ALERT CITIZENS FORUM OF INDIA GUJARAT 2017 SURVEY

THE BATTLE FOR GUJARAT

The EC has declared the dates for the Gujarat elections. They will be held on December 9 and 14 with
results on December 18, 2017.
Like in 2012, we at Alert Citizens Forum have conducted an extensive pre poll survey of the political
scenario in Gujarat, which will be presented to you in 4 parts.
Part no. 1:

Review of the 2012 election result:

In 2012, BJP got 47.9 percent of the total valid votes polled. The Congress was way behind with a vote
share of 38.9 percent. Of the other parties, Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) got 3.6 percent, Janata Dal
(United), JDU, 0.6 percent and NCP 1 percent.

Share of ST and SC Seats

Of the 182 seats in Assembly, 27 seats are reserved for the scheduled tribes (ST) and 13 for the
scheduled castes (SC). Of the ST seats, BJP has won only 10; of the remaining 17, 16 have gone to INC
and 1 to JDU

Low margin seats

In 2012 elections, 36 seats have been decided by margins of less than 5,000. Of these, BJP has won only
13, while INC has got 21 and GPP and NCP have each got 1 seat. Among these 36, 4 seats have been
decided by margins of less than 1000 and, of these,INC has won 3 and BJP only 1.
BJP had clearly lost disproportionately in the seats that were decided by narrow margins.
Region-wise Results:
Kutch Region (BJP 5, Congress 1)
Of the 6 constituencies in Kutch region, BJP got 5 and Congress 1. The victory margin for Congress is less
than 10,000 while GPP has garnered nearly 20 thousand votes. Of the votes polled in 2012, BJP got 45.4
percent, INC about 40 percent and GPP another 5 percent. In the absence of GPP in the fray, BJP would
have won all 6 seats. Gandhidham in Kutch is a reserved SC seat; the seat won by BJP by a margin more
than 20,000.
North Gujarat (BJP 13, Congress 14)
In this region, comprising of Banaskantha, Mahesana, Patan and Sabarkantha districts, adjoining south
Rajasthan, BJP lost heavily BJP has done particularly badly in Banaskantha and Sabarkantha.. In
Banaskantha, it won only 4 of the 9 seats.
Of the total votes polled in the region in 2012, BJP got 43 percent; the Congress 44 percent. NCP, which
contested from 2 seats in the region, has got a substantial vote share of 1.8 percent. The showing of NCP
in Vav of Banaskantha, was particularly good, where it polled more than 30,000 votes, ensuring the
defeat of Congress.. Vav was won by the BJP with a margin of about 12,000 votes.
GPP, which had put up candidates in all seats, has obtained a vote share of 1.35 percent in the region.
But its showing in the region was significant only in two constituencies, Becharaji of Mahesana and
Kankrej of Banaskantha. GPP polled nearly 14,000 votes in Becharaji; the seat won by BJP, though with a
thin margin of about 6500 votes. In Kankrej, GPP polled about 7500 votes; the seat was lost by BJP by
just 600 votes.
The region had 3 ST seats, all of which have gone to Congress.Of the 3 SC seats in the region, two were
won by Congress and 1 by BJP.
North Gujarat region, where the BJP has fared so poorly, is also among the least urbanised in the state
with an urbanisation ratio of 17.6 percent compared to the state average of 42.6 percent as per thel
figures of Census 2011. Urbanisation ratio of Banaskantha and Sabarkantha is even lower at 13.3 and
14.5 percent, respectively. Sabarkantha also has substantial ST presence of 20.2 percent.
Central Gujarat (BJP 45, Congress 25, Others 3)
Central Gujarat, as it is usually defined, is a vast region comprising Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Anand,
Kheda, Panchmahals, Dahod, Vadodara, Bharuch and Narmada districts; and, a total of 73 seats. In this
region, BJP had done well. Of the total votes polled in the region, BJP got 49.8 percent; Congress about
39 percent, GPP about 2 percent, NCP and JDU about 1 percent each.
This region has an urbanization ratio of 46.2 percent compared to the state average of 42.6. Parts of this
region are among the most urbanised in the state and there BJP has done even better.
Sub region performances:
a) Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar (BJP 19, INC 7)
These two districts form the capital region of Gujarat, have 26 seats between them. Of 26 seats BJP won
19 and INC 7. Of the total votes polled in the sub-region, BJP got 57 percent, while Congress got only 36
percent. Of the 7 seats that Congress won in this region, 4 were decided with narrow margins. The
margin in Kalol was only 343 and in Dehgam, 2,297. Sanand and Dariapur of Ahmedabad, won by
Congress with low margins of 4,148 and 2,621, respectively.
BJP, on the other hand, won Ghatlodia with a margin of more than a lakh and Maninagar by more than
86 thousand. There were scary results too - Bapunagar of Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar North, by
narrow margins of less than 5,000. GPP had put up candidates in many constituencies in this region, but
its presence has not been of much significance anywhere, except perhaps in Kalol, where the 543 votes
that it has polled are more than the margin of defeat for BJP.
This sub-region, is highly urbanised. The ratio of urbanisation for Gandhinagar-Ahmedabad belt is 77.5
percent.
b) Anand-Kheda (BJP 4, Congress 9, NCP 1)
Congress has deep roots in this sub-region of Central Gujarat. BJP won 4, Congress 9 and NCP 1. Of the
total votes polled in the region, BJP got 43.6 percent and Congress 44.3 percent. NCP, which contested 2
seats got 3.2 percent. GPP has got 1.7 percent of the vote.Margins of victory were very narrow for
several seats in this sub-region. This region has no ST or SC seat. Urban ratio of the region is 26.4
percent. This makes it among the less urbanised parts of the state.
In all, The BJP won 17 out of 21 seats in Ahmedabad district, 16 out of 18 seats in Surat district and 10
out of 13 seats in Baroda district. In Bharuch district, the BJP had won 4 and the JDU 1. In Bhavnagar
district, the BJP won eight seats against the Congress's one. The Congress did well in Sabarkantha district
where it bagged six seats against the BJP's one and in Kheda district where it won five seats against the
BJP's two. In Banaskantha, the Congress won five seats while the BJP won four. Both the parties fought
closely in districts like Rajkot, Junagadh and Valsad. The GPP won a seat each in Junagadh and Amreli
districts. The NCP won in Porabandar and Anand. Savli constituency in Anand district went to the
Independent.

