Elections Guide 2018 B

Macro Research
2018 Elections Guide
January 2018
Index
01 Rules of the game and electoral timeline.
02 Who is the Brazilian voter?
03 The previous election.
04 Who are the possible candidates?
05 The polls
5.1. Datafolha poll tracker
Macro Research • 2
1. Rules of the game and electoral
timeline
Rules of the Game
 First round will be on October 7. A candidate wins if he/she has more than 50% of valid
votes (total, excluding blank and null).
 Otherwise, the two best voted will go to a run-off on October 28. The most voted wins.
 Voting is compulsory between ages 18 and 70.
 Voting is optional for illiterate citizens, and for those 16, 17 and 70+ years old.
 All ballots are electronic.
 Paid advertisement is forbidden. All candidates will have a specified time on publicly
sponsored TV and radio electoral programs. Distribution of time between them will be
proportional to the size of each candidate’s supporting coalition.
 TV and radio debates are allowed.
 Candidates may resign and be replaced during the campaign – up to 60 days before
the first round.
Source: Constitution, Electoral Code , TSE – Superior Electoral Court
TV and Radio Electoral Programs
As elected Share in
Parties * %
in 2014 Minutes
TOTAL 513 100% 22.5
PT 69 13% 3.0
 The first round TV and Radio programs will run from MDB
PSDB
65
54
13%
11%
2.9
2.4
August 31 to October 4 in 2 formats: PP 38 7% 1.7
PSD 36 7% 1.6
• A 25-min program aired three times a week, twice per day. PR 34 7% 1.5
PSB 34 7% 1.5
• Smaller daily insertions distributed throughout the PTB 25 5% 1.1
programming. DEM 21 4% 0.9
PRB 21 4% 0.9
o 10% of the time will be equally divided among PDT 20 4% 0.9
candidates and 90% allotted proportionally to the SD 15 3% 0.7
candidate’s coalition in the Lower House. PSC 13 3% 0.6
PROS 11 2% 0.5
PPS 10 2% 0.4
PCdoB 10 2% 0.4
 In an eventual 2nd round, the time would be equally PV 8 2% 0.4
distributed between the two candidates. PHS 5 1% 0.2
PSOL 5 1% 0.2
• Each presidential candidate will have 5 minutes in a 10- PODEMOS 4 1% 0.2
minute program ran daily, twice a day PATRIOTAS 2 0% 0.1
PTdoB 1 0% 0.0
PSL 1 0% 0.0
REDE 0 0% 0.0
Others 11 2% 0.5
Source: Law 9.504 / 1997 * Highlighted in gray : Political parties containing the
main potential candidates for the presidential race.
The political reform
Summary of changes introduced by the political reform

Previous rules Rules in 2018 Rules in 2020
(i) 1.5% of total valid votes (increasing by 0.5 p.p. in
(i) 1.5% of total valid votes each presidential election until 3% in 2030)
Minimum performance for parties' (ii) 1% of the votes in at least nine states (ii) 1% of the votes in at least nine states (1.5% in 2026
access to public funds and advertising None OR and 2.0% in 2030)
time on radio and TV (iii) elected at least nine congressmen in at OR
least nine states (iii) elected at least nine congressmen in at least nine
states (increasing 2 per year until 15 in 2030)
Chair distribution depends on Chair distribution depends on the parties Chair distribution depends on the votes of a single
Coalitions
the parties coalitions votes coalitions votes party
Private by individuals
Private by individuals
Public with resources foreseen in the budget Private by individuals
(Private by companies were
Campaign funding (30% of politicians amendments or BRL 1.4 Public with resources foreseen in the budget
prohibited by the Supreme
bln in 2018) Spending ceiling for campaigns
Court in 2015)
Spending ceiling for campaigns
Electoral system Proportional with open list No changes were approved No changes were approved
Source: Itaú, Lower House, Senate
Electoral Timeline
April July/August October

