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T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVI No.23 Monday, 10 16 April 2017 Pgs.24 Rs.18
Markets cautiously positive Errata

By Sanjay R. Bhatia In Roongtas Panchratna ad published in Money
The markets moved up steadily last week touching fresh Times Vol.XXVI Issue No.21 & 22, the second sentence
historic highs on the back of strong fund flows. However, should be read as - The 13th edition contains five
intermediate bouts of profit-booking and selling pressure low-priced stocks in the range of Re.0.65 and
were witnessed at higher levels because of which the Nifty Rs.80 from five booming sectors - Steel, Sugar,
struggled to sustain above the 9274 mark and finally Textile, Shipping and Chemicals.
slipped below the 9200 mark on Friday, 7 April 2017. We regret the typographical error.
The breadth of the market remained positive amidst low volumes. The FIIs remained net buyers in the cash and
derivatives segments. The DIIs, however, were seen booking profits at higher levels and remained net sellers during the
week. Crude prices remained volatile trading between $52-56 as oversupply and high US inventory data remained a
cause of concern. The RBI in its policy meeting increased the Reverse Repo rate by 25 bps in order to suck excess
liquidity while holding the Repo rate.
Technically, the prevailing positive technical
conditions helped the markets witness buying
Believe it or not!
support. The MACD, RSI and KST are all placed Gennex Laboratories recommended at Rs.4.80 as SS last
above their respective averages on the weekly week, zoomed to Rs.7.89 fetching 64% returns in just one
chart. Further, the Nifty is placed above its 50-day week!
SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The Niftys Nath Bio-Genes (India) recommended at Rs.147.75 in
50-day SMA is placed above its 100-day and 200- TT last week, zoomed to Rs.189.70 fetching 28% returns
day SMA indicating a golden cross breakout. in just one week!
These positive technical conditions could lead to GTN Textiles recommended at Rs.17.37 in TT on 27
regular buying support. March 2017, recorded a new 52-week high at Rs.26 last
The prevailing negative technical conditions, week fetching 50% returns in just two weeks!
however, still hold good and are likely to weigh on GIC Housing Finance recommended at Rs.302.40 as BB
the market sentiment at higher levels. The MACD, on 13 March 2017, recorded a new 52-week high at
Stochastic, RSI and KST are all placed below their Rs.465.90 last week fetching 54% returns within a
respective averages on the daily chart. The month!
Stochastic has slipped below its average on the Bhansali Engineering Polymers recommended at
weekly chart. Further, the Stochastic and RSI are Rs.24.40 in TT on 6 February 2017, recorded a new 52-
still placed in the overbought zone on the weekly week high at Rs.39 last week fetching 60% returns in two
chart. These negative technical conditions could months!
lead to intermediate bouts of profit-booking and (BB Best Bet; SS Stock Scan; TT Tower Talk)
selling pressure especially at higher levels.
This happens only in Money Times!
The ADX line is placed above the +DI line and the -
DI line and is also placed above the 37 level on the Now in its 26th Year
A Time Communications Publication 1

daily chart. The +DI line is placed above the DI line and above 34, which indicates that buyers have an upper hand. But
it has also come off its recent highs, which indicates that buyers are booking profits regularly.
The market sentiment remains cautiously positive
ahead of the earnings season. Although the Nifty
touched a new historic high, it struggled to sustain
higher due to lack of follow-up buying support. Now,
it is important that the Nifty moves and sustains
above 9220 for buying support to be witnessed.
Follow-up buying support is crucial at higher levels.
Intermediate bouts of profit-booking and selling
pressure are likely to be witnessed due to the
overbought conditions. 9060 and 8975 support levels
are crucial.
In the meanwhile, the markets could take cues from
the Parliament session, forthcoming earnings season,
Dollar-Rupee exchange rate, global markets and crude
oil prices.
Technically on the upside, the Sensex faces resistance at the 29650, 29825 and 30025 levels and seeks support at the
29350, 29075, 28700, 28350 and 28100 levels. The resistance levels for the Nifty are placed at 9220, 9275 and 9350
while its support levels are placed at 9060, 8975, 8890, 8860 and 8712.
BAZAR.COM
Smart picking in a peak market
Last week, when the world was busy playing April Fool, the
market was peaking and praying that its for real and not a tom Next MT issue on 14th April 2017
foolery. For the second time in the last two years, the index has In view of the market holiday on Friday, 14
come back a full circle with the CNX Nifty crossing 9000 having April 2017, on account of Ambedkar Jayanti
touched the same peak earlier in March 2015. The BSE Sensex, & Good Friday, the next issue no.24 dated
too, was upbeat at 30K in the same period.
April 17-23 2017, will go to print on
The deluge of foreign fund inflows coupled with a smart pick up
Thursday, 13th April and will be released on
in domestic inflows was instrumental in taking the market to new
heights. Stocks across the board have risen sharply and make it Friday, 14 April 2017, in Mumbai
difficult for investors to deploy funds in the market. While the
CNX Nifty ended FY17 with 18.55% gain, the broader market indices outperformed the benchmarks with over 32% rise.
Little wonder, analysts are advising caution as valuations appear stretched and may not leave much room for an upside
unless accompanied by an earnings recovery.
All talks of India being at the cusp of great transformation and dynamic reforms are overdue. But a lot of Ifs need to be
crossed for consolidation from hereon. Currently at 22.5x trailing twelve months (TTM) and 18.1x FY18E P/E,
valuations seem fairly placed. P/E expansion is covered and now it is time for fundamentals to excel and move up
smartly. The FII and DII inflows were robust in FY17 as compared to FY16. The inflow figures of the last three months
indicate the changed moods of DIIs and FIIs. Hence, smart picking at peaks is the new challenge.
Even today amidst many Ifs and at such heights, there are pockets wherein investors can find value. Such proposals
offer handsome return prospects. Investors are hence advised to look for stocks that are undervalued and gauge them in
terms of the discount that they are available at from their book value. It may be prudent to enlist stocks whose price to
book value (P/BV) is low compared to its peers. These are companies that are under the influence of negative earnings
and cannot be measured by the P/E yardstick. They are on the threshold of a smart turnaround and capable of turning
multibaggers in the long-run. Mark the stocks P/BV ratio to the industry average and weigh the same in respect of the
return on equity (RoE). Higher the RoE, higher the prospects of bridging the P/BV discount.
When NPAs are rising and banks face tough times, it is time to look for companies that convert bank loans into equity in
a restructuring exercise. Many companies from the power and metal sectors are on the threshold of converting their
bank debts to equity either fully or partially. Such a move may benefit not only banks which will not suffer a permanent
diminution in the value of their loans if the assets are operational and viable but also investors who participate in any

upside in the value of equity when the finances of these companies improve. Higher capacity utilization and
simultaneous debt reduction makes a great combination for an equity investment.
The emerging markets may look up as Donald Trumps over-protectionist policies fizzle out by court interventions and
the developing public outcry in USA. The renewed interest in US imports may take the markets to new heights. Make use
of such a rally to exit may be more apt than staying on. A re-entry should be considered only at lower valuations and
when the Ifs materialize.
Q4 results shall begin their innings soon and the impact of demonetisation may still be visible. Analysts expect a mixed
bag in the Q4 harvest. Companies that post reasonably healthy numbers may perform exceedingly well. NPA
management and improving governance may give a positive surprise to PSU banks. The top-line of consumer durables
(auto, paints, staples, etc.) and FMGCs may improve while coming out of the demonetisation pains. Power and power
ancillaries may present a reasonable set of numbers with a glorious promise unfolding in coming months. The affordable
housing sector, too, sails in the same boat. Housing finance and consumer finance companies are in for very good times.
Telecom, IT, pharma and capital goods will need a lot to desire. Each one is lagging behind for its own peculiar reasons.
However, management guidance and how they get out of the torrid times and compliances will chart their course in the
short run.
A long-term investor needs to carefully identify stocks from a valuation perspective where the earnings trajectory looks
strong and consistent. In the current environment, business prospects look strong if backed by a strong management
and ethical corporate governance.
FII and DII inflows have been robust of late but corporate earnings need to match the flows to even out the prices to
values. The Street remains firm in its belief of a strong reform-oriented government at the Centre. The government
spending as indicated in the budget also seems to be in the right direction and at the right speed. Planned government
expenditure may propel the wings of private capex spending. All these factors point towards steady earnings recovery
by mid fiscal. If the Rain gods keep smiling, our economy and markets are in for a great re-rating. Till then, just hunt for
smart picks at the current peak.
TRADING ON TECHNICALS
Bullish > 30024 < Correction
By Hitendra Vasudeo
Sensex Daily Trend DRV Weekly Trend WRV Monthly Trend MRV Last week, the
Last Close 29706.6 Up 29292 Up 28713 Up 26886 Sensex opened
at 29737.73,
attained a high at 30007.73 and moved to a low at 29668.44 before it closed the week at 29706.6 and thereby showed a
net rise of 86 points on a week-to-week basis.
The breakout above 30024 still eludes the market as a result of which the index stocks do not show strength while mid-
caps and small-caps continued to display momentum until Friday.
Daily
The daily chart appears to show weakness. A negative
divergence on RSI was witnessed. On the daily chart,
we have a hanging man and spinning top. An In Bar
pattern on the daily chart and violation of the 2-day
low on Friday suggests that a momentary swing top for
minor correction is likely.
The first correction will be of the rise from 29137 to
30007. Retracement levels of the rise from 29137 to
30007 are placed at 29699-29585-29485.
The 10-day variable average, which showed an
uptrend from 29/12/2016 closing of 26366 is still in
an uptrend as the closing remains above it. The 10-day
variable average has offered support on its way up
from 26366 to 30007. The 10-day variable average is
at 29292, which could be tested in the near-term with volatility.

