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Double Degree MSc Programme


Graduate School Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta Phone/Fax. (0274) 564239
Website http://www.geo.ugm.ac.id, www.geoinfopasca.ugm.ac.id and



Prof. Dr. Kirbani S. Brotopuspito

Group of Java
1. Iwan Rhosadi
2. Haikal Muhammad Ihsan
3. La Ode Abdul Sadri
4. Moh. Taufiq Ismu A.

(102 120 E, 5 20 S)

Earthquake is defined as the result of a sudden release of stored energy in the Earth's
crust that creates seismic waves. At the Earth's surface, earthquakes may manifest themselves by
a shaking or displacement of the ground which can cause damage to the building that usually
causes casualties.
The probability of damaging earthquake ground motions at the site under evaluation is
called Seismic Hazard. Seismic hazard is distinct from "seismic risk" which is defined as the
potential for damages and casualties to the built environment. A region may have high seismic
hazards, but very little seismic risk if the area is sparsely populated or if buildings are well
designed to resist seismic forces. On the other hand, a highly populated area with moderate
seismic hazards may have high seismic risk if the built environment is highly vulnerable to
earthquake damages.
To determine seismic hazard degree of a certain place is usually used Peak Ground
Acceleration (PGA) Maximum value. PGA Maximum is a maximum ground movement velocity
happened in a given location measured because of earthquake occurrence in a given time and
considering magnitude, hypocenter and ground dominant period. Unlike the Richter magnitude
scale, it is not a measure of the total size of the earthquake, but rather how hard the earth shakes
in a given geographic area. PGA is usually expressed as a percentage of g (the acceleration of
gravity). At 100% g of horizontal acceleration, unbolted objects (such as a file cabinet) move
horizontally as if they were dropped from the ceiling or as if the room were turned on its side, or
furniture and contents are tossed around and there is great damage. For buildings, 100% g
horizontal acceleration adds a horizontal or lateral force equal to the building's weight. PGA
value depends on the distance between epicenter and location, depth of epicenter and magnitude.
The magnitude of an earthquake is the most commonly used parameter of earthquake
size. The statistical distribution of sizes for a group of earthquakes is complicated. (Gutenberg
and Richter, 1944 in Kayal, 2006) provided the simplest earthquake occurrence of frequency-
magnitude relation, which describes a power law relation:
Log10N = a bM
Where N is the number of earthquakes in a group having a magnitude larger than M, a is a
constant and b is the slope of the log-linear relation. The estimated slope of the log-linear
relation or the coefficient b is known as b-value.
The b-value should be estimated carefully as the self-similarity may break with the
following three stages: smaller events (M<3.0), medium events (3<M<Msaturate), and larger
events (M>Msaturate). The smaller events may give lower b-value because of a shortage of
recorded smaller events, while bigger events may give higher b-value because of the saturation
of the magnitude (Scholz, 1990 in Kayal, 2006). (Pacheco et al. ,1992 in Kayal, 2006) found that
a break in self-similarity, from small to large earthquakes, occur at a point where the dimension
of the event equals the down-dip width of the seismogenic layer.

Figure 1. Earthquake Distribution Map of Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and Lampung 1973-2017
Procedure to determine PGA max value as follows:
A. Obtaining earthquake occurrence data recorded correspondent to the observed area
(figure 1). The data can be downloaded from NEIC USGS sites on the internet. The
sites provide data such as :
- Time of occurrence ( Year, Month, Date, Time of origin)
- Geographic location
- Depth
- Magnitude
B. Sampling data, Sample data are obtained by using grid point 0.5 degrees (55.5 Km
square) interval to cover the region (figure 2) and develop 63 grid points.

Figure 2. Sampling Point or Data of Earthquake

C. Counting R value (distance from focus/hypocenter of earthquake to the observed

location) by using formula :
= (((1 2 )2 + (1 2 )2 )) + 2

x1 = x UTM coordinate of 1 point of view

x2 = x UTM coordinate of epicentre
y1 = y UTM coordinate of 1 point of view
y2 = y UTM coordinate of epicentre
d = depth of epicentre
D. Counting PGA value by using formula :

= ( + )
b1 = 472,3
b2 = 0,278
b3 = 1,301
M = Magnitude
Repi = distance of 1 point of view to epicentre
E. Plotting the PGA Max to Map, to develop PGA contour map used PGA max value in
each observed grid points and interpolate them using GIS software. We divide PGA
max value range into 20 interval scale to develop contour map.
F. Calculated b-Values
The b-values are estimated using two methods. The least-square fit method and the
maximum likelihood method. In the least-square fit method, the log values of the
cumulative number of earthquakes (N) are plotted with magnitudes (M). In the
maximum likelihood method, Aki, 1965 in Kayal, 2006, based on theoretical
considerations, gave an estimate of b-value as:

is the average magnitude and M0 is the threshold magnitude.