2018
April 2 From July 20 to October 4
• Deadline for party August 5 • TV & radio
enrollment. • Political conventions campaign ends.
to determine party
April 7 candidates and October 7
• Deadline for those alliances. • First Round of the
holding executive Elections.
positions, not August 15
running for re- • Deadline for the October 12-26
election, to resign in party and affiliates • TV & radio
order to run for to register campaign for the
office. candidates. Second Round.
August 16 October 28
• Campaign begins. • Second Round of
the Elections.
August 31
• TV & radio
campaign begins.
Source: TSE – Superior Electoral Court
2. Who is the Brazilian voter?
Brazilian voter profile
Age % of Total Occupation % of Total
16-24 years old 22 Economic Active Population 72
25-34 years old 23 Non - Economic Active Population 28
35-44 years old 19
45-59 years old 22 Education % of Total
60 years old or more 15 Basic 33
High School 45
Region % of Total University Degree 21
Southeast 43
South 15 Average Income % of Total
Northeast 27 up to 2 minimum wages 43
Center West 8 2 - 5 minimum wages 39
North 8 5 - 10 minimum wages 11
10 or more minimum wages 4
Municipality Geography % of Total
Capital 43 Average Voter (% Total)
Countryside 57
11 4
Gender % of Total
Male 48
Female 52
82
Municipality Size % of Total
up to 50k inhabitants 30
50 - 200k inhabitants 22
200 - 500k inhabitants 16
up to 5 minimum wages 5 - 10 minimum wages
More than 500k inhabitants 33
10 or more minimum wages
Source: Datafolha 27-28 September
How Brazilians think about economics , behavior and the country?
Opinion Questions (% that agree with the propositions)

Homosexuality should be Belief in God makes people
Average Income Guns legalization Prohibition of drug use
accepted better
up to 2 minimum wages 39 85 72 89
2 - 5 minimum wages 46 78 75 80
5 - 10 minimum wages 45 75 80 74
10 or more minimum wages 48 71 80 66
Total 43 80 74 83
Economic Questions (% that agree with the propositions)
Labor laws protect more Government should be the

Cause of poverty is Sindicates do not really
Average Income workers more than they main responsible for
lack of opportunity defend in fact the worker*
hurt companies investment and growth
up to 2 minimum wages 80 52 51 76
2 - 5 minimum wages 77 63 55 77
5 - 10 minimum wages 68 65 54 71
10 or more minimum wages 63 74 46 67
Total 77 58 53 76
Main Problems of the country (%)

Average Income Corruption Health Unemployment Violence Education
up to 2 minimum wages 23 21 22 6 4
2 - 5 minimum wages 38 15 12 7 7
5 - 10 minimum wages 48 9 9 5 8
10 or more minimum wages 49 9 6 8 12
Total 32 17 16 6 6
Source: Datafolha - Behavior Poll / July
The Brazilian territory
Roraima
Amapá
Amazonas Rio
Pará
Maranhão Grande
Ceará
do Norte
Paraíba
Piauí
Pernanbuco
Acre Alagoas
Tocantins
Rondônia Sergipe
Bahia
Mato Grosso
Federal
District
Goiás
Regions
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso Espírito Santo
North do Sul
São Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
Northeast
Paraná
Midwest
Santa Catarina
Southeast Rio Grande

do Sul
South
Distribution of Voters
% of the
Number of voters State Voters
population
São Paulo 32,547,128 22.3%
Minas Gerais 15,591,702 10.7%
Rio de Janeiro 12,297,017 8.4%
Bahia 10,560,647 7.2%
Rio Grande do Sul 8,331,954 5.7%
Paraná 7,952,079 5.4%
Pernambuco 6,525,709 4.5%
Ceará 6,342,906 4.3%
Pará 5,506,454 3.8%
Santa Catarina 5,002,468 3.4%
Maranhão 4,591,041 3.1%
Goiás 4,494,860 3.1%
Paraíba 2,895,551 2.0%
Espírito Santo 2,703,862 1.9%
Rio Grande do Norte 2,403,737 1.6%
Piauí 2,348,498 1.6%
Amazonas 2,336,124 1.6%
Mato Grosso 2,248,286 1.5%
20 to 35 million Alagoas 2,124,080 1.5%
Federal District 1,997,148 1.4%
15 to 20 million
Mato Grosso do Sul 1,858,090 1.3%
10 to 15 million Sergipe 1,530,167 1.0%
5 to 10 million Rondônia 1,149,738 0.8%
Tocantins 1,000,299 0.7%
Less than 5 million
Acre 535,660 0.4%
Amapá 485,746 0.3%
Abroad 444,790 0.3%
Roraima 325,085 0.2%
Brazil 145,686,036 100%
Income and Job Creation by State
GDP per capita (BRL)* Job creation by State in 2017**
BRL 40.000 to 45.000 -1.5% to -0.35%