The higher bottom is at 29137, which could be under pressure if the Sensex does not provide a breakout and strong
weekly close above 30024 immediately.
The momentary bias appears to be down to test the 10-day variable average.
The 21-day EMA, another important average which behaves like the 10-day variable average, is moving up faster now
and the slope of the 21-day EMA has been up all along the rise since 26366 (29/12/2016).
The gap that was partially filled on 22/03/2017 made a low of 29137 against the gap of 29356-29006. The body gap
gets covered at 28946. To round it off, 28700 remains an important base for the short-to-medium-term.
The 23.6% retracement of the full rise from 25753 to 30007 is at 29028, which is very near to the body gap closer point
28946.
Therefore, expect support in the lower range of 29137-28700 in the near-to-short-term but correction towards these
levels cannot be ruled out till an immediate breakout and weekly close above 30024 is witnessed.
Weekly
On the weekly chart, the supply zone is 29162-30024, which was mentioned in this column several times in the last
couple of months.
The high registered last week was 30007 and close was 29706. The candle formation is a long legged doji with upper
tail/shooting star/inverted hammer. Large upper shadow means supply and resistance. Therefore, it is essential for the
Sensex to cross 30024 massively on the upside, otherwise expect a gradual drift down with volatility.
A momentary halt can be witnessed but all could be forgotten if a breakout and close above 30024 is witnessed.
Weekly resistance will be at 29794-29919-30024. Lower range for the week can be 29580-29241.
Monthly
The monthly chart for March 2017 is a strong candle with higher low and higher high for the third month in succession.
A subsequent breakout and close above 30024 with a bullish candle by the end of April 2017 indicates a rally towards
31100 and further to 34000-34600.
From the monthly chart angle, the Sensex cannot afford to remain and sustain below 29620 i.e. the closing of March
2017.
Quarterly
The quarterly chart for the Sensex appears to be the most dominant among all time frames showing the highest
quarterly closing with a bullish quarter candle. The impact of the same will be strong and will help push the Sensex
towards 34000-34600 in times to come with volatility.
A correction down to 28630 and 27436 in the coming quarter should be used for accumulation. It is critical for the
Sensex to witness a breakout and close on daily/weekly basis above 30024 to continue and maintain the positive
momentum.
The quarterly chart shows upsides of 34700 and 42100 as long as the bearish quarter candle is not witnessed by the end
of the quarter or June 2017 closing.
Trend based on Rate of Change (RoC)
Daily chart:
1-Day trend - Down
3-Day trend - Down Now follow us on Instagram, Facebook &
8-Day trend - Up Twitter at moneytimes_1991 on a daily basis
Weekly chart: to get a view of the stock market and the
happenings which many may not be aware of.
1-Week trend -Up
3-Week trend - Up
8-Week trend - Up
Monthly chart:
1-Month trend - Up
3-Month trend - Up
8-Month trend - Up

Quarterly chart:
1-Quarter trend - Up Evergreen
3-Quarter trend - Up
8-Quarter trend - Up WINNERS 2017
Yearly chart: Features 31 stocks identified as performers
1-Year trend - Up
3-Year trend - Up At launch on 1st January 2017, all 31 stocks were selected as
Winners but they must go up and down their journey providing
8-Year trend - Up
you an opportunity to buy / sell or accumulate during the year.
BSE Mid-Cap Index
Trend based on RoC Of the 31 stocks identified, 22 are gainers already.
Weekly chart: The Yearly Levels and Quarterly Levels provide for Profit
1-Week trend - Up Booking.
3-Week trend - Up
On Correction, the Lower Levels are for Accumulation at Yearly
8-Week trend - Up and Quarterly Levels.
The BSE Mid-Cap index is all set to
rally towards 15000 from the Stocks where Profit booking is witnessed and are correcting offer
current level of 14096, which means an opportunity for accumulation. Currently, 9 stocks have
that there is more room for an corrected and thus provide an opportunity for accumulation.
upside for stocks that constitute the
BSE Mid-Cap index. Most Important Reason to Subscribe Now
A momentary pause to the rise New Quarterly Levels will be issued at March 2017 end.
could be taking place for a minor
correction or consolidation and to Stocks that move up will offer a new range to capitalize on.
create a higher bottom before
moving higher again. Stocks that correct provide an opportunity at New Quarterly
An upside momentum will continue Levels.
above 14361. For more details, contact Money Times on
BSE Small-Cap Index 022-22616970/4805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
1-Week trend - Up
3-Week trend - Up
Subscribe today: Rs.6000 per annum
8-Week trend Up
The BSE Small-Cap index is rushing up and outperforming in the current rally. Expect 15000 to be tested and it could
spike higher towards 17000 from the current level of 14681.
The BSE Small-Cap index rushed to a high of 14848 last week, which suggests that small-cap stocks could be exhausting
the momentum shortly.
Profit-booking in stocks from the BSE Small-Cap index may be witnessed now as it tries to test the 15000 level in the
near-term.
Support is at 14466-14433. A halt to the rally and short-term top can be formed on a fall and close below 14433.
A correction and consolidation may be required in order to make an attempt to move higher substantially in times to
come.
Based on the monthly chart observation, the BSE Small-Cap index could rally to 21000 from the current level of 14433 in
the times to come with a back to back bull candle on the monthly chart.
A weakness could resume below 14400 on account of profit-booking and intermediate correction for another round of
consolidation.
Strategy for the week
Traders already long can revise upwards their stop loss to 28700. Expect profit-booking pressure in stocks from the BSE
Small-Cap index. Failure of the Sensex to sustain above 30024 appears to create pressure and BSE Small-Cap index
almost hit its first level of 15000 as the high registered was 14848.

Overall, the market shows strength but a correction and volatility in the near-to-short-term is likely if 30024 is not
crossed on a daily and weekly closing.
WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS

Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with
whatever low registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above
then look to book profits as the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change
from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Weekly Up
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Weak Demand Demand Supply Supply
below point point point point
RURAL ELECTRIFICATIO 183.70 179.3 179.8 183.2 187.2 194.6 78.9 176.7 23-02-17
EDELWEISS FINANCIAL 181.55 156.8 163.8 174.6 192.3 220.8 78.8 153.8 10-02-17
R.C.F.(RASHTRIYA CHE 82.45 78.7 79.3 81.8 85.0 90.6 73.0 73.8 17-03-17
INDUSIND BANK 1412.00 1392.0 1394.0 1410.0 1428.0 1462.0 70.1 1399.0 17-03-17
CENTURY TEXT.& IND. 1067.00 1048.0 1048.3 1066.7 1085.3 1122.3 69.8 1035.5 27-01-17
WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS

Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with whatever
high registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to
cover short positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down
Trend to Up Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Weekly Down
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
BOMBAY RAYON FASHION 121.35 109.2 118.1 123.8 127.1 129.6 28.32 132.91 03-03-17
DIVI'S LABORATORIES 622.45 595.6 615.2 627.4 634.7 639.7 29.03 658.15 24-03-17
COAL INDIA 283.95 258.9 276.7 287.4 294.6 298.0 35.46 291.14 10-03-17
PERSISTENT SYSTEMS 570.75 525.2 559.0 581.0 592.8 603.0 37.18 600.75 24-03-17
MINDTREE 446.90 424.6 440.4 449.6 456.2 458.9 38.44 460.61 24-03-17
*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend.
Close below averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility
(Up/Down) within Down Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative
Strength (RS) is statistical indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.
EXIT LIST
Last Supply Supply Supply Demand Monthly

Scrip Strong Above
Close Point Point Point Point RS
WIM PLAST 1439.00 1462.69 1476.50 1490.31 1535.00 1345.69 42.8
BUY LIST
Scrip Last Close Demand point Demand point Demand Point Weak below Supply Point Monthly RS
MERCK 1137.00 1122.9 1105.5 1088.2 1032.00 1269.85 65.83
FUTURE CONSUMER 34.40 33.3 32.5 31.7 29.05 40.05 61.13
BHARAT ELECTRONICS 167.50 165.1 163.9 162.6 158.50 175.89 59.85
TVS MOTOR COMPANY 468.50 457.4 452.2 447.0 430.00 501.84 57.1

PUNTER PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a
possible time frame of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above, RS- Strength
Last Weak Supply RS-

Scrip BSE Code Demand Point Trigger Supply point Strength
Close below point
TT 514142 61.30 59.10 66.00 55.60 72.4 82.8 73.4
VISHALBL 539398 33.00 32.50 33.00 30.65 34.5 36.8 60.73
ALKALI METALS 533029 83.25 81.10 85.50 74.00 92.6 104.1 57.46
PARSVNATH DEVELOPERS 532780 14.73 13.30 15.55 12.00 17.7 21.3 52.98
TAYO ROLLS 504961 56.20 54.50 58.35 52.10 62.2 68.5 51.46
CHEMBOND CHEMICALS 530871 198.25 188.70 204.00 181.55 217.9 240.3 50.35
*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend.
Close below averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility
(Up/Down) within Down Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.
! Note: Momentum breakout trend of stocks value(volume*close) between 10-80 lakhs.
TOWER TALK
Karnataka Bank is likely to post strong earnings in Q4 on account of rising NIMs and falling NPAs. Its CASA ratio is
also improving. The stock may soon rise to Rs.172. Buy for quick gains.
PVR has made a strategic investment in Cineline India, which owns a chain of multiplexes, malls and earns rental
income from its let out properties and advertisement revenue. The stock is poised to touch Rs.125.
Marico plans to hike its Parachute coconut oil prices. A positive for the Company.
Speciality chemicals major, Bodal Chemicals, is set for a huge upsurge in its share price. The management is
optimistic about the future with enhancement of capacities. Moreover, the Company will benefit from Chinas
production cut.
Reliance Industries has obtained a nod for its Rs.13000 crore Dahej Plant, which is a big positive and indicates
better times ahead.
Reliance Capital is in talks with Chinese firms to exit Prime Focus. This makes Prime Focus a good buy as it may
benefit from change in promoters.
ONGC is likely to spend ~Rs.65000 crore for fresh
explorations in Cauvery Basin. A big positive for this
Navratna Company. Relative Strength (RS)
Bharat Forge, Indias largest auto part maker, plans to Signals a stocks ability to perform in a dynamic
raise $500 mn via offshore bonds to meet its market.
expansion plans and restructure its debt. A big positive Knowledge of it can lead you to profits.
for the Company. POWER OF RS - at Rs.3100 for 1 year:
UPL is optimistic of a 12-15% growth and 22-23% What you get
EBITDA margins over the next few years. The stock Most Important- Association for 1 year at Rs.3100
has the potential to rise by 25% in the next few 1-2 buy / sell per day on a daily basis
months. 1 buy per week
Gammon Infrastructure Projects has bought out its 1 buy per month
Spanish partner Noatum Ports (Indira Container 1 buy per quarter
Terminal) and raised its stake to 74%. This positive 1 buy per year
move may take its share price higher. For more details, contact Money Times on
022-22616970/4805 or
Vedanta has redeemed in cash its outstanding 9.5%
moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
bonds ($379 mn in face value) which are maturing in
July 2018. This clearly indicates that the Company is
flush with funds.
Sector up-gradation and heavy rural buying has prompted analysts to re-rate Bajaj Auto. Bullish signals point to a
big jump in its share price.

