there is a
large difference between the city municipalities with regards to
cultural institutions.
Only three of the central municipalities - Stari grad, Zemun and
Vodovac - reach the above average ID value for Belgrade,
concentrating 55% of Belgrades cultural activities. The network
of cultural institutions is inadequate in all other municipalities (ID
< 2.53), and in particular the suburban ones (Barajevo, Grocka,
Lazarevac, Mladenovac, Sopot and Surin) (BG 2020). The civil
sector and independent art scene are trying to counteract such
an extreme centralization of cultural activities through their
activities that highlight abandoned and neglected cultural urban
and extra urban spaces, their temporary use, as well as the need
for renewal of the concept of the local community and its social,
cultural and educational role.
iiTENT (Termoelekttrane Nikola Tesla) "A" has 1650.5 MW
installed capacity, TENT "B" has total 1,240 MW installed
capacity and "Kolubara A" at Veliki Crljeni, has a total installed
capacity of 271 MW. In recent years, the reconstruction of the
existing "Kolubara A" in Veliki Crljeni, however, provided an
additional 73 MW electricity and also included the main Crljeni-
Vreoci heating pipe through which the thermal energy for the
municipality of Lazarevac is supplied.
iiiThe peak load on the electricity grid (in DHN connected
buildings) occurs in winter when electric heaters are employed to
supplement the insufficient capacity of the DHN supply. Apart
from this period, the stress on the electricity grid is reasonably
constant throughout the year. The grid is rarely stress during
summer months possibly because the use of air conditioning
units is not widespread. This may change in the future as
continued economic development creates a more affluent
populace with the means to install air conditioning.
ivThe basis of the district heating system consists of 16 heating
plants, with a hot water network supplying urban heating areas
with a series of larger and smaller networked boilers.
v The CCAAPVA was prepared by the Secretariat for
Environmental Protection of the City of Belgrade in the
framework of the Project Climate Change Adaptation in the
Western Balkans (CCAWB), financed by the GIZ and
implemented between 2012 and 2015.

RESILIENCE
DIAGNOSIS
3. Resilience Diagnosis
Using the diagnostic tools provided by the 100
Resilient Cities program, this section reports on an in-
depth analysis of the citys key resilience parameters
- the actions being undertaken, the perceptions held
by key stakeholders and citizens, and the primary
shocks and stresses that face the city. The analyses
creates a complete list of current activities
undertaken, provide sinsight into the citys strengths
and areas for improvement, and creates a basis for
forward looking projections as well as areas that
represent opportunities for integration and possible
optimisation.

3.1 Designing an Innovative
Engagement Process
A multi-stakeholder approach is required to develop
Belgrades urban resilience strategy. A Stakeholder
Engagement Plan was developed and implemented in order
to engage a network of professionals, academics, NGOS,
students and the general public, in building a resilience
plan for Belgrade. This is the first time such a process has
been led in this way.
The field of urban resilience is broad, the process of its strategic

planning comprehensive, and its importance for the functioning
of the city and well-being of citizens vast. Neither urban
planners (prevalent in our team) nor sector experts can tackle
resilience challenges alone.
We wanted to encourage Belgradians to join in, as this
resilience strategy is for all of us. We therefore carefully
prepared the Stakeholder Engagement Plan and called for
assistance from a broad group of professionals from private and
public companies, colleagues from the universities and non-
governmental organizations, students, and the general public.
Our aim was to familiarize all stakeholders with resilience as a
planning principle but also work together to open up new ideas,
perspectives and opportunities for reflection, advancement and
cooperation. We therefore initiated a dynamic and open
network, through which we will further plan and implement the
strategy, and build the resilience of Belgrade and Belgradians.
In order to explore Belgrades shocks and stresses, and further
key dimensions of resilience, we organized a series of thematic
workshops, group discussions, interviews, and an online
survey. These will continue as our resilience strategy develops.
Over 1,000 citizens have engaged with the concept of urban
resilience throughout this first phase of work. They have become
co-authors of the Belgrade Resilience Strategy: they helped us
appreciate the hard work of public servants, which has ensured
city services have continued to function throughout decades of
recession; they conveyed their concerns and interests in the city;
and they shared their hopes, fears and perceptions, which we
then translated into Belgrades resilience assessment.
It is important to note, a particularly significant aspect of our
effort has been the work with students, conducted through
lectures in urban planning modules, through guest lectures by
world experts, and through student workshops and projects.
Figure 1 Engagement Inventory

3.2 What we are doing
Almost 600 existing actions relating to resilience in
Belgrade were mapped in order to identify where the city
and its citizens are devoting their efforts and resources.
This revealed opportunities for improvements and cross-
sector coordination. Diagrams are used to visualise the
interdependencies between resilience activities, but also
the missing links.
Due to the changes in our recent history, the Republic of Serbia
Belgrade Development
has established 170 national strategies that relate to resilience Strategy 2017 Aims
in Belgrade in the last decade alone. In the current phase of
1. A competitive economy based
transition in legislation, and of huge plans and limited on knowledge - strengthening
the competitiveness of the
opportunities to implement them, we needed to focus and frame economy of the city of Belgrade,
which is based on a targeted
the inventory of resilience-oriented actions. Therefore, the investment attraction and rapid
development of industries based
Resilient Belgrade Team opted for a methodology of "Holistic on knowledge and with greater
added value;
Plans/Strategies + Consultation" and used the Action Plan of
2. Smart urban development of
the Belgrade Development Strategy 2017 as a starting point. the city on two European rivers
- the smart urban development
This was then supplemented with the inputs from the focus that is based on an enhanced
identity and contemporary forms
group discussions, small group consultations, interviews and of participation;
3. Sustainable mobility for
surveys. interactive development of the
city - coordinated development of
The Belgrade Development Strategy 2017 is the Citys most the transport system based on the
principles of sustainable mobility
and changing the hierarchy
important strategic document, intended to be comprehensive among the modes of transport;
and to respond to contemporary standards, global agendas and 4. Better and more cost-effective
services for all citizens - high
conditions for the accession to the EU (without being legally quality, economically efficient,
sustainable and affordable
binding). It envisions the City of Belgrade as a competitive, infrastructure services accessible
to all citizens;
sustainable and smart city dedicated to improving the quality of 5. Energy resources as a
life of citizens. The BDS 2017 was drafted and approved development opportunity -
efficiently, economically
stimulating and environmentally
during the same period as the resilience assessment. Given friendly energy supply and energy
this coincidence, we wanted to assess how the Citys desired for citizens and businesses;
6. Sustainable, durable and
development plans strengthened the citys resilience strategy renewable city - protecting and
improving the environment, in
(or not). accordance with European
standards, which makes Belgrade
a sustainable, renewable and
So far, we have mapped 595 actions taking place in Belgrade resilient city;
that relate to its resilience. These include projects, plans, 7. Improved social cohesion -
through the provision of better
initiatives and policies from the City of Belgrade and its social services, social inclusion
and enabling active participation
municipalities, academia, private sector and civil society in civic society
8. Smart administration efficient,
groups. Mapping these actions enables us to diagnose where effective and high quality
provision of services to all users.
the city and its citizens devote their efforts and resources, and
to discover how our integrative cross-sector strategy may build
on them, by coordinating, complementing and advancing their
effects.
As primary objectives
Most common drivers of resilience
- Empowers a broad range of
stakeholders: reflects the City
Governments will to comply with
the EU standards (30).
- Supports livelihood and
employment: shows the need to
face and resolve the direst
problems of the society (25).
- Promotes cohesive and engaged
communities: shows the need to
foster the functioning social
services and to resolve the cultural
Actions sector crisis (25).
595 - Fosters economic prosperity:
shows the desire and actions
planned to create an environment
stimulating economic growth, but
not those directly providing it (4)
- Ensures continuity of critical
services: a response to the ageing
infrastructure problem, as well as
to the recent catastrophic floods
caused by the previous (20).
As secondary objectives
- Maintains and enhances natural
and manmade assets: related to
the everyday operations of the
municipalities (25).
- Empowers a broad range of
stakeholders: results from the
planned actions regarding the
social and cultural infrastructure
Figure 3 Actions Inventory - This diagram shows the distribution of actions in the city in relation to (20).
their (primary and secondary) relationship and relevance to the resilience drivers of the CRF Wheel.
Least common drivers of

resilience
As primary objectives
- Ensures social stability, security
and justice: thematic areas where
the municipality and stakeholders
have little to no jurisdiction at all,
yet show to be the major stress (5).
- Ensures public health services:
the crucial problems of the health
system are under the central
government jurisdiction and local
government has very limited
authority and decision making
regarding them (10).
- Fosters economic prosperity:
very few direct actions (10)
- Promotes leadership and
effective management: showing
very few actions and
interdependencies (10)
As secondary objectives
- Provides reliable communication
and mobility: objectives relying
primarily on direct actions, yet
benefiting from e.g. the upgrade of
public spaces (5)
- Ensures social stability, security
and justice: as in primary
Figure 2 Interdependencies of Actions This diagram shows the level of interdependency between objectives (5)
drivers for each action. The diagram highlights where these interedepenceies are strongest and - Promotes leadership and
weakest. For example: there is a strong link between driver 9 (Provides reliable communication and effective management: as in
Mobility) and driver 7 (Maintains and enhances protective natural and manmade assets) primary objectives (10)

Missing links
The linkage diagram visualizes the interdependencies and links
between the recorded resilience activities, providing useful KEY QUESTIONS
insights into areas of strengths and weaknesses.