BRL 35.000 to 40.000 -0.35% to -0.30%
BRL 25.000 to 35.000
-0.30% to -0.20%
BRL 15.000 to 25.000
-0.20% to -0.10%
BRL 5.000 a 15.000
-0.10% to 0.20%
*Numbers of 2014, the latest available
** Net formal job creation over the last 12months up to Aug-17 as percentage of the local total population
Source: IBGE , Ministry of Labor and Employment
3. The previous election
2014 election: 2nd round result
Official Result – valid votes
Roraima
Amapá
51.6%
48.4% Rio
Amazonas Pará
Maranhão Ceará Grande
do Norte
Paraíba
Piauí
Pernanbuco
Acre Alagoas
Tocantins
Rondônia Sergipe
Bahia
Mato Grosso
Federal
District
Goiás
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso Espírito Santo
do Sul
São Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
Paraná
Dilma Rousseff Aécio Neves
Santa Catarina
Rio Grande
do Sul
Aécio Neves
Dilma Rousseff
2014 Elected Lower House: PMDB and PT hold the most seats
Lower House Members
PMDB 61
PT 57
PP 45
PSDB 45
PSD 39
PR 38
PSB 36
DEM 29
PRB 22
PDT 21
PODE 17
PTB 16
SD 14
PCdoB 12
PSC 10
PPS 9
PHS 7
REDE 4
Others 31
Source: Lower House 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Senate: 54 out of 81 seats (2/3) will be renewed
 PMDB, PSDB and PT are the parties with the most senate seats in play. In relative terms, PT will have
78% of its senators ending their terms in 2018.
Senate members
PMDB 7 16
PSDB 3 8
PT 2 7
PP 1 6
PSB 1 4
PSD 3 1
DEM 3 1
PR 1 3
PODE 2 1
PTB 1 1
PDT 1 1
PCdoB 1
Rede 1
PPS 1
PRB 1
PTC 01
PSC 1
No party
No party 1
0 5 10 15 20 25
Source: Senate Ending term in 2022 Ending term in 2018
2014 elected governors
2014 distribution
RR AP
Elected governors – distribution by party
10
AM PA MA CE RN 9
PI PB
AC PE 8
TO AL
RO SE 7
MT BA
DF 6
GO 5
MG
MS 4
SP 3
PR 2
SC 1
RS 0
1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
PMDB PSDB PT PSB PDT PSD Outros
Others
Source: TSE – Superior Electoral Court, Itaú
2016 municipal elections
Municipal elections
Elected mayors Party ranking (# of

Party change (2012 - elected mayors)
2016)
2012 2016
PMDB 1% 1 1
PSDB 15% 2 2
PSD 9% 4 3
PP 4% 5 4
PSB -5% 6 5
PDT 10% 7 6
PR 8% 10 7
DEM -4% 9 8
PTB -13% 8 9
PT -60% 3 10
Others 30% - -
Source: TSE – Superior Electoral Court, Arko Advice, Itaú
4. Who are the possible candidates?
Main (Possible) Candidates
1. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) – Worker’s Party (PT)
2. Fernando Haddad – Worker’s Party (PT)
3. Geraldo Alckmin – Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB)
4. João Dória – Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB)
5. Jair Bolsonaro – Social Liberal Party (PSL)
6. Ciro Gomes – Democratic Labor Party (PDT)
7. Marina Silva – Sustainability Network (REDE)
8. João Dionísio – New Party (NOVO)
9. Henrique Meirelles – Social Democratic Party (PSD)
10. Rodrigo Maia – Democrats
11. Luciano Huck – no party
12. Joaquim Barbosa – no party

Source: Itaú
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) – Worker’s Party (PT)
Summary
Former trade unionist and metalworker, Lula co-founded the Worker’s Party (PT), and ran for president three times before
achieving victory in 2002. Lula then served twice as the nation’s president until 2010, by when his government achieved a
record high approval rate of 80%. Since then, Lula has remained a political leader, but has not held positions in the
government or Congress.
Place and Date of Birth

Caetés, Pernambuco (October 27, 1945)
Political History – Main Positions

President of the Worker’s Party (PT) (1980-1994)
Federal Lawmaker (PT - São Paulo) (1987-1991)
President of Brazil – 1st term (2003-2006)
President of Brazil – 2nd term (2007-2010)
Political Parties
PT (Worker’s Party) – A member since its foundation
in 1980
Who votes for Lula?
Source: Datafolha 29-30 November
Fernando Haddad – Worker’s Party (PT)
Summary
Fernando Haddad is a Brazilian academic and politician. Having started his career as a Social Science university
professor, he became chief of staff to the Finance Secretary of the city of São Paulo, and then special advisor to the
Ministry of Planning. Haddad was Minister of Education for 7 years during Lula and Dilma’s governments, and mayor of
São Paulo from 2013 to 2016.
Place and date of birth

São Paulo, São Paulo (January 25, 1963)
Political Background – Highlights

Minister of Education – 1st term (2005 – 2008)
Minister of Education – 2nd term (2008 – 2012)
Mayor of São Paulo (2013 – 2016)
Academic Background
University of São Paulo – Economics, Master
University of São Paulo – Philosophy, Doctorate
University of São Paulo – Law
Political parties
PT (1983 – Present)
Who votes for Haddad?
Geraldo Alckmin – Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB)
Summary
In 2001, São Paulo Governor Mario Covas passed away and was replaced by then Vice-governor Geraldo Alckmin.
Since then, Alckmin has been elected thrice for Governor position (intermittently), a position he still holds today.
Alckmin started his career in the PMDB Party (previously MDB), and was a founder of the PSDB party. In 2006, he lost
the presidential elections to Lula, having obtained 39% of valid votes.

