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Weighted distributions

G.P. Patil
Volume 4, pp 23692377

in

Encyclopedia of Environmetrics
(ISBN 0471 899976)

Edited by

Abdel H. El-Shaarawi and Walter W. Piegorsch

John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, 2002


recorded x is not an observation on X, but on the rv
Weighted distributions Xw , say, having a pdf
wx, fx; 
Traditional environmetric theory and practice have fw x; ,  D 2
been occupied largely with randomization and repli-
cation. But in environmental and ecological work, where is the normalizing factor obtained to make
observations also fall in the nonexperimental, non- the total probability equal to unity by choosing D
replicated, and nonrandom categories. The problems E[wX, ]. The rv Xw is called the weighted version
of model specification and data interpretation then of X, and its distribution in relation to that of X is
acquire special importance and great concern. The called the weighted distribution with weight function
theory of weighted distributions provides a unifying w. Note that the weight function wx,  need not
approach for these problems. Weighted distributions lie between zero and one, and actually may exceed
take into account the method of ascertainment, by unity, as, for example, when wx,  D x, in which
adjusting the probabilities of actual occurrence of case X D Xw is called the size-biased version of
events to arrive at a specification of the probabili- X. The distribution of X is called the size-biased
ties of those events as observed and recorded. Fail- distribution with pdf
ure to make such adjustments can lead to incorrect
conclusions. xfx; 
f x;  D 3
The concept of weighted distributions [26] can be
traced to the study of the effect of methods of ascer-
where D E[X]. The pdf f is called the length-
tainment upon estimation of frequencies by Fisher [9].
biased or size-biased version of f, and the corre-
In extending the basic ideas of Fisher, Rao [33, 34]
sponding observational mechanism is called length-or
saw the need for a unifying concept and identified
size-biased sampling. Weighted distributions have
various sampling situations that can be modeled by
seen much use as a tool in the selection of appropri-
what he called weighted distributions. Within the con-
ate models for observed data drawn without a proper
text of cell kinetics and the early detection of disease,
frame. In many situations the model given above is
Zelen [41] introduced weighted distributions to repre-
appropriate, and the statistical problems that arise
sent what he broadly perceived as length-biased sam-
are the determination of a suitable weight function,
pling (introduced earlier in [4]). In a series of papers
wx, , and drawing inferences on . Appropriate
with his co-workers, Patil has pursued weighted dis-
statistical modeling helps accomplish unbiased infer-
tributions for purposes of encountered data analysis,
ence in spite of the biased data and, at times, even
equilibrium population analysis subject to harvesting
provides a more informative and economic setup;
and predation, meta-analysis incorporating publica-
see [24].
tion bias and heterogeneity, modeling clustering and
The following examples may help illustrate a few
extraneous variation, etc. (see, for example, [5], [12],
situations generating weighted distributions and their
[17][19], [21], [22], [24], [27] and [37]). For more
applications.
references, see [20].
To introduce the concept of a weighted distribu- Example 1 Analysis of family data, wx,  D
tion, suppose X is a non-negative random variable wx D x. Various demographic studies involve fam-
(rv) with its natural probability density function (pdf) ily size and sex ratio as important factors that can
fx; , where the natural parameter is  2  ( is have some bearing on the main study. This example
the parameter space). Suppose a realization x of X shows how a weighted distribution arises as a result
under fx;  enters the investigators record with of the size-biased sampling.
probability proportional to wx, , so that Consider the data in Table 1 relating to broth-
PrrecordingjX D y wy,  ers and sisters in families of 104 boys admitted
D 1 to a postgraduate course. Assume that in families
PrrecordingjX D x wx, 
of given size n, the probability of a family with
Here the recording (weight) function wx,  is a x boys coming into the record is proportional to
non-negative function with the parameter represent- x. Also, suppose that the number of boys follows
ing the recording (sighting) mechanism. Clearly, the a binomial distribution with probability parameter
2 Weighted distributions

Table 1 Family data from Example 1


Family size: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 Total
No. of families: 1 6 6 13 12 7 14 11 12 8 6 5 2 1 104
Brothers: 1 8 12 34 34 29 59 50 54 46 32 31 16 8 414
Sisters: 0 4 6 18 26 13 39 38 54 34 34 29 10 7 312

