AO ENERO

1976 29.3
1977 32.8
1978 33.8
1979 38.9
1980 34.5
1981 42
1982 30.8
1983 46
1984 26.8
1985 43.9
1986 34.9
1987 29.7
1988 23.7
1989 36.8
1990 23.3
1991 31.9
1992 59.9
1993 40.7
1994 39.7
1995 31.9
1996 27.6
1997 49.8
1998 61.7
1999 48.8
2000 56.7
2001 39.9
2002 91.9
2003 71.5
2004 60.7
2005 50.5
2006 73.2
2007 94
2008 51.9
2009 44.4
2010 38
2011 59
2012 49
2013 45.3
2014 49.9
2015 38.3
2016 27.6
N Registros 41
 AO ENERO Q(m3/s) F(x) f(x) =
1976 29.3 94.00 0.998 0.000 =
1977 32.8 91.90 0.998 0.000
1978 33.8 73.20 0.956 0.006
1979 38.9 71.50 0.946 0.007
1980 34.5 61.70 0.845 0.014
1981 42 60.70 0.830 0.015 Si quiero conocer el caudal para T
1982 30.8 59.90 0.817 0.016
1983 46 59.00 0.802 0.017 sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc
1984 26.8 56.70 0.762 0.019
1985 43.9 51.90 0.664 0.022 --> P exc = 1 / 100 =
1986 34.9 50.50 0.632 0.023 --> Pno exc = 1-P exc =
1987 29.7 49.90 0.618 0.023
1988 23.7 49.80 0.616 0.023 z = f ( Pexc)
1989 36.8 49.00 0.598 0.023
1990 23.3 48.80 0.593 0.023 z=
1991 31.9 46.00 0.526 0.024
1992 59.9 45.30 0.510 0.024 x=
1993 40.7 44.40 0.488 0.024
1994 39.7 43.90 0.476 0.024 x=
1995 31.9 42.00 0.430 0.024
1996 27.6 40.70 0.400 0.023 x=
1997 49.8 39.90 0.381 0.023
1998 61.7 39.70 0.377 0.023
1999 48.8 38.90 0.359 0.023 HISTOG
2000 56.7 38.30 0.345 0.022
0.030
2001 39.9 38.00 0.339 0.022
2002 91.9 36.80 0.312 0.021 0.025
2003 71.5 34.90 0.273 0.020
2004 60.7 34.50 0.265 0.020 0.020
2005 50.5 33.80 0.251 0.019
2006 73.2 32.80 0.233 0.018 0.015
2007 94 31.90 0.216 0.018
0.010
2008 51.9 31.90 0.216 0.018
2009 44.4 30.80 0.197 0.017 0.005
2010 38 29.70 0.180 0.016
2011 59 29.30 0.173 0.015 0.000
2012 49 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00
27.60 0.148 0.014
2013 45.3 27.60 0.148 0.014
2014 49.9 26.80 0.137 0.013
2015 38.3 23.70 0.100 0.011
2016 27.6 23.30 0.096 0.010
N Registros 41
 44.90
16.58

i quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 aos,

abiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

-> P exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01

-> Pno exc = 1-P exc = 0.99

=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

2.3263

m+z s

44.90 + 2,326 * 16.58

83.4617 m3/s

HISTOGRAMA

00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00

 AO ENERO Q(m3/s) y = ln (x) F(x) f(x)
1976 29.3 23.30 3.1485 0.0395 0.2509
1977 32.8 23.70 3.1655 0.0440 0.2736
1978 33.8 26.80 3.2884 0.0893 0.4750
1979 38.9 27.60 3.3178 0.1041 0.5315
1980 34.5 27.60 3.3178 0.1041 0.5315
1981 42 29.30 3.3776 0.1395 0.6530
1982 30.8 29.70 3.3911 0.1485 0.6812
1983 46 30.80 3.4275 0.1747 0.7572
1984 26.8 31.90 3.4626 0.2026 0.8296
1985 43.9 31.90 3.4626 0.2026 0.8296
1986 34.9 32.80 3.4904 0.2264 0.8851
1987 29.7 33.80 3.5205 0.2539 0.9421
1988 23.7 34.50 3.5410 0.2735 0.9787
1989 36.8 34.90 3.5525 0.2849 0.9983
1990 23.3 36.80 3.6055 0.3401 1.0776
1991 31.9 38.00 3.6376 0.3753 1.1154
1992 59.9 38.30 3.6454 0.3841 1.1233
1993 40.7 38.90 3.6610 0.4016 1.1373
1994 39.7 39.70 3.6814 0.4249 1.1524
1995 31.9 39.90 3.6864 0.4307 1.1555
1996 27.6 40.70 3.7062 0.4538 1.1653
1997 49.8 42.00 3.7377 0.4906 1.1729
1998 61.7 43.90 3.7819 0.5424 1.1666
1999 48.8 44.40 3.7932 0.5556 1.1618
2000 56.7 45.30 3.8133 0.5788 1.1502
2001 39.9 46.00 3.8286 0.5963 1.1388
2002 91.9 48.80 3.8877 0.6619 1.0752
2003 71.5 49.00 3.8918 0.6663 1.0697 1.4000
2004 60.7 49.80 3.9080 0.6834 1.0469
2005 50.5 49.90 3.9100 0.6855 1.0439 1.2000
2006 73.2 50.50 3.9220 0.6979 1.0257
2007 94 51.90 3.9493 0.7253 0.9807 1.0000
2008 51.9 56.70 4.0378 0.8048 0.8113
2009 44.4 59.00 4.0775 0.8354 0.7288 0.8000
2010 38 59.90 4.0927 0.8462 0.6971
2011 59 60.70 4.1059 0.8553 0.6694 0.6000
2012 49 61.70 4.1223 0.8659 0.6354
2013 45.3 71.50 4.2697 0.9383 0.3579 0.4000
2014 49.9 73.20 4.2932 0.9463 0.3210
2015 38.3 91.90 4.5207 0.9887 0.0874 0.2000
2016 27.6 94.00 4.5433 0.9905 0.0749
N Registros 41 0.0000
10.00 20.00 30.00
 = 3.746
= 0.340
C.ASIMETRIA 1.2906

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 aos,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

--> P exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01

--> Pno exc = 1-P exc = 0.99

z = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

z= 2.3263

y= m+z s

y= 3.746 + 2,326 * 0.340

y= 4.5368

y= ln (x)

x= e (y)

x= 93 m3/s
1.4000

1.2000

1.0000

0.8000

0.6000

0.4000

0.2000

0.0000
10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00
 AO ENERO Q(m3/s) y = ln (x-a) F(x) f(x)
1976 29.3 23.3 2.2083 0.01897 0.08862
1977 32.8 23.7 2.2513 0.02312 0.10479
1978 33.8 26.8 2.5337 0.07318 0.26596
1979 38.9 27.6 2.5953 0.09099 0.31343
1980 34.5 27.6 2.5953 0.09099 0.31343
1981 42 29.3 2.7147 0.13436 0.41430
1982 30.8 29.7 2.7409 0.14549 0.43734
1983 46 30.8 2.8094 0.17756 0.49805
1984 26.8 31.9 2.8736 0.21131 0.55376
1985 43.9 31.9 2.8736 0.21131 0.55376
1986 34.9 32.8 2.9232 0.23980 0.59488
1987 29.7 33.8 2.9755 0.27203 0.63537
1988 23.7 34.5 3.0106 0.29477 0.66031
1989 36.8 34.9 3.0302 0.30778 0.67328
1990 23.3 36.8 3.1180 0.36918 0.72231
1991 31.9 38 3.1697 0.40711 0.74295
1992 59.9 38.3 3.1822 0.41644 0.74694
1993 40.7 38.9 3.2068 0.43489 0.75356
1994 39.7 39.7 3.2387 0.45902 0.75972
1995 31.9 39.9 3.2465 0.46496 0.76080
1996 27.6 40.7 3.2772 0.48833 0.76342
1997 49.8 42 3.3250 0.52489 0.76226
1998 61.7 43.9 3.3912 0.57495 0.75023
1999 48.8 44.4 3.4079 0.58743 0.74533
2000 56.7 45.3 3.4372 0.60917 0.73497
2001 39.9 46 3.4595 0.62543 0.72568
2002 91.9 48.8 3.5439 0.68486 0.68021
2003 71.5 49 3.5496 0.68877 0.67657
2004 60.7 49.8 3.5724 0.70398 0.66160
2005 50.5 49.9 3.5752 0.70583 0.65969
2006 73.2 50.5 3.5918 0.71673 0.64806
2007 94 51.9 3.6297 0.74073 0.62008
2008 51.9 56.7 3.7495 0.80922 0.52082
2009 44.4 59 3.8022 0.83545 0.47439
2010 38 59.9 3.8221 0.84471 0.45675
0.90000
2011 59 60.7 3.8395 0.85250 0.44138
2012 49 61.7 3.8607 0.86169 0.42259 0.80000
2013 45.3 71.5 4.0483 0.92606 0.26807 0.70000
2014 49.9 73.2 4.0775 0.93358 0.24683
2015 38.3 91.9 4.3529 0.97883 0.09728 0.60000
2016 27.6 94 4.3795 0.98129 0.08759 0.50000
N Registros 41
0.40000