Pindamonhangaba, São Paulo (November 7, 1952)

Mayor of Pindamonhangaba (1977 – 1982)
State lawmaker (PMDB – São Paulo) (1983 – 1987)
Federal lawmaker (PMDB / PSDB – São Paulo) (1987 – 1995)
São Paulo State Governor (2001 – 2006, 2011 – Present)
Academic Background
Medicine, Taubaté University
Political parties
MDB (1972-1979)
PMDB (1979 – 1988)
PSDB (1988 – Present)
Who votes for Geraldo Alckmin?
João Dória – Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB)
Summary
João Dória is a Brazilian politician, businessman and journalist. He headed the federal tourism agency Embratur from
1986 to 1988 during the presidency of José Sarney. In 1992, he founded Grupo Dória, comprised of six companies,
including the Group of Business Leaders (LIDE), which aims to promote and encourage business relationships. For
many years, Dória hosted a TV program focused on business. He is the current Mayor of São Paulo and was the first in
24 years to assume the office after being elected in the first round.

São Paulo, São Paulo (December 16, 1957)

Secretary of Tourism of São Paulo (1983 – 1986)
Mayor of São Paulo (2017 – Present)
Academic Background
Armando Alvares Penteado Foundation - Social Communication
Political parties
PSDB (2011 – Present)
Who votes for João Dória?
Jair Bolsonaro – Social Liberal Party (PSL)
Summary
Jair Bolsonaro is a former military officer who has been in politics since 1989. He served the army for 11 years and has
the army rank of Captain. He has been elected a federal lawmaker by Rio de Janeiro State seven times and was the
congressman who gained the most votes in the general elections of the state of Rio de Janeiro in 2014.

Campinas, São Paulo (March 21, 1955)

City councillor of Rio de Janeiro (1989 -1991)
Federal lawmaker by Rio de Janeiro (1991- Present)
Political parties
PDC (1989 – 1993)
PP (1993)
PPR (1993 – 1995)
PPB (1995 – 2003)
PTB 2003 – 2005)
PFL (2005)
PP (2005 – 2016)
PSC (2016 – 2018)
PSL (2018 – Present)
Who votes for Bolsonaro?
Ciro Gomes – Democratic Labor Party (PDT)
Summary
At age 32, Ciro Gomes became the mayor of Fortaleza, a city in the northeastern state of Ceará, and subsequently
became the governor of that state. Gomes briefly took over the Ministry of Finance under the Itamar Franco administration
in 1994, and ran for president twice (1998 - 3rd place, 2002 - 4th place). Under Lula’s government, Gomes was Minister of
National Integration. He is currently a member of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT).

Pindamonhangaba, São Paulo (November 6, 1957)

State lawmaker (PDS – Ceará) (1983 – 1988)
Mayor of Fortaleza (1989 – 1990)
Governor of Ceará (1991 – 1994)
Finance Minister (1994 – 1995)
Minister of National Integration (2003 – 2006)
Academic Background
Ceará Federal University - Law
Political parties
PDS (1980 – 1983)
PMDB (1983 – 1988)
PSDB (1988 – 1996)
PPS (1996 – 2005)
PSB (2005 – 2013)
PROS (2013 – 2015)
PDT (2015 – Present)
Who votes for Ciro Gomes?
Marina Silva – REDE (Sustainability Network)
Summary
Born in the northern state of Acre, Marina Silva was a member of PT for 23 years, having become Minister of the
Environment during President Lula’s administration. She left the government in 2008, joined the Green Party (PV), and ran
for president in 2010, ending up in the third place, with 19% of valid votes. In 2013, Marina joined the PSB (Brazilian
Socialist Party), becoming vice-presidential candidate to Eduardo Campos. After Campos’ death in an airplane accident,
she was appointed by the PSB to run for president in 2014 and placed third, receiving 21% of votes. Marina has since
been affiliated with Rede Sustentabilidade, a party that she helped found.

