Aimsun‟s Macroscopic Modelling Manual

Version 6.1 – January 2010

© 2005 - 2010 TSS-Transport Simulation Systems
About this Manual
The present manual describes the Aimsun‟s Macroscopic tools in
Aimsun. These tools, to be used, require an Aimsun Advanced
edition.

We at TSS-Transport Simulation Systems have tried to make the

information contained in this manual as accurate as possible. We
cannot guarantee, however, that it is error-free.

Copyright
Copyright  1992-2010 TSS-Transport Simulation Systems, S.L.

All rights reserved. TSS-Transport Simulation Systems products

contain certain trade secrets and confidential and proprietary
information of TSS-Transport Simulation Systems. Use of this
copyright notice is precautionary and does not imply publication or
disclosure.

Trademark
Aimsun is trademark of TSS-Transport Simulation Systems S.L.
Other brand or product names are trademarks or registered
trademarks of their respective holders.

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 ABOUT THIS MANUAL .................................................................................................................................... 2
COPYRIGHT .................................................................................................................................................. 2
TRADEMARK.................................................................................................................................................. 2
1 AIMSUN MACROSCOPIC MODELLING .............................................................................................. 7
2 USER INTERFACE ............................................................................................................................... 8
3 STATIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT ...................................................................................................... 10
3.1 MULTI-USER TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT ................................................................................................ 11
3.2 MACRO SCENARIO ......................................................................................................................... 12
3.2.1 Macro Scenario Editor ....................................................................................................... 12
3.3 MACRO EXPERIMENT ..................................................................................................................... 16
3.3.1 Macro Experiment Editor ................................................................................................. 16
3.3.2 Macro Experiment Context Menu ................................................................................... 18
3.4 GRAPHICAL ASSIGNMENT RESULTS .................................................................................................. 18
3.5 NON-GRAPHICAL ASSIGNMENT RESULTS ........................................................................................... 19
3.5.1 Sections ............................................................................................................................... 19
3.5.2 Turnings ............................................................................................................................... 21
3.5.3 Shortest Paths .................................................................................................................... 22
3.5.4 Convergence ....................................................................................................................... 23
3.5.5 Validation............................................................................................................................ 25
3.5.6 Refinement ......................................................................................................................... 28
3.6 CREATION OF A TRAFFIC STATE FROM ASSIGNMENT RESULTS ............................................................ 29
4 MATRIX ADJUSTMENT ..................................................................................................................... 30
4.1 TRIPS .......................................................................................................................................... 32
4.2 VALIDATION ................................................................................................................................. 32
4.3 ORIGIN DATA ............................................................................................................................... 34
4.4 CONVERGENCE ............................................................................................................................. 35
5 DETECTOR LOCATION..................................................................................................................... 38
5.1 INPUTS ........................................................................................................................................ 38
5.2 OUTPUTS ..................................................................................................................................... 40
5.2.1 Discard Output ................................................................................................................... 41
5.3 ALGORITHM.................................................................................................................................. 41
6 TRAVERSAL MATRIX ........................................................................................................................ 43
7 MATRIX BALANCING ........................................................................................................................ 48
8 APPENDIX 1: OUTPUT DATABASE DEFINITION ......................................................................... 50
8.1 META INFORMATION TABLES .......................................................................................................... 50
8.1.1 SIM_INFO Table .................................................................................................................. 50
8.1.2 META_INFO Table .............................................................................................................. 50
8.1.3 META_SUB_INFO ................................................................................................................. 51
8.1.4 META_COLS ......................................................................................................................... 51
8.2 INFORMATION TABLES ................................................................................................................... 51
8.2.1 Example ............................................................................................................................... 52
8.3 MACROSCOPIC DATABASE ............................................................................................................. 54
9 APPENDIX 2: TRANSPORT PLANNING AND DEMAND ANALYSIS MODELS AND ALGORITHMS
IN AIMSUN ................................................................................................................................................... 56
9.1 THE FOUR STEP MODEL TO TRANSPORT PLANNING ......................................................................... 56
9.1.1 Description .......................................................................................................................... 56
Stage I: ............................................................................................................................................... 57
Stage II:.............................................................................................................................................. 57
Stage III: ............................................................................................................................................ 57
Stage IV: ............................................................................................................................................ 57
9.1.2 Process ................................................................................................................................. 57
9.2 TRIP GENERATION / ATTRACTION MODELS ..................................................................................... 61
9.3 TRIP DISTRIBUTION MODELS AND ALGORITHMS................................................................................ 62

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 9.3.1 Growth Factor Methods .................................................................................................... 62
9.3.2 Gravity Model ..................................................................................................................... 64
9.3.3 Gravity models and measures of dispersion, accessibility and efficiency .............. 65
9.3.4 Multinomial and Entropy models .................................................................................... 66
9.3.5 Gravity models with exponential deterrence function .............................................. 69
9.4 TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT: USER EQUILIBRIUM MODELS ......................................................................... 72
9.4.1 The concept of equilibrium in transportation analysis .............................................. 73
9.4.2 User Equilibrium Fixed Demand Models ........................................................................ 78
9.5 ESTIMATION OF O/D DEMAND FLOWS USING TRAFFIC COUNTS: MATRIX ADJUSTMENT ....................... 81
9.6 HEURISTIC APPROACHES FOR ESTIMATING TIME DEPENDENT O/D MATRICES: TIME SLICING THE GLOBAL
O/D MATRIX .............................................................................................................................................. 89
9.7 ESTIMATION OF THE TRAVERSAL O/D MATRIX ................................................................................. 91
9.7.1 Definition of a sub-network ............................................................................................ 91
9.7.2 Estimation of the traversal O/D Matrix for the selected scenario .......................... 92
9.8 VALIDATION ................................................................................................................................. 95
9.9 METHODOLOGICAL NOTES ON COMBINING MACROSCOPIC WITH MICROSCOPIC ANALYSIS ........................ 97
10 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................... 100

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Figure 1 Accessing the Static Traffic Assignment ..................................................... 8
Figure 2 Accessing the Adjustment and Traversal tools .......................................... 8
Figure 3 Accessing the Detector Location tool .......................................................... 9
Figure 4 Macro Scenario Main folder ......................................................................... 13
Figure 5 Traffic Demand Editor .................................................................................. 14
Figure 6 Macro Scenario Output folder ..................................................................... 15
Figure 7 Macro Scenario Variables folder ................................................................. 16
Figure 8 Macro Experiment Editor – Main folder .................................................... 17
Figure 9 Graphical Assignment Results ..................................................................... 19
Figure 10 Macro Experiment Editor Output Folder Sections subfolder .............. 20
Figure 11 Sections’ volumes and travel time data copied into an Excel file .... 20
Figure 12 Macro experiment editor, Output folder, Turnings subfolder ........... 21
Figure 13 Turnings’ data copied into an Excel file ................................................. 22
Figure 14 Shortest Paths visualization ...................................................................... 23
Figure 15 Information on the iterations of the assignment .................................. 24
Figure 16 Relative Gap Graph ..................................................................................... 24
Figure 17 Static Assignment Validation Page – Graph representation ................ 25
Figure 18 Static Assignment Validation Page – Regression representation ........ 26
Figure 19 Static Assignment Validation Page – Table representation ................. 27
Figure 20 Actions in the validation folder................................................................ 27
Figure 21 Re-scaling the Y-axis ................................................................................... 28
Figure 22 Refinement Page.......................................................................................... 29
Figure 23 Create Traffic State option in the Macro Experiment editor ............. 29
Figure 24 Adjustment Dialogue - Intervals ............................................................... 30
Figure 25 Adjustment Dialogue - Parameters .......................................................... 31
Figure 26 Adjusted matrix ........................................................................................... 32
Figure 27 Adjustment Validation Page – Graph representation ........................... 33
Figure 28 Adjustment Validation Page – Regression representation ................... 33
Figure 29 Adjustment Validation Page – Table representation ............................ 34
Figure 30 Re-scaling the Y-axis ................................................................................... 34
Figure 31 Adjustment Origin Data Page .................................................................... 35
Figure 32 Adjustment R2 and Relative Gap table.................................................... 36
Figure 33 R2 Evolution Graph ...................................................................................... 37
Figure 34 The Macro Experiment hasn’t been executed yet ................................ 38
Figure 35 Detector Location Dialogue ....................................................................... 39
Figure 36 Detector Location Results dialogue ......................................................... 40
Figure 37 Output Folder in the Detector Location dialogue ................................. 41
Figure 38 Sub-network definition .............................................................................. 43
Figure 39 Subarea definition and its corresponding Centroids Configuration .. 44
Figure 40 Traversal Dialogue....................................................................................... 45
Figure 41 Traversal matrix .......................................................................................... 46
Figure 42 Sub-Network and its corresponding centroid configuration ............... 47
Figure 43 Specifying the new generation and attraction totals .......................... 48
Figure 44 Balanced matrix matching the new generation and attraction totals
.......................................................................................................................................... 49
Figure 45 The four stages transport planning model ............................................. 56
Figure 46 Zoning ............................................................................................................ 59
Figure 47 Example of an intersection and its associated movements ................ 59
Figure 48 Graph representation of the intersection .............................................. 60

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Figure 49 Example of network model with centroids and connectors
representing the traffic zones, and the corresponding O/D Matrix.................... 60
Figure 50 Travel time on a link as a function of the volume on that link ......... 73
Figure 51 Demand and supply functions ................................................................... 73
Figure 52 Demand and supply function for a transport system ........................... 74
Figure 53 Example network ......................................................................................... 75
Figure 54 User Equilibrium Assignment solutions ................................................... 75
Figure 55User Equilibrium for two paths ................................................................. 76
Figure 56 Relationship between estimation of O/D flows with traffic counts
and traffic assignment (from Cascetta, 2001) ......................................................... 82
Figure 57 Time Slicing a global O/D Matrix ............................................................. 90
Figure 58 Centroid Configuration for a sub-network ............................................. 92
Figure 59 Traversal O/D Matrix for a subarea ......................................................... 93
Figure 60 Calling the Traversal Generation command ........................................... 94
Figure 61 Examples of centroids for the in and out gates of the Problem
Network ........................................................................................................................... 94
Figure 62 Scattergram of predicted vs. observed values, regression line and R2
coefficient....................................................................................................................... 96
Figure 63 Left: Macro level representation. Right: Micro level representation
showing network details .............................................................................................. 99

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1 Aimsun Macroscopic Modelling
The Aimsun solution for Transport Planning and Demand Analysis has
been designed and implemented to support the analyst in the
application of the main stages of the Four Steps Transport Planning
Methodology.

The main functions are Static Traffic Assignment (Single-User and

Multi-User), Demand Analysis (including Matrix import and export,
Matrix manipulation, Matrix Balancing, Detector Location Analysis
and Matrix Adjustment) and Traversal Generation.

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2 User Interface
The steps to access each one of the macroscopic modelling tools
available are the following:

Static Traffic Assignment is managed by the Macro Experiment,

which is located inside a Macro Scenario.

Figure 1 Accessing the Static Traffic Assignment

Matrix Adjustment and Traversal Generation are accessed by right-
clicking on the concerned matrix.

Figure 2 Accessing the Adjustment and Traversal tools

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The Matrix Balancing feature is accessible via the O/D Matrix Editor
as one of the operations that can be applied to a matrix, the Furness
operation.

The Detector Location Analysis is currently located in the

Infrastructure folder in the Project Window.

Figure 3 Accessing the Detector Location tool

The five features above are explained in what follows. For the rest
of the features corresponding to Transport Planning and Demand
Analysis tools, other manuals must be consulted:

- Matrices can be imported or exported from ASCII and Excel files, by

copying and pasting the data. Refer to the Aimsun Users Manual for
more information.

- For import and export of matrices into and from Emme, refer to
the Emme Interface Manual.

- The Matrix manipulations are available from the Edit menu of the
matrix, accessed by double-clicking on the matrix. Refer to the
Aimsun Users Manual for more information.

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3 Static Traffic Assignment
Static Traffic Assignment models are used to estimate the link traffic
volumes on a network for a period of time, that is, how the trips
given by an O/D Matrix will spread through the network.

The Equilibrium Traffic Assignment is based on Wardrop‟s user

optimal principle: No user can improve his travel time by changing
routes. It is solved by using a Shortest Paths Algorithm and an ad hoc
implementation of a Linear Approximation Algorithm. For a wider
theoretical explanation about the Assignment, see the Appendix 2;
section Traffic Assignment: User Equilibrium Models.

Before doing a Static Traffic Assignment, the user should set or

check all the data needed.

Every section in the network must have an associated volume delay

function (VDF) that models the effects of different parameters (as
for example the volume, the capacity, the length of the section,
etc) on the cost or travel time of going through that section. The
default template offers a set of VDFs associated with each Road
Type in it. The user can add or change the Road Types as well as the
VDFs, refer to Aimsun Users Manual for more information. VDFs can
be set by Road Type or defined on a per section basis.

The connectors, which join the centroids with the physical network,
also have an associated VDF. They are a special case, since their
VDFs only accept the length as a parameter, so connectors travel
time will be either constant or proportional to their length. A
default VDF (0.06*Linklength(S), where the link length is expressed
in km.) is assigned to connectors, unless another VDF is chosen for a
connector through the Centroid editor. Turnings between connectors
and sections are assigned a zero cost.

The turnings in a node also have an associated cost, and

consequently a turning penalty function (TPF) that models it. A
default function is automatically set depending on the
characteristics of the turning:

TurnSpeed(T) TPF
TurnSpeed(T) < 10.0 6.0 * TurnLength(T)
10.0 < TurnSpeed(T) < 4.0 * TurnLength(T)
20.0
20.0 < TurnSpeed(T) < 2.4 * TurnLength(T)
30.0
30.0 ≤ TurnSpeed(T) < 1.7143 * TurnLength(T)
40.0
TurnSpeed(T) ≥ 40.0 1.2 * TurnLength(T)
Table 1 Default Turning Penalty Functions

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 New Volume Delay and Turn penalty functions can be defined using
the Function Editor (see the Function Editor section in the Aimsun
Users Manual).

Note that all Macro default functions offered in the template are
expressed in minutes.
Not only the volume delay functions but also all the parameters they
are dependent on have to be taken care of to get the appropriate
results. It is important to check in the definition of each Vehicle
Type the value set for the Passenger Car Units (PCUs). Each vehicle
has its equivalent value in PCUs in terms of capacity, that is, for
example, if the effect of a truck on the network is equivalent to the
effect of 2 cars, then trucks should be accounted as 2 PCUs in the
calculations.

