Você está na página 1de 18

JANUARY 2018

Time for
balance and
flexibility.
Global economies continue to gain ground
Among the first to experience recovery, U.S. edges toward late-cycle territory

There is mounting evidence Most major economies are experiencing early- to mid-cycle characteristics
that near-term momentum is
Euro Zone
building in the global economy Germany
Canada
and the cycle appears to be
self-sustaining, particularly
Japan U.S.
with respect to Europe. The
China
synchronization of global growth
has raised the possibility that the U.K.
cycle can be stronger for longer. GDP (US$T)
20
robert lind 10
europe economist India
5
Brazil

EARLY MID LATE


Economic activity accelerates Full employment Prot margins contract
Housing activity increases Wages accelerate Credit moderates
Easier central bank policy Prot margins peak Tighter central bank policy

sources :Capital Group, FactSet. GDP Investors can see blue skies just about relatively tame. That said, with wages Overall, the IMF expects global gross
data as of 6/30/17. Country position anywhere they look heading into 2018, rising, look for inflation to pick up later domestic product (GDP) to increase
within the business cycle are estimates as the synchronized global economic in the year. 3.7% in 2018, up from 3.6% in 2017, with
by Capital Group economists.
recovery gathers a head of steam. After each of the worlds major economies
For most of the rest of the world, it is
eight years of expansion in the U.S., firmly in the growth column.
still early in the cycle. Europe appears
investors may be concerned that the
to have entered a prolonged period of
American economy is nearing the end
strength and the euro-zone economy
of the cycle. But dont cue the closing
is expected to grow nearly 2% in 2018,
credits yet. Corporate profit growth
according to the International Monetary
remains healthy and inflation has been
Fund (IMF).

1 OUTLOOK 2018
Market levels suggest better opportunities abroad
Valuations point to relatively attractive opportunities outside the U.S.

I am concerned that people Percentages of total world market capitalization and global GDP
are getting very complacent,
expecting this low-growth, MARKET
low-volatility environment to CAPITALIZATION 52.1% U.S. market cap near all-time high

last. In my view the tail risks


are increasing the longer it
continues. So I am getting GROSS
35.2% DOMESTIC
more cautious, focusing on PRODUCT
unloved investment ideas: 25.3%
anti-momentum stocks 21.5% 21.4%
with good cash flows and
compelling valuations. 11.6%
3.5% 2.1% 7.6% 6.4%
lisa thompson
12-Month Forward
portfolio manager P/E Ratios U.S. CANADA EUROPE JAPAN EMERGING MARKETS
9/30/17 17.9 15.4 14.9 14.3 12.4
10-Year Average 14.4 14.0 12.3 14.8 11.0

sources : Capital Group, FactSet, MSCI, Most of the worlds equity market In fact, market levels suggest that these Standard & Poors 500 Composite Index
RIMES, Thomson Reuters. As of 9/30/17. indices achieved or neared multiyear better investment opportunities may company earnings come from overseas.
Market capitalization is each country highs in 2017, as investors set aside continue in non-U.S. markets. Consider
or regions weight within MSCI All Also consider that the forward P/E ratio
Country World Index (ACWI). GDP is
concerns about politics and focused on that the U.S. accounts for 52% of global
for the U.S. market, at 17.9, is nota-
each country or regions percentage the broadening expansion. European market capitalization, near a historic
bly higher than other major markets.
of total world nominal GDP. Price- stocks went on a tear in 2017, rising 23% high, and its market cap is 106% of its
to-earnings ratios as of 9/30/17.
Conversely, the emerging markets share
and outpacing U.S. shares for the first GDP. Granted, a number of factors justify
of global market cap appears relatively
time since 2012. Emerging markets equi- a relatively higher share of market cap
modest compared with its contribution
ties also outpaced the U.S., soaring 32%. for U.S. companies, as it is the home
to GDP. And, emerging economies are
(Results in U.S. dollars.) market for many of the worlds domi-
expected to contribute half of global
nant companies, and roughly 40% of
GDP by 2021.

OUTLOOK 2018 2
U.S. economic engine reaches higher gear
Consumer strength, modest inflation point to an extended expansion

The U.S. economy seems to The American economy is drawing from numerous sources of strength
be chugging along nicely,
and I dont see much on the
58.7
LATEST DATA
horizon to be concerned LAST YEAR
about other than higher
equity valuations. We have 261K 52.0
had market appreciation for
nearly a decade now, so I
4.4%
think it will increasingly be a
stock-pickers market.
3.1%
hilda applbaum
portfolio manager , capital group
global balanced fund SM ( canada )
2.3% 2.2% 124K
1.5% 1.5%
GDP INFLATION RETAIL SALES JOBS ADDED MANUFACTURING
GROWTH GROWTH ACTIVITY (PMI)