Rio Branco, Acre (Feb 8, 1958)
Political Background
City councilor in Rio Branco, Acre (1989-1990)
State lawmaker in Acre (1991-1994)
Senator by Acre (1995-2002, 2003-2011)
Minister of Environment (2003-2008) – Lula’s Administration
Presidential candidate – 2010 & 2014 elections
Academic Background
B.A. in History at Federal University of Acre
Specialization in Psychoanalytical theory at the University of Brasilia
Political parties
PT – Workers Party (1986-2009)
PV – Green Party (2009-2011)
PSB – (2013-2015)
Sustainability Network – (2015 – Present)
Who votes for Marina Silva?
João Dionisio – New Party (NOVO)
Summary
Mr. João Dionisio Filgueira Barreto Amoêdo is on the Board of Directors at João Fortes Engenharia SA and also served
on the board at Banco Itaú BBA SA. In 2011, Mr. Amoêdo co-founded New Party and became its president from 2011 to
2017.

Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro (October 22, 1962)

Co-founder of New Party (NOVO) – (February 22, 2011)
New Party’s President (2011 – 2017)
Academic Background
PUC Rio - Business Management
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro - Civil Engineering
Political parties
NOVO (2011 – Present)
Henrique Meirelles – Social Democratic Party (PSD)
Summary
Henrique Meirelles is currently Brazil's Finance Minister. He has studied Civil Engineering at the Polytechnic School of
USP in São Paulo, and has an MBA in Business Administration from the Coppead Institute of the Federal University of
Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ). He was president of the Brazilian Central Bank from January 2003 to November 2010. Prior to
taking over the Central Bank, Meirelles was the global president of BankBoston. He has also joined the board of Harvard
Kennedy School of Government and the Sloan School of Management at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology). In
2002, he was elected a federal deputy, a position which he gave up in order to head the Central Bank.

Anápolis, São Paulo (August 31, 1945)

Congressman (PSDB) (2002 – 2003)
Central Bank Governor (2003 – 2010)
Academic Background
B. A. in Civil Engineering at USP
MBA in Business Administration at Coppead Institute (UFRJ)
Advanced Management Program (AMP) at Harvard Business School
Political parties
PSDB (2002-2003)
Independent (2003-2011)
PSD (2011-present)
Rodrigo Maia – Democrats (DEM)
Summary
Rodrigo Maia is a Brazilian politician who serves as the Speaker of the Lower House of Brazil since July 2016. He is
currently first in the line of succession to the presidency after former vice president Michel Temer became president on
August 31 2016. In 1997, Maia was named Secretary of Government of the City of Rio de Janeiro and in 1998 he was
elected to the Lower House, remaining there until today.

Santiago, Chile (June 12, 1970)
Academic Background
University of Candido Mendes, Economics (not completed).

Democrats (DEM) (2003-present)
Luciano Huck – no party
Summary
Luciano Huck is a TV host celebrity on Brazilian network Rede Globo, with an audience of about 18 million people per
episode. In addition to his career in the entertainment industry, Huck founded Joá Investments, an investment fund
focused on technology and lifestyle start-up companies.

São Paulo, São Paulo (September 03, 1971)
Academic Background
University of São Paulo, Law
Joaquim Barbosa – no party
Summary
Joaquim Barbosa is a former Justice of the Supreme Federal Court in Brazil. He served as the president of the court
(Chief Justice) between 2012 and 2014.

Paracatu, Minas Gerais (October 07, 1954)
Academic Background
University of Brasilia , Law (1979)
Université de Paris II, Law – Master (1990)
Université de Paris II, Law – Doctorate (1993)

Minister of the Supreme Federal Court (2003-2014)
5. The polls
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
01/02
03/02
Macro Research •
04/02
05/02
05/02
06/02
06/02
07/02
Rejection rates
07/02
2002
07/02
Ciro Gomes
08/02
08/02
08/02
08/02
09/02
09/02
10/02
10/02
01/06
02/06
Alckmin
03/06
05/06
06/06
07/06
2006
07/06
08/06
Source: Datafolha, Ibope and Census, Vox Populi , Paraná Pesquisas

08/06
09/06
09/06
09/06
Marina
05/09
09/09
12/09
03/10
04/10
Rejection rates
06/10
2010
07/10
08/10
08/10
Dória 09/10
09/10
10/10
10/13
04/14
06/14
07/14
Lula
07/14
08/14
09/14
2014
09/14
09/14
09/14
10/14
10/14
10/14
02/16
04/16
Bolsonaro
12/16
2018
06/17
Datafolha, 2,771 interviewees, June 21-23, 2% margin of error
42
Rejection rates – a closer look – Datafolha Poll
 Datafolha: “In which of these candidates... you wouldn’t vote in any way in the first round of the 2018
presidential elections?”
Rejection Rates (Datafolha)