It is always advisable to run the “Check and Fix Network” option

before starting a static traffic assignment. This tool is available at
the menu Tools / Check and Fix Network… option and with the
Considering Traffic Demand it checks if there is any wrongly defined
VDF or TPF and informs if there is any capacity set to 0 among other
problems. Please refer to the Aimsun User's Manual for more
information on VDFs, their parameters and also for a complete list of
the checks done by the “Check and Fix Network” tool.

3.1 Multi-User Traffic Assignment

The Multi-User Traffic Assignment consists of a multiple traffic
assignment where different types of vehicles are taken into account,
so that the cost for a vehicle type considers the congestion caused
by the volumes produced by the rest of the types. All users perceive
a common travel time for every section and turning, which is
calculated based on the total volume on the section or turning
respectively.

A Multi-User Assignment will give as a result the assignment of

several demand O/D matrices, which correspond to different vehicle
types using the network simultaneously. The way to choose the O/D
matrices to be assigned is by creating a Traffic Demand that contains
them, as shown in Figure 5.

The algorithm proposed to solve the Multi-Class Assignment is

iterative on the O/D matrices for each vehicle type. The first step
consists of the traffic assignment of the first vehicle type, taking
into account the public transport plan volume, if any. Then the
second vehicle type demand is assigned, taking into account the
public transport plan volume and the first vehicle type volume. The
assignment of the rest of vehicle types is done taking into account
the Public Transport volume and the assigned volumes for the
previous vehicle types. When all the vehicles have been assigned
once, the first vehicle type is assigned again, taking into account all
the volumes except its own. The user must set how many complete

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 runs (which imply the assignment of each vehicle type) must be
executed, to reach a stable solution. This number will be the
Maximum Outer Iterations. As an assignment per vehicle type must
be done at each iteration, the parameters for the assignments must
also be specified. All these parameters are set in the Macro
Experiment Editor.

The results obtained correspond to the assignments executed on the

last iteration of the process, and a global assignment result (under
the label All) computed by adding the assigned volumes for each
vehicle type, additional volumes and the Public Transport,
everything being considered in PCU‟s (Passenger Car Units). For
every vehicle type, the same information as in a single-user Static
Traffic Assignment will be available.

3.2 Macro Scenario

In order to execute a Static Traffic Assignment, a Macro Scenario
object needs to be created.

To create a new macro scenario select the New…/ Scenarios / Macro

Scenario option either in the Project Menu or by clicking on the Add
button in the Project Window. If the Scenarios folder already exists
in the Project Window, the New…/ Macro Scenario option in the
folder‟s context menu can be used. Once done, the new macro
scenario will be added inside the Scenarios folder in the Project
Window.

3.2.1 Macro Scenario Editor

3.2.1.1 Main folder

The Macro Scenario Editor Main folder must contain the following
information:

 Traffic Demand
 Public Transport Plan (optional)
 Real Data Set for Validation (optional)

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 Figure 4 Macro Scenario Main folder
Static Traffic Assignments are based on a Traffic Demand that can
contain one or more O/D matrices. An example of a Traffic Demand
in Aimsun is shown in Figure 5. If the Traffic Demand consists of
matrices for a single Vehicle Type, a single-user Static Traffic
Assignment will take place. If matrices for several Vehicle Types are
present in the Traffic Demand selected, a Multi-User Traffic
Assignment will take place.

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 Figure 5 Traffic Demand Editor
When a Public Transport Plan is selected, the PCU‟s corresponding to
the volume represented by Public Transport vehicles will be
automatically calculated to be taken into account for all the travel
time calculations.

3.2.1.2 Output folder

In the Macro Scenario‟s Output folder, the settings for calculating

and/or storing the Paths Data as well as for the sections and turnings
output data must be filled in.

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 Figure 6 Macro Scenario Output folder

The activation of the Shortest Paths Output calculation is optional, if

checked then the paths will be explicitly calculated and made
available after the process together with other Assignment results.
Otherwise, no data about the paths used in the Assignment will be
available, making the Assignment execution faster.

Once the Paths calculation has been activated, the user can also
select whether to store the path assignment results into a file. To
store them, the Store option must be checked and the file where to
store the paths must be selected. As a macro scenario can contain
several experiments, the file created with the paths information will
add the macro experiment identifier to its name. This paths file can
be used either to restore the information without recalculating the
assignment or in Aimsun Meso and Aimsun Micro simulators as user
defined shortest path trees to simulate dynamically the static
equilibrium situation. Please refer to the Aimsun Meso and Aimsun
Micro Manuals for details.

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 In the Sections and Turnings area, the user can choose whether to
store the output information not related to paths in a database.
When selected, the database driver and name where to store the
data must be defined. The basic information stored is the one
corresponding to sections and turnings data. Optionally, the user can
select whether to store the convergence information obtained during
each assignment iteration.

For information about the available database drivers please see the
Aimsun MicroMeso Users Manual, Scenerio editor section.

3.2.1.3 Variables folder

In the Variables folder, all the variables used in the traffic demand,
if any, must be defined.

Figure 7 Macro Scenario Variables folder

3.3 Macro Experiment

Each Macro Experiment will correspond to a Static Traffic
Assignment. They are located inside a Macro Scenario. To create a
Macro Experiment, the Macro Scenario context menu must be
opened and the New Macro Experiment option selected.

3.3.1 Macro Experiment Editor

The data corresponding to the Static Traffic Assignment that needs
to be defined in the Macro Experiment editor Main folder is the
following:

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1. The Maximum number of Outer Iterations (only in case of a Multi-
User Assignment).
2. The Maximum number of Inner Iterations (iterations for each
single assignment).
3. The relative gap for the single assignments, that is, the relative
error allowed expressed as a percentage. The definition of the
relative gap is given in the Appendix 2, section User Equilibrium
Fixed Demand Models, equation (4.19).
4. The number of threads available when working with more than
one processor (CPU).

Figure 8 Macro Experiment Editor – Main folder

Once the assignment has been executed, the Execution Info box will
contain information about the Macroscopic Modelling version used
for the assignment execution as well as the time it took.

In the Variables folder, the variables used in the traffic demand, if

any, can be defined if they are not defined in the Macro Scenario
editor or if a different value than the one defined in the Macro
Scenario wants to be used. The value specified at the Experiment
level prevails over the value specified at the Scenario level.

The Assignment results obtained are shown graphically on the

network and also displayed after the execution. The non graphical
results are added to the Output folder in the Macro Experiment
editor. Please refer to the Non-graphical assignment results section
for details about the Output folder.

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3.3.2 Macro Experiment Context Menu
Apart from the assignment execution, three other features can be
accessed through the Macro Experiment Context Menu:
 Retrieve Static Traffic Assignment Results: This feature reads
the assignment results which were stored in a database when
the Macro Experiment was assigned. The database to be read
is the one stated in the Macro Scenario editor, Output folder.
 Discard Static Traffic Assignment Results: Once the
assignment has been executed, the result data is kept in
memory until the network is closed or this option is used to
discard it.
 Retrieve Path Assignment Results: This option can be used to
read the shortest paths information stored in the path
assignment results file when the Macro Experiment was
assigned. The path assignment results file read will be the one
stated in the Macro Scenario editor, Output folder.

3.4 Graphical assignment results

The graphical representation used to show the assignment result is
defined in several View Modes, named MACRO: Assigned Volume for
<name of the current macro experiment> (Vehicle <name of the
vehicle>), containing several View Styles that can be modified by the
user at any time by editing them. Please refer to the Aimsun User's
Manual for more information about View Modes and Styles.

Figure 9 shows an example of graphical assignment results.

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 Figure 9 Graphical Assignment Results
The View Styles included in the Assigned Volume View Modes are:
1. A style for the width of each section, proportional to its
volume.
2. Two styles for the labels of the assigned volumes on the
sections at two different levels of zoom.
3. Two styles to hide section objects and nodes.
4. A style for coloring each section based on the
volume/capacity percentage. The colours used are defined in
the ASSIGNED_VOLUMES colour ramp. Please refer to the
Aimsun User's Manual for more information on colour ramps.
By default, six different intervals are defined.
5. A style to display Shortest Paths (Except for Vehicle All).

3.5 Non-graphical assignment results

The Assignment Results available in the Tabbed Folder are divided
into five (six in case of a single assignment) pages:

3.5.1 Sections
This page lists the resulting volumes and travel times per link of the
Assignment for the entrances if the „Show Only Entrances‟ box is
checked, as shown in Figure 10, or for all the links otherwise.

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 Figure 10 Macro Experiment Editor Output Folder Sections subfolder
The „Copy Data‟ button allows copying the sections‟ assigned
volumes and travel times into a file for the posterior manipulation of
data, as in the example given in Figure 11.

Figure 11 Sections’ volumes and travel time data copied into an Excel file

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3.5.2 Turnings

Figure 12 Macro experiment editor, Output folder, Turnings subfolder

The Turnings page shows the percentages of the volume on a section
that take each one of the possible turnings when arriving at a node,
the volume of vehicles taking each turning, and the turning travel
time, as seen in Figure 12. The user can choose to print all the
percentages or to omit the cases where only one turning is possible
(that assures the 100% flow taking that turning) by checking or
unchecking the „Show All Turnings’ option.

The ‘Copy Data’ button allows copying the turnings‟ percentages,

volumes and travel times into a file for the posterior manipulation of
data, as in the example given in Figure 13.

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 Figure 13 Turnings’ data copied into an Excel file

3.5.3 Shortest Paths

This page is shown only if the Shortest Paths Output calculation is
Activated in the Output folder of the Macro Scenario (), and it is
available for all vehicle types except for Vehicle All.

In this page, for each O/D pair, the list of shortest paths for each
vehicle type that have been calculated in the static traffic
assignment is displayed, together with their percentage of use,
volume, travel time obtained in the Assignment and the distance
covered by the path. When one or several paths are selected on the
list, they are marked on the network, see Figure 14 for an example.

To ease the analysis, the list of all Shortest Paths can be limited by
selecting the desired origin centroid or destination centroid (or
both), and also all paths going through a specified section can be
listed.

When a Destination Centroid is selected, the Shortest Path trees that

have been calculated through the execution of the Assignment can
be shown.

The paths can be checked to be saved as routes. The „Select Visible

Paths‟ button will check only the Shortest Paths on the current list.

All the paths that remain checked after clicking OK are added to the
collection of routes in the Routes folder, located in the Centroids
Configuration folder. Afterwards, these routes will be available in
the Routes folder and also their usage percentage is exported to the
corresponding O/D matrices.

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 Figure 14 Shortest Paths visualization

3.5.4 Convergence
In this page, information related to the evolution of the assignment
algorithm is shown. For each assignment iteration, the relative gap,
the lambda, best lower bound, Objective function value and the
elapsed time are listed.

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 Figure 15 Information on the iterations of the assignment
The evolution of the relative gap is also shown in a graphic.

Figure 16 Relative Gap Graph

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 In the case of a Multi-User Assignment, the information shown in the
Convergence page corresponds to the last assignment done for each
of the vehicle types.

3.5.5 Validation
The Validation page offers the opportunity to compare the results
obtained in the Traffic Assignment with Detection Data; the flow or
volume counted by a detector can be compared with the link volume
calculated by the Assignment. The way to make the detection data
accessible for Aimsun is explained in Aimsun Users Manual, section
Time Series. The Real Data Set for comparison must be loaded and
set in the Macro Scenario editor, Main page, as the Real Data Set for
Validation.

Once the corresponding time series to compare with the Assignment

volumes is selected in this window, there are three different
possible representations of this comparison: by means of a Graph, a
Regression or a Table. Images of the three of them are shown in
Figure 17, Figure 18 and Figure 19 respectively.

Figure 17 Static Assignment Validation Page – Graph representation

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Figure 18 Static Assignment Validation Page – Regression representation

26
 Figure 19 Static Assignment Validation Page – Table representation
In the Table representation, the observed and assigned number of
vehicles are listed, and also their Absolute Difference and their
Relative Difference computed as:
100 · (Assigned - Observed) / MAX (Assigned, Observed)

The user can also apply some Actions, listed in Figure 20

Figure 20 Actions in the validation folder

The possibility to copy the data into a text file, in the table format,
is available with the Copy Data option. Also, the Graph and the
Regression Graph can be copied as a picture with the Snapshot
option. Finally, the limits of the Graph can be set in different ways,
all listed in the Adjust Limits option. The Set Limits... option lets
the user set the limits in the dialogue in Figure 21, where the
minimum and maximum Y-coordinate can be fixed.

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 Figure 21 Re-scaling the Y-axis

3.5.6 Refinement
This page is only available for single assignments. Under this tab,
two different groups of data and the possibility of continuing the
Traffic Assignment are available: first, all the data relevant to the
settings for the Assignment is shown: the parameters Relative Gap
and Maximum Number of Iterations, and the number of threads used
(all these three parameters correspond to the ones defined in the
experiment prior to executing the assignment); second, the final
information for the obtained Assignment: that‟s the number of
iterations done and the achieved gap. With this information, the
user can decide whether to continue the Assignment allowing more
iterations or forcing the gap to be smaller. After filling in this
„future‟ information for the continuation of the Assignment, the user
only has to click on the „Continue Assignment…‟ button in order to
refine the current Assignment. Figure 22 shows this page.

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 Figure 22 Refinement Page

3.6 Creation of a Traffic State from Assignment results

The obtained section volumes and turning percentages can be used
to generate a Traffic State. The user must press the corresponding
button at the bottom of the Output folder in the Macro experiment
editor (see Figure 23), and the Traffic State will be created in the
Project window, Traffic States folder.

Figure 23 Create Traffic State option in the Macro Experiment editor

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4 Matrix Adjustment
The Matrix Adjustment is based on a bi-level model solved
heuristically by a gradient algorithm, and it is a procedure for
estimating an O/D matrix, from an a priori matrix, using link traffic
counts and/or turning traffic counts from the subset of links and
turnings for which traffic detection is available. For a wider
theoretical explanation about the Matrix Adjustment, see the
Appendix 2, section Estimation of O/D Demand Flows using Traffic
Counts: Matrix Adjustment.