sources : U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, After more than 100 months of market and strengthening economy, wage
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Thomson expansion, the U.S. economy appears inflation is likely to rise later in the year. With consumer spending healthy
Reuters. GDP growth is the year-over- to be in a period of self-sustaining and wages rising, consumer-facing
year growth in 3Q16 and 3Q17. Inflation Consumer spending on durable goods businesses have the potential to
and retail sales growth are year-over-
equilibrium. The jobs market is solid,
rose at an 8.3% annual rate in the third do well in the next phase of the
year changes on 9/30/17, and 9/30/16. consumer confidence is soaring and
quarter, and capital expenditures rose economic expansion. Companies
Inflation uses the change in the consumer retail sales growth is picking up. The
price index. Jobs added is the monthly
7.4%, providing an additional tailwind across a wide variety of industries
U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.1%
change in the payroll survey as of to the economy. In addition, corporate are exposed to rising consumption,
in October, a 17-year low. As a result,
10/31/17, and 10/31/16. Manufacturing profits rose 5.8% in the third quarter. On including home improvement
activity is the manufacturing component
wages have been strengthening, rising
the policy front, the prospect of corpo- retailers such as The Home Depot,
of the 9/30/17, and 9/30/16, Institute of 2.4% in October. Thus far, wage growth
rate and personal income tax cuts could online retailer Amazon and shopping
Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing has been subdued, helping keep a lid on
Managers Index (PMI) reports.
propel the expansion further. mall developer Simon Properties,
inflation. But given the improving jobs
which could benefit from higher traffic
at traditional retailers.

3 OUTLOOK 2018
But U.S. assets have gotten expensive
Research is critical to uncover value in soaring equity market

In my view the U.S. is priced U.S. stock and bond markets have But a look beneath market averages reveals differentiation
for perfection, so I am taking a reached all-time highs
Consumer
more cautious approach, gravi- 400% Cumulative Total Returns Since Recession Trough 200% Cumulative Total Returns Since Pre-Recession Peak Discretionary
tating to areas that I believe (Returns in U.S. dollars) (Returns in U.S. dollars) Information
Technology
can hold up better in choppier All-time high
300 Current
markets, like select financial
companies. Financials have 100 S&P 500 Index
substantially increased their 200
capital base, they have been
conservative in their lending
100 PRE-RECESSION
and the interest rate cycle is PEAK
Financials
0 Energy
favourable to them.
0
greg johnson
Large-Cap Small-Cap Corporate High-Yield
portfolio manager Equity Equity Bonds Bonds
12-Month Forward P/E Ratios Spread to Treasuries
9/30/17 17.9 27.0 101 347 (100)
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
10-Year 14.4 21.2 188 611
Average

sources : Bloomberg Index Services Ltd., The U.S. stock market has soared since boats forever. At this stage of the cycle,
MSCI, RIMES, Standard & Poors, Thomson the end of the global financial crisis, caution and selectivity are essential. The potential for credit growth driven
Reuters as of 9/30/17. Large-cap and small- reaching its prior peak in 2012 and by solid consumer fundamentals,
cap equity valuations provided by IBES, Indeed, not all areas of the market have and the prospect of rising interest
for the S&P 500 Index and Russell 2000
more than doubling since, pushing up
reached elevated heights together. rates, could help drive profit growth
Index, respectively. Investment-grade and equity valuations. But stocks arent the
Financials recently reached its pre- for banks. U.S. regional bank PNC
high-yield corporate bond valuations are only expensive asset class. High-yield
option-adjusted spread to U.S. Treasuries
recession peak after 10 years and energy Financial Services and conglomerates
and corporate bond returns too have
provided by Bloomberg Index Services has returned to 2007 levels. These JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo
been robust, leaving credit spreads at
Ltd. for the Bloomberg Barclays Corporate sectors may have room to run, but select are examples of companies that have
Bond Index and Bloomberg Barclays High
their tightest levels in years. Conditions
companies are likely to fare better than strong credit card and commercial
Yield Corporate Index, respectively. remain favourable and markets tend to
others. Fundamental research will be key banking divisions.
climb a wall of worry, so the rally could
to identifying the potential winners.
continue. But the rising tide cant lift all

OUTLOOK 2018 4
Europe and its factories are back in business
Resurgent Europe leads a global manufacturing recovery as demand picks up

Among developed econo- 31 of 32 countries tracked are in expansion territory


mies, Europe looks like the
best place to invest right Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
now. We are seeing a broad- 62
Europe
based recovery across the
Germany
continent, particularly in 60
countries that have engaged
in fiscal reform over the past 58
few years.
The Americas France
56 United Kingdom
mark denning Asia-Pacic
portfolio manager Canada
54
United States Japan
52
India China
EXPANSION
50
CONTRACTION