60
50
40 39
30
28
24
22
20
10
23-Jun-17
28-Sep-17
30-Nov-17
27-Apr-17
18-Mar-16
15-Jul-16
25-Feb-16
8-Dec-16
8-Apr-16
Geraldo Alckmin Lula Marina Silva Jair Bolsonaro Ciro Gomes João Dória
Datafolha, 2,771 interviewees, November 29-30, 2% margin of error

Source: Datafolha, Ibope and Census, Vox Populi , Paraná Pesquisas
Rejection rates – a closer look – Ibope Poll
 Ibope: “ For each of these possible presidential candidates I would like you to say which of these
sentences best describe your opinion on he/her: (...) (1) I’d definetely vote for him , (2) I could vote for
him , (3) I’d not vote for him at all, (4) I don’t know he/she enough to say
70 Rejection Rates (Ibope)
60
54
50 51
50
49
42
40
36
30
20
25/abr/16
27/abr/17
22/fev/16
Geraldo Alckmin Lula Marina Silva Jair Bolsonaro Ciro Gomes João Doria
Source: Ibope
Voting intentions x rejection
Voting intention x Rejection in Elections

70%
Lula 2002 Lula 2006

Lula 2017
60% FHC 1994
FHC 1998
Dilma 2010
Voting intentions
Dilma 2014
50%
Aécio 2014 Serra 2010
Dória 2017
40% Bolsonaro 2017
Alckmin 2006 Alckmin 2017
Serra 2002
30% Lula 1998
Lula 1994
20%
10%
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Data for previous elections Rejection
Data for 2017 potential candidates - September’s Datafolha poll and excludes blank,nulls and undecideds
Source: Ibope, Datafolha , TSE
5.1 Datafolha poll tracker
Overview
Lula remains on top, Bolsonaro on the rise as Marina falls
40
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin Scenario without Lula
25
35
34
35 21
22
30 30 20
30 20
17
26
16
24
25 23 23 23 23
22 22 15 16
20
20 18
17 17 17 17
16 16
15 12
14 14 10
15 13
12 10
11 9 9
9 9
10 8 8 8 8 8
7 5
6 6 6
5 3 3
8
5 7 7 2
6 6 6 6 6
5
4
0 0
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
17-Dec-15
25-Feb-16
18-Mar-16
08-Apr-16
15-Jul-16
08-Dec-16
27-Apr-17
23-Jun-17
28-Sep-17
30-Nov-17
Geraldo Alckmin Fernando Haddad

Geraldo Alckmin Lula Marina Silva
Marina Silva Jair Bolsonaro
Jair Bolsonaro Ciro Gomes Ciro Gomes
The last poll: Datafolha (Nov 29-30)
Scenario 1 – 1st Round Scenario 2 – 1st Round
With Geraldo Alckmin, without Doria Without Lula, without Doria
Lula 34%
Marina Silva 16%
Jair Bolsonaro 17%
Jair Bolsonaro 21%
Marina Silva 9%
Geraldo Alckmin 9%
Geraldo Alckmin 6%
Ciro Gomes 12%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Fernando Haddad 3%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
Blank/Null 12%
Blank/Null 25%
Undicided 2% Undicided 3%
Scenario 3 – 1st Round

With Doria, without Lula
Marina Silva 17%
Jair Bolsonaro 21%
Ciro Gomes 13%
João Dória 6%
Fernando Haddad 3%
Blank/Null 27%
Undicided 3%
Macro Research • Datafolha, 2,771 interviewees, November 29-30, 2% margin of error 49

Spontaneous Survey
64
62
60
52
50 48 48
46
40
30
19 18 19
20
15 16
14 15
17
11
9 8 9
10 7
6
3 3
1 1 1 1 1
0 1
1
15-Jul-16 8-Dec-16 27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Lula Marina Silva Bolsonaro Ciro Gomes João Dória Don't know Blank / Null Geraldo Alckmin
Rejection Rates – First Round
Rejection rates
Lula 39%
Jair Bolsonaro 28%
Geraldo Alckmin 27%
Fernando Haddad 22%
Ciro Gomes 22%
Marina Silva 24%
João Dória 22%
Vote for any/no rejection 3%
Wouldn't vote in any 1%
Rejection rates – Time Series
Rejection Rates (Datafolha)