Result and Discussion

To provide occurrences of Earthquake, Gutenberg and Ritcher were preferring the
simplest method use the relation between frequency-magnitude, which describes a power law
relation: Log10N = a bM, Where N is the number of earthquakes in a group having magnitude
larger than M, a is a constant and b is the slope of the log-linear relation. The estimated slope of
the log-linear relation or the coefficient b is known as b-value.
In this observation area (Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and Lampung), we can describe the
relation of frequency and magnitude to describe the occurrences of Earthquake.
Table 1. Frequency and Magnitude interval
Interval (N) Log (N)
3.0-4.7 1321 3.12
4.8-6.2 624 2.80
6.2-7.7 15 1.18

Based on table 1, we can calculate coefficient b using the least-square fit method. The
log value of the cumulative number of Earthquake (N) is plotted with Magnitude (M). The figure
of plot showed in figure 3.



y = -0.9724x + 4.3089





3.0-4.7 4.8-6.2 6.2-7.7

Figure 3. Log linear relation between N and M, b = 0.97

Based on the relation diagram between Frequency (N) and Magnitude (M), coefficient b
has value 0.97. If a number of b-value is almost close to 1 that is mean the area is seismic active.
So, the occurrence of Earthquake is really high, because in the west of Sumatera till south of
Java is subduction area of Eurasian Plate and Indo-Australian Plate.
The observation area (Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and Lampung) has many seismic
activities (Earthquake). That is because the area is a seismic active area with subduction zone in
West Sumatera Sea till South Java Sea. So, the potentially Earthquake disaster that can impact to
people is really high.
On an earthquake case, the damage pattern on buildings is determined by the earthquake
factor itself and the environment conditions where the building is built. The relationship between
earthquake factor and the effect it causes can be studied by the attenuation function (attenuation
relationship) where this function serves as a key component to assess earthquake hazard
(Megawati, 2010 in Irwansyah, 2013). The earthquake hazard assessment and its relationship to
the damage of building infrastructure can be performed using the acceleration value in the
ground or peak ground acceleration (PGA) (Irwansyah, 2013).
The information regarding the PGA characteristic caused by the earthquake can be
obtained from the records of earthquake events in the past. The records of ground acceleration
allow to extract the main characteristics from the ground motion recordings such as the peak
ground velocity, can be calculated as the acceleration of the ground (ground acceleration) as well
as the acceleration of earthquake on the ground surface.
The highest PGA value of observation area in 44 years (1973-2017) is 238,67 gal. IMM
value from PGA Max is 7 MMI. So, the potential hazard in observation area is really high.
Whereas the distribution of PGA value is showed in PGA Map in figure 4 below.
Figure 4. PGA Distribution Map

Based on the map, distribution of PGA value is concentrated in South Yogyakarta, East
Java, and West Nusa Tenggara. The highest interval value is in South of Bantul, Yogyakarta, South
of Malang, East Java and North of West Nusa Tenggara. So, we can assume that the area with high
potential hazard, when Earthquake happens is in the West Java and East Java. The PGA value is
related to the risk of Earthquake. So, Higher PGA value is directly proportional to the higher risk
of Earthquake.
According to plate tectonic theory, The Earth's major earthquakes occur mainly in belts
coinciding with the margins of tectonic plates. The convergent boundary in the south of Java island
where Australian Plate meets Eurasian Plate and the report obviously shows that many earthquakes
are exist along the convergent boundary of Eurasian-Australian. In conclusion, this report is highly
support tectonic plates theory.

The observation area (Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and Lampung) is a seismic area because
the b-value is almost close to 1. It's caused by the subduction area in a long of West Sumatera Sea
and South Java Sea. The potential hazard area is distributed in West Java and East Java, that is
caused the two areas have PGA interval higher than another area. The PGA value is related to the
risk of Earthquake. So, Higher PGA value is directly proportional to the higher risk of Earthquake.

Kayal, J.R. 2006. Earthquake Magnitude, Intensity, Energy, Power Law Relations and Source
Mechanism. Sri Lanka training program in seismology and tsunami warnings.
Irwansyah, E; Winarko, E; Rasjid, Z. E; Bekti, R. D. 2013. Earthquake Hazard Zonation Using
Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) Approach. Journal of Physics. IOPScience.
Brotopuspito, Kirbani S. 2008. Percepatan Getaran Tanah Maksimum (Peak Ground
Acceleration) Akibat Gempabumi. Laboratorium Geofisika. FMIPA UGM.