sources :Capital Group, Haver as of Europe has enjoyed a remarkable lined up in support of the European
9/30/17. The Purchasing Managers Index recovery in recent months, driven by a Unions governing authority. Thanks to improving global growth,
is an indication of whether business powerful combination of central bank select European companies are
conditions for a number of variables Europes manufacturing activity thriving particularly those that
in the manufacturing sector have
stimulus, ultra-low interest rates and
previously a weak point on the regions operate on a global stage. Dutch
improved, deteriorated or stayed the improving growth. Third-quarter GDP in
path to recovery has increased semiconductor equipment-maker
same compared to the previous month. the 19-member euro zone grew at an an-
An index reading above 50 indicates
dramatically, supported by rising orders ASML, for instance, has continued
nualized rate of 2.5%, and the unemploy-
an expansion, whereas a reading below for everything from new aircraft to highly to exceed earnings expectations,
ment rate has fallen to 8.9%, its lowest
50 indicates a contraction. The PMI sophisticated technology components. benefiting from soaring demand
tracks 32 countries. Each dot in the
level since 2009. Moreover, corporate
Many euro-zone factories have reported for computer chips used in mobile
chart represents one of the 31 tracked earnings are up across the board, led by
labour shortages amid the surging devices. The so-called internet of
countries with a PMI over 50. The only a strong rebound in the energy, mining
tracked country not included is South
demand. Factory activity has expanded things investment theme is alive and
and banking sectors, thanks in part to
Africa, which had a PMI of 44.9. in all major European nations, led by well in Europe, powered in part by
the strengthening global economy.
manufacturing powerhouse Germany Dutch technological innovation.
The political picture has also stabilized,
and the neighbouring Netherlands.
as continental Europe has essentially
5 OUTLOOK 2018
Weaker U.S. dollar could boost international equities
Longer term, look for extended strength in non-U.S. currencies to further fuel overseas returns

While we may see short- A weaker U.S. dollar helped boost non-U.S. returns in 2017
term periods of U.S. dollar
strength now and then, my 150 J.P. Morgan U.S. Dollar Real Trade Weighted Index
YTD Total Returns Through 10/31/17
view is that the U.S. dollar
Local Currency USD
will continue its downward 140 Europe 14.0% 23.4%
trajectory over the course Emerging Markets 28.3% 32.3%
of 2018 and into 2019, 130
providing a further boost to
international investing. 120

jens sondergaard
currencies analyst 110

100

90

1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 10/31/17

sources :RIMES, Thomson Reuters Currency trends have formed a nice higher in September and October.
as of 10/31/17. tailwind for U.S. dollar-based investors Capital Group currencies analyst In the financials and industrials
in international equities. After the U.S. Jens Sondergaard believes this U.S. sectors, a valuation gap has emerged
dollar peaked in early 2017, the currency dollar strength will fade, and continue its between some European and U.S.
effect on overseas investments reversed decline through 2018 and into 2019. companies. Airbus and Barclays,
from previous years, when a strong U.S. for example, have recently traded
Whats the impact for Canadian dollar- at significant valuation discounts to
dollar hurt returns. With the U.S. dollar
based investors? As the Canadian dollar comparable companies in the United
slipping in 2017, European equities have
strengthened in the latter half of 2017, States. The gap has started to close
far outpaced U.S. stocks in U.S. dollar
it hampered international equity returns in other sectors as European equities
terms. The U.S. dollar also has declined
in Canadian dollar terms. However, have rallied, but these two sectors
against many other currencies, including
over longer periods of time, currency remain areas of potential opportunity
the yen, producing a similar tailwind for
fluctuations generally have had less of for value-oriented investors.
Japanese equities.
an impact, and holding assets in various
Improving U.S. economic growth and currencies can provide diversification.
other factors pushed the U.S. dollar
OUTLOOK 2018 6
Emerging markets have only just begun making up ground
Rising middle classes, more stable China suggest developing world has room to run

The stability and reform we are Until recently, emerging markets equities had trailed developed markets for several years
seeing in places like China and
India are resulting in greater 200% Emerging Markets vs. Developed Markets: Rolling 3-Year Returns
investment opportunities. Its
not just obvious areas like Indian 150
banks and Chinese internet
companies, but I am also
100
interested in domestic industries Emerging markets
like cement and power, as well as HIGHER
50 returns than developed markets
retail companies and consumer-
orientated businesses.
0
chris thomsen
Emerging markets
portfolio manager
50 LOWER
returns than developed markets

100
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Returns in U.S. dollars

sources :
Capital Group, MSCI, RIMES. The rally in emerging markets equities Amid the ongoing rebound, overall
Data represents cumulative rolling is more than 20 months old, with stocks valuations are still attractive from An improving global economy
three-year total returns of MSCI up 70% since a trough in early 2016. Is a historical basis and compared to and U.S. dollar weakness can be
Emerging Markets Index versus the tailwinds for companies in a broad
MSCI World Index through 9/30/17.
the rebound getting long in the tooth? It developed markets. For instance, China,
really could just be getting started. Taiwan and Brazil all trade around 13 range of industries, from information
times projected earnings over the next technology to consumer goods to
An expanding global economy, financials and commodities exporters.
year, compared with 17 times estimated
strengthening currencies and robust For example, Chinese internet
earnings for the MSCI World Index.
demand for technology-related giants Tencent and Alibaba could
Company cash flows are also increasing,
components all bode well for emerging benefit from rapid growth in mobile
which could lead to higher earnings
markets. A synchronized global recovery commerce and financial services.
revisions. Corporate profits are forecast to
is an ideal environment for emerging Banks with solid consumer lending
climb 13% in 2018, and historically rising
markets, similar to the period that lasted businesses may benefit from stronger
profits have been good for share prices.
from 2003 to 2007. global growth.