60
50
40 39
30
28
24
22
20
10
23-Jun-17
28-Sep-17
30-Nov-17
27-Apr-17
18-Mar-16
15-Jul-16
25-Feb-16
8-Dec-16
8-Apr-16
Geraldo Alckmin Lula Marina Silva Jair Bolsonaro Ciro Gomes João Dória
Voting Intentions by region
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by region
30
Southeast - 43% of total Northeast - 27% of total
60 57
27
53
25 50
25 50 47
20 20 20 20
20 40
17
16
16
15 14 30
15
10
12
10 20
10 11 14
13
6 6 6 11
9 9 10
4 10 8
5 6 6
6 5
5
0 0 2 2
27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 1
30-Nov-17
27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Datafolha, 2,771 interviewees, November 29-30, 2% margin of error0
30 South - 15% of total 35 Midwest - 8% of total

27
25 29
24 30
25
26 26
21 24
20 25
20 22 22
21
17
16 20
15 17
15 14 14
12
15 16 13
12
10 9 10
8
10
7 7
5 6 6
74
5 6 5 6
52
5
4 4
2
0 0
27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17 27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
North - 7% of total
40 38 38
36
35
35
30
25 23
20
20 18
17
16
14
15
12
10
10
6
5 5
5 7
3
5 5 5
0
27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by region
Southeast - 43% of total Northeast 27% of total

25
35
23
22
20 30
29
19 19 28
17 25
15 15
14
20
13
18
16
10 10 15 15
13
8
11
10
5 7
4 4
3 5 5
4
3
2 2
0 0
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
South - 15% of total Midwest - 8% of total

25 30
22 27
25 25
20 20
18 18 22
17
20 20
15 18
17
15
13
10 10
10 10
7 8
7
5 6
4 4 5
3
3
2 2 2
1 1
0 0
North - 7% of total
35
33
30
27
25 25
24
21
20
15
14
10 10
8 8 8
7
5
2
1 1
0
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Voting Intentions by income
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by income
50 Up to 2 minimum wages - 43% of total From 2 - 5 minimum wages - 39% of total

30
45
45 28 28
40 43 25
22
39 39 24 24 21
35 20
20
18
30
18
25 15 16
20
16 16
14 10 11
15 8 8 8
12 10
10 11 7
9
10 5 5
7 7
7 5 6
6 95
5
6
5
4
0 3
0
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by income
35 From 5 - 10 minimum wages - 11% of total 35 More than 10 minimum wages - 4% of total
30 29 29
28 30
26 27
25
25 25
22
21
19 20
20 18 18 20 19
17
15
15 15 14 14
13
11 11 11
10 12 10
10 9 10
8 8 8 10 9
7 7
9
8 8 8
5 7 7
5
5 5
0 0
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by income
30 Up to 2 minimum wages - 43% of total 30 From 2 – 5 minimum wages (39% of total)
26
28 25
25 26 25
20
20 20
17 20
19
15 16 15 16
12
11 14 11
10 10
10 9 10
10
9 9 9 9
5 5 4 4
3
2 2
1
0 0
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by income
From 5 – 10 minimum wages (11% of total) More than 10 minimum wages (4% of total)
35 35
30 30 29
31
30 27
25 25
24 21
20 20
16
15 15
14
15 13 15
11 13
13 13
10 8 10 11
11
7 9
6
5 7 5 7
6
5 5
4
3
0 0
Voting Intentions by municipality size
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by municipality size
Up to 50k inhabitants (30% of total) From 50 – 200k inhabitants (22% of total)

50 40
45
35
45 36 36
40
41
39
30
31
35
25
30
25 20 18
17 17
20
16 15 16 13
15
15 12 12 10
10 8
9 7
10 7
8 6
5 5
5
5 5
5 4
4 3
0 0
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by municipality size
From 200- 500k inhabitants (16% of total) More than 500k inhabitants (33% of total)
35 35
30
31
30 30
27
27 25
25 25
22 20
21
20 20 18
17
18 18
15
16
15 15
13 11
12 10
11
10 10
7 7 8
7
6 6 7
5 5 6
3 4
0 0
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by municipality size
Up to 50k inhabitants (30% of total) From 50 – 200k inhabitants (22% of total)

30 30
26 26
25 25 24
23
22
20 19 20 19
17
16
15 15 15
15 15
11
10 10 10
10 10
8
10 10 10
9
8
5 5
3
2 2 2 2
1
0 0
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by municipality size
From 200- 500k inhabitants (16% of total) More than 500k inhabitants (33% of total)
25 25
22 22
21
23
20 22
20 19 20 21
19
18
15 14 16
15
13
12
11
12 10 9
10
9 9
9 9 8
5 4 4
5 3
3 3
2
0
0 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Voting Intention by education level
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by education level
Basic (33% of total) High School (45% of total)