The first thing needed is to load the Time Series containing the
corresponding detection data. This is explained in Aimsun Users
Manual, section Real Data Sets. As the matrix adjustment result is
dependent on detection quality, it is always advisable to start with a
Detection layout location checking, to know how much of the
demand is currently intercepted by the detectors placed on the
network. Go to section Detector Location for more information.

Provided the Time Series for links and/or for turnings are ready, the
adjustment process can be started. The dialogue for the Matrix
Adjustment (available from the matrix context menu) is shown in
Figure 24. At the Intervals folder, by pressing „Add‟, an adjustment
interval will appear and the user must set the initial time of the
interval, the duration, the percentage of the original matrix to be
used, the Time Series with the corresponding link detection data
and/or the Time Series with the corresponding turning detection
data for the adjustment in that interval, and the date in case the
Time Series embrace data for more than one day.

Figure 24 Adjustment Dialogue - Intervals

As many intervals as are desired can be set; the user will obtain an
adjusted matrix for each one of the defined intervals.

For example, the intervals set in Figure 24 will produce two adjusted
matrices. The first one will use as original matrix the chosen matrix

30
multiplied by 0.55 and the detection data in the Time Series
corresponding to the period from 08:00:00 to 08:30:00, and will
produce an adjusted matrix with 08:00:00 as initial time and
duration 00:30:00. The second interval will produce an analogue
matrix corresponding to the second half an hour, with initial time
08:30:00 and duration 00:30:00.

Figure 25 Adjustment Dialogue - Parameters

At the Parameters folder, the adjustment dialogue will ask for the
following:

1. The number of outer iterations, that is, the number of steps of

the adjustment algorithm.
2. The use of threads.
3. The number of maximum inner iterations, that is, the number of
iterations in the Traffic Assignment that is done, as maximum,
for every step of the algorithm.
4. The Gap, the relative error allowed in the inner Assignment.
5. Whether entrance flows should also be used as counts as well as
detector counts.

The option Use entrance flows as detectors is used for a special case
of O/D matrix adjustment, in which in addition to link flow counts
on a subset of links, the values of the total traffic volumes attracted
and/or generated by a subset or all the zones in the model, are
taken into account in the adjustment. The user can include either all
centroids generations and attractions or a subset of them.

The adjustment results obtained for each interval are shown with a
tab folder in four different pages:

31
4.1 Trips
The adjusted matrices obtained are displayed in this page, as shown
in Figure 26. We can see all the matrices by changing their
corresponding adjustment interval in the Matrix: box, at the top of
the window.

Figure 26 Adjusted matrix

4.2 Validation
The Validation page offers the opportunity to compare the results of
the volumes obtained in the Assignment of the adjusted matrix with
the set of Detection Data that was used for this adjustment. There
are three different possible representations of this comparison:
using a Graph, a Regression or in a Table. Images of the three of
them are shown in Figure 27, Figure 28 and Figure 29 respectively.

32
 Figure 27 Adjustment Validation Page – Graph representation

Figure 28 Adjustment Validation Page – Regression representation

33
 Figure 29 Adjustment Validation Page – Table representation
The possibility to copy the data into a text file, in the table format,
is available with the Copy Data option. Also, the Graph and the
Regression Graph can be copied as a picture with the Snapshot
option. Finally, the limits of the Graph can be set in different ways,
all listed in the Adjust Limits option. The Set Limits... option lets
the user set the limits in the dialogue in Figure 30, where the
minimum and maximum Y-coordinate can be fixed.

Figure 30 Re-scaling the Y-axis

4.3 Origin Data

In this page, all the data relative to the settings for the adjustment
is shown: the original matrix used to calculate the adjusted matrix,
and the parameters that were fixed for the adjustment process: the
Maximum Number of Outer and Inner Iterations, the Relative Gap set
for every inner Assignment and the Number of Threads allowed. This
is shown in Figure 31.

34
 Figure 31 Adjustment Origin Data Page
After clicking OK, the adjusted matrices will be saved in the list of
O/D Matrices. They will be saved with the name shown in the
Adjustment Results dialogue; they can be renamed afterwards by
right-clicking on the matrix and choosing the option Rename.

4.4 Convergence
This folder shows the information about the evolution of the R 2 and
about the Assignment‟s Relative Gap obtained at each iteration. The
best R2 is marked in red, the adjusted matrix corresponding to this
R2 is the one returned by the adjustment.

35
 Figure 32 Adjustment R2 and Relative Gap table
The evolution of the R2 through the adjustment process is also
shown in a graph as in Figure 33.

36
Figure 33 R2 Evolution Graph

37
5 Detector Location
Whenever detection data is going to be used as an input to any
process, mainly for an O/D Matrix Adjustment, the first step is to
make sure that the detection data available is providing significant
information on the network traffic. Basing on the percentage of
intercepted demand covered by the working detection sites, the
Detector Location feature can be used to evaluate the power of the
current detection sites locations, or to work out an improvement of
the current configuration by proposing new detectors to be added
which would complement the current configuration, or even to
produce a completely new configuration if there are no detection
sites located on the network.

New detectors locations are selected by maximising the amount of

trips still not intercepted by any detector.

The calculations are made taking into account the section volumes
obtained from a static traffic assignment of the demand on the
network and the paths followed. That means a Macro Experiment
with the Path calculation activated must already have been
executed before starting the calculation. If that Macro Experiment
hasn‟t been previously executed, a dialog asking if the user wants to
execute it prior to the calculation will be shown:

Figure 34 The Macro Experiment hasn’t been executed yet

If Yes is chosen and the Path calculation option is disabled, it will be

automatically enabled and the experiment will be executed in order
to do the Detector Location calculation. See Static Traffic
Assignment for more information on Macro Experiments and Static
Traffic Assignments.

5.1 Inputs
The Detector Location feature is accessed from Menu Project /
New… / Infrastructure / Detector Location. A new detector location
object will be created in the Detector Locations folder located
inside the Infrastructure folder in the Project window.

When double-clicking on a detector location object the following

dialogue appears:

38
 Figure 35 Detector Location Dialogue
The dialogue asks for:
1. The Macro Experiment to be used. In order to be able to
calculate a detector location, the selected Macro Experiment has
to have assigned data for links, turnings and paths available.
2. The Stopping Criterion. The user can set the maximum number of
new detection sites to be added or the percentage of intercepted
demand that must be achieved. If both criteria are selected,
then the process will stop when the first one is met. If the
maximum number of detectors is the only criterion used and it is
set to 0, the result obtained will be the information about the
percentage of trips intercepted by the already existing (included
in the calculation) detectors.
3. From the list of detectors defined in the network, the user must
specify which of them are considered in the percentage
calculation. That is, for example, if some detectors are defined
in the model but not working in the reality, they should not be
included in the calculation. The list of Existing detectors initially
contains all the existing detectors in the network. Select on the
list the ones that must be included and press the green arrow to
add them to the list on the right.
4. The list of sections that must not be considered as candidates for
a new detector. The user must specify if there is any section in

39
 the network that cannot contain a detector. Sections are added
to this list just by clicking on them at the 2D view of the
network. To remove them from the list, select them on the list
and press the Remove button.

The process is executed by right-clicking on the Detector Location in

the Project window and choosing Calculate Detector Location.

5.2 Outputs
At the end of the calculation, the dialogue in Figure 36 pops up:

Figure 36 Detector Location Results dialogue

The information shown here are the sections selected for a new
detector to be placed on them, and their corresponding cumulative
achieved percentage of trips intercepted by the set of locations
calculated up to that section. Ticking a Candidate Section implies
the automatic creation of a detector on that section after pressing
the OK button. The sections listed in a purple background are
sections that already have a detector on them meanwhile sections
listed in a white background are sections that do not have any
detector defined.

The results of the Detector Location can be consulted whenever, by

opening the Detector Location dialogue. The Output folder (see

40
 Figure 37) lists the Candidate Sections, the cumulative achieved
percentage of intercepted trips, the information of whether a
detector was created on that section after the detector location
algorithm execution (the ones ticked) or not and the sections that
currently have a detector on them (the ones in the list with a purple
background).

Figure 37 Output Folder in the Detector Location dialogue

5.2.1 Discard Output

Right click on a Detector Location and select Discard Results option
to remove all candidate sections obtained from a previous
calculation process.

5.3 Algorithm
The procedure to calculate the list of candidate detector locations
follows these steps:

1. Basing on the assignment results of the macro experiment and on

the list of detectors to be included in the calculation, all trips (or

41
 equivalently, all paths) intercepted by these detectors are not
taken into account anymore. The percentage of deleted trips in
comparison with the total amount of trips of the demand is
calculated.
2. From the selectable sections, the one with a higher number of
the remaining trips (yet to be intercepted) is chosen and added
to the Candidates list. Trips through this section are not taken
into account anymore and the accumulated percentage of
intercepted trips is calculated.

Step 2 is repeated until one of the stopping criteria is matched.

42
6 Traversal Matrix
The objective is to extract an origin-destination matrix for a
subarea. Its traversal matrix will contain the gate-to-gate traversal
trips calculated from the Assignment of the trips of a global matrix
in the global network.

Thus, the first thing is to define the subarea, which will be called
Sub-Network. This will be done by means of a polygon defined by the
user. This polygon will be converted into a Sub-Network border, a
red dash line, by clicking on the Tools icon Sub-Network Creation
while the polygon is selected. This is shown in Figure 38. The action
of converting a polygon into a sub-network boundary also creates a
Sub-network object into the Project window. If the sub-network is
rather a list of sections than a graphical area, once the sub-network
has been defined, it can be edited and in the Sections folder in the
sub-network editor, the list of sections belonging to the sub-network
can be chosen. Please refer to the Aimsun Users manual, section 15.
Sub-Network Editing, for more information.

Figure 38 Sub-network definition

43
When the traversal matrix is calculated, a new Centroids
Configuration corresponding to the Sub-Network object is
automatically created, as in the example in Figure 39.

Given a generic network with a defined Centroids Configuration and

a subarea of the network, a new Centroids Configuration for the
subarea is created adding a centroid at every in and out gate and for
the centroids connected with sections inside the subarea, a new
centroid will be created maintaining the same connections inner to
the subarea.

For more information about the Traversal Matrix generation, refer to

the Appendix 2; section Estimation of the traversal O/D matrix.

Figure 39 Subarea definition and its corresponding Centroids Configuration

In order to get a traversal matrix, right click on the global matrix
from which to extract it and select Traversal Generation from the
context menu. The dialogue in Figure 40 will appear.

44
 Figure 40 Traversal Dialogue

The user must choose the Input Parameters:

1. The Sub-Network.
2. The Gap, the relative error allowed in the Assignment.
3. The Maximum Number of Iterations in the Assignment.
4. The Number of Threads to be used.

As output parameter, for the centroids which are not gates but that
exist in the global network, the user can choose to maintain the
Percentage usage in Micro simulation from their corresponding
centroids in the global Centroids Configuration, or to fill them in
automatically with the percentages of usage obtained by the global
assignment that takes place in order to calculate the Traversal
matrix, or to leave them blank.

By pressing OK, the traversal matrix will be automatically calculated

and stored in the Sub-Network‟s Centroids Configuration folder. As
can be seen in Figure 41, the traversal matrix is an O/D matrix which
origins and destinations are new centroids, corresponding to the
Sub-Network Centroids Configuration, which is shown in Figure 42.

45
Figure 41 Traversal matrix

46
Figure 42 Sub-Network and its corresponding centroid configuration

47
7 Matrix Balancing
The Matrix Balancing is based on the Furness algorithm, and it‟s used
to modify a prior matrix in order to satisfy the new
generation/attraction totals specified. For more documentation on
the Furness algorithm, refer to the Appendix 2, section Trip
Distribution Models and Algorithms.

In order to balance a matrix, the matrix operations must be

accessed, by double-clicking on the desired matrix in the Project
menu. Select the Furness operation. As shown in Figure 43, a new
row and column will appear: the user must fill them with the new
total generations and attractions that should match the Balanced
Matrix after the balancing process. The total of produced trips by all
the origins and the total of attracted trips by all the destinations
must be equal.

Figure 43 Specifying the new generation and attraction totals

48
The user must also set the parameters for executing the algorithm:
1. The maximum number of iterations.
2. Epsilon, the maximum error allowed.

The user can also decide if differences between the new value and
the old one must be highlighted when they exceed a certain
percentage, after the algorithm has been executed.

The definition of the Epsilon is given together with the Furness

algorithm, in the Appendix 2, on subsection Growth Factor Methods.

As the Furness operation will overwrite the initial matrix, copying

the matrix before balancing it is advisable, so both the initial matrix
and the balancing matrix are kept. The resulting matrix is shown in
Figure 44.

Figure 44 Balanced matrix matching the new generation and attraction totals

49
8 APPENDIX 1: Output Database Definition
Aimsun has a generic format that accommodates data from macro,
meso and micro experiments. The application generates two set of
tables, one that contains the information about what has been
stored (meta information tables) and another with the information
itself (information tables).

8.1 Meta Information Tables

Aimsun stores information about the object that has generated the
data into the SIM_INFO table and information about the data itself in
the META_INFO, META_SUB_INFO and META_COLS tables.

8.1.1 SIM_INFO Table

This table contains the id of the object that has generated the data
(a replication, a simulation result, a macro experiment).

SIM_INFO Type Description

did INTEGER Id of the object that generates this
data
twhen VARCHAR(10) (ISO 8601) Scenario date
from_time INTEGER (seconds) Simulation/Assignment starting
time from midnight
duration INTEGER (seconds) Simulation/Assignment duration

8.1.2 META_INFO Table

This table has the information about the stored tables (for sections,
nodes, turnings...). More information about which vehicle types have
been used is located in the META_SUB_INFO table.

META_INFO Type Description

did INTEGER Id of the object that generates this
data
tname VARCHAR(128) Table name
tyname VARCHAR (128) The GKType name (if any)
nbo INTEGER Number of objects in this table
souse INTEGER 0: do not use subobjects
1: use subobjects
sob INTEGER Number of subobjects (number of
vehicle types plus one for vehicle
All)
eiduse INTEGER 0: do not use External ID to identify
the objects instead of ID
1: use External ID to identify the
objects instead of ID
sinterval INTEGER (miliseconds) The gathering interval duration
nbkeys INTEGER Number of keys in this table

50
8.1.3 META_SUB_INFO
This table contains the information about the vehicles types used to
gather the data. It lists the object id, the name and the position at
which it appears in the information tables (from 0 for the
aggregated data, to N).