Adani Ports has charted out a green path for growth by adopting lower energy and operating cost by 10-15%.
The automobile and farm equipment sectors are doing well. Mahindra & Mahindra appears to be the best pick
especially as tractor sales seem to be picking up.
Even after the recent buyback, MOIL is left with huge cash reserves (~Rs.2000 crore) which are bulging every day. A
hefty dividend and a bonus issue may be on the cards. A good buy.
Wockhardt may be in the limelight again as USFDA has agreed for abridged clinical trials for its antibiotic molecule.
The stock has underperformed in the current bull run and this news may fuel a rally.
Mukesh Ambani holds a strategic stake in the telecom company HFCL. HFCL is rumoured to be a big beneficiary of
business from Reliance-owned Jio. Investors with a risk appetite may take a long-term plunge in this already profit-
making company.
Shemaroo Entertainment, a film entertainment
content house which also distributes content for TV
For the busy investor
channels, is rumoured to have entered into a
strategic tie-up with Hathway. It is expected to post Fresh One Up Trend Daily
excellent results for the next few quarters. Its share Fresh One Up Trend Daily is for investors/traders who are
price may soon touch Rs.482. keen to focus and gain from a single stock every
Joindre Capital Services is the cheapest stock trading day.
available in the broking space trading at Rs.22
With just one daily recommendation selected from
against its share book value of Rs.33. The Company
stocks in an uptrend, you can now book profit the same
has paid dividends consistently. The stocks all-time
high is Rs.90 and it can easily appreciate by 50%. day or carry over the trade if the target is not met. Our
review over the next 4 days will provide new exit levels
Mukta Arts has finally caught the fancy of large
while the stock is still in an uptrend.
investors, which suggests that the Company is in for
good times ahead. This low risk, high return product is available for online
Tata Elxsi will sooner or later merge into TCS. With subscription at Rs.2500 per month.
promoter holding at just 44% in Tata Elxsi and 73% Contact us on 022-22616970 or email us at
in TCS, Tata Elxsi should benefit immensely. Watch moneytimes.suppport@gmail.com for a free trial.
the stock zoom to Rs.2000 soon.
McDonalds has renovated its outlets to offer a new dining experience. Also, its McCaffe has been a hit. Westlife
Development is the owner of the franchise. The stock, which has been languishing for years, has finally seen
interest in the bourses now. Buy on every decline.
Majesco has fallen to Rs.380 from its 52-week high of Rs.650. Investors with a risk appetite can buy the stock for
short-to-medium gains.
According to sources, UFO Moviez India may notch an EPS of Rs.23 in FY17 and Rs.32 in FY18. The stock is poised
to touch Rs.640. Heavy investment buying was reported in this counter.
Talwalkar Better Value Fitness may post an EPS of Rs.22 in FY17 and Rs.27 in FY18. A reasonable P/E of 12.5x will
take its share price to Rs.338 in the medium-to-long-term.
Some interested HNIs and funds have been actively buying Century Enka, which posted an EPS of Rs.12 in Q3FY17
and Rs.31 in 9MFY17 and is likely to notch an EPS of Rs.45 in FY17. A conservative P/E of 12.5x will take its share
price to Rs.563 in the short run.
Rico Auto Industries may be bought for decent gains in the medium term as its on-going capex is likely to be EPS
accretive. The stock may cross Rs.100 in the long run following the path of Suprajit Engineering.
Most sugar stocks are trading at their all-time highs. Buy Bajaj Hindustan Sugar, Thiru Arooran Sugars and Riga
Sugar Company for 50% returns in the short term. These stocks are trading on the lower side in terms of
Sales/Market Cap.
Grey market premium for the IPO of Hudco is Rs.28-29 and the cost of its minimum application form is Rs.1150-
1175.
An Ahmedabad-based analyst recommends B.L. Kashyap & Sons, Sankhya Infotech, GTN Industries,
Indraprastha Medical Corporation and Tokyo Plast International. His Shilchar Technologies recommended at
Rs.385 on 20 March 2017, zoomed to Rs.510 last week; Filatex India recommended at Rs.72 on 16 January 2017,
zoomed to Rs.140 last week; Sanwaria Agro Oils recommended at Rs.7.15 on 9 January 2017, zoomed to Rs.11.35
last week; and Akar Tools recommended at Rs.46 on 5 December 2016, zoomed to Rs.75 last week.

BEST BET
Oriental Carbon and Chemicals Ltd
(BSE Code: 506579) (CMP: Rs.996.95) (FV: Rs.10)
By Amit Kumar Gupta
Oriental Carbon & Chemicals Ltd (OCCL) is a holding company engaged in the production of insoluble sulphur for the
tyre and rubber industry. Its segments include Chemicals (including Insoluble Sulphur [IS], Sulphuric Acid and Oleum);
Automotive Products; and Fluid Power and Automation. It manufactures both commercial grade and battery grade
sulphuric acid and oleums. It offers sulphuric acid for use as a dehydrating agent, catalyst, active reactant in chemical
processes, solvent and absorbent and for use in industries from dilute concentrations for potential of hydrogen (pH)
control of saline solutions to strong fuming acids used in the dye, explosives and pharmaceutical industries. Its
production capacity of insoluble sulphur is ~22,000 TPA. Its manufacturing facilities are located at Dharuhera in
Haryana and Mundra in Gujarat. It has a subsidiary - Schrader Duncan Ltd.
As per industry estimates, the global IS market as of CY15 was at ~264 KT dominated by three major players. USA-based
Eastman Chemicals who is the market leader with ~70% market share followed by Japan-based Shikoku with ~15%
market share. OCCL with total sales volume of 20-22 KT is the third player with ~10% market share. Globally, the
demand for IS is expected to grow at 3-4% CAGR over the next few years while domestic demand is expected to grow at
over 10% CAGR due to the robust demand for automobiles and growing trend of radialisation of tyres in the commercial
vehicles segment (penetration at ~30%).
OCCLs operated at ~90% capacity utilization in FY16. Sensing the potential, the Company plans to enhance its
brownfield capacity by 11,000 tonnes in two phases. The first phase of 5,500 tonnes was commissioned in December
2016 (four months ahead of schedule). With strong customer relationship, focus on further penetration in the Chinese
and North American markets and rising product demand, we expect the Company to report a healthy volume led growth
over FY17-19. We expect its insoluble sulphur sales volume to grow at ~12% CAGR over FY17-19 to ~28.4 KT in FY19
from 22.7 KT in FY17.
OCCL is a speciality chemical company with a unique product profile,
Valuation Summary:
limited competition and sustainable strong EBITDA margins (28%+)
Particulars FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
and return ratios (RoIC: 20%+). It has a healthy balance sheet profile
with FY16 debt to equity ratio at 0.3x and average CFO in FY14-16 at P/E 17.5 17.1 14.8 12.6
~Rs.60 crore (yield ~6.5%). With early commissioning of its brownfield EV/EBITDA 12 11.8 9.7 8.1
capacity and robust product demand, we expect sales and PAT to grow P/BV 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.1
at 14% and 16.6% CAGR respectively in FY17-19. We value OCCL at RoNW 18.5 16.5 16.4 16.8
Rs.1125 i.e. 17x P/E (1x PEG) on FY18E and FY19E average EPS of RoCE 16.6 14.1 15 18.5
Rs.66.2. ROIC 20.8 16.9 20.8 20.4
Technical Outlook: The Oriental Carbon & Chemicals Ltd stock looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term
investment. It is moving in a strong uptrend making a higher high and higher low formation with good volumes. The
stock trades above its 200 DMA level.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.996.95 and on dips to Rs.921.95 for medium-to-long-term investment and a
possible price target of Rs.1250+ in the next 12 months.
GURU SPEAK
RBI policy hurts bullish sentiment
Last week, the stock market was neither enthusiastic nor worried about the RBI Monetary Policy,
which was scheduled to be announced on Thursday, 6 April 2017. The market fluctuations till
Thursday were quite normal pre as well as post monetary policy announcement. Thus, this event
which was considered big during Raghuram Rajans term as RBI Governor is now proving to be
non-event now.
This was the third Monetary Policy meeting under the new RBI Governor, Mr. Urjit Patel, who
By G. S. Roongta adopted a hawkish stance as far as change in Repo rates and CRR is concerned. It is indeed a
great irony that the new RBI governor has consumed nearly half the year keeping interest rates

