Uncertainty Analysis in Geomodeling: How Much Should We

Know About What We Dont Know?

Y. Zee Ma, Schlumberger, Denver CO, USA
This paper has been selected for presentation for the 2014 Gussow Geosciences
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ABSTRACT
As the demand for hydrocarbon resources continues to
grow, reservoir modeling and uncertainty analysis have
become increasingly important for optimizing field
development. Optimal valuation and exploitation of a field
requires a realistic description of the reservoir, which in turn
requires reservoir characterization and modeling, and
quantification of the uncertainty by integrating multidisciplinary
data. An integrated approach for reservoir
modeling helps bridge the traditional disciplinary divides and
tear down interdisciplinary barriers, leading to better
handling of uncertainties, and improvement of reservoir
modeling for its use in the petroleum industry. Uncertainty
analysis should be conducted for investigational analyses, and
for decision analysis under uncertainty and risk. Constructing
a realistic reservoir model, and reducing and quantifying the
uncertainty are the topics discussed in this article.
INTRODUCTION
Reservoir characterization and modeling have seen
significant leaps in the last two to three decades, driven by
the development of computational horsepower, advances in
seismic technology, logging tools, geological understanding of
depositional systems and natural fracturing of subsurface
systems, and applications of probabilistic methods. It has
evolved from fragmentary pieces into a discipline of
geoscience applications for the petroleum industry, from
university research to value-added resource developments,
from 2D mapping of structures and reservoir properties to 3D
geocellular representations of hydrocarbon reservoirs, and
from dealing with discipline-specific problems to integrated
multidisciplinary reservoir modeling.
The division of tasks between geologists and reservoir
engineers in the early time was that geologists explored for
hydrocarbon resources, and engineers produced
hydrocarbons from the reservoirs. This separation of the
tasks was based on the low usage of fossil fuel relative to the
amount of the resources in the ground and high reservoir
quality of formations. As hydrocarbon consumption has
dramatically increased worldwide, reservoir management has
become more and more important. Integration of geology
with reservoir engineering has become critical for better
reservoir management (Haldorsen and Lake, 1984, Ma et al,
2008), especially for unconventional reservoirs (Du et al.,
2011; Cipolla et al., 2012).
Geology has traditionally been considered as descriptive,
although some quantitative branches including geophysics,
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mathematical geology and geostatistics have significantly
increased the breadth of geoscience. We believe that in the
future, most geoscientists will conduct geologic or reservoir
modeling as routine work. By performing geologic modeling,
geoscientists can test and quantify their geologic concepts
and hypotheses. In doing so, they use data to prove or
disprove the concepts, and use statistics and geostatistics to
resolve inconsistencies in various data and integrate them in
a coherent manner (Ma, 2010). As a result of the
convergence of descriptive geology and quantitative geology,
geoscientists need to use the modeling as a process for
understanding the reservoir, not just producing a numeric
model. The convergence should make reservoir modeling a
synonym of reservoir characterization.
Reservoir management and field development planning
are important for maximizing the economics of the field,
which requires accurate reservoir characterization. Reservoir
modeling was the missing link between geosciences and
reservoir engineering in field development before the mid-
1980s. Since then reservoir characterization has shown
significant values in identifying both prolific and marginal
reservoirs, extending the production life of existing fields and
increasing the hydrocarbon recovery of reservoirs. Successful
reservoir characterization projects typically show high degree
of integration. In fact, reservoir modeling is the best way to
integrate all the data and disciplines, and the only way in
which all the data and interpretations come together into a
single 3D numeric representation of a reservoir. In
integration, the data include not only quantitative data such
as well-logs, cores, and seismic data, but also the geologic
concepts and descriptive interpretations (Mallet, 2002; Ma,
2009; Cao et al., 2014).
A reservoir is the result of geologic processes and is not
randomly generated. However, the complexity of subsurface
reservoir properties coupled with limited data leads to
substantial uncertainty in a reservoir model. Uncertainties
can be mitigated by gaining more information and/or using
better science and technology. How much uncertainty should
be mitigated depends on the needs of decision analysis for
reservoir management and the cost of information.
