MATH 3160, SPRING 2013

HOMEWORK #4—SOLUTIONS

JOHANNA FRANKLIN

This assignment will be due on Wednesday, February 27 at the beginning of class. Remember
to show your reasoning and name the classmates you worked with. Answers without work shown
will receive almost minimal credit.

(1) A fair coin is tossed three times. Consider the following events:
• A: Heads on the first toss.
• B: Tails on the second toss.
• C: All three outcomes are the same.
• D: Exactly one head appears.
Which of the following sets of events are independent?
(a) A and B
Solution. Since the coin is fair, we can see that P (A) = P (B) = 21 and that P (A∩B) =
1
4 . Therefore, P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B) and A and B are independent.
(b) A, B, and C
Solution. We see that P (C) = 41 : 2 of the 8 possible sequences of tosses result
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in 3 identical tosses (HHH and TTT). This means that P (A)P (B)P (C) = 16 , but
P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = 0 since it is impossible for A, B, and C to all happen simultaneously.
Therefore, these events are not independent.
(c) A, B, and D
Solution. We see that P (D) = 83 (the outcomes in D are HTT, THT, and TTH).
We look at this list of outcomes again and see one that matches A, so P (A ∩ D) = 18 .
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However, P (A)P (D) = 16 , so A, B, and D are not independent.
(2) Suppose that two fair, six-sided dice are rolled, and one is orange and one is green. Let A
be the event “the orange die is odd,” let B be the event “the green die is odd,” and let C be
the event “the sum of the rolls is odd.” Show that these events are pairwise independent
but not independent. (Hint: make a table showing all the possible combinations of rolls
and their sums.)
Solution. We begin by building this table of sums of roll results:

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2 FRANKLIN

orange/green 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
It is clear that P (A) = P (B) = 12 , and we can look at a table of sums of rolls to see that
P (C) = 12 as well. The table also tells us that P (A ∩ B) = 36 9
, which is P (A)P (B), so A
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and B are independent. The table also tells us that P (A ∩ C) = 36 , which is P (A)P (C), so
A and C are independent. The same reasoning tells us that B and C are, too, so all these
events are pairwise independent. However, P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = 0, and P (A)P (B)P (C) = 81 , so
the triple of events is not independent.
(3) Let E and F be two independent events with P (E) = .4 and P (E ∪ F ) = .64. What is
P (F )?
Solution. We know that for any events E and F , P (E ∪ F ) = P (E) + P (F ) − P (E ∩ F ),
and since E and F are independent, we know that P (E ∩ F ) = P (E)P (F ). This gives us
P (E ∪ F ) = P (E) + P (F ) − P (E)P (F )
.64 = .4 + P (F ) − .4P (F )
.24 = .6P (F )
.4 = P (F ).
(4) Harold takes four courses each semester for eight semesters. In each course, the probability
that Harold will get an A is 12 . You can assume that his grades in different courses are
independent.
(a) What is the probability that in any given semester, Harold will not get an A in every
class?
Solution. We will calculate the probability that Harold will get an A in every class
and subtract that from 1. The probability that Harold will get an A in a given class is
1
2 , and since his grades in the four different classes are independent, the probability that
he will get an A in every class is the product of these probabilities: ( 12 )4 . Therefore,
the probability that he will not get an A in every class is 1 − ( 12 )4 = 15
16 .
(b) What is the probability that Harold will have at least one semester with all As?
Solution. We will calculate the probability that Harold will never have a semester
with all As and subtract that from 1. We found in (a) that the probability that in any
given semester, he will not have all As is 15
16 . The probability that this happens every
semester is the product of these probabilities: ( 15 8
16 ) . Therefore, the probability that
he will have at least one semester with all As is 1 − ( 15 8
16 ) .

Suggested problems: Chapter 3 Problems: 54, 55, 57, 59-62, 64-65; Chapter 3
Theoretical Exercises: 11