How will the Patidar agitation impact BJP

In 2012, Keshubhai Patel rebelled against BJP, and contested elections under Gujarat Parivartan Party.
Though it bagged only 3.6 percent vote share, it led to the defeat of BJP candidates in 23 seats in
Saurashtra and Kutch.
Keshubhai was a Leuva Patel. At that time, the media and opposition were hoping that he would cut into
BJPs votes and help the Congress. It did help to a certain extent, with the BJP losing as many as 25 seats
marginally.
This time, instead of Keshubhai, there is Hardik Patel a Kadva Patel representing the Patidars.
Patidar quota demand: The influential Patidar communitys protests to grant them other backward
community (OBC) status is probably the biggest challenge the BJP government faces in its two-decade
rule. The state government has announced a commission and a corporation for communities outside the
purview of reservation. But Patidar leader Hardik Patel says the governments measures are not new
and has vowed to continue the agitation
The Patidars, with 16 percent of the population, hold the keys to government formation in Gujarat.
While other caste/community blocks have already made up their minds, the Patels are keenly watching
the political development on reservation. They know the caste-population dynamics makes them
kingmakers. . Patidars can affect the result in as many as 60 of the total 182 seats.
The break-up of BJPs vote share, over the years, shows that approximately one-fourth of it can be
attributed to the Patidars. The OBCs, including Kolis, form the largest chunk of voters of BJP, followed by
the Patidars and voters from the upper caste. Out of 48 percent vote share BJP received in 2012, 11
percent came from the Patidars.
The BJPs worry is not just about the community switching over to the Congress which is unlikely, but
even if a section of Patidars (around one-third) dont vote for the incumbent, it will turn into a tight
election.

Congress hopes..
1. Recent alliance of Alpesh Thakor (OSS Ekta Manch - OBC leader) and Jignesh Mevani (Dalit activist
leader) will help swing a lot of votes for the party. However, their power to influence the voters is yet
to be tested at ground level.
2. Hardik Patel Impact: In case Hardik Patel supports Congress then the party is likely to get overall 40
per cent vote share. [This will be an increase of 2 per cent vote share and resulting in additional 5-7
seats at the most, for Congress.]
3. Congress has an edge over BJP among 30 per cent of the total voters (Muslim - 10 per cent, Patel - 14
per cent, Dalit - 6 per cent).
4. People are unhappy with BJP due to the implementation of GST. However, it remains to be seen,
whether this unhappiness will make them vote for the Congress.
BJP hopes..
1. BJP has an edge among 67 per cent of the total voters (OBC - 37 per cent, ST - 15 per cent and General
- 15 per cent)
2. Like Keshubhai was against the BJP last time, this time, Shankersinh Vaghela, a veteran is in the
political arena to harm the Congress, after his exit from Congress. He has lot of clout in North Gujarat,
where Congress expects to do well.
3. The pride and quotient of having a Gujarati PM supersedes all the other factors.
4. People do not have any issues about basic amenities - road, electricity, drinking water, education and
healthcare.
5. The various schemes of the Central Govt. viz., Jan Dhan Yojana, Mission Indradhanush (Immunisation
of children) and Ujala Gujarat Yojana for distribution of LED bulbs have benefited people.
As of now, the Congress only enjoys a lead among Dalits and Muslims over the BJP. Even among these
two groups, the BJP has made significant inroads. As compared to the 2012 election, the BJPs vote
share among Dalits and Muslims has increased by 16 and 7 percentage points, respectively.
Overall, compared to 2012, BJP seems to have widened its gap over the Congress in terms of vote share.
GST: Small and medium-scale businessmen and traders, who form the core of the BJP support base,
have been hit by what they call implementation glitches in the roll out of the Goods and Services Tax.
The government has moved to address some of their concerns but many say the slowing economy has
added to the woes. Textile traders in the state want the government to roll back 5% GST on cloth. In
industrial hub Surat, over a lakh traders protested on the streets in July to oppose the 5% GST on
textiles.
Unemployment: Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi has tried to raise the issue in his recent rallies,
attacking Modi for a lack of jobs. His jobs pitch is aimed at wooing the youth, who otherwise vote for the
BJP.
On the whole, it promises to be an election with a lot of fireworks. The Congress is trying to put up a
brave face and challenge to stop the BJP juggernaut. On the other hand, for BJP, the issue is different
any seats less than its last times number and the opposition will be crying hoarse that it is a reflection of
Narendra Modis popularity.