unchanged.
The stock market was positive on the first two days as it had displayed some weakness and hesitance after the F&O
expiry week before last on Thursday, 30 March 2017, closing in the red. This was in sharp contrast to the normal trend
of the market rising by several hundred points the day after F&O expiry with the outstanding positions rolled over to
next month at a premium. The market, however, closed higher on a week-to-week basis gaining 199 points at 29620.50
followed by the Nifty gaining 66 points at 9174. Even though the market crossed the 52-week high, it did not cross its
all-time high level.
Both the key benchmarks made an attempt to cross their all-time highs last week. The Nifty luckily succeeded in its
attempt to hit record high while the Sensex failed to cross its all-time high of 30024 falling short by just 14 points.
Lets have a look at the market fluctuations last week:
Sensex The market advanced on the first three trading
Date Open High Low Close Gain/Loss sessions of the week till Thursday, 6 April 2017,
03/04/17 29737.73 29926.94 29705.72 29910.22 289.72 the day of RBIs monetary policy
05/04/17 29996.03 30007.48 29817.69 29974.24 64.02 announcement. The Sensex had gained 307
06/04/17 29946.89 29954.25 29817.59 29927.34 (46.90) points in three days, which is higher than the
entire previous weeks gain of 199 points. The
Net Gain in 3 days 306.84
Nifty rose faster and higher compared to the
Nifty
Sensex due to huge speculations in Nifty
Date Open High Low Close Gain/Loss Futures. Nifty thus gained 88 points over the
03/04/17 9220.60 9245.35 9192.40 9237.85 64.10 same period and hit record high while the
05/04/17 9264.40 9273.90 9215.40 9265.15 27.30 Sensex is yet languishing and shy of hitting its
06/04/17 9245.80 9267.95 9218.85 9261.95 (3.20) all-time high of 30024.
Net Gain in 3 days 88.20 I have been advocating week after week that
The stock market was closed on Tuesday, 4 April 2017, on account of the market trend is bullish and is likely to stay
Ram Navami bullish throughout 2017-18. Any profit-booking
by way of correction should be construed as part of the operators game plan which was evident from the market
hesitating on Friday, 31 March 2017, after the F&O expiry. Otherwise, what was the rationale behind the market gaining
by 290 points the next trading session on Monday, 3 April 2017? It is quite evident that market participants are
consistently misled and influenced by the numbers game without understanding the market trend in its true perspective
and change their stance quite off and on based on the technical calls.
Readers may also recall that I have been strongly advocating that the current bull run will be more favourable for mid-
cap and small-cap stocks as also highlighted in our two newsletters Roongtas Panchratna and Mid-Cap Twins
wherein I have clearly stated that the current market euphoria will be led by mid-cap and small-cap stocks which are
rising faster than the popular indices in percentage terms.
Readers will be happy to know that Money Times is ahead by a year or more to forecast this trend whereas the leading
media, which is ranked No.1 for its corporate analysis, published its outlook on mid-caps in its newsprint dated 4 April
2017 in its Money Matter column headlined Mid-Cap stocks look more vulnerable than large-caps. It is reassuring for
readers to find that Money Times recommendations are more reliable and ahead of others whether it be print media or
TV channels despite the fact they are fully equipped with huge research resources.
Another bullish factor that I have highlighted in the last 4-5 issues is about FIIs turning net buyers in the Indian stock
market. This, too, was covered by other print media but a month later on Tuesday, 4 April 2017, in ET markets Sensex
inches closer to 30K, Nifty ends above 9200; Bulls kick-off the New Year in style on strong foreign inflows. Again on 6
April 2017, ET in its front page reported Institutional investors fund bull party on Dalal Street.
The market has been bullish as reiterated by us again and again giving day to day FII inflows since the last two months.
But ET Bureau realized this now when the market is on the verge of an all-time high. So, timely news at the right time
benefits investors more than when the event reaches the helm.
How the market reacts to RBIs monetary policy decision should be cautiously watched over the next 2-3 days as experts
and analysts have already commented that the market is overbought and a correction is round the corner. Or that the
market needs consolidation of the current gains of over 2,000-2500 points for the Sensex and 700 points for the Nifty. In
view of this, investors must trade cautiously by taking fresh positions or booking profits whenever the market crosses
its all-time high because profit booking from all quarters is not ruled out. However, it all depends on the mood of FIIs
and strategy of bull operators whether to remain bullish or take a short break in the pursuit of consolidation.

Some sectors are still bullish with several specific stocks still making fresh highs. The list of stocks making 52-week or
fresh new highs is expanding by every passing day. Prominent among them are -
Akzo Nobel India closed at Rs.1970 on 5 April 2017; Ashoka Buildcon at Rs.210; Avanti Feeds at Rs.848; Bharat Rasayan
at Rs.3100; Blue Star (recommended in Money Times) at Rs.725; Century Textiles Industries (recommended in Money
Times by Archana Jain at Rs.225) at Rs.1080; Dalmia Bharat at Rs.2100; DCM Shriram at Rs.314; Finolex Cables at
Rs.554; Garware Wall Ropes at Rs.734; Graphite India (Rs.2 paid-up) at Rs.137; KEC International at Rs.223; Larsen &
Toubro at Rs.1700; Maruti Suzuki India at Rs.6360; National Steel & Agro Industries (recommended in Panchratna) at
Rs.28; Phillips Carbon Black (recommended in this column) at Rs.375; Andhra Sugars (recommended in this column) at
Rs.328.
There are hundreds of stocks that have recorded new all-time highs or fresh 52-week highs, which clearly proves that
mid-cap and small-cap stocks have been the star performers in FY17 and will continue to be so in FY18. So, investors
must follow the mid-cap and small-cap recommendations published in Money Times and its newsletters for handsome
returns rather than rush for quick gains in the F&O segment.
Roongtas Panchratna and Mid-Cap Twins published on 1 April 2017 have again met investors expectations having
appreciated handsomely in 3-4 days itself. To get hold of even past issues at concessional rates has helped some investor
because these are long-term recommendations.
National Steel & Agro Industries as reported earlier gained
50% in the last 2-3 months. KEC International too made Mid-caps or Mad-caps?
an all-time high. Andhra Sugars appreciated over 150% 2017 will be a watershed year in the history of
and Phillips Carbon Black appreciated over 250% within a stock market as it takes off from a weak closure of
year. Century Textiles Industries also made an all-time 2016.
high. Similarly, almost 50% of Panchratna and Mid-Cap Leading the charge will be the Mid-caps that are
Twins stocks are still making new highs. likely to outperform the large-caps or index
So, it is up to the investors on what to rely and what to stocks. Another forecast made by Mr. G.S. Roongta.
ignore.
The RBI policy proved to be stable neither negative nor To encash this opportunity, Money Times has
positive. Let us see how it is looked upon by banks and launched Roongtas Mid-cap Twins comprising
financial markets with Repo rates unchanged and reverse two mid-cap recommendations every month
repo rates hiked to 6%. MSF rate too was revised to 6.5% beginning 1st August 2016.
from 6.75%. CRR was kept unchanged at 4%. The RBI has Attractively priced at Rs.2000 per month,
forecast retail inflation to rise to 5% from the current level Rs.11000 half yearly and Rs.20,000 annually,
of 4.5%. 5% was earlier looked upon as satisfaction level Roongtas Mid-cap Twins will be available both as
by the RBI. So what is so serious about it which made the print edition or online delivery.
RBI Governor take a hawkish stance for the third time Latest edition of Mid-Cap Twins was released on
again? 1st April 2017
The market as expected was hesitant on Friday, 7 Aprilth Please book your subscription
2017.
The RBI Governor expects pressure on consumer goods going forward and wanted to curve the excess liquidity in the
hands of banks arising on account of the black money deposited in the banks post demonetisation.
Thus, the bi-monthly monetary policy announced last week will benefit neither the Banks nor the business community
and trade as a whole.
The market has not welcomed the RBI policy and hence, it is quite natural for the market to react negativity. The market
is, therefore, expected to be rangebound till the Sensex does not hit its all-time high of 30024. The sensitive levels of the
market have been hit temporarily and it may take some time to restore confidence in the market participants.
STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta
Delta Corp Ltd

(BSE Code: 532848) (CMP: Rs.181.80) (FV: Re.1) (TGT: Rs.250+)
Delta Corp Ltd (DCL) is a holding company engaged in the casino operations. Its segments include Real Estate, Gaming,
Hospitality and Others. It operates its gaming and hospitality businesses under the Deltin brand. It owns three casinos

in Goa, which include Deltin Royale, Deltin JAQK and Deltin Caravela. It also owns two hotels including Deltin Suites and
Deltin Palms in Goa. Deltin Suites has 106+ rooms and offers facilities including 2 restaurants, lounge bar, spa, gym and
swimming pool. Deltin Palms is a boutique hotel with 27+ rooms. It also owns a 176 room five star hotel in Daman The
Deltin, which offers banquet facility with 3 bars, 4 speciality restaurants, ~29,000 sq.ft. of indoor events and over 8,000
sq.ft. high-end retail space. Its subsidiaries include Atled Technologies Pvt Ltd and Delta Pan Africa Ltd.
Price Waterhouse Coopers (PWC) estimated the global
gaming casino market in 2015 at $183 bn and that it had
grown at 7% CAGR over the last 10 years. The Asia Pacific
Profitrak Weekly
region had led growth with 21.5% CAGR. In India, gaming is A complete guide for Trading and Investments
just emerging as an industry. Given its paltry size of ~$150 based on Technicals
mn, the growth potential is huge.
What you Get?
DCL is awaiting regulatory approvals for a casino housed in
1) Weekly Market Outlook of the
Damans only five-star hotel. Given its locational advantage,
Sensex
Daman is likely to attract higher footfalls than Goa. We Nifty
expect the Company to replicate its success in Goas offshore Bank Nifty
casino market in Daman. Approval of the Daman casino has 2) Sectoral View of Strong/Weak/Market Perfomer
the potential to nearly double its gaming capacity to 3,000. indices
The Company would be in a better position to exploit the 3) Weekly Trading Signals
potential that this nascent industry offers. 4) Stock Views and Updates every week
Globally, online gaming is still a nascent industry and is legal 5) Winners for trading and investing for medium-
in a very few countries. However, it is increasingly becoming to-long term till March 2018
popular, with legal online gaming accounting for 3% of the 6) Winners of 2017 with fresh Weekly Signals on
global gaming revenue. In India too, it is at a nascent stage. the same
Some of the popular names in India are
Adda52.com, ace2three.com, pokerbaazi.com and Spartan Application of this product can be explained on the
Telephone or via Skype or Team Viewer.
Poker. The size of the global online gaming industry is
estimated at $110-120 mn. To capitalize on the opportunity,
For 1 full year with interaction,
DCL recently acquired Gauss Network, which owns
rush and subscribe to Profitrak Weekly
Adda52.com (online poker), for Rs.210 crore in part cash and
part equity deal likely to be completed by April 2017.
Subscription Rate: 1 month: Rs.2500; 1 year: Rs.12000
Ace2three.com, the largest rummy site, generated about
Rs.1665 mn revenue with PAT of Rs.617 mn in FY16. DCL is For more details, contact Money Times on
open to further acquisitions in the online gaming space. We 022-22616970/4805 or
believe that there will be significant cross-selling moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
opportunities between its casino and online gaming
businesses.
DCL is at an inflection point. The investment phase is over and approval of the Daman casino and merger & acquisition
(M&A) opportunities in online gaming could trigger significant growth and cash generation as well as improve
RoCE/RoE. We expect RoE to improve from 9% to 17% over FY17-19.
The stock trades at 24.7x/22.1x FY18E/19E EPS, 8.4x/6.2x FY18E/19E EV/EBITDA and 3.4/3.6x FY18E/19E P/BV. Its
premium valuations vis--vis its peers in the global space is manifested by its strong earnings outlook, a near monopoly
in the casino space in India and potential approval of the Daman casino. Hence, we assign a P/E multiple of 30x (~40%
premium) to its global peers.
Technical Outlook: The Delta Corp Ltd stock looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It has
broken out of the saucer pattern and trades above all important DMA levels on the daily chart.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.181.80 and on dips to Rs.161 for medium-to-long-term investment for the possible
price target of Rs.250+ in the next 6 months.
*******
Power Finance Corporation Ltd

