Final Report of Telephone Survey of Warren, Barren, Simpson, Monroe,

and Christian County Residents

Conducted on Behalf of Travis Lock for the
Case of the Commonwealth of Kentucky v. Timothy W. Madden
Allen Circuit Court, Indictment No. 15-CR-00129

Dr. Joel Turner

Associate Professor of Political Science
Director of the WKU Social Science Research Center
1906 College Heights Blvd. # 11060
Western Kentucky University
(270) 745-2728
Email: joel.turner@wku.edu

Part 1: Introduction

This telephone survey was conducted by Dr. Joel Turner from the Department of Political
Science at Western Kentucky Universitys Social Science Research Center (SSRC) on behalf of
Mr. Travis Lock.

A random sample of Warren, Barren, Simpson, Monroe, and Christian County residents were
contacted and asked to participate in this project. These households were contacted from 10
AM-8 PM between September 25 and October 8. Participation in this study was voluntary per
the ethical standards of human subjects research and done in accordance with the standards set
forth by the American Society of Trial Consultants. Moreover, personal identifiers, such as
names, dates of birth, and/or social security numbers were not collected for this research. The
Institutional Review Board at Western Kentucky University approved the data collection
protocol for this project. Each residence was contacted one time during the calling period.
Numbers were randomized before each calling session to ensure randomness within the call list.

A total of 725 respondents agreed to participate in our study. Respondents had to complete a
screening process ensuring that they were eligible to serve on a jury in each county. In order to
be eligible, respondents had to answer yes to each of the following questions: 1. Are you over
the age of 18? 2. Do you have a Kentucky Drivers license? 3. Are you registered to vote in
Warren, Barren, Simpson, Monroe, or Christian County? Respondents who met our criteria were
asked additional questions on the survey instrument (attached hereto) measuring (1) their
knowledge of the Madden case, (2) their current opinion of Mr. Maddens guilt or innocence, (3)
media exposure, and (4) various demographic characteristics. The results of the study are
discussed in detail below.

Part 2: Scientific Sample of Respondents

The random sample utilized for this study was acquired from Survey Sampling International
(SSI), a leader in providing random samples in the telephone survey industry. SSI previously
provided numbers which allowed for the creation of a random sample of the counties under
examination. The numbers that were provided by SSI emerged from a Random Digit Dialing
(RDD) and abided by the following assumptions:

60% of the overall completions should come from landlines, while 40% should come
from cell users
15% response rate from landlines, 10% response rate from cell phones

There are two primary advantages to using the list provided by SSI as opposed to simply
randomly choosing numbers from the local telephone directory. First, using the phone book does
not provide access to residents who have unlisted numbers. Second, and perhaps more important
given changes in both technology and societal norms, using a phone book does not provide
access to those who are cell only and no longer possess a land line. Both of these problems can
result in biased results from a phone book generated sample. Fortunately, this sample addresses
both of these concerns. Because these numbers are randomly generated we no longer have to
worry about not being able to reach those with unlisted numbers. Secondly, this process allows
us to reach cell users in a way that reliance on the phone book does not allow.

It is important to note this sampling process is not perfect. One drawback is that some of the
numbers generated may be bad in that they have been disconnected, belong to a business, or
may not be currently assigned to an individual. This has to be taken into consideration during
the sampling process but is certainly not cause for alarm. Another potential problem involves
cell phone sampling. Many individuals keep their cell phone number after moving into or from
an area. Individuals who purchased a cell phone locally, but who no longer reside in the counties
under examination, could be selected and included in the sample that utilized RDD. The
individual in this example would never appear in a jury pool, yet, they could be selected for the
sample because they have a three-digit prefix that is consistent with the area under examination.
Although this is time consuming to deal with, I ultimately contend this is not a significant
problem because they would be eliminated from the sample via our screening process.

Participation in this survey was voluntary, and personal identifiers (names, social security
numbers, dates of birth) were not collected to ensure anonymity and confidentiality of responses.
Each respondent who was qualified to participate in this study provided answers to questions that
measure their chances of appearing in a jury pool, the type of news media they are exposed to,
their knowledge of Mr. Madden and Ms. Doolin, and the charges that have been brought against
Mr. Madden. The survey also included a question measuring the extent to which respondents
have formulated an opinion of Mr. Maddens guilt or innocence. Finally, we asked several
questions to assess the level of representativeness of our sample, including each respondents
educational level, age and gender.

