http://www.nrcan.gc.

ca/forests/climate-
change/tools-resources/18372

Climate Change Uncertainty

1. What is uncertainty?
Uncertainty is having limited knowledge about an existing state or a future
outcome. In the context of forest management, there is uncertainty about how
much the climate will change and when and where the impacts will be felt in
forest ecosystems and the forest sector. Although it is impossible to know the
future, research can help increase our understanding by
exploring plausible future states. People make decisions every day with
incomplete information. The Forest Change indicators and adaptation tools have
been developed to provide information to enable better decision-making for forest
management in an uncertain future.

“Uncertainty is what keeps me up at night.” – Forest sector executive

“Uncertainty motivates me to do more research!” – Scientist

2. What are the main sources of uncertainty?

Key sources of uncertainty in climate change research include:

o Natural variability – The Earth’s climate is a complex and dynamic system

that varies naturally over months, years and decades. Climate change is
causing a shift in the average climate variables, and greater extremes are
being observed, outside the historical range of natural variability.
o Greenhouse gas emissions (forcing) scenarios – The Earth’s climate is
affected by the concentration of greenhouse gases. The Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios represent the combined
radiative forcing that contributes to global warming. The lowest forcing
scenario, RCP 2.6, means that the total forcing will be 2.6 watts per
square metre added to the average solar radiation the earth receives each
day. One of the greatest uncertainties in future climate projections
involves human behaviour and how it will affect future levels of
greenhouse gases. This is why several future scenarios must be
considered.
o Data – Canada is a vast country with many remote areas, so it is
challenging to maintain data collection sites and gather enough samples
to define reality completely.
 o Models – Models can help researchers understand climate, forest and
human systems. However, since these systems are complex, many
assumptions and approximations are required, leading to uncertainty in
model results.
3. What are the limitations of the systems modelled here?
Each type of model has limitations, because it is trying to represent a complex
system. But projections can still help researchers develop plausible future
scenarios:

o Climate system – Climate models use simplified mechanistic

representations of the complex behaviour and interactions of the climate
system, and therefore provide an imperfect representation of reality.
o Forest system – Biophysical impact models are used to assess how the
forest and forest ecosystems will adapt to new conditions. In addition to
the uncertainty of climate projections, there is uncertainty as to how the
ecosystems will react to these changes.
o Human system – Uncertainty increases from greenhouse gas emissions to
climate projections to biophysical impacts to socio-economic implications.
While researchers continue to learn more about climate change and its
potential implications, it is difficult to model how humans will adapt.
4. Can these sources of uncertainty be reduced?
Sources of uncertainty can be reducible or irreducible. Uncertainty related to
natural variability is irreducible because of the chaotic nature of the global
atmosphere. This is why weather forecasts are never completely correct, and
their accuracy falls off rapidly over a period of two or three days. In theory, the
uncertainty around greenhouse gas emission scenarios can be reduced, but this
requires humans to take action on a global scale. Continued research can help
minimize reducible sources of uncertainty, such as data and modelling; however,
research takes time and does not eliminate uncertainty. The impact of
uncertainty can be minimized through different management approaches, such
as exploring a range of plausible future scenarios.
5. How can these sources of uncertainty be minimized?
Understanding the causes of uncertainty can help guide actions to reduce its
impact. Depending on the source, there are different practices that help minimize
uncertainty:

o Natural variability – Since natural variability will always exist, it is common