60 35
33
50 31
30
50 29
46 28
25
39
40 38 22
21 21
20
17
30
15
20
14 15 10
7
11 6 6
10
9 9 5
10
6 6
5 5 5
6 4 4
6
7
6 6
5 4
0 0
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin - by education level
University Degree (21% of total)

25
23
22
21 21
20 20
18 18 18
15 15
13
12
11
10
9
7 7 7 7
6
5
0
27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by education level
Basic (33% of total) High School (45% of total)

30 30
26 26 26
25 25 25
24
22 22
20 20
17
15 15 15
14
13
12
11
10 10 10 10
9 9 9
8 8
7
5 5
3 3
2 2 2 2
0 0
Scenario with Haddad and Alckmin - by education level
University Degree (21% of total)

30
25 25 25
20 20
18
15 15
13
12
10 10
8
7 7
5 5
4 4
0
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Voting Intentions – Second Round
Datafolha second-round voting intention polls (November 29-30)
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin – 2nd Round Scenario with Lula and Bolsonaro – 2nd Round
Lula 52% Lula 51%
Jair
Geraldo 33%
30% Bolsonaro
Alckmin
Undecided or
16%
Undecided or Blank/Null
18%
Blank/Null
Scenario with Marina and Bolsonaro – 2nd Round
Marina Silva 46%
Jair
32%
Bolsonaro
Undecided or
22%
Blank/Null
Second-round voting intention polls
Scenario with Lula and Alckmin – 2nd Round Scenario with Lula and Bolsonaro – 2nd Round
55 52 55
50 51
50 46 45 47
45
43 45
45
38 38 40
40 36
34
35 32 32 35 32 33 33
29 30
30 30
25 25
15-Jul-16 8-Dec-16 27-Apr-17 23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Geraldo Alckmin Lula Jair Bolsonaro Lula
Scenario with Marina and Bolsonaro – 2nd Round

51 49
47 46
46
41
36
32
31 29
27
26
23-Jun-17 28-Sep-17 30-Nov-17
Jair Bolsonaro Marina Silva
Macro Research • Datafolha, 2,771 interviewees, November 29-30, 2% margin of error 78

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Macro Research

2018 Elections Guide

01 Rules of the game and electoral timeline.

02 Who is the Brazilian voter?

03 The previous election.

04 Who are the possible candidates?

5.1. Datafolha poll tracker

 Voting is compulsory between ages 18 and 70.

 All ballots are electronic.

 TV and radio debates are allowed.

Source: Constitution, Electoral Code , TSE – Superior Electoral Court

Summary of changes introduced by the political reform

Source: Itaú, Lower House, Senate

April July/August October

Source: TSE – Superior Electoral Court

Opinion Questions (% that agree with the propositions)

Economic Questions (% that agree with the propositions)

Labor laws protect more Government should be the

Main Problems of the country (%)

Source: Datafolha - Behavior Poll / July

Southeast Rio Grande

GDP per capita (BRL)* Job creation by State in 2017**

BRL 40.000 to 45.000 -1.5% to -0.35%

Official Result – valid votes

Source: TSE – Superior Electoral Court

Source: Lower House 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Source: TSE – Superior Electoral Court, Itaú

Elected mayors Party ranking (# of

Source: TSE – Superior Electoral Court, Arko Advice, Itaú

1. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) – Worker’s Party (PT)

2. Fernando Haddad – Worker’s Party (PT)

3. Geraldo Alckmin – Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB)

4. João Dória – Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB)

5. Jair Bolsonaro – Social Liberal Party (PSL)

6. Ciro Gomes – Democratic Labor Party (PDT)

7. Marina Silva – Sustainability Network (REDE)

8. João Dionísio – New Party (NOVO)

9. Henrique Meirelles – Social Democratic Party (PSD)

10. Rodrigo Maia – Democrats

11. Luciano Huck – no party

12. Joaquim Barbosa – no party

Place and Date of Birth

Political History – Main Positions

Source: Datafolha 29-30 November

Place and date of birth

Political Background – Highlights

Source: Datafolha 29-30 November

Place and date of birth

Political Background – Highlights

Source: Datafolha 29-30 November

Place and date of birth

Political Background – Highlights

Source: Datafolha 29-30 November

Place and date of birth

Political Background – Highlights

Source: Datafolha 29-30 November

Place and date of birth

Political Background – Highlights

Source: Datafolha 29-30 November

Place and date of birth

Source: Datafolha 29-30 November

Place and date of birth

Political Background – Highlights

Place and date of birth