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Título original: Group Assignment Module Geoscience

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DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT

UGM

Graduate School Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta Phone/Fax. (0274) 564239

Website http://www.geo.ugm.ac.id, www.geoinfopasca.ugm.ac.id and

http://www.itc.nl/pub/study/programmes/joint-educations

GROUP ASSIGNMENT

LECTURER:

Prof. Dr. Kirbani S. Brotopuspito

By:

Group of Java

1. Iwan Rhosadi

2. Haikal Muhammad Ihsan

3. La Ode Abdul Sadri

4. Moh. Taufiq Ismu A.

SEPTEMBER 2017

PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION (PGA) MAXIMUM AND b-VALUE OF

JAVA, BALI, NUSA TENGGARA AND LAMPUNG 1973-2017

(102 120 E, 5 20 S)

Introduction

Earthquake is defined as the result of a sudden release of stored energy in the Earth's

crust that creates seismic waves. At the Earth's surface, earthquakes may manifest themselves by

a shaking or displacement of the ground which can cause damage to the building that usually

causes casualties.

The probability of damaging earthquake ground motions at the site under evaluation is

called Seismic Hazard. Seismic hazard is distinct from "seismic risk" which is defined as the

potential for damages and casualties to the built environment. A region may have high seismic

hazards, but very little seismic risk if the area is sparsely populated or if buildings are well

designed to resist seismic forces. On the other hand, a highly populated area with moderate

seismic hazards may have high seismic risk if the built environment is highly vulnerable to

earthquake damages.

To determine seismic hazard degree of a certain place is usually used Peak Ground

Acceleration (PGA) Maximum value. PGA Maximum is a maximum ground movement velocity

happened in a given location measured because of earthquake occurrence in a given time and

considering magnitude, hypocenter and ground dominant period. Unlike the Richter magnitude

scale, it is not a measure of the total size of the earthquake, but rather how hard the earth shakes

in a given geographic area. PGA is usually expressed as a percentage of g (the acceleration of

gravity). At 100% g of horizontal acceleration, unbolted objects (such as a file cabinet) move

horizontally as if they were dropped from the ceiling or as if the room were turned on its side, or

furniture and contents are tossed around and there is great damage. For buildings, 100% g

horizontal acceleration adds a horizontal or lateral force equal to the building's weight. PGA

value depends on the distance between epicenter and location, depth of epicenter and magnitude.

The magnitude of an earthquake is the most commonly used parameter of earthquake

size. The statistical distribution of sizes for a group of earthquakes is complicated. (Gutenberg

and Richter, 1944 in Kayal, 2006) provided the simplest earthquake occurrence of frequency-

magnitude relation, which describes a power law relation:

Log10N = a bM

Where N is the number of earthquakes in a group having a magnitude larger than M, a is a

constant and b is the slope of the log-linear relation. The estimated slope of the log-linear

relation or the coefficient b is known as b-value.

The b-value should be estimated carefully as the self-similarity may break with the

following three stages: smaller events (M<3.0), medium events (3<M<Msaturate), and larger

events (M>Msaturate). The smaller events may give lower b-value because of a shortage of

recorded smaller events, while bigger events may give higher b-value because of the saturation

of the magnitude (Scholz, 1990 in Kayal, 2006). (Pacheco et al. ,1992 in Kayal, 2006) found that

a break in self-similarity, from small to large earthquakes, occur at a point where the dimension

of the event equals the down-dip width of the seismogenic layer.

Figure 1. Earthquake Distribution Map of Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and Lampung 1973-2017

Method

Procedure to determine PGA max value as follows:

A. Obtaining earthquake occurrence data recorded correspondent to the observed area

(figure 1). The data can be downloaded from NEIC USGS sites on the internet. The

sites provide data such as :

- Time of occurrence ( Year, Month, Date, Time of origin)

- Geographic location

- Depth

- Magnitude

B. Sampling data, Sample data are obtained by using grid point 0.5 degrees (55.5 Km

square) interval to cover the region (figure 2) and develop 63 grid points.

location) by using formula :

= (((1 2 )2 + (1 2 )2 )) + 2

x2 = x UTM coordinate of epicentre

y1 = y UTM coordinate of 1 point of view

y2 = y UTM coordinate of epicentre

d = depth of epicentre

D. Counting PGA value by using formula :

= ( + )

b1 = 472,3

b2 = 0,278

b3 = 1,301

M = Magnitude

Repi = distance of 1 point of view to epicentre

E. Plotting the PGA Max to Map, to develop PGA contour map used PGA max value in

each observed grid points and interpolate them using GIS software. We divide PGA

max value range into 20 interval scale to develop contour map.

