No, 5G won't kill WiFi

I've seen two things today that are trying to suggest that 5G (or even 4G) are going to
cause problems for WiFi, or even "kill it".

Ignore them.

Firstly, this piece by Bloomberg (link) suggests that a combination of mobile operators'
renewed flat-rate data plans, along with LTE-U, could render WiFi obsolete. It's one of the
worst pieces of technology "journalism" I've read in ages.

Secondly a discussion on Twitter led to a 3GPP document about "New Services and
Markets" from a year ago, which talks about "Mobile Broadband for Indoor Scenario" in
section 5.5 (link). That seems to suggest that 4G/5G could replace office WiFi or even wired
LANs.

Needless to say, both are total nonsense. There is a longstanding strain of thought among
some "cellular fundamentalists" that WiFi is just a step away from being replaced by mobile
operators' services. It is wishful thinking, verging on delusion. (It won't be subsumed as a
mere secondary part of 5G, either - although that's a separate post).

While there are some corner-cases that might swing one way or the other, based on pricing
and perhaps neutral-host cellular using LTE in unlicensed bands (perhaps in MuLTEfire
guise rather than the anti-competitive LTE-U and LAA variants), those are rare exceptions.

In home, offices, and public spaces, there is essentially zero chance that owned WiFi or
fixed ethernet are going to be replaced in large quantity, by 5G operators acting as LANaaS
providers.
There are many reasons for this, but some of them are:

 Billions of WiFi-only devices, from PCs and tablets, to TVs, printers and a broad
array of consumer and industrial products.

 Billions more WiFi-only devices in future (no, not everything will have a cellular
module & eSIM - it's way more expensive and limiting - see my report link)

 The ability for WiFi to operate easily in "service", "subscription", "amenity", "owned",
"free", "local", "sponsored", "venue-provided", "ad-supported" and many other
business models. Cellular connectivity - reliant on SIM or eSIM - generally enshrines
"subscription" and a service model as the only option.

 Ability of venue-owners to control and police WiFi network access (eg a cafe-owner
or conference organiser can give the codes to their choice of user, under their
conditions)

 Use of WiFi Direct for P2P connectivity

 Integration of WiFi in businesses with LAN and security systems

 Preferential use of WiFi in-built to smartphone OS's and connection-management

tools

 Large % of people who are not using flat-rate mobile data plans, especially prepay
users in most of the world

 A broad view that WiFi is not only "free" but also *different* as it isn't owned /
metered / tracked by service providers. (You've all seen that revised Maslow pyramid
with WiFi scrawled as a tier beneath food & shelter, I bet)

 Anonymity of most WiFi hotspots

 Huge push of WiFi by cable, fixed-broadband and some WiFi-first MVNO providers,
including to outdoor / metropolitan zones and being built-into 500 million or more
home gateways around the world

 Use of WiFi in public transport (buses, trains, planes) - even if backhauled by 4G

and/or satellite, plus increasing use of WiFi hotspots in cars (again, linked via LTE to
the network)

 Poor penetration of cellular for deep-inbuilding use without DAS or small cell
coverage, which is often impractical

 Lower costs of infrastructure, especially given the heavy IPR load associated with
4G modems and base stations.
  Enterprise desire to use multiple connections for cloud/WAN access, eg via SD-
WAN

I think the most risible line in the Bloomberg piece is this "Wi-Fi also helps fill in gaps in
some office buildings and homes that have spotty cellphone coverage" - in many ways, it's
the complete opposite of the way many users view the two technologies.

Every analysis I've seen has suggested that WiFi use is generally growing faster than
cellular data consumption, and there is very little reason to expect it to change. In many
ways, I'd expect WiFi - and also other unlicensed band technologies for LPWAN and IoT -
to outstrip coming cellular use-cases, especially indoors but also for the wide area.

A less-virulent strain of the same bad idea is that 5G will absorb or subsume WiFi, as part of
its amazing network-slicing / HetNet / integrated architecture. That's wrong too - although
some cellular networks are fairly-well integrated with some WiFi, there is a very large
universe that isn't, and for many of the same reasons won't be in the future either. The
notion that 5G is some sort of magical wireless umbrella (or Borg) that will assimilate all
others is just a "mobile industry establishment" fantasy and lobbying hook.

One last thing I'd add - I'm seeing an increased amount of interest in the opposite to LTE-U
and LAA - the idea of running WiFi in licensed bands, either with new forms of spectrum-
sharing, or perhaps even with adventurous regulators looking at getting more usage out of
existing spectrum. After all, if the technical work suggests that LTE-U doesn't compromise
or interfere with WiFi, then the converse is true as well, especially at lower power in regions
with no cellular coverage, or indoors.

Overall: Ignore any reports of WiFi's demise, or the ability of 4G/5G to replace it in the
future. It's simply not going to happen, except in a couple of tiny overlaps on the big
wireless Venn diagram. WiFi puts downward pricing pressure on cellular data - it's probably
part of the reason for the return of flatrate data in the first place. It's also a prime example of
"network diversity" which would be worthy of protection against creeping cellular "network
monoculture", even if it wasn't already guaranteed a healthy future.