- How can the city ensure
stronger interdependencies
The connection between the Provides reliable communication between key drivers of the city?
and mobility and Maintains and enhances natural and - How do these
interdependencies contribute to
manmade assets drivers is the most obvious and expected, as
the challenges faced by the city
are the strong links between the basic needs, protective natural - How can the city respond to its
and manmade assets and critical services, or the livelihood and challenges with relation to
ensuring social stability,
employment, economic prosperity and empowered
security and justice?
stakeholders.
On the contrary, the Ensures social stability, security and

justice driver unsurprisingly shows consistently low
interdependency counts across other drivers given the low
number of coded actions that contribute to it. The non-existent
links between this driver and the Basic needs, Livelihood &
employment and Leadership & management, or between the
Public health and Economic prosperity, and a weak link
between the Economic prosperity and Leadership &
management indicate serious problems in the society as well as
missed opportunities to start resolving them, open up many
questions.
3.3 What we think we are
doing
The actions taken by a city may not always match the
expectations of citizens. The views of citizens and
stakeholders engaged in the resilience interviews, surveys
and group-discussions indicate the need for a greater
focus on critical services, effective management and
integrated planning across the city.
The state of Belgrades resilience can be explained further by

KEY QUESTIONS
the opinions of the citizens of Belgrade engaged in the
workshops, focus groups and questionnaires. These - What do people believe is
perceptions can indicate whether actions taken by the city are happening in the city?
-
matching the expectations coming from citizens although they What does that tell us about
the strengths and weaknesses
are often influenced by the issues discussed during the of the city?
participant workshops: - In what areas does the city
excel, and in what areas is
In general, the stakeholders engaged focused on issues more, work is needed?
relating to continuity of critical services, leadership and - What is the impact of the citys
actions?
management, stakeholder empowerment and long-term and
integrated planning, rating them with an average of Need
to do better to Doing well, but can improve.
The only area rated univocally as Doing well but can

improve, was public health services. This received the
highest opinion rating, but the lowest number of opinions.
The worst rated area, again univocally, is social stability,

security, and justice, and again, with a rather low number of
opinions.
In conclusion, citizens in general believe that the City could
improve its actions in all areas, with a particular need to focus
on critical services, effective management and integrated
planning.

Figure 4 Perceptions Assessment - This diagram shows the perceptions Figure 5 Interdependencies of Perceptions This diagram shows the
of citizens in terms of the citys actions towards each of the CRF drivers. level of interdependency between drivers with regard to the perceptions
Individuals recorded their perceptions along the three-tier spectrum shown assessment. The diagram highlights where these interedepenceies are
above. strongest and weakest. For example: there is a strong link between driver
12 (fosters long term and integrated planning) and driver 10 (promotes
leadership and long-term management) this diagram particularly
highlights where it is perceived that better integration should take place.
Figure 6 Actions + Perceptions Overlay This diagram overlays the

perception data gathered from a range of stakeholders and overlays the
actions data (dotted Line). This diagram shows where there may be
misalignment between actions taken but the city and perceptions of cities
all with regard to the overall challenges and opportunities of the City and
through the CRF. For Example: driver 7 (Maintains and enhances natural
and manmade assets) highlights that this is an area where the city is needs
to do better but there are a number of existing actions taking place.
Overlay of Actions and Perceptions
Comparing the perceptions diagram with the diagram
KEY QUESTIONS
reflecting the mapped actions, we observe some
The comparison between the
differences in the following areas: actions inventory and perception
assessment shows a significant
There are more actions than perceptions in 8 out of 12 discord, leading to questions
areas. These are: Meets basic needs, Supports livelihood such as:
and employment, Ensures public health services, Promotes - How can the differences in
cohesive and engaged communities, Fosters economic what residents perceive as

happening or important be
prosperity, Maintains and enhances protective natural and
explained?
manmade assets, Provides reliable communication and - Where do stakeholders initiate
mobility and empowers a broad range of stakeholders. This their programs and actions?
may be explained by the various ongoing and planned - Are actions useful or impactful
if they are too far removed
activities contained in the Belgrade Development Strategy.
from what residents perceive
There are fewer actions than perceptions in the following as important?
areas: Ensures continuity of critical services, Promotes

leadership & effective management, and Fosters long-term
and integrated planning.
The only area where the number of actions and reactions
coincide is Ensures social stability, security and justice. This
suggests citizens recognize the citys actions, however their
perceptions were negative.
Why do stakeholders in different sectors differ in their

perceptions?
One of the major challenges in developing a
KEY QUESTIONS
comprehensive Resilience Strategy will be synthesizing the
priorities of different stakeholders, and coordinating efforts - Which needs and values are
across different fields of action. perceived as important in
different categories and why?
There is a significant difference in perceptions, ratings and - Do stakeholders communicate
areas of attention across different stakeholder categories and coordinate across the
sectors?
(government, civil sector, academia, and business). They differ
- How to achieve cross-sector
even within the same groups, depending on the format of collaboration in order to
participation and its focus. Some of the participants pointed out amplify the impact of limited
resources in public funds,
the reluctance of some stakeholders to collaborate within
research efforts and social
particular areas. They also identified a need to create specific programs?
bodies that would facilitate their negotiations. Consequently, a
big challenge for building the Belgrade Resilience Strategy will
be the synthesizing of priorities and creating of synergies
between different stakeholders and different fields of action in
projects that promote resilience for all. This leads to a new set
of questions:

Figure 7: Civil Society: all - FGD - interviews
Figure 8: Government: all - FGD - interviews
Figure 9: Business: all - FGD - interviews
3.4 Primary shocks and
stresses
This section analyses the key shocks and stresses facing
Belgrade identified during the stakeholder workshops.
SHOCKS are devastating and catastrophic events that occur

Figure 10: Citizens assesment of the efficiency of
incidentally. Their impact can vary, as well as the portion of the Belgrades urban systems in face of shocks. Source:
Internet survey.
population they influence. Earlier in this report, the chronology
of Belgrades resilience outlines the major shocks Belgrade has
faced throughout its history (Sections XXX, Figure XXX), the
wars and their associated destruction being the most prominent
among them. Belgrade is still not immune to these kinds of
political shocks, but economic crisis and climatic changes are
taking over on the short list of primary shocks that could occur
in Belgrade in the near future.
The shocks were assessed according to their likelihood of
happening, the range of consequences they could cause, and
their connections to the stresses to which Belgrade is or might
be exposed.
Figure 11 Top Shocks Comparison (weighted/Unweighted)

Figure 12 Prioritised Shocks (Weighted/Unweighted) - The diagrams
above have been produced through an assessment of the risk of
potential shocks. The diagram on the left (titled unweighted) highlights
the severity (Low, medium, high) of the risk of priority shocks for the city
of Belgrade. The diagram on the right (titled weighted) highlights the
severity (Low, medium, high) of the risk of priority shocks for the city of
Belgrade relative to their interaction with underlying stresses for the city.
For example: river floods are a critical shock to the city of Belgrade but
when considered in relation to and in conjunction with potential stresses
the risk for the city is much greater.
PRIMARY SHOCKS
River flood (fluvial flood)

Flooding can be considered as a major risk to various systems in Belgrade. In
the past decade, Belgrade has experienced two heavy flooding events. The
catastrophic floods of May 2014 (internationally known as the 2014
Southeast Europe floods), caused by heavy rainfall in Western and Central
Serbia (more than 200 mm of rain in a week, i.e. the equivalent of 3 months
rain under normal conditions), led to a high number of casualties. It resulted in
51 fatalities, 25,000 people evacuated from their homes, and a substantial
damage to the built environment, seriously affecting the regions social and
technical infrastructure and economy. Another major flooding event hit
Belgrade in 2006, caused by snowmelt and heavy precipitation in the Danube,
Sava, Velika Morava and Tisa river basins. Due to the rapid rise of the
Danube and Sava river water levels, 1,000 residents from the Municipality of
Grocka had to be evacuated.
The intensity and severity of floods in the Belgrade region increased over the
past two decades, endangering mostly the areas lying along the Sava and
Danube. In addition to the flood risk related to these two rivers, there are
about 160 smaller torrential streams in the Belgrade area, which pose a
constant threat of flooding to populated areas, with short-term but highly
hazardous effects. The small watershed areas of the Topider and Bari
rivers, Kumodra Stream and others are also particularly susceptible to floods
and stormwater.
Drought and heatwaves

