Taller # 7

Caculo del MTBF

Datos de falla del siguiente Equipo son: 30, 31, 14, 2, 26, 25,
22, 7 en dias.
Calcular
Calcular el MTBF y la rata de falla

Cual es la probabilidad que falle antes de las 200 horas.

Cual es la confiabilidad en 300 horas.

Si el costo de la falla es de Col$ 26670.000 y el costos del

mantto preventivo es de $ 1590.000, cual es el tiempo ptimo
para hacer el mantenimiento?.
 Confiabilidad Distribucion exponencial

MTBF = 1
Rata de falla 1.0000

Tiempo Exponencial
1 #ADDIN?
2 0.14
3 0.05
4 0.02
5 0.01
6 0.00
7 0.00
8 0.00
9 0.00
10 0.00
11 0.00
12 0.00
13 0.00
14 0.00
15 0.00
16 0.00
17 0.00
18 0.00
19 0.00
20 0.00
21 0.00
22 0.00
23 0.00
24 0.00
25 0.00
26 0.00
27 0.00
28 0.00
29 0.00
30 0.00
31 0.00
32 0.00
33 0.00
34 0.00
35 0.00
36 0.00
37 0.00
38 0.00
39 0.00
40 0.00
41 0.00
42 0.00
43 0.00
44 0.00
45 0.00
46 0.00
47 0.00
48 0.00
49 0.00
50 0.00
51 0.00
52 0.00
53 0.00
54 0.00
55 0.00
56 0.00
57 0.00
58 0.00
59 0.00
60 0.00
61 0.00
62 0.00
63 0.00
64 0.00
65 0.00
66 0.00
67 0.00
68 0.00
69 0.00
70 0.00
71 0.00
72 0.00
73 0.00
74 0.00
75 0.00
76 0.00
77 0.00
78 0.00
79 0.00
80 0.00
81 0.00
82 0.00
83 0.00
84 0.00
85 0.00
86 0.00
87 0.00
88 0.00
89 0.00
90 0.00
91 0.00
92 0.00
93 0.00
94 0.00
95 0.00
96 0.00
97 0.00
98 0.00
99 0.00
100 0.00
 Simulacin por Monte Carlo de Confiabilidad Exponencial
A : distribucion exponencial con MTTF=137 dias
Aleatorios
landa = 1/137 = 0.0073
Landa= 0.0037
X= (-1/landa)*{ln (aleatorio)}
s Aleatorio Exponencial
1 0.275 348.61
2 0.871 37.44 Exponencial
3 0.094 639.32
Exponencial
4 0.730 84.96
5 0.099 625.61
6 0.699 96.81
7 0.102 616.55
8 0.251 373.66 1.000
9 0.093 641.04
10 0.084 669.66
11 0.650 116.37 0.900
12 0.413 238.83
13 0.896 29.61
14 0.321 306.88
0.800
15 0.000 2379.09
16 0.859 41.04 0.700
17 0.738 82.28
18 0.234 392.13
19 0.547 163.28 0.600
20 0.263 361.48
21 0.215 415.17
22 0.052 799.25 0.500
23 0.806 58.31
24 0.747 78.84
25 0.772 70.03 0.400
26 0.456 212.19
27 0.541 166.07
28 0.902 27.92
0.300
29 0.292 333.01
30 0.374 265.74 0.200
31 0.450 215.78
32 0.986 3.85
33 0.639 121.05 0.100
34 0.262 362.01
35 0.553 159.92
36 0.155 504.63 0.000
37 0.001 1775.12 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0
38 0.456 212.08 0. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
39 0.183 459.23
40 0.358 277.81
41 0.625 127.18
42 0.140 530.46
43 0.014 1159.26
44 0.779 67.64
45 0.525 174.16
46 0.533 169.84
47 0.847 44.96
48 0.383 259.18
49 0.417 236.15
50 0.196 440.67
51 0.790 63.61
52 0.616 131.14
53 0.250 374.37
54 0.344 288.05
55 0.246 378.71
56 0.124 563.93
57 0.314 313.41
58 0.054 786.82
59 0.670 108.36
60 0.419 235.39
61 0.617 130.47
62 0.537 167.94
63 0.753 76.78
64 0.853 42.87
65 0.272 351.68
66 0.353 281.54
67 0.702 95.72
68 0.393 252.34
69 0.797 61.19
70 0.325 303.67
71 0.940 16.70
72 0.413 238.97
 s Aleatorio Exponencial
73 0.404 244.77
74 0.959 11.28 Exponencial
75 0.786 65.12
Exponencial
76 0.441 221.50
77 0.221 408.28
78 0.379 262.01
79 0.326 302.62
80 0.819 53.90 1.000
81 0.606 135.17
82 0.728 85.74
83 0.335 295.32 0.900
84 0.735 83.30
85 0.170 478.81
86 0.331 298.83
0.800
87 0.947 14.66
88 0.769 70.89 0.700
89 0.945 15.31
90 0.150 513.28
91 0.495 190.21 0.600
92 0.108 601.30
93 0.620 129.11
94 0.910 25.61 0.500
95 0.127 558.49
96 0.896 29.58
97 0.286 338.05 0.400
98 0.759 74.54
99 0.199 436.19
100 0.996 1.09
0.300
Prob 0.1231901129
0.6261473982 0.200
0.8541660613