(BSE Code: 532810) (CMP: Rs.152.25) (FV: Rs.10) (TGT: Rs.180+)
Power Finance Corporation Ltd (PFC) is a non-banking financial company engaged in the business of financing power
companies. Its principal products/services include interest on loans and income from other services. Its principal

business is to provide financial assistance to the power sector. Its fund-based financial policies/products include takeout
financing, asset acquisition, bridge loan, buyer's line of credit, credit facility for purchase of power through power
exchange, financing of fuel supply projects and equipment manufacturers, lease financing for purchase of equipments,
lease financing for wind power projects and line of credit for import of coal. Its non-fund based financial
policies/products include guarantee, letter of comfort and policy for guarantee for credit enhancement. It also provides
consultancy and capital advisory services. Its subsidiaries include PFC Consulting Ltd, PFC Green Energy Ltd and PFC
Capital Advisory Services Ltd.
Out of Rs.48,800 crore discom debt, Rs.23,900 crore loan amount was repaid till Q3FY17 under UDAY (Ujwal DISCOM
Assurance Yojana) and recently another Rs.9000 crore was repaid by Tamil Nadu having signed the MoU. With 65% of
discom debt already repaid, not much further run-down will be seen with the implementation of UDAY. Against this
backdrop, the growing demand for refinancing, working capital and traction in other avenues (renewable and
generation segments, among others) is likely to boost PFCs disbursements growth to over 35% YoY in FY17 which will
push up its loan growth to near 4-5% levels v/s our earlier expectation of 0-2%.
PFCs portfolio has 17% (Rs.39,400 crore) exposure to the private power sector, of which Rs.21,000 crore is
restructured and Rs.7300 crore is NPLs (Non-Performing Loans). Lower provisioning coverage on overall stressed pool
was an overhang on the stock. However in Q3FY17, the Companys NPLs and restructured pool witnessed an upgrade.
Further, few projects namely Maheshwar, RKM Powergen and Ratan India are seeing positive developments with
respect to commissioning of few units.
UDAY implementation and structural improvement in state utilities across the value chain will exert pressure on lending
yields. We expect yields to decline by 100-150 bps over the next 2 years. However, funding cost benefit will also reflect
as liabilities come for re-pricing, which will enable PFC to structurally maintain >2.5% spreads and >3.5% margins.
Valuations: We had been skeptical about implementation of UDAY as well as performance of some private sector
stressed exposure, which posed risks to PFCs earnings. While it has played out to some extent, the impact was milder
than envisaged. Even though there are some more stressed exposures, we believe significant recognition is unlikely in
the near-to-medium-term.
Technical Outlook: The Power Finance Corporation Ltd stock looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term
investment. It is moving in a strong uptrend and trading at its 200 DMA level.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.152.25 and on dips to Rs.135 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.180+ in the next 12 months.
STOCK BUZZ
By Subramanian Mahadevan
Sun TV Network Ltd: Profitable returns

Chennai-based Sun TV Network Ltd (Sun TV) is a Tamil satellite television channel largely owned, founded and operated
by Kalanidhi Maran. Sun TV is India's largest media conglomerate that has power packed 33 TV channels and 45 FM
radio stations in several Indian languages reaching 95+ million households in India with viewership spread across 27
countries.
The Company posted excellent numbers for H1FY17 with PAT of Rs.503.41 crore on a turnover of Rs.1386.32 crore v/s
PAT of Rs.417.89 crore on a turnover of Rs.1257 crore in H1FY16. We expect steady advertising growth coupled with
DTH traction to continue leading to superb margins of over 31% for FY17 and beyond. A big axe hanging around the
promoters in the form of the AircelMaxis legal tussle is now completely done away with as the Maran brothers came
out clean without any wrong doings by the apex court.
The stock has given phenomenal returns of over 125% since our recommendation on 25 January 2016. It is advisable to
book profits now and re-enter after a meaningful correction for solid returns in the years to come.
********
RBL Bank Ltd: Expensive bank

Kolhapur-based RBL Bank Ltd (RBL) is a private sector bank incorporated in 1943. It has transitioned into a new-age
private bank over the last six years growing aggressively under the aegis of the new management that took over in 2010.

Over the last five years, the Bank has nearly doubled its branch network to over 197 branches from 100 and gradually
widened its presence across different states of the country concentrated mainly in the western part of India with more
than half of its branches in Maharashtra. The new management fueled by fresh talent brought in from other private
banks has been instrumental in the strong growth of the Bank over the last six years. Its earnings have grown around
46% annually between FY12 and FY16 driven by strong loan growth of about 50% annually during this period.
RBL mainly caters to the working capital needs of large corporates and SMEs (Small & Medium Enterprises). While this
segment still accounts for 60% of the Banks loans, its share has come down over the past couple of years as the
management has been pursuing growth in other segments such as retail (17% of loans), agriculture (8%) and micro-
finance (14%). Despite the aggressive growth in loans over the last couple of years, the Bank has managed to keep bad
loans under check with gross non-performing assets (NPAs) at 1% of loans. Its restructured loans are also low at 0.09%.
RBLs IPO, which hit the capital market in August 2016 with P/BV of around 2.1x (post IPO valuation), has delivered
over 100% returns to investors within eight months. However, considering the huge run-up in its share price and few
headwinds like low return ratios, average RoE and poor CASA deposits compared to most of its peers will be a challenge
going forward. Also, aggressive branch expansion to widen its deposit base will lead to higher costs and lower
profitability. The stocks current P/BV of more than 5x is quite expensive for a small regional bank like RBL aspiring to
become the next Yes Bank with significant national presence. Book profits and re-enter at lower levels.
STOCK SCAN
Dena Bank: A worthy buy
By Archana Jain
Dena Bank was incorporated in May 1938 by the Devkaran Nanjee family as Devkaran Nanjee Banking Company. It
became a Public Limited Company in December 1939 where-after its name was changed to Dena Bank. The Bank
completed 79 years of existence in March 2017. It is one of the most prestigious banks of India with a good market
share. It is among the few banks to receive World Bank loan for technological upgradation and training. It is also the first
bank to introduce the Minor Savings scheme, credit cards in rural India (Dena Krishi Sakh Patra), Drive-in ATM counter
at Juhu in Mumbai and customer rating system for rating bank services. Its products and services include Personal
Banking, Priority and SME Banking, Corporate Finance, NRI Banking, etc.
Transformation through technology: Dena Bank established E-Smart centres where customers can deposit cash,
deposit cheques, withdraw cash, get their passbooks printed and access their account through the internet banking
facility at any hour of the day. As at 31 March 2016, the Bank had 74 E-Smart centres. During FY17, it proposed to
provide the following technology-enabled services i) Point of Sale (POS) terminals; ii) 1,200 new ATMs; iii) new E-
Smart centres; iv) Digital Wallet; v) TAB Banking; vi) IRCTC Payment through Debit Card; vii) Collection of Fees for
Educational Institutions through its portal; viii) Loyalty Program for usage of Debit Cards; and ix) establishment of Next
Generation Digital Branch.
New initiatives: Some of the new
schemes/products/enhancements introduced during Free 2-day trial of Live Market Intra-day Calls
the year include - Dena Earn More, Dena Stree Shakti, A running commentary of intra-day trading
NRIs Deposit (Compounded Interest Payment), Dena recommendations with buy/sell levels, targets, stop loss on
Equipment Finance Scheme, Dena Professional Loan your mobile every trading day of the moth along with pre-
Scheme, Modified Vehicle loan Scheme, Dena Solar market notes via email for Rs.4000 per month.
(financing scheme for solar powered systems), Pre- Contact Money Times on 022-22616970 or
Approved Loan Facility, Dena Online Locker Booking moneytimes.support@gmail.com to register for a free trial.
Facility, Online Registration for Internet Banking and
Mobile Banking facility.
Expansion: As at 31 March 2016, the Bank had 1,846 Branches. It added 107 new branches during FY16. It recruited
226 Probationary Officers, 150 Specialist Officers, 486 clerks and 134 sub-staff members. Its workforce as at FY16
comprised 13,906 employees of which 3,684 are women.
Performance: Key highlights of Dena Banks performance during FY16 are:
Business Mix of the Bank surpassed Rs.2 lakh crore for the first time reaching Rs.203242 crore in FY16 from
Rs.196565 crore in FY15.