The region of SE Europe is one of most vulnerable regions in the world, with
increasing temperatures surpassing the global average. In spite of the
favorable influence of Belgrades rivers and its green hart and outskirts, the
city registered the highest increase of air temperatures within the Republic of
Serbia for the last 50 years. Consequently, heatwaves in the summer
seriously affect the entire administrative territory of Belgrade. It is most
severely felt in densely populated inner city, where the shortage of vegetation
combined with the proliferation of asphalt and concrete surfaces and reduced
air ventilation intensifies temperatures in a phenomenon known as urban heat
island. The most affected areas of Belgrade include the central municipalities
of Stari Grad, Savski Venac and Vraar, and the densely populated areas of
Novi Beograd, Zemun, Vodovac and ukarica.
The current situation is expected to worsen due to climate change. The

heatwaves, consecutive days when high temperature persists at night, are
double stronger and more frequent than half a century ago, with tendency of
further heating. In long-term we should expect warmer summers (such as
those in 2007, 2012, and 2015) and heat waves (as in 1997, 2000, 2003,
2006, 2007, 2009, 2012 and 2013), which will become common, with more
than 60 tropical days and temperatures above 39C. The most affected urban
systems will be public health, water supply, building stock and all natural
resources.
The droughts were somewhat less frequent and intense compared to heat
waves in the last decades, but they had consequences for the entire
administrative territory of Belgrade. Their alarming increase in length and
frequency towards the end of the 21st century will create additional challenges

for all natural resources, particularly the protection of diminishing peri-urban
agricultural land, forests, biodiversity and ecosystems.
Economic crisis
While facing a continuous economic recession for almost four decades,
Belgrade was extremely prone also to sudden economic blows, related to the
repayment and restructuring of international debts, IMF measure packages,
international embargos, military conflicts, as well as global economic crisis.
External instability and its overflow to Serbia is considered as a major risk for
the economic development of the City of Belgrade, along with different forms
of terrorism in the region and the possibility of military interventions. These
would only contribute to a difficult economic situation. The drought of 2012
and the floods of 2014 had strong impact on the local economy, calling special
attention to the link of economy and climate changes.
Landslides
Due to the specific geologic build of the terrain, morphologic, hydrogeological
and other natural characteristics, as well as the unplanned urbanization,
Belgrade faces a serious hazard of landslides. On the territory of the city,
especially south of the rivers Sava and Danube, there are several areas
where landslides and unstable slopes are present. There are areas affected
by the process of erosion, too. Unfortunately, these areas, unfavorable for
building, are often the sites of illegal construction which additionally causes or
increases the risk. The Cadaster of Landslides and Unstable Slopes registers
1155 landslides, out of which 602 active ones and 248 of high-risk level.
These endanger important structures, including the late Neolithic archaeologic
site of Vina.
Chronic STRESSES can weaken the fabric of a city on a
daily or cyclical basis. Belgrade faces a multitude of stresses,
many of which are directly related to its current economic
condition and its social, political, cultural and urban
degradation. In this context, primary stresses are determined as
the most significant in terms of their potential to inhibit the citys Figure 13: Citizens assesment of Belgrades efficiency in
face of stresses. Source: Internet survey.
resilience.
While shocks acutely endanger human lives and health,
constrain the citys ability to function and the regions economic
activity, chronic stresses can severely impair their development.
In Belgrade, many stresses are already present, and it is
possible that these stresses may escalate (or new stresses
emerge) as side effects of certain future trends. For instance,
the ageing and deficient social and health infrastructure, in
conjunction with the ageing population, make it likely that
unaffordable and inadequate healthcare will grow as a local
stress.
After a thorough review of a long list of potential stresses with
city experts, a series of stresses have been identified as
applying specifically to Belgrade. These were elaborated after
the evaluation of future economic, climatic, social, technological
and demographic scenarios and were based on local and global
trend and data analysis.
Figure 14 Top Stresses Comparison (Weighted/Unweighted)

Figure 15 Prioritised Stresses (Weighted/Unweighted) - The diagrams above have
been produced through an assessment of the risk of potential stresses. The diagram
on the left (titled unweighted) highlights the severity (Low, medium, high) of the risk of
priority stresses for the city of Belgrade. The diagram on the right (titled weighted)
highlights the severity (Low, medium, high) of the risk of priority stresses for the city of
Belgrade relative to their interaction with underlying potential shocks for the city. For
example: poverty and inequality is a critical issue for the city but when considered in
relation to and in conjunction with the potential risk of flooding (shock) poverty and
inequality become of far greater risk and significance.
PRIMARY STRESSES
Poverty/Inequality/Misery
With 25.5% of population living below the national poverty lines (2017), 41.3%
at risk of poverty or social exclusion and two-thirds living in subjective poverty
(2015), Belgrade is the capital of one of the poorest country in Europe. The
conjunction of high poverty, inflation and unemployment rates keeps it also at
the top of world misery rankings (Misery Index is a sum of inflation,
unemployment and lending rates, minus year-on-year per capita GDP
growth). The increasing poverty and inequality in the society, together with the
culture of illegality and the prevalent distrust in the government, constantly
raises the level of discontent amongst citizens. This culminated in protests
following the presidential elections in April 2017, representing a major stress
to be taken into account in the development of Belgrades resilience. Even
though Belgrade is the economic center of Serbia, its population includes high
numbers of urban people in poverty. This situation accentuates all city
problems inaccessibility of jobs, finances, education, culture or subsistence,
which are not just problems of some marginalized groups, but also problems
of the general population. This challenges the direction of development for the
City and calls for people-centered policies and actions and the revival of the
common interest concept.
Demand for health services exceeding supply

Health and primary education are, according to the World Economic Forum's,
Serbias strongest pillar of competitively. The constellation of aging
population, an underfinanced and ageing health system and infrastructure
threaten to change this radically. While the decades of continual health
insurance and care eradicated numerous illnesses, the aging and
impoverishment of the population, constant stress, bomb raids and
impossibility of maintaining healthy lifestyles and diet brought to new
epidemics of high blood pressure, malignant illnesses and geriatric injuries,
and to overstretching of personnel and capacities of the public healthcare
system.
The ageing population is increase demand for health care, as its utilization
almost triples by the time patients reach 65 and over. The healthcare system
is undergoing a crisis due to the reduction of public spending in the sector and
chronical lack of investment and maintenance. For that reason, there is a
significant rise in private sector healthcare, creating an unsustainable burden
for households and risk to care quality. At the same time, the reduced
collection of insurance contributions by the diminishing economically active
population has exacerbated the problem. Taking into account low incomes
and the pension reduction, it appears unlikely that health care costs will be
covered privately. This demands significant improvements in the efficiency
and management of the health care system, with availability and quality as
priorities, and home and palliative care as sectors of development.
Unemployment and lack of diverse livelihood opportunities

Belgrade experiences high levels of unemployment. The unemployment rate
of the metropolitan area is officially 13.9% overall, however some surveys
indicate 18.8%, and administrative method estimates it to cca. 30% (2015). It
doubles dramatically for youth unemployment, making it the poorest portion of
population. As a result, family support is common through adulthood: 67% of
Serbian youth live with their parents, and many households depend on

pensions of their elderly members as the only regular income, further
aggravating the previous stress.
Opportunities for tertiary education are diverse and accessible, but those on
the job market are not. According to the World Bank and World Economy
Forum, Serbia has been, for two decades, the first in the region, and the
second in the world for emigration of educated young people (ranked 137th out
of 138 countries for capacity to retain and attract talent by the WEF's 2016/17
Global Competitiveness Report). Though precise data is not available, the
brain drain keeps increasing. The estimations of total Serbian emigration
ranges from 4.5 to 11 million (compared to the 7.1 million living in the
country), and the number of highly educated people in this emigration has
grown tenfold. The challenges for the city are to activate and support human
talent locally, keep this diaspora network engaged, start transition towards
innovation-driven economy, and attract investments that promote sustainable
growth.
Unclear local identity, lack of social cohesion and

community participation
The long-term economic downfall has influenced Belgrade society in many
respects. On the one hand, it has diminished the budgets assigned for social
development. On the other, the everyday citizens struggle for survival
decreases the time, energy and interest available for social engagement. The
Human Development Index shows increase of social-economic disparities in
Serbia, indicating the increasing influence of these stresses. However, our
survey has shown the deep appreciation our citizens have for civil sector
initiatives that arise from issues of common interest and work in its favor. This
is a challenge the City has both an opportunity and obligation to deal with,
activating all the resources possible in creation of identities and belonging.
This includes public and cultural institutions and spaces, historical and natural
assets, but, above all, the citizens themselves.
3.5 Assets and risks
This section assesses the resilience of the citys key
assets. Priority assets found to be at risk include: cultural
infrastructure, heritage, natural resources, transport
systems, utilities, social infrastructure and building
infrastructure.
Potential risks depend on the frequency and magnitude of the

shock in relation to the vulnerability of the asset itself. The
resilient value of an asset is considered as the ability to absorb
the impact of the shock, as well as the ability to continue to
provide critical services during the time of crisis and in the
aftermath of a shock.
Asset + Shock + Vulnerability = Risk

The mapping of the priority assets of Belgrade revealed the
primary categories at risk were: cultural infrastructure and
heritage, natural assets, transportation systems (especially
railways and waterways) utility infrastructure, social
infrastructure, building infrastructure, public and green spaces.
Risks fall in categories of natural disasters, failure of
infrastructure, or man-caused accidents. The relation building
between assets and risks takes into account the assets
criticality and their vulnerability to the shocks. Besides the
obvious relationships, some indirect and secondary interactions
were revealed.

Figure 16 City Assets the diagram above shows a prioritized list of city assets and highlights
their current condition weighted by criticality. The length of the bar highlights that the asset
requires greater attention. The degree of criticality and attention is divided into 3 key areas of
Management of the assets, the level of service provided and its state of repair.
Figure 17 Asset Vulnerability the image above shows the relative vulnerability of each asset to
Belgrades top shock events. Cultural, heritage and historic facilities along with museums and
railways and waterways remain the most vulnerable assets in beglared and require particular
attention.

