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Offshore Jack Ups Middle East

09-10, October 2017


Dubai, UAE
Global Oil Demand Growth
(courtesy to BCG Sep 2017)

Page 2
Global Oil Demand and Supply
(courtesy to World Oil Sand Magazine & EIA Sep 2017)

Page 3
OPEC Production Capacity Forecast
(courtesy to EIA Sep 2017)

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World Bank Oil Prices Forecast
(courtesy to World Bank Latest Released Forecasts)

World Bank Commodities Price Forecast (nominal US dollars)


100 40

90 36

80 32

70 28

60 24
US$, Coal & Oil

US$, Gas
50 20

40 16

30 12

20 8

10 4

0 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030

Coal, Australia ($/mt) Crude Oil, avg ($/b) Natural Gas, Europe ($/mmbtu)
Natural Gas, US ($/mmbtu) Natural Gas LNG, Japan ($/mmbtu)

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Short-Term Oil Trend Outlook
(courtesy to EIA Sep 2017)

North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices


averaged $52 per barrel (b) in August, $4/b
higher than the July average [still growing
by mid September].

EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average


$51/b in 2017 and $52/b in 2018.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) average


crude oil prices are forecast to be about
$2/b lower than Brent prices in both 2017
and 2018.

NYMEX contract values for December


2017 delivery that traded during the five-
day period ending September 7 suggest
that a range of $39/b to $63/b [more likely
$50/b to $60/b] encompasses the market
expectation for December WTI prices at
the 95% confidence level.
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Current Oil Market Status
(courtesy to BCG Sep 2017)

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Offshore Rigs Utilization
(courtesy to HIS Markit Sep 2017)

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Rigs Utilization
(courtesy to McKinsey Insights Sep 2017)

Onshore rig counts revival persists, while offshore counts start to grow:

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Offshore Rig Demand (USA)
(courtesy to McKinsey Insights Dec 2016)

Falling to a low point in terms of demand in early 2017, the jack-up rig sector is
expected to gently recover, although its longer term resurgence will depend on
oversupply continuing to be mitigated.
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Oil Price Geopolitical Risks
(courtesy to BCG Sep 2017)

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Rig Market Status
(courtesy to RIGZONE June 2017)

For quite some time now, many oilfield


analysts have reported the beginning
of a recovery in offshore rig demand.
Recent report headlines, however,
have now started to use phrases like
elusive recovery or something
similar. The fact of the matter is that a
recovery never really started. Yes,
there have been isolated positive
developments in some markets for
some rig types, but reports of a
recovery have most definitely been
overstated.

Looking forward, the price of oil will clearly dictate what level of activity takes place. So far,
the OPEC production cuts have not resulted in a higher sustained oil price, so much so that
some are revising price forecasts down. Should the price fall to and remain in the low $40s
or worse, there will be little, if any, increase in activity and utilization and day rates will
remain in the doldrums. In addition, continued survival for some companies will become
questionable. However, with a stable price that is in the mid $40s to low $50s, the few bright
spots that have occurred should become more frequent and visible.
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5 Year Copper Prices
(courtesy to InvestmentMine Oct 2017)

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5 Year Nickel Prices
(courtesy to InvestmentMine Oct 2017)

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5 Year Silver Prices
(courtesy to InvestmentMine Oct 2017)

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5 Year Zinc Prices
(courtesy to InvestmentMine Oct 2017)

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5 Year Lead Prices
(courtesy to InvestmentMine Oct 2017)

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5 Year Aluminium Prices
(courtesy to InvestmentMine Oct 2017)

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5 Year Tin Prices
(courtesy to InvestmentMine Oct 2017)

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Steel Historical Prices
(courtesy to FOCUSECONIMICS 2017)

Steel (USA) Historical Price Chart Steel (Europe) Historical Price Chart

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Thank you...