Dwiharso Nugroho, Dr. Ir. MT.

RESOURCES ESTIMATION AND Sedimentology, Stratigraphy and

Subsurface Geology Labs.
Faculty/School of Earth Sciences and

RISK ASSESMENT Technology (FITB)

Institut Teknologi Bandung
RESOURCE ESTIMATION
There are two kind of resources : unrisked and risked resources.
Unrisked resources were calculated by multiplying gross rock volume,
net to gross, porosity, and oil saturation then divide by formation
factor,
while risked resources were calculated by multiplying the unrisked
resources with probability of success from the risk assesment.
Gross rock volume were obtained from depth structure map, while net
to gross, porosity, and oil saturation were estimated from either log
analysis or seismic attributes.
 ESTIMATING PROSPECT RESERVES CONSTITUENT PARAMETER
Constituen Parameter

Fig. 6 Reserves parameters for exploration prospects (deterministic)

 Productive Area

Fig. 7 Area, average net pay, and HC-recovery factor are lognormal
 Table 4. Reality checks (1): Characteristic of the endpoints of the
reserves distribution
"LOW END" "HIGH END"
Absolute Minimum Reasonable Minimum Onshore Known Max Values
Absolute Maximum (P1%)
(P99% ) (P90%) Development Well for N American Fields
Area too small to be Honoring the data, the
Approximately the area of Onshore production
economic anywhere; maximum area possible if all
an onshore field that is spacing units: 10-60 500,000 acres (oil)
roughly the area of a relevant geologic and
economically marginal; acres (oil)
very small one-well geophysical factors are most
field. Must be typically about 1-3 onshore favorable; area so large as to
AREA consistent with production spacing units. be barely possible.
expected trap May vary according to
geometry. structural configuration. 160-640 acres (gas) 5,000,000 acres (gas)
Could be larger in a frontier
play area.

Pay zone just thick Roughly the minimum More than 3 feet Maximum average net pay 1,000' oil
enough to sustain flow thickness you would (=1meter) thickness possible based on
of mobile HCs sufficient consider completing in an regional isopach and
AVERAGE to sense in mudstream onshore field. Could be net/gross maps, and
NET PAY or logs, and sustain on a thicker in a frontier play considering geometric factor.
DST. area. Thickness so large as to be
barely possible.
Ordinarily less than 100 Minimum porosity and More than 100 Compare critically with
bbl/af; too fight for an permeability to sustain for, bbl/af (oil) highest projected; HC- 1,200 bbl/af (oil)
economic reservoir, or to be commercial recovery factor known (or
HC- even onshore; sufficient onshore, consistent with analogous) for trend. Also
RECOVER permeability to barely pertinent data in trend. Pay justify against high-side
Y FACTOR flow. Must be attention to values in More than 125 estimates of 0, S, %Rec., and 2,000 mcf/af (gas)
consistent with known analog fields. mcf/af (gas) FVF.
reservoir properties in
trend.
A small, noneconomic A modest onshore field of 16,000 BOE
accumulation with only about 1-3 wells; could be More than -40,000 Compare critically with the (Prudhoe) 6,000
ULTIMAT bbl oil
enough reserves to larger in a frontier play largest existing field in the MMBOE (E.Texas)
E
barely flow; area. trend, or reasonable analog;
RECOVER
comparable with a More than 250,000 check against trend FSD; must 70,000 BCFG
Y BOE
mediocre onshore one- MCFG be prospect-specific. (Hugoton)
well field.
 Generation of the Prospect-reserves Distribution

Fig. 12 Graphical method for analytical solution for combining three lognormal
distributions by multiplication
Table 6. Reality checks (2): Characteristic ranges associated with oil and
gas ventures having different magnitudes of uncertainty
RISK ASSESSMENT
Risk assessment were carried by doing analysis on petroleum system
elements and processes. The main factors assessed for each elements are
as follows:
1. Source rock: Capacity for hydrocarbon charge within fetch area and source rock
maturity, refer to burial history analysis
2. Reservoir: Presence and quality (capacity for stabilized flow), refer to lead and
prospect static modeling
3. Trap: Trap definition (confidence in data), characteristics, and seal (top seal, fault seal,
stratigraphic seal, and other seal). Fault seal probability value refer to fault seal
analysis , and other seal which is pore pressure probability value refer to pore pressure
analysis
4. Timing and migration (dynamics element): Timing, migration pathways, and preservation
(or segregation) refer to burial history analysis.

Probability factor value is ranging from 0.1 to 0.9, which 0.1 means very
poor, 0.5 means moderate, and 0.9 means very good.
Table below showing probability factor for each prospects which then
multiplied to get the probability of success