ENSTU 300: Critical Thinking & Communication in Environmental Studies

Traffic Congestion in Monterey

County
Kirk Gharda, Environmental Studies Program, California State University
Monterey Bay

(Google) (Google)
Introduction

Before Henry Ford revolutionized personal

transportation with the Model T in 1908 (FMC,
2017) there were between 200,000 400,000 (Swan,
2008) automobiles in the United States, with 18,000
miles of paved road to drive on (FMC, 2017). By
2015, there were 263 million actively registered
vehicles (BTS, 2015) and 2.7 million miles of paved
road (BTS, 2015) in the United States alone. Since
1980, traffic, the number of vehicles on the road,
and congestion, when traffic is backlogged, have
both increased, with the average US commute 26.4
(Ingraham,2016)
minutes (Ingraham, 2016). Today, congestion costs Americans over $160 billion dollars a year
in wear and tear, fuel and productivity losses (Schrank, 2015).
Monterey County, is located on Californias Pacific coast, south of San Francisco. The
Model T, and its successors such as cars, trucks and buses, was invented before the majority of
Monterey County was built. Motorized transportation let people spread out further from their
places of work and commute in, negating the need to build taller structures in urban cores;
otherwise known as urban sprawl. However, so many people sprawled out that commuting
back into urban cores for work has led to spiking congestion. This impacts everyone who
depends on motorized transportation for goods, employment, and efficient transportation. To
address a diffuse problem like congestion in Monterey County, a wide variety of stakeholders
would need to align. There is no central authority that is in charge of all congestion issues and
everyone is impacted with congestions costs. Governments of all levels would need to
collaborate not only with each other, but also outside groups. Local residents, businesses and
community organizations would also need to participate and endorse plans to address congestion,
as it is governments job to serve the people they represent.
This paper will address the underlying history of how congestion developed as it did,
which places Monterey County can draw realistic solutions from, how various transportation
modes interact with congestion, what policy has done to address this issue, what the various
stakeholder groups stand for and against, what new policies can be pursued to address this issue,
and seek the answer to this question: what should be done to alleviate traffic congestion in
Monterey County?

Background
History
Ancient Rome, approximately 5 kilometers across, was initially limited in size by how far
people could commute by the dominant mode of commuting, walking (Badger, 2017). At 5 km,
a person could walk from one side of the city to the other in one hour, with the average commute
taking roughly 30 minutes (Badger, 2017). Today, while cities are much larger, the average
commute in America is still just 26.4 minutes (Ingraham, 2016). This phenomenon is known as
Marchettis constant, which theorizes that humans have a fixed travel-time budget. Marchetti

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noted that Berlin expanded only as mobility advances increased the distances people could
commute and stay within their travel-time budget (Badger, 2017). Cars, and the buildout of the
accompanying infrastructure is not a new concept, but rather the next step of how humanity gets
to work.
Being the first city to hold more than 1 million residents in 133 BC (Lennox, 2006),
Rome had less flexibility to convert land into roads.
Road penetration, and specifically highway penetration,
was impeded by when Rome got built, rather than its
total population today. Transportation priorities didnt
incorporate cars in the ancient designing process. As can
be seen on the left, not a single major highway penetrates
into the city core, let alone pass through it. The
difference in road penetration of Rome and newer cities
such as Boston and Los Angeles are made clear by
TomTom, a GPS map company. Rome only has 5,485
miles of road in its entire network, with 141 miles
dedicated to highways (TomTom, 2017). Boston, has (Google)

34,000 miles of road with 874 miles of highway

(TomTom, 2017). While the city of Los Angeles, has
42,720 miles in its road network and 1,192 miles of
highway (TomTom, 2017).