 
. Then fx;  D nx x 1  nx , wx D x, D has the form
  x1  
n, fw x;  D n1 x1  1  
nx , E XW /n D
 wx,  D wx, ,  D exp1  Ix,  5
 C 1  /n > , and E XW  1/n  1 D .
If k boys representing families of size n1 , n2 , . . . , where Ix,  is the KullbackLeibler distance func-
nk report x1 , x2 , . . . , xk boys, an unbiased estimate tion between x and  D D E[X] of the usual
of  is exponential family density function f with parameter

xi  k . The KullbackLeibler distance increases with the
414  104 1
Q D  D D 4 distance from the mean , thus allowing a more dis-
ni  k 726  104 2 tant observation, larger weight, and accommodating
extra dispersion in the dataset when 1  > 0.
Example 2 Analysis of intervention data, wx,  D
wx D x. The expected value of the duration to com- Example 4 Meta-analysis incorporating heterogen-
pletion of a random event sampled randomly at the eity and publication bias. Meta-analysis consists of
end of its duration turns out to be approximately equal quantitative methods for combining evidence from
to the expected duration of its random intervention. different studies on a particular issue. Its objective
This can be explained using the concept of size- is to summarize quantitatively a research literature
biased/length-biased sampling with weight function with respect to a particular question and to examine
wx,  D wx D x, where x represents the duration systematically the manner in which a collection of
of the random event in the life cycle assessment studies contributes to knowledge about that question.
(LCA). Applications in medicine and environmen- The weight function enters the analysis in order
tal health include: (a) cell cycle analysis and pulse to represent the publication/selection bias and the
labeling [41]; (b) efficacy of early screening for heterogeneity among different studies. It also helps
disease and scheduling of examinations [41]; (c) car- model the overdispersion/underdispersion in the
diac transplantation [39]; (d) estimation of antigen data caused by publication bias and any inherent
frequencies [35]; and (e) ascertainment studies in heterogeneity.
genetics [36]. The weight functions examined include:

Example 3 Modeling clustered sampling, hetero- 1. critical value model: wx D x/xcrit 
geneity, and extraneous variation, wx,  D if jxj < xcrit , and D 1 otherwise;
wx, , . During their examination of the problem 2. half-normal model: wx D exp[px2 ];
of toxoplasmosis, Diaconis and Efron [6, 8] studied 3. negative exponential model: wx D
the data and found that there was more dispersion exp[px].
in the data than existing models could accommo-
date. They therefore introduced a model called the Here px is the P value when the test statistic
double-exponential family (DEF). This family allows takes value x, and xcrit stands for the critical value
the data analyst to model overdispersion while carry- under the test statistic; see [10], [12] and [24].
ing out usual regression analyses for the mean as a
function of the predictors (see Dispersion parame- Example 5 Statistical analysis incorporating over-
ter). The overdispersion may be due to one or more dispersion and heterogeneity in teratological binary
possible causes, such as clustered sampling, hetero- data. The problem of overdispersion and heterogene-
geneity, selection bias, etc. ity in binary data arises quite naturally in devel-
Interestingly, the DEF can be seen as a weighted opmental toxicity studies. Since a pregnant female
distribution; see [18] and [24]. The weight function is exposed to the chemical dose, litter becomes the
Weighted distributions 3