practice to average projections over longer time frames and larger
geographic regions, so that general trends become more apparent.
Annual average climate estimates will show greater variability than 10- or
30-year averages. In contrast to weather forecasting, climate forecasting
looks at long-term (typically 30-year) averages and tracks how these
average climate variables change over time.
 o Greenhouse gas emissions (forcing) scenarios – To account for
uncertainty in human behaviour, results on the Forest Change website are
presented using three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) forcing scenarios: RCP 2.6 represents rapid emissions
reductions, RCP 4.5 moderate emissions reductions, and RCP 8.5
continued emissions increases. Since the likelihood of each scenario is
unknown, it is important to consider the range of projections resulting from
all three scenarios. In short, RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios can be
envisioned as lower and upper uncertainty bounds for plausible climate
scenarios.
o Data – To minimize uncertainty in data, quality control and statistical
analyses are applied to identify and account for outliers. Careful use of
interpolation techniques helps provide information for areas between data
points. Over time, the use of new technologies may help increase data
availability and quality.
o Models – In order to decrease model bias, it is best practice to use more
than one model to get a range of plausible results. The spread among
model results allows some quantification of uncertainty. If only one model
is used, researchers can conduct sensitivity analyses to see how much
model results change with different inputs and assumptions.
6. What is certain?
The climate is changing; there have been and will continue to be impacts on
forests. The historical data presented in the Forest Change indicators show
trends. Combined with the biophysical impact model projections, there is
reasonable certainty about the types of events to expect in the future. For
example, insect outbreaks, such as mountain pine beetle, and increases in
wildland fires have already been observed and have been related to generally
warmer (and drier) conditions. The maps in the Forest Change indicators can be
used to determine the general types of impacts to expect in specific areas. It
isn’t possible to be certain about precisely where and when these impacts will
occur or their magnitude, but it is certain that forests are becoming more
exposed, and potentially vulnerable, to a range of impacts. The vulnerability of
forest ecosystems and the forest sector to these impacts depends on human
understanding of and capacities to manage these risks and uncertainties.
7. What is the relationship between uncertainty and risk?
From a decision-making standpoint, it may be practical to view uncertainty in
terms of risk. Risk is described as the probability of the event times the severity
of the impact of that event. Even if there is uncertainty about the likelihood of an
event, the added dimension of its severity if it does occur can help prioritize
actions and resources. For example, it is never certain that a large wildland fire
will occur at a specific place during a given period, but in areas prone to
increased fire probability, the negative social and economic consequences could
justify substantial investment in fire-proofing, fire-prevention and fire suppression
resources. In other regions, where the values at risk do not include safety of
humans and infrastructure, a different management approach may be applied.
8. Is it okay to wait until uncertainty decreases before taking action?
Some people feel that uncertainty is a reason for inaction. However, there will
always be a degree of uncertainty about future events. Even with additional
research, many uncertainties will remain. There is also a cost associated with
inaction. For the forest sector, some decisions and actions may be appropriate
now in anticipation of future climate change, but care is needed to ensure that
the decision is appropriate for the wide range of climates that are still possible in
future decades. One way to take action even with uncertainty is to explore “no
regrets” adaption options, or actions that are beneficial under a wide range of
plausible future scenarios.

“Uncertainty is the most significant challenge, but it is not a reason to avoid

action.”
(Lemprière et al., 2008, p. 36)

9. How can forest management decisions be made in an uncertain future?

Even with uncertainty, there are many ways to inform decision-making and guide
climate change adaptation. For example:

o Draw on expert opinion and the experiences of others

 Experts who have developed models have a general sense of how
much projections fluctuate based on different inputs and
assumptions. The indicators and adaptation tools presented on the
Forest Change website have links to key contacts, who may offer
opinions on applying model results.
 Groups involved in adaptation measures, such as the Forestry
Adaptation Community of Practice, offer online forums so that
members can share their experiences in adaptation planning and
implementation.
o Conduct a vulnerability assessment and develop local scenarios
 Projections of climate change and forest impacts, found on
the Forest Change website, can be used to determine potential
impacts in a specific region. This can become part of a vulnerability
assessment. The projections can also be used to help create local
scenarios.
 The Canadian Council of Forest Ministers (CCFM) has developed
a guidebook to walk users through the steps of a vulnerability
assessment. Data and projections from the Forest Change website
can be used to fill in the guidebook worksheets.
o Explore adaptation options, particularly “no regrets” options that will bring
net benefits regardless of what may happen in the future. There are
several sources for adaptation options relevant to the forest industry, to
get you started:
  The Forest Change website contains a database of adaptation
options.
 The CCFM guidebook lists adaptation options in Appendix 5.
 The Forestry Working Group of the Adaptation Platform produced
a Compendium of Forestry Adaptation Initiatives across Canada.