7 OUTLOOK 2018
Signs of maturity emerge in China and emerging markets
As the market has shifted from commodities to tech, volatility has declined

In todays emerging markets, An increasing number of world-class technology companies are domiciled in emerging markets
there are some very strong
technology companies that 50% WEIGHT 25.5%
deliver e-commerce services in
45
a very efficient fashion and the
40 25.0
adoption rate is high. Chinese
internet businesses are now 35 TECHNOLOGY
leading innovation in financial 30
(Left axis)
24.5
services and other areas, a STANDARD
25
divergence from the past. DEVIATION
(Right axis)
20 24.0
shaw wagener
portfolio manager , capital group 15 COMMODITIES
emerging markets total opportunities SM (Left axis)
fund ( canada ) 10 23.5

0 23.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

sources :
Morningstar, MSCI, RIMES as of Emerging markets have shifted from internet penetration rates are rising.
9/30/17. Commodities includes energy smokestacks to smartphones. Back in Along with middle class growth, these Look for growth in the technology
and materials sectors. Technology 2008, energy and materials companies developments are changing consump- sector to be driven further by de-
includes information technology sector. mand for handheld electronic devices
dominated the MSCI Emerging Markets tion patterns and delivery methods for
Index with a 38% weighting, and many financial services. and mobile-focused services among
of these firms were state-owned enter- the large populace of China and
This tech-tonic shift over the past India. Some Asian companies, includ-
prises that were more susceptible to
decade (information technology now ing Taiwan Semiconductor and
infrastructure-driven booms and busts.
accounts for 28% of index weight) has Samsung Electronics, have also devel-
Chinese technology-related firms are also come with a decrease in volatility as oped specialized knowledge in areas
now the biggest companies by market cyclical, commodity-oriented companies of semiconductors and are key cogs
value in emerging markets as mobile are no longer index heavyweights. in the global technology supply chain.
phone usage is accelerating and

OUTLOOK 2018 8
Global rates should stay low despite improving economies
Higher relative yields should continue to support demand for U.S. bonds

Long-term U.S. interest U.S. interest rates remain higher than those of other developed markets
rates should remain range
bound unless you get a 3.5 10-Year Government Bond Yields
geopolitical event in places UNITED
3.0
KINGDOM
like North Korea or inflation
breaks out unexpectedly. UNITED STATES
2.5

pramod atluri
2.0
portfolio manager
CANADA
1.5

1.0 GERMANY
0.5
JAPAN
0

-0.5
12/2011 12/2012 12/2013 12/2014 12/2015 12/2016 10/2017

source : Thomson Reuters as of 10/31/17. A number of factors have kept yields low, other developed markets, partly because
such as modest economic growth in the the U.S. economy has sustained a sig- Consider holding broadly diversi-
U.S., persistently low inflation and strong nificantly higher growth rate. The higher fied fixed income portfolios without
demand from global investors for U.S. yields in the U.S. relative to other devel- tilting too heavily in favour of credit
bonds. Long-term rates could rise mod- oped markets should continue to support or interest rate exposure. Although at
estly as U.S. economic growth remains demand for U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, tight valuations, credit and mortgage-
robust and the U.S. Federal Reserve has against the backdrop of low interest rates backed securities provide a yield
started to trim its balance sheet, which in developed economies, demand for spread over U.S. Treasuries that can
means it will no longer be the largest buy- higher yielding emerging markets debt add to meaningful additional income
er of bonds. Capital Groups fixed income has risen substantially. The fixed income over time. On the other hand, U.S.
team expects the benchmark U.S. 10-Year team expects this demand to continue. Treasuries provide valuable diver-
Treasury yield to remain in a 2.25% to 3% Many emerging markets economies are sification from equities and credit.
range despite a higher policy-driven rate. growing at a steady clip and do not have Meanwhile, emerging markets bonds
any significant economic imbalances. continue to offer value, supported by
Despite these relatively low levels, U.S. improving fundamentals.
interest rates remain higher than many
9 OUTLOOK 2018
Central banks take gradual approach to tapering
Financial conditions should not tighten dramatically

The U.S. Fed started reducing After expanding balance sheets for years, the U.S. Fed has begun reducing its holdings
the size of its balance sheet in
October and I would expect 18 Central bank assets (USD trillions)
Projection
U.S. financial conditions to
16
tighten as a result. With global
central bank balance sheets set 14
to decline in late 2019, for me ECB
12
it is a question of when markets
will start to get concerned. 10

ritchie tuazon 8
BOJ
portfolio manager
6

4 BOE

2 U.S. Fed
0
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

sources :Capital Group, Thomson Reuters Since the financial crisis, central banks the global economy improves, some of
as of 9/30/17. European Central Bank have expanded their balance sheets them are beginning to move in the other As financial conditions tighten, credit
(ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), Bank of to unprecedented levels. These banks direction. The U.S. Fed began shrinking assets and mortgage-backed secu-
England (BOE), U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). rities remain vulnerable. Investors
became the largest buyers of bonds its balance sheet in October. The Euro-
and other securities as a way of increas- pean Central Bank signaled it will begin should maintain a balance between
ing money supply to boost struggling to trim its purchases of securities starting interest rate and credit exposure.
economies. The four major central banks in January. With the Fed stepping away Within credit, consider moving up in
increased securities held on their books from its role as the largest buyer of secu- credit quality so that portfolios can
from around US$4 trillion in 2007 to rities, the risk of a modest rise in yields withstand a period of potential
about US$15 trillion in 2017. Now, as cannot be ruled out. market volatility.