0.30000

0.20000
0.60000

0.50000

0.40000

0.30000

0.20000

0.10000

0.00000
10 20 30
 = 3.2924
= 0.5223
a 14.20 SOLVER

C.ASIMETRIA= 3.21E-07

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 aos,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc

--> P exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01

--> Pno exc = 1-P exc = 0.99

z = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

z= 2.3263

y= m+z

y= 3.2924 + 2,326 * 0.5223

y= 4.5076

y= ln (x - a)

x-a= e (y)

x-a= 90.7041744

x= 90.704 + 14.20

x= 105 m3/s

0.90000

0.80000

0.70000

0.60000

0.50000

0.40000

0.30000

0.20000
0.60000

0.50000

0.40000

0.30000

0.20000

0.10000

0.00000
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
 Ao Enero x (m3/s) log (x) F(x) f(x)
1976 29.3 23.30 1.367 0.57772 0.03951
1977 32.8 23.70 1.375 0.63002 0.04397
1978 33.8 26.80 1.428 1.09361 0.08934
1979 38.9 27.60 1.441 1.22394 0.10414
1980 34.5 27.60 1.441 1.22394 0.10414
1981 42 29.30 1.467 1.50351 0.13950
1982 30.8 29.70 1.473 1.56859 0.14855
1983 46 30.80 1.489 1.74363 0.17471
1984 26.8 31.90 1.504 1.91020 0.20255
1985 43.9 31.90 1.504 1.91020 0.20255
1986 34.9 32.80 1.516 2.03801 0.22641
1987 29.7 33.80 1.529 2.16924 0.25386
1988 23.7 34.50 1.538 2.25351 0.27355
1989 36.8 34.90 1.543 2.29866 0.28495
1990 23.3 36.80 1.566 2.48123 0.34005
1991 31.9 38.00 1.580 2.56821 0.37526
1992 59.9 38.30 1.583 2.58648 0.38406
1993 40.7 38.90 1.590 2.61883 0.40163
1994 39.7 39.70 1.599 2.65342 0.42495
1995 31.9 39.90 1.601 2.66056 0.43075
1996 27.6 40.70 1.610 2.68323 0.45379
1997 49.8 42.00 1.623 2.70062 0.49057
1998 61.7 43.90 1.642 2.68610 0.54240
1999 48.8 44.40 1.647 2.67511 0.55558
2000 56.7 45.30 1.656 2.64852 0.57879
2001 39.9 46.00 1.663 2.62221 0.59634
2002 91.9 48.80 1.688 2.47574 0.66190
2003 71.5 49.00 1.690 2.46316 0.66629
2004 60.7 49.80 1.697 2.41053 0.68343
2005 50.5 49.90 1.698 2.40371 0.68553
2006 73.2 50.50 1.703 2.36177 0.69789
2007 94 51.90 1.715 2.25804 0.72534
2008 51.9 56.70 1.754 1.86807 0.80480
2009 44.4 59.00 1.771 1.67806 0.83543
2010 38 59.90 1.777 1.60513 0.84622
2011 59 60.70 1.783 1.54131 0.85528
2012 49 61.70 1.790 1.46312 0.86594
2013 45.3 71.50 1.854 0.82410 0.93833
2014 49.9 73.20 1.865 0.73909 0.94630
2015 38.3 91.90 1.963 0.20123 0.98867
2016 27.6 94.00 1.973 0.17257 0.99050
N Registros 41 41
 = 1.627
= 6.150
C.ASIMETRIA= 0.4218

