Escolar Documentos
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capabilities
CCSBAMD conference
Hamburg,
September 2017
CDC
Netherlands Defence Academy
Dr. Ralph Savelsberg
DPRK has different families of ballistic missiles
Solid-propellant
o Pukguksong-1 (SLBM)
o Pukguksong-2
Photo: EPA Photo: KCNA
2 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Taepodong-2 ICBM/ Unha Satellite Launch Vehicle
Limitations as ICBM
2nd stage Scud engine lacks power
large missile would require silo-basing
Photo: Reuters
3 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
DPRK has shown supposedly road-mobile ICBMs during
parades
KN-08 KN-14
4 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
This year: Hwasong-12 and 14 missile launches
date Missile Distance Apogee Flight time Hwasong-14
type covered [km] [km] [min]
May 14th Hwasong-12 787 2011 30
5 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Is Hwasong-14, as flown, a threat to CONUS/
NATO?
6 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-10 demonstrated more advanced propulsion
Photo: KCNA
7 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-12 and Hwasong-10 compared
Hwasong-10 Hwasong-12
Original image: KCNA Original image: Reuters Original image: Rodong Sinmun
10 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Simulated missile should be able to fly reported lofted
trajectory
12 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-12 and 14 engine configurations are
identical
Hwasong-12 Hwasong-14
13 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Confirmation 1.5 m diameter for Hwasong-14
Original image: AP
Estimated missile length of 18 m
15 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-14 is
essentially Hwasong-12
with 2nd stage
Original images:
Reuters/ KCTV
16 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Other analyses
find larger
missile
Photos show
inconsistent aspect
ratios: missile
appears wider
Our size
measurements do
not rely on the
aspect ratio
Original images:
KCTV/ KCNA
17 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Uncertainty in 2nd
stage parameters
Unha SLV 3rd stage uses R-27 verniers, but it is much larger
Reported burn time and estimated internal volume inconsistent
with R-27 vernier thrusters
Use reported burn time with reduced thrust (baseline)
Use R-27 verniers with shorter burn (R-27 verniers)
18 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Resulting missile Stage 1 Take-off mass 22,859 kg
parameters Shroud mass 250 kg
Fuel UDMH
Oxidizer N2O4
Isp (vacuum) 305 s
Useable
2,025 kg
propellant mass
Stage dead-
Stage 2 20 %
weight fraction
stage take-off
2,531 kg
mass
R-27
variant baseline
verniers
Burn time 233 s 169 s
thrust 26 kN 36 kN
Take-off mass
Total 25,640 kg
(excl. payload)
Original image: KCTV
19 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
July 4th and 28th
lofted trajectories
Lofted trajectories
can be flown with
reduced payloads
20 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Simulated HS-14 lofted trajectories
DPRK
Alaska Canada
1000 kg CONUS
750 kg 500 kg
R-27 thrusters
500 kg
Hawaii
22 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-14 towards Europe
Russian
Federation
DPRK
Europe
1000 kg
750 kg
500 kg
PRC
500 kg
R-27 thrusters
23 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Conclusions
Based on available evidence, consistent models of
Hwasong-12 and 14 were derived
Reported flight parameters were replicated in the
simulations
Lofted trajectories flown with reduced payloads
Hwasong-12 poses a threat to Guam
Hwasong-14 does not pose a threat to CONUS or NATO
Missiles show some advances:
o Application of UDMH and N2O4
o Light-weight structure
o More powerful engine than Hwasong-10
24 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Missile trajectories are
simulated using 3-DOF
model
Numerical integration of equations
of motion
Point-mass model with drag, thrust
and gravity
Spherical earth
Standard atmosphere
Optional correction for changing
back-pressure
Steering by changing angle
between thrust and vertical in time
Optional correction for Earth
rotation
25 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
August 29th
Hwasong-12
flight
Marco Langbroek,
SatTrackCam Leiden (b)log, September 1, 2017
https://sattrackcam.blogspot.nl/2017/09/the-other-subliminal-
message-in-kim.html
26 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
August 29th trajectory consistent with
premature burnout
Intended trajectory to
3300 km with 700 kg
payload
27 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
September 15th Japan overflight
28 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-12 towards Pacific Ocean
Russia Alaska
PRC
DPRK
Japan
1000 kg
500 kg
Guam Hawaii
750 kg
29 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Hwasong-14 range vs. payload
launch table
detached
Stepped
from
concrete
transporter
platform
Separate
pedestal
attached to
platform Original image: KCNA
32 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
July 4th launch was from prepared site
Launch table
transported on
Fuelling ports? vehicle
Location such
that fuelling can
only be done
with missile in
vertical position
Stepped concrete
Separate platform
pedestal
already in place
on platform Original image: KCNA
33 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
First four launches Hwasong-12, May 14th
34 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
WS51200 1.6 m tire size compared to DPRK
leaders
Photo shown at Pyongyang concert to celebrate 2nd
Hwasong-14 launch
35 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Other analyses find different sizes
Length 17.85 m, diameter 1.75 m
John Schilling,
What is true and not true about the Hwasong-14,
38 North, July 10, 2017
Length 19.5 m, diameter 1.85 m
Theodore Postol, Michael Schiller & Robert Schmucker,
North Koreas not quite ICBM cant hit the lower 48
states,
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, August 11, 2017
36 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Older DPRK missiles use Soviet engines
indigenous engine?
37 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities 13 oktober 2017
Towards a DPRK ICBM?
38 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities
Militarized Unha with Hwasong-12 2nd stage would
threaten CONUS
Alaska
Hwasong-14
750 kg
Unha/Scud 750 kg Canada
Unha/Hwasong-12
1000 kg Unha/Hwasong-12
750 kg
Hawaii
CONUS
39 CDC
DPRK missile capabilities