Understanding terms and jargon 15

2.3 INTERRELATIONSHIPS OF TERMS

Returning to the model in Figure 2.2, consider the probability of an item failing in the interval
between t and t  dt. This can be described in two ways:

1. The probability of failure in the interval t to t  dt given that it has survived until time t
which is

(t) dt

where (t) is the failure rate.

2. The probability of failure in the interval t to t  dt unconditionally, which is

f(t) dt

where f (t) is the failure probability density function.

The probability of survival to time t has already been defined as the reliability, R(t). The rule
of conditional probability therefore dictates that:

f (t) dt
(t) dt 
R(t)

Therfore

f (t)
(t)  (2.1)
R(t)

However, if f (t) is the probability of failure in dt then:

f (t) dt  probability of failure 0 to t  1  R(t)

t

Differentiating both sides:

dR(t)
f (t)   (2.2)
dt

Substituting equation (2.2) into equation (2.1),

dR(t) 1
(t)  
dt R(t)

Therefore integrating both sides:

t R(t)
 (t) dt  dR(t)/R(t)
0 1
16 Reliability, Maintainability and Risk

A word of explanation concerning the limits of integration is required. (t) is integrated

with respect to time from 0 to t. 1/R(t) is, however, being integrated with respect to R(t).
Now, when t  0, R(t)  1 and at t the reliability R(t) is, by definition, R(t). Integrating
then:

R(t)
t
 (t) dt  log e R(t)
0

1
 log e R(t)  log e1
 log e R(t)

But if a  eb then b  loge a, so that:

R(t)  exp  (t) dt t

0
(2.3)

If failure rate is now assumed to be constant:

t
R(t)  exp  (t) dt  exp t
t

0
(2.4)

Therefore R(t)  e t

In order to find the MTBF consider Figure 2.3 again. Let N  K, the number surviving at t,
be Ns(t). Then R(t)  Ns(t)/N.
In each interval dt the time accumulated will be Ns(t) dt. At infinity the total will be

N (t) dt
0

s

Hence the MTBF will be given by:

 Ns(t)

0 N
dt
 R(t) dt
0

 R(t) dt

0
(2.5)

This is the general expression for MTBF and always holds. In the special case of R(t)  et then

 e t

0
dt

1
 (2.6)


Note that inverting failure rate to obtain MTBF, and vice versa, is valid only for the constant
failure rate case.