META_SUB_INFO Type Description

did INTEGER Id of the object that generates
this data
tname VARCHAR(128) Table name
pos INTEGER Position in tname table
oid INTEGER Object id
oname VARCHAR(128) Object name

8.1.4 META_COLS
This table lists, for each information table, the fields stored and its
type. The aggregation type details if this data has been created as a
sum of values (for example count) or as a mean of values (speed).

META _COLS Type Description

did INTEGER Id of the object that generates this
data
tname VARCHAR(128) Table name
colname VARCHAR(128) Field name
coltype INTEGER(QVariant::Type) Data Type. Usually a double (6)
aggtype INTEGER 0: Sum
1: Mean
2: Direct Mean
3: Direct Value

8.2 Information Tables

Information tables vary from model to model but they have a
common structure. The name of an information table has a prefix to
indicate the model that has generated it:
MI: Aimsun Micro
ME: Aimsun Meso
MA: Aimsun Macro

The common structure is:

51
 Type Description
did INTEGER Id of the replication/ average /experiment that
generates this data
oid INTEGER Id of the objects that generates this data
eid VARCHAR(128) External Id of the object that generates this data
sid INTEGER Subobject position ( as set in META_SUB_INFO)
ent INTEGER Interval number, from 1 to N and 0 reserved for the
aggregated value.

After these common fields, a list of fields with the effective

information appears. Each field is listed twice, once with the value,
another one with the deviation. The names of the fields are listed in
the META_COLS table. The deviation field name is created adding
the suffix _d to the field name. For example: speed and speed_D. If
a field has no deviation (its aggregation type is Sum) then the second
field does not appear.

8.2.1 Example
The following example shows the contents of all the meta tables and
the information tables (for sections and system).

8.2.1.1 SIM_INFO Table Example

Table for a replication with id 285 and simulated from midnight and
for 1 hour.

did twhen from_time duration

285 2009-05-12 0 3600

8.2.1.2 META_INFO Table Example

Gathering data for the system (MISYS table) and sections (MISECT
table) and two vehicle types (sob: 2 + 1). There are two sections
(nbo) and the gathering interval is 600 seconds.

did tname tyname nbo souse sob eiduse sinterval nbkeys

628 MASECT GKSection 78 1 4 0 600000 1
628 MATURN GKTurning 100 1 4 0 600000 1

8.2.1.3 META_SUB_INFO Table Example

This table contains information for the vehicle types. In this case for
car (id 8), van (id 12) and the aggregated value (id 0, showed in
Aimsun as All).

52
 did tname pos oid oname
628 MASECT 0 0
628 MASECT 1 8 Car
628 MASECT 2 12 Van
628 MASECT 3 28 Truck
628 MATURN 0 0
628 MATURN 1 8 Car
628 MATURN 2 12 Van
628 MATURN 3 28 Truck

8.2.1.4 META_COLS Table Example

Here is the list of all the fields in the information tables. All the
values are stored as double (coltype 6) and are aggregated either as
a sum (aggtype 3) or as a mean (aggtype 2).

did tname colname coltype aggtype

628 MASECT volume 6 3
628 MASECT travelTime 6 3
628 MASECT occupancy 6 3
628 MATURN volume 6 3
628 MATURN travelTime 6 3

8.2.1.5 Information Tables Example

Based on the previous tables we know that we have two information
tables (MASECT and MATURN) with 1 interval (the assignment
duration) plus an aggregated one and three vehicle types (0 for All, 1
for car, 2 for van and 3 for truck). The fields as aggtype 3 will have
only the value (volume).
For the sections, we will list two objects (oid: 106 and 107), for the
system just one, the replication (oid 285). For all the tables, the did
value will be 285 as this is the id of the replication that has
generated all the tables.
An example of the MASECT table showing volume, travel time and
occupancy for the interval and the aggregated one (ent) and three
vehicle types (sid) follows:

did oid eid sid ent volume travelTime occupancy

628 106 0 1 2428,5 1,16754 89,945
628 107 0 1 2504,160 1,28822 92,7466
628 106 1 1 0 1,16754 0
628 107 1 1 0 1,28822 0
628 106 2 1 135 1,16754 9,5
628 107 2 1 120 1,28822 8,44444
628 106 3 1 2147,04 1,16754 79,5200
628 107 3 1 2276,160 1,28822 84,30222

53
8.3 Macroscopic Database
The Tables defined in the Aimsun Macroscopic Results Database are:
MASECT, MATURN and PLCONV.

MASECT
It contains statistical information of the sections for the static
traffic assignments performed.

Attributes:

Attribute Type Description

Name
did integer Macro Experiment identifier
oid integer Section identifier
eid char Section External id
sid integer Vehicle type (from 0 for All vehicles, to
number of vehicles)
ent integer Time intervals, always 1
volume double Volume (PCUs for All, vehs for each
vehicle type)
traveltime double Travel time (vdf units)
occupancy double Section occupancy (%)

MATURN
It contains statistical information of the turnings for the static
traffic assignments performed.

Attributes:

Attribute Type Description

Name
did integer Macro Experiment identifier
oid integer Turning identifier
eid char Turning External id
sid integer Vehicle type (from 0 for all vehicles, to
number of vehicles)
ent integer Time intervals, always 1
volume double Volume (PCUs for All, vehs for each
vehicle type)
traveltime double Travel time (turning penalty units)

PLCONV
It contains information about the convergence of the static traffic
assignment for each vehicle.

Attributes:

54
 Attribute Type Description
Name
did integer Macro Experiment identifier
oid integer Vehicle type identifier
eid char Vehicle type External id
iteration integer Id of the assignment iteration (from 0 to
number of iterations calculated)
relGap double Relative gap achieved
lambda double Lambda
blb double Best lower bound
objFunc double Value of the objective function
itime double Iteration time (seconds)

55
9 APPENDIX 2: Transport Planning and Demand Analysis
Models and Algorithms in Aimsun
9.1 The Four Step Model to Transport Planning
9.1.1 Description
Urban travel demand and mobility analysis have evolved into a well
established methodology, commonly referred to as the four steps
model, or five, depending on the weight the analyst gives to some of
the intermediate stages (Oppenheim (1995)).

Figure 45 The four stages transport planning model

Ortúzar and Willumsen (2001), propose a more general methodology

conceptually depicted in the logic diagram of Figure 45, which

56
 embeds the classical four steps model as part of it. Ortúzar and
Willumsen methodological approach consists of the following Stages:

Stage I:
In which the objectives of the study are defined, the strategies to
achieve those objectives are selected, and the data necessary to
conduct the study are collected. This usually implies
- The collection of the socioeconomic and land use data, usually
structured according to a zoning scheme partitioning the area
that is the object of the study.
- The collection of all the information concerning the
transportation infrastructure: motorways, highways, roads,
streets and urban streets, public transport lines, railways, etc.

Stage II:
It is the modeling stage, and consists of three out of the four steps
of the four step model:
- The construction of the trip generation and attraction models
(Step I)
- The construction of the trip Distribution Models (Step II)
- The construction of the Modal Split Models (Step III)

Stage III:
The Forecasting stage, identified in this case with the construction
of the trip Assignment Models, coincides in this proposal with Step
IV.

Stage IV:
It is the evaluation stage where the results of the forecasting are
analyzed and evaluated in terms of the alternatives that are the
object of the study as defined in Stage I, and if satisfactory
elaborated in the form of the report delivered to decision makers.

9.1.2 Process
The methodology, as represented in the diagram, with the Four
Steps Model highlighted in the blue box, should be understood as an
iterative process in which the results of any stage can lead to the
restatement of the modeling hypothesis of the previous ones, or the
need of collecting new data or evidence to repeat the corresponding
part of the process under the light of the new information.

The modeling utilities and algorithm in the Transport Planning and

Demand Analysis Components in Aimsun have been designed to
support the transport analyst in applying the most relevant
functions of the four step model.

Boxes highlighted in red in Figure 45 identify the functions

implemented in the current version of Aimsun.

57
Descriptive transportation analysis can be formulated in terms of
mathematical models whose components are:

1- The transportation infrastructure and services: road network,

intersections, transit lines, etc.
2- The transportation system operation and control policies
3- The demand for travel including activity and land use patterns

Travel is an activity that takes place from one given geographic

location to another over a transportation network (Oppenheim,
1995). Thus, most of the concepts used in modeling transport
systems have a spatial dimension and therefore the first aspect to be
addressed concerns how the spatial structure is to be represented.

Individual travelers are in general distributed throughout the area of

interest, each in principle at a different location. In a first approach
we might consider traveler locations limited to residential and/or
employment locations. Thus the exact spatial representation of the
demand side of urban travel would require, as many demand
locations as there are travelers. This is the full disaggregated
approach based on household generated trips. The more traditional
approach is the aggregated zonal, in which traveler‟s locations are
aggregated into “traffic zones” defined by the analyst. The size of
each traffic zone can vary from a city block to a whole neighborhood
or a town. Each traffic zone is represented by a “centroid” node
(located usually at the geometrical or gravity centre of the zone).
The abstracted spatial structure corresponding to a given geographic
structure may be visualized in a hypothetical area as in Figure 46, in
which each white dot represents an individual traveler‟s location
and black dots the zones‟ centroids. For the transportation planning
process the typical representation of the demand consists on a
partition of the area under study into traffic zones. The key question
in the model building process is to determine the appropriate
number and size of these zones.

58
 Figure 46 Zoning

The transportation infrastructure is modeled in terms of a graph

G=(N,A), whose nodes iN represent either “centroids”, that is the
sources or origins of trips and the sinks or destinations of these trips,
or intersections. The links aA represent the physical infrastructure,
that is, the road or urban street sections between intersections, and
there are “dummy links”, also called “connectors”, whose role is to
connect physically the origin and destination nodes to the graph
modeling the road network. The graph can be interpreted as an
abstraction of the physical road network.

Figure 47 Example of an intersection and its associated movements

59
 Figure 48 Graph representation of the intersection

However, the translation of the road network in terms of an abstract

graph for transport planning modeling purposes must follow very
precise rules to provide a realistic representation. Intersections
should be represented in terms of subgraphs capturing in full detail
the allowed movements to which turning penalties can be
associated. Figure 47 and Figure 48 depict an example of junction
representation.

Figure 49 Example of network model with centroids and connectors

representing the traffic zones, and the corresponding O/D Matrix

Graphic editors in Aimsun support the process of modeling the

network infrastructure in terms of the described graph (Functions of
Box 2 in the diagram of Figure 45), and modeling the zones in terms
of centroids connected to the network by ad hoc dummy links or

60
 connectors, to appropriately model how trips originating or ending
at a zone, enter or leave the network (Functions of Box 1 in the
diagram of Figure 45). Figure 49 depicts an example of network
model including centroids and connectors.

As a consequence of this approach the traffic demand in the area

that is the object of study is modeled in terms of an Origin to
Destination (O/D) or Trip Matrix T which entries t ij represent the
number of trips with origin in zone i and destination zone j, for a
given time period and a trip purpose, i.e. home to work..

Aimsun also provides the utilities to define and manipulate the O/D
matrix (Functions in Box 3 in the diagram of Figure 45). Figure 49
also depicts an example of O/D matrix for the network of the
example, in which row and column names identify the zones
(centroids).

9.2 Trip Generation / Attraction Models

The first phase in the four steps model is the trip generation and trip
attraction processes to estimate the number of trips originating
and/or ending in each zone. This phase of the travel demand
estimation process can be performed either at the disaggregate level
of the household or at the aggregate level of the zones, when the
number of trips is assumed to be a function of zonal characteristics.
In what follows we will restrict our description to the aggregated
models.

Each origin zone will have a capacity for trip generation that can be
modeled in terms of its socioeconomic characteristics (land use,
income level, house holding, car ownership, employment, etc.) as a
function:

Oi  f(vi1, vi2 ,..., vik ,...., vim ) (2.1)

where Oi is the number of trips generated by the i-th zone and vik is
the k-th socioeconomic variable of the zone. Similarly, as a
destination, each zone, at the aggregate level, will have a capacity
for trip attraction than can also be modeled as function of its
socioeconomic characteristics:

D j  g(v j1, v j2 ,..., v jk ,...., v jm ) (2.2)

where, as before, Dj is the total number of trips attracted by zone j,

and vjk is the k-th socioeconomic variable of zone j.

At the aggregate zonal level the most frequently used techniques for
trip generation and attraction are based on multiple regression
analysis, and then a common form for functions Oi and Dj may be:

61
 m
Ti  a i0  a
k 1
ik v ik i (Ti=Oi if i is an origin and Ti=Di if it is a destination)

(2.3)

in which the vik‟s are the given trip “production” or “attraction”

factors, depending on the type of model, and aik are the parameters
whose numerical values will be estimated by multiple regression
after the available data from surveys, census data bases and other
sources. The factors of trip generation / attraction in this approach
can be zones and travelers attributes, as well as other attributes as
those of travel modes, travel routes, number of bus stops or travel
times and costs.

9.3 Trip Distribution Models and Algorithms

Trip distribution is the next step in the Four Step Methodology and is
performed after the trip generation/attraction is completed, and
consists of distributing across various destinations each of the trip
origins Oi. Once the set of centroids is defined, the desired
movements over the road network can be expressed in terms of an
“origin-destination” matrix, whose entries specify the flow (number
of trips over the time period of the study) between every origin
centroid and every destination centroid in the network:

OD Matrix: T=[tij] tij = number of trips between origin i and destination j

Taking into account the trip generation/attraction of each zone, the

mobility matrix, also called trip matrix and Origin-Destination, O/D
matrix, that models the transportation demand in the area object of
study, the distribution problem (Erlander and Stewart, 1990) deals
with determining a non-negative matrix {tij} satisfying the marginal
constraints:

t
j
ij  Oi , i  I  Origin Set
(3.1)
t
i
ij  D j , j  J  Destination Set

and certainly other conditions as:  O  D

i
i
j
j (3.2)

(3.1) means that the sum of the trips generated at each origin over
all the destinations must be equal to the trip generation capacity of
each origin, and the sum of all trips arriving to each destination
from all origins must be equal to the trip attraction capacity of each
destination.