Sources
Charron, I. 2014. A guidebook on climate scenarios: Using climate information
to guide adaptation research and decisions. Ouranos (Consortium on Regional
Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change).
Hawkins, E., and Sutton, R. 2009. The potential to narrow uncertainty in
regional climate predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society 90, 1095–1107.
Lemprière T.C., Bernier, P.Y., et al. 2008. The importance of forest sector
adaptation to climate change (Information Report NOR-X-416E). Edmonton,
AB: Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service.
Price, D.T., and Isaac, K.J. 2015. Adapting sustainable forest management to
climate change: A comprehensive report on scenarios for vulnerability
assessment (Information Report NOR-X-422E).Edmonton, AB: Natural
Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service.

Climate Modelling
1. Why is climate modelling important?
Climate modelling helps increase understanding of climate change and supports
planning and decision-making to adapt to potential impacts. Since data and
observations about the future are not available, climate modelling provides a
sense of the expected range of future climate.
2. Which climate model should I use?
Numerous climate models have been developed by research groups around the
world. There is no particular model that is known to be more accurate than the
others, and there is uncertainty associated with all climate models. One way to
deal with this uncertainty is to explore projections from a variety of models and
then use the range of results to support planning and decision-making. This
means finding adaptation options that would be effective over the range of
plausible futures derived from a suite of models, rather than planning for the
“best-case scenario” from one model.
3. What sources of uncertainty are associated with climate modelling?
In addition to the uncertainty associated with each model, there is uncertainty
due to natural climate variability, which is important for short-term planning, and
uncertainty related to greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which have a greater
 influence in long-term planning. Before using climate data, it is important to
understand the limitations and uncertainty associated with the data. Further
information on uncertainty can be found in the Climate Change Uncertainty FAQ.
4. What climate modelling and data are available here?
o Historical:
 Long-term (30-year) mean climate grids for North America
 Monthly climate grids for North America for each year starting from
1901. View average monthly means of maximum temperature,
minimum temperature or precipitation for each year, as well as
other climatic variables
o Point estimates:
 Daily – Generate daily climate estimates (maximum temperature,
minimum temperature or precipitation) for locations anywhere in
Canada or the United States from 1951 to 2013
 Monthly – For a given location, generate monthly averages, long-
term averages or model projections
o Climate change scenarios: View maps of model projections for short-,
medium- and long-term 30-year averages (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–
2100) on primary variables such as minimum temperature, maximum
temperature and precipitation, as well as other bioclimatic variables such
as start and end of growing season
o Downscaled climate projections: Download data (maximum temperature,
minimum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, surface wind speed
and water vapour) from four different climate models in ASCII or NetCDF
format for further research, analysis and modelling
Models Available
 Canadian Earth System Model, second-generation (CanESM2)
 Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Earth System
Model, chemistry coupled version (MIROC-ESM-CHEM)
 Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2, earth systems
model (HadGEM2-ES)
 Community Earth System Model, version 1; Community
Atmospheric Model, version 5 (CESM1-CAM5)