Total Deposits grew to
Financial Highlights (Standalone): (Rs. in crore)
Rs.117431 crore from
Rs.115936 crore in FY15. Particulars FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12
Savings Bank Deposits grew Interest earned 10645.73 10763.49 9978.47 8899.39 6794.13
9% to Rs.28067 crore from
Rs.25706 crore in FY15. Interest expended 8168.99 8315.62 7473.39 6516.29 4693.13
CASA as a percentage to Total Net Interest Income 2476.74 2447.87 2505.08 2383.1 2101
Deposits improved by 156 bps Other income 716.8 721.33 916.73 655.46 582.17
at 29.27%.
Total Advances grew 6.4% to Operating expenses 2268.24 1838.92 1647.78 1299.7 1154.74
Rs.85811 crore from Rs.80629 Operating Profit 925.3 1330.28 1774.03 1738.86 1528.43
crore in FY15. Provisions (other than for
In a year of lean credit off- tax) & contingencies 2476.19 1262.62 1516.07 706.44 562.26
take, it posted an impressive
PBT 1550.89 67.66 257.96 1032.42 966.17
performance in credit flow to
vital sectors of the economy Tax (615.57) (197.82) (293.7) 222.04 163.03
such as Agriculture and Retail. PAT (before Minority
Its credit to Agriculture and Int. & share of Associates) (935.32) 265.48 551.66 810.38 803.14
Retail sectors grew 37.5% and EPS (in Rs.) -15.5 4.94 14.4 23.15 24.08
10.5% respectively. Dividend (%) - 0.9 2.2 4.7 3
Priority Sector Advances grew
19.9% to Rs.34117 crore and constituted 40.23% of Adjusted Net Bank Credit (ANBC) surpassing the regulatory
minimum of 40%.
Agricultural Advances at Rs.15912 crore constituted 18.77% of ANBC surpassing the regulatory minimum of 18%.
The Bank reduced its high cost deposits which resulted in reduction of interest paid on deposits to Rs.7717 crore
from Rs.7989 crore in FY15.
Cost of Deposits reduced by 46 bps at 7.2%.
The Bank posted operating profit of Rs.925.3 crore and net loss of Rs.935.32 crore, because of which it did not pay
any dividend for FY16.
Gross NPAs stood at Rs.8560 crore (9.98%) v/s Rs.4393 crore (5.45%) during FY15.
Net NPAs stood at Rs.5230 crore (6.35%) v/s Rs.3014 crore (3.82%) during FY15.
Cash recovery in NPA accounts grew to Rs.728 crore from Rs.595 crore in FY15.
Recovery in Written-Off accounts more than doubled to Rs.73 crore from Rs.34 crore in FY15.
Capital to Risk (Weighted) Asset Ratio (CRAR) under Basel III improved to 11% v/s 10.93% as at FY15, against the
regulatory requirement of 9.625%.
The Tier-I capital ratio of the Bank improved to 8.59% from 7.67% as at FY15, against the regulatory requirement of
7.625%.
Equity Capital & Reserves: Its equity Capital Structure (Rs. in crore)
capital has grown 18% YoY to Rs. Particulars FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12
666.93. Its reserves are 10 times its
Equity Share
equity capital. 666.93 561.15 537.82 350.06 350.06
Capital
Book Value: The stocks CMP is almost Reserves &
half of its share book value, which Surplus 6474.54 6878.98 6604.67 5413.95 3941.45
makes it worth buying.
Deposits 117430.96 115936.08 110027.69 97207.15 77166.8
Dividend: The Bank has maintained an Borrowings 6271.33 3436 5160.93 8413.66 3880.95
average dividend yield of 3.15% over
Book Value
the last five financial years. 107.08 132.59 132.81 164.66 122.59
(in Rs.)
Industry: During FY16, the
Government of India launched Indradhanush, a comprehensive framework for improving the functioning of Public
Sector Banks in seven key areas. Further, the RBI introduced regulatory reforms such as Strategic Debt Restructuring
(SDR) and Flexible Structuring Scheme to address the issues faced by large borrowers under distress. The Asset Quality

Review (AQR) by the RBI is another path-breaking measure for correct and transparent disclosure of the asset portfolios
of banks. AQR is aimed at having clean and fully provisioned bank balance sheets by March 2017. In the short run, the
measures taken for cleaning up the balance sheets of banks have impaired their profitability. However, in the long-run,
this will enable banks to support sustainable and profitable economic growth.
Economic Overview: According to the International Monetary Funds (IMF), the world economy was projected to grow
at 3.2% in 2016, a moderate increase from 3.1% in 2015. The Indian economy, on the other hand, grew at 7.6% for FY16,
placing it at the forefront of emerging markets and developing economies. Government initiatives like Make in India,
Digital India, Start-up India, Stand Up India and 100 Smart Cities have added to the increased optimism for
investments in the country. These initiatives coupled with the governments commitment to fiscal targets and forecasts
of an above normal monsoon are expected to brighten the investment climate. Further, the Rural Sector reforms, interest
rate cuts and anticipated 7th Pay Commission award are expected to boost the household consumption demand.
Inclusive Growth: Dena Bank aims to deliver financial services at an affordable cost to the vast sections of the
disadvantaged and low-income groups as evidenced below:
It opened 35.67 lakh PMJDY (Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana) accounts wherein total deposits mobilized is Rs.570
crore.
Aadhar Enrolment It enrolled 8.64 crore citizens and earned Rs.32.26 crore as non-
interest income. It also secured the first rank for Maximum Aadhar Enrolments during Shareholding: (in %)
the PMJDY camp. Promoters 68.55%
It received enrolments under Social Security Schemes. FIIs/FIs 18.63%
General Public 10.63%
Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana (PMSBY) - 24.46 lakh policies
Others 2.19%
Pradhan Mantri Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana (PMJJBY) 5.6 lakh policies
Total 100%
Atal Pension Yojana 0.32 lakh policies
Future Outlook: The Bank aims to primarily focus on reducing its NPAs. For growth, it will continue to focus on CASA
deposits and advances to Agriculture, Retail and MSME sectors. The promoters hold majority stake in the equity capital,
which indicates their conviction and sincerity. Institutional holding stood at 18.6%, which indicates the confidence of
seasoned investors. At the same time, it can also lead to high volatility in the stock price as institutions buy and sell
larger stakes than retail participants.
Conclusion: According to me, the best sector to invest in this year is banking (as also highlighted in my article on
Andhra Bank published two weeks back). The Banking sector is likely to lead the market in the next bull run. Investors
should concentrate on themes and sectors that are expected to report the fastest growth in the coming years largely
driven by domestic factors. Also, there is a rumour in the market that most operators are restructuring their portfolios
with banking stocks. I recommend to buy Dena Bank for a short-term target of Rs.50, medium-term target of Rs.70-90
and long-term target of Rs.150+.
STOCK PICK
Marathon Nextgen Realty Ltd: Constructing gains
By Laxmikant Bhole
The market extended its gain further during the start of last week. However, geo-political tension created by USA
attacking Syria dragged the Nifty down sharply on Friday, 7 April 2017, to close just below the 9200 mark. While
investors take a cautious approach in the market, there is nothing wrong at home and the long-term view is still bullish.
In fact, this is a golden opportunity for those who missed the earlier boom. Investors who look for undervalued and
fundamentally strong stocks will always benefit in the long run from such falls in the market. One such stock is Marathon
NextGen Reality Ltd (MNRL).
Company Overview: Incorporated in 1978, MNRL began as a textile unit but has now transformed itself into real estate
company with developments in and around Mumbai. So far has properties at core locations in Mumbai such as Byculla,
Borivali, Lower Parel, Mulund, Bhandup, Thane and Navi Mumbai.

The Marathon group is led by Mr. Chetan Shah as Managing Director and Chairman. He is a qualified civil and
construction engineer from USA and holds B.Tech (Civil Engineering) and M.S. (Structural Engineering) degrees with
three decades of experience in planning, operations, quality assurance and execution of large projects.
MNRL is focused on developing residential and commercial
complexes. It has acquired land in Khatau Mill at prime Seminars on Financial Literacy Stock
locations of Byculla (13 acre) and Borivali (27 acre) in
Mumbai. It is developing state-of-the-art residential towers Market
Monte South in the Khatau Mill compound of Byculla jointly Place Date Time Venue
with the Adani Group on a 12.3 acre plot with 4 towers of 60 Dadar/Mahim 08/04/17 5.30 Mahim Sarvajanik
stories and a commercial complex. It has also developed p.m. Vachanalay, Lt. Dilip
Marathon Futurex a commercial complex in Lower Parel, Gupte Marg, Mahim
which has started fetching revenues. It is developing a (Nearest Station
1,11,000 sq.ft. land to create Phase-III of the IT-Park as Matunga Road)
Marathon Futurex, which is a state-of-the-art facility Pune 15/04/17 5 p.m. Badminton Court Hall,
developed with formwork technology from Spain and DP Road, Vishal Nagar,
Germany. Wakad Road, Pimple
There are several such projects that are under development Nilakh Pune 411027
or on the verge of completion that will fetch huge revenues Mumbai 22/04/17 2 p.m. Mahila Udyojak
upon completion. Unlike other real estate companies, MNRL Sanghatana, Times
has been successful in building commercial complexes and Foundation, Times of
leasing them out, which ensures sustained annuity income in India Bldg. Opp. CST
addition to the one-time revenue from residential property Railway Station
sale. The Company has already forayed into a slum Also a seminar is likely to be scheduled in Dadar (Mumbai)
rehabilitation project development. Its Bhandup project is at the end of April 2017 wherein renowned Arthakranti
also under development. pioneer Shri. Anilji Bokil will be the main speaker followed
by Aaj Rokh Udya Digital lecture by Chandrashekhar
The NDA government's Housing for all by 2020 initiative will
Thakur.
benefit the Company in the long run. Recent changes in the FSI
structure by the BMC will boost its revenue further. Its Chandrashekhar Thakur: CDSL BO Protection Fund.
average rate of realization for FY16 was Rs.7,500 per sq.ft. Tel: 9820389051; th
csthakur@cdslindia.com;
BSE Bldg., 16 Floor, Dalal Street, Fort, Mumbai 400001
which is expected to rise this year.
Last year, MNRL forayed into the education space by launching schools, namely, Next School and introduced the
prestigeous Big Picture learning concepts for the first time in India. Its first school is already operational in Mulund. Big
Picture learning is supported by the renowned Bill & Melinda Gates foundation, a USA-based non-profit organization
promoted by Bill Gates. Its K12 schools will be operational this year and offer Primary, Middle year, Diploma and Career
Program courses and accommodate ~700 students. This could be the next growth trajectory for the Company.
Financial Performance: MNRL exhibits excellent balance sheet parameters. Its total market cap is ~Rs.755.86 crore
while net reserves are over Rs.580 crore. Thus, the Company is trading at dirt cheap valuations at the current level.
Moreover, it a debt-free company whereas most real estate companies struggle with high debts. Last year, the
management had stated that it did not intend to raise any debt and they will make all efforts to fund their projects
through internal accruals only. This shows the managements confidence and commitment to keep the company debt-
free which is a big positive.
For FY16, MNRL posted PAT of Rs.75.4 crore with EPS of Rs.26.5. In 9MFY17, it posted PAT of Rs.66.4 crore indicating
higher profits for FY17. Its EPS has been consistent between Rs.20 and Rs.25 for over the last five years, in fact slightly
higher in FY16 and it is expected to improve further going forward. The stock trades at a healthy P/BV ratio of 1.23x
whereas its peers trade at 2-3x. Its P/E multiple of 8.33x is one of the lowest in the industry as most other real estate
companies trade at much higher P/E multiples of 20-30x or even more. MNRL has consistently paid dividends over the
last ten years and also issued a 1:2 bonus in December 2015.
Risks and Concerns:
1. Although the real estate market in India is on the recovery path, revival is slower than anticipated.
2. There is no information in the public domain regarding the total land that the Company owns.
3. MNRL is not an established player in the education space and there is stiff competition in the sector. This may lead to
a longer breakeven for its business in this space.