CONCLUSION:
DISCOVERY
AREAS
4. Discovery Areas
Drawing on the findings from previous sections,
Section 4 presents the proposed Discovery Areas and
demonstrates their relationship to the wider Resilient
Belgrade Strategy development process.
Overview
The team has given long consideration to the findings captured

in the preceding sections of this report taking into account a)
the underlying and unique context of Belgrade in the 21st
Century, b) the specific shocks and stresses faced by the city
and its inhabitants, c) the wide range of actions that are being
undertaken by the city administration and other stakeholders,
and d) important perceptions about the citys relative strengths
and weaknesses. During the early part of the strategy
development process (Phase II), the team will focus efforts on
deeper, more detailed exploration of some important thematic
areas in which further discovery is necessary. This is in order to
respond effectively and holistically to the urban resilience
challenges identified in this report. The findings and outputs
from these Discovery Areas will be fed into and synthesized in
the Resilient Belgrade Strategy (see Section 1.6 of this report).
This section of the report presents, in concise form, the

proposed Discovery Areas, giving guidance on why they have
been selected. The following sub-section presents an overview
of the Discovery Areas and demonstrates their technical
relationship to the wider strategy development process. The
sub-sections that follow then present each Area in turn. Further
detailed information about the Discovery Areas and the
process for defining them can be found in the Appendix.
Expectations
The Discovery Areas were defined in response to the range of

shocks, stresses and challenges that Belgrade faces. They look
at issues that can be addressed by the City, municipalities and
stakeholders of the city and generate profound impact
answering to recognized challenges. The chronology of key
events in the history of Belgrade, as well as the shocks and
stresses that have afflicted it in the past two centuries, indicate
that the most devastating influences have been anthropogenic -
those caused by men, through the politics and economics, and
that the greatest burden have been carried by men. Therefore,
the focus of our work is on strengthening of Belgradians and on
creating conditions for their creative and civic uplift and
realization through culture, education, arts and science, and for
their spiritual and material well-being and remaining in the
country The team has identified 5 Discovery Areas and 3
additional cross-cutting themes. Each Area is phrased in terms
of a pursuit that will enhance self-knowledge and an
understanding of the links between the systems related to the
area in question.
Excellence in Disaster Risk Reduction and

Management (DRRM) with Climate Resilient Urban
Planning: Delivering tighter integration of long-term
planning and Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management activities
Quality living for all tailor made housing solutions:
Determining the trajectory of resilient housing and
public-service provision in the context of Belgrades
economic transition process.
Cultural Infrastructure for a Social Transition:
Reprogramming urban culture and identity in 21st
Century Belgrade
Understanding the challenges and wider
opportunities arising from renewal of critical energy
infrastructure systems
Urban Innovation Hub: Structuring the future
change-ready talent for Belgrade
Whilst the above areas have a broadly vertical quality (involving

all aspects of the delivery chain from government sponsor or
regulator, to private sector participant to end users and
inhabitants) the cross-cutting themes that follow are broadly
horizontal in quality and may be considered as platforms or
context for the discovery areas.
Data: Wider deployment of spatial and geographical

information systems in resilience building
Governance: Driving effective governance and project /
program delivery
Economy: Enhancing economic stability and agility

Wider deployment of spatial and geographical
information systems in resilience building
A key asset for the city of Belgrade is the diversity of land-use

types across the metropolitan area. The city boundaries contain
a wide range of residential, agricultural and industrial land uses.
Within each major category, there are wide ranges of use-
types. As an example: within the industrial land, uses there are
light industry through to heavy industry. This means that, in
planning terms at least, there are multiple options for initiatives
that can support resilience building. Absent continued
environmental deterioration, there is a wealth of land holdings
that could be deployed in support of food security or deeper
health and wellbeing. Of course, all future initiatives require
funding sources of one description or another and all initiatives
should be seeking greater levels of co-benefit and integration
than previously achieved. A clearly demonstrated method for
delivering such integration is the widespread and open use of
Geographical Information Systems (GIS) - permitting multiple
parties to access common information and data sets for both
the purposes of planning and of evaluation. The mainstreaming
of GIS data use across the city administration is already within
reach and should be delivered in the near term - although the
model for implementing should be considered carefully taking
into account rapidity of delivery, long-term system lock-in and
capacity building within the city staff.
Driving effective governance and project / program

delivery and enhancing economic stability and agility
As has been elaborated in Section 2, Belgrade stands at a

pivotal moment in its likely acceleration from a socialist to
capitalist economy. The resilience diagnostic process has
identified, on the one hand, that there is residual technical
strength in Belgrade's public administration and institutions and,
on the other hand, that the complexity of the city government
frequently renders initiatives and investments harder to deliver
than first anticipated. In spite of multiple efforts to bring forward
governmental reform this process is considered by many to be
too slow and a brake on city progress. Under these
circumstances, it is likely that these two cross-cutting themes
will become pre-eminent. On the one hand there will be the
challenge of developing a deeper resilience to the potential
disruption from increased capital flows, whether running
through the private or public sector and whether invested in
real-estate projects (giving rise to one set of risks) or through
lighter-touch commercial investments (giving risk to a different
set of risks). Potential responses will lie in building more robust
processes and protocols for managing or regulating these
capital flows as well as a more traditional approach of building
teams inside the city (and national) administrations with deeper
experience of handling private sector participation in urban
development. On the other hand it is useful to focus on how
other cities have adjusted their project delivery operations in
order to streamline projects from inception to delivery in a
coordinated manner across different departments - retaining the
initial value and securing the co-benefits - the 'resilience
dividend'.
Figure 1 Discovery Areas Cross-Cutting Themes The diagram above shows how each cross cutting
theme relates to the drivers and sub-drivers of the Resilience Wheel. The wheel also highlights where
there are areas of overlap and useful synergy between the three different cross cutting themes. For
example, the overall overlap between governance, economy and data for both drivers of (Infrastructure
and Environment and Leadership and Strategy) are areas where integration of both discovery areas
and the cross cutting themes would be of great value for the city.

In order to better assess the
degree to which the
proposed Discovery Areas
addressed Belgrades key
resilience issues a simple
CRF-coverage methodology
was deployed.
For each Resilience sub-

driver it was considered
whether the sub-driver would
be supported by a deeper
understanding of the
proposed Discovery Area.
The results are shown in the
adjacent diagram where
each Discovery Area is
represented by a different
colour and the degree of
support is represented by
the intensity of the colour
(50% for indirect support,
100% for direct support).
Excellence in planning and Disaster Risk
Reduction and Management with Climate
Resilient Urban Planning: Delivering tighter
integration of long-term planning and
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
activities
This section considers how a DDRM framework could

improve resilience planning, inter-agency coordination,
and social cohesion, as Belgrade faces hazards such as
flooding, landslides and heat waves.
Initial statement
Climate change has increasing effects around the world, putting

pressure on urban communities from multiple angles. In recent
years, extreme weather events have had damaging effects in
Belgrade, including flooding, heavy storms or heat waves.
Scientists expect the number of such events to continue to
increase, with ever-increasing harm caused to both people and
the built environment.
Evidence base
The 2014 flooding events that occurred in Belgrade highlighted

some of the key gaps within the DRRM systems of the city.
Lack of coordination and low preparedness of the responsible
organisations have meant that emergency activities were
ineffective. Public institutions, NGOs, civil society organisations
were not mobilised and coordinated effectively and thus had
reduced impact on providing shelter and taking part in rescue
operations. Multiple physical flood protection assets were either
not implemented or not maintained adequately prior to the
flood, thus reducing protection of the surrounding areas.
Emergency food and water reserves were also insufficient, or
located in areas affected by the rising groundwater table.
Lack of institutional capacity and methodology to assess

damages and coordinate next steps delayed rebuilding
activities. Financial resources were often not available due to

the large number of uninsured damaged assets and those built
illegally.
A number of geographic information systems (GIS) are

operational at the municipal or national level. Various
departments or organisations manage these systems and are
not interconnected to support a broader DRRM framework, nor
are they linked to monitor land use or planning practices.
Information gathered is generally not shared between
stakeholders, thus limiting the benefits of individual datasets.
Flooding, just like many other man-made or natural disasters

pose great risks in vulnerable geographic areas. To limit the
exposure of the population, it is thus essential for governments
to have the ability to control development in risk prone zones.
The extent of illegal settlements in Belgrade however mean that
people often live in areas that are particularly exposed to
certain shocks. Adequate infrastructure is frequently absent
from such zones, as there might not be room or a municipal
plan to place drainage or transport infrastructure that could
mitigate the negative impacts of a disaster. Effective land use
planning could ensure that new construction does not occur in
danger zones and could also schedule the implementation of
DRR measures to the most critical areas.
In order to maintain an up-to-date and comprehensive DRRM

framework, it is necessary to have an appropriate methodology
for mapping risks and institutions with clear roles and
responsibilities. Currently there is insufficient inter-agency
cooperation within Belgrade, with overlapping jurisdictions. This
makes it difficult to develop solutions, actively engage the
private and civil sectors and to maintain active community
awareness. It also hinders the effective use of available GIS
and IT tools to systematically map and monitor risks.
Excellence in planning and Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management with Climate Resilient Urban Planning: Delivering
tighter integration of long-term planning and Disaster Risk
Reduction and Management activities

