Tldr; NASA is a disgrace and Asteroid Projectiles

Should Probably Be Handled By the Air Force

Dominique M. Awis
November 21, 2017

1 Near-Earth Objects
Near-Earth objects (NEOs), also known as Earth-crossing asteroids (ECAs),
are projectile asteroids and comets that pass within 1.3 AU of the Earth. As
of November 2017, NEOs will make 380,000 observed passes within 0.5 AU
between 1900 and 2200. [7] This averages to 3.5 NEO passes per day.

2 Extinction-class NEOs
In 1994, Congress directed NASA to track 90 % of civilization-destroyer NEOs
greater than 1 km in distance by 2008, as impacts of these objects are capable
of human extinction; this was known as the Spaceguard Program. [1] NASA
JPL established the Near-Earth Object Program Office in 1998, several years
after the Congressional directive. [1]
In 2003, NASA estimated there were about a population of 1,100 NEOs
greater than 1 km, however NASA felt tracking extinction-class NEOs was a
low priority (while advocating for the Asteroid-Redirect Mission) given they
felt the impact risk was negligible, despite not even having tracked all of the
objects to conclude such a probability. [1][2]
By the 2008 deadline, NASA had located 80% of extinction-class NEOs. [2]
In 2013, Major General Bolden of NASA claimed NASA has found 95% of these
objects [3] and in their 2017 report, NASA claimed to have found 93-94%. [4]
How many of these extinction-class objects are still out there?

3 City-Destroyer NEOs
In 2005, Congress directed NASA to locate 90 % of 140m and above NEOs, also
known as city killer or city destroyer NEOs, named to reflect an impact that
could level an entire city. [2] Asteroids smaller than 140m likely will not impact
Earths surface, however will cause air blasts such as the 1908 Tunguska event
in which a 60m NEO leveled 2,000 square kilometers (80 million trees) with the

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energy of 10 million tons of TNT, about 1,000 more energy than the Hiroshima
atomic bomb. [2][6] If the event were to have happened over a city, it could have
caused hundreds of thousands of casualties. [2] Given NASA estimates property
damage from an NEO to be about 1.77 million dollars per casualty, [4] if the
Tunguska event happened over a city, it would have caused at least 177 billion
dollars in property damage alone.
In 2007, NASA failed to respond to Congress NEO discovery request citing
budget constraints, despite Congressional legislation specifically directing NASA
to allocate funds to the search. [2] Dr. Pace of NASA assured Congress 83%
of city-destroyer NEOs could be located by 2020 given NASAs NEO Survey
Program was alloted time from ground-based observatories. [2] From 2009-
2013, Congress increased funding for the search to 20 million annually. [3] By
2013, the White Houses Dr. Holdren and Major General Bolden estimated
NASA had only found 10% of these objects, and neither had a total population
size estimate. [3] As of 2017, NASA has only found 32% of these objects with an
estimated total population size of 25,000. [4] In 2013, NASA estimated 90% of
city-destroyer NEOs would be found by 2030. [3] However, NASAs 2017 report
estimates it would take them 9-25 years starting after 2023 to locate 90% of
city-destroyer NEOs, meaning not until the year 2032, maybe even 2048. This
is coming from an agency that told Congress it had the capability to launch and
land a robot on an asteroid and redirect it to a cislunar orbit by 2025. [3]

4 Impact Warning
A 20m NEO entered the atmosphere over Chelyabinsk in 2013 injuring 1,491
people and causing $33 million in property damages to 7,200 buildings [5] Nei-
ther NASA or the Air Force had any prior knowledge of the object before impact.
[3]
On February 15, 2013, NASA failed to detect a 50m Tunguska-sized NEO
that came into mid-Earth orbit (25,000 km), missing Earth impact by 15 min-
utes. [13] In July 2017, a Tunguska-sized NEO was not detected until 3 days
after a would-be impact.
NASA estimates that it can only given an impact warning of 60-90% of city-
destroyer NEOs. [4] Dr. Holdren has admitted that many NEOs are detected by
NASA only days and weeks in advance of flybys and cited the reasoning for poor
detection of NEOs is because a large number come out of the Sun, meaning
the Suns light shields the NEO from detection. [3] Dr. Holdren suggested
a heliocentric satellite could detect hidden NEOs, [3] however NASA failed to
suggest or model such Sun-orbital telescopes in its 2017 report. [4]

5 Impact Likelyhood?
NASA continuously assures the public and Congress that the chances of an NEO
impact are remote, despite still only tracking a small portion of NEO orbits.