Conclusion: It is our constant endeavour to find hidden gems like MNRL for the benefit of our readers. Considering the
Company's fundamentals and business growth prospects, the stock looks grossly undervalued at the current market
price as compared to its peers. Investors should keep this stock in the radar and accumulate on every dip for handsome
returns over the next 12-15 months.
SMART PICKS
Smart Picks
Market is steady and upward

By Rohan Nalawade
As forecast in the last issue, the market did make a new high last week with Nifty rising to 9273. The market is slowly
moving upwards and buying can be seen at Nifty 9160-9200 levels. In our view, the market is a buy on dips at these
levels. The short-term trend will only change if these levels are broken. Above 9200, the market is likely to move
towards the 9350-9400 levels. 21435 is a good support level for the Bank Nifty. Above 21630, Bank Nifty looks good for
a target of 22500.
Niftys weekly close at 9198.3 is above last weeks close of 9173 and above the high of last two years, which indicates
higher low and higher high making it good for an uptrend unless it closes below 9190.
The GST Bill shows positive signs of acceptance in both houses of Parliament and could soon become a reality in 2017.
Sectors that will benefit the most from the implementation of GST are Auto, Cement, Logistics, etc.
Among stocks,
Buy Bharat Heavy Electricals above Rs.172-175 for a price target of Rs.185
Buy JSW Steel above Rs.205 for a price target of Rs.214
Buy State Bank of India above Rs.290 for a price target of Rs.300-305
Buy Bank of Baroda above Rs.172 for a price target of Rs.180
Buy Hindalco Industries above Rs.194 for a price target of Rs.205
Buy DLF above Rs.153 for a price target of Rs.163
MARKET REVIEW
Sensex registers modest gains
By Devendra A Singh
The BSE Sensex gained 86.11 points to settle at 29706.61 while the CNX Nifty gained 24.55 points to close at 9198.30 for
the week ending Friday, 7 April 2017.
On the macro-economic data front, activity in Indias manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest pace in five months in
March 2017 as output and new orders accelerated. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) compiled by
Markit surged to 52.5 in March 2017 from 50.7 in February 2017. Output and new orders sub-indices rose to their
highest since October 2016, suggesting the worlds fastest growing major economy. The new orders index rose to a 5-
month high of 53.6 from 51.3 in February 2017.
Inflation picked up pace in February 2017 to 3.65% but it was still below the central banks 4% target. Economic growth
for the October-December 2016 quarter came in at 7%, a bit slower than the 7.4% in the previous quarter.
Further, the growth of eight core sectors fell to a one-year low of 1% in February 2017 mainly due to the decline in
output of crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers and cement. The core sectors which contribute 38% to the
total industrial production expanded 4.4% over April 2016-February 2017 compared to 3.5% growth in the previous
corresponding period.
The RBI on Thursday, 6 April 2017, kept the policy repo under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at
6.25%. The reverse repo rate stands at 6% while the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate are at
6.5%.

On the GST front, the Lok Sabha passed key legislations paving the way for implementation of a nationwide GST from
July 2017, which is expected to spur economic growth by 1-2% points. Most manufacturing and services items will be
taxed at standard rates of 12% and 18% under the four-slab GST structure.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) in its Asian
Development Outlook 2017 stated that the
impact of demonetisation is dissipating as the
What TF+ subscribers say:
replacement banknotes enter circulation. It Think Investment Think TECHNO FUNDA PLUS
further said that stronger consumption and
fiscal reforms are also expected to improve Techno Funda Plus is a superior version of the Techno
business confidence and investment prospects Funda column that has recorded near 90% success since
in India. The economy is estimated to have launch.
grown by 7.1% last fiscal. It also expects Every week, Techno Funda Plus identifies three
inflation to rise this fiscal and has pegged fundamentally sound and technically strong stocks that can
inflation at 5.2% in FY18 and 5.4% in FY19.
yield handsome returns against their peers in the short-to-
In India, the sub-regions largest economy medium-term.
growth is expected to pick up to 7.4% in FY18
and 7.6% in FY19. With regard to China, the Most of our recommendations have fetched excellent
report said, the overall output is expected to returns to our subscribers. Of the 156 stocks recommended
slow to 6.5% in 2017 and 6.2% in 2018, down between 11 January 2016 and 2 January 2017 (52 weeks),
from 6.7% in 2016. we booked profit in 120 stocks, 27 triggered the stop loss
The report further said that South Asia would while 9 are still open. Of these 9, 4 are in big green while 5
remain the fastest growing of all sub-regions are in nominal red.
with growth reaching 7% in 2017 and 7.2% in If you want to earn like this, subscribe to TECHNO
2018.
FUNDA PLUS today.
Key index surged on Monday, 3 April 2017, on
fresh buying of equities. The Sensex advanced Subscription Rate: 1 month: Rs.2500; 3 months: Rs.6000;
289.72 points (+0.98%) to settle at 29910.22. 6 months: Rs.11000; 1 year: Rs.18000.
The Indian stock market remained closed on For more details, contact Money Times on
Tuesday, 4 April 2017, on account of Ram 022-22616970/4805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
Navami.
Key index closed higher on Wednesday, 5 April 2017, on buying of equities. The Sensex gained 64.02 points (+0.41%) to
close at 29974.24.
Key index tanked on Thursday, 6 April 2017, on sell-off. The Sensex plunged 46.90 points (-0.16%) to close at
29927.34.
Key index nosedived on Friday, 7 April 2017, as the market witnessed correction. The Sensex declined 220.73 points (-
0.74%) to close at 29706.61.
For future events, national and global macro-economic figures will surely dictate the global markets movements and
influence investor sentiment in the near future.
The Indian stock market will remain closed on Friday, 14 April 2017, on account of Good Friday.
The government is scheduled to release data based on wholesale price index (WPI) and combined consumer price
indices (CPI) for urban and rural India for March 2017 by mid-April 2017.
On the US front, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March 2017
are scheduled to be released in the coming week.
EXPERT EYE
By Vihari
Gujarat Automotive Gears Ltd: Geared for future

(BSE Code: 505712) (Rs.253.30) (FV Rs.2)
The share of Gujarat Automotive Gears Ltd (GAGL) is recommended on account of its excellent Q3FY17 results with a
50% jump in PAT.

Incorporated in 1973, GAGL manufactures transmission gears to cater to the needs of the automobile industry,
particularly for Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCVs), Ambassadors cars and Jeeps with an installed capacity of 800 TPA. It
also manufactures steering pins and clutch shafts (gear-box items) for tractors, propeller shaft components and wheel
spanners. The Company
is headed by Mr. Rajiv
Agarwal. Its plant is
13th Edition of Roongtas Panchratna
located in Kakali, Released on 1st April 2017
Vadodara (Baroda).
Exports constitute 98% Roongtas Panchratna stocks are in the limelight.
of sales. The 13th edition contains five low-priced stocks in the range of Re.0.65 and Rs.80 from five
In July 2013, the HIM booming sectors - Steel, Sugar, Textile, Shipping and Chemicals.
group promoted by the
Agarwals, through its Have a look at our Top Performers from the first ten editions:
privately held flagship Sr. Date Scrip Name Recomm. High % Gain
company HIM Tekno No Rate (Rs.) Achieved
Forge Ltd (HTL) and (Rs.)
associate firm Globe 1 April 2014 Cheslind Textiles Ltd converted into 4.98 510 400%
Precision Industries Pvt RSWM Ltd (05:100)
Ltd, had acquired 55% Trident Ltd 18.80 90.30 380%
stake in GAGL from the Essar Ports Ltd 50.90 150.40 195%
promoters for Rs.21.88 2 July 2014 Suryaamba Spinning Mills Ltd 31.20 85 172%
crore ($3.6 mn). The Sarda Plywood & Industries Ltd 18.85 165.05 776%
group has also made an Dish TV India Ltd 62.95 121.85 94%
open offer as part of the October 2014 Ashok Leyland Ltd 41.10 112.80 174%
3
deal to acquire another Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd 61.45 116 89%
26% stake in the firm. 4 January 2015 KEC International Ltd 94.30 213.40 126%
Suzlon Energy Ltd 14.70 30.25 106%
GAGL was originally
5 April 2015 ABC India Ltd 88.05 148.30 68%
promoted by the Kothari Shipping Corporation of India Ltd 46.15 100.90 119%
family, who sold 55% Tinplate Company Of India Ltd 54.30 107.70 98%
stake or 1,92,500 shares 6 July 2015 Sathavahana Ispat Ltd 35.40 103.95 194%
(9,62,500 shares of Rs.2 JK Paper Ltd 41.90 101.80 143%
7 October 2015
if FV of Rs.2 is Tanla Solutions Ltd 24.75 66.45 168%
considered) for Rs.1,137 DCW Ltd 20.30 40 97%
each (equivalent to STEL Holdings Ltd 27 80.90 200%
Rs.227.40 for FV of Rs.2) 8 January 2016 Perfectpac Ltd 56.75 134.15 136%
that aggregated to 9 April 2016 Indokem Ltd 3.8 24 532%
Rs.21.88 crore. In the 10 July 2016 Gujarat State Fertilizer Corporation Ltd 78.45 129.60 65%
open offer, the new The list comprises stocks that gained over 65% in 21 stocks out of 50
management managed to
garner additional 2.9% Salient Features -
stake. The Kothari family, Out of the 50 stocks recommended up to the 10th edition, the highest gainers are:
which owned 70.2% Sarda Plywood & Industries at 776%
stake in GAGL prior to Indokem at 532%
sale, retained 15.2% Cheslind Textiles (now RSWM) at 400%
after the stake sale. Trident at 380%
HTL is the flagship The success rate is nearly 90% in rest of stocks with average returns of 50% and low-priced
company of the HIM stocks delivering higher returns.
group led by Mr. Vijay
th
Aggarwal. It supplies The 13 edition will be more exciting as one of the stocks selected from the steel sector
majority of its products quotes at Re.0.50 on Re.1 paid up share and has been witnessing huge volumes daily for the
to OEMs (original last couple of weeks.
equipment Subscription Rate: Rs.2500 per quarter, Rs.4000 for two quarters & Rs.7000 per annum.
manufacturers) such as You can contact us on 022-22616970, 22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com
Ashok Leyland, Swaraj Book your copy now. First come first served
Mazda, Escorts, Bharat

