Argus FMB Ammonia

Formerly FMB Weekly Ammonia Report

Issue 14-31 | Thursday 31 July 2014

market summary price guide

Quiet market as Ramadan ends Ammonia fob

The market has been extremely quiet this week with 31 Jul 24 Jul
businesses closing down for the Eid al-Fitr holiday in most of
the Middle East and many parts of Asia, and little activity Ventspils $/t 445-455 445-455
reported out of the Black Sea. Yuzhny $/t 445-455 445-455
North Africa $/t 455-465 455-465
Concerns over the security situation in Ukraine are Middle East $/t 450-460 450-460
mounting and this week it was reported that the Stirol plant
US Gulf domestic (barge) $/st 480-490 480-490
in Gorlovka, eastern Ukraine, had been mined by militants.
Ammonia stocks at the plant were completely emptied at Caribbean $/t 480 480
end of June to avoid any serious explosions in the event of
an attack, but news of the mines will mean that the facility Ammonia cfr
will not be restarting any time in the near future. Ammonia 31 Jul 24 Jul
deliveries from Togliatti and Rossosh are continuing down
NW Eur (duty unpaid) $/t 510-525 510-525
the pipeline at normal rates however, so for now there
is still expected to be around 200-220,000t loading from NW Eur (duty paid/d free) $/t 538-553 538-553
Yuzhny in August - a similar volume to the line-up out of the North Africa $/t 485-495 485-495
port for July. India $/t 510-537* 500-545
East Asia (excl Taiwan) $/t 515-535 515-535
In India, FACTs tender for 2 x 7,500t shipments for delivery Taiwan $/t 515-530 515-530
25-29 August, and 8-12 September, which closed on Tuesday, Tampa $/t 520 520
received only three offers and each offer was only for one
US Gulf $/t 525 525
of the two shipments. Trammo and CIFC offered 7,500t for
the second shipment, while Hazel offered only 5,000t for This price range reflects a duty level set at 5.5pc
the first shipment and this offer has been disqualified for *Indicative Price, ** all formula, *** old business,
failing to fulfil the quantity requirement. No prices had na - Not available
been disclosed by press time.
yuzhny vs middle east fob price Highlights this week:

Concerns over Ukraine security situation

US sanctions: No impact on Russian ammonia imports

FACT receives 3 partial offers in this weeks tender

Notore to load MaryCam Swan for OCP

View the methodology used to assess ammonia prices

at www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback
is always welcome at fertilizer@argusmedia.com

Copyright 2014 Argus Media Ltd

Argus FMB Ammonia Issue 14-31 | Thursday 31 July 2014

In FACTs tender for 120,000t for LT supply, offers from
CIFC, Muntajat and Khribco are still being considered and
no details on prices/formula offers have been disclosed.
In Southeast Asia, Mitsui has confirmed that it will load
the newly chartered Gaschem Dollart in mid-August from
Bontang, Indonesia. The vessel is currently off the waters of
Vietnam.
Also in Indonesia there are unconfirmed reports that a
trader, possibly Marubeni, will soon load a cargo from KPI,
Indonesia. The KPI plant which has been shut for a number
of weeks due to a bribery scandal, is rumoured to have at
least 20,000t of ammonia in store, and it is possible that
the plant may restart if storage tanks are emptied. All of
this remains unconfirmed but a restart of the plant would
certainly improve supply levels from Southeast Asia.
urea line so ammonia export availability could be even
lower in August. OPZs second urea line is currently running
at 40-50% capacity it is understood, and there are no plans
to restart the second ammonia line currently.
Urea prices are on the up in the region, and if ammonia
fob prices in the Black/Baltic sea do not start to rise,
producers may opt to increase urea production if urea
prices start to offer better margins. Assuming an ammonia
fob price of $450/t fob, urea prices in the Black Sea would
only need to increase beyond around $310/t fob for swing
producers to start looking to raise urea output levels and
reduce ammonia exports. This week, the prilled urea
price for the Black Sea rose to $307-310/t fob, from $295-
305/t fob last week - so if urea prices continue to rise
then the profitability of ammonia versus urea will become
increasingly scrutinized by producers.