Key questions
How can an underlying DRRM framework support

resilience planning in Belgrade?
To deliver effective DRRM, it would be necessary to develop

and enact an appropriate framework and methodology for the
monitoring of risks, analysis of data and decision making. A
methodology would outline the required data to be continuously
collected and monitored by the different agencies to be
compiled in a common platform. Belgrades new Monitoring
Centre could fill the role of a coordinating entity. A DRRM
framework would detail the required protocols according to
which decision makers are to be informed. It would also
highlight the importance of disaster risk financing schemes and
how funds should be collected and distributed in case of an
event.
A DRRM framework that brings together all interlinked urban

issues would support Belgrade in addressing many of its
problems in an integrated manner. Such an approach would
promote resilience planning, as the solutions developed would
emphasis the interdependency of the individual issues and
would focus on resolving them in a holistic manner.
How can DRRM increase inter-agency coordination?
It is important to identify all relevant stakeholders when

implementing a DRRM program, as providing effective solutions
against disasters is in the interest of all parties. Working as set
out by a DRRM framework, relevant stakeholder networks
should be established with clearly outlined roles and
responsibilities. Stakeholders could include both governmental
organisations as well as private or civil society groups where
relevant. Broader public engagement and awareness raising
should also be part of the process.
These stakeholder networks would then be able to carry out

initiatives, implement pilot projects or large scale interventions
based on their combined knowledge and understanding of
certain disaster related issues (such as flooding, urban heat
islands, etc.). The high-importance topic of DRRM could
establish the necessary channels for the different agencies to
cooperate with each other, channels that can remain open to
tackle other issues within Belgrade. Proactive engagement of
stakeholders will reduce overlaps between the scopes of
authorities, bring together and deploy resources more
effectively and enable better information sharing. This would
make Belgrade more resilient to tackle any number of issues in
the future.
How can DRRM strengthen social cohesion in Belgrade?
Public awareness is one of the most important elements of

DRRM. Affected populations need to be informed of the
potential risks to their communities and the mitigation measures
in place to reduce potential disaster impacts. A number of
DRRM measures rely on an increased preparedness of the
community and early warning systems provided by
governmental agencies. To develop trust and strengthen
cooperation between authorities and the community, it is
important to establish clear and easily accessible two-way
communication channels. This way people can share their
concerns and observations, whilst the city can provide
information, encourage certain behavioural changes and
promote citizen responsibilities.
Disaster events bring people together, but it is even more

beneficial to cooperate with communities and resolve potential
problems in advance of any disaster event. This way people will
be able to understand the ways they can support one another
as well as how the authorities can best engage. Stronger social
cohesion will not only increase resilience in specific disaster
events, but will make the community able to respond to a
broader range of challenges.
How can an effective DRRM promote socio-economic

development in Belgrade?
Both natural and man-made disasters can have detrimental

effects on investment flowing into cities if people do not feel that
their assets are protected. Proactive disaster management on
the other hand can assure investors and the general public of
the citys commitment to protect their investments.
Forming part of the 100RC network already communicates

towards the world the importance Belgrade places on resilience
and the resolution of the citys underlying shocks and stresses.
An effective DRRM program could further promote the efforts
the city takes to invest in the safety of its people and
businesses, a message that could bring economic returns.

Figure 2 Discovery Area 1 - Excellence in planning and Disaster Risk Reduction and Management with Climate Resilient Urban
Planning: Delivering tighter integration of long-term planning and Disaster Risk Reduction and Management activities. The diagram
above shows the degree to which the proposed Discovery Area addresses Belgrades key resilience issues. For this diagram a simple
CRF-coverage methodology was deployed. For each Resilience sub-driver it was considered whether the sub-driver would be
supported by a deeper understanding of the proposed Discovery Area. The results shown in the diagram above based on degree of
support. This is represented by the intensity of the colour (50% for indirect support, 100% for direct support).
Through a review of the above diagram it can be seen that Discovery area 1 would particularly contribute to Infrastructure and
Environment as well as fostering long-term integrated planning and meeting basic needs.
Quality living for all tailor made housing
solutions: Determining the trajectory of
resilient housing and public-service
provision in the context of Belgrades
economic transition process.
This section suggests ways in which sustainable and

resilient housing solutions could improve quality of life and
support economic development in Belgrade.
Initial statement
Having access to a safe and affordable home has always been

an imperative for people. The events that defined Belgrades
recent history have created an environment where the
government had less control and influence over housing
provision in the city. The rapid economic and political changes
together with the mass migration to the city have meant that a
large proportion of homes are built illegally and in an unplanned
manner. Today, many young and educated people are forced to
move abroad or stay with their parents as it has become
unaffordable for them to own or rent a house or apartment in
the city.
As a modern capital looking towards economic development,

Belgrade needs to work towards providing a housing option for
all of its inhabitants. In order for it to succeed, the city will need
to truly understand the specifics of the current situation, identify
the priorities of its people and develop solutions to resolve
them.
Evidence base
The main problem regarding housing in Belgrade appears to be

a lack of governmental control and oversight. This is an
underlying factor affecting all facets of the housing issue.
Land use planning is a tool for municipal governments to

proactively regulate, incentivise and manage the growth and
structure of the city. During the rapid population growth periods
in Belgrade (1940s 1970s, 00s), housing provided by the

government was either insufficient or did not match peoples
requirements (people preferred terraced houses to flats). As a
result, much of the new construction occurred in the areas
surrounding the urban centre, in an unplanned and uncontrolled
manner. The scale of this was so large that the process
resulted in having over 40% of housing considered informal
during a 2005 survey. Whilst regulations were in place to
counteract this trend, municipal governments did not have
sufficient resources to act effectively.
The fact that close to half of the city is built informally has a
number of negative effects. Lack of urban planning has meant
that there is often insufficient public infrastructure and public
amenities to serve residents. Whilst much of the growth has
been concentrated along transport corridors, lack of control has
meant that it was challenging to implement further large-scale
infrastructure projects that could have supported a sustainable
growth in and around the city. As people concentrated on
building only residential units, many of the new urban
neighbourhoods lack public facilities such as schools, hospitals
or community centres. Most such facilities are located in the
urban core, where there is often insufficient demand for them,
leaving them closed or underutilised. The necessity for
commute makes it challenging to establish strong communities
and forces people travel long distances for education, work or
medical care.
Lack of governmental control also means that there is

insufficient available information about the socio-economic
characteristics of these residents and their specific needs. This
further limits the ability of public organisations to intervene and
support people in need.
Public or social housing is very limited in Belgrade, as most of

the public housing stock was privatized following the collapse of
the communist government. Since then the government has not
been an active player in provisioning housing, leaving it up to
individuals to finance construction of their homes. Today
approximately 98% of all housing is privately owned in
Belgrade, leaving little to no alternative options for people who
want to settle in the city. The current housing stock does not
provide options required by people without homes, as
apartments within the urban core are too expensive and much
of it is gradually converted into businesses. Immigrants to the
city or the younger generation are thus forced to finance and
construct their own homes that for financial reasons are likely to
be constructed informally.
Rental housing is very limited in Belgrade. It is not a widely

recognized housing solution, making tenants not effectively
protected by enforced regulations.
The municipal government currently lacks the will, capacity and

resources to implement social housing in the city. It is likely that
a large-scale effort, one that would solve the housing needs of
most immigrants to the city, would have to be coordinated with
the central government.
As a result of poor governmental enforcement of housing

regulations and the economic difficulties in Serbia, much of the
building stock is in a poor condition. The funds required to
undertake large-scale refurbishment projects are limited, by
both residents and the municipality, leaving houses exposed to
deterioration. This has effects on the resale value of houses,
but also impacts energy efficiency and operational costs that
directly affect residents.

Quality living for all tailor made housing solutions: Determining
the trajectory of resilient housing and public-service provision in the
context of Belgrades economic transition process.

Key questions
How can a resilient housing solution elevate quality of life

in Belgrade?
To remain an important and developing economic centre of

South-East Europe, Belgrade will have to address its current
housing challenges. A key step towards this will be to establish
a common vision of resilient housing and define how it relates
to the current urbanization & land policy. Through its policies
and actions, the city will have to promote a need for higher
quality of life for all, in both informal areas and the urban core.
Introducing social housing programmes would display this
effort, highlighting the commitment to provide a housing solution
even for the most vulnerable of the city. Introducing and
enforcing minimal standards of urbanization, space
requirements and required public facilities will help to spread
wealth to the broader community, ensuring that people invest in
long-term and valuable assets when they build a home.
How can Belgrade keep up the value of its housing stock?
Long-term value of housing assets will depend on the

continuous maintenance carried out Improving the culture of
living will contribute to both the city and residents taking better
care of their homes. Cooperatives or ownership associations
often lack capacity or resources to carry out the required
maintenance activities. Strengthening their role and legal status
could unlock further potential and increase their effectiveness.
Government programs should also be considered, since low
quality housing affects the entire city, not only the residents.
How can housing sustainability support economic growth?
The city also has a chance to promote environmentally

sustainable and energy-efficient solutions in housing
construction and building maintenance by devising a model for
the promotion and financing of such projects. Construction
constitutes a large part of an economy, hence measured
investment is likely to have direct economic returns. Reducing
overall utility bills will not only help families financially, but
having more disposable income could have positive impacts on
other parts of the economy. Reducing housing energy needs
will also help to address the broader energy question within the
city, allowing it to look at both the supply and demand sides of
the picture.

How can monitoring the housing stock provide insight to
increase social and economic resilience in Belgrade?
To deliver an integrated solution, the municipality will have to

set up the monitoring and evaluation instruments to assess the
existing housing stock and housing needs. By further reviewing
its internal processes, ongoing projects and policies, the
municipality could match the necessary institutional
arrangements and controls with the issues to effectively
promote resilient housing development. By better managing the
existing unused housing stock and municipal land in the city,
there could be a more favourable condition created for market
players to invest in various forms of affordable housing in
central and easily accessible areas.