Gears and Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M). Its Forging Unit is located at Baddi in Himachal Pradesh and at Pithampur in
Madhya Pradesh. It is the largest exporter of Tractor and Truck Parts like kingpins and transmission components for the
European and North American markets. Currently, it is an OE supplier only for the tractor division of M&M. Currently, it
manufactures around 2,000 MT of Forgings and over 2,50,000 finished components per month and supplies them to top
OEMs in India. It plans to install 1,600 and 2,500 tonnes mechanical forging processes at this facility. It has a pan India
dealer network and is TS 16949:2009 and ISO 9001:2008 certified. It is a Tier 1 supplier to OEMs, Defence, Aftermarket,
Railways, Oil & Gas sectors and exports.
In May 2016, Canbank Venture Capital Fund bought a minority equity stake in HTL for Rs.30 crore. These funds are
being deployed for modernisation and additional plant and machinery and tools at HTLs existing forging and machining
units at Pithampur. The ~$3 bn forging industry has emerged as a major contributor to the manufacturing sector of the
Indian economy. Approximately 20-25% of the size of the forging industry caters to exports.
Marketed under the brand names of KAG, GAGLs products serve the aftermarket and OEMs in India. It has applied to
Tata Motors for approval as vendor (OE) for LCV gears. With its commitment to quality and the robust performance of
its products, it has won national and international acclaim. Apart from this, its synergistic approach to design and
execution, perfect manufacturing processes and prompt after-sales services, ensures matchless quality products and
components.
With nearly four decades of industry presence and market leadership, GAGL has developed an organized network of
reputed and loyal clientele not only India but also in Germany, Italy, UK, Egypt, Sri Lanka, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand,
Belgium, Dubai, Australia, USA, etc.
For FY16, GAGLs net profit fell 13% to Rs.4.1 crore on 15% lower sales of Rs.25.1 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.23.4 and a
dividend of 35% was paid. During Q3FY17, its net profit soared 51% to Rs.1.4 crore on 25% higher sales of Rs.7.5 crore
fetching an EPS of Rs.8.1. During 9MFY17, its net profit jumped 40% to Rs.4.2 crore on 42% higher sales of Rs.24.9 crore
fetching an EPS of Rs.23.9.
With a small equity capital of Rs.35 lakh and reserves of Rs.26.7 crore, its share book value works out to Rs.155. The
value of its gross block was Rs.10 crore. Debts of Rs.13 crore give it a DER of 0.5:1. Loans and advances given, cash and
current investments of Rs.32.4 crore give the Company a debt-free status. The promoters hold 57.9% of the equity
capital, PCBs hold 4%, DIs hold 0.2% and FIIs hold 0.7%, which leaves 37.2% stake with the investing public including
the 15% stake of the Kothari family.
GAGL has now proposed to merge the Rs.195 crore HTL with itself. As at FY16, HTL had total net worth of Rs.103.5 crore
with equity of Rs.28.95 crore. Under the scheme, GAGL will give 3 shares of Rs.2 each for 13 shares of HTL. The proposed
merger will enable the merged entity to consolidate the business operations and will result in operational synergy and
optimisation of overheads, organisational efficiency and large cash flows since most products are similar.
The Indian auto components industry can be broadly classified into the organised and unorganised sectors. The
organised sector caters to the OEMs and consists of high-value precision instruments while the unorganised sector
comprises low-valued products and caters mostly to the aftermarket category.
Over the last decade, the auto components industry has scaled three times to $ 40 bn in 2015 while exports have grown
faster to $ 11 bn. This was driven by strong growth in the domestic market and increasing globalisation (including
exports) of several Indian suppliers. According to the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India
(ACMA), the Indian auto components industry is expected to register a turnover of $100 bn by 2020 backed by strong
exports ranging between $80-100 bn by 2026, from the current $11.2 bn.
The Indian auto-components industry is set to become the third largest in the world by 2025. Indian auto-component
makers are well-positioned to benefit from the globalisation of the sector as the export potential could rise four times to
$40 bn by 2020.
The auto components industry in India has significant cost advantages primarily due to lower labour cost. Since Tier-1
suppliers control the global components industry, the cost advantage should be leveraged into attracting these global
players to set up their manufacturing bases in India. Further, the good monsoon has spurred the demand for
automobiles and tractors, which will boost the sales of GAGL.
Earlier, crucial parts of passenger vehicles made by the likes of Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Mercedes Benz, Daewoo, Ford,
etc. were imported. The indigenization level per vehicle was pretty low. Today in 2016, the indigenization level for
domestic players has risen to 95% and nearly 80% for the foreign OEMs.
Based on the current going, GAGL is set to post an EPS of Rs.33 in FY17 and Rs.38 in FY18. At the CMP of Rs.253.30, the
stock trades at a forward P/E of just 7.6x on FY17E and 6.6x on FY18E earnings. A reasonable P/E of 10x will take its

share price to Rs.330 in the medium-term and Rs.380 thereafter. Post-merger with HTL, EPS is likely to take a quantum
jump and will be a big trigger for the stock to fetch a killing. The stocks 52-week high/low is Rs.314.70/164.
TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
Kilburn Engineering Ltd REVIEW

(BSE Code: 522101) (CMP: Rs.63.45) (FV: Rs.10) Aro Granite Industries recommended at Rs.68
We had recommended this stock in Techno Funda Plus at Rs.56.15 on 26 December 2016 and again at Rs.75.20 on
on 13 March 2017. 30 January 2017, zoomed to Rs.86.30 last week
Incorporated in 1987, Thane-based Kilburn Engineering Ltd (KEL) fetching excellent returns.
is engaged in the engineering, manufacture and installation of AVT Natural Products recommended at
drying systems for solids, liquids and gases. It is a part of the well- Rs.33.80 on 23 January 2017 and again at
known Williamson Magor group, which has other companies like Rs.37.60 on 27 March 2017, zoomed to
Mcleod Russel, Mcnally Bharat and Eveready Industries. Rs.49.80 last week fetching excellent returns.
KEL operates in two segments - Process Equipment and Tea Drying Lahoti Overseas recommended at Rs.22.40 on
Equipment. Its products include dryers and coolers comprising 9 January 2017, zoomed to Rs.29.60 last week
conveyorized band and tunnel dryers, coal dryers, coconut dryers, recording 32% appreciation.
fluid bed dryers and coolers, flash dryers, paddy dryers and coolers,
paddle dryers and by-products, withering systems, swirl dryers, Tamil Nadu Petroproducts recommended at
vibrating fluid bed dryers, tea dryers, spray dryers, sugar dryers, Rs.30.75 on 13 February 2017, zoomed to
rotary dryers and paddy dryers; adsorption systems, which include Rs.50.90 last week recording 66% appreciation.
gas dryers, organic liquid drying systems and vapor/solvent
recovery systems; and oil field systems such as instrument and utility gas drying systems, gas conditioning systems, inlet
manifolds, test separators and H2S and CO2 removal systems. Its products also comprise heat transfer systems
consisting of direct and indirect fired heaters, finned tube heaters and coolers, incinerators, DeNox systems and heat
recovery systems; fabricated equipments including pressure vessels, heat exchangers, columns, reactors, evaporators
and condensers, silos, bag filters, cyclones and other special equipments. In addition, it offers oil field systems including
instrument and utility gas drying systems, gas conditioning systems, inlet manifolds, test seperators and water injection
manifolds; material handling systems comprising pneumatic conveyors and silos, vibrating feeders and conveyors and
vibrating spiral elevators and industrial axial and centrifugal fans. Its products are used for drying and processing
various materials such as PVC, carbon black, soda ash, sodium cyanide, rubber, heavy chemicals, sugar, paddy, tea, etc.,
which serve the chemical, coconut, cement, fertilizer/petrochemical/refinery, food, rubber, sugar, and tea industries.
With an equity capital of Rs.13.26 crore and reserves of Rs.89.6 crore, its share book value works out to Rs.77.6 and
price:book value ratio looks attractive at just 0.82x. The promoters hold 57.09% of the equity capital, which leaves
42.9% stake with the investing public.
During Q3FY17, KELs turnover declined to Rs.26.02
Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
crore from Rs.37.55 crore in Q3FY16 while PAT
climbed 12% to Rs.1.9 crore from Rs.1.69 crore in Particulars Q3FY17 Q3FY16 9MFY17 9MFY16 FY16
Q3FY16 fetching an EPS of Rs.1.43. During 9MFY17, Sales 26.02 37.55 89.69 93.26 135.08
PAT jumped 39% to Rs.5.56 crore from Rs.4 crore in PBT 2.92 2.24 8.86 5.41 9.3
9MFY16 on lower sales of Rs.89.69 crore fetching an Tax 1.02 0.55 3.3 1.41 1.37
EPS of Rs.4.19. It paid 20% dividend for FY16 and at PAT 1.9 1.69 5.56 4 7.93
the current level, dividend yield works out to over 3%. EPS (in Rs.) 1.43 1.28 4.19 3.02 5.98
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of just 8.87x and looks quite attractive for investment. Investors can buy this stock
with a stop loss of Rs.54. On the upper side, it could zoom to Rs.75-80 levels in the medium-term and further to Rs.100-
125 levels in the long-term.

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