725 residents agreed to participate in our study, with respondents distributed fairly evenly across
the counties under examination. Given that the population of the counties under examination,
and assuming a 95% confidence level, this sample size yields a confidence interval (margin of
error) for the sample of +/- 7.5 to 8.0% per county. In laymens terms, this means that there is a
95% probability that the opinions expressed by the sample of are within +/- 7.5 8.0% of the
opinions of all adult residents in each specific county under examination.

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The demographics of the sample are consistent with those of the region. The median age of our
sample, 42, is consistent with the median ages of Barren, Monroe, and Simpson counties, and
just slightly older than that of Warren and Christian counties. The level of gender and racial
diversity in our sample is similar to that which we would find in the counties under examination.
Our sample has a slightly higher educational attainment and a slightly higher income that the
average resident in these counties. However, this difference is not significant, and is likely
attributable to graduates in this region being more likely to participate in a survey conducted by
Western Kentucky University than one conducted by a federal agency they are less familiar with.

Part 3: Results

Response Rate: Table 1 shows the results of phone calls made to prospective jurors in the
counties under examination. As noted in the table, 8% of those selected for our sample agreed to
participate in this research project by completing the survey instrument, 42% refused to
participate, and 28% never answered the telephone after seven attempts to contact the residence.
The remaining 22% represent disconnected phone lines or fax machines.

Table 1: Results showing the response/completion rate and refusal rate for the telephone survey
__
Result of Phone Sample
Call Size Percentage

Completed 725 8%

Refused 3809 42%

No Answer 2539 28%

Disconnected/Other 1995 22%

Total 9068 100%

County Breakdown: As Table 2 illustrates, respondents are distributed fairly evenly across the
five counties under examination.

Table 2: Participants by County

Warren 150

Simpson 144

Monroe 145

Barren 142

Christian 144

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Case Awareness: The survey included three questions designed to capture respondents
knowledge of the case and the degree to which they have formulated an opinion of Mr.
Maddens guilt or innocence. Table 3 summarizes the information gathered from the survey.

Table 3: Respondents Knowledge of the Madden Case

___
Yes No Dont
know
a. Respondent has heard of Mr. Timothy Madden
Warren 65% 19% 16%
Barren 58% 32% 10%
Simpson 52% 37% 11%
Monroe 55% 34% 12%
Christian 15% 67% 18%

b. Respondent has heard of Ms. Gabbi Doolin

Warren 71% 13% 16%
Barren 65% 26% 9%
Simpson 58% 32% 10%
Monroe 59% 24% 17%
Christian 19% 63% 18%

c. Respondent knows that Mr. Madden has been

charged in the murder of Ms. Doolin
Warren 69% 15% 16%
Barren 63% 26% 11%
Simpson 57% 33% 10%
Monroe 59% 30% 11%
Christian 18% 64% 18%

There is significant awareness of the case in four of the five counties under examination. In
Warren, Barren, Simpson, and Monroe, a majority of the respondents indicated they had heard of
Mr. Timothy Madden, and a slightly larger majority indicated that they had heard of Ms. Gabbi
Doolin, and that they were aware that Mr. Madden had been charged with the murder of Ms.
Doolin. The one county where this is not the case is Christian County, where our results indicate
that there is not widespread awareness of the individuals involved in this case.

Perceptions of Guilt/Innocence: Respondents were also asked two questions regarding their
perception of Mr. Maddens guilt or innocence with regard to this crime. The first question
simply asked whether the respondent thought Mr. Madden was guilty or innocent of the murder
of Ms. Doolin. The results are presented in Table 4.

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Table 4: Perceptions of Guilt of Mr. Madden
___
Yes No Dont
know
Respondent believes Mr. Madden is guilty of the murder
of Ms. Doolin
Warren 56% 9% 35%
Barren 48% 6% 46%
Simpson 48% 10% 42%
Monroe 43% 18% 39%
Christian 11% 4% 85%

As Table 4 illustrates, a majority of our respondents in Warren County, and a plurality of our
respondents in Simpson, Barren, and Monroe counties believed Mr. Madden was guilty of the
murder of Ms. Doolin. Additionally, when the yes and no responses are combined, it illustrates
that a majority of respondents have already prejudged the case without knowledge of the facts
presented in a courtroom setting. Once again, Christian County is the only country in which the
overwhelming majority of respondents have not prejudged the case.