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 aos,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc

--> P exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01

--> Pno exc = 1-P exc = 0.99

k = f ( Pexc)

k= 2.4720 tabla 4.12

y= m +k

y= 1.627 + 0.148 * 2.4720

y= 1.9918

y= log (x )

x = 10^(y)

x= 98.13 m3/s

1.20000

1.00000

0.80000

0.60000

0.40000

0.20000

0.00000
10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00
0.20000

0.00000
10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00
 Ao Enero Q(m3/s) y = (x - u)/a Tr
1976 29.3 23.3 -0.9455 1.0825
1977 32.8 23.7 -0.9179 1.0890
1978 33.8 26.8 -0.7041 1.1526
1979 38.9 27.6 -0.6490 1.1731
1980 34.5 27.6 -0.6490 1.1731
1981 42 29.3 -0.5317 1.2230
1982 30.8 29.7 -0.5041 1.2361
1983 46 30.8 -0.4283 1.2748
1984 26.8 31.9 -0.3524 1.3177
1985 43.9 31.9 -0.3524 1.3177
1986 34.9 32.8 -0.2904 1.3562
1987 29.7 33.8 -0.2214 1.4028
1988 23.7 34.5 -0.1731 1.4378
1989 36.8 34.9 -0.1456 1.4588
1990 23.3 36.8 -0.0145 1.5687 Si quiero conocer el caudal para T
1991 31.9 38 0.0682 1.6473 sabiendo que:
1992 59.9 38.3 0.0889 1.6682
1993 40.7 38.9 0.1303 1.7114
1994 39.7 39.7 0.1854 1.7722
1995 31.9 39.9 0.1992 1.7880
1996 27.6 40.7 0.2544 1.8537
1997 49.8 42 0.3441 1.9692
1998 61.7 43.9 0.4751 2.1596
1999 48.8 44.4 0.5096 2.2143
2000 56.7 45.3 0.5716 2.3179
2001 39.9 46 0.6199 2.4033
2002 91.9 48.8 0.8130 2.7914
2003 71.5 49 0.8268 2.8223
2004 60.7 49.8 0.8819 2.9500
2005 50.5 49.9 0.8888 2.9664
2006 73.2 50.5 0.9302 3.0678
2007 94 51.9 1.0267 3.3218
2008 51.9 56.7 1.3578 4.4089
2009 44.4 59 1.5164 5.0739
2010 38 59.9 1.5784 5.3645
2011 59 60.7 1.6336 5.6385
2012 49 61.7 1.7025 6.0031
2013 45.3 71.5 2.3783 11.2948
2014 49.9 73.2 2.4956 12.6356
2015 38.3 91.9 3.7851 44.5426
2016 27.6 94 3.9299 51.4050
N Registros 41
 = 44.90 promedio
= 16.58

n= 41 nmero de registros
yn medio = 0.5442 tabla (parm Gumb)
Sn = 1.1430 tabla (parm Gumb)

parmetros, segn n
a = Sx / Sn = 14.50 constante alfa
u = x-Yn*a= 37.01 constante beta

xu
y
a
i quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 aos,
abiendo que:

1 - e(-e(-y)) 0.01

e(-e(-y))= 0.99

-e(-y)= -0.0100503

e(-y)= 0.01005034

-y = -4.6001492

y= 4.60014923
1
y= x-u
a

x= u + a.y

x= 103.7 m3/s