9.3.1 Growth Factor Methods

Assume that a basic or target trip matrix {t ij} from a previous study
or recent survey is available. The purpose is to estimate a trip
matrix {Tij} for a design year when the available information is about

62
the growth rate for the study area in the time period span between
the year of the target matrix and the design year.

The particular case of interest to us is when information is available

on the future number of trips originating and terminating in each
zone, which means that two sets of growth factors are available for
trips in and out of each zone, ai and bj respectively such that:

Tij = ai bj tij iI and jJ (3.3)

A model known as the doubly constrained growth factor; the

computation of the {Tij}, as defined by (3.3), satisfying the
conditions:

T j
ij  Oi , i  I

 T  D , j  J
i
ij j (3.4)

O  D
i
i
j
j

requires the computation of the growth coefficients a i and bj that

can be done by means of the so called Furness balancing procedure
(Furness, 1965; see also Fratar 1954, Bregman, 1967).

The Furness balancing procedure, as implemented in Aimsun, is

formulated as follows:

Step 0. Initialization
Set l=0 (iteration count), and ai0  b 0j  1,i,j

Step 1. Balancing rows

Oi
a li1  i
b t
j
l
j ij

Step 2. Balancing columns

Dj
b lj1  j
a
i
l 1
i t ij

Step 3. Stopping Test

 a li1  a li   bl1  blj  
If Max Max , Max j   ε (a convergence criteria
 l1   l1 
i
 ai  j
 bj 
defined by whether the acceptable error ε is satisfied) or l+1=
lmax, (the maximum number of iterations has been reached)
then STOP.

63
 Otherwise set l:=l+1 and return to Step 1.

As Ortúzar and Willumsen point out (Ortúzar and Willumsen, 1990),

“growth factor methods are simple to understand and make direct
use of observed trip matrices and forecasts of trip end growth. They
preserve the observations as much as is consistent with the
information available in growth rates. This advantage is also their
limitation as they are probably only reasonable for short-term
planning horizons… The main limitation, however, is that the
methods do not take into account changes in transport costs due to
improvement (or new congestion) in the network”. It is also
important to note that they preserve the “structural zeroes” or, in
other words, that any cell tij which equals zero in the base year O/D
matrix, will equal zero in the predicted Tij O/D matrix.

9.3.2 Gravity Model

Gravity Models belong to the family of models aimed to assist in
forecasting future trip patterns when important changes in the
network take place. They are named in this way because they are
inspired intuitively in the idea that human spatial interactions can
be described by a Newton‟s like model. According to Erlander and
Stewart (Erlander and Stewart, 1990), one of the first statements on
the idea under the gravity model was given by H.C. Carey in 1858
(“Man tends on necessity to gravitate towards his fellow-man. Of all
animals he is the most gregarious, and the greater the number
collected in a given space the greater is the attractive force there
exerted, as is seen to have been the case with great cities of the
ancient world, Nineveh and Babylon, Athens and Rome, and as is
now seen in regard to Paris and London, Vienna and Naples,
Philadelphia, New York and Boston. Gravitation is here, as
everywhere else in the material world, in the direct ratio of the
mass and the inverse one of the distance”). The general form of the
gravity model is the following:

 
Tij  αOiD j f cij (3.5)

where Oi, the number of trips generated by origin i is the simile to

the “mass” of origin i, Dj, the trip attraction capability of
destination j is the simile to the “mass” of destination j,  is a
constant and f(cij) is a deterrence function in terms of the cost c ij of
traveling from origin i to destination j. The application of the
formula (3.5) cannot be done straightforward because the constant
 cannot be determined in such a way that the marginal constraints
(3.1) and (3.2) hold. This requires the introduction of additional
normalizing factors Ai and Bj, and the model is restated in the form:

 
Tij  Ai OiB jD j f cij (3.6)

64
 The various types of gravity models depend on the form of the
deterrence function, the most common are:

- Gravity models with exponential deterrence function

f cij   exp γcij 
- Gravity models with power deterrence function f cij   cijn
- Gravity models with combined deterrence function
  
f cij  cijnexp  γcij 
9.3.3 Gravity models and measures of dispersion, accessibility and efficiency
Given the undetermined nature of the model there will usually be a
large number of feasible matrices for a given set of Oi and Dj, since
there are IJ elements and only I+J constraints in equations (3.1), this
fact implies that a choice among the feasible matrices {T ij} has to be
made according to some additional criterion. The problem is similar
to that of the estimation of entries in a contingency table, given a
criterion for choosing the entries, that could depend on the type of
given information about the {Tij}, as the marginal constraints in
(3.1), or a priori estimates {tij} of the {Tij}.

Examples of criteria in this case would be those based on measures

of dispersion as:
Tij
- The entropy function, Ht    Tijlog introduced by Wilson
iI jJ
t ij
(Wilson, 1967) borrowing concepts form statistical mechanics into
planning and geography that can be interpreted in the following
way: “Maximize the interactivity, as measured by the entropy
function, subject to marginal constraints and a constant on total
cost  cijTij  C ”
iI jJ

- The Chi-square function χ 2  

Tij  t ij 2
iI jJ
t ij

An alternative approach to model the spatial interaction was

formulated by Smith (Smith 1978) looking upon the relative t ij (0 ≤ tij
≤ 1) of trips from zone i to zone j as a probability distribution and
considering a random experiment consisting of drawing T (total
number of trips) independent samples from this probability
distribution resulting in Tij trips from zone i to zone j, iI, jJ.

Smith postulates the Efficiency Principle approach, a probabilistic

model which basic assumption is that activity equivalent
microstates, determined by specifying each trip maker‟s origin and
destination zones (as in the sampling experiment), that are less
costly, as measured by a given cost function C(t), are more
probable. Assuming that the total cost is given by  cijTij then the
iI jJ

Efficiency Principle holds if the probability of each activity

65
 equivalent sample is a monotonic decreasing function of the total
cost. Smith showed that the Efficiency Principle holds if and only if:


Tij  ri s jexp  γcij  (3.7)

9.3.4 Multinomial and Entropy models

Following Smith‟s statements, let the total number of trips be T.
Assume that each of the T trips is allocated with probability p ij to
cell (i,j), independently of the other trips, p ij ≥ 0, iI, jJ, and
pij  1.
i,j

Let (in, jn) be the random variable denoting the cell to which trip
number n is allocated, and Tij(T) be the random variable denoting
the number of trips allocated to cell (i,j).

Let X ijn be the indicator function of trip number n:

X ijn  1, if in , jn   i, j

T

 n
X ij  0 otherw ise 
Then Tij T   X  n
ij (3.8)
 n1

The microstate {(i1,j1), …, (iT,jT)} is determined by specifying for

each trip n the cell to which is allocated. Under these hypotheses
the trip matrix {Tij(T)} is a random matrix taking values {Tij}, Tij ≥ 0,
Tij integer. The probability of a certain allocation {(i 1,j1), …, (iT,jT)},
a microstate, can now be written:
T
Pi1, j1 ,...,i T , jT   p
n1
in jn   p 
i, j
ij
Tij
(3.9)

There are usually many microstates that produce the same trip
matrix; it can be proven that the number of different microstates
that produce the same trip matrix is given by the multinomial
coefficient:

T!
(3.10)
T !
i, j
ij

Hence, the trip matrix {Tij(T)} has the multinomial probability

distribution:


P Tij T   Tij   T!
 p  Tij
(3.11)

ij
T!
ij i, j
i, j

On the other hand, two microstates i1, j1 ,....,iT , jT  and

  
i1' , j1' ,...., i'T , j'T  are activity-equivalent, if an only if:
T  T , T  T
i
ij
i
'
ij
j
ij
j
'
ij and then T  T
i, j
ij
i, j
'
ij (3.12)

66
The probability distribution {pij} is said to satisfy the Efficiency
Principle if and only if for every T and every pair of activity-
equivalent microstates i1, j1 ,....,iT , jT  and i1' , j1' ,...., i'T , j'T we have:    
 
 c T   c T   Pi , j ,....,i   Pi1' , j1' ,....,i'T , j'T 
 '
 ij ij ij ij 1 1 T , jT

 i, j i, j  (3.13)
that is  p 
i, j
ij
Tij
  p 
i, j
ij
Tij'

Let cij be rational, then it can be proven that the probability

distribution {pij} satisfies the Efficiency Principle if and only if for
some rRI and sRJ, and R:
pij  ri s jexp γcij  (3.14)

Wilson (Wilson, 1967) assumes that if the number of microstates

H{Tij} associated with the mesostate Tij is given by (3.10)
 
H Tij 
T!
(3.15)
T !
i, j
ij

and all microstates are equally likely, then the most probable
mesostate would be the one that can be generated in a greater
number of ways. Taking logarithms in (3.15), and using the first
Stirling approximation:

 
 
 
log H Tij  log
T! 
 logT!   logT !  logT!    T logT   T 

 Tij ! 
ij ij ij ij
  i j i j
 i, j 
(3.16)
then the trip distribution problem can be solved by the following
convex optimization model:

MAX HT     T logT   T 

i j
ij ij ij

s.t. T j
ij  Oi , i  I
(3.17)
T i
ij  D j, j  J

Tij  0, i  I, j  J

which is the Entropy Model of Wilson, or model of maxim

indetermination, a convex model that can be solved in a
straightforward way applying Kuhn-Tucker conditions (Bazaraa,
1993). The Lagrangean function of (3.17) is:

67
    
LT, α, β      T logT   T   α  O   T   β D   T 
ij ij ij i i ij j j ij (3.18)
iI jJ iI  jJ  jJ  iI 

where I and j are respectively the i-th and j-th Lagrangean

multipliers of the constraints in (3.17). The optimality conditions
hold for:

L
Tij
 
 0  log Tij  αi  β j  Tij  exp  αi  β j   (3.19)

and making the changes: Ai Oi=exp{-i}, iI, and Bj Dj = exp{-j},

jJ the solution can be restated as:
Tij = AiOiBjDj iI, jJ (3.20)

Where the balancing factors Ai and Bj can be calculated by

Furness. This entropy model can be interpreted as a doubly
constrained growth factor with no a priori knowledge, and therefore
assuming that tij =1, iI, jJ.

When an a priori matrix t={tij} is known, then the entropy function

can be reformulated as:

  Tij  
H(T)     T log t ij
  Tij  t ij 

ij 

(3.21)
iI jJ  

which takes the value 0 if Tij = tij and otherwise a positive value
which increases with the difference between T ij and tij, it can then
be considered a good measure of the difference between T and t. It
can further be shown that:

Tij  t ij 2
HT   
1
(3.22)
2 iI jJ
t ij
In this case the resulting solution is the one with the mesostates
closest, in the sense of (3.21) or (3.22) to the prior mesostates and
is provided by the convex optimization model:

  Tij  
MAX HT      T log t ij
  Tij  t ij 

ij 

i j  
s.t. T j
ij  Oi , i  I
(3.23)

T
i
ij  D j, j  J

Tij  0, i  I, j  J

whose Lagrangean function is:

68
   Tij      
LT, α, β     T log t
ij
  Tij  t ij  

ij 
 α  O   T   β D   T 
i i ij j j ij
iI jJ   iI  jJ  jJ  iI 
(3.24)

where I and j are respectively the i-th and j-th Lagrangean

multipliers of the constraints in (3.23). The optimality conditions
hold now for:

 Tij 
L
Tij
 0  log   αi  β j  Tij  t ijexp  αi  β j
 t ij 
  (3.25)
 

and making the changes: Ai Oi=exp{-i}, iI, and Bj Dj = exp{-j},

jJ the solution can be restated as:
Tij = AiOiBjDjtij iI, jJ (3.26)

And defining ai = AiOi and bj = BjDj (3.26) can be restated as: Tij =
aibjtij and the values of the balancing parameters ai and bj can be
calculated by means of the Furness algorithm.

9.3.5 Gravity models with exponential deterrence function

One of the drawbacks of the former model is that they do not take
explicitly into account travel costs between zones. In cases when an
estimate cij of the cost of traveling from zone i to zone j for all
zones is available, cost can be explicitly included in the entropy
model adding them as a constraint  c ijTij  C , on the total
iI jJ

expenditure in the system, when generalized costs are used, or total

travel time in the system when costs are measured in terms of travel
times. The modified model is now:

MAX HT     T logT   T 

i j
ij ij ij

s.t. T j
ij  Oi , i  I

T  D ,
i
ij j j  J (3.27)

 c T  C
iI jJ
ij ij

Tij  0, i  I, j  J

which is again a convex optimization model which Lagrangean

function is:
     
LT, α, β, γ      TijlogTij   Tij   αi  Oi   Tij   β j D j   Tij   γ C  cijTij 
iI jJ iI  jJ  jJ  iI   iI jJ 
(3.28)
where, as before, I and j are respectively the i-th and j-th
Lagrangean multipliers of the constraint in (3.27),  is the

69
Lagrangean multiplier of the time constraint, and the optimality
conditions hold for:

L
Tij
  
 0  log Tij  αi  β j  γcij  Tij  exp  αi  β j  γcij  (3.29)

and making, as usually, the changes Ai Oi=exp{-i} iI; Bj Dj = exp{-

j} jJ, the solution can be restated as:

Tij = AiOiBjDjexp{-cij} iI, jJ (3.30)

And the balancing coefficients Ai and Bj can be calculated by the

following modified Furness algorithm:

Step 0. Initialization
Set l=0 (iteration count), and Ai0  B0j  1,i,j

Step 1. Balancing rows

1
Ali1  i
 
BljD jexp  γcij 
j

Step 2. Balancing columns

1
Blj1  j
 
Ali1Oi exp  γcij 
i

Step 3. Stopping Test

 Ali1  Ali   Bl1  Blj  
If Max Max , Max j   ε (a convergence criteria
 l1  j  Bl1  
i
 A i   j 
defined by whether the acceptable error ε is satisfied) or l+1=
lmax, (the maximum number of iterations has been reached)
then STOP.

Otherwise set l:=l+1 and return to Step 1.

A recommended estimated value for the Lagrangean multiplier  is

the inverse of the average travel cost between zones, that is =
(average travel cost)-1.