OUTLOOK 2018 10
U.S. Fed rate hikes dont have to translate to bond losses
In periods of rising rates, higher income can help to keep returns positive

With inflation running below Core bond returns have been positive in five of the last seven prior periods of U.S. Fed hikes
the U.S. Feds target and the
economy growing at a modest 10
pace, I think the Fed will take a 10.18
8
gradualist approach to raising
7.76
rates. 6
6.06 5.90
4 Average return: +3.73%
john queen
portfolio manager 2
2.02
0
2.04
2 2.89
4/1/837/31/84 1/1/879/30/87 4/1/885/31/89 2/4/942/1/95 6/30/995/16/00 6/30/046/29/06 12/16/159/30/17

+3.00% +1.44% +3.31% +3.00% +1.75% +4.25% +1.00%

Increase in the U.S. federal funds rate


Returns in U.S. dollars

sources : Bloomberg Index Services As the U.S. Fed continues on a path of If rate hikes are gradual, interest earned
Ltd., U.S. Federal Reserve. Data through gradually raising interest rates, many by bonds can overcome the price impact Investment-grade and high-yield
9/30/17. Daily results for the index are investors are moving to cash, short-term to deliver a positive return. Indeed, since credit valuations continue to hover
not available prior to 1994. For those near historically tight levels not
earlier periods, returns were calculated
bonds and floating-rate securities. But the U.S. Fed began on its current course
the view that bonds have to suffer of rate hikes, the index has gained nearly seen since the period before the
from the beginning of the month
containing the first hike through the end losses when short-term rates rise is a 6%, even as the U.S. Fed funds target has 2007 financial crisis. In this market
of the month containing the final hike. misconception. Looking at the past risen by 100 basis points. The Fed has environment of range-bound long-
seven periods of interest rate hikes, signaled that it will maintain a gradual term rates and tight credit spreads,
including the current period, invest- pace in raising rates and tightening investors should consider holding
ment-grade (BBB/Baa and above) monetary policy. Against this backdrop, well-diversified core fixed income
bonds have generally delivered positive interest rates will likely remain range portfolios that do not take excessive
returns, as can be seen from results for bound. credit risk. Credit-heavy strategies
the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate have performed well as stocks have
Index. soared, but they could suffer losses
should stock markets reverse.

11 OUTLOOK 2018
Position core bond portfolios for higher volatility
Global growth is improving, but markets may underestimate uncertainties and possible shocks

What is PSG? Caution is warranted, given current macroeconomic and market conditions
Capital Groups fixed income
team convenes a Portfolio
U.S. Rates Curve U.S. TIPS
Strategy Group (PSG) that
meets regularly for an in-
depth discussion on the
macroeconomic environment
and fixed income markets. SHORT LONG FLAT STEEP SHORT LONG

This fixed income groups latest


insights are reflected in the
dials shown, which represent Credit MBS Non-U.S. Bond Non-U.S. FX
guidance to our portfolio
managers when building our
core fixed income portfolios.

UNDER OVER UNDER OVER UNDER OVER UNDER OVER

Duration: Capitals Portfolio Strategy Yield Curve: Although the U.S. Fed is Credit: High credit valuations suggest
Group (PSG) continues to believe in a tightening monetary policy, the bias caution, given stable to declining
lower for longer thesis regarding the of central banks remains supportive of fundamentals. Although Capitals PSG
future level of interest rates. Modest economic growth. In this environment, does not expect a material rise in
global growth and inflation, as well as the fixed income group thinks the yield defaults for high-yield corporations,
the attractiveness of U.S. interest rates curve could steepen and long-term minimal allocations are appropriate to
in a global context, are a few factors interest rates may rise somewhat more high-yield in core bond portfolios.
contributing to this view. However, than intermediate rates.
Mortgages: The fixed income group
current consensus expectations for the
Inflation: In light of the fixed income continues to recommend a less-
path of short-term interest rates are
groups view that inflation will continue to than-index weighting in agency
more conservative than the PSG view.
rise modestly, particularly in the U.S., the mortgage-backed securities on
group suggests considering an allocation expectations of future spread widening
to U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Secu- as the U.S. Feds balance sheet reduction
rities (TIPS). Further, TIPS valuations are ramps up.
attractive relative to prospective inflation.
OUTLOOK 2018 12
Put these insights to work in portfolios
Flexible mandates can improve returns

Skillful investors could potentially Flexibility helps: Both growth and value can lift returns
benefit by combining looser
Percentage of top-returning U.S. large-cap equities by style (value or growth)
constraints on the investment
100% Share of the
universe with a disciplined focus top 50% of
on investment objectives. 80
equities
(by returns)
that were
sunder ramkumar
Growth stocks
capital group client analytics 60