primary unit. The random effect of the litter, i.e. bio- Encounter probabilities in transect sampling can
logical response of the mother to the chemical dose, be influenced by numerous other factors, such as
affects the toxic responses of the fetuses. This poten- varying terrain and vegetation cover, weather condi-
tial random litter effect causes heterogeneity, excess tions, time of day, systematic responsive movement
variation, and also intra-litter correlation between the toward or away from the transect, etc. Some of these
responses of fetuses within the litter. factors are characteristics of the objects themselves
In order to incorporate this random litter effect and will vary from object to object. Size is an exam-
in the analysis of such binary data, research workers ple of such a factor. Other factors are generally survey
have introduced the beta-binomial distribution. The characteristics but can vary from segment to segment
beta-binomial model, regarded as a binomial mixture in a multisegmented survey. We refer to members of
model, incorporates overdispersion, heterogeneity, these two classes as object factors and survey factors,
and also the clustering of observations within the lit- respectively.
ter. This clustering occurs because of the tendency of It is clearly desirable to account for as many of
the fetuses within the litter to behave alike. For this these factors as possible, and much of the recent
reason, the use of a double-binomial family model transect sampling literature has been concerned with
(a form of DEF distribution) is a useful alternative this issue.
model in the analysis of developmental toxicity data.
The problem of analysis of overdispersed binary Deep-sea Red Crab
data stemming from different litters at a given dose
Patil et al. [28, 29] describe a photographic survey in
or from different cities with given rainfall can also be
which features of optical geometry partially masked
viewed as the problem of encounter data where one
the sighting-distance bias by inflating the recorded
is trying to combine the observational data coming
counts at larger distances from the transect. The
from different sources. Therefore one can view both
surveys purpose was to determine the abundance of
the beta-binomial and also the double binomial as
the deep-sea red crab. The data were analyzed using
weighted binomial distributions where each model
a composite weight function of form
has its own separate weight function.
The two distributions are quite comparable in wx D a C bx vx;  6
their capability to describe overdispersed binary data.
It appears that the choice between them may be where the sighting function vx;  represented the
made on such grounds as parameter interpretation and pure sighting-distance bias and would typically in-
inferential convenience; see [27] and [38]. volve the unknown parameters, . For the red crab
study, the exponential-power sighting function gave
Example 6 Extra-distance sources of encounter bias a reasonable fit to the data and yielded abundance
in transect sampling. The method of line-transect estimates that were consistent with the results of other
sampling has been used to estimate the abundance survey methods [40].
of plants or animals of a particular species in a given Ramsey [32] has suggested a general technique for
region. The line-transect method consists of drawing constructing parametric visibility functions in which
a baseline across the region to be surveyed and then the effective half width appears explicitly as a scale
drawing a line transect through a randomly selected parameter. Starting with a kernel ht; , 0 < t < 1,
point on the baseline. The surveyor views the sur- which is monotone  decreasing in t and satisfies
roundings while walking along the line transect and h0;  D 0 and 01 ht;  dt D 1, Ramseys family
includes the sighted objects of interest in the sample. of sighting functions is defined by
It is obvious that the nearer the object or the  
larger its size, the higher is the probability of sighting x
wx; ,  D h 7
the object. Similarly, when the individuals cluster in ; 
groups, such as schools or herds, it is appropriate Here,  is a vector of nuisance parameters that
to regard clusters as the basic sampling units; their regulates the shape of the sighting function. A com-
encounter probabilities are affected by cluster size. mon choice of kernel is the exponential-power form
Estimates of cluster abundance can be adjusted to
individual abundance using the recorded cluster sizes. ht;  D exp[1 C  1 t ] 8
4 Weighted distributions

which includes the negative exponential and the half- Presumably there would be examples in which f
normal as special cases. is more informative for some  and less informative
Drummer and McDonald [7] have considered the for other .
problem of estimating minke whale abundance where For the most part, we consider the size-biased
the group size, an object-specific factor, becomes weight function wx D x. Other weight functions
important. They take the group as the basic sighting do not introduce new concepts though they may be
object and include the group size y as a scaling factor of practical interest. For example, the weight func-
in the exponential-power sighting function tion w0 D 0, wx D 1, x > 0, allows one to com-
pare the information content of zero-truncated and
wx, y D wx, y; , ,  untruncated observations from a discrete distribution.
 

x  Bayarri and DeGroot [1] give an extensive treatment


D exp 1 C  1  9 of single-parameter truncation models from the per-
y
spective of Blackwell sufficiency as well as Fisher
Example 7 Biased sampling, model weight func- information.
tion, and the amount of information. While it might
be supposed that biased sampling is disadvanta- Log Exponential Family
geous for purposes of inference on the population
parameters, this is not always the case. The sam- The log exponential family has a pdf given by
pling bias, when properly accounted for, can lead to
stronger inferences than would be possible with an cxelog x x  cx
equal number of observations from the original dis- fx D D 12
M M
tribution. Patil and Taillie [23] consider observations
from a one-parameter exponential family where M is the Mellin transform of c(x). For this
family one can show that for arbitrary weight function
cxeAx w, the difference in Fisher information is
fx D 10
M
and an equal number of observations from the wx- Jw   J D varlog Xw   varlog X 13
weighted version of this family
In particular, the variable with larger logarithmic
wxcxeAx variance is more informative for .
fw x D 11 For the remainder of this section we consider only
Mw 
the size-biased weight function, wx D x, for which
The intent is to compare the relative information Mw  D M C 1.
content of the two sets of observations for inferences
concerning . In particular, which of the two families
is more informative for ? Also, for given w(x), when Lognormal Distribution

is it the case that f and fw are equally informative 1 1 1 2


for  (a situation that may be described as Fisher fx D p exp  2 log x   14
2% 2 x 2%
neutral )? The results are:

