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where r* + IP = rRF
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Risk and Return - individual assets Risk and Return - individual assets
Risk = P( Actual returns < Expected returns )
Buy a 20 year STN bond to hold for 2 years
Example: A 2 year Treasury bond; hold until maturity; where the expected return = 15% [ E(r) = 15%]
pays 4% / year
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Risk and Return Problem
Stock A has the following probability distribution of
expected returns:
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Normal Distribution Risk and Return for portfolios
4
Portfolio expected return and
Calculations
standard deviation
Xi Stocki E(r)i i
40.0% LAS 9.0% 4.24% Portfolio Expected Return
60.0% MGM 12.0% 10.60%
E(r)p = (.40)(.09) + (.60)(.12) = 10.8%
E(r)p 10.80%
p, if = +1.0 8.0%
p, if = 0.0 6.6%
p, if = -1.0 4.7%
= 0, no correlation, p = 6.6% For each asset some risk can be eliminated when
combined with other assets in a portfolio (unless p=+1)
= -1, perfect negative correlation, p =4.7%
Combine assets in such a manner to get Efficient Portfolio.
Remember: less correlation equates to lower risk!!
5
Look at an individual stock Beta - CAPM
Total Risk = i Beta = Measure of Market Risk - the risk that is relevant to
investors
Some risk can be eliminated by including the stock in a
portfolio -call this that can be eliminated diversifiable or
company-specific risk. BETA () measures of a particular stock's variation in
return relative to the market.
Some risk can not be eliminated - call this
nondiversifiable or market risk. = cov(ri,rm)/2m = imim / 2m = im x (i / m )
Risk that is important to investors is nondiversifiable or = 1.0 moves exactly with market
market risk. > 1.0 moves more than market (> risk)
< 1.0 moves less than market (< risk)
risk aversion (def) - dislike risk = 0.0 no risk (Risk-Free)
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What does the CAPM tell us? Security Market Line (SML)
Security Market Line (SML)
What is our expected return at a given level 25.0%
of risk (the risk that is important to an
Expected Return
20.0%
investor holding a well-diversified portfolio 15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Beta
Hold everything - market portfolio - eliminates all P0 = fair price according to public information
diversifiable risk - Impossible!
ri = depends on risk relative to market risk ()
Hold 8-10 assets - closely approximates market Says, buy securities and form your portfolio according to
risk preference
(eliminates most diversifiable risk)
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Recap: Risk and Return Recap: Risk and Return
Goal: to quantify risk and return so we can compare and choose Assumes that everyone (investors) are bright enough to hold a well-
investment opportunities. diversified efficient portfolio.
We saw how to calculate expected return Only risk that matters is nondiversifiable risk (market risk) - measured
by
E(r) = ( pi x ri )
Use CAPM and to calculate expected return for relevant risk.
We saw how to calculate risk Risk and Return are quantified!!!!
= { (ri E(ri)]2 pi }1/2 Therefore investors want to own efficient portfolios. Which ones? The
one that correspond to the level of risk they want to assume.
But if we form a portfolio we can eliminate some risk - if we form
portfolio in such a manner to eliminate all extra (diversifiable) risk we Trade-off: Between Risk and Return
have efficient portfolio (def).