40 Value stocks

20

0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Index Return (%)
Growth 33.15 30.65 0.19 3.43 5.68 12.34 41.87 44.37 12.91 1.56 17.98 32.46 14.38 7.71 1.79
Value 15.05 26.26 14.05 7.05 25.78 0.43 36.11 11.38 14.69 2.23 12.89 28.92 9.24 1.43 18.91
Returns in U.S. dollars

source : Capital Group, based on Flexible mandates can allow investment categories were combined and ranked favouring value or growth. Value on
Morningstar data, as of 12/31/16. Indices professionals to access their best ideas, by total return, and the top 50% of stocks average outpaced growth by 18%
are Morningstar U.S. Large Growth helping skillful portfolio managers in that list were apportioned to growth in 2002, yet almost half the best-
Total Return Index and Morningstar
U.S. Large Value Total Return Index.
deliver better results. and value based on their Morningstar performing stocks were growth.
Universe drawn from stocks that were classifications. The data illustrate two Similarly, in 2009, growth outpaced
Several institutions, including Harvard
classified as large-cap growth and large- key insights: value by 33 percentage points, yet value
cap value by Morningstar (excluding
Universitys endowment, have
stocks made up almost one-third of the
blend). Stocks from both categories were transitioned to broader investment First, while there are good companies in
best-performing companies.
combined and ranked by total return, mandates, based on the concern that both value and growth styles every year,
and the top 50% of stocks in that list were style-based portfolios over-emphasize their proportion can vary significantly.
apportioned to growth and value based asset-class benchmarks at the expense Value companies made up 54% of the
on their Morningstar classifications.
An investor who simply invests in
of investor outcomes. best performers in 2002, but only 19% the winning style every year and
in 2013. ignores all the stocks in the losing
As an example of the potential benefits
of flexibility, the chart above shows the Second, the stock selection opportunity style can miss great opportunities.
universe of all U.S. large-cap value and was not just driven by macro regimes
13 OUTLOOK 2018 growth stocks. Companies from both
2018 Outlook: Time for balance and flexibility
Themes Big Picture North American Equity Global/International Equity Emerging Markets Fixed Income
Market levels call for balance The U.S. economy is strong, There is room to run in markets The developing world has Its time to de-risk core bond
and flexibility. but markets are relatively outside the U.S. room to run. portfolios.
expensive.

Key The global expansion is Consumer optimism and After outpacing U.S. equity After broad gains in 2017, Fixed income assets are relatively
takeaways gaining momentum as rising wages have provided markets in 2017, European and an expanding global expensive across sectors, reflecting
the U.S. forges ahead and a further boost to a strength- emerging markets continue economy, strengthening expectations that financial condi-
conditions improve in ening U.S. economy. U.S. to offer relatively attractive currencies and robust tions will remain supportive. Even
Europe. Low rates and mild equity valuations are near valuations in select areas. demand for technology- as they tighten monetary policy, the
inflation across the globe multiyear highs across a Improving economic conditions, related components all bias of central banks remains sup-
further contribute to a benign number of asset classes. But a weaker U.S. dollar and rising bode well for emerging portive of economic growth. With
economic environment. But a deeper look beyond market profit growth all contribute to markets. inflation muted and growth rates
with volatility at multiyear lows, averages reveals opportunity an encouraging outlook for modest, we expect the U.S. Fed will
complacency has spread. for selective investors. investing in non-U.S. markets. take a gradualist approach.
Investment At this stage of the cycle, Maintain a core allocation of Seek meaningful exposure to Consider a broadly Ensure your bond portfolio is broadly
implications make sure portfolios are well- U.S. equities but be selective Europes improving health and diversified portfolio of diversified and does not have exces-
diversified, with the flexibility and consider rebalancing rising consumer purchasing emerging markets equities, sive high-yield exposure. Invest selec-
to pivot to select areas of toward international and power in emerging markets. plus fixed income to tively in credit. Dont be afraid to have
opportunity. emerging market equities. dampen volatility. some duration. Consider small alloca-
tions to emerging markets bonds.
Select Capital Group Global Equity Capital Group Canadian Capital Group Global Equity Capital Group Emerging Capital Group Canadian Core Plus
investments FundSM (Canada) Focused Equity FundSM FundSM (Canada) Markets Total Fixed Income FundSM (Canada)
to consider A CIF 843; E CIF 873 (Canada) A CIF 843; E CIF 873 OpportunitiesSM Fund A CIF 841; E CIF 871
F CIF 823 A CIF 849; E CIF 879 F CIF 823 (Canada) F CIF 821
F CIF 829 A CIF 842; E CIF 872
Capital Group Global Capital Group International Capital Group World Bond
F CIF 822
Balanced FundSM (Canada) Capital Group U.S. Equity Equity FundSM (Canada) FundSM (Canada)
A CIF 840; E CIF 870 FundSM (Canada) A CIF 846; E CIF 876 A CIF 140; E CIF 170; F CIF 120;
F CIF 820 A CIF 847; E CIF 877 F CIF 826 AH CIF 8240; EH CIF 8270;
F CIF 827 FH CIF 8220
Capital Group Global
Balanced FundSM (Canada)
A CIF 840; E CIF 870
F CIF 820