Another case of interest is that of the gravity model with

exponential deterrence function when the a priori information of a
basic, or target trip matrix {tij} from a previous study, or recent
survey, is available. The model (3.27) can be reformulated as:

70
   Tij  
MAX HT      T log t ij
  Tij  t ij 

ij 

i j  
s.t. T j
ij  Oi , i  I

T  D ,
i
ij j j  J (3.31)

 c T  C
iI jJ
ij ij

Tij  0, i  I, j  J

whose Lagrangean function is:

(3.32)
where, as before, I and j are respectively the i-th and j-th
Lagrangean multipliers of the constraints in (3.31),  is the
Lagrangean multiplier of the time constraint, and the optimality
conditions hold now for:

 Tij 
L
Tij
 0  log   αi  β j  γcij  Tij  t ijexp  αi  β j  γcij
 t ij 
  (3.32)
 

and making the changes: ai = AiOiexp{-i}, iI, and bj = BjDj exp{-

j}, jJ the solution can be restated as:

Tij = aibjtijexp{-cij} iI, jJ

(3.33)

whose balancing coefficients ai and bj can be calculated by an ad

hoc version of Furness:

Step 0. Initialization
Set l=0 (iteration count), and ai0  b 0j  1,i,j

Step 1. Balancing rows

Oi
a li1  i
 b j t ijexp 
l
 γcij 
j

Step 2. Balancing columns

Dj
blj1  j
 a li1t ijexp  γcij  
i

Step 3. Stopping Test

71
  a li1  a li   bl1  blj  
If Max Max , Max j   ε (a convergence criteria
 l1  j  bl1  
i
 a i   j 
defined by whether the acceptable error ε is satisfied) or l+1=
lmax, (the maximum number of iterations has been reached)
then STOP.

Otherwise set l:=l+1 and return to Step 1.

Using as before the inverse of the average travel cost between zones
as recommended estimated value for the Lagrangean multiplier .

9.4 Traffic Assignment: User Equilibrium Models

The flow patterns through a road network can be looked upon as the
result of two competing mechanisms:

- Users of the system try to travel in a way that minimizes the

disutility associated with transportation
 Motorists driving between a given origin and a given
destination are likely to choose the route with the
shortest travel time
- The disutility associated with travel is not fixed but rather
depends in part on the usage of the transportation system
 The travel time on each of the paths connecting the origin
and the destination is a function of the total traffic flow
due to congestion

Consequently it may not be obvious which of the flow patterns

through the network has the shortest time. Transportation analysis
looks at transportation level of service (or its inverse, travel
disutility) and flows. The results of the analysis lead to a set of flows
and a set of level-of-service measures that are at equilibrium with
each other.

The model purpose is the description of the interaction between

congestion and travel decisions that result in this flow. Since
congestion increases with flow and trips are discouraged by
congestion, this intersection can be modeled as a process reaching
equilibrium between congestion and travel decisions.

The travel impedance, or level of service, associated with the links

representing a road network, can include many components,
reflecting travel time, safety, cost of travel, stability of flow and
others. The most common representation of this impedance is in
terms of travel time, as far as empirical studies seem to indicate
that it is a primary deterrent for flow and on the other hand it is
easier to measure than many other possible impedance components.
As has been mentioned the level of service in transportation services
is usually a function of their usage. Because of congestion, travel
time on road networks is an increasing function of flow. The typical

72
 representation of link impedance is in terms of the so called
“volume-delay” functions, expressing the travel time sa(va) on link
aA as a function of the volume va on that link. These are non-linear
functions which theoretical appearance looks as the one depicted in
Figure 50, always under the capacity of the link.

Figure 50 Travel time on a link as a function of the volume on that link

9.4.1 The concept of equilibrium in transportation analysis

It is a concept borrowed from the theory of the perfectly
competitive markets modeled in terms of two interactive groups:
the producers and the consumers. The behavior of the producers is
characterized by a supply function, and the behavior of the
consumers is characterized by a demand function. The supply
function expresses the amount of goods that the supplier produces
as a function of the price of the product. As the price increases, it
becomes profitable to produce more and the quantity supplied
increases.

Figure 51 Demand and supply functions

The demand function describes the aggregate behavior of consumers
by relating the amount of the product consumed to its price. As the
price increases, the amount consumed decreases. Figure 51 depicts
simple demand and supply functions for a certain product. The point

73
at which the two curves intersect is characterized by the “market
clearing” price, P*, and quantity produced Q*. The point (P*,Q*) is
the point at which price remains stable, this is known as the
“equilibrium” point.

For transport systems the demand is represented in terms of a

demand function that relates the number of trips to their cost (i.e.
travel time), and the supply is represented in terms of a
performance function (i.e. travel time between O/D pairs), as in
Figure 52.

Figure 52 Demand and supply function for a transport system

The user equilibrium is reached when “no traveler can improve

his/her travel time by unilaterally changing routes” or, as originally
formulated by Wardrop (1952), “The travel times on all the routes
actually used are equal to or less than those which would be
experienced by a vehicle on any unused route”, formulation known
as Wardrop‟s first principle or Wardrop‟s User Equilibrium principle.

A simple example taken from Sheffi (1985) will help to illustrate and
understand the Wardrop‟s Principle. Let‟s assume a simple network
as the one in Figure 53, with only one origin and one destination
connected by two alternative routes, with a total demand of q trips,
generating the traffic flows x1 and x2, on routes one and two
respectively, satisfying q = x1+x2.

74
 Figure 53 Example network
Let‟s also assume that travel times s1 and s2 in routes 1 and 2
respectively are determined by the performance functions s 1(x1) and
s2(x2) of Figure 54, that estimate the travel time as a function of the
traffic flow on each route.

If the total flow is q<q‟, then all it is assigned to route 2, whose

travel time is lower, as depicts part (a) of Figure 54, but for a higher
flow q = x1+x2 the flow distribution in equilibrium, x1 and x2,
between routes 1 and 2 has to be done in such a way that travel
time s on both routes is the same, as depicts part (b) of Figure 54.

Figure 54 User Equilibrium Assignment solutions

Another way to view the user equilibrium (UE), between the two
routes is to superimpose the two cost (travel time or volume delay)
curves (Bell and Iida, 1997) as shown in Figure 55. To the left of the
intersection of the two curves, route 1 costs less than route 2, and
there is an incentive to swap to route 1. To the right of the
intersection, route 2 costs less than route 1 and there is an incentive
to swap to route 2. The intersection of the two curves represents
the equilibrium point at which costs of route 1 and 2 are equal and
there is no incentive to swap routes. Geometrically the intersection
corresponds also to the point that minimizes the total area under
the cost functions; at any other point the area will be greater.

75
The main traffic models for the estimation of the distribution of
traffic flows on a road network are based on mathematical models
of route choice, that is, the modeling of how users select their
routes under the prevailing traffic conditions.

The concept of equilibrium plays a central role in this model building

process. Wardrop (Wardrop, 1952) stated the two principles that
formalized this concept of equilibrium, and introduced the
behavioral postulate of the minimization of total costs, that along
with the principles are the fundamental modeling hypothesis. Traffic
equilibrium models are descriptive models that are aimed at
predicting link flows and travel times that result from the way in
which users choose routes from their origins to their destinations in
a transportation network (Florian, 1986, and Florian and Hearn,
1995) (Sheffi, 1985).

The first principle states that "The journey times on all routes
actually used are equal to or less than those which would be
experienced by a single vehicle on any unused route".

Figure 55User Equilibrium for two paths

The traffic flows that satisfy this principle are usually referred to as
"user optimized flows", since each user chooses the route that he
perceives the best. "System optimized flows" are characterized by
Wardrop's second principle which states that "the total travel time is
minimum".

76
Static Traffic Assignment Models built according to these principles
and the postulate of minimization of total cost, consider a given
period of time for which the demand characteristics have been
determined, and estimate the flow patterns that result from the
interaction of the demand and the congestion characteristics of the
transport infrastructure available.

The road network is modeled in terms of a graph, whose nodes nN

represent origins, destinations, and intersection of links, and links,
aA, represent the transportation infrastructure, as discussed
above. The flow of trips on a link a is given by va, and the cost of
traveling on a link is given by a user cost function s a(v) where v is
the vector of link flows over the entire network. As these functions
model the time delay for a journey on arc a, they are called
volume/delay functions. A key modeling hypothesis concerning the
behavior of these functions is that they are assumed to be
monotone, that is such that:

s(v)  s(v)T (v  v)  0 (4.1)

and they are also assumed to be continuous and differentiable.

The origin to destination demands, gi, i, where  is the set of

origin/destination pairs, O/D, may use directed paths k, kKi, where
Ki is the set of paths for O/D pair i. The flows on paths k, hk, satisfy
flow conservation and non-negativity conditions:

h
kK i
k  gi , i  
(4.2)
hk  0,k  Ki , i  

The corresponding link flows va are given by:

va   δ
i kKi
akhk , a  A (4.3)

1 if link a belongs to path k

Where: δ ak  
0 otherw ise

The cost of each path sk is the sum of user costs of the links on path
k:

sk  δ
aA
ak s a (v ),k  Ki , i   (4.4)

Let ui be the cost of the least cost path for any O/D pairs i:

77
 ui  Minsk | k  Ki  i   (4.5)

The network user equilibrium model, based on first Wardrop‟s

principle, is formulated by supposing that for every O/D pair
Wardrop's user optimal principle is satisfied, or in other words, that
all the used directed paths are of equal cost, that is:
 0 if hk*  0

sk*  ui*   k  Ki , i  (4.6)

 0 if hk* 0

over the feasible set (4.2)-(4.3). This network equilibrium model

may be restated in the form of a variational inequality:
  
sk  ui hk  hk  0, k  Ki , i   (4.7)

where hk is any feasible path flow. If h*k>0, then s*k=u*i since hk

may be smaller than h*k, if h*k=0 then the inequality is satisfied
when s*k-u*i0.

By summing over kKi, and i, and taking into account constraints
(4.2) and (4.3) when the demand gi is constant, model (4.7) can be
reformulated as follows (Fisk and Boyce, 1983) (Magnanti, 1984)
(Dafermos, 1980):
s v  v  v   0
T 
(4.8)

which is the variational inequality formulation derived by Smith

(Smith, 1979).

9.4.2 User Equilibrium Fixed Demand Models

When the user cost functions are separable, that is, they depend
only on the flow in the link: sa(v)=sa(va) aA, and demands gi are
considered constant, independent of travel costs, the variational
inequality formulation has the following equivalent convex
optimisation problem (Patriksson, 1994; Florian and Hearn, 1995):

va

Min S(v )   s
aA 0
a (x)dx

s.t. h
kKi
k  gi , i  I (4.9)

hk  0,k  K i , i  I

and the definitional constraint of va (4.3).

Although the traffic assignment problem is a special case of non-

linear multi-commodity network flows problem, and may be solved
by any of the methods used for the solution of this problem, more
efficient algorithms for solving this problem, based on an adaptation

78
of the linear approximation method of Frank and Wolfe (Frank and
Wolfe, 1956) have been developed in the past years (Leblanc at al.,
1975) (Nguyen, 1976) (Florian, 1976). Other efficient algorithms
based on the restricted simplicial approach have been developed by
Hearn et al. (Lawphongpanich and Hearn, 1982) (Guélat, 1982) or on
an adaptation of the parallel tangents method (PARTAN) (Florian et
al., 1987).

The adaptation of the linear approximation method to solve the user

equilibrium assignment problem requires only the computation of
shortest paths and a one-dimensional minimization of a convex
function. Starting from a feasible solution, the linear approximation
method generates a feasible descent direction (Bazaraa et al, 1993;
Sheffi, 1985) by solving a subproblem that is obtained by linearizing
the objective function. Then, an improved solution is found on the
line segment between the current solution and the solution of the
subproblem. For the UE with fixed demands formulated in (4.9)
where cost functions are separable, the linearized approximation of
the objective function at an intermediate iteration l when the
current solution is v(l), is:

   
S v l  S v l y  v l  (4.10)

Since Sv l  andSv l v l  are constants, the linearized subproblem to
be solved reduces to:

Min   s v   δ
iI kKi aA
a a
l
ak hk

s.t.
(4.11)
h
kKi
k  gi i  I

hk  0 k  K i , i  I

by changing the order of summation in the objective function of

(4.11) and by using (4.4) the objective becomes:

Min   s h
iI kKi
k
l
k (4.12)

As the terms of the objective function (4.12) may be separated now

by O/D pair i, the solution of the linearized subproblem may be
obtained by computing shortest path for each O/D pair i, and
allocating the demand gi to the links of these paths. Such a demand
allocation or assignment is referred to as an “all-or-nothing”
assignment. This yields the arc flow vector:

y al  δ
kKi iI
akhk a  A (4.13)

and the direction of descent is:

79
 
dal  yal  v al  a  A (4.14)

An iteration of the linear approximation algorithm is completed by

finding the solution of


min S v l  λdl
0 λ 1
 (4.15)

or, equivalently, by annulling its derivative, that is, finding , 0 ≤ 

≤ 1, for which

 s v    λd  d   0
aA
a a
l
a
l
a
l
(4.16)

unless the minimum of (4.14) is attained for  = 0 or  = 1.

The main computational advantage of the linear approximation

method is that the paths that are used at each iteration to compute
the descent direction are generated as required and need not be
kept in successive iteration. This the storage requirements do not
increase with the number of iterations. At each iteration only the
flows v(l) and the link costs s(l) need to be kept, in addition to the
network link data.

Since S(v) is a convex function and Sv  sv ,

   
Sv *  S v i  s v i y i  v i ,  i  1,2,....,l (4.17)

The right hand side of (4.17) provides a lower bound on the optimal
values S(v*) at each iteration. The best lower bound obtained up to a
current iteration l is:

    
BLB  max S v i  s v i y i  v i
i1,2,...,l
 (4.18)
Hence a natural stopping criterion, usually denoted as the relative
gap (RGAP) is

RGAP 
 
S v l  BLB
(4.19)
Sv    l
.100

Roughly speaking all these adaptations of the linear approximation

method (LAM) lie in the following algorithmic framework (Florian,
1986; Florian and Hearn, 1995), which is the one used for the Traffic
Assignment function in Aimsun:

STEP 1: Initialisation: Find an initial feasible solution v(1);

s 1  s(v 1 ); l 1.

