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© 2010 Rochdale Securities LLC. All rights reserved. PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION LOCATED AT END OF THIS REPORT.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
The Problem with Bank Regulators
Counterpoint
Presumably Ms. Bair is referring to trust preferred securities when she mentions weeding out hybrid securities. The
question arises again, that if she did not believe in these securities why did the FDIC allow banks to issue so many of them?
Moreover, why were smaller banks allowed to use this instrument as a core source of building capital? Further, if these
instruments are to be eliminated, as is now the law, what is going to replace them?
The failure to come up with a type of capital that banks can sell to replace trust preferreds will force many small banks out
of business. This article does not raise the “too big to fail” issue, but the elimination of trust preferreds will result in the
elimination of many of those banks that the government wants to rely upon – i.e., the community banks.
Ms. Bair fails to realize that deleveraging is not the main cause of lending failing in a crisis. Bad loans are. When bad loans
are written off they reduce capital and increase leverage. The job of the FDIC is to try to prevent the banking system from
making bad loans. They did not do this. Moreover, at no point in her discussion does Ms. Bair indicate that she
understands the impact that bad loans have on the banking system or the responsibility to, as ex Fed Chairman William
McChesney Martin said “Take the punch bowl away just when the party gets going. “ Ms. Bair and the FDIC did not do that
and now want to write a number of rules that will cripple the system.
The desire to reduce the so-called riskier trading activities and derivatives begs the question as to what these are, that are
harming the system. No study has been produced that I am aware of that shows why the derivatives market is so huge.
Why is this market so big if it serves no purpose? No one has explained this. It may be discovered that the problems in that
market are related to bad lending practices not the structure of the markets themselves. Yet, the desire is to harm the
structure of the markets without explaining what these markets do.
Point
Ms. Bair points out that a trade industry report suggests that the new bank capital rules will raise the cost of funds to the banking
system by 132 basis points, causing a loss of 3.1% in gross domestic product, and 9.7 million jobs between 2011 and 2015. She
questions the validity of that study pointing to similar studies from Harvard, the University of Chicago, and the Bank for International
Settlements that suggest minimal impacts on the system from a rise in capital ratios. The difference in opinion, Ms. Bair writes, is
due to:
First, a misunderstanding as to the true cost of tax deductible debt (it is higher than the trade industry says it is), and
Second, the social costs of a bust which are higher than what is being considered by the trade association.
Ms. Bair then goes on to describe how capital was misallocated to the property markets rather than industrial markets prior to the
bust.
Counterpoint
I cannot comment on studies I have not seen. The point here is that the issue is not the cost of funds. The issue is the
availability of funds. Banks are now selling at below book value indicating that equity is not available at reasonable cost to
the industry.
Second, forcing banks to raise capital in this environment raises the cost of funds meaningfully and this was not discussed.
Further, it was not indicated that if banks are unable or unwilling to raise capital in down markets that they have a second
option to meet their capital requirements. They do this by shrinking their balance sheets. This causes money supply to
decline and this weakens the economy. Ms. Bair has not even thought about this.
It is shocking that Ms. Bair would argue that too many funds were allocated to the property markets. It is almost a Kafka
like statement as if she was an outsider or a bug on the wall looking in as opposed to someone in the middle of the process.
The FDIC/Ms. Bair, should absolutely have stopped this misallocation of funds and did not do so. To blame someone else
for a lapse that was also made by the FDIC is not justified.
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© 2010 Rochdale Securities LLC. All rights reserved. PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION LOCATED AT END OF THIS REPORT.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
The Problem with Bank Regulators
Point
Ms. Bair ends her commentary with remarks concerning how beneficial it will be to force more capital into the banking system. She
writes again about “aligning incentives and internalizing the costs of leverage and risk taking.” She attacks bankers for having self-
interest and she believes that lower returns on equity and lower incomes are an acceptable result of adding capital.
Counterpoint
Ms. Bair does not understand that there is a relationship between return on capital and raising capital. She apparently
believes that investors will be attracted to put new money into companies with deteriorating returns. This is in concert
with her belief that raising money at below book value makes sense.
Additionally, despite the fact that bank CEOs make much less than their peers in the industrial world or people in the sports
or entertainment sector, she believes bankers should make even less. Again, there is a failure to understand that people in
the commercial world are driven by a profit motive and that the best and the brightest will not be attracted to the industry
that pays least.
Moreover, Ms. Bair does not believe that companies or individuals should be motivated by self-interest.
At the core, Ms. Bair is demanding more capital in the industry without stating any concept as to what is too little capital
and what is too much capital. The American banking industry now has more capital as a percent of assets than at any time
since 1935. The question as to why more is needed is not answered. The point that too much capital reduces bank lending
and money supply is ignored. The fact that a declining money supply is associated with a declining economy is not
considered.
Core Problem
The core problem with Ms. Bair’s article is that it assumes that capital is available in unlimited supply and that investors are not
influenced by the return on equity in making investments. There is no understanding as to the impact of heightened capital ratios
on bank lending, money supply, and the economy. The fact that banks are made healthiest by a growing economy and not by
growing capital ratios is not understood.
There is a total failure to adopt responsibility for the failings of the regulators and the part they played in creating the financial crisis.
At a broader level, there is no understanding of the global factors that influence the industry. Articles like this one only deepen the
belief of investors that the government is simply out-of-touch with the real factors that influence the economy. It is tragic.
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© 2010 Rochdale Securities LLC. All rights reserved. PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION LOCATED AT END OF THIS REPORT.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
The Problem with Bank Regulators
Management Trading
Richard X. Bove
Vice President Equity Research Barry D. Kaplan
Financial Sector Merger Arbitrage and Special Situations
rbove@rochdalesecurities.com bdk@rochdalesecurities.com
813.909.1111 203.274.9121
Institutional Sales
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© 2010 Rochdale Securities LLC. All rights reserved. PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION LOCATED AT END OF THIS REPORT.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
The Problem with Bank Regulators
RR RATINGS DISTRIBUTION
BUY 23
HOLD 48
SELL 29
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I do not hold any securities of the company covered by this report.
I certify that with respect to each security or issuer that I covered in this report; (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect
my personal views about those securities or issuers; and (2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this research report.
-- Richard X. Bove
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© 2010 Rochdale Securities LLC. All rights reserved. PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION LOCATED AT END OF THIS REPORT.