MSCI has not approved, reviewed or produced this report, makes no express or implied warranties or representations and is not liable whatsoever for any data in the report. You may not redistribute the MSCI
data or use it as a basis for other indices or investment products.
The S&P 500 is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use by Capital Group. Copyright 2017 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, and/or its
affiliates. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.
2017 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; (3) does not constitute
investment advice offered by Morningstar; and (4) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from
this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Bloomberg is a trademark of Bloomberg Finance L.P. (collectively with its affiliates, Bloomberg). Barclays is a trademark of Barclays Bank Plc (collectively with its affiliates, Barclays), used under licence.
Neither Bloomberg nor Barclays approves or endorses this material, guarantees the accuracy or completeness of any information herein and, to the maximum extent allowed by law, neither shall have any
liability or responsibility for injury or damages arising in connection therewith.
FundSERV codes shown are for Series A, E, F, AH, EH and FH units. FundSERV codes for Series B, D, T4 and F4 units can be found on our website: capitalgroup.com/ca.
OUTLOOK 2018 14
Investment Professional Biographies

Hilda L. Applbaum is a portfolio manager at Capital Group and a portfolio Robert Lind is an economist at Capital Group. He has 29 years of industry
manager of Capital Group Global Balanced FundSM (Canada). She has experience and joined Capital Group in 2016. Prior to joining Capital,
30 years of investment experience and has been with Capital Group for Robert worked as group chief economist at Anglo American. Before that,
22 years. Earlier in her career, as an equity investment analyst at Capital, he was head of macro research at ABN AMRO. He holds a bachelors
Hilda covered global convertible securities. Before joining Capital, she was degree in philosophy, politics and economics from Oxford University.
a principal investment officer and director of research for the California Public Employees Robert is based in London.
Retirement System, and a research analyst and economist at Federal Farm Credit Banks
Funding Corp. in New York. Hilda holds a masters degree in economics from New York John R. Queen is a fixed income portfolio manager at Capital Group.
University and a bachelors degree in economics from Barnard College of Columbia He serves on the Capital Group Private Client Services Management
University graduating magna cum laude. She also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst Committee. He has 27 years of investment experience and has been with
designation. Hilda is based in San Francisco. Capital Group for 15 years. Earlier in his career at Capital, John was a trader
and dealer service representative. Prior to joining Capital, he was chief
Pramod Atluri is a fixed income portfolio manager at Capital Group. He has operating officer and chief compliance officer overseeing bond portfolios at Roxbury
18 years of investment industry experience and has been with Capital Group Capital Management, an affiliate of Wilmington Trust. Before that, he was managing
for one year. Prior to joining Capital, Pramod was a fixed income portfolio director at Hotchkis and Wiley. John holds a bachelors degree in industrial management
manager at Fidelity Investments where he also worked as a fixed income from Purdue University and attended the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, where
strategist and corporate bond analyst. Before that he was a management he majored in mechanical engineering. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst
consultant at McKinsey & Company. He holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and designation. John is based in Los Angeles.
a bachelors degree in biological chemistry from the University of Chicago where he also
completed the requirements for bachelors degrees in economics and chemistry. He holds Sunder Ramkumar is a senior manager, client analytics at Capital Group.
the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. Pramod is based in Los Angeles. He has 13 years of investment industry experience and has been with
Capital Group for two years. Prior to joining Capital, Sunder was a
Mark E. Denning is an equity portfolio manager at Capital Group. managing director and portfolio manager on the Multi-Asset Portfolio
He has 34 years of investment experience, all with Capital Group. Strategies team at BlackRock. Sunders research on asset allocation and
Earlier in his career at Capital, Mark had equity investment analyst optimal investment strategies has been published in several financial journals including,
responsibilities for companies based in Southeast Asia. He holds an MBA The Financial Analysts Journal, The Journal of Portfolio Management and The Journal of
in finance and international business from Columbia Business School and a Fixed Income. He holds a masters degree in management science and engineering from
bachelors degree in economics from the London School of Economics. Mark is based in Stanford University and a bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from Mangalore
Los Angeles. University, India. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. Sunder is
based in Los Angeles.
Gregory D. Johnson is an equity portfolio manager at Capital Group.
He has 23 years of investment experience, all with Capital Group. Earlier Jens Sndergaard is a currency analyst at Capital Group. He has 11 years
in his career, as an equity investment analyst at Capital, he covered U.S. of investment industry experience and has been with Capital Group for four
merchandising, retail, restaurant and footwear companies. He holds an MBA years. Earlier in his career at Capital, he worked as an economist covering
from Columbia Business School and a bachelors degree in political science the Euro area and the UK. Prior to joining Capital, he was a senior European
from the University of California, Los Angeles. Greg is based in Los Angeles. economist at Nomura, a senior economist at the Bank of England and an
assistant professor at The Johns Hopkins University. He holds a PhD in economics and a
masters degree in foreign service from Georgetown University. Jens is based in London.

