PAKISTAN-US RELATIONS

Pakistan-US relationship is a transactional relationship where in return for US

economic and military assistance Pakistan undertakes to carry out certain
mutually agreed tasks. The relationship is marked by a serious trust deficit
which lends an unpredictable character to the relationship. One Pakistani
perspective describes the US as a mother in law, in other words very difficult to
please.

Profile of US

Profile of Pak-US relations: Political, Economic, Commercial, Security,

Education.

In the historical perspective Pakistan’s relations with the United States have
been described as a transactional relationship shaped by Real-politik.

Others in Pakistan have described the US as a fickle friend.

Others claim that the US has invariably let Pakistan down.

Circumstances in the 50s:

Pakistan in search of military and economic aid to counter Indian threat.

US in search of geo-strategically important countries in pursuit of its

containment policy.

PACTS

In the 50s US (containment of communism) and Pakistan’s (security concerns

regarding India) strategic interests led to a series of economic and military
agreements and pacts such as SEATO and CENTO which enhanced Pakistan’s
power.

Developments leading to the Pacts

Pakistan’s difficult economic and security situation at the time of independence.

Pakistan‘s initial moves and lack of positive US response: Quaid e Azam’s

envoy and PM Liaquat Ali Khan’s visit. US interest focused on the security and
reconstruction of post war Europe, lest it fall under the influence of the Soviet
Union.

Nevertheless, a US invitation was sent to Nehru and subsequently to Liaquat Ali

Khan when the US realized the Soviet Union had extended an invitation to
Pakistan.

Victory of communists in China and the Korean War led to concerns in the US
that eventually South Asia could fall prey to communism. The advent of the
Republican administration in 1952 meant greater emphasis on global security by
the projection of American power.

India was the first one to be courted by the US to become a part of the US
policy of containment. When India refused because it feared that the presence of
big powers in South Asia would challenge its own regional aspirations, Pakistan
was invited to join the alliances.

The Alliance Decade.

A Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement with the US was signed in 1954.

Pakistan joined SEATO and the Baghdad Pact (later known as CENTO) in 1954
and 1955 respectively. In 1959 Pakistan signed the Bilateral Agreement of
Cooperation with the United States. It also provided US a military base in
Badaber near Peshawar. As a result of these alliances Pakistan received nearly
$2 billion in U.S. assistance.

Alliances: Pros and Cons.

Pros:

a. Pakistan able to counter Indian threat.

b. Pakistan became militarily and economically strong.

c. Pakistan received Western political and diplomatic support.

Cons:

a. India called off bilateral talks on Kashmir

b. Soviet Union became an inveterate enemy of Pakistan

c. Pro-Soviet/Non-aligned Arab states like Egypt, Syria and Iraq were

concerned about Pakistan’s total alignment with the West.
d. Pakistan armed forces became very powerful and undermined democratic and
constitutional development in the country.

e. Pakistan became heavily reliant on the US and the West.

Circumstances in the 60s

The 60s brought change in the regional and global security landscape and a
divergence of interests between Pakistan and the US.

Globally, détente between US and the Soviet Union reduced the importance of
Pakistan; Regionally, India-China War of 1962 inclined the US towards India;
Advancement in missile technology reduced need for bases; Coming to power
of the Democratic Party in the US led to greater emphasis on political and
economic engagement abroad rather than Pacts where it was felt that the
security interests of the member states were not well aligned as was the case
with NATO.

Pakistan’s response to these challenges:

a. Shift towards China

b. Unsuccessful ministerial level talks with India on Kashmir Dec ’62 to May
’63.

c. Operation Gibraltar, Pakistan-India War 1965, Tashkent Accord and the Fall-
out on Pakistan and Pakistan-US relations.

Pakistan-US ties 1965-1971: Pakistan facing US arms embargo and reduced

economic assistance; Secessionist movement in East Pakistan; Henry
Kissinger’s visit to Pakistan; Pakistan-India War 1971; US role in the war.

President Nixon was pro-Pakistan, but Congress and media un-sympathetic and
the relationship of the 50s could not be revived in the 70s.

Circumstances in the 70s

South Asia not a priority area for the US

Pakistan embarks on a nuclear weapons program

Mr. Bhutto’s government is leftist and strongly pro-China.

The 1971 debacle led to the following conclusions:

a. Pakistan’s conventional forces were no match for India’s forces because of
their overwhelming numerical superiority

b. No ally, no matter how close, could guarantee the territorial integrity of

Pakistan

c. The UN too could not prevent the disintegration of the country by another
state.

d. A nuclear weapons capability could provide the ultimate security.

Bhutto and the US. Attempts to revive ties and the nuclear program

Reprocessing Plant deal with France; 1976 meeting with Kissinger; Offer of US
military assistance in case nuclear program given up; sanctions under the
Symington and Glenn amendments.

Carter and ‘Regional influentials’ worked to the detriment of Pakistan.

Overthrow of the Shah of Iran in February 1979; Soviet invasion of Afghanistan

27 December 1979; Convergence of US and Pakistan’s strategic interests in
Afghanistan

Pakistan on the eve of the invasion was isolated. Military dictator,

Constitutional government overthrown and the PM executed, retracted on the
promise to hold elections and continued nuclear weapons program

US Security and Economic Assistance to Pakistan and CIA’s covert war;

Pakistan’s nuclear program. Thus there existed simultaneously convergence
(Afghanistan) and divergence (Nuclear Program).