STEP 2: Solution of the linearized subproblem at iteration l

80
 Min  s  h
iI kKi
k
l
k

s.t. h
kKi
k  g i , i  I

hk  0,k  K i , i  I

where s(l)k is the cost on path k at iteration l. For each O/D pair i the
algorithm finds the shortest path k*i, performs an all-or-nothing
assignment, finds the flows hkl , computes the arc flow vector y(l)
according to (4.12), and the descent direction d(l) = y(l) - v(l)
according to (4.13)

STEP 3: Verify if a predetermined stopping criterion is satisfied (i.e.

RGAP ≤ ε). If it is satisfied, then STOP; otherwise continue to Step 4

STEP 4: Find the optimal step size (l) by solving (4.15)

STEP 5: Update link flows v(l+1) = v(l) + (l)d(l) and costs s(l+1) = s(v(l+1))
Set l = l + 1, and
Return to Step 2.

The slow convergence of the linear approximation method in the

neighbourhood of the optimal solution has led to investigation of
variants of the method, which could improve the rate of
convergence while maintaining the simplicity and computational
advantages of the linear approximations. Two of the most successful
variants are the parallel tangent method (PARTAN) (M. Florian et al.,
1987) and the restricted simplicial decomposition (D. W. Hearn et al.
1987).

9.5 Estimation of O/D Demand Flows using Traffic Counts:

Matrix Adjustment
If information is available about the current traffic flows on a subset
of links of the network, with at least a significant number of links, in
both number and layout, then this information can be used to adjust
the local O/D matrix and get a better representation of the trip
patterns. In other words, we are seeking for methods aimed at
improving the estimates of the current origin-destination demand
flows by combining direct and/or indirect (model) estimators with
other aggregated information related to O/D demand flows
(Cascetta, 2001). In what follows, the aggregate information will be
identified with traffic counts on some links of the transportation
network.

From a certain point of view, the problem of estimating O/D flows

by using traffic counts can be considered as the inverse of the traffic
assignment problem. Traffic assignment problem can be stated as
that of calculating link flows starting from O/D flows, network and

81
choice model. Vice-versa, the problem under study is that of
calculating the O/D flows starting from the measured link flows,
using network and path choice model (see Figure 56).

Estimation of O/D matrices using traffic counts has received

considerable attention in recent years both from the theoretical and
empirical point of view. This can be easily explained given the cost
and complexity of sampling surveys, as well as the lack of precision
related to both direct and model estimators of O/D flows. On the
other hand, link flows (traffic counts) on some subset of network
links are cheap and easily obtainable, often automatically.
Furthermore, in many transportation engineering applications O/D
flow estimates are essentially aimed at predicting traffic flows
derived from changes in the network, and it is expected that a
matrix capable of reproducing accurately enough such aggregates
will give better predictions on the expected impacts of the network
changes.

Figure 56 Relationship between estimation of O/D flows with traffic counts and
traffic assignment (from Cascetta, 2001)

82
In the OD-matrix estimation problem we are interested in finding a
feasible vector (OD-matrix) g, where g = {gi}, iI, consists of the
demands for all O/D pairs. One can assume that the assignment of
the O/D matrix onto the links of the network is made according to
the assignment proportion matrix P = {p ia}, iI, aA, where each
element in the matrix is defined as the proportion of the O/D
demand gi that uses link a. The notation P = P(g) is used to remark
that, in general, these proportions depend on the demand.

When assigned to the network, the O/D matrix induces a flow v =

{va}, aA, on the links in the network. We assume that observed
flows, vˆ  vˆ a , are available for a subset of the links, a  Aˆ  A , and
that a target matrix gˆ  Ω is also available. The generic OD-matrix
estimation problem can now be formulated (Petersson, 2003) as:

MINFg, v   γ 1F1 g, gˆ   γ 2F2 v ,vˆ 

g, v

s.t. p
iI
ia ggi  vˆ a , ˆ
a  A (5.1)

g Ω
The functions F1g,gˆ  and F2 v, vˆ  represent generalized distance
measures between the estimated OD-matrix g and the given target
matrix ĝ , and between the estimated link flows v and the observed
link flows v̂ , respectively.

The parameters 1 and 2 reflect the relative belief (or uncertainty)

in the information contained in ĝ and v̂ ; and the problem can be
interpreted as a two-objective problem. The two objectives are
expressed in F1 and F2, and 1 and 2 are the corresponding weighting
factors.

The set of feasible OD-matrices, , normally consists of the non-

negative OD-matrices, but it can also be restricted to those matrices
within a certain deviation from the target values, i.e.
Ω  g  0 1  αgˆ  g  1  αgˆ , for some suitable parameter  stating the
tolerance level. An analogous formulation can be used to state a
maximum deviation from the link flow observation with a tolerance
 
parameter >0, Ω  g  0 1 βvˆ a  v a  1 βvˆ a ,a  Aˆ .

Another possibility is to restrict the total travel demand in all O/D

pairs originating or terminating at a certain node, which in the four
step model would represent an adjustment of the trip distribution
with respect to the trip generation. In any case all these constraints
on  are linear, or at least convex, and therefore easily handled
from the optimisation point of view.

Obviously, the resulting OD-matrix is dependent on the objective

function minimized in (5.1), that is, on the choice of distance

83
measure. One of the distances initially proposed, probably by
analogy with the trip distribution problem, has been the maximum
entropy function, which in its original form can be formulated as:

F1 g, g
ˆ g logg   1
i i (5.2)
iI

In this extreme formulation, the target matrix has no influence at

all, and the OD-matrix estimation is more a trip distribution
procedure. In a more advanced entropy function, individual weights
are given to each element iI, a case of special interest is that
based on principle of minimum information (van Zuylen and
Willumsen, 1980):

 
F1 g, gˆ    g log gˆ
gi
i  1 (5.3)
iI i 

Another type of measures are based on the maximum likelihood

which maximizes the likelihood of observing the target O/D matrix
and the observed traffic counts conditional on the estimated O/D
matrix. It is assumed that the elements of the target O/D matrix are
obtained as observations of a set of random variables. For a Poisson
distributed system with a sampling factor  the objective measure
can be formulated as:

F1 g, g
ˆ  ρ g gˆ logg 
i i i i (5.4)
iI

F2 can be formulated in similar way as in (5.2) or (5.4).

A type of objective function which is becoming most used in these

models is the one based on the least squares formulation, as for
example:

F2 v ,vˆ    v  vˆ a  (5.5)
2
a
ˆ
aA

which can be weighted using the information on the significance of

each observation, as for instance when the measurements contained
in v̂ are computed as means from a set of observations for each
link, then in this case we can use the variance σ a2 as a measure on
how important each link observation is, and therefore reformulate
(5.5) as:

F2 v ,vˆ    ζ v  vˆ a 
1
2 a
2
(5.6)
ˆ
aA a

84
One disadvantage of the entropy maximising approaches as
formulated in (5.1) lies in the treatment of link flow observation as
constraints, and therefore as error-free (Bell and Iida, 1997). A way
of trying to overcome this disadvantage is using a generalised least
squares approach to provide a framework for allowing for errors
from various sources, the method also yields standard errors for the
trip table, thereby indicating the relative robustness of the fitted
values. The method was first proposed by Cascetta (Cascetta, 1984).

The equivalent optimization problem has the form:

MinFg, v 
g, v
1
2
   2

g  gˆ T X 1 g  gˆ   1 vˆ  P(g)gT Y 1 vˆ  Pgg (5.7)

The inputs are prior estimates of O/D flows, ĝ , link flow

measurements v̂ , variance-covariance matrices from the prior
estimates and from the link flow measurements (X and Y
respectively), and the matrix of link choice proportions P(g). As
variance-covariance matrices are positive definite and the objective
function is convex, the minimum is uniquely given by:

Fg*, v *  X 1 g * gˆ   PT gY 1 vˆ  Pgg * (5.8)

This yields the following linear estimator:


t*  X 1  P T gY 1Pg  X
1
g  P T gY 1vˆ
1 ˆ
 (5.9)

Unlike the maximum entropy model, there is nothing to prevent

negative fitted values for the O/D flows being produced by the
generalized least squares estimator. While negative values would
reflect small real values, they are nonetheless counterintuitive. Bell
(Bell, 1991) has considered the introduction of non-negativity
constraints for the fitted OD-matrix.

It is well known that there are in general many OD-matrices that,

when they are assigned to the network, induce equivalent link flows.
The set of constraints in the generic problem formulation (5.1) to
determine g:

p
iI
ia ggi  vˆ a , ˆ
a  A
(5.10)
g Ω
consists of one equation for every link flow observation, and thus it
is an undetermined equation system as long as the number of O/D
pairs |I|, is greater that the number of link flow observations  ,
and this especially true for large real world networks. Additionally,
the information transferred through the equation system is delimited
by topological dependencies. A basic principle in middling network

85
flows is that for consistent flows the balance equations must hold or,
in other words, the sum of incoming and outgoing flows at any
intermediate node must be zero; a principle that can also be
interpreted in physical terms by Kirchoff‟s law. This means that for
each intersection, at least one link flow is linearly dependent from
the others, what results in a row-wise dependency for the equation
system.

On the other hand the non-zero elements pia(g) are non-zero

because link a is part of one or more shortest paths for O/D pair iI.
However, since every subpath of a shortest path is a shortest path,
every pair of nodes along a certain shortest path, is also connected
through parts of this shortest path and this results in a column-wise
dependency for the equation system.

Thus we can conclude that the equation system (5.10) most likely is
not fully ranked, which further increases the freedom of choice for
the O/D estimation problem, and therefore the way of determining
the pia(g) becomes crucial for the quality of the O/D matrix
estimation model, and this is usually done in terms of how the
assignment matrix P(g) is calculated, and whether it is dependent of
g or not or, in other words, if the route choices are made with
respect to the congestion or not.

If the assignment of the OD-matrix onto the network is independent

of the link flows, that is, if we have an uncongested network, P(g) =
P is a constant matrix. In that case, the first set of constraints in
(5.10) can then be formulated as:
piagi  vˆ a , a  Aˆ
iI
(5.11)

Further, this substitution can be directly performed in the objective,

i.e. in the function F2 v, vˆ  , which reduces the OD-matrix estimation
to a problem in the variable g only. Assuming that the deviation
measures F1 and F2 are convex, and the set of feasible OD-matrices
 is linear, or at least convex, the OD-estimation problem can be
easily solved with some suitable standard algorithm for non-linear
programming, this is the usual approach taken in most cases (van
Zuylen and Willumsen, 1980).

The assumption that the assignment, i.e. the route choice, is

independent of the load on the links, can be assumed realistic only
in a network with a very low congestion rate, or in networks, where
in the practice only one route can be used.

If we assume that the network is congested, and that the routes are
chosen with respect to the current travel times, the route
proportions are dependent of the current traffic situation, which in
turn is dependent of the OD-matrix. Thus, the relationship between
the route proportions P and the OD-matrix g can only be implicitly
defined. The set of feasible solutions to the estimation problem

86
(5.1), is defined as all the points (g,v) where v is the link flow
solution satisfying an assignment of the corresponding demand g,
then the generic OD-matrix estimation problem (5.1), can be
reformulated as a bi-level optimization program in the following
way:

Upper level problem:

MINFg, v   γ 1F1 g, g

ˆ   γ 2F2 v ,vˆ 
g (5.12)
g Ω
in which we want to find the g that minimizes F(g,v) subject to g,
under the hypothesis that the induced link flow v satisfies the
equilibrium assignment conditions obtained by solving the

Lower level problem:

va
v(g) = argmin 
aA
0
s a (x)dx

s.t. h
kK i
k  g i , i  I
(5.11)
hk  0, k  K i , i  I
va   δ
iI kK i
ak h k

The core of the heuristic implemented in Aimsun is an adjustment

method based on a bi-level optimization method (Florian and Chen,
1995; Codina and Barceló, 2004). The algorithm can be viewed as
calculating a sequence of O/D matrices that consecutively reduce
the least squares error between traffic counts coming from
detectors and traffic flows obtained by a traffic assignment. The
estimation of the O/D matrix requires information about the routes
used by the trips contained in the O/D matrix (dij). It requires the
definition of the route and the trip proportions relative to the total
trips dij used on each route originating at zone i and ending at zone
j. This information is really difficult to handle and store in traffic
databases, taking into account that the number of routes connecting
all Origin-Destination pairs on a connected network can grow
exponentially with the size of the network. This is the reason to use
a mathematical programming approach based on a traffic assignment
algorithm, which is solved at each iteration without requiring the
explicit route definition.

The Spiess (Spiess, 1990) bi-level optimization adjustment procedure

solves the following bi-level non-linear optimization problem:

1 
 v(g)a  vˆ a  
 2
Min F(v(g),vˆ ) =
2 ˆ  
aA 

87
 va
v(g) = argmin  s
aA
0
a (x)dx

s.t. h
kK i
k  g i , i  I

h k  0, k  K i , i  I
 h 
va   δ
iI kK i
ak h k  g δ
iI
i
kK i
ak p k ,  p k  k
 gi
, a  A


where va(g) is the flow on link a estimated by the lower level traffic
assignment problem with the adjusted trip matrix g, hk is the flow
on the k-th path for the i-th O-D pair, and v̂ a is the measured flow
on link a. I is the set of all Origin-Destination pairs in the network,
and Ki is the set of paths connecting the i-th O-D pair. sa(va) is the
volume-delay function for link aA. The algorithm used to solve the
problem is heuristic in nature, of steepest descent type, and does
not guarantee that a global optimum to the formulated problem will
be found. The iterative process is as follows:

At iteration k:

- Given a so solution g ki , an equilibrium assignment is solved giving

link flows v ka , and proportions p kia satisfying the relationship  
v ka  p
iI
k k
iagi , a  A

Note: the target matrix is used in the first iteration (i.e.

g1i  gˆ i , i  I )

- The gradient of the objective function F(v(g)) is computed based

on the relative change in the demand, written as:

gˆ i for k = 0

gki+1 =  k  
k   F(g)   for k = 1,2,3,...
g
  1 - λ  
  gi  gki 
i
 

(Then a change in the demand is proportional to the demand in

the initial matrix and zeroes will be preserved in the process).
- The gradient is approximated by

 F(g)
 pk
 g i kK aAˆ  
δ ak (v a  vˆ a ), i  I
i

h
(where Aˆ  A is the subset of links with flow counts and p k  k )
gi
- The step length is approximated as:

88
  v (vˆ  v )
'
a a a
* aAˆ
λ 
v '2
a
aAˆ
where
  
v 'a    g   p  δ
i k ak (v a  vˆ a ) 
 δ ak p k 

iI  kKi aAˆ  kKi 

To ensure the convergence the step length must satisfy the

condition:

Fg
λ* 1 i
g i
If the condition is violated for some i then the step length must be
bounded accordingly:

 Fg 
 
Fg  gi 
If i : λ *  1 then λ  λ , i
gi  1.2 MAX λ Fg  
 i    
  g i  

9.6 Heuristic approaches for estimating time dependent O/D

matrices: time slicing the global O/D matrix
A time dependent O/D Matrix is an input requisite for any dynamic
approach to traffic modeling, and in particular it is the expected
input to a microscopic simulator, as the appropriate way of modeling
the time variability of traffic demand; the main problem then is how
to estimate these time dependent O/D matrices to properly reflect
the time variations of the demand patterns that give origin to the
time variations of traffic flow in dynamic models. Two types of
approaches have been proposed: Analytical models based on Kalman
filtering or similar approaches (Nihan and Davis, 1989; Chang and
Wu, 1994; Van der Zijp and R. Hamerslag, 1996), and heuristic
approaches splitting a static O/D matrix from a classical transport
planning study into time slices for shorter time intervals, and
adjusting these time sliced O/D matrices using the flow counts on a
subset of links of the road network for the corresponding time
interval.

