January 25, 2018 – Thursday Excel file:

Financial modeling Legend:

Why you should be interested: BLUE – input variables
- Resume BLACK – calculations
- Paid a lot
GREEN – references to other sheets
- Round 2: IRC Simulation subject
company: Instructions: Enable iterative calculations on
Excel
URC (Universal Robina Corporation)
>>>Options . formulas. Enable iterative
- Consumer goods
calculations
- Conflicting issue: high
comsumption, but excise tax on >>> Fn. F2. Ctrl. Enter. Copy formulas
sugar can adversely affect while retaining cell formats.
- Which will have stronger impact?
>>> f4 twice = lock rows ($)
- Growing presence in ASEAN
countries: Vietnam, Thailand, New (Demi, no need to use Fn sayo)
Zealand,
Phases:
Initial prep:
1. forecasting
1. gathering of FS:
2. valuation
- at least 5 years historical
-income statement
2. encoding to excel
Methods of forecasting sales:
- Reuters: source of data in Excel
1. historical method
- morning star
Get the historical growth rate of sales,
Issue: cannot filter data properly
sometimes - Usually: use most recent trends but
still examine if it’s actually
Main source (FS): applicable
a. edge.pse.com.ph - Used for stable companies

b. Go to company website itself then Why not compounded annual growth

convert pdf to Excel file. rate:

-you may use ABBYY FineReader and CAGR = (f/p)^1/n- 1

Adobe Acrobat - can also be used but current growth
rate may already indicate of something
happening in the future so you may be
overestimating growth rate if you use
CAGR. (sorry di ko gets help)
 -can be used for stable companies
2. management forecast
Con: biased towards the upside
3. growth drivers
*Also, AR used in the formula above
should not be net of ADA (Gross AR)
To get A/R: (ACP*Sales)/365
Inventory

- best method  AAI = 365* (inventory / COGS)

- growth driver: what drives the revenues
of this company
ex. Disposable income
- breakdown revenue to examine
different growth drivers per component
of revenue: ex. SM rent, hotels,
residential etc.
Question: Company states it expects COGS
to go down, but they have no measure of the
rate it will go down, how to measure?  use
historical decline, or just estimate
Uity mthod pag joint vntu
 APP = 365* (accounts payable/cogs)
*Actually, it should be purchases but
COGS can be a good approx. of
purchases.
To get inventory: (APP*COGS)/365
- Pp_ sch_dul_
- Pag nakuha na yung adjustment sa
- Intangibls, tas hanappin mo kung
alin yung naaffc sa ibnag shts tas
illink mo 😊)

 Retained Earnings = Earnings of

controlling interest/parent
 NCI = Earnings of non-controlling
interest
Accounts Receivable
 Average Collection Period = 365/AR
Turnover
 AR Turnover = Sales/ending AR
 ACP = 365*(AR/Sales)
*dapat ave but u need more data points
for valuation so just use Ending AR.
*Receivables written BS are not
necessarily AR because it contains other
receivables.
*so, we need to find the trade
receivables through the notes to FS