Figure 3 Discovery Area 2 - Quality living for all tailor made housing solutions: Determining the trajectory of
resilient housing and public-service provision in the context of Belgrades economic transition process.
The diagram above shows the degree to which the proposed Discovery Area addresses Belgrades key resilience
issues. For this diagram, a simple CRF-coverage methodology was deployed. For each Resilience sub-driver it was
considered whether the sub-driver would be supported by a deeper understanding of the proposed Discovery Area.
The results shown in the diagram above are based on degree of support. This is represented by the intensity of the
colour (50% for indirect support, 100% for direct support).
Through a review of the above diagram it can be seen that Discovery area 2 has an overall level of support to most
drivers and sub-drivers. This I not unexpected as it is well understood that the provision of housing solutions in the
city has triggered a number of inherent stresses and underlying challenges for the city and its citizens.

Cultural Infrastructure for a Social
Transition: Reprogramming urban culture
and identity in 21st Century Belgrade
This section asks how Belgrades historical and cultural

identity could be engaged to promote tourism, urban
resilience and social cohesion.
Initial statement
The rivers, nature, people and spirit are what all interlocutors
emphasize as the highest values of Belgrade simultaneously
its least used resources and its greatest stress. They meet in
the cultural and public spaces of Belgrade: outdoor and indoor,
urban and natural ones. Instead of half-century long plans for
the descent of the town to the rivers through mega-projects
and cultural icons that either struggle or fail to get built, resilient
Belgrade should aim to activate, intensify the use and worthily
present the cultural and natural infrastructure and heritage it
already has. This will support a much broader platform for the
social development of the city and its transition to a new, more
equitable society of better informed, more articulate and more
enterprising citizens.
Belgrade is one of rare cities with such an impressive, albeit so
underused spatial capital and didactic potential. Cultural
infrastructure, per definition, comprises cultural and higher
education institutions and public spaces. Such assets should
return to their essential role of public education and create a
coherent narrative of the citys presence and direction in history.
Evidence base
Neglect of Belgrades cultural assets and heritage is apparent
throughout the city. Many of the most important cultural
institutions such as the National Museum and the Museum of
Contemporary Art, have for instance been closed for years.
Further, Belgrades places of memory and identity are
underused or forgotten. This includes sites related to the
heavily endangered world heritage of 7000 years old Vina
culture, the Old Fairground, the Kalemegdan Fortress,
Tamajdan Park or the ruins of the General Military
Headquarters.

Similarly to monuments of national importance, local community
and municipal cultural centres, established during socialism,
have been neglected and disused in recent decades. Lack of
investment in keeping them operational have left many parts of
Belgrade without adequate community facilities for people to
interact, engage and participate in local issues.
Belgrade has not created any new significant urban public
spaces, whether interior or exterior, in the past decades. The
potential of the existing ones, where new practices of
democracy, citizenship, art and design could be scaled up and
meshworked, has been undermined and underused. The
ongoing improvement initiatives (reconstruction of the central
pedestrian area with major squares, redevelopment of the
Friendship Park in New Belgrade, revival of the parts of the
Figure 4 The Great and Small War Islands (enjoying the
Sava waterfront, phased redevelopment of micro urban spaces status of a protected natural property), represent a location
of outstanding features. The Belgrade Urban Masterplan
100 Urban Pockets) are of a similar style. The limited success 2003-2021 for the very first time accords the area the title of
genius loci of the city of Belgrade, or rather, Zemun, which
these projects achieved confirm the need for a different was never highlighted in previous plans. Indirectly, this Plan
also rejects the idea of tapping the water resources on the
approach, including a dynamic cultural programming, urban island itself. Instead, the Plan envisages that Galijska Bara,
curating and citizen urbanism. the waterlogged marshy depression on the Great War
Island, covering an area of 24 hectares, should be preserved
and that the blocked land reclamation channels on the island
Finally, the Danube and Sava rivers including their islands are should be cleaned and deepened.
widely considered to be under utilised natural assets of the city.

In its very core, Belgrade has 210 ha of pure and preserved
nature only on the Great War Island. It has 200 km of
riverbanks1, 16 fluvial islands and several almost unknown
lakes. There are also various urban parks and forest with a
potential to provide a wider range of recreational opportunities
for residents.
1 On the territory of Belgrade, the Danube flows in the length of 60 km

from Stari Banovci to Grocka, while the Sava covers 30 km from Obrenovac
to its intake.

Cultural Infrastructure for a Social Transition: Reprogramming
urban culture and identity in 21st Century Belgrade

Key Questions
How can the revival of Belgrades cultural and historical
assets promote a wider urban resilience?
The meshwork of Belgrades cultural and blue-green
infrastructure can create a unique regional system where the
arts, sciences and technology mix with the nature, sports and
leisure, generating a contemporary identity, quality of life,
knowledge and awareness of the environment. The meshwork
can be seen as a resilience tool: a tool for transformation and
education and a medium for introducing and spreading
contemporary condition and urbanity especially in the illegal
settlements in desperate need of them. In this way, Belgrades
cultural, urban and natural spaces could revive the concept of
community and shared pleasure, and become places for
democracy practices, citizen urbanism and co-creation.
How can the objective of elevating Belgrades cultural
status be implemented to promote tourism?
The unique cultural meshwork would create a framework for
new public and private investments in events, heritage
preservation, arts and integration of the natural environment
into day-to-day life of its residents. It would also be able to
trigger integration of Belgrades natural and cultural assets fully
in the city life. Opening the citys riverfront, islands and urban
parks would promote alternative mobility solutions, including
walking, cycling and even river transportation. It is important to
maximize the advantages of this unique city to make it a world
city in line with the most innovative cultural and urban
principles. Such a comprehensive image would have the
potential to promote the city and increase its competitiveness
and appeal for residents and tourists alike.
How can cultural programs in Belgrade engage its citizens,

promote cultural education and increase social cohesion?
While Belgrade maintains its cultural life and relevance, its
cultural heritage, infrastructure and workers have suffered
seriously from a lack of vision and financing, with far-reaching
consequences that demand systemic solutions, investment and
coordination, i.e. a cultural strategy. Cultural stresses of
Belgrade in the broader sense include the lack of a
contemporary urban identity and the decline of social, moral
and cultural values, of the integrity and citizen spirit of
Belgradians, their educational level and human potential in
general.

The active local independent art scene and examples of cultural
and environmental resilience (the film industry, Museum of
Yugoslav History, Museum of Nikola Tesla, Museum of
Aviation, international festivals etc.) show a great potential
energy waiting to be put in motion. Many other assets, from the
artists, collectors and benefactors legacies and foundations to
the tradition of cultural-artistic associations cultivating folklore,
can contribute to this meshwork, adding it new dimensions.
Our intention, hence, is to inspire and grow engagement,

communication, curiosity and education of the public. Through
opening up new public areas and providing people with
opportunities to express themselves, it is expected that people
can increase their sense of belonging to the city and can
reinforce their relationship with one another. This will support
the citys overarching goal of enabling a higher quality of life,
social cohesion and equity, creativity, entrepreneurship and
innovation in Belgrade. Reprogramming together urban culture
and identity we wish to explore and provide possibilities for a
different life style, return of human dignity and spaces of
freedom broadened through knowledge: to build a cultural
resilience.

1
Discovery
Area 3
Figure 5 Discovery Area 3 - Cultural Infrastructure for a Social Transition: Reprogramming urban
culture and identity in 21st Century Belgrade
The diagram above shows the degree to which the proposed Discovery Area addresses Belgrades
key resilience issues. For this diagram, a simple CRF-coverage methodology was deployed. For each
Resilience sub-driver it was considered whether the sub-driver would be supported by a deeper
understanding of the proposed Discovery Area. The results shown in the diagram above are based on
degree of support. This is represented by the intensity of the colour (50% for indirect support, 100%
for direct support).
Through a review of the above diagram it can be seen that Discovery area 3 has an overall level of
support to most drivers and sub-drivers (In particular Leadership and Strategy and Economy and
Society). This I not unexpected as it is well understood that an integrated approach to culture and
social cohesion in the city can contribute towards a number of inherent stresses and underlying
challenges for both the city and its citizens.

4.4 Discovery Area 4:
Understanding the challenges and wider
opportunities arising from renewal of critical
energy infrastructure systems
This section raises potential opportunities to improve the

resilience of Belgrades energy infrastructure systems.
This includes exploring renewable energy alternatives,
market reforms, institutional instruments and innovative
technologies.
Initial statement
Situated in the humid subtropical climate zone, the climate in

Belgrade is severe: The long heating season runs from mid-
October until mid-April, whilst temperatures in summer can soar
to over 40C.
Renewable energy sources currently contribute approximately

1% of Belgrades energy mix. In addition to enhancing Serbias
role in the path for environmental sustainability and global
climate action, Serbia is encouraged to diversify its energy mix
to help obtain its desired ascension to EU status. The EU works
closely with applicant countries in the development of their new
energy concepts, and clearly outlines the benefits of observing
the EUs sustainable energy principles.
Additionally, A large proportion of Belgrades buildings were

constructed in the boom in the 60s and 70s, which was before
thermal performance regulations. As such, energy efficiency of
the building stock is quite low, and the intensity of energy
consumption is high.
Belgrades district heating system is now one of the largest in

Europe; The majority of the network (86%) is run on natural gas
(making it vulnerable to supply blockades) with the rest
powered by fuel boilers. The ageing system is thought to be
unable to cope with the burgeoning demands of the growing
population (noticeable peak loading on the electricity grid during
the heating season).

