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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools
available from ValuEngine. In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information.
The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing.
As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are now offering a FREE
DOWNLOAD of one of our $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Reports.
This week's free download is our report on MICRON TECH (MU). MICRON TECH
together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and marketing of
semiconductor devices worldwide. Its products include dynamic random access
memory (DRAM) products that provide data storage and retrieval, which include
DDR, DDR2, DDR3, and other specialty DRAM memory products, such as SDRAM,
mobile DRAM, pseudo-static RAM, and reduced latency DRAM. The company also
offers NAND flash memory products, which are electrically re-writeable and non-
volatile semiconductor devices that retain content when power is turned off. Micron
is the only US-based manufacturer of DRAM.
MICRON TECH scores extremely well on both short and long-term forecast
calculations, is significantly undervalued, and may represent a bargain for investors
looking to pick up some beat down companies in the Technology Sector. Micron is
trading below both its 50 day and 200 day moving averages. However, analysts have
lowered expectations for the company recently due to an expected slow down in
demand for computers that use Micron's memory products.
ValuEngine has issued a STRONG BUY recommendation for MICRON TECH.
Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that
MICRON TECH has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for
the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE market valuation, P/E ratio and
company size.
The VE Detailed Valuation Report features advanced academic research that
brings you superior investment strategies in an actionable format. The most
comprehensive and useful report available.
Weekly Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on MU HERE.
If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed
Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Index started week Thursday Close 4 day change 4 day change % ytd
DJIA 10145.58 10320.1 174.52 1.72% -1.06%
NASDAQ 2145.76 2200.01 54.25 2.53% -4.11%
RUSSELL 2000 614.27 632.26 17.99 2.93% 0.66%
S&P 500 1062.9 1090.1 27.2 2.56% -2.37%
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12- P/E Ratio
MReturn
Basic Industries 0.91% 1.01% 16.89% 6.15% undervalued 39.59% 24.2
Capital Goods 0.85% 0.95% 8.28% 12.62% undervalued 13.98% 19.96
Consumer Durables 1.51% 1.58% 6.13% 17.65% undervalued 26.28% 17.06
Consumer Non-Durables 0.89% 0.95% 1.84% 8.86% undervalued 20.23% 16.28
Consumer Services 1.35% 1.46% 1.86% 16.92% undervalued 14.05% 20.15
Energy 0.71% 0.70% -3.88% 5.14% undervalued 35.46% 25.56
Finance 0.21% 0.26% 6.02% 11.81% undervalued 6.24% 17.36
Health Care 0.62% 0.66% 12.19% 20.43% undervalued 3.86% 19.4
Public Utilities 0.10% 0.11% -2.92% 7.08% undervalued 14.72% 18.21
Technology 1.07% 1.17% 5.43% 17.69% undervalued 20.61% 23.96
Transportation 0.97% 1.01% 4.54% 10.32% undervalued 17.48% 17.02
--UNIVERSE LEADERS
Below, we present various top-five lists for our stock universe from our
Institutional software package (VEI). We filtered the results for liquidity by only
including tickers with an average daily volume in excess of 100k shares/day and a
market price greater than $2/share.
Top-Five Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns
Mkt Valuation Last 12-M
Ticker Name Industry
Price (%) Retn(%)
WTNY WHITNEY HLDG 7.94 -19.42 -5.14 BANKING
ZION ZIONS BANCORP 19.71 23.92 21.29 BANKING
FCH FELCOR LODGING 4.33 75.83 16.4 INVESTMENTS
HOME
KBH KB HOME 11.66 -47.16 -29.93
BUILDING
HOME
TOL TOLL BROTHERS 17.93 -16.26 -15.82
BUILDING
--What's HOT
Universe Valuations
Below, we provide some historical valuation figures for our overall universe so
that they may be compared to today's. As you can see from the table and charts, as
the S&P has settled into its trading range recently, we have seen some robust top
calls by the overvalued by 20% or more metric while the bottom calls are more
problematic. We see this phenomenon in the longer term historical studies as well.
The overvalued by 20% or more figure correlates very closely to tops, so much
so that we based our correction warning on it back in April--we issued a valuation
watch/warning when the overvaluation by 20% calculation exceeded 27.5%. But, the
undervalution figure is not as robust because we can go for long periods with an
elevated reading and no break out to the up side.
Date 10/12/2007 5/7/2008 9/15/2008 3/6/2009 1/20/2010 2/9/2010 4/26/2010 7/2/2010 8/11/2010 9/3/2010
Undervalued 47.93% 69.32% 80.29% 89.89% 47.71% 65.23% 38.54% 77.44% 64.61% 72.01%
Overvalued 52.07% 30.68% 19.71% 10.11% 52.29% 34.77% 61.46% 22.56% 35.39% 27.99%
Undervalued
19.01% 33.39% 48.28% 78.49% 23.76% 32.83% 18.00% 46.70% 31.61% 39.62%
by 20%
Overvalued
22.97% 11.25% 6.89% 6.05% 26.11% 14.90% 33.01% 8.37% 11.42% 9.43%
by 20%
SP500 1554.51 1,418.26 1,220.76 686.39 1,135.51 1072.07 1217.28 1027.37 1121.06 1090.1
--The ValuEngine Forecast 22 Market Neutral
Strategy Newsletter
Our Forecast 22 Market Neutral Strategy Newsletter portfolio recently posted a
5.58% gain versus the S&P 500's decline of 1.44%. Since inception, our market neutral
portfolio is up 35.72%. The trailing 12-Month gain is 12.05% while the S&P 500 is up
3.49% for the same time frame. Our big winner this month was our short in Vivus
Pharma. The FDA refused to approve one of their major drugs and we scored a
whopping 55% gain.
The monthly chart below perfectly illustrates the performance of our portfolio as
well as the benefit of the market neutral approach. Despite some wild gyrations by
the benchmark index (blue line)--down, up, and them down again--the overall
performance (green line) was always positive and on a mostly upward trend. Of
course, every month isn't as positive as the last re-balance period, but when the
portfolio handily beats the benchmark by 500-700 bps a few times a year, the long-
term effects are very beneficial to the bottom line.
Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market
Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com
Treasury Yields
Comex Gold--($1253.10) Semiannual, weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are
$1218.7, $1211.5, $1140.9 and $1115.2 with daily, semiannual and monthly risky levels
at $1259.9, $1260.8 and $1263.8. Gold’s is between my semiannual pivots at $1218.7
and $1260.8. Gold is still overbought on its daily chart.
Nymex Crude--($74.99) My daily pivot is $74.32 with a monthly pivot at $74.45, and
annual, weekly and semiannual risky levels at $77.05, $81.35 and $83.94. Crude oil is
above my monthly pivot at $74.45. Crude oil is no longer oversold on the daily chart
profile.
The Euro--(1.2822) Daily, quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.2799, 1.2167, 1.1721
and 1.1424 with weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3170 and 1.4733. Note that
the euro is no longer oversold on its daily chart. The euro could be the negative
divergence for stocks as my quarterly value level lags at 1.2167.
Major Indices
The major equity averages straddle monthly pivots at 10,164 on Dow Industrials,
1074.9 S&P 500, 2196 NASDAQ, 4364 Dow Transports and 652.82 on Russell 2000.
The Dow--
Daily: (10,320) Daily and quarterly value levels are 10,086 and 7,812 with a monthly
pivot at 10,164, and annual, semiannual, weekly and annual risky levels at 10,379,
10,558, 10,904 and 11,235. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26th
high of 11,258.01. The 50-day simple moving average is 10,261 with the 21-day at
10,300, and 200-day simple moving average as resistance at 10,451.
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