Adaptation Options
1. Why is adaptation important?
Although forests have been naturally adapting to a changing climate, the rate of
change is increasing and forests may not be able to keep up and continue to
provide society with desired goods and services, such as timber and biodiversity.
For example, as discussed in detail in Climate change vulnerability and
adaptation in the managed Canadian boreal forest, effects of climate change on
the boreal forest include:
 o an increase in the frequency of disturbances
o changes in forest productivity, which vary from one region to the next
o variability of the timber supply
o a decrease in the socio-economic resilience of forest communities
o a resurgence of issues related to the health and safety of these
communities
2. How does adaptation fit within forest management planning?
Adaptation can be integrated as part of the regular forest management planning
process. Research on climate change impacts can help guide future forest
management planning. Adaptation actions can be reactive, taking place after an
impact has occurred, or proactive, based on projected impacts. Currently, most
adaptation actions in the forest sector are reactive. But proactive adaptation can
be advantageous in helping to reduce risks. Since trees mature over decades, it
is important to consider adaptation options in light of both current and projected
climate conditions. In order to reduce future risks, it is important that decisions be
made now.
3. What are adaptation options?
Adaptation options include a range of actions that can be implemented to reduce
vulnerabilities or explore opportunities related to climate change. Adaptation
options can be implemented within the forest (biophysical) or the forest sector
(human). Forest sector adaptations could include making changes to forest
policies, practices or operations.
4. Is there a process for exploring adaptation options?
Conducting a vulnerability assessment, either formally or informally, can help
identify vulnerabilities and opportunities. The database of adaptation options can
then be used to view a range of possible actions organized by general or detailed
vulnerability.

Figure 1. The vulnerability assessment diagram (from Gauthier et al. © Canadian Science
Publishing or its licensors)
 For example, in the boreal forest, significant changes in temperature and
precipitation are forecast (Exposure); this can translate into a change in fire
regime affecting the forest (Sensitivity). An increase in fire activity can affect
forest composition or timber supply availability, or increase smoke emissions
around communities (Impacts). As boreal forests are disturbance-dominated
systems, species have the ability to adjust to these changes in fire activity; forest
management can also adjust by increasing salvage logging (Adaptive capacity).
Locally, large-scale disturbances may create a shortage in timber supply
(Vulnerability). At the same time, an increase in demand for bioenergy can
provide new markets for residual biomass (Opportunity).
5. How is the database of adaptation options organized?
The database is organized into the biophysical and human subsystems, three
target areas of adaptation (reducing stressors, reducing sensitivity, and
enhancing adaptive capacity), and both general and detailed vulnerabilities. The
list can be filtered by typing key words from one of those categories.
Alternatively, it can be filtered with desired search words, such as fire or drought.
The arrows at the top of each column can be used to sort results alphabetically.
The references in the final column give links to the articles that originally cited the
given adaptation options. As well, the entire list of references and related
adaptation options can be viewed by clicking “View adaptation options by
reference.”

