Decision making under uncertainty

how behavioral economics can make you a better coach

Nick Winkelman, PhD

Take a look at the next slide
and say the first thing you
see – then look again?
Take a look at the next slide
and say the first thing you
see – then look again?
…Just as our sight is susceptible to
visual illusions, our mind is equally
vulnerable to cognitive illusions…
 Read the
next slide
out loud –
Fast and
then slow
 A
Bird
In The
The Bush
Read the passage on the
next slide and count
the # of fs
Finished files are The re
Sult of years of scienti
Fic study combined with
The experience of years
 How many did you
count? Did you get 6? If
not, count again…
 …like a filter, brains limit the amount of
information that enters consciousness at any given
moment. this leads to a phenomenon known as
inattentional blindness…
If the mind, like the eyes, are so easily
fooled, what – or who - dictates
what we do and do not see…what
we do and do not think?
 Part 1

A story of
two minds
 System 1 Top-Down System 2
Intuition Reason
Sub-Conscious Conscious
Automatic Controlled
Effortless Effortful
Associative Deductive
Rapid, parallel Slow, serial
Transparency Self-aware
Skilled (Implicit) Rules (Explicit)
Affective Neutral
Best Guess Statistical
Specific Bottom-up Abstract

Kahneman | “Thinking Fast and Slow”

System 1
 May I have some
bread and _________ ?

System 1
 System 2

A bat and ball cost $1.10

The bat costs one dollar more than the ball.

How much does the ball cost?

System 2

Answer:
Ball $0.05 | Batt $1.05
S2 “What happened? I can make those penalty shots in my sleep?”
S1 Hit video replay
S2 “I mean, it wasn’t even close, I put the ball into the stands.”
S1 Reasons uploaded
S2 “What can I do to ensure this never happens again?”
S1 image of Practice
S2 “yes, you’re right, keep practicing!”
S1 Image of success
“Sys1 continuously generates suggestions
for Sys2: impressions, intuitions, intentions,
and feelings.”

“If endorsed by Sys2, impressions & intuitions

turn into beliefs, and impulses turn into
voluntary actions.”

“When all goes smoothly, which is most of

the time, Sys2 adopts the suggestions of Sys1
with little or no modification.”

D. Kahneman
“sys1’s models of familiar situations are accurate”

[However], “sys1 has biases, systematic errors that

it is prone to make in specific circumstances.”

[Sys1 has a habit of answering] “easier questions

than the one it was asked, and it has little
understanding of logic and statistics.”

One final issue, “sys1 cannot be turned off”

D. Kahneman
The main problem is that under most circumstances, we –
system 2 – feel like we are in control, when the reality is
that we are more like spectators with a front row seat to
our consciousness.

While this works most of the time, especially for physical

tasks like jumping out of the way of a car, side-stepping a
defender, or picking up a cup of coffee, where system 1
can get us into trouble is when it steps-in to answers
questions that are best served by the abilities of system 2.
Heuristic are mental shortcuts that can lead
to systematic errors in judgement or biases
 Part 2

Debiasing
decisions
Similarity
Consider the following scenarios for a rugby player with
a history of right hamstring pulls

Rate the following from most likely (1) to least likely (4)

A. The Rugby player will injure their right hamstring at some

point in the season

B. the rugby player will get injured at some point in the

season

C. The rugby player will injure their right hamstring during

high-speed running at some point in the season

D. The rugby player will injure their right hamstring during

high-speed running at some point during a match in the
season
Representativeness Heuristic (Similarity bias)

Sys1 operates on association and is attracted to the most

Plausible – opposed to probable – explanation Of a given
outcome.

If sys2 does not notice an error or doesn’t deploy attentional

effort to overcome it, then sys1’s decision will Stand.