1 1 1 2
Dp exp  2 log x
1. The weighted version of f is uniformly more 2% 2 x 2%
informative for  if and only if Mw /M is
exp[ /% 2  log x]
log convex. 15
2. The weighted version of f is uniformly less exp 2 /2% 2 
informative for  if and only if Mw /M is
log concave. When % 2 is known, (15) is a log exponential
3. f and fw are uniformly equally informative family with  D /% 2 and
(Fisher neutral) if and only if Mw /M is 
log-linear. For given w, this characterizes Fisher 2 %2
M D exp 2
D exp 2 16
neutrality by a functional equation involving M. 2% 2
Weighted distributions 5

Thus of Blackwells [2, 3] comparison of experiments.


 Intrigued by the idea that encountered, and biased,
%2 data might sometimes be more scientifically revealing
Mw  D M C 1 D exp  C 12 17
2 than experimental data, Patil and Taillie [25] investi-
gated the issue further.
and  Let fx;  be the natural distribution and fw x; 
Mw  %2
D exp 2 C 1 18 / wx fx;  be the corresponding weighted dis-
m 2 tribution, where  is a vector of parameters. Also
let J and Jw  be the respective Fisher infor-
Since this is log-linear in , it follows that the
mation matrices for  (see Information matrix).
lognormal is Fisher neutral for /% 2 . This has a
Intrinsic comparison between the weighted and nat-
simple interpretation since the effect of the weight
ural observations is possible when the difference,
function is to translate the corresponding normal
Jw   J, is either positive definite or negative
curve to the right by an amount equal to % 2 .
We conclude this section with a curious example definite. For example, positive definiteness would
in which size biasing sometimes increases informa- mean that every scalar-valued function of  could
tion and sometimes decreases information depending be estimated with smaller asymptotic standard error
upon the value of a second parameter. Consider again under the weighted observation. The natural observa-
the lognormal distribution (15) and let  D /% 2 tions are similarly favored when the difference is neg-
and ' D 1/% 2 . Regard  as known and ' as unknown. ative definite. However, definiteness of Jw   J
The pdf is appears to be a rare occurrence (unless  is a scalar),
and one usually has to conclude that relative infor-
log x2 mativeness depends upon the question being asked.
exp ' C  log x When Jw   J is indefinite, comparison of
1 1 2
fx D p p 19 weighted and natural observations can be made in at
2 x 1/ ' exp 2 /2' least two ways:
so
1. In terms of a suitable scalar-valued measure of
exp 2 /2' joint information for . Here the reciprocal of
M' D p
' the generalized variance, det [J], naturally
suggests itself.
exp[ C 12 /2']
Mw ' D p 20 2. In terms of the standard error of estimation for
' the scalar-valued function of  that is considered
 
Mw ' 2 C 1 most relevant to the scientific problem at hand.
D exp
m' 2'
The first possibility has been studied by Patil
and and Taillie [24] for the two-parameter gamma,
  negative binomial, and lognormal distributions and
d2 Mw ' d2 2 C 1 2 C 1
log D D 21 with known weight function wx D x . In all these
d'2 m' d'2 2' '3 cases, Jw   J is indefinite. For the gamma
Positivity is equivalent to 2 C 1 > 0 which is and negative binomial distributions, the weighted
equivalent to  /% 2  >  12 . Note that Fisher neutral- observations are jointly less informative for  when
ity occurs when  /% 2  D  12 which happens when generalized variance is the criterion. However, the
the normal curves corresponding to X and Xw are relative efficiency is quite close to unity unless the
symmetrically located with respect to the origin. shape parameter is small (less than 0.5, say). The
lognormal distribution is an interesting case because
Example 8 Informative weighted multiparameter det [Jw ] D det [J] for all  so that weighted and
distributions. Bayarri and DeGroot [1] posed the unweighted observations are equally informative in
question of whether weighted observations could terms of the generalized variance.
be more informative than the corresponding natu- The following species abundance example applies
ral observations especially from the point of view the second possibility to the truncated lognormal
6 Weighted distributions

