Baku-Yerevan arms race surfaces in Caucasus

Hürriyet Daily News

Barçin Yinanç
Published 19.8.2010

Caucasus-watchers are alarmed by the potential for renewed hostilities

Pr

between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. Frustrated at

the lack of progress through diplomatic means, Baku is rapidly boosting
ov

its arsenal as Yerevan ramps up military cooperation with Russia, raising

concerns that armed skirmishes could resume and even spiral into war.
id
ed

Increased frustration with the lack of progress in diplomatic efforts to solve the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue is fueling ramped-up military initiatives in
by

Azerbaijan and Armenia, raising concerns about a revival of armed conflict in

the Caucasus.
N

“The conviction that the [Nagorno-Karabakh] problem cannot be solved

C

through peaceful means is becoming the predominant view in Azerbaijan,”

W

Sinan Oğan, director of the Turkish Center for International Relations and
Strategic Analysis, or TÜRKSAM, told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic
[N

Review.
or

According to recent statements from Baku, Azerbaijan‟s military spending has

th

increased more than 13-fold over the past seven years, to .15 billion. Armenia
is attempting to keep pace with its rival over Nagorno-Karabakh, an
C

Azerbaijani territory under Armenian occupation, by developing military

au

cooperation with Russia.

The “arms race” has the international community worried about the prospect of
ca

another war in the region, said Richard Giragosian, the director of the
su

Armenian Center for National and International Studies, or ACNIS. The

domestic political context has Baku talking tough, he told the Daily News,
s

quoting Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev‟s recent statement that “if

W

negotiations are scuttled, a new situation will arise and the issue of solving the
problem by military means will be included on the agenda.”
ar

Efforts by the so-called Minsk group, established by the forerunner of the

s ]

Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or OSCE, to find a

diplomatic means of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have been
unsuccessful and have even delayed a solution, Oğan said. “No one is putting
pressure on Armenia to solve the problem. So Baku is telling the world: „If you
 can‟t solve it, we will.‟”

The possibility that the frozen conflict in the region could break out into armed
hostilities was greeted with skepticism, however, by Igor Torbakov from the
Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
Pr

“Azerbaijan is beefing up its military muscle, but Aliyev cannot fail to

ov

understand that any war in the Caucasus would ruin Baku‟s energy
aspirations,” Torbakov said. “Baku does pump tons of money into its military,
id

but this appears to be a way to ramp up psychological pressure on Yerevan and

ed

the international community at large and send a signal that the current status
quo is unsustainable.”
by

A flashpoint of the Caucasus, the region known as Nagorno-Karabakh is a

constituent part of Azerbaijan that has been occupied by Armenia since the end
N

of 1994. While internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory, the enclave

C

has declared itself an independent republic and is administered as a de facto

W

part of Armenia.
[N

The Nagorno-Karabakh War from 1988 to 1994, and the subsequent

occupation by Armenia, led to the deaths of more than 30,000 and created
or

nearly 1 million refugees, who largely remain in temporary settlement camps

and facilities in Azerbaijan.
th

Years of negotiations involving Russia, the United States and Europe, as well
C

as Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders themselves, have failed to resolve the

au

enclave‟s status or enable the return of refugees. Turkey closed its border with
Armenia in 1993 in support of its close ally Azerbaijan in the conflict.
ca

Messages from Moscow

su
s

Azerbaijani frustration with the lack of progress on the issue, combined with
Baku‟s unhappiness and sense of betrayal over Ankara and Yerevan‟s moves
W

toward a tentative reconciliation, make the situation dangerous, TÜRKSAM‟s

ar

Oğan said.
s

He said Russian President Dmitry Medvedev embarking Thursday on a visit to

]

Armenia is a message to Azerbaijan “not to resort to military measures.” Under

a far-reaching deal to be signed during the visit, Moscow will extend its lease
on a military base in Armenia by 24 years and upgrade the mission of the
 estimated 3,000 Russian troops stationed there.

“The rising tension along the „line of contact‟ separating the Karabakh and
Azerbaijani sides has sparked new concerns over the fragility of the cease-fire
agreement that first „froze‟ the Karabakh conflict in May 1994 and has led to
Pr

fresh worries about the possibility of further clashes or skirmishes,” said

Giragosyan, the ACNIS director.
ov

“The danger is not one of all-out war, however, but rather of a danger of „war
id

by accident,‟” he said, adding that smaller-scale clashes and skirmishes could

ed

spiral dangerously out of control.

“Although both sides might want to avoid all-out war, the potential for war,
by

unfortunately, does exist,” Torbakov said. “As each side is prone to

brinkmanship and we‟re dealing with a bunch of pretty hot-headed leaders, a
N

series of provocations combined with miscalculations might indeed send the

C

shaky equilibrium spinning out of control – as happened in Georgia in 2008.”

W

Any renewal of hostilities would be short-lived and take place in the seven
[N

Azerbaijani regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh that are also under

Armenian occupation, Oğan said. “The war will not spread to Karabakh, but
or

Azerbaijan might strike to take back some of the surrounding territories.”

th

Though Giragosian cautioned that such skirmishes could quickly expand to

bring in other powers, such as Russia or even Turkey, Oğan expressed doubts
C

that Russia would actually interfere in a small, short-lived armed conflict.

au

“Russia does not have the right to interfere in the regions surrounding
ca

Karabakh,” he said. “It might even use a small-scale conflict to exert pressure
on Armenia to solve the issue, since the Russian administration does not want
su

the status quo to continue.”

s
W
ar
]s