Mississippi Fact Sheet

Population Growth, Millennials, Brain Drain,

and the Economy

A Report to the Governor

Dr. Mimmo Parisi

Professor of Demography
Department of Sociology
Mississippi State University

January 19, 2018

2017 Population Growth by the Numbers
Population growth depends on
multiple factors that includes
Population Growth = (Births-Deaths) + (Net Domestic Migration + Net numbers of births and deaths, net
domestic migration, and net
International Migration) international migration. How each
factor contributes to population
Population Growth = (37,373 – 30,875) + (-9,885 + 2,087) growth must be seen in relation to
the others. All factors must be
Population Growth = 6,498 – 7,798 examined together to provide an
accurate picture of any population
estimate. Also, all factors must be
Population Growth = -1,300 seen in the context of national
trends to fully understand the
magnitude of their impact on a
given state. The estimates
presented in the following slides
provide detailed information on
each factor that contributes to
population growth, along with
information on millennials, brain
drain, and overall state economic
indicators.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/
3
 Mississippi Population, 2000-2017
The estimates for 2016 and 2017 indicate that the population declined by
1,300. This decline is within the estimation margin of error and it will be revised
next year, therefore this number needs to be interpreted cautiously. It also
means that there has been no substantive decline in total population. The only
conclusion one can draw from these estimates is that the Mississippi total
3,000,000
population has remained fairly stable. 2,982,963
2,988,578 2,985,415

2,970,437 2,987,721 2,985,297

2,984,115
2,977,452
2,947,806
2,950,000 2,958,774

2,928,350
2,904,978

2,900,000 2,889,010
2,905,943
Population

2,858,681 This begs the question: why is the population not growing? The answer lies in two
2,848,353 2,868,312 important factors. First, the state experienced a dramatic decline in births as a
2,850,000 result of aggressive policies to reduce teenage pregnancy. These numbers are
2,852,994
reported in slides 5-7. The population is also not growing because Mississippi is not
a new Hispanic destination. In fact, the state experienced the least positive net
international migration. These numbers are reported in slides 9-12. If Mississippi
had not experienced a reduction in numbers of births and had experienced the
2,800,000
same level of international in-migration as other states, Mississippi’s total
population would have continued to grow. Another key factor is that only a few
counties experience a significant negative net domestic migration (see slide 12).

2,750,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.
https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 4
Births by the Numbers
 Annual Number of Births, 2011-2017
40,000
39,746
39,500 39,430

39,000
38,715
38,578
38,500
38,505

38,000 37,951

37,373
37,500
Overall Decline: -2,373
37,000

36,500

36,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year

An important factor that needs to be accounted for in the population growth is the number of births. Mississippi
experienced a declining annual number of births. As a result, Mississippi’s total population would have had a net
positive growth if the number of births would have remained the same since 2011. Other indicators suggest that the
decline in birth stems primarily from a strong policy to reduce teen pregnancy. These numbers are presented in the
next two slides.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popest/state-total.html
6
 Mississippi Teenage Pregnancy Rate
5.00

4.50 4.30
4.10 4.07 4.06
3.89 3.82 3.90
4.00 3.63 3.64 3.55
3.34
Teenage Pregnancy Rate

3.50
3.01
3.00 2.74
2.52
2.50 2.25
2.03
1.92
2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year

Compared to the nation, Mississippi experienced one of the fastest reductions in teenage pregnancy. The teen
pregnancy rate declined by 361 percent since 2000.

Source: Mississippi State Department of Health, Vital Statistics Bureau, 2017.

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/31,0,75.html
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Birth Events of Female Mississippi Public School Students
in Grades 6-12 by Abstinence Education Curriculum Type
4.00

3.50 3.37
Percent That Experienced Birth Event

3.00

2.50
Statewide: 1.9
2.00
1.68 1.77

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
Abstinence-only Abstinence-plus No abstinence education
Curriculum Type

Mississippi has adopted an aggressive abstinence program by providing two types of curriculum. Official statistics
from the Department of Health show that these programs had a significant impact on reducing teen pregnancy in the
K12 system.