The final line up out of Yuzhny for July was 220,000t as

Market outlook: stable expected, and for August there is already around 182,000t
scheduled to load.
Prices are stable, and although the market has been quiet Yuzhny line up for July 2014
this week, the mood appears to be somewhat more bullish Vessel 000t Shipper/Destination July
than in early July. Rising urea prices in the Black/Baltic sea
will further support ammonia prices. MaryCam Swan 15.0 Trammo/Turkey 5

Sanko Innovator 23.3 Trammo/Jordan 6

EUROPE Prins Maurits 9.0 B fert/Israel + Spain 7

Clipper Mars 40.0 Nitrochem/India 12

Yuzhny
Gas Manta 23.3 Nitrochem/Belgium 13

NF Trading this week said it was negotiating some sales Clipper Neptune 40.0 Koch/US 17

for August but had yet to confirm any new business. It is Cambridge 23.3 Nitrochem/ Belgium 24
understood that Koch is likely to load the Clipper Orion Gas Grouper 23.3 Nitrochem / Tunisia 26
from Yuzhny in mid-August, most probably with Rossosh Gas Snapper 23.3 Nitrochem/ Morocco 30
tonnage from NFT and possibly some OPZ volumes. OPZ
Total 220.5
currently has around 10,000t of ammonia to sell each
*estimated arrival
month, but the producer last week started up its second

Provisional Yuzhny line up for August 2014

yuzhny, ventspils and NWE priceS Vessel 000t Shipper/Destination August

Gas Cobia 23.3 Nitrochem / Belgium *1

Prins Maurits 9.0 B fert *2-3

Gas Grouper 23.3 Nitrochem *8

Gas Manta 23.3 Nitrochem *8

Sanko Independence 23.3 Trammo *9

Clipper Orion 40.0 Koch/US *15

Clipper Mars 40.0 Nitrochem/India *18

Total 182.2

*estimated arrival

Aside from the vessels listed in the August line-up table,

Trammo is expected to load another vessel from Yuzhny
later in August, possibly the Sanko Independence. Trammo

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Argus FMB Ammonia Issue 14-31 | Thursday 31 July 2014

has reportedly bought another 5,000t from DniproAzot for india, far east and Middle east price
August but confirmation of price or volumes could not be
confirmed by press time.

Ventspils/Sillamae
As reported last week, Nitrochem will continue to deliver
and accumulate Togliatti tonnes in early August to Ventspils,
and this will be delivered on a shipment to Belgium during
August/ September.

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

The Middle East fob price is static this week with no spot
activity reported during the Eid al Fitr holiday. Supply is
tight in the region, with all PIC Kuwait availability for August
sold to Mitsui, and Sabic also sold out for next month.
Saudi Arabia
Sabic last week said it would be targeting above $500/t
fob for September volumes, having sold out of product for
August following its sale of around 70,000t of spot material
to Trammo and Yara. The producer expects to have
around 15-20,000t less to export in September due to an
unexpected technical issue.
The latest available loading schedule out of Saudi Arabia for
July/August is as follows:
Loading Schedule July/August
Loading
Vessel Name Port QTY Destination
date
Algeria
OCI this week reported that the second ammonia line at
Sorfert is again down, and will remain so for 7-10 days due
to a technical problem. The producer says it will still be
able to fulfill its contract shipments, and Yaras Navigator
Gusto is expected to load around 15,000t in the first week
of August from Sorfert for delivery into its own system,
followed by OCIs Navigator Galaxy which is due to load
11,500t for the Netherlands later in the month.
Nigeria/Morocco
Trammos MaryCam Swan has been chartered to Notore for
one voyage from Onne, Nigeria to Jorf Lasfar, Morocco. The
vessel is understood to have arrived at Onne yesterday and
will load a part cargo from Notore for delivery to OCP.