However, even Boston with similar number of

miles of road in its network compared to Los Angeles,
34,000 miles to 42,720 miles (TomTom, 2017) has a
different structural layout than Los Angeles. Boston
developed before the car was first mass produced by
Ford. The major highways mostly penetrate Bostons
core, but the highways are not uniform in a grid
structure. While Los Angeles, which mostly developed
after the car has totally major highway penetration. Depicting greater Los Angeles, there are 9 (Google)

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different federal interstates in this image. The
interstates are straighter than Boston,
highlighting that land was easy to repurpose for
highways. Road/highway capacity in this region
is much more pronounced than Boston or Rome.
There is more urban sprawl in Los Angeles
compared to Rome or Boston. And as will be
discussed next, if commuters have access to
quality, car friendly transportation, while living
in a sprawled community, it is highly likely
commuters will take the car in to work.
(Google)
Monterey County is physically connected to the Bay Area, as the southern tip, Santa
Clara County, and Monterey County share a border. Home to more than 7 million people (BAC,
2010), the Bay Area was developed at the same time in relationship to the car. Today, the
biggest change in transportation behavior in the greater Bay Area, which Monterey County is a
part of, has been caused by a sizable price appreciation in the housing market, particularly in two
sub-regions. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara includes three of the four most valuable companies
on earth: Apple, Alphabet (Google), and Facebook (Shen, 2017). It is also the 3rd wealthiest
metro area in the US with a median household income of $86,833 (PRC, 2016). San Francisco-
Oakland-Heyward is the 9th wealthiest metro region in the US, with a median household income
of $78,969 (PRC, 2016). Heavily compensated, the employees of these regions can out compete
most home buyers on price. The spiking housing costs have forced less compensated households
to live in more rural and sprawled out Bay Area counties. This overflow of wealthy Bay Area
residents has spilled over into Monterey County. Charles Pooler, Sand Citys senior planner,
said that more than half of the new homes being constructed around CSU Monterey Bay are
being bought by Silicon Valley/Bay Area workers as second homes, or assets to rent out.
Charles also said that most of the new homes being built in Monterey County are to expensive
for normal local residents to afford. While every morning there is bumper to bumper traffic from
Salinas to the Monterey/coastal part of the County, because local residents cant afford to live

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near where they work. The Bay Areas wealth and traffic congestion fallout is directly linked
with Monterey County.

(VS, 2017)

Run in collaboration by five different Bay Area government agencies (VS, 2017), Vital
Signs has compiled the commute mode choice of the 9 different Bay Area counties from 1960
2015 (VS, 2017). All nine of the Bay Area counties have had their residents take the car into
work at nearly identical rated for the last 55 years. Even though the overall population of the Bay
Area has grown from 3,638,939 (BAC, 2010) in 1960 to 7,150,739 in 2010 (BAC, 2010), the
commute mode choice of the new residents mimics the behavior of earlier residents. The
residents in the eight more sprawled
counties choose to take the car to work.
San Francisco County (its both a city
and county) is more urban, allowing
jobs to be co-located with housing;
making alternative transportation
modes more attractive. Note that even
though the population density has
roughly doubled since 1960, (2x people
with the same amount of land), the
(VS, 2017)

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percentage of commuters that take public transportation into work is lower today than it was in
1960. Bay Area commuters took more public transportation per person in 1960, before BART, a
train network, was built in 1972 (Cabanatuan, 2016). A system, that serves millions a year, that
will cost billions to repair, was built (Cabanatuan, 2016).

Although there are some structural differences between the eight sprawled out Bay Area
counties, the uniformity of their commute mode choice over more than half a century suggests
that these counties all induce the same commute behaviors of their residents. Although the
counties have different cultures and attitudes, they commute in nearly identical ways. They are
sprawled out, just like Monterey County is. They are all impacted by the wealth generated, just
like Monterey County is. They are mostly long drives away from the wealth centers of San Jose-
Sunnyvale-Santa Clara and San Francisco-Oakland-Heyward, just like Monterey County is. But
they arent quite identical. Data USA, a non-profit that exclusively uses US government data,
shows that the car is commute mode choice 70.1% of the time in Monterey County as opposed to
75% for Santa Clara County; and that Monterey County commute times are 21.5 minutes long
compared to 26.7 minutes for Santa Clara County (DU, 2017). While nearby Santa Cruz County
commutes alone in a car 69% of the time with a 24.3-minute average commute (DU, 2017).

