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  • Probabilistic Evaluation of The Effect of Maintenance On Reliability An Application

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    Larissa Bacelar
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    Avaliação Probabilista da confiabilidade na manutenção

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    Probabilistic Evaluation of the Effect of Maintenance on Reliability an Application

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    Avaliação Probabilista da confiabilidade na manutenção

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Sinalizar o conteúdo como inadequado
    43 visualizações8 páginas

    Probabilistic Evaluation of The Effect of Maintenance On Reliability An Application

    Enviado por

    Larissa Bacelar
    Avaliação Probabilista da confiabilidade na manutenção

    Direitos autorais:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Baixe no formato PDF ou leia online no Scribd
    Sinalizar o conteúdo como inadequado
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    IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, No. 2, May 1998 PROBABILISTIC EVALUATION OF THE EFFECT OF MAINTENANCE ON RELIABILITY - AN APPLICATION 576 J.Endrenyi (LF) _G.J. Anders (SM) Ontario Hydro Technologies Toronto, Canada Abstract The purpose of maintenance is 10 extend equipment lifetime, or atleast the mean time to the next failure, While to0 little maintenance may have very costly consequences, maintenance, 100, incurs expenditures and it may not be economical to perform it too frequently. Therefore, the wo costs must be balanced. In the past, attempis to approximate this balance have ‘often been based on trial and error. In this paper, a probabilistic madet is proposed for the purpose, and a program ased on this madel is described. The model provides a ‘quantitative connection benween reliability and maintenance, a link missing inthe heuristic approaches. The component ageing process is modelled, and the mean and distribution of the remaining life to failure are predicted for any stage of ageing. The method is applied to apractical example. INTRODUCTION Bleotric power utilities have always employed preventive maintenance programs to keep their equipment in ‘200d working condition for as long as it was economic. At the present when system extensions are heavily constrained and the purchase of new and better equipment may not be feasible, the role of maintenance is particularly significant, Thus, an efficient maintenance program has become an important part of what is often called asset management. ‘The purpose of maintenance is to extend equipment lifetime, or at least the mean time tothe next break-down whose repair may require significant expenditure [1]. Clearly, too litle ‘maintenance inay have very costly consequences. On the other hand, maintenance, to, bas a price-tag, and it may not be economical to perform it too frequently. In a costelfective scheme, the two expenditures must be balanced, PE-STS-PWRS-0.01-1997 A paper recommended and approved by the IEEE Power System Engineering Committee of the IEEE Power Engineering Society for publication In the IEEE Transactions (on Power Systems. Manuscript submited August 27, 1996; made available for printing January 8, 1997. A.M. Leite da Silva (SM) Escola Federal de Engenharia de Itajuba Itajuba, Brazil In the past, attempts to approximate this balance have often been based on trial and error. In this paper, an analytical tool is described, which helps to identify the best maintenance policies, Throughout, the terminology proposed in the above. reference will be applied, BACKGROUND Traditional preventive maintenance approaches usually consist of pre-defined activities carried out at regular intervals (Gchedoled maintenance), Such a maintenance policy may be Quite inefficient: it may be overly costly (in the long run), and it ‘may not extend component lifetime as much as possible. In the last ten years, therefore, many utilities replaced their ‘maintenance routines based on rigid schedules by a more flexible program using periodic or even continuous condition monitoring and daa analysis. Realizing that maintenance impacts on the reliability performance of a component, and thereby of the entire system, many such programs include failure effects analysis, an ‘evaluation of needs and priorities, and flow charts for decision making, Some of these approaches have been named Reliatiliy-Centered Maintenance, commonly abbreviated to RCM [2 3]. In an RCM approach, various altemative maintenance policies ca be compared and the most cost- effective selected. RCM programs have been installed by many electric power utilities as a useful management tool. However, the approach is till heuristic, and is application requires judgement. and experience at every tum, Also, it can take a long time before enough data are collected for making such judgements, For this reason, several mathematical models have been proposed to aid maintenance scheduling. ‘Many of these models are dealing only with replacement policies and disregard the possiilty of the cheaper but less effective maintenance activity. Ifmaintenance is modelled, once again fixed maintenance intervals are often assumed, Only recently have been mathematical models incorporating the. concept of "maintenance when needed" developed. More. etailed reviews of the literature on the various maintenance approaches and models are provided in References 1,4 and 5, In this paper, a probabilistic model is proposed for the failure and maintenance processes, and a program based ox this ‘model, called Asset Management Planner (AMP), is described, (0885-8950/98/$10.00 © 1997 IEEE The mode] is based on a quantitative connection between relibitity and maintenance, a link missing in the heuristic ‘approaches. The central notions in the approach described are the probabilistic modeling of component ageing, the balancing of the contrary effects of failure and maintenance outages (or casts), and the prediction of remaining life given that & cetain stage in the ageing process has already been reached. ‘While RCM programs are generally far more effective than rigid maintenance schedules, they cannot predict the quantitative effect of a given maintenance policy on reliability indicators. ‘The strong point of AMP is that it can do this and, therefore, may be beneficially used either in itself or in conjunction with an RCM strategy. The program, developed at Ontario Hydro Technologies, was successfully tied in applications by Ontario Hydro (hydraulic and fossil-fuel generators, 230-KV breakers) and by the Consolidated Edison Company (boiler water circulating pumps, 345-KV air-blast breakers and transformer tap-changers); in all cases ‘modifications 1 existing maintenance poticies providing economic benefits could be identified. THE BASIC AMP MODEL ‘The basic idea in the AMP model is the probabilistic representation of the deterioration process through discrete stages. In most applications, three are sufficient: an initial stage (DI), a minor (D2) and a major (D3) deterioration stage, Should there be no operator intervention, this last stage is followed, in due time, by equipment failure F) Which requires extensive repair or replacement. All this is sm inustrted in the upper part of Figure 1, where the assumption is made that repair after failure returns the device to the initial stage (“as new" conditions). Note that this assumption could be easily relaxed. Obviously, the operator does intervene and will, in order to slow deterioration, carry out maintenance according to some pre

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