Climate Change and Humanitarian Action

Complex Systems, Change and Poverty Alleviation: An Interactive Learning Session
29 April, 2008

Douglas R. Brown and Christopher Shore

Climate Change
• A growing global consensus that human activities are leading to Climate Change • The poor are the least equipped to tackle Climate Change and hence will be disproportionately affected in adverse ways

• Since the poor are most VULNERABLE and least able to ADAPT to Climate Change, WV must be involved • The poor can gain access to a multi-billion dollar carbon credit market. They can:
– – Participate and benefit from these markets Have a significant impact on the reduction of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere

World Vision’s View

• Corporations, churches, and individuals can exercise their environmental responsibilities in a way that also alleviates 3 poverty

no till – improved soil carbon) .• Ensure participation of the poor in the emerging carbon market – Provide access to carbon credits – Encourage community based activities in existing Area Development Programmes – Provide direct environmental benefits to communities through CPR activities The CPR Initiative • Link Climate Change mitigation with AFOLU projects in the developing world for poverty reduction – – – – 4 Reforestation Avoided deforestation Increased agro-forestry Sustainable agriculture (e.g.

by measuring and monitoring.Expected WV Policy Framework KNOW Know. the activities the WV Global Partnership. or POSITIVELY affect the planet and its environment. OFFSET OFFSET those negative activities which cannot be effectively reduced. 5 . IMPROVE REDUCE the negative impact the WV Global Partnership has on the planet’s environment. which: NEGATIVELY affect the planet and its environment. And INCREASE the positive impact the WV Global Partnership has on the planet’s environment.

largely DRR and Resilience (Community.Expected Way Forward Mitigation Reducing greenhouse gas: Emissions Concentrations Adaptation Coping with and adapting to Climate Change effects .Environmental Policy Needed KNOW our impact. environment) Public Engagement & Policy All people everywhere can contribute. Existing Core Value . OFFSET remaining negative impacts. We ensure that our development activities are ecologically sound.We are stewards of God's Creation. We care for the earth and act in ways that will restore and protect the environment. 6 . REDUCE negative and INCREASE positive impacts. the poor must be part of the solution WV Policy Framework .

Executive Team Adaptation Working Group Very tight and natural connection to HEA. Communications. 7 . and Marketing.PROPOSED Climate Change Community of Interest Reference Team Mitigation Working Group Very tight and natural connection to TD and work of various parts of the Integrated Technical Teams. Business Team Public Engagement & Advocacy Very tight and natural connection to Advocacy. Other Working Groups Other Working Groups Other Working Groups Other Working Groups Other Working Groups Small Climate Change staff group supporting the Climate Change COP and its 3 Permanent Working Groups.

how it is changing • WV needs to build capacity and understanding of Climate Change issues • WV has been working on Climate Change issues for last 2 years 8 . how to improve it.World Vision and Climate Change • Climate Change is NOT a new sector in TD or HEA • Climate Change is a long-term reality for WV. which will affect ALL parts of our work • Climate Change will force WV to explicitly consider the natural environment – our impact upon it.

9 .

CΔ and Human Well-Being • Combating climate change is central to humanitarian action – Climate change is not only an environmental problem as there are: • Social aspects • Economic aspects – Climate change is fundamentally a development problem 10 .

flood.Climate Change – why important • The predicted impact of climate change – Sea level rise • Coastal cities. landslide. sea surge – Changing precipitation patterns • Seasons and precipitation regimes change • Water and sanitation – Changing disease patterns 11 . Low lying islands – Extreme weather and climate events • Frequency and severity • Drought.

Climate Change – why important • Linkages and feedbacks with other systems – Social systems • Conflict arising from competition for scarcer resources – Environmental migration • Forced displacement • Voluntary movement – Local and global economic systems • Food grain availability and prices • Viability of livelihood strategies 12 .

Economic Change – why important • Changing food prices and vulnerability – Winners and losers • Farmers and consumers – Changing demand for food grains • Biofuels • Dietary patterns – Changing supply of food grains • Cost of production • Environmental change/degradation – Impact on humanitarian assistance 13 .

Implications of Change • Environmental degradation • Settlement patterns • Livelihood choices • Behaviour • Probability & severity of events • Modulates effect of extreme events • Disaster risk • Ecosystem health 14 .

Implications of Change • Recurrent disasters – Repeating with greater frequency and intensity • Result in – ↓ Livelihood assets/resources – ↓ Recovery capacity (resilience) – from current shock – ↑ Vulnerability – to next shock – ↑ Numbers falling into destitution 15 .

Implications of Change • Uncertainty of region-specific effects – Need to emphasize increased capacity to respond to a range of possible impacts – Coincidence of activities – Surprises – past not reliable predictor • Adaptive capacity • Sustainable development 16 .

adverse effects of climate change.Vulnerability and Adaptation • Vulnerability – “The degree to which a system is susceptible to. including climate variability and extremes” (IPCC 2001) • Exposure and adaptive capacity • Poverty and vulnerability – – – – 17 Livelihood resources Inequality in access and distribution of resources Institutions and social capital Non-climatic factors that limit adaptive capacity . or unable to cope with.

Vulnerability and Adaptation • Adaptation – “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects. scenarios-driven approach – Bottom-up. which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC 2007) • Approaches to adaptation – Top-down. vulnerability-driven approach • Examples 18 .