Scientific Background
There are two broad categories of transportation modes that Monterey County could use
to alleviate congestion. The transportation modes that already are in use: cars, and commuter
rail; and the modes that can be implemented: light rail, bus rapid transit (BRT) and self-driving
technology.

After World War II, there was a strong emphasis to expand road infrastructure,
specifically highways (Al-Dubikhi, 2010). After these highways were built, commuters could
extend the range of their fixed-travel budget. It became clear, after the road expansion project,
that more capacity did not reduce traffic, but increased it; a concept called induced demand.
Induced demand happens when more road capacity is built, more traffic gets generated (Hymel,
2010). Since this time, governments across North America have changed their transportation

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policies from car based to transit first (Al-Dubikhi, 2010). Building more road capacity in
Monterey County is likely to lead to more induced demand.

The one active commuter rail line in Monterey County connects Salinas with San Jose
and Los Angeles; Amtraks Coast Starlight (Amtrak, 2017). Commuter rail operates best when
stations are 2-5 miles apart, while costing $3-25 million a mile
to build (RA, 2017). Commuter rail could be implemented in
Monterey County by using a right of way called the Monterey
Branch Line, pictured below. Purchased in part by TAMC in
2003, the Monterey Branch line right of way connects connects
(Amtrak, 2017)
Castroville to Pacific Grove (TAMC, 2015). A
commuter rail line to Monterey would also allow
for a direct train connection to San Francisco,
and San Jose. In 2017, Caltrans, Californias
state highway agency, announced a $371
million-dollar purchase of new commuter rail
cars (pictured on the right); these 49 new cars
would be used in part on the Coast Starlight rail line (Baldassari, 2017). (Baldassari, 2017)

(TAMC, 2015)

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 Light rail, with light refering to its tranit capacity rather than weight, is the technology
TAMC has proposed building on the Monterey Branch Line, which the
image above depicts. While having less total capacity than commuter rail,
this mode can start and stop more frequently, enabling train stations to be
closer together at 1-mile intervals (RA, 2017). This smaller interval
allows the small/clustered towns around the MC coast to have stations.
Nationally, the cost range per mile is between $20 to $60 million a mile
(RA, 2017), but TAMCs 2010 proposal projected the cost would be
roughtly $10 million a mile (TAMC, 2015). (TAMC, 2015)

Along the same Monterey Branch Line corridor, bus rapid transit (BRT) could also be
used. BRT is when busses have dedicated paved lanes that only buses and emergency vehicles
can access. If implemented well, BRT can have the same transportation density as light rail,
while being cheaper to operate and expand (Al-Dubikhi, 2010).
For example, a new BRT lane could only require new paint on
roads, rather than new tracks required for rail transportation.
Nationally, BRT lanes cost between $4 to 40 million a mile,
and can stop efficiently at quarter mile intervals (RA, 2017)
TAMC also projected the cost of a BRT system on the MBL
corridor, also costing $10 million a mile (TAMC, 2017).
(Hauser, 2013)
The potential efficiency
gains of self-driving technology
come from replacing human drivers
with technology. On a sliding scale
of implementation, the theoretical
benefits of self-driving technology
increase as more human drivers get
(Tientrakool, 2011)
replaced and the self-driving vehicles integrate with one another. One paper, coming from the
University of Columbias Electrical Engineering Department, theorizes that self-driving
technology can boost highway capacity by 273% (Tientrakool, 2011). The model, which

8
compared 100% human drivers, standalone self-driving cars and communicating self-driving cars
all going 62 mph, found that humans needed to be 100 feet away from each car to be safe while
communicating self-driving cars could 15 feet apart with more efficiency gains at higher speeds
(Tientrakool, 2011).

