November 28, 2017

To: Interested Parties

From: Ben Tulchin, Ben Krompak, Kiel Brunner, and David Kornahrens; Tulchin Research
Re: Survey Finds Navy Veteran Gil Cisneros Statistically Tied in Match-Up with
Congressman Ed Royce

A new Tulchin Research poll of likely November 2018 voters in Californias 39th Congressional
District finds Republican Congressman Ed Royce faces a difficult path to re-election and a
formidable Democratic challenge in former U.S. Naval officer and education philanthropist Gil
Cisneros. Royce currently leads Cisneros in a head-to-head match-up by just 4 points within
the surveys margin of error and Cisneros takes the lead once voters hear more information
about the candidates. The poll finds a challenging environment for Royce in this historically
Republican-leaning district that was carried by Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, as voters
choose a Democrat over a Republican in the generic Congressional ballot by a comfortable
margin and majorities hold unfavorable opinions of both Donald Trump and Republicans in
Congress.

With Democrats Favored in the Generic Ballot, Cisneros is Currently Statistically Tied
with Royce and Takes the Lead in the Informed Vote

The poll finds Ed Royce in a very challenging position for an incumbent. Asked generically
whether they would be more likely to support a Democratic or Republican member of Congress,
voters in this Orange County-based district choose a Democrat by an 8-point margin (45% to
37%). In a hypothetical match-up with first-time candidate Gil Cisneros, Royce fails to attract
majority support, leading by just 4 points (48% to 44%) within the surveys margin of error.
Cisneros, a former Lieutenant Commander in the U.S. Navy who launched a Hispanic education
foundation after winning the California Lottery in 2010, takes the lead (50% to 46% for Royce)
following a simulated campaign in which respondents heard more information about both
candidates.

Californias 39th Congressional District

Generic House Vote: Initial Candidate Vote: Revote After Positives:
Democrat vs. Republican Cisneros vs. Royce Cisneros vs. Royce

Democrat 45% 44% 50%

Republican 37% 48% 46%
Undecided 18% 8% 4%
Democrat - Republican +8 -4 +4

Trump, Paul Ryan, and Republicans in Congress Viewed Very Unfavorably

The poll finds a chilly political climate for Royce heading into 2018 as Donald Trump, House
Speaker Paul Ryan, and Congressional Republicans all prove deeply unpopular with voters in
this district. While voters have split opinions of Democrats in Congress (46% favorable to 47%
unfavorable), Republicans in Congress are viewed unfavorably by a 25-point margin (34%

220 Sansome Street, Suite 1360 San Francisco, CA 94104 (415) 576-1072
Tulchin Research Poll Results 2

favorable to 59% unfavorable) and majorities of voters hold negative views of Trump (41%
favorable to 56% unfavorable) and Ryan (36% favorable to 51% unfavorable).

Trump and Congressional Republicans Prove Deeply Unpopular

Nov 12-19, 2017
Total Favorable 41%

Donald Trump Total Unfavorable 56%

Net Favorable
-15
(Favorable - Unfavorable)
Total Favorable 36%

Paul Ryan Total Unfavorable 51%

Net Favorable
-15
(Favorable - Unfavorable)
Total Favorable 34%

Republicans in Congress Total Unfavorable 59%

Net Favorable
-25
(Favorable - Unfavorable)
Total Favorable 46%

Democrats in Congress Total Unfavorable 47%

Net Favorable
-1
(Favorable - Unfavorable)

Conclusion

Our poll finds Ed Royce in a close and competitive race with Gil Cisneros and facing a difficult
political environment for an incumbent Republican member of Congress. Royce is already
polling beneath 50 percent and in a statistical dead-heat in a race against Cisneros a first-time
candidate who takes the lead in the polls simulated campaign once voters learn more about
him. Given these findings, Cisneros stands an excellent chance of defeating Royce and being
elected to Congress.

Survey Methodology: From November 12-19, 2017, Tulchin Research conducted a telephone
survey among 500 likely November 2018 voters in the Californias 39th Congressional District
using live professional interviewers surveying respondents in both English and Spanish and
calling both landlines and cell phones. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.4 percentage
points.