Source: Mississippi LifeTracks, 2016.

https://www.lifetracks.ms.gov/RequestAnalysis/ResearchStudies.aspx 8
Migration by the Numbers
 Net Domestic Migration, 2016-2017
Florida 160,854
Texas 79,163
North Carolina 66,051
Washington 64,579
Arizona 63,111
South Carolina 49,015
Georgia 41,107
Tennessee 40,232
Nevada 38,227
Oregon 37,975
Colorado 36,653
Idaho 24,597
Utah 17,568
Montana 8,666
Minnesota 7,941
Maine 5,376 Mississippi is not the only
Arkansas 4,718
New Hampshire 4,687 state to have a negative net
Delaware 4,484
Alabama 3,840 domestic migration. There are
South Dakota 1,976
District of Columbia 1,152 27 states that have
Kentucky 1,024
Vermont -918 experienced negative net
Indiana -976
State

Missouri -1,050 domestic migration, and

Wisconsin -2,086
Iowa -2,724 Mississippi does not have one
Nebraska -3,493
Rhode Island -3,854 of the largest declines. The
North Dakota -6,653
New Mexico
Ohio
-7,437
-8,205
takeaway from this graph is
Wyoming
Mississippi
-8,613
-9,885
that Mississippi is in line with
Alaska
Oklahoma
-9,938 national trends.
-10,470
West Virginia -10,507
Virginia -12,395
Michigan -12,698
Hawaii -13,537
Kansas -14,150
Connecticut -22,270
Massachusetts -23,089
Maryland -23,984
Pennsylvania -25,793
Louisiana -27,515
New Jersey -57,274
Illinois -114,779
California -138,195
New York -190,508
-250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
Domestic Migration

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 10
Net International Migration, 2016-2017
California 164,867
Florida 144,165
New York 130,411
Texas 110,417
New Jersey 56,942
Massachusetts 45,298
Pennsylvania 37,389
Illinois 33,699
Virginia 33,365
Maryland 29,031
Washington 25,984
Georgia 25,870
Michigan 23,179
Ohio 22,131
North Carolina 20,162
Connecticut 17,758
Minnesota 16,460
Arizona 16,205
Indiana 11,410 Negative domestic migration
Tennessee 10,469
Colorado
Wisconsin
9,973
8,268
is typically counterbalanced by
Missouri
Nevada
8,076 international migration, which
7,957
Oregon 7,712 is mostly comprised of Asians
State

Louisiana 7,696
Oklahoma 7,322 and Hispanics. Unlike other
Kentucky 7,014
Iowa 6,836 states, Mississippi is not a
Hawaii 6,703
Kansas 6,198 new Hispanic destination. The
South Carolina 5,447
Utah 5,019 state ranks as one of the
Nebraska 4,853
Rhode Island 4,798 lowest in the country.
Alabama 4,475
District of Columbia 4,160
Arkansas 3,499
New Mexico 2,771
Delaware 2,722
New Hampshire 2,236
Mississippi 2,087
Idaho 1,928
Maine 1,578
Alaska 1,557
North Dakota 1,489
South Dakota 1,273
Vermont 933
West Virginia 867
Wyoming 328
Montana 296
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000
International Migration
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.
https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 11
 Domestic Migration: Gain and Loss to Other States
2016-2017
Moving To Mississippi Moving out of Mississippi

Mississippi Population Net Gain

Mississippi also experienced a
or Loss to Other States
Like other states, Mississippi gains positive net migration from 11
and loses population to other states states. More people came to
in the union. The migration flow is Mississippi from Illinois, Louisiana
not unidirectional, where people Michigan, New York, and West
simply leave, but rather bidirectional, Virginia than residents moving from
where some move out and some Mississippi to each of these states.
move in. These flows are reported in
the top two maps, and clearly In contrast, 70 percent of the total
suggest that many people see negative net migration resulted
Mississippi as a place to live and from more people moving from
work. Mississippi to Texas, Florida,
Georgia, and Alabama, than
residents from these states moving
Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data – 2015-2016.
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/1516ms.xls
to Mississippi .
12
Who Gains and Who Loses in Mississippi, 2016-2017
Moving from Other States Moving Out of MS Counties
to MS Counties To Other States

Mississippi County Population

Net Gain or Loss to Other States

Each county experienced residents moving

in from other states, but also residents 87 percent of the total population loss in
moving out to other states. Migration flows the state comes from a few counties, with
are state processes that touch all of the Hinds county experiencing the largest loss
counties in the state, with some gaining followed by Lauderdale, Oktibbeha,
and some losing population. Eight Forrest, Washington, Harrison, and
counties have gained population, with Lowndes counties.
Desoto, Hancock, and Pearl River counties
experiencing the largest gains.

Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data – 2015-2016.
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/1516ms.xls
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Millennials by the Numbers
Share of Millennials (Ages 16-35) in State Population
District of Columbia 37.8
Utah 30.6
North Dakota 30.1
Alaska 29.0
Texas 28.7
California 28.7
Colorado 28.5
New York 28.0
Massachusetts 28.0
Rhode Island 27.9
Louisiana 27.9
Oklahoma 27.5
Washington 27.4
Georgia 27.4
Illinois 27.3
Nebraska 27.2
Kansas 27.2
Nation 27.1
Wyoming 27.0
Mississippi 27.0 When we look at the total
Indiana 27.0
Arizona 27.0 share of the millennial
Virginia 26.9
Oregon 26.8 population, Mississippi is
Nevada 26.8
right on the national
State

Iowa 26.8
New Mexico 26.7
Minnesota 26.7 average, suggesting that
Maryland 26.7 the state’s millennial
Missouri 26.6
Idaho 26.6 population is stable.
Arkansas 26.5
Tennessee 26.4
South Dakota 26.4
Alabama 26.4
Michigan 26.3
Wisconsin 26.2
Kentucky 26.2
Pennsylvania 26.1
Ohio 26.1
Vermont 26.0
South Carolina 26.0
North Carolina 26.0
Connecticut 26.0
Delaware 25.9
Montana 25.8
New Jersey 25.7
Hawaii 25.4
New Hampshire 25.2
Florida 24.9
West Virginia 24.4
Maine 23.6
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
Percent
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017
https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t 15
 Millennials, Generation X, and Baby Boomers
Millennials (17-35)
Generation X (35-50) with their Children
0%
Source: American Community Survey, 2017.
Estimates on migration flow
from the American
Community Survey indicate
that millennials have the
least negative net
outmigration in the state.
18% This is consistent with
current literature suggesting
that millennials are not as
mobile as other generations.
The estimates from the
American Community Survey
indicate that the largest
negative net outmigration in
the state are experienced by
people in the age group of
82%
35-50, commonly known as
Generation X. Estimates
from the American
Community Survey also
indicate that baby boomers
experience a positive net in
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% migration, suggesting that
this age group are growing in
the state.
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College Educated Millennials Leaving State of Residence
Alaska 23%
District of Columbia 18%
Wyoming 16%
Idaho 15%
Vermont 14%
North Dakota 14%
Rhode Island 14%
Montana 13%
New Hampshire 13%
Utah 12%
New Mexico 11%
Hawaii 11%
Virginia 11%
South Dakota 11%
Nevada 11%
Iowa 11%
Connecticut 11%
Delaware 11%
Kansas 10% Estimates from the American
Maine 10%
South Carolina 10% Community Survey indicate that
Nation 10%
Mississippi 10% Mississippi, like the rest of the
Indiana 10% nation, experiences a 10 percent
Maryland 10%
State

West Virginia 10%

Missouri 10% outmigration of college educated
Oregon 9% millennials. Mississippi
Alabama 9%
Wisconsin 9% population patterns for its
Oklahoma 9%
Nebraska 9% millennials are no different than
North Carolina 9%
Colorado 9% the national trends.
Georgia 9%
Kentucky 9%
Arizona 8%
Massachusetts 8%
Pennsylvania 8%
Arkansas 8%
Michigan 8%
New Jersey 8%
Tennessee 8%
Washington 7%
Ohio 7%
Florida 7%
Illinois 7%
Minnesota 7%
New York 6%
Louisiana 6%
Texas 5%
California 4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Percent

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017.