Policy Context
Traffic congestion is a decentralized problem. No one is directly responsible for it, and
there are no direct policies promoting it. The single biggest commute mode, single commute
cars, are built by the private sector. However, there are policies that have had disproportionate
impacts on Monterey County congestion.
In the 1950s and 1960s, many of the private rail companies in the United States were
spiraling into bankruptcy (Molitoris, 1998). One of the main reasons was the decline of
passenger rail ridership; with consumers choosing cars and planes as more preferred methods of
travel (Molitoris, 1998). However, these private companies could not shut down their passenger
lines, because the federal government forced them to keep running (Molitoris, 1998). By 1970,
the industry as a whole was in financial distress and nearly all of the rail systems serving the
Northeast and Midwest were in Bankruptcy or on the verge of filing for protection under
bankruptcy laws (Molitoris, 1998). In response, congress passed and President Nixon signed
the Rail Passenger Act of 1970 (RPSA) (Molitoris, 1998). RPSA allowed any railroad company
transfer its entire passenger rail service responsibility to the newly created Amtrak corporation
(Molitoris, 1998). Southern Pacific, the railroad company that operated the Del Monte Express
train that connected Pacific Grove to San Francisco, exercised this option (Rice, 2008). As
Amtrak did not absorb the Del Monte Express into their system, the last day this train service
operated was May 30th, 1971; the day before Amtrak began operations nationally (Rice, 2008).
Enacted into law as Californias expansion of the National Environmental Policy Act
(NEPA), the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), was signed into law in 1971 by
California Governor Ronald Reagan (CNRA, 2017). CEQA is a statue that requires state and
local agencies to identify the significant environmental impacts of their actions and to avoid or
mitigate those impacts, if feasible (CNRA, 2017). Applying to any state or local public agency,
most proposals for physical development in California are subject to the provisions of CEQA,

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including developments within any state and local agencies jurisdiction (CNRA, 2017). In a 3-
year study of all CEQA lawsuits, an international law firm Holland & Knight in 2015 found that
80% of all CEQA lawsuits target infill projects in established communities rather than
greenfield project on undeveloped or agricultural lands outside established communities (HK,
2015). Used as a tool to make infill development harder, restricts the private sector from
building additional housing stock near employment centers.
Zoning, as defined by the city of Marina: zoning ordinances divide a city into separate
residential, commercial and industrial districts, thereby preserving the desirable characteristics of
each type of setting and it controls population density In addition, zoning helps assure
property owners and residents that the characteristics of nearby areas will remain stable (CM,
2017). As zoning restricts concentrated infill development, the market cant respond adequately
to meet the demand for additional housing.
Stakeholder Perspectives
Monterey Countys congestion is influenced by forces outside of the county.
International corporations, state and federal governments, and other large forces have large
impacts on congestion in Monterey County. However, these broader stakeholders appear
sparingly for local city council meetings. The most influential stakeholders for addressing
congestion in Monterey County are those that are rooted locally, have relationships within the
community and personally experience this congestion on a daily basis.
Stakeholder Impact Stakeholder values How can the What are the
group for congestion stakeholder contribute concerns of the
to the project? stakeholder?
Local Residents Variable Want car congestion Vote. Taxes. When Change in the
reduced. Somewhat organized, can dictate town(s) character.
willing to pay more $ what local policy is Consistent
for changes. favored. congestion relief.
Local City Large Want transportation Collaboration of many Project costs.
Councils, County efficiency. parties. Can modify Reelection if change
of Monterey zoning laws. is overly radical.
County Large Transportation Can study, plan and Political feasibility
Transportation efficiency. build various of new public
Agencies transportation modes. transportation.
Local Businesses, Medium Congestion impacts Taxes. Can shape Land loss (farmers).
Business on profit. policy to be compatible Project costs.
Associations with local prosperity. Financial efficiency.