This is the case for both prediction and justification in hindsight

 observation | Most hamstring injuries occur during high speed running

conclusion | high speed running causes hamstring injuries to occur

Action | reduced programming exposure to high speed running

Error 1 | assumed correlation = causation Didn’t consider all known causes | Error 3

Error 2 | overconfidence Bias Didn’t consider counterfactuals | Error 4

 observation | relatively strong athletes tend to also sprint faster

conclusion | improving relative strength should be prioritized to improve speed

Action | relative strength is prioritized within the overall program

Error 1 | assumed correlation = causation did not consider transfer of training | Error 2

1 Magnitude of Force Range of motion 4

2 Timing of force Direction of force 3

availability
 Availability bias (ease of recall bias)

Consider the following example:

Write down as many words as you can that end with: __ N __

Write down as many words as you can that end with: I N G

Decisions, especially those related to judging how likely

something is to happen (e.g., risk of injury), are highly
related to our past experiences and the ease with which
we can recall a given type of event occurring.
Coach A | History of seeing players hurt their Coach B | limited history of seeing players hurt
hamstrings during sprinting their hamstrings during sprinting

Coach A | does not allow sprint training to take Coach B | Happy to leave training as there is no
place outside of a rugby training context clear hamstring related issues

error| overly reliant on the ease with which error | not critically evaluating program could
they can recall sprint training = injury serve problematic in future.

error| allowing emotion – fear – to color error | what got us here will get us there
decision making opposed to looking at facts mentality – consider chance v choice
 Availability bias (ease of recall bias)

Depending on ease of recall, this can be a useful heuristic

for simple decisions like deciding where you should go to
dinner, however, it is a poor proxy for judgements that
require an evidence-based decision.

In support of this point, research has shown that we will

depend more on the quality of what we can recall vs how
easy it was to recall when faced with decisions that are
motivationally important.

Just because it is easier to remember, does not make it true

emotion
 Affect (Feel) Thinking (Emotion Labeled) Action (Decision)
0ms 100ms 200mS 300ms 500ms sec min hourS years
Our decisions are colored by how we feel and the associated emotional label we tag a
context/problem with. The only way we change these system 1 ‘blink responses’ is
through pausing, re-framing and consulting with system 2 before making a decision
The power of a smile
 Mood-Mediated Memory

weather-Mediated Mood

Mood-Mediated perception

Schwarz, N.
 Self-identified morning vs evening people, likely a label based
on one’s sense of alertness and focus, were shown to be more
inclined to make judgement errors during the time a day they did
not identify with.

Generally speaking, we deplete the cognitive resources sys2

requires to overpower sys1 throughout the day. This is why it is
far easier to pack a salad for lunch than it is to eat it.

Bodenhausen (1990)
”In general, individuals in a sad mood are more likely to
use a systematic, data-driven strategy of information
processing, with considerable attention to detail.”

“In contrast, individuals in a happy mood are more likely

to rely on preexisting general knowledge structures,
using a top-down, heuristic strategy of information
processing, with less attention to detail.”

Schwarz, N.
Me…me…me
Final
Thoughts
 evidence
e SAFe S
systems
Don’t leave the truth to Design a training system
chance. Cultivate an that is built on sound
evidence-based practice principles & has distinct
that sits alongside your components that are
practice-based evidence. subject to upgrades.
BIAS
Use checklists, routines, Build in daily feedback
and dashboards to ensure through short & frequent
that you are consistent in self-reflection. Build in
your approach to thought, system feedback by
decision and action. collecting relevant data.

A
Architect © Nick Winkelman 2017 F
feedback
1. Decision making is underpinned by a fast thinking system 1 and a slow thinking system 2

2. Heuristics are mental shortcuts that can produce systematic errors known as biases

3. Errors emerge when the fast thinking of system 1 is not fact checked by system 2

4. Be aware of the similarity bias when trying to make predictions and identify causation

5. Be aware of the availability bias when trying to make predictions and identify likelihoods

6. Be aware of the affect Bias – our decisions are colored and influenced by mood/emotion

7. Be ware of the Zombie Biases – mindless decisions that actively pursue self-interest v Truth
 Thank you

@nickWinkelman | Nick.Winkelman@irfu.ie