Mapping the occurrence of Canada’s forest

pathogens
1. What is the forest pathogen database?
For over 60 years, the Canadian Forest Service collected data on the observed
location of forest fungi and mistletoes through its Forest Insect and Disease
Survey (FIDS); since about 1995, these data have been collected by provincial
and territorial governments. The data come from both ground observations and
aerial overviews. To preserve this wealth of information and make it accessible, it
has been formatted into an electronic database. Users can access data and
maps for almost 3000 forest fungi and mistletoes (plus about 8000 insects) at
CFS-NRCan’s Pest Strategy Information System (PSIS) web portal.
2. Why is forest pathology important?
Forest pathology includes the study of biotic diseases, such as those caused by
fungi, bacteria, viruses, nematodes and mistletoes. Forest pathologists also
investigate abiotic stressors, such as drought, frost, pollutants, temperature
extremes and high winds. Although forest diseases and their impacts are not as
visible or immediate as those caused by some other disturbances, such as
insects and fire, economic losses from tree diseases are estimated to be higher
than those from insects and fire combined. Many fungal pathogens cause
 reduced growth of trees. Long-term studies have shown yield reductions in
infected trees. In addition, the presence of forest pathogens often predisposes
trees to damage by additional disturbance agents such as insects. The economic
impact of this loss of productivity may not be felt for decades.
3. Why map pathogen occurrence?
The mapping of pathogens provides an important part of the forest inventory.
Accurate information on the geographical range of forest pathogens is needed to
assess risk, and informs a range of forest management decisions. For example,
when considering adaptation options such as assisted migration, the location of
pathogens can guide decisions on species and planting locations. The location of
forest diseases can also guide harvesting and replanting decisions, such as
removing infected stumps to minimize spread of root disease fungi and planting
resistant host species. In addition, a good base of information on current
pathogen occurrences is essential for tracking the impacts of climate change and
the spread of invasive pathogens.
4. Will the occurrence of forest pathogens change with climate change?
Most plant diseases are strongly influenced by environmental conditions, so
climate change will very likely affect pathogens, hosts and their interactions. As
the climate changes, many abiotic stressors (drought, frost, temperature
extremes and high winds) are also expected to increase. The interactions of
biotic diseases and these stressors may lead to increased disease outbreaks and
forest declines. In addition, the activity of some forest disease agents, such as
dwarf mistletoes, is currently limited by low winter temperatures. Since seasonal
increases in temperature are expected to be greatest during winter, both
overwintering survival of pathogens and disease severity are likely to increase.
Increases in temperature may allow some diseases to expand their latitudinal
and elevational ranges and may facilitate invasion by new non-native pathogens.
5. Can future pathogen occurrence be projected?
Projections are relatively feasible and credible for pathogens whose range or
activities are primarily limited by temperature. It is more difficult to predict how
climate change may affect pathogens dependent on interactions with other
organisms, such as insect vectors. Researchers modelling forest insects and
diseases have used historical and recent field observations and analyzed these
distributions relative to climate to identify areas that would be climatically suitable
for a species. The resulting models show a “climate envelope” where a species
may be found, but do not indicate population levels; the models can be viewed
on the Bioclimatic Mapping of Forest Insects and Diseases web application. In
some cases, the location of potential hosts is also mapped. Information on
climate envelopes for specific pathogens could assist in the planning of
resources for early detection and monitoring.
6. How can the forest pathogen database be used?
 Users can search the database for species of interest and access results in
various ways, including:

o viewing data in a table format (separated into point and polygon data)
o exploring results with an interactive map viewer (see example in Figure 1)
o downloading data for analysis in a GIS

Figure 1: Screen capture of dynamic map for Armillaria ostoyae occurrence for 2014
(zoomed in to the southwest corner of British Columbia). The time slider can be adjusted to
view results for different years.

7. What forest diseases are included in the forest pathogen database?

The database contains distribution maps for almost 3000 forest fungi and
mistletoes, many of which cause forest diseases. Forest diseases can be
classified into the following types: root diseases, stem decays, cankers, wilts,
rusts, foliage diseases, shoot blights, and dwarf and true mistletoes. The
following forest diseases and their causal species are proposed as Canada’s
current Priority Pathogens:

o Native species:
 Armillaria root rot (Armillaria ostoyae)
 Ceratocystis canker (Ceratocystis fimbriata)
 Sphaerulina leaf spot and canker (Davidiella populorum anam. :
Sphaerulina musiva)
 Dothistroma or red banded needle blight (Mycosphaerella pini
anam.: Dothistroma septosporum)
o Invasive species established in Canada:
 Annosus root rot (Heterobasidion irregulare and H. occidentale)
 European larch canker (Lachnellula willkommii)
 Butternut canker (Ophiognomonia clavigignenti-juglandacearum)
 White pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola)
o Invasive species to monitor:
 Bleeding canker of red oaks (Phytophthora ramorum)
 Phytophthora disease of alder (Phytophthora alni)
 Bleeding canker (Phytophthora kernoviae)
 Blue stain disease (Ceratocystis polonica complex (C. laricicola
incl.))
 Oak wilt (Ceratocystis fagacearum)
 Ash dieback (Chalara fraxinea)
 Thousand cankers disease (Geosmithia morbida)
 Spruce rust (Chrysomyxa abietis)
8. How do I access the forest pathogen database?
You can access the forest pathogen database through the Pest Strategy
Information System (PSIS) portal by going to the National Forest Information
 System (NFIS) Access page and clicking on “Account Registration.” Then send
an email to ksg@nrcan-rncan.gc.ca to request access, stating your email
address as your username. When your account has been registered, return to
the Access page, select your jurisdiction and enter your username and
password. Once signed in, you will be redirected to the PSIS Portal. Note: Even if
you have used other NFIS resources, your account has to be registered via the
above email in order to be redirected to the PSIS Portal.
9. How do I navigate the site to find the different map products?
Using either a standard search or an advanced search (which allows filtering by
province, organization, year, latitude and longitude), type the name of species of
interest. The results screen will list point data and polygon data, which you can
view in a dynamic map or download by clicking the buttons at the bottom of the
screen. The dynamic map viewer allows you to adjust the time slider to see
various years and zoom in on a section by pressing Shift and highlighting the
desired area. To view multiple years at the same time, you can download the
desired data for analysis in a GIS.