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 CSUMB Variable Student Offset Mitigation. If Impacts on CSUMB
transportation students organize, can
efficiency. influence policy.

Local residents, the people who live in Monterey County, are the most influential
stakeholders. They vote for every politician in the county, and pay for most of the taxes. Years
of planning from one agency or another can be stopped immediately by a large appearance of
local residents. Being made up of the entire community though, local residents rarely speak with
one voice. Generally, residents like the character or makeup of the town they live in and want to
keep it the same. Interpreting the positions of local residents usually falls to their elected
representatives.
City councils (and the county government) are elected by local residents. In addition to
serving their residents, city councils also interact with: other levels of government, local
businesses, community organizations and interest groups. These local agencies broadly want to
work within the voters will to address issues like traffic congestion. From subsidizing public bus
routes to experimenting with the physical layout of their jurisdictions, this group has modest
flexibility. But large-scale reformation of zoning codes to allow for taller buildings in
downtowns and transportation corridors is unpopular with local residents; so, this group
generally keeps the layout structure intact. Even Sand City, with a more aggressive development
posture than neighboring cities, is flexible with smaller changes like setbacks, but strict on
density according to Sand Citys City Planner Charles Pooler.
Monterey County has two different transportation agencies. Monterey-Salinas Transit
(MST) and the Transit Authority of Monterrey County (TAMC). In my email conversation with
Virginia Murillo of TAMC, she said the agency preferred building a light rail, but is now focused
on a BRT system because it is cheaper to build, and can be converted to a light rail in the future.
Local businesses from mom and pop shops to Safeway to farmers, rely on road
infrastructure. Each rely on the transportation of goods, customer foot traffic and employee
commute times; congestion is related to their success. Within local government politics,
businesses act as a moderating force.
Complicating their relationship as a congestion stakeholder CSU Monterey Bay
(CSUMB) was successfully sued in 2006 (Brenneman, 2006). Before the ruling of City of

11
Marina V. Board of Trustees, CSUMB and any other CSU was under no obligation to help pay
for the impact of their campuss growth outside of their property. For example, before the ruling,
CSUMB could quadruple in student body size and not be obligated pay for expanded roads to
facilitate the new impact. After this ruling, CSUMB now has the obligation to pay for some of
these impacts. The administrations position, according to Mathew McCluney a CSUMB Senior
Campus Planner, is to use the public funds allocated to it for the students, as much as possible.
They would be interested in the use of MBL right of way, but only if it helped the students. If
local governments tried to get CSUMB to help pay for a Highway 1 interchange improvement
project, they would oppose it.
Discussion
How to go about alleviating traffic congestion in Monterey County has been to describe
let alone answer. But there are three broad solutions that can seriously address congestion: build
superior public transportation, reform laws that restrict dense urban infill and enabling the
development of self-driving technology.
Monterey County does not have the funding or density of residents to justify building a
light rail over BRT; while both modes along the Monterey Branch Line cant integrate directly
with the broader commuter rail network. With TAMC projecting light rail and BRT as the
roughly the same cost to build (TAMC, 2017), BRT doesnt have its usual national average price
advantage (RA, 2017). I would guess that a commuter rail line would also cost roughly the
same, and even though that would mean fewer stops in Monterey County, the broader network
advantages for commuter rail is superior to the other two public transportation modes. Not to
mention that the state government has already reinvested in this transportation mode with $371
million (Baldassari, 2017).
Infill reform can happen at the local level, but the track record for change is very weak.
In my time driving around the coastal part of the county, I have seen dilapidated store fronts,
vacant warehouses and run-down homes. Knowing that private developers would love to rebuild
any plot of land they can, the only conclusion I can come to is that Monterey County residents
like it this way. Instead, I think pursing infill reform at the state level would be more effective.
In 2017, the California state government passed modest but significant laws to override local law