Evidence base
Diversification of Belgrade's energy supply is a critical step

towards building resilience for the city and ensuring the city is
on the pathway to climate adaptation. The need for diversity in
energy sources on the one hand and the need for diversity in
the energy networks themselves on the other are understood as
distinct issues, which not all interventions would address.
As mentioned above belgrades diversification of its energy mix

also contributes toward its desired ascension to EU status. Key
accession conditions include: third party ownership of energy
transmission infrastructure; security for energy suppliers;
reduced dependence on energy imports by suggesting target of
27% of energy consumption to come from renewable sources;
40% less greenhouse gas emissions than 1990 by 2030. Serbia
should ensure its planned investments align with EU directives.
Current investments and interventions in the energy sector

include a range of actions addressing some of Belgrade's
structural challenges as well as more routine maintenance and
upgrading programmes. There is wide acknowledgement that
much of the city's built structures have very poor energy
performance and some initiatives have been launched to
reduce the necessary energy required for space heating. These
projects are, however, diverse and uncoordinated - although the
obtainable energy savings are significant.
Dominant source of potential shocks in the city are likely to

arise from anthropogenic activities rather than natural or
climatic hazards. Such shocks, in the direct sense could arise
from human error in the management of the energy production
facilities or as a result of deliberate fuel blockades arising from
geopolitical manoeuvring (in Jan 2009 Belgrade faced severe
energy shortages for approximately 2 weeks due to the closure
of the Russia-Ukraine pipelines over a legal dispute). In an
indirect sense, the 2014 flood event, which placed the operation
of the TENT power station at risk (and impacted on its long term
fuel supply) can be attributed to poor management of
waterways in this area rather than freak weather conditions.

Key questions
How can Belgrade reduce its dependence on external

energy sources by fostering renewable energy usage?
Could a potential upscale/upgrade of the ongoing portfolio of

efficient energy-production facilities contribute towards this? As
mentioned above, in light of the current energy supply context,
the EU requirements and Global commitment to combat climate
change the future energy landscape requires significant reform
to adapt. Relieving dependence on external energy sources
should involve two key steps:
Reduce dependence on Russian natural gas.

Increase contribution of local renewable energy
Belgrades future energy landscape will be one without reliance

on a sole provider of natural gas. Belgrade must also increase
the proportion of alternative energy sources contributing to the
mix to minimise reliance on natural gas in general. This is
achieved by through increased contribution of renewables
whilst reducing total demand.
This transition must occur but it will be gradual. Serbia therefore

also needs to address its reliance on a singular foreign source
of natural gas.
With regard to increasing contribution of local renewable

energy, in order to align with EU directives, 27% of Serbias
energy mix should be generated from renewable sources. As
the capital city, Belgrade should be leading on this issue.
Progress will be dependent on the development of Solar PV,
Geothermal and Biogas. Solar PV, Hydro Geothermal and
Biogas are all viable and suitable options for Belgrade.
What are the necessary institutional arrangements to

create the opportunity for market reform to enable future
smart energy systems and sources?
It is critical to create a thriving, self-sustaining market for

energy efficiency upgrades and renewable energy generation.
There are however significant market barriers which prevent
investments in clean energy, even when it is in the building
owners / occupants economic interest. The city must be
responsible for identifying and then either reducing or removing
these barriers. A dynamic and self-sustaining market for energy
efficiency and renewable energy is the foundation for future

sustainability and resilience, where benefits are equitably
shared with the local workforce positioned to access new jobs
and economic opportunities. For example, could application of
resilience analytics on the phasing of the reconstruction of the
thermal-pipeline network between the reconstructed substation
and the thermal power plants help towards a better
understanding of market reform? Additionally, does Serbia need
a reformed training for its next generation of building operators?
and, should there be refined and renewed Green Building and
Energy codes and stronger attempts for their enforcement?
What is Belgrades strategic approach toward technical

transition of existing assets to enable and develop
innovative technology and ultimately deliver efficiency?
Enabling and developing cutting edge technology to modernise

and deliver efficiency within the current infrastructure system for
Belgrade is both complex and fascinating. The following key
areas require particular attention in order to achieve this.
Building demand management

Efficiency of supply
Demand Side Response + Smart Systems
Demand management can be achieved through availability of

energy consumption data and enabled by an understanding of
where and when energy is consumed. With better
management, Belgrades homes and workplaces will require
less energy for heating, cooling and power, as upgrades
focussed on efficiency are driven by financial benefits.
Similarly, the large-scale redevelopment of Belgrade building

stock offers opportunity to install / upgrade the existing district
heat networks and plan for decarbonisation. Investment is
required to resolve the issues of existing heat networks as well
as for the installation of new networks. New co-generation
plants will add further capacity. The network will allow for billing
based on actual consumption, which is not in place currently.
This would encourage investment in improvements in building
performance. Suitable investment and financing opportunities
must be considered.
Furthermore, Belgrade authorities need to incentivise and

encourage the local Demand Side Response (DSR) industry. A
strong DSR industry encourages investment in a decentralised
generation and reduces demand peaks. A flatter demand curve
enables renewable sources to contribute a greater proportion of

the energy mix. Decentralised generation minimises risk of
large scale supply disruption. A demand side response industry
requires a well-managed and regulated transmission
infrastructure. This is currently difficult in Belgrade where a key
issue for the power system is the segregation of ownership.
What institutional instruments should be implemented to

support energy accessibility and affordability and end
energy poverty?
From a policy point of view, the affordability of future tariff

increases is more relevant than the affordability of current
consumption. Residential tariffs have risen sharply over the last
few years, but tariff reform remains one of the most important
regulatory challenges. Regulators and policy makers need to
know what the social impact of these reforms will be, and by
implication what amount of social protection will be needed.
Simulations of the affordability impact of future tariff
adjustments can provide important information in this respect.
An alternative way of looking at affordability is to study specific

groups of vulnerable consumers, rather than income deciles.
Many of the households included in the bottom income deciles
are in fact pensioners, the unemployed and people living on
various kinds of social benefits. However, since these groups
are of particular concern on social policy grounds it may be
instructive to focus on them in some more detail and
incorporate this with other issues concerning these vulnerable
groups.

Figure 6 Discovery Areas 4 Understanding the challenges and wider opportunities arising from renewal of critical energy infrastructure
systems.
The diagram above shows the degree to which the proposed Discovery Area addresses Belgrades key resilience issues. For this
diagram, a simple CRF-coverage methodology was deployed. For each Resilience sub-driver it was considered whether the sub-
driver would be supported by a deeper understanding of the proposed Discovery Area. The results shown in the diagram above are
based on degree of support. This is represented by the intensity of the colour (50% for indirect support, 100% for direct support).
Through a review of the above diagram, it can be seen that Discovery area 4 particularly supports the Environment and Infrastructure
driver along with a number of other sub-drivers across a range of drivers. It is important to think about the long term health benefits
of this discovery area for citizens.

Urban Innovation Hub: Structuring the
future change-ready talent for Belgrade
This section explores the conditions required to foster

innovation in Belgrade and considers the collaborations
between government, business, academic and members of
the public that could foster the forward-thinking ideas to
future-proof Belgrade.
Initial statement
Investing more in research, innovation, and entrepreneurship is

at the heart of Europe 2020 and considered a successful
method for achieving sustainable and resilient growth. As
identified in this study Belgrade is witnessing a number of
complex social, economic pressures these pressures raise
complex and multi-facetted challenges that can only be tackled
by collaborative and distributed innovation development
processes.
However, theoretical frameworks that assess such

collaborations are often very conceptual, with little focus on the
actual governance mechanisms that facilitate them. Therefore
an approach for an inter-organizational design and multi-
stakeholder innovation development process can be proposed
to organise and govern the state of resilience, innovation,
sustainability, education, economy and society in belgarde. The
approach should focus on concepts of innovation democracy,
knowledge production and innovation ecosystem as a means of
responding to governmental and societal subsystems, and
socio-economic transitions.
This requires a structured environment that should ideally be

set up colaboratively by relevant and carefully selected
stakeholders (i.e. Universities, NGOs, Governments and Private
Sector). Such an environment should be spatially tailored (i.e.
physical or virtual) on the basis of the type of information to be
shared, objectives and impact to be achieved and the type of
stakeholders to be involved. A great degree of understanding
regarding the current status of economy, education and public

administration in Belgrade is required to ensure this operation is
impactful and cross cutting.
The potential for a smart and resilient urban innovation in

Belgrade can create a win-win situation between environment,
knowledge and innovation, creating synergies between
economy and society.
Evidence base
Co-creation and institutional reform: The lack of capacities to

implement significant and much needed government and
administrative reform along with the unused potential of
Universities and Institutions, fragmented market for innovative
products and services further highlights the need to respond to
the weak linkage of efforts between local authority staff,
academia, industry and civil-society organizations. Additionally,
in this context understanding, the sustainable development of a
knowledge economy requires coevolution with the knowledge
society.
Capitalising in the human capital: Furthermore, a small

number of local companies mainly in IT compete in the
global market, and a somewhat larger but still small number
of companies in sectors such as banking or telecoms have
been established with the participation of foreign capital to
serve local and regional markets. However, over three quarters
of the citys workforce have do not participate actively in these
sectors of the economy: 30% work in low-skilled services such
as retail, transport, and accommodation; 25% work in the public
sector; 22% work in agriculture and industry. Only 15% work in
higher-skill services, and a further 5% and 3% work in IT and
finance/insurance, respectively.
Capitalizing on culture: In cities with a strong cultural heritage

and historic architecture of which Belgrade is one culture
can help kick-start economic transformation by attracting
attention to the city from the outside. However, this cannot
replace an economic transformation program it rather needs
to work together with it. Especially when it comes to capitalizing
on culture, cities should make sure to not become generic
mid-rise glass office blocks do not carry much potential for
excitement. Strong historic preservation laws can help protect
what is already distinctive; architectural competitions can help
create novelty that goes beyond the banal. While seemingly
disparate to the concept of an innovation Hub, it is important to
note that in order to create an attractive and encouraging

environment for exchange and innovation the necessary
platform should be protected and provided.
This requirement for educational and institutional reform; fight

for retention of human capital, coupled with the much agreed
upon need for a transformative approach to Belgrades future
economic trajectory, needs a careful review. Much of what has
been highlighted throughout this study refers to a need for
better innformation sharing among spheres both in terms of
provision of ideas or expression of know-how.
Since concentration of assets has a leading role in fostering

innovation and soft assets such as science/technology-based
knowledge and creative knowledge grows through interaction,
policy actions should be focused on improving the connectivity
of actors (i.e. social inclusion). Critical mass in knowledge can
also be achieved outside of the physical dimension of assets
and through better mobilisation and integration of social and
policy interactions.