Gas Quantum 25-Jul RAK 23,000 India

Al Jabirah 30-Jul Jubail 23,000 East Asia
Sanko Innovator 04-Aug Jubail 23,000 Spot/Trammo
Tobolsk 06-Aug RAK 23,000 India
Rose Gas 12-Aug Jubail 23,000 East Asia
Viking River 15-Aug Jubail 25,000 Spot/Yara
TBN 17-Aug RAK 23,000 India
TBN 23-Aug Jubail 23,000 Spot/Trammo
Argus FMB Africa Fertilizer 2015
Kuwait 18-20 February 2015
Mitsui is scheduled to load a 23,000t cargo from PIC in mid- Addis Ababa, Ethopia
August for delivery to East Asia. Mitsui reported last week
that the cargo will be priced under formula, presumably at Save the date! Registration will open shortly
time of loading.

Egypt
Market Reporting
OCI-EBIC again this week confirmed that the ammonia plant
Consulting
at Ain Sokhna is still shut down. The producer still expects
the facility to remain shut until the end of August due to no argusmedia.com/fertilizer-africa Events
gas availability.

Copyright 2014 Argus Media Group Page 3 of 7

Argus FMB Ammonia Issue 14-31 | Thursday 31 July 2014

Ammonia arrivals in India during July/August 2014

Supplier Name of Vessel Quantity Load Port Date of Arrival Disport Price $ cfr

Muntajat/Zuari Al Marona 4,000 Mesaieed 03.7.14 Goa LTC

Muntajat/MCFL Al Marona 4,000 Mesaieed 06.7.14 Mangalore LTC
Muntajat/FACT Al Marona 7,500 Mesaieed 07.6.14 Cochin 555
Trammo/Greenstar Al Majedah 6,600 Al Jubail 03.7.14 Tuticorin 540
Trammo/KIT/IFFCO Al Majedah 8,750 Al Jubail 05.7.14 Kandla LTC
CIFC/PPL Gas Line 14,500 BIK 11.7.14 Paradip 524
CIFC/Deepak Gas Line 8,516 BIK 18.7.14 JNPT 524
Raintrade/CIL Gas Cat 10,000 BIK 13.7.14 Vizag 499.57
Raintrade/CIL Gas Cat 3,500 BIK 15.7.14 Kakinada 499.57
Muntajat/Zuari Al Marona 5,000 Al Jubail 20.7.14 Goa LTC
Muntajat/FACT Al Marona 7,000 Al Jubail 23.7.14 Cochin 545
Muntajat/MCFL Al Marona 3,000 Al Jubail 24.7.14 Mangalore LTC
Hazel/Deepak Ever Rich 6 5,500 BIK 23.7.14 JNPT LTC
Muntajat/Greenstar Gas Colombia 5,000 Mesaieed 21.7.14 Tuticorin LTC
Muntajat/PPL Gas Colombia 11,000 Mesaieed 23.7.14 Paradip 517.5
Muntajat/TCL Gas Colombia 7,000 Mesaieed 28.7.14 Haldia LTC
Trammo/IFFCO Sanko Innovator 3,000 Ain Sokhna 26.7.14 Kandla LTC
Trammo/Greenstar Sanko Innovator 5,200 Ain Sokhna 29.7.14 Tuticorin 540
Sabic/Hindalco Rose Gas 4,500 Al Jubail 29.7.14 Dahej 499
Sabic/Hindalco Rose Gas 9,000 Al Jubail 30.7.14 Sikka 498
Muntajat/Zuari Rose Gas 5,000 Al Jubail 31.7.14 Goa LTC
Nitrochem/Iffco Clipper Mars 39,600 Yuzhny 30.7.14 Paradip 522.5
Total 177,166
Muntajat /MCFL Rose Gas 4,000 Al Jubail 01.8.14 Mangalore LTC
Trammo/FACT Sanko Innovator 7,850 Ain Sokhna 01.8.14 Cochin 537
Sabic/CIL Gas Quantum 10,000 Ras Al Khair 04.8.14 Kakinada LTC
Sabic/CIL Gas Quantum 5,000 Ras Al Khair 05.8.14 Vizag LTC
Sabic/CIL Gas Quantum 5,000 Ras Al Khair 05.8.14 Vizag LTC
Sabic/IFFCO Al Majedah 3,350 Al Jubail 05.8.14 Kandla LTC
CIFC/PPL Gas Line 15,000 BIK 08.8.14 Paradip LTC
CIFC/FACT Gas Line 7,500 BIK 13.8.14 Cochin 530
Muntajat/Zuari/Green Goa/Tuticorin/
Al Marona 15,000 Mesaieed Middle August LTC
Star/MCFL Mangalore