To probe perceptions of Maddens guilt more deeply, we posed a follow-up question to the
respondents who indicated they thought he was guilty about their level of certainty. Specifically,
we asked if they thought Mr. Madden was definitely guilty or probably guilty of the murder of
Ms. Doolin. The results are demonstrated in Table 5.

Table 5: Certainty of Guilt/Innocence in Madden case1

Def Prob
Guilty Guilty__
a. Do you believe Mr. Madden is definitely guilty or
probably guilty of this crime?
Warren 84% 16%
Barren 73% 27%
Simpson 78% 22%
Monroe 76% 24%
Christian 75% 25%

As Table 5 illustrates, across all counties the overwhelming majority of those who responded to
this question indicated that they thought Mr. Madden was definitely guilty of this crime. The
across county average was 78%, ranging from a low of 73% holding that belief in Barren County
to a high of 84% holding that belief in Warren County. What we can glean from this is that a
plurality of respondents believe Mr. Madden is guilty of this crime, and an overwhelming
majority of those who believe he is guilty are certain of his guilt.

1
This question was only asked of the respondents in each county who indicated they believed that Mr. Madden was
guilty of the murder of Ms. Doolin.

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Media Consumption and Assessment: We included several questions on the survey instrument
designed to measure the respondents type of local media exposure as well as their perceptions of
media coverage. First, we asked respondents what type of media they received information
regarding the Madden case from.

Table 6. Source of media information regarding Madden case

Television 29%

Newspaper 6%

Social Media 18%

No Coverage Accessed 47%

The dominant medium which people received their information from was television, which is not
surprising. However, a significant number of people who received information about this case
got it via social media, such as Facebook and Twitter. If we remove Christian County, where
little information was received about the case, from the analysis, in the remaining counties 38%
received information from television, 9% received information via newspaper, and 25% received
information from social media.

During each telephone interview, we asked respondents to indicate whether they thought local
media coverage favored the prosecution, the defense, or was neutral. Table 7 illustrates these
responses.

Table 7: Local news media coverage of this case has favored.

Prosecution 72%

Defense 14%

Been Neutral 14%

According to Table 7 the overwhelming perception among respondents is that local media
coverage of this case has favored the prosecution. Nearly three-quarters of our respondents
indicated they believed that the coverage favored the prosecution, while 14% indicated that
coverage either favored the defense or had been neutral, respectively.

Media and Perceptions of Guilt: In Table 8 we examine the connection between types of
media accessed and perceptions of guilt.

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Table 8. Type of media consumed by perceptions of Maddens guilt

Yes No Dont
know

Television 63% 18% 19%

Newspaper 65% 20% 15%

Social Media 68% 20% 12%

Table 8 illustrates a strong connection between perceptions of guilt and type of media consumed
across all types of media. Whether an individuals primary mechanism of learning about the
case was television, newspaper, or social media, the overwhelming perception is that Madden is
guilty. This reinforces the idea that the public perceives the media to be biased against Madden,
but also illustrates the ability of local television and newspaper to expand their influence to
surrounding areas by linking articles via social media.

Discussion of the case: Respondents were also asked whether they had spoken about the case
with friends, family, or co-workers. The results are presented in Table 9.

Table 9: Case Discussion

___
Yes No Dont
know
Have you discussed case with friends, family, or co-workers?
Warren 53% 41% 9%
Barren 48% 39% 13%
Simpson 43% 35% 22%
Monroe 42% 35% 23%
Christian 15% 57% 28%

As Table 9 illustrates, a plurality of our respondents in Warren, Barren, Simpson, and Monroe
counties discussed this case with friends, family, or co-workers. In each of these counties at
least 42% of respondents discussed the case, with a high of 53% in Warren County. Discussion
was relatively low in Christian County, which is consistent with the lack of media attention the
case received there as well as with the relatively low level of awareness about the case overall
there. As a follow up, we examined the relationship between perceptions of Mr. Maddens guilt
or innocence and respondent propensity to discuss the case. These results are featured in Table
10.