F. Calculated b-Values

The b-values are estimated using two methods. The least-square fit method and the

maximum likelihood method. In the least-square fit method, the log values of the

cumulative number of earthquakes (N) are plotted with magnitudes (M). In the

maximum likelihood method, Aki, 1965 in Kayal, 2006, based on theoretical

considerations, gave an estimate of b-value as:

10

=

0

is the average magnitude and M0 is the threshold magnitude.

Where

To provide occurrences of Earthquake, Gutenberg and Ritcher were preferring the

simplest method use the relation between frequency-magnitude, which describes a power law

relation: Log10N = a bM, Where N is the number of earthquakes in a group having magnitude

larger than M, a is a constant and b is the slope of the log-linear relation. The estimated slope of

the log-linear relation or the coefficient b is known as b-value.

In this observation area (Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and Lampung), we can describe the

relation of frequency and magnitude to describe the occurrences of Earthquake.

Table 1. Frequency and Magnitude interval

Freq

Interval (N) Log (N)

3.0-4.7 1321 3.12

4.8-6.2 624 2.80

6.2-7.7 15 1.18

Based on table 1, we can calculate coefficient b using the least-square fit method. The

log value of the cumulative number of Earthquake (N) is plotted with Magnitude (M). The figure

of plot showed in figure 3.

B-VALUE

4.00

3.50

3.00

y = -0.9724x + 4.3089

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00

3.0-4.7 4.8-6.2 6.2-7.7

Based on the relation diagram between Frequency (N) and Magnitude (M), coefficient b

has value 0.97. If a number of b-value is almost close to 1 that is mean the area is seismic active.

So, the occurrence of Earthquake is really high, because in the west of Sumatera till south of

Java is subduction area of Eurasian Plate and Indo-Australian Plate.

The observation area (Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and Lampung) has many seismic

activities (Earthquake). That is because the area is a seismic active area with subduction zone in

West Sumatera Sea till South Java Sea. So, the potentially Earthquake disaster that can impact to

people is really high.

On an earthquake case, the damage pattern on buildings is determined by the earthquake

factor itself and the environment conditions where the building is built. The relationship between

earthquake factor and the effect it causes can be studied by the attenuation function (attenuation

relationship) where this function serves as a key component to assess earthquake hazard

(Megawati, 2010 in Irwansyah, 2013). The earthquake hazard assessment and its relationship to

the damage of building infrastructure can be performed using the acceleration value in the

ground or peak ground acceleration (PGA) (Irwansyah, 2013).

The information regarding the PGA characteristic caused by the earthquake can be

obtained from the records of earthquake events in the past. The records of ground acceleration

allow to extract the main characteristics from the ground motion recordings such as the peak

ground velocity, can be calculated as the acceleration of the ground (ground acceleration) as well

as the acceleration of earthquake on the ground surface.

The highest PGA value of observation area in 44 years (1973-2017) is 238,67 gal. IMM

value from PGA Max is 7 MMI. So, the potential hazard in observation area is really high.

Whereas the distribution of PGA value is showed in PGA Map in figure 4 below.

Figure 4. PGA Distribution Map

Based on the map, distribution of PGA value is concentrated in South Yogyakarta, East

Java, and West Nusa Tenggara. The highest interval value is in South of Bantul, Yogyakarta, South

of Malang, East Java and North of West Nusa Tenggara. So, we can assume that the area with high

potential hazard, when Earthquake happens is in the West Java and East Java. The PGA value is

related to the risk of Earthquake. So, Higher PGA value is directly proportional to the higher risk

of Earthquake.

According to plate tectonic theory, The Earth's major earthquakes occur mainly in belts

coinciding with the margins of tectonic plates. The convergent boundary in the south of Java island

where Australian Plate meets Eurasian Plate and the report obviously shows that many earthquakes

are exist along the convergent boundary of Eurasian-Australian. In conclusion, this report is highly

support tectonic plates theory.

Conclusion

The observation area (Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and Lampung) is a seismic area because

the b-value is almost close to 1. It's caused by the subduction area in a long of West Sumatera Sea

and South Java Sea. The potential hazard area is distributed in West Java and East Java, that is

caused the two areas have PGA interval higher than another area. The PGA value is related to the

risk of Earthquake. So, Higher PGA value is directly proportional to the higher risk of Earthquake.

Reference

Kayal, J.R. 2006. Earthquake Magnitude, Intensity, Energy, Power Law Relations and Source

Mechanism. Sri Lanka training program in seismology and tsunami warnings.

https://escweb.wr.usgs.gov/share/mooney/training%20courses.html.

Irwansyah, E; Winarko, E; Rasjid, Z. E; Bekti, R. D. 2013. Earthquake Hazard Zonation Using

Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) Approach. Journal of Physics. IOPScience.

Brotopuspito, Kirbani S. 2008. Percepatan Getaran Tanah Maksimum (Peak Ground

Acceleration) Akibat Gempabumi. Laboratorium Geofisika. FMIPA UGM.

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