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 Dr. Holdren claims a city-destroyer NEO impact happens once every 20,000
years, [3] and NASAs 2017 report concluded that, Thus, a single average
NEO would impact the Earth once in 600 million years, (p.25). [4] Given the
same report estimates there to be a total population size of no more than 30,000
NEOs, this should average to one NEO impact per 20,000 years.
Given the Tunguska and Chelyabinsk event average such that Earth has one
NEO impact every 100 years, using NASAs 2017 impact frequency per object
calculation, this would yield a population estimate of 6 million NEOs capable
of damages.
It is pointless to attempt to estimate the 140m and above Earth NEO impact
record by counting Earths current craters, given craters of city-destroyer class
NEOs would be easily masked with erosion. Neukum et al. (1994) analyzed the
lunar cratering record and found that an asteroid capable of leaving an impact
crater of 1 km anywhere on Earth to be an every 1,600 year occurrence, and an
crater on land a once every 6,000 year occurrence. To estimate size of a 1 km
crater, a 320m asteroid would have left a 2 km crater. [9]
Forgetting NASAs unfounded estimates, a city-destroyer class NEO impact
once every 1,600 years seems reassuring, however with fire-ball asteroids that
explode in bursts of energy and never touch the ground, like Tunguska and
Chelyabinsk, that was 2 impacts over land just in the past 110 years. To put
Tunguskas air blast into perspective, that is 155% larger than New York City,
and would have leveled 1.5 trillion dollars worth of property.

6 Impact Aversion
When asked by Congress, Major General Bolden could not come up with an
estimate of how many years advanced notice would be needed to avert an
extinction-class NEO impact, but with unlimited funds...can do it in four or
five years, [3]. General Shelton of the Air Force admits the only way to deflect
an extinction-class NEO on short notice is with a nuclear weapon. [3] According
to NASA Planetary Defense Office FAQ, the average NEO velocity is 12 miles
per second, meaning the average NEO could travel from 1.7 million km (0.01
AU) to Earths surface in 24 hours, or from space to the Earths surface in about
5 seconds; or if one came out of the Sun and was detected 93 million miles
away, it would take an estimated 56 days to impact Earths surface.
When asked what the worlds population should do if an NEO is expected
to impact the Earth in 3 weeks time, Major General Bolden responded, pray.
[3]

7 Sources
1] Threat of Near-Earth Asteroids, Congressional hearing. 2002
2] Near-Earth Objects, Congressional hearing. 2007
3] Threats from Asteroids and Meteors, Congressional hearing. 2013

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4] Update to Determine the Feasibility of Enhancing the Search and Charac-
terization of NEOs, NASA, 2017.
5] Tunguska Event, Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_
event
6] Chelyabinsk Meteor, Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_
meteor
7] NASA/JPL SBDB Close Approach Data API, NASA/JPL https://ssd-api.
jpl.nasa.gov/cad.api?date-min=1900-01-01&date-max=2200-01-01&dist-max=
0.5&body=Earth
8] Neukum, G., and B. A. Ivanov. Crater size distributions and impact prob-
abilities on Earth from lunar, terrestrial-planet, and asteroid cratering data.
Hazards due to Comets and Asteroids 359. 1994 9] If asteroid 99942 Apophis
ever strikes Earth, how big would the crater be? http://www.skyandtelescope.
com/astronomy-resources/astronomy-questions-answers/if-asteroid-99942-apophis-ever-strikes-