The Kalman filtering approaches for the estimation of time

dependent O/D matrices are valid only for very small networks or for
motorway corridors. The question then is: What can be done for
more complex network structures? Up to now, no sound analytical
procedures are known; this is still an open research topic. From a
practical point of view what we propose is a heuristic approximate
procedure based on empirical grounds, providing acceptable useful
estimates. Common data from transport studies is global O/D
matrices from large areas and complementary data about traffic

89
characteristics during the day. The heuristic consists of the
following steps:

1. Starting from a global O/D matrix for the whole region for a
time horizon T (i.e. the whole day, the peak morning hour,
etc.) use additional information on time distribution of trips
to generate a set of O/D matrices, O/Di for the n smaller time
intervals i = 1, …,n (i.e. for example for intervals of 30
minutes) in which the time horizon has been split, for
example O/Di = i O/D, where i represents the % of trips
done in the i-th time interval.
2. Let O/Di be the O/D matrix for the i-th time interval, and via,
aÂA the link volume measured on link a on the i-th time
interval, where  is the subset of links with traffic detectors,
then adjust the O/Di from the observed flows for that time
interval to estimate the matrix O / Di that will be input to
Aimsun for the dynamic simulation.

Figure 57 illustrates graphically the main concepts of this process.

The graph on the left corresponds to the typical view of a global O/D
matrix as used in traffic assignment. It represents a total number of
trips over a time horizon T with an underlying homogeneous
behavior. The graph on the right represents the time variation of the
demand. The total number of trips remains constant but they do not
behave homogeneously. This representation corresponds to a
discretization of the global O/D matrix in which the time horizon T
has been partitioned into smaller time intervals, and each
component of the histogram corresponds to the number of trips for
the corresponding interval.

Figure 57 Time Slicing a global O/D Matrix

90
9.7 Estimation of the traversal O/D matrix
To simulate the traffic flows on the sub-network corresponding to
the selected scenario for the current period of time, one of the
basic data inputs required is the local O/D matrix for the scenario
for that period of time.

9.7.1 Definition of a sub-network

The window containing the subnetwork object of study is defined by
the analyst using a graphic editor of polygons; the basic input
defining a sub-network graphically is a set of closed polygonal lines
that define a connected area. Just by identifying which nodes fall
inside the Problem Network then the elements making up the sub-
network can be derived. The rules to prepare the Problem Network
for the automatic calculation of the traversal O/D matrix, illustrated
in Figure 58, are the following:

The sections of the sub-network must be the sections of the global

area that have their starting node and /or their ending node with
coordinates lying in the interior of the region that defines the
Problem Network. All the attributes of the sections in the sub-
network are inherited from the corresponding ones in the global
area. The nodes of the sub-network model are those with
coordinates lying in the Problem Network. The sections of the sub-
network that have the starting node with coordinates in the Problem
Network and the ending node outside it define an exit from the sub-
network. The sections of the sub-network that have the ending node
with coordinates in the Problem Network and the starting node
outside it define an entry to the sub-network.

The centroids of the sub-network are defined by the sections of the

global network model with either the starting node or the ending
node inside the Problem Network, and also by centroids of the global
network with at least a connector attached to a node with
coordinates lying in the Problem Network. If all the connectors of
the centroid have attachment points lying in the Problem Network
then, the centroid must be considered as a centroid fully interior to
the Problem Network. In this case, a new centroid is generated for
each of the attachments (see, in Figure 58, centroid 23, which
corresponds to centroids 23a, b and c). Otherwise, i.e. if there are
connectors with attachments not in the Problem Network, then new
centroids are defined only for the attachments to sections or nodes
inside the Problem Network (see, in Figure 58, centroid number 21,
which corresponds to gate number 17 and 18 in the sub-network
model).

91
 Figure 58 Centroid Configuration for a sub-network

There cannot be duplicates in numbering the gates of a sub-network

model. Gates are attached to the corresponding starting or ending
nodes of physical sections by means of connectors.

9.7.2 Estimation of the traversal O/D Matrix for the selected scenario
The local O/D matrix for the scenario for that period of time
contains the number of trips tij between each origin i and each
destination j for each time period. There will be two types of origins
and destinations: the ones that lay in the borders of the area
spanned by the network, corresponding to the input and output
gates defined by the border of the sub-network, and the ones
located inside the area defined by the sub-network. This is the
situation schematized in Figure 59 explained below.

Given an O/D matrix for the whole area and a sub-network, the
procedure to calculate the traversal consists in calculating the
traversal O/D flows between gates defined by the border of the sub-
network, in addition to the flows corresponding to the inner
centroids, that is, it extracts from the global O/D matrix the sub-
matrix corresponding to the selected sub-network. This sub-network
defines the scenario selected by the operator, where the traffic
conflicts have been identified.

The so-called traversal matrix is the local O/D matrix for the shaded
area inside the rectangle in Figure 59, corresponding to a sub-
network of the road network for the whole area. The traversal
matrix is composed by the original Origins and Destinations in the
area plus some extra origins and destinations generated from the
input and output gates of the flows into, from and through the area.

92
In Figure 59, I/Oi and I/Oj correspond to the i-th and j-th
input/output gates, which then generate the new centroids,
corresponding to the flows from centroid r to centroid s crossing the
area. Ik is the k-th input gate for the flows with origin at centroid p,
outside the area, that finish the trip inside the area, and O n the n-th
output gate, for flows generated at a centroid inside the area that
leaving the area through this output gate and finish the trip in
centroid q outside the area.

The generation of traversal matrices is a standard procedure in

Aimsun. After defining the Problem Network graphically (red dotted
window), the Traversal generation algorithm is invoked, as depicted
in Figure 60, activating the corresponding dialogue. In Figure 61
some of the centroids automatically generated by the procedure of
the sub-network definition are also depicted.
MACRO LEVEL
(GLOBAL NETWORK)

I/Oi I/Oj

s
r

Ik On
q
p

MICRO LEVEL
(SUBNETWORK)
AIMSUN2 MODEL

Figure 59 Traversal O/D Matrix for a subarea

93
 Figure 60 Calling the Traversal Generation command

Figure 61 Examples of centroids for the in and out gates of the Problem
Network

94
 The procedure starts by establishing the correspondence between
gates and zones. The links considered as in-gates are all the
outgoing connectors from the centroids located in the selected
scenario, as well as all the links that enter the scenario boundaries.
The links considered as out-gates are all the incoming connectors to
the centroids located in the scenario, as well as all the links that
exit the scenario boundaries. All the streets that cross the scenario
boundary are assigned centroid numbers and are defined as
directional gates. The utilities implemented in Aimsun perform all
these functions automatically for the Problem Network under study
once it has been graphically defined as described.

9.8 Validation
As usual in any type of modelling, model validation is the key
process to decide on the acceptability of the model results and their
ability to suitably answer the “what if” questions that the analyst
tries to answer through the transportation study.

In the case of a transport planning study, assuming that the network

model is essentially correct, i.e. the geometry is appropriately
represented, all existing movements have been included, the
network model is connected and consistent, and the demand in
terms of the O/D matrix for the time period object of the study is
acceptably correct; the validation of the model essentially consist of
determining how close the traffic volumes on the links predicted by
the model are to the observed ones.

As has been described in section User Equilibrium Fixed Demand

Models, the traffic assignment model used in Aimsun is formulated
as:
va
Min Sv   
aA
0
sa (x)dx

s.t. h
kK i
k  gi , i  
(8.1)
hk  0, k  Ki , i  
va   δ
i kK i
ak hk , a  A

and is solved by an ad hoc version of the Linear Approximation

Method. The key component in this process are the volume-delay, or
link cost functions, sa(va) that model the travel time on the link as a
function of the traffic volume on the link, modelling in this way the
congestion effects. Many alternative forms have been proposed for
the volume delay functions, from the BPR seminal one:

 v 
βa 
s a v a   t 0 1  α a  a   (8.2)
  ca  
 

95
where va is the volume on link a, t0 is the free-flow time, and a and
a are calibration parameters of the function for link a, to more
sophisticated, like those proposed by Florian (Florian and Nguyen,
1976):

 1 
  2  v a  2
2
  va 
s a v a   da δ  α  γ   α   γ   β   (8.3)
 
  a
l    a l   
 

where da is the length of the link, la the number of lanes of the link
and , ,  and  are constants whose values are determined by the
calibration of the model.

The most common way of verifying the concordance between the

predicted volumes and the observed volumes is in terms of
regression analysis. Aimsun provides the analyst with utilities to
conduct model validations at this level. Figure 62 depicts an
example of how this utility works, it displays a plot of the
scattergram of predicted versus observed volumes, the regression
line and the 95% confidence band, as well as the value of the R 2
coefficient.

Figure 62 Scattergram of predicted vs. observed values, regression line and R2

coefficient

96
9.9 Methodological notes on combining macroscopic with
microscopic analysis
Traffic assignment models based on the user equilibrium approach
are one of the most widely used tools in transportation planning
analysis. All the modelling hypotheses lead to nice mathematical
models, described in the previous section, for which there are
efficient algorithms that provide solutions in terms of the expected
flows on network links. Modelled flows offer a static average view of
the expected use of the road infrastructure under the modelling
hypothesis. This information has usually been sufficient for planning
decisions. However, the evolution of advanced technologies and
their application to modern traffic management systems require in
most cases a dynamic view complementing the static estimates
provided by the assignment tools. The planned infrastructure is
probably sufficient for average demand, but time-varying traffic
flows, i.e. at peak periods, combined with the influence of road
geometry, can produce undesired congestion that cannot be
forecasted or analyzed with the static tools. The appropriate
analysis of these situations clearly asks for a change in the analysis
methodology: the combination of traffic assignment model, with a
microscopic traffic simulator.

The convenience of interfacing a macroscopic approach for

transportation modelling based on traffic assignment models, and a
microscopic approach, as implemented in the microsimulator
Aimsun, was already identified by many practitioners some time ago
(Montero et al. 2001).

There is another type of situation in which a dialogue between a

microscopic and a macroscopic approach may be desirable.
Microscopic simulation can admit two types of input; the more
classical one, described above, models traffic flows at model-input
sections and turning proportions at the intersections but current
trends in microscopic modelling allow the input to be defined in
terms of a time-sliced origin-destination matrix. Time-sliced origin-
destination matrices are usually very difficult to obtain and quite
often analysts must resort to heuristic procedures to adjust matrices
and use measured flows for different time intervals. The most
technically appealing of these adjustment procedures are based on
bi-level optimization approaches that solve a traffic assignment
problem at an intermediate stage. The outcome of the adjustment
procedure becomes the input to the microscopic model. A direct
communication between a transport planning model able to perform
a matrix adjustment with the link measured flows for each time
interval, and the microscopic simulator, makes the input task easier
and error-free. A microscopic route based simulation in which
vehicles follow time changing paths from origins to destinations can
be used to get a deeper insight of the performance of a planned

97
infrastructure, complementing in that way the estimations of a
classical planning exercise based only on traffic assignment.

There are also other reasons for requiring such an interface. In the
case of a typical microscopic simulation input data consist mainly of
traffic flows defined at input sections in the model, and turning
proportions for emulating the behaviour at intersections. Quite
frequently not all input flows and turning proportions are available
due to lack of the corresponding measurements. The result of a
calibrated assignment model can in this case provide default values
for these missing measurements. A direct communication between a
transport planning model and the microscopic simulator would
provide the user with a friendly tool to overcome the cumbersome
task of manually inputting the data.

From a methodological point of view a key issue is to ensure the

consistency between the network representations at the macro and
micro levels, and that the same Origin-Destination matrix is used in
both approaches. A way of satisfying accurately this requirement has
been to use a model building tool that automatically translates the
network representation at the disaggregate level, that of the
microscopic view, into the aggregate level of the macroscopic view
(Montero et al. 2001).

The architecture implemented in Aimsun provides a more elegant

and efficient solution to the consistency problem as far as it is not
based on a file exchange but on sharing the same data base. The
implementation of the proposed analysis methodology combining
macro and micro models in Aimsun is supported by the main
component of its architecture, the Extensible Object Model and the
associated Database shared by all traffic and transport analysis
models implemented as components in Aimsun. This allows a Multi-
level Network representation in which the communication between
the macro and the micro level is not based on file exchange, as in
the case of the interfaces, but on sharing the same database, and
therefore in the capability of working simultaneously with both
representations, as depicted in Figure 63, or moving smoothly from
one level to next.

98
 Figure 63 Left: Macro level representation. Right: Micro level representation
showing network details

The combination macro-micro allows the analyst:

 to refine the inputs for the microscopic simulation
o estimating the demand for future scenarios by means of
the growing factor analysis and matrix balancing
procedures.
o adjusting the global O/D matrix from the available traffic
counts on a subset of links.
 to start the analysis at the macro level for a large urban or
metropolitan area and refine the analysis at the micro level
conducting detailed microscopic simulation experiments of
selected subareas.
o defining interactively the window spanning the selected
subarea
o calculating the corresponding traversal matrix
o adjusting the traversal from traffic counts of links in the
network spanning the subarea
o running the simulation experiments for the subarea model

99
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