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t 17
Brain Drain by the Numbers
Students Working in Mississippi Within 1 Year
of Graduating A large majority of our students in
the two and four year college
systems choose to live and work in
the state. In contrast, a very small
90% number of our in-state students
choose to live and work in the
81%
80% 78% state. This is consistent with the
74% estimates on migration patterns
69% reported by the American
70%
Community Survey. The state
experienced a average annual net
60% growth of more than 4,000
Percent Employed

individuals aged 18-19. The

50% American Community survey also
indicates that this net gain is
40% counterbalanced by the loss of
these students once they
30% graduate.

19%
20%

10%

0%
Community College Community College Community College University In-State University Out-of-State
Associate of Arts Associate of Applied Certificate
Science

Source: Institutions of Higher Learning Study, 2017; Mississippi State Longitudinal

Data System, 2017. 19
In-State and Out-of-State Enrollment Growth
70,000

65,000

60,000

55,000
50,000

45,000
40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000
5,000

0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

In-State Out-of-State

Over the last 10 years, the number of out-of-state students has grown at a faster rate than in-state students.

Source: Institutions of Higher Learning Study, 2017; Mississippi State

Longitudinal Data System, 2017.
20
Out-of-State Enrollment at Mississippi IHL Universities

UM 44.38

MSU 33.64

ASU 24.24
This graph reports percentage
JSU 23.39
of university total enrollment
made up of out-of-state
students. Ole Miss and
MVSU 22.81
Mississippi State are the
universities that attract more
USM 20.88 out-of-state students.

DSU 17.17

UMMC 15.25

MUW 14.75

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00
Percent

Source: Institutions of Higher Learning Study, 2017; Mississippi State Longitudinal

Data System, 2017. 21
Economic Indicators by the Numbers
 Annual Covered Employment, 2000-2017
1,150,000

1,140,000 1,136,706 1,135,336

1,128,924
1,130,000 1,122,474
1,131,096
1,120,000 1,114,379 1,124,854

1,110,000 1,104,225 1,105,915

1,111,255 1,111,269
1,100,000 1,093,581
Jobs

1,102,603
1,081,138
1,090,000 1,096,802

1,080,000 1,076,488
1,085,748

1,070,000
1,074,617
1,060,000

1,050,000

1,040,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year

Estimates from BLS indicate that the number of people employed is reaching pre-recession numbers. The state is only
6,400 shy of pre-recession numbers. Typically, the state enters recessions one year later, and the recovery is also
delayed one year relative to the national trends. As a result, the number employed is expected to grow for the next few
years.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2017.
https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv
23
 Average Annual Wages Adjusted for Inflation
(Constant 2017 Dollars)

$42,000
Average Annual Pay (2017 Dollars)

$41,000 $40,532

$40,000 $39,518 $39,706$39,659

$39,327
$39,134 $39,071$39,153$39,018$39,026$39,111
$38,779
$39,000 $38,475
$37,983
$38,000 $37,434
$37,117
$36,788
$37,000 $36,497

$36,000

$35,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year

Estimates from BLS indicate that wages, adjusted for inflation, have grown over the last 17 years. These estimates are
based on 2017 constant dollars.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2017.
https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv
24
 Mississippi General Fund Contributions
Individual Income Tax Sales Tax
$1,900,000,000 $2,100,000,000

$1,800,000,000 $2,050,000,000

$2,000,000,000
$1,700,000,000
$1,950,000,000
$1,600,000,000
General Fund Dollars

General Fund Dollars

$1,900,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$1,850,000,000
$1,400,000,000
$1,800,000,000
$1,300,000,000
$1,750,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,700,000,000

$1,100,000,000 $1,650,000,000

$1,000,000,000 $1,600,000,000
06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
Year Year

Contributions of income and sales tax to the general fund have experienced upward trends over the last 10
years. Individual income tax has shown an increase in tax payers, and the increase in sales tax shows an increase in
disposable income as the result of real wage increases.

Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue, 2017.

http://www.dor.ms.gov/Statistics/Pages/default.aspx
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