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT
India
In India, the price assessment for this week has been
revised to $510-537/t cfr on an indicative basis. Indian
import demand still appears to be firm and cfr prices are
reflecting this. Nitrochems latest shipment to IFFCO ex-
Yuzhny on the Clipper Mars, which discharged at Paradip
yesterday was priced at around $522/t cfr.
In FACTs tender for 2 x 7,500t shipments for delivery 25-29
August, and 8-12 September, which closed on Tuesday, only
three offers were received, and as outlined in the market
summary above, each offer was only for one of the two
shipments; Trammo and CIFC offered 7,500t for the second
shipment, while Hazel offered only 5,000t for the first
shipment. The Hazel offer has been disqualified for failing
to fulfil the quantity requirement. No prices had been
disclosed by press time.
Meanwhile, in FACTs tender for 120,000t for LT supply,
for delivery over 6 months in the usual 7,500t shipment
sizes, offers from CIFC, Muntajat and Khribco are still being
considered. As yet, no details on prices/formula offers have
been disclosed.

Copyright 2014 Argus Media Group Page 4 of 7

Argus FMB Ammonia Issue 14-31 | Thursday 31 July 2014

FMB Spot Sales Selection 31 July 2014

Origin Seller Buyer Destination 000t $pt bulk Shipment

Saudi Arabia Sabic Yara NA 25 460fob August

Baltic Nitrochem Trammo Morocco 23 450fob July
Ukraine Dniproazot Trammo NA spot 450fob July
NA Trammo CJ Indonesia 6 545cfr june
Yuzhny NF trading Yara NW Europe 25 500fob May
Transammonia Taiwan 6
Yuzhny NF trading Transammonia 23.4 May
Baltic Various Yara NW Europe 50 520-530fob April-June
Yuzhny DniproAzot Transammonia 5-7 505fob May
Yuzhny NF trading c.23 510-515fob May
Egypt Abu Qi Transammonia 11 516fob April
Yara Mitsubishi South Korea 7 575cfr May
Saudi Arabia Sabic Mitsui Far East 8 513fob April
Saudi Arabia Sabic Yara Far East 23 482fob April
Saudi Arabia Sabic Koch 40 477fob April
Yuzhny B Fertilizer OCI 12 485fob April
Yuzhny NF trading Yara NW Europe 50 500fob April
Iran CIFC FACT India 7.5 520cfr April
Qatar Muntajat FACT India 7.5 530cfr April
Egypt Abu Qir OCI 11 454fob March/April
Saudi Arabia Sabic Marubeni 23 468fob March/April
Yuzhny NF trading 20 450fob March
Yuzhny NF trading Fertiberia Spain 10 450fob March

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Argus FMB Ammonia Issue 14-31 | Thursday 31 July 2014

Mitsui will load the newly chartered Gaschem Dollart from

Argus FMB is expanding its London-based Bontang in mid-August, as its first voyage for the vessel.
fertilizer editorial team The cargo will be delivered to Mitsuis customers in East
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ASIA PACIFIC

Indonesia
There are rumours that a trader, possibly Marubeni, will
load a mid-size cargo from the KPI plant in Indonesia in
August. Although the plant is understood to remain down,
there are unconfirmed reports that there is over 20,000t of
ammonia in storage at the facility. It is possible that once
this cargo is lifted out of storage tanks the plant may be
able to restart. The plant has been shut down for a number
of weeks due to a bribery scandal. www.argusmedia.com/fertilizer

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Argus FMB Ammonia Issue 14-31 | Thursday 31 July 2014

Caribbean
In Trinidad & Tobago the 10-day gas curtailment of 30%
Argus FMB Europe Fertilizer 2014
is still expected to go ahead for August, followed by a 15-17 October 2014
3-week long curtailment, also of around 30%, scheduled for Monte Carlo, Monaco
September.
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