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Table 10: Case Discussion and Perceptions of Guilt/Innocence
___
Yes No Dont
know
Discussion among those who believe guilty 73% 15% 12%

Discussion among those who believe not guilty 60% 29% 11%

As Table 10 illustrates, 73% of our respondents who believe Mr. Madden is guilty discussed this
case with friends, family, or co-workers. 60% of respondents who believed he was not guilty
indicated they had discussed this case with friends, family, or co-workers. As expected, this case
has been a topic of conversation in these counties, with those who believe Mr. Madden is guilty
showing a higher propensity to discuss the case.

Demographic Variables and Perceptions of Guilt: Additional analyses examined if certain

demographic characteristics among the respondents were more associated with higher
perceptions of Mr. Maddens guilt or innocence. The results, presented in Table 11, indicate that
a clear pattern emerges regarding the perception that Mr. Madden is guilty of the murder of Ms.
Doolin. Across all groups, the plurality perception in Warren, Simpson, Barren, and Monroe
counties is that Mr. Madden is guilty. Also, in each of these counties a majority of potential
jurors have already prejudged the case. This is not the case in Christian county, however. In this
county the strongest perception of guilt is among women at only 15%, and in each instance the
number of people who have prejudged the case in Christian county is lower than 20%.

Table 11: Demographics and perceptions of Guilt in Madden case

___
Guilty Not Dont
Guilty know

Male (non-Christian) 41% 12% 47%

Male (Christian) 8% 2% 90%

Female (non-Christian) 40% 12% 48%

Female (Christian) 15% 5% 80%

HS Degree or Less (non-Christian) 40% 10% 50%

HS Degree or Less (Christian) 10% 10% 80%

College Degree (non-Christian) 41% 15% 46%

College Degree (Christian) 12% 5% 83%

Below Median Age (non-Christian) 42% 11% 47%

Below Median Age (Christian) 9% 4% 87%

Median Age and Above (non-Christian) 40% 12% 48%

Median Age and Above (Christian) 13% 3% 84%

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Part 4: Summary

To summarize, the results of this survey indicate that:

A plurality of Warren, Barren, Simpson, and Monroe County residents have heard of Mr.
Madden and Ms. Doolin.
A plurality of Warren, Barren, Simpson, and Monroe County residents know that Mr.
Madden has been charged with the murder of Ms. Doolin.
A plurality of Warren, Barren, Simpson, and Monroe County residents believe Mr.
Madden is guilty, with the majority of those believing he is definitely guilty.
A plurality of Warren, Barren, Simpson, and Monroe County residents believe coverage
of this case by the local news media they have consumed has favored the prosecution.
There has been widespread discussion of this case among citizens throughout Warren,
Barren, Monroe, and Simpson counties.
The belief that Mr. Madden is guilty is high among essentially all demographic categories
measured.
In Christian County, knowledge of the individuals involved in the case is low,
consumption of case related media is low, and the extent to which respondents have
already formed a judgement about the case is low.

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 Madden Change of Venue Survey

1. Do you have a Kentucky State drivers license?

Yes No Not Sure

2. Which Kentucky county are you registered to vote in?

Warren Barren Simpson Monroe Christian None of these counties

3. Have you heard of Mr. Timothy Madden

Yes No Not Sure

4. Have you heard of Ms. Gabbi Doolin

Yes No Not Sure

5. Did you know that Mr. Madden has been charged with the murder of Ms. Doolin?

Yes No Not Sure

6. Based on what you have read or heard about the case, do you think Mr. Madden is guilty or
innocent of the murder of Ms. Doolin?

Guilty Innocent Not Sure

7. (To those indicating guilt) Do you think Mr. Madden is probably guilty or definitely guilty?

Definitely Guilty Probably Guilty Not Sure

8. Have you spoken about this case with anyone?

Yes No Not Sure

9. What has been your primary source of media information about this case?

Televison Newspaper Radio Social Media

10. Do you believe media coverage of this case has favored the prosecution, the defense, or has
been neutral?

Prosecution Defense Neutral

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11. What is your highest level of formal education? Some high school? High school graduate
or GED? Some college? Associates degree? Bachelors degree? Advanced degree?

Some high school High school graduate Some college Associates degree
Bachelors degree Advanced degree

12. What is your age?

13. With regard to your race, are you white, black, Hispanic, or something else?

White Black Hispanic Something else

14. With regard to your sex, are you male or female?

Male Female Other/Prefer not to say

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