0.100

0.000
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0
0. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00. 00.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
 Exponencial

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0
00 900 000 100 200 300 400 500
1 2 2 2 2 2 2
 Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

Calculo de la Confiabilidad Distribucion exponencial

PROBABILIDA
CALCULO DE CONFIABILIDAD TIEMPO RELIABILITY
DE FALLA

MTBF (dias)= 365.00 0 1.0000 .0000

Rata de falla = 0.002740

40 .8962 .1038

Tiempo Probabilidad falla Reliability

80 .8032 .1968
0 1.0000 .0000 120 .7198 .2802
5 .9864 .0136 160 .6451 .3549
10 .9730 .0270 200 .5781 .4219
15 .9597 .0403 240 .5181 .4819
20 .9467 .0533 280 .4643 .5357
25 .9338 .0662 320 .4161 .5839
30 .9211 .0789 360 .3730 .6270
35 .9086 .0914 400 .3342 .6658
40 .8962 .1038 440 .2995 .7005
1,000 .0646 .9354 480 .2685 .7315
Reliability Dias FFI 520 .2406 .7594
0.01 1,681 722.70 560 .2156 .7844
0.1 840 657.00 600 .1932 .8068
0.5 253 365.00 640 .1732 .8268
0.6 186 292.00 680 .1552 .8448
0.7 130 219.00 720 .1391 .8609
0.8 81 146.00 760 .1247 .8753
0.9 38 73.00 800 .1117 .8883
0.99 4 7.30 840 .1001 .8999
0.999 0 0.73 880 .0897 .9103
920 .0804 .9196

CALCULOS DE CONFIABILIDAD - METODO DE DISTRIBUCION EXPONENCIAL

960 .0721 .9279
R=1 - EXP^(-t/MTBF) 1,000 .0646 .9354
 Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator
1,040 .0579 .9421
ALCULOS DE MANTENIBILIDAD, FAILURE-FINDING TASK 1,080 .0519 .9481
FFI=2*(1-R)*MTBF 1,120 .0465 .9535
1,160 .0417 .9583
1,200 .0373 .9627
1,240 .0335 .9665
1,280 .0300 .9700

CONFIABILIDAD DESEADA 98%

TIEMPO PARA ENCONTRAR FALLA RONDA OPERATIVA 14.6

TIEMPO PARA MANTENIMIENTO PREDICTIVO R=80% 81

TIEMPO PARA MANTENIMIENTO PREVENTIVO R=50% 253
 Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

Confiabilidad

1.0000

.9000

.8000

.7000
Reliability

.6000

.5000

.4000

.3000

.2000

.1000

.0000
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560 600 640 680 720 760 800 840 880 920 960 1,00 1,04 1,08 1,12 1,16 1,20 1,24 1,28
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Horas
.1000

.0000
0 Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator
40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560 600 640 680 720 760 800 840 880 920 960 1,00 1,04 1,08 1,12 1,16 1,20 1,24 1,28
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Horas