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Kaden Aldous

Math 1030

Voting Project

Part 1

Historically after the democratic protest that occurred in 1968, the Democratic Party

decided to make changes to their presidential nominating process by distributing the schedule

throughout all fifty states.. Since Iowa had to difficult of a difficult process of precinct caucuses,

district, county, and a state convention, they chose to start earlier than others. In 1972, Iowa was

the first state to hold their Democratic caucus, which influenced the first Republican caucus,

which occurred four years later. In the state of Iowa, every two years a local meeting is held for

both the republican and democratic parties. This meeting is called The Iowa Caucus. When it

is the year for the presidential election, citizens who attend the meeting vote for their candidate

of choice for their partys nomination. When they get together a year where there isnt a

presidential election, then they merely discusses party platform issues. Once the residents of

Iowa elect delegates to the corresponding conventions in all counties included in Iowa, then

these county convections choose which delegates for both Iowas congressional district

convention and the state best represent the presidential nominating conventions. Statistically, one

percent of the nations delegates are chosen by the Iowa state convention. Since 1972, the Iowa

caucus have had 43% success rate at predicting the democratic winner, and 50% rate at

predicting the republican winner. Although primaries and caucuses are two different voting

methods, they both tend to accomplish the same outcome. They both give the opportunity for

voters to selects their parties presidential nominee. Differentially the caucus provides a setting to

analyze and discuss the candidates, whereas the primary just gives to opportunity to vote without

Kaden Aldous
Math 1030

Part 3

Donald Trump wins using the Plurality Method. It satisfies the majority criteria. If a

choice has a majority of first place votes, that choice should be the winner. However, the thirty

nine or thirty nine percent of votes that he received was not a true majority of fifty percent or

above. Mainly he did not pass the Condorcet criteria. The Condorcet criteria stats If there is a

choice that is preferred in every one to one comparison with the other choices that choice should

be the winner. Also he was not the winner using any of the other methods. Why not? And why

wasnt he a clear-cut winner. Ted Cruz wins using the instant runoff voting method. But that

method violates the monotonicity criteria and the independence of its irrelevant alternatives

criteria. The monotonicity criteria state that if voters change their votes to increase the preference

for a candidate it should not harm that candidate chances of winning. Marco Rubio wins using

cope lands method where each pair of candidates is compared. It satisfies the independence of

irrelevant alternative criteria and the monotonicity criteria, and the condor cit criteria. The

independence of irrelevant alternative criteria states that if a non winning choice is removed from

the ballad, it should not change the winner. Rubio also wins using the borda count method, even

though it violates the monotonicity criteria. I favor voting for Marco Rubio because I agree

heavily with cope lands method, plus him also winning with more than one method used.