Passive. Natural. Policy. Active or Strategic Private. Intentional. Incidental or Automatic Responsive or ex post Proactive or ex ante Long term or Cumulative Short term. Contingency or Routine 19 .Types of Adaptation Typology Main Descriptive Term Planned Autonomous Timing Reactive Anticipatory Duration Strategic Tactical Additional/Alternative Terms Purposefulness Public. Instantaneous. Purposeful. Spontaneous.

Very little attention is given to specific climate change impacts but actions can increase resilience to climate stresses and shocks These capacity building actions lay the foundation for more targeted adaptation actions Examples? Actins which build response capacity Actions which manage climate risk Climate information is incorporated into decisions to reduce the negative affects of climatic impacts—due to either variability or climate change—on resources and livelihoods Actions taken respond almost exclusively to impacts known to be caused by climate change. Actions which confront climate change 20 .A Continuum of Possible Actions Actions which address the drivers of vulnerability Activities reduce poverty and address other fundamental shortages of capability that make people vulnerable to harm.

holistic approach 21 . proactive relief is somewhat developmental in nature • A three-legged stool – Advocacy. sustainable development mitigates the need for relief responses – Good. relief and development – A combined.Avenues for Action • Relief-development dichotomy is unhelpful – Good.

resources – Reduce the need to respond • Disaster risk reduction? • Adaptation and mitigation? – Environmental stewardship • What example should we set? 22 .Avenues for Action • “We are responsive” – Tendency to be reactive • Proactive action – Capacity to respond • What is needed? – skills.

Avenues for Action • Proactive humanitarian action – Prevent destitution (protect livelihood assets) • Facilitates recovery – Environmentally sensitive assistance • Reduce negative impact • Restore damaged ecology – Livelihood recovery • Restoration of a nonviable livelihood strategy • Facilitate transition to a sustainable livelihood strategy 23 .

Avenues for Action • Proactive humanitarian action – Response capacity of NGOs – ability to react • Skill set • Resources • Types of response needed – Rapid onset – Slow onset – Adaptive capacity of local populations • Disaster risk reduction • Resilient ecosystems and communities 24 .

Hilly landscapes – Latin America and Caribbean – 4. Global grain supplies and prices – 25 . Agro-pastoral regions – Africa – 3.Scenarios 1. Coastal cities and island states – Asia – Impact of sea level rise and increased frequency and intensity of tropical storms on low-lying coastal areas Impact of more frequent and severe dry periods and flooding on agropastoral ecosystems and rural livelihoods Impact of more frequent and intense tropical cyclones on peri-urban populations of poor living on sloping landscapes Impact of higher grain prices on poor populations and the provision of humanitarian assistance 2.

Scenario One • Coastal cities and island states – Impact of sea level rise and increased frequency and intensity of tropical storms on low-lying coastal areas – Urban poor – Displacement/migration – Rural-urban linkages – Economic vulnerability 26 .

Scenario Two • Agro-pastoral regions – Africa – Impact of more frequent and severe dry periods and flooding on agro-pastoral ecosystems and rural livelihoods – Migration – Vulnerability and resilience – Repeated shocks overlaid on chronic poverty 27 .

Scenario Three • Hilly landscapes – Latin America and Caribbean – Impact of more frequent and intense tropical cyclones on peri-urban populations of poor living on sloping landscapes – Deforestation and destabilization of slopes 28 .

seasonal buyers and sellers – Non-farmers • Urban poor – Need for and provision of humanitarian assistance 29 . net buyers.Scenario Four • Global grain supplies and prices – Impact of higher grain prices on poor populations and the provision of humanitarian assistance • Rural poor – Farmers – net sellers.

NGOs. rural/urban.Scenario Analysis • Identify the principal actors – Poor/rich. social. economic. political • Identify the linkages and feedbacks – Positive – reinforcing changes – Negative – moderating changes – Between actors. issues. other • Identify the principal forces/issues – Environmental. regions (rural. urban) 30 . forces. government.

Scenario Analysis • Change – Past and current changes – Likely future change • Identify the areas of vulnerability – Possible scenarios and how they might evolve – Impact on the most vulnerable – Impact on coping capacity 31 .

DRR) • Which areas can we act upon? – How? – When? – Who’s responsible? 32 .Scenario Analysis • Identify pressure points – areas for action – Reactive adaptation (disaster response) – Proactive adaptation (mitigation.

Thank You 33 .

ISDR. World Vision International. Antonio . 2007. 2008. International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD): Winnipeg. 2008. Tasneem Mowjee. Perry. 2005. Vulnerability and Adaptation in Developing Countries. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR): Geneva.wvi. IISD. World Vision Australia: Melbourne. Regional Climate Predictions: Horn of Africa: Sudan. Save the Children UK: London. Legacy of Disasters: The Impact of Climate Change on Children. https://wvioqp1. 2008. Save the Children UK.nsf/h_Toc/4DF38292D748069D0525670800167212/?OpenDocument • • • • • • • 34 . and Andrew Wilder. Christian Aid: London.Selected Sources • • Christian Aid. Larissa Fast. 2007. Human tide: The real migration crisis. Humanitarian Agenda 2015: The State of the Humanitarian Enterprise. World Vision Australia. Donini. Vulnerability and Adaptation: The Basics. Feinstein International Center. 2008. 2008. Tufts University: Medford. Environmental Sustainability and Disaster Risk Reduction. World Vision International. Greg Hansen. Jo-Ellen. Humanitarian and Emergency Affairs. Regional Risk Mapping Project Report. Ethiopia & Somalia. Simon Harris. Asia Pacific Region. Larry Minear.

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