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zoning laws for urban infill. Pursuing change at this level would also help address housing costs
and transportation proximity for the entire Greater Bay Area.
Lastly, enabling the development of that technology is probably the most impactful
alternative for congestion. Each of these three options will be evaluated by their ability to
replace single car commutes, how effective they can be at reducing congestion, what
governments would have to pay to implement them, their impact on the environment and how
feasible it would be to implement them.
Criteria: + = Benefit Commuter Rail State Level Infill Reform Self-Driving
- = Cost Technology
Replacing single car +++ ++++ ---
commute
Reducing Congestion ++ +++++ +++++++++++++++++
Cost to Government --- ------ -
Environmental ++ +++++ -------------
Impact
Feasibility ++++ ++ Next Decade: +++
Beyond: Almost Certain

Commuter rail has many macro benefits. It can move more people as light rail while
being implemented roughly the same cost (AS, 2017). It is a lot less carbon intensive per
passenger than car commuting. However, with Monterey County spread out infrastructure,
Commuter Rail is unlikely to ever move as many people as its theoretical capacity; begging the
question if Monterey County should build it at all.
Infill reform has the potential to utilize millions of dollars of private capital to radically
reshape downtowns around Monterey County. The state government is moving in a direction to
implement significant changes, helping these denser urban cores cut back on long distance
congestion. Although urban infill has some direct environmental costs with new construction,
these emissions are more than offset by the lower birth rate of urban residents and generally more
efficient usage of resources. But the magnitude of change that would be needed to realize these
macro benefits is in all likelihood more difficult than state politicians can handle, as local
residents who like the current state of their towns will fight to keep it this way.
Self-Driving technology can boost road capacity by upwards of 273%. It would make car
congestion a much rarer occurrence. It would be cheaper for the commuters to use than the

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current car ownership total costs, while also being inexpensive for the government to comply
with. It would be significantly safer to commute with per mile, and the time while commuting is
at the freed-up drivers discretion. But this technology would also increase the absolute range of
the Marchetti constant, enabling another boom of urban sprawl. And until such time as electric
cars replace their gas guzzling counterparts, self-driving technology would significantly increase
the number of miles driven by gas cars.

Recommendation
In addressing congestion in Monterey County, there are no magic bullets. If the perfect
tool existed for congestion existed, it would have already been used. Infill reform for example
has strong potential. In the deindustrialized economy America is shifting into makes urban
centers more attractive, more infill would nicely compliment this macro trend. It can be
expected that reforms would lead to an overall decrease in the average commute while reducing
each persons carbon footprint. Commuter rail revitalization would let many Monterey County
residents to bypass daily car congestion. It would also let local residents to commute directly to
San Francisco and Silicon Valley on one ticket.
Although self-drivings time horizon is unlikely to meet any short term needs for traffic
congestion, it is the only alternative that has the capacity to significantly change the current
gridlock of traffic congestion in Monterey County. However, self-driving technology is beyond
the scope of the stakeholders I identified. It is a national issue, not a local one. It is bigger than
Monterey County. Therefore, my final recommendation is to do nothing, and hope that self-
driving technology will be realized.

Conclusion
Traffic congestion is not a new problem, or a cheap problem to fix. From the day Henry
Ford rolled out the Model T, congestion has impacted different regions of the world in specific,
unique ways. Rome still doesnt have a lot of modern roads, while Los Angeles was built with
them. The Bay Area still drives the same way 55 years after 1960, a region known for its
innovation and forward thinking. Monterey County holds itself as distinct from the Bay Area,
but largely commutes the same way. There are laws like the Rail Passenger Service Act, CEQA,

14
and Zoning that contribute to congestion, but not intentionally. Congestion is here, it is growing.
The traditional tools of infill reform and better public transportation have been tried and tried.
Monterey County needs a new tool. A tool that can use the infrastructure it already has. It needs
self-driving technology.

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