15 OUTLOOK 2018
Lisa Thompson is an equity portfolio manager at Capital Group. She has
28 years of investment experience and has been with Capital Group for
22 years. Earlier in her career, as an equity investment analyst at Capital,
Lisa covered companies in Latin America, emerging Europe, West Asia
and Africa. Before joining Capital, Lisa was a securities analyst at Goldman,
Sachs & Co. She was also a securities analyst and quantitative analyst at the Nomura
Research Institute in New York. She holds a bachelors degree in mathematics from the
University of Pennsylvania and the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. Lisa is based
in New York.

Christopher Thomsen is an equity portfolio manager at Capital Group. He


has 19 years of investment experience, all with Capital Group. Earlier in his
career at Capital, as an equity investment analyst, he covered European and
Asian media companies, Hong Kong-based utilities, property companies,
conglomerates, and small-cap companies along with generalist coverage
of other companies domiciled in Hong Kong and the Philippines. Prior to joining Capital,
Chris worked as a corporate finance analyst for Citibank NA. He holds an MBA from
Columbia Business School and a bachelors degree in international economics from the
School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Chris is based in London.

Ritchie Tuazon is a fixed income portfolio manager at Capital Group. He


has 16 years of investment experience and has been with Capital Group
for six years. Earlier in his career at Capital, as a fixed income investment
analyst, he had analytical responsibilities for U.S. Treasuries and TIPS. Prior
to joining Capital, Ritchie was a trader at Goldman Sachs with experience
trading TIPS, Treasuries and interest rate swaps. He holds an MBA from MIT Sloan School
of Management, a masters degree in public administration from Harvards Kennedy
School of Government and a bachelors degree from the University of California,
Berkeley. Ritchie is based in Los Angeles.

Shaw B. Wagener is a portfolio manager at Capital Group and a portfolio


manager of Capital Group Emerging Markets Total OpportunitiesSM Fund
(Canada). He is chairman of Capital Group International, Inc. He has
35 years of investment experience, all with Capital Group. Earlier in his
career, Shaw was an equity trader at Capital and then head of equity
trading. He holds a bachelors degree in international relations from Claremont
McKenna College graduating cum laude. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst
designation. Shaw is based in Los Angeles.

Years of experience as of December 31, 2016.

OUTLOOK 2018 16
The Capital Advantage
Since 1931, Capital Group has been singularly focused on delivering superior, consistent results for long-term investors using
high-conviction portfolios, rigorous research and individual accountability.

Aligned With Investor Success The Capital SystemSM Built to Last

We base our decisions on a long-term perspective, Our investment process, The Capital System, is As a private firm with an independent charter and
which we believe aligns our goals with the interests designed to enable individual investment robust balance sheet, we invest in improving our
of our clients. Achieving superior, long-term returns is professionals to act on their highest convictions, capabilities through good markets and bad.
our only goal, so managers are rewarded for their while limiting the risk associated with isolated We have some of the most experienced investment
results, not the level of assets they manage. decision-making. Portfolios using The Capital System professionals, a deep bench and a commitment to
Collectively, Capital Group associates are significant are divided into portions that are managed sustaining our investment process over generations.
investors in the companys investment offerings. independently by investment professionals with
diverse backgrounds, ages and investment
approaches. A disciplined, multi-layered governance
structure oversees the systems operation.

Lit. No. EN-00236-EL 12/2017 2017 The Capital Group Companies, Inc.
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before
investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.
References to particular companies or securities are included for informational or illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as an endorsement by Capital Group. Views expressed regarding
a particular company, security, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any investment funds, investment advice nor as a recommendation to buy or sell.
The statements expressed herein are informed opinions, speak only to the stated period, and are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions. Additionally, in The Capital System,
differences of opinion are common, and the opinions expressed by an individual do not necessarily reflect the views of other investment professionals.
Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual events and results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made herein.
We encourage you to consider these and other factors carefully before making any investment decisions and we urge you to avoid placing undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
Statements attributed to an individual represent the opinions of that individual as of the date published and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Capital Group or its affiliates. This information is
intended to highlight issues and not to be comprehensive or to provide advice.
Unless otherwise indicated, the investment professionals featured do not manage Capital Groups Canadian mutual funds.
For informational purposes only; not intended to provide tax, legal or financial advice. We assume no liability for any inaccurate, delayed or incomplete information, nor for any actions taken in reliance
thereon. The information contained herein has been supplied without verification and may be subject to change. Capital Group funds are available in Canada through registered dealers. For your individual
situation, please consult your financial and tax advisors.
Capital Group funds and Capital International Asset Management (Canada), Inc. are part of Capital Group, a global investment management firm originating in Los Angeles, California in 1931. The
Capital Group companies manage equity assets through three investment groups. These groups make investment and proxy voting decisions independently. Fixed income investment professionals provide
fixed income research and investment management across the Capital organization; however, for securities with equity characteristics, they act solely on behalf of one of the three equity investment groups.

Você também pode gostar