Findings from the survey

1) People have taken Demonetization in stride.
2) Rumblings about GST are there but not of the extent to convert votes against BJP.
3) The Patidar factor will help Congress marginally but it will be offset by Shankarsinh Waghela's exit.
4) The Alpesh Thakor and Pravin Mewni are hyped up by the media and don't have the capacity to win
seats for the Congress.
5) Unrest or unhappiness about Govt decisions does not mean a shift of vote towards Congress.
6) Pride that a Gujarati is PM exists strongly amongst people.
7) In Urban as well as rural areas people still believe in Narendra Modi and ready to give him time.
8) BJP's disadvantage of having a green horn CM in Vijay Rupani is totally offset by the Congress not
having any leader of consequence in the state.
9) Rahul Gandhi unable to connect with the audience in spite of his new aggressive style of campaigning.
People clearly don't believe him.
10) The TINA factor (There is no alternative), firmly in favour of BJP.
11) Inspite of all this, the BJP vote share will still hover around 48-49 %, with the Congress around 37-39
%.
12) Urban Gujarat still solidly with BJP.
13) Congress will get support primarily from Tribal, Muslims and to an extent from Dalits.
14) BJPs top leadership emphasis on Gujarat should not be treated as their weakness but determination
to ensure that they don't go below their 2012 tally.
BJP has huge stakes in this industrialized state of India, which has remained it's bastion for the past two
decades.
However, this being the first election after Modi became PM and shifted out of Gujarat, the party'is
leaving no stone unturned to preserve his legacy.
After reading the first 2 parts it requires no rocket science to know who is likely to win this election.
However, it is necessary to understand why BJP is likely to win a record 6th time.

Reasons of winning:
a) Home state of PM Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah personally supervising the campaign.
b) People pride in the Gujarat model of development.
c) More number of urban voters, who are solidly with the BJP.
d) Opposition Congress is weak and still has not found any candidate who can provide a strong
leadership.
e) The triumvirate that Rahul Gandhi is relying upon is untested and are by no yardstick, mass leaders.
f) Caste equations in all regions and constituencies are well balanced and good homework has been
done by the BJP in this regard.
g) 24 hrs electricity supply almost in 99% part of Gujarat.
h) More no. of industries compared to any other states so definitely BJP is doing well in terms of Jobs,
growth, labour employment, good roads and overall state development.
i) Post 2002 there has been not a single communal riot in state. In fact, now social harmony prevails.
j) Safe and secure State (in Navratri women can roam freely even at 2 AM in the night.)
k) Sound Agriculture and framers policy leading to a balanced ' Rurban' society. (Rural-Urban).
l) Bullet train and Metro being touted as USP's of BJP's development agenda.
m) Most important - no corruption charges on anyone in the past 2 decades.
n) The voters don't trust Rahul Gandhi and Congress.
The actual result of the survey is being given in Part 4, as this detailed analysis was necessary so that
readers understand the effort behind the survey and the psyche of the Gujarat voter.

Results of the survey

Vote share:
1) BJP vote share expected to be around 48-49 %.
2) Congress vote share expected to be around 37-39 %.
Seats:
1) BJP likely to win between 112 to 124 seats.
2) Congress likely to win between 49 to 58 seats.
Region wise break up:
Saurashtra:
Total seats: 54
BJP. 27-32
Congress. 22-25
North Gujarat:
Total seats:. 32
BJP. 13 - 18
Congress. 14 -18
Central Gujarat:
Total seats:. 61
BJP. 45-52
Congress. 9-15
South Gujarat:
Total seats:. 35
BJP. 26-30
Congress. 5-9
Total 182 seats.