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Charts and examples in this slides came from Charles M. Friel Ph.D., Criminal Justice Center, Sam Houston State University
Concepts of Simple Regression
Simple Regression
Formula of straight line
Y = a + bX
Y = dependent variable
X = independent variable
a = the intercept, the point at which the line intersects the
Y-axis
b = the slope of the line, the rate of increase or decrease
in Y as a function of a unit change in X
When X changes by 1 unit, Y changes by b units
An Example of a Straight Line
An Example of a Bivariate Regression
r = +0.94
How to Get the Slope (b)
and the Constant (a)
The slope for the best t line also called the
regression coefcient
b = [N(XY) (X) (Y) ] / [N X 2 (X) 2 ]
The intercept of the best t line also called the
regression constant
a = (b) (x
)
The Regression Equation
Case Priors Sentenc X2 Y2 XY
(X) e (Y)
A 2 2 4 4 4
B 3 3 9 9 9
C 0 2 0 4 0
D 4 8 16 64 32
E 5 10 25 100 50
F 1 2 1 4 2
G 6 15 36 225 90
H 3 5 9 25 15
I 7 18 49 324 126
J 5 10 25 100 50
SS total = ( y ) 2
Without any IV, the best prediction would be the mean
SS regression = (y ) 2
But if we know the relationship between the IV and DV, the square improvement would be
SS regression
SS error = ( y y ) 2
And the error remaining would be SS error
Partitioning Sums of Squares
N = 70
Questions for analysis
What is the overall relationship between the length of
sentence and the predictor variables?
How much of the variance in sentence is accounted for
by the predictor variables? How much is not accounted
for?
What is the direction and magnitude of the effect of
each predictor variable on the length of sentence?
How accurate is the model in predicting sentences?
Statistics on the DV and IVs
MeanStdDev
SENTENCE5.9574.953
DR_SCORE6.1862.661
PR_CONV1.8431.656
JAIL_TM42.91445.198
TM_DISP88.97124.405
NofCases=70
Intercorrelation Matrix
What is the overall relationship between the length of
sentence and the predictor variables?
Multiple R 0.65420
R Square 0.42797
Adjusted R Square 0.39277
Standard Error 3.85979
H0 : k = 0.00
DR_SCORE.192012.892956
TM_DISP.075758.004101
JAIL_TM.025876.071403
PR_CONV.0880571.287382
(Constant)1.9260416.795020
Sentence = 50.79 0.77 (dr_score) 0.18 (tm_disp) + 0.19 (jail_tm) - 1.14 (pr_conv)
Backward Elimination
This method in SPSS called Backward
It starts with the Enter method, then eliminate the IV
with the smallest non-signicant partial correlation
with DV.
In SPSS the default probability to eliminate a variable
is called pout (probability out) = p 0.10.
It repeats to recheck the model that the IVs in the
model are all signicantly related with the DV and the
IVs out of the model are all insignicant.
Backward Elimination