distribution with parameters and % 2 . The example when the natural observations are independent. In
is motivated by Prestons [30, 31] lognormal distribu- a certain overall sense, observations from the dou-
tion of species abundance. Scientific interest resides ble bivariatenormal are more informative in spite
primarily in the parameter % 2 which is related to the of overdispersion.
evenness component of species diversity [24].
Example 10 Propagation functions for monitoring
distributional changes. Status and trend are the two
Species Abundance important components in the assessment and mon-
itoring of the environmentally important variables.
Preston [30, 31] argues that in large ecological com-
The former is an indicator of the overall state of
munities, the various species have their abundance
the variable of interest whereas trend describes the
X0 distributed according to a lognormal curve with
changes occurring in it over time (see Trend, detect-
parameters 0 and % 2 . If an investigator samples a
ing). These two indicators are typically distinguished
fraction t of the individuals in the community, then
in the environmental data by their spatial or tempo-
a species with natural abundance X0 has recorded
ral components. The first is a single snapshot which
abundance X D t X0 . (As Preston points out, the
may arise for studying the spatial patterns, e.g. to
analysis is only approximate since it ignores sampling
assess the damage caused by the abrupt rupture in
fluctuation. With Poisson sampling, for example, the
a hazardous waste storage facility; here the empha-
Poissonlognormal would be a more appropriate
sis is on the rapid assessment of the damage spa-
sampling distribution.) Now X D tX0 follows a log-
tially and the temporal sparseness is not important.
normal distribution with parameters and % 2 , where
The other is a multiple snapshot type required for
D 0 C ln t. The parameter of primary interest is
long-term environmental monitoring. After a rapid
D 1/% 2 since it is a measure of species evenness.
assessment of damage, impact of rupture is moni-
Preston also notes that species with X < 1 will
tored over a period of time in the vicinity of the
go unrecorded so that the observed data actually
site of incident. Monitoring is done by collecting
follow a truncated lognormal with truncation point
the data at suitably selected, fixed monitoring sta-
located at X D 1 (or at ln X D 0). Preston refers to the
tions. Typically these networks are spatially sparse,
truncation point as the veil line: when the sampling
but generate multiple snapshots over a specified time
intensity increases, the frequency curve moves to the
period. A primary objective of the investigator in such
right relative to the veil line and additional species
monitoring studies is to describe changes in the fre-
become unveiled.
quencies over time in the values of the variable of
Example 9 Modeling bivariate overdispersion. In interest.
developmental toxicity studies, one sometimes has Consider the situation where a set of monitoring
more than two possible responses. For example, the stations is chosen by a random process from a pool
responses might be death, malformation, and normal of stations, and then an environmentally important
(see Multiple outcomes). Here, the simplest model indicator X is measured at baseline time t1 and
would be the trinomial, but this would probably at later times t2 , t3 , . . . . The main interest is in the
have to be generalized to account for overdispersion. change(s) in the distribution of X through time for
Two such generalizations suggest themselves imme- the population stations as reflected by the sampled
diately: (a) the Dirichlet-trinomial (see Dirichlet- stations. McDonald et al. [15] proposed the concept
multinomial distribution) and (b) a multivariate of a selection function to describe changes in the
DEF with f x as the trinomial distribution and population. This idea has been used primarily in the
and x multivariate. For the double bivariatenormal context of biological populations and has applications
distribution, in the univariate case, the double nor- in the study of natural selection [13], and resource
mal is again normal with an altered variance, making selection [14]. In natural selection, the variable under
it rather uninteresting. Similarly, the double bivari- study does not change. The changes, if any, are due
atenormal distribution remains bivariate normal but to removal of some individuals from the population
with the interesting feature that the correlation is due to some natural reasons, e.g. predation. Formally,
affected by the overdispersion. In particular, the the selection function is defined as a function that
recorded observations can exhibit correlation even describes how the individuals in the population must
Weighted distributions 7

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sampling methods and their applications to the deep-sea vironmental)
red crab, in Advanced Concepts in Ocean Measurements
for Marine Biology, F.P. Diemer, F.J. Vernberg & G.P. PATIL

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