Canada-Wide Maps of Forest Properties

1. What is the National Forest Inventory (NFI)?
Reliable, current and consistent data are needed for reporting on the state of
Canada’s forests and for tracking forest change and reporting. Authoritative
information on forest change is required to support the development of policy to
address both immediate needs and new and emerging issues, such as climate
change impacts and possible adaptive strategies.
Canada’s National Forest Inventory (NFI) monitors a network of sampling areas
covering 1 percent of Canada’s land mass on an ongoing basis to provide
consistent information on the state and sustainable development of Canada’s
forests. NFI geospatial data has been used to produce a suite of continuous
maps of forest properties.
2. What is the kNN mapping method?
The Canada-wide maps of forest properties were generated using the Nearest
Neighbour (kNN) mapping method, which uses known values of forest properties
from a few locations to estimate the value of those properties at a much larger
number of other locations. In this case, estimates were provided for pixels of
250x250m in size covering Canada’s forests. This cost-effective method has
been widely used by other countries to generate forest maps, and its application
to the NFI data enables the production of continuous maps of forest properties
across Canada.
The maps show statistically interpolated data, not real measurements. The soil
maps (kNN-Soils) are based on soil measurements made in the NFI field plots
 and are documented in Digital mapping of soil properties in Canadian managed
forests at 250 m of resolution using the k-nearest neighbor method. All other
maps are part of the forest properties dataset created from the NFI photoplot
data. Documented limitations of these maps are as follows:

o In general, large values will be underestimated and small ones

overestimated.
o The accuracy of estimates is lower in mountainous regions and areas with
very few trees.
o The pixel-level values are to be used with caution, but estimates improve
when averaged over areas of a square kilometre or greater.

More details can be found in Mapping attributes of Canada’s forests at moderate

resolution through kNN and MODIS imagery.
3. How can the maps be used?
The resolution and accuracy of these map products are best suited to strategic-
level forest reporting and informing policy and decision-making at regional to
national levels. Since these maps also offer a coherent set of quantitative values
for a large suite of forest attributes, they can be used as baseline information for
modelling and in calculations such as merchantable forest volume or percentage
of tree species. It is also possible to overlay these maps with other maps
produced on the same pixel grid to assess disturbance impacts, such as from fire
and harvesting.
4. What kNN mapping tools are available?
There are several mapping tools that use kNN data. The Maps Tool provides
access to different thematic layers that illustrate the distribution of forest data
across the country. The Biomass Calculator Tool estimates the biomass
available, and the Statistical Reports provides access to standard and custom
reports.
No software installation is required. All maps are interactive, allowing users to
zoom in, zoom out and pan around the map. The controls for these actions are
located on the left side of the screen.
5. How can the maps and data be accessed?
The information is available in two formats:

o The web viewer on the NFI website allows quick visualization of key data
described above.
o Raw data files are available for download under “Grouped kNN Map
Layers” and allow additional manipulations using desktop software such
as ArcGIS. Supplementary material can be found in the “Read Me” file.