Key Questions
What should be the 'Belgrade model' for an urban

innovation hub, and how can it best enable long-term
resilience building in the city?
The Triple Helix innovation model focuses on university-

industry-government relations. The Quadruple Helix embeds
the Triple Helix by adding as a fourth helix the media-based
and culture-based public and civil society. The Triple Helix
acknowledges explicitly the importance of higher education for
innovation. However, in one line of interpretation it could be
argued that the Triple Helix places the emphasis on knowledge
production and innovation in the economy so it is compatible
with the knowledge economy. The Quadruple Helix already
encourages the perspective of the knowledge society, and
of knowledge democracy for knowledge production and
innovation. EU funds aimed at increasing research and
innovation through cross-border co-operation (e.g. H2020)
should be considered to support such initiatives
What are the possible alternatives for strengthening

government capacities trough partnership and
collaboration with academia, industry and civil sector?
Fostering direct contribution of universities towards innovation

requires an effective implementation strategy and needs
improvement of interaction opportunities where high value
knowledge produced by universities (already innovation-
oriented) can be properly transferred to the industry,
government and civil society spheres. The operation of this
initiative should be incremental and impact testing should be
carried out at relevant intervals. This may be fostered through
an effective sharing platform among administrations of concrete
and successful experiences (good practices) and evidence, or
by the involvement of organisational innovation professionals of
change in the modernisation process of public administrations.
How can Belgrade activate and encourage the social and

cultural change required to implement such an initiative?
The unstructured, flexible and autonomous nature of social

innovation makes it less connected to the structural conditions
and strategic assets of a region. Hence, social innovation2
2 Social Innovation: Although social entrepreneurship and social enterprise have become popular
rallying points for those trying to improve the world, social change can happen outside of them. These
two notions are positive ones, but neither is adequate when it comes to understanding and creating

offers opportunities for cross-border co-operation and networks
creation to boost exchange of ideas and should be considered
by less innovative regions and sectors as a way out of path-
dependencies and lock-in conditions in socio-economic growth.
Learning form the emergence of the technology and start up

eco-system and the major fluctuations in the creative sectors
globally, the city should find the mechanism available to invest
in retaining and flourishing human talent. Allowing time for
experimentation and innovation to emerge and provide the
supporting mechanisms for growth of emerging sectors. The
urban innovation hub should encompass the agility required to
adapt to the fast changing technology and socio-economic
environment.
Identification and sharing of successful evidence across

territorial authorities, rather than in an academic or theoretical
manner is essential in supporting this process. Examples of
such evidence include best practices, well-functioning
mechanisms for effective interaction, and blooming of attitude-
change approaches. If possible, the positive territorial impact
derived from the application of the helix models should also be
highlighted. Civil society engagement has to be intended as an
innovation boosting factor if properly integrated in a helix-based
strategy. The innovative potential of civil society is widespread
across sectors, does not require long-term investments and is
ready-to-use. where the technological paradigm is still not
applicable, the inclusion of civil society in the innovation
process impacts favourably by promoting consensus in
policymaking.
social change. In fact, social innovation is a better vehicle. Social innovation focuses attention on the
ideas and solutions that create social value as well as the processes through which they are
generated, not just on individuals and organizations.

Figure 7 Discovery Area 5 - Urban Innovation Hub: Structuring the future change-ready talent for Belgrade.
The diagram above shows the degree to which the proposed Discovery Area addresses Belgrades key resilience issues. For
this diagram, a simple CRF-coverage methodology was deployed. For each Resilience sub-driver it was considered whether
the sub-driver would be supported by a deeper understanding of the proposed Discovery Area. The results shown in the
diagram above are based on degree of support. This is represented by the intensity of the colour (50% for indirect support,
100% for direct support).
Through a review of the above diagram, it can be seen that Discovery area 5 particularly supports the Leadership and Strategy
driver along with a number of other sub-drivers across a range of drivers (in particular meeting basic needs, supporting
livelihoods and employment and fostering economic prosperity. It is important to think about the long term impact of this
discovery area on the following areas: economy, social cohesion, education, leadership and social cohesion.

4.6 Closing Remarks and
Next Steps
The multi-stakeholder collaborations involved in Phase I of
the Resilient Belgrade Strategy are highlighted. Phase II
will continue to engage these stakeholders in order to
investigate the themes emerging from the five Discovery
Areas in greater depth.
Multi-stakeholder collaboration is a fundamental value the City

of Belgrade considers as basic component for building
resilience in the city. From the beginning of Phase I, a number
of collaborations were formed with academic organizations, the
private sector, youth groups and experts both locally and
internationally.
The collaborations included co-organization of workshops and

seminars, consultation sessions, sharing of science and data,
risk and hazard assessment studies.
In Phase II, in the context of the working groups that will be

formed from the further development of the Discovery Areas
collaborations will multiply in an effort to create a common
approach and strategy for the city with the active participation of
the different stakeholders.
Finally, priority of the city is to develop synergies with

institutions and experts outside of Serbia and especially the
Serbian Diaspora that has shown eagerness to facilitate and
promote Belgrades initiative towards building resilience in the
city.

Figure 8 Overall Results from Discovery Areas The following diagram shows the aggregated results from
the various discovery areas. This helps highlight where discovery areas may not be supporting the full spectrum
of the city components and consequently should this be an area of challenge for the city, it is important that
those component are considered and appropriately integrated. The diagram above highlights an apparent gap
in the level of support by the proposed discovery areas towards responding to law enforcement. It is important
that this issue is considered and responded to through the cross cutting themes and other relevant initiatives
within the city.

100RC Belgrade PRA May17

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100RC Belgrade PRA May17

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BELGRADE

Goran Radulovi, Chief Resilience Officer

Stana Kravarui Mladenovi

Buro Happold Belgrade team:

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ksenija Lalovi, Senior Urban Resilience Consultant

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mila Nikoli, Senior Urban Resilience Consultant

Buro Happold London team:

Henry Fletcher, Associate Director

Mehrnaz Ghojeh. Senior Consultant

Address: Palata Beograd, Masarikova 5, 10th floor, 11000 Belgrade

2. Belgrade, at the seams of time and space 10

2.1 Resilience Timeline

3.1 Designing an Innovative Engagement Process

100 Resilient Cities | iii

4.1 Discovery Area 1

Belgrade has begun establishing its urban resilience strategy by

Resilience is the capacity of individuals, communities,

Resilience has emerged as an overarching concept within

100 Resilient Cities | 3

Figure 2: Qualities of resilient systems

Figure 2: 100 Resilient Cities world map

100 Resilient Cities | 5

Purpose and Objectives

Figure 3: Flooding extent of the 2014 Floods, Belgrade.

Resilience Strategy Development

The Resilience Strategy serves as a dynamic roadmap to build

Phase 1 serves to gather, analyze and understand the

Phase 2 is intended to formulate the city resilience

100 Resilient Cities | 7

Figure 4: Resilience Strategy Development Process [2]

Describes the work completed to date to build a baseline of

This report follows the 100 RC methodology and summarizes

100 Resilient Cities | 9

Belgrade is the capital of Serbia and the former capital of

Figure 1: Resilient Belgrade; Ivan Metrovis statue of Victor on Kalemegdan is a

The settlement that is modern-day Belgrade has existed for

Figure 2: Figurines of deities found in Vina, 5000 BC

In the hospitable basin of the Danube, Sava, Tami and Tisa,

100 Resilient Cities | 11

Figure 3: The battle for Belgrade in 1717.

Control of the Serbian peninsula changed hands several times

100 Resilient Cities | 13

100 Resilient Cities | 15

* Cultural, architectural and engineering symbols of

Belgradians hold great respect for their

During this time, Belgrade did not give up on its ambitions. In

Figure 7: GDP growth and fall in Yugoslavia

Belgrades recent history is characterised by social unrest

Queue for bread

100 Resilient Cities | 19

The largest informal settlements of Europe grew in Belgrade.

Hooligans raging. Student protests in 1996-97 the peaceful walks.

NATO bombing in 1999. Bombs with depleted uranium were used.

5th October 2000

100 Resilient Cities | 21

In spite of a period of relative stability, Belgrades

Culture shut down (2002-now),

floods (2012, 2014), freezing (1941-42, 2016-17),

100 Resilient Cities | 23

cooperation across Serbia and Europe,

Figure 8. Regional transport connections

The spatial development of the City of Belgrade is directed

100 Resilient Cities | 25