Uncertainty analysis should be conducted for investigational
analyses, and for decision analysis under uncertainty and risk.
Knowing what needs to be known and what can be known
should be the main focal points of uncertainty analysis in
reservoir modeling.
RESERVOIR MODELING
A good model can advance fashion by ten years.
Yves Saint-Lauren
The essence of reservoir modeling lies in using all the
available data to build an accurate reservoir representation
that is fit-for-purpose to the fields development needs. In a
significant hydrocarbon resource asset, a good reservoir
model can be an essential element for increasing the
production and extending the field development life for
years.
Why build a reservoir model?
The most common use of reservoir models is to provide a
3D numeric input to reservoir simulation. Reservoir modeling
and simulation provide a basis for maximizing economic value
for field development and operational decisions. The typical
motivation for reservoir simulation is to increase profitability
through better reservoir management. These include
development plans for new fields and depletion strategies for
mature fields. Reservoir modeling and simulation can address
liquid (oil, and water) and gas volume forecasting, decline
analysis, infill drilling uplift, secondary or tertiary recovery
options, well management strategies, water/gas handling
strategies and facility constraints, contact movement, liquid
dropout, reservoir surveillance strategies, injection strategies,
and well and completion designs. Reservoir modeling and
simulation can also be used for reserve confirmation, equity
determination, or support for funding large projects.
Traditional mapping and cross-section methods worked
relatively well for homogeneous reservoirs, but they tend to
overestimate sweep efficiency for heterogeneous reservoirs.
These methods may significantly under- or over-estimate inplace
hydrocarbon resources because they lack 3D
examination of reservoir heterogeneities. Reservoir modeling
and simulation provide powerful tools for more accurate
reservoir description and hydrocarbon production forecasting
(Dubrule, 1989; Yu et al., 2011), and can help reservoir
management and field development. Accurate reserve
assessment through reservoir modeling and simulation could
help reduce cost and increase recovery.
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Besides reservoir simulation, reservoir modeling itself
can be used as support for reservoir surveillance activities,
such as monitoring fluid contacts and reservoir pressures,
analyzing fault transmissibility and performing production
fault seal analysis. It can also be used for an accurate
determination of stock-tank original oil in place (STOOIP), for
example, by incorporating capillary pressure effects, new
opportunity identification and prioritization, well planning
and well placement optimization, visualization and
communication of the detailed 3-D reservoir architecture and
properties between various disciplines, reviewing data and
their quality controls, resolving inconsistencies between
various disciplines, support for time lapse seismic analyses,
for example, by identifying bypassed oil, and reservoir
uncertainty and risk analysis.
Reservoir modeling is critical to rapid successful
commercialization of discovered and undeveloped
hydrocarbon resources, as well as to optimizing depletion of
mature fields. As a rapidly growing discipline, reservoir
modeling has become an integral part of the field asset
management. For large and capital-intensive development
projects, reservoir modeling and simulation have almost
become a necessity. Even for small to medium reservoirs,
modeling and simulation can enhance efficient development,
and depletion planning, and potentially increase reserves and
yield cost saving. Modeling can also help in moving static
resources to reserves.
In some cases using traditional 2D mapping methods,
reserves have originally been grossly overestimated, leading
to false optimism. Expensive modern platforms may be
installed, but later may be found under used because of the
over-estimation of the resource. On the other hand, some
large oil fields have been mistakenly farmed out because of
the underestimation of the resource by traditional methods,
leading to false pessimism. In many of these cases, reservoir
modeling could have helped make the decisions more
objectively and realistically.
Reservoir modeling is a critical link between seismic
interpretation and reservoir simulation. Without reservoir
modeling, integrated approaches to E&P solution and
accurate reservoir evaluation are almost impossible. Building
a reservoir model used to be very costly, but availability of
increasingly versatile and sophisticated software packages
has made reservoir modeling much more efficient and
affordable.