Circumstances in the 90s:

- Collapse of the Soviet Union

- Islamic movements being perceived as the new emerging threat

- OBL sets up abode in Afghanistan

- Huntington’s theory of clash of civilizations gaining acceptance

Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan led to the US withdrawal and the

abandonment and sanctioning of Pakistan for its nuclear program; Pakistan
nearly came to be declared as state sponsor of terrorism for its role in IHK;
further sanctions were imposed when Pakistan conducted nuclear tests in May
1998 and then democracy related sanctions in October 1999.

Circumstances in the new millennium:

- Defined by the War on Terror

- Roller-coaster relationship

9/11 to date.

9/11 at the instigation of AQ and a UNSC resolution adopted under Chapter VII
of the UN Charter had given US the right to act in self-defense. AQ in
Afghanistan-Fatwa against US; attack on the USS ‘Cole”; attack on US
embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. International public and governmental
opinion stood alongside the US.

9/11 placed the Pakistani leadership on the horns of a dilemma. Opposition to

the US strategy/demands was likely to:

a. Risk Pakistan’s nuclear assets

b. Place Pakistan alongside pariah states North Korea, Iraq and Iran

c. Subject Pakistan to further debilitating sanctions seriously undermining its

economy

d. Dub Pakistan as state sponsor of terrorism

e. Dub the Kashmir struggle as a terrorist movement

f. Give India a big edge over Pakistan

g. De-stabilize the existing military regime

h. Pakistan would be accused of being selective regarding UN resolutions

If Pakistan went alongwith the US and the UNSC resolution it would have to:

a. Dump the Taliban

b. Withdraw support from Kashmiri militants

c. Deploy its armed forces in FATA against the Taliban and AQ

d. Accept US demands
In the process sanctions would be lifted, it would be in the global mainstream
and in receipt of military and economic assistance

Before receipt of US demands Pakistan decided that:

a. it would go along with international mainstream opinion

b. it would not oppose the attack on Afghanistan

c. it would agree with the demands in principle but would gradually modulate
its position in accordance with its interests

The policy worked initially. Sanctions lifted; Portion of debt written off;
Substantial economic and military assistance; High-level visits; Prestige
enhanced; Indian strategy and propaganda blunted; Kerry-Lugar-Berman Act-
October 2009; Unforeseen huge benefit-Pakistan saved from sanctions A Q
Khan network.

Pakistan-US Strategic Dialogue- Sectoral dialogue process includes economy

and trade, energy, defense, security, law enforcement and counter-terrorism,
science and technology, education, agriculture, water, health, communications
and public diplomacy. Pakistan was also keen to discuss strategic stability and
non-proliferation with the goal of having an India type nuclear cooperation
agreement.

But with the passage of time the backlash from the US presence in Afghanistan
and that of the Pakistan army in FATA became very severe.

The Pushtun Taliban which the US dislodged from Kabul had support among
the Pushtuns of FATA on ethnic considerations. Even AQ had support in FATA
from the days of fighting the Soviet army. Since Pakistan had agreed to interdict
the insurgents at its border with Afghanistan, for the first time in its history, it
sent its army into the tribal areas, where it has come into conflict with those
opposed to the US presence in Afghanistan. These included Pakistanis, Afghans
and AQ elements. This operation has had a tremendous backlash.

In the initial stages up till 2004 the relationship went off smoothly. But then
cracks appeared. The Taliban revived and became a force in Afghanistan;
militant organizations proliferated with many directing their anger at the
Pakistani state; others targeted US and Afghan forces from Pakistani soil; the
US wanted Pakistan to curb this, but Pakistan was constrained by limited
capability and strategy; it is believed that at present there are 52 different
militant organizations in Pakistan; Human and material costs for Pakistan in the
War on Terror.

Causes of Taliban revival:

a. US did not induct sufficient forces to completely rout the Taliban. They
outsourced this task to the Northern Alliance which did a wishy-washy job.

b. Pakistan did not interdict the Taliban when they were escaping into Pakistan.

c. Both the US and the Karzai government in Afghanistan rebuffed the Taliban
when they desired reconciliation

d. Believing that it had achieved its objective in Afghanistan, US turned its

attention to Iraq where it launched a full-fledged invasion in March 2003. Even
though it continued to claim that it could conduct two wars simultaneously, its
effort and attention was focused on Iraq.

e. Elections in 2002 in Pakistan led to religious parties governments in KPK and

Balochistan

Developments post US invasion of Afghanistan

a. AQ was degraded but managed to establish itself in Yemen, Iraq, North

Africa and Mali.

b. Anti-Pakistani militancy in FATA began to grow

c. Nexus established among AQ, TTP, SSP, LeT, JeM

d. US attack on Iraq, its insensitivity to Muslim concerns such as Palestine,

reports about tortures in Abu Ghuraib, Guantanamo and Bagram, stories about
desecration of the Quran and Muslim holy places, led to widespread anti-
Americanism in the Muslim world including Pakistan where the US’ strategic
relations with India, in particular the Indo-US nuclear deal of 2005 further
contributed to the prevalent anti-Americanism; PEW poll.

e.2011 was a particularly bad year for Pak US ties; Raymond Davis affair;
Killing of OBL; US attack on Salala check post; Drones; Faisal Shahzad; Trust
deficit; Anti-Americanism; Banning of the Haqqani network.

f. Hilary Clinton’s apology and resumption of NATO supplies-July 2012.

g. Operation Zarb e Azb to the present.

Afghanistan and US withdrawal in 2014

US interests in the region post 2014

a. Afghanistan does not revert back to the pre-9/11 situation as the center of
religious extremism and radicalism

b. Pakistan does not allow its territory to be used to launch attacks on Afghan
forces

c. Pakistan does not promote and use jihadi organizations to realize its foreign
policy goals

d. Pakistan’s nuclear assets are safe and secure and it adheres